Just who's job is it to make people aware

[NeilT]

On the arctic melting thread meddoc alluded to the fact that because we're watching, analysing, sharing and reporting, that it should be our job to influence and educate.

It is not our job to influence.  Although we may if we wish engage ourselves in such activities.

Let me expand on my own personal hobby horse about politics, events about our lives and how people respond to them.

Right now the UK is going through a referendum on their membership of the EU.  The vast majority of the people, at least 90%, know absolutely nothing about the EU, it's treaties, how the government works or what the hell they are actually voting for.  The press and the government and all the government controlled institutions are selling a "soft soap" story which combines the best possible view mixed with half truths and outright lies.

How many of the people, confused and unable to choose, actually go to the information, even though they are pointed to it and find out for themselves?

Less than 1% I'd say.

This is something that will impact them directly, immediately, in every walk of daily life, now and for the next 20 - 30 years.

They don't care.  They just want someone to take the decision for them.

Now take that and add it to the Climate Change issue and you realise what kind of battle we are facing.

Most people will not take on that kind of life sucking challenge.  I take my hat off to those who have the conscience and will to do so.

But, please, don't try and present the picture that we need to urgently go out there and lobby our politicians based on the amateur observations of data presented by the professionals.  We will be treated like the people who view the photo's of Mars and believe they spotted Pyramids.

Some of us believe we must and follow that belief.  Others are interested in educating themselves.  Others still are just interested and that is where this site belongs.

[meddoc]

Well. Where to start- maybe with this little tidbit from january 26., 2015.:

http://thebulletin.org/three-minutes-and-counting7938

Remember, these guys are 17 Nobel Laureates engulfing almost all fields of Science & even from Politics to Nuclear Weapons Experts.

They state that 2 imminent dangers facing all of Humanity- in their terms:
"The probability of global catastrophe is very high" due to:

1) "unchecked" Climate Change

2) Nuclear Weapons modernization programmes (developing target- guiding satellites, cruise missiles, ABM- Systems, etc)

That for a start...

[magnamentis]

Some of us believe we must and follow that belief.  Others are interested in educating themselves.  Others still are just interested and that is where this site belongs.

task like that can be done in several ways but rarely by sheer effort of a few.

a) spreading the news until a certain percentage of people get the point and the momentum of mass(group) dynamics start gaining faster and faster

b) catastrophic events that hit a certain percentage of the wealthy and middle class, not 20 houses destroyed in a few tornados but cities with millions of people drowned for example.

the mechanism behind this is the same like with political revolutions. first it takes a certain amount of suffering and citizens that have nothing or little to loose, and then it takes a trigger event.

why am i saying this is because even though i'm with you in that thought i know from own experience as well as from reading simple human history that there is not much we can move, while each one counts to get to the point mentioned in paragraph (a)

[Acts5v29]

Hello NeilT

I understand your - can I say "negative" viewpoint - those in the know should really have listened 20 years ago, and the art of turning a deaf ear has been thoroughly polished and perfected.

[NeilT]

I don't think it's so much negative???

I've been here a looong time.  I've seen my own words presented by Obama, cribbed from Joe Romm's site by Obama's script writers (notably I was defending Obama).  I've been on WUWT and pointed them at their own stupidity and still do that from time to time.

Everyone I talk to I try to get in a reasonable and even look at what we are doing and what the impact is, regardless of what is reported.

But I don't believe that the arctic melting thread is there to call out the politics and I don't believe that this site, even though it's prime goal is education and understanding and awareness, is here for us all to suddenly evangelise and start preaching to the world.

Each to their own.  If we want to then go for it.  I've been ridiculed all over the place and the worst is my own brother.  But I don't stop just because an idiot like Trump wants to use the political spin or because the press want to flip one way and the other just to get more money for their headlines.

I want awareness because I have Grandchildren and they will have Grandchildren and I believe I owe it to them to at least try.  Even if it is 20 years too late.

But that is my own position and I don't assume it should be someone else's.

[Juan C. García]

If you want to spread the message, it is important to focus on groups of people that care about environment (by example) or that they have political force, but they maybe don't have all the information. If you convince the right people, then they will also spreaded the message.
In fact, that is what Neven and others have been doing to us.

[abbottisgone]

On the arctic melting thread meddoc alluded to the fact that because we're watching, analysing, sharing and reporting, that it should be our job to influence and educate.

It is not our job to influence.  Although we may if we wish engage ourselves in such activities.

Let me expand on my own personal hobby horse about politics, events about our lives and how people respond to them.

Right now the UK is going through a referendum on their membership of the EU.  The vast majority of the people, at least 90%, know absolutely nothing about the EU, it's treaties, how the government works or what the hell they are actually voting for.  The press and the government and all the government controlled institutions are selling a "soft soap" story which combines the best possible view mixed with half truths and outright lies.

How many of the people, confused and unable to choose, actually go to the information, even though they are pointed to it and find out for themselves?

Less than 1% I'd say.

This is something that will impact them directly, immediately, in every walk of daily life, now and for the next 20 - 30 years.

They don't care.  They just want someone to take the decision for them.

Now take that and add it to the Climate Change issue and you realise what kind of battle we are facing.

Most people will not take on that kind of life sucking challenge.  I take my hat off to those who have the conscience and will to do so.

But, please, don't try and present the picture that we need to urgently go out there and lobby our politicians based on the amateur observations of data presented by the professionals.  We will be treated like the people who view the photo's of Mars and believe they spotted Pyramids.

Some of us believe we must and follow that belief.  Others are interested in educating themselves.  Others still are just interested and that is where this site belongs.

Why did you have kids?

THERE IS YOUR ANSWER 

[abbottisgone]

If you want to spread the message, it is important to focus on groups of people that care about environment (by example) or that they have political force, but they maybe don't have all the information. If you convince the right people, then they will also spreaded the message.
In fact, that is what Neven and others have been doing to us.

sPRAY PAINT ALL THE BUS STOPS i SAY 

[Neven]

If you want to spread the message, it is important to focus on groups of people that care about environment (by example) or that they have political force, but they maybe don't have all the information. If you convince the right people, then they will also spreaded the message.
In fact, that is what Neven and others have been doing to us.

sPRAY PAINT ALL THE BUS STOPS i SAY 

Aig, I'm also getting annoyed with these one-liners. Could you please try and follow the suggestions in the Forum Decorum thread? Else I'm going to start snipping.

[DoomInTheUK]

In all honesty, what do we gain by making more people aware. The 99.8% of people who can't influence decisions don't care or don't want to be bothered. 0.1% who are capable of influencing have probably already decided it's a fight they can't win. That just leaves us in the final 0.1%, who are interested, and can see what's coming but just have to watch it all happen with the dreaded 'I told you so' feeling.

[mercurybar]

The reason I read this forum is to stay informed on the science.  My friends and family are predominantly well educated left leaning people.  I occasionally try to get them involved.  It never works.  Big Kardashian news, aunt Tammy's son got arrested, new episode of the Bachelor is coming on.  Informing people will do no good.  We have long passed that point.  We are on the Titanic, counting how many inches an hour we are slipping into the sea.  Informing them?  They don't care and what could they do to stop it.  I've moved on.  I look to models of a warmer world and try to recommend to friends and family where they should consider buying property.  In the Unites States that means heading north.  Out of AZ, NM, NV and So. Cal.   Again, it does no good. Nobody wants to hear it.

[Juan C. García]

In all honesty, what do we gain by making more people aware. The 99.8% of people who can't influence decisions don't care or don't want to be bothered. 0.1% who are capable of influencing have probably already decided it's a fight they can't win. That just leaves us in the final 0.1%, who are interested, and can see what's coming but just have to watch it all happen with the dreaded 'I told you so' feeling.

It can be true, but it is also true that I will feel a complete looser If I don't try it.
Whats the point in staying here, chatting with people who call themselves apocalyse4real, abruptSLR, etc., if is not to learn and try to make a change? Can we accept to see the chapter "The Lost Worlds of Planet Earth" from Neil deGrasse Tyson's Cosmos and just do nothing?
I would better live knowing that I'm trying, that just stand there watching it, even if I don´t get any results.

Edit:

And there is people who's job is it to make people aware. If they are not doing well their work, I feel the obligation to let them know that I know.
I invite you to vote in the following poll, just to let them know that we know:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1559.0.html

[magnamentis]

all true and then this not only happens on the topic of climate change. it's like this with everything that does not provide immediate wealth, fun and/or reputation, which is why we are where we are and heading where we're heading.

every mathematician can proof that our monetary system is doomed to fail the day it's (currency) launched and still those who could change things are those who benefit the most from the fail.

it's like a cosmic body in an orbit around another, gravity against velocity (centrifugal force) and either outcome (which force ultimately wins) means doom to the actual system.

politics have to keep up with that doomed system hence the battle is going back and forth with various dominators for a certain period of time (empires and influencers) until they ultimately all des-integrate while
falling into the self made trap (blach hole)

[Bruce Steele]

Juan, +1   I gotta believe there are ways to 1) slow this ship down and 2) it's worth the effort to try.
I have a lot of experience with resource management , fisheries management. Climate change and acidification are currently being included in management discussions and decisions. Part of the reason is  there is pressure being applied by NGO's, resource users( like me ), and a concerted effort by academia to begin to prepare for change. And change isn't just something that may happen in the future it is change already here... And more on the way
 We can be involved politically like the example above and we can begin to prepare a way we can live our individual lives in an attempt to radically reduce our carbon footprint. When we make progress on our individual efforts then I believe the Internet is one way to spread the news and hopefully influence others although that may be difficult to gauge . Finding friends and family that share our energy conservation efforts makes things more rewarding for sure but the real innovations that matter will need to be incorporated into millions of other peoples lives.
 I may be going out on a limb but I think how we challenge ourselves to achieve a low carbon lifestyle is more important than trying to plan for the geographically perfect place to survive climate change outcomes...     
     

[mercurybar]

 I may be going out on a limb but I think how we challenge ourselves to achieve a low carbon lifestyle is more important than trying to plan for the geographically perfect place to survive climate change outcomes...     

Bruce, I do what I can and feel good about doing it.  However, I see that the probable outcome for humanity is poor.  Today the EU is having trouble handling 10 million refugees.  What happens in a decade or two when countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines loose the ability to feed 25% of their population.  How can the world deal with 50, 100, 200 million refugees?

I hope that a genius is sitting in a room somewhere coming up with a way, but I'm not betting on it.  I'm betting on buying smart, sinking my resources into making sure that my children and grandchildren will have an easier go of it in a radically different world.  You may say that is self  serving and I would agree.  I read this forum not to go out and try to make a difference in the world.  Better to smack my head against a wall.  Donald Trump is the American choice for a serious run at the presidency, let's be realistic here.  Today I'm working with a hundred educated left leaning realistic people and you will never guess what they don't want to talk about.  I take it on as my job to try and inform people,  been doing it for years.  I haven't got much to show for my efforts.  Mostly, it feels hopeless.

[Bruce Steele]

Mercurybar, Just moving will not help much if your children and grandchildren insist on perpetuating lifestyle choices that got us into the current impasse. Getting my wife to forego most air travel or putting solar on the roof is probably easier than convincing the next couple generations to take the steps necessary to downsize their expectations. So passing on a love of gardening ,animal husbandry or any number of practical skills may be more important than where you choose to reside. If you have a family willing to collectively plan their future around downsized expectations you have already done your part. Moving to an ideal location might improve your chances.  If on the other hand they are constantly on their I-phones and interested in keeping the new car nice ,and washed once a week ,you will have problems no matter where you live.
I agree our chances are poor. 

   
 

[mercurybar]

Bruce, you just described my plan with never talking to me.  I have an acre on the most remote spot on the planet, on a river, 100 yards (up hill) from the ocean in the wettest watershed on the planet.  We are currently converting the land to a farm with chicken and goats.  I've been learning how to become a better fisherman and trapping crab and lobster.  In the midst of solar conversion.  Major down sizing in our life styles.  Developing a better methane generator, hopeful.  We have greatly reduced our carbon footprint while also becoming more self reliant.  However, while we have done this over the last year the population of the planet has grown by some 50 million. Every week an new coal power plant goes online someplace. More cars, trains and planes.  More deforestation, over-fishing and coral bleaching.  Somebody told me that there might also be some sort of problem in the Arctic.  Humanities chances are poor, I'm trying to make my descendants chances... fair?

[AbruptSLR]

Whats the point in staying here, chatting with people who call themselves apocalyse4real, abruptSLR, etc., if is not to learn and try to make a change?

Juan,

As you cite me by name, I feel entitled to wax philosophically on this issue:

According to science, while climate change is chaotic (like life) it can be broken down into strictly deterministic factors.  However, without an all seeing, all knowing, understanding of such deterministic factors, chaos theory leaves the individual with uncertainties about climate change projections (just as life has uncertainties).  This uncertainty creates problems like "Tyranny of the Commons/Small Decisions/Contemporary" (Google terms in quotes if you don't know what I am talking about), as well as "Moral Hazards", that have made anthropogenic climate change a difficult challenge to tackle in a world of incomplete understanding.  Furthermore, anthropologists have recently postulated that early complex society did not develop until the early societal elites developed the concept of vengeful gods that held people accountable for their actions even after death, so that the "Moral Hazard" opportunities created by the uncertainties of life, would not temp people to succumb to temptation (moral hazard) and take advantage of the common good for ones personal gain.

Similarly, as Mother Nature (Gaia) holds humanity accountable for our collective climate change actions (or inactions); collectively (including future generations) we will reap what we sow whether we like it or not.  In this regards climate change (including abrupt climate change) is just like any other complex/"wicked problem" in life; and I believe that one of the keys to adding meaning to life (including climate change action) is to continuously work to do more things that are "good" (i.e. things that result in less suffering) & to do fewer things that are "bad" (i.e. things that cause more suffering).  In this sense, if one wants to live an effective life, one should still make an effort to improve matters (no matter how seemingly inconsequently the improvement).

Very best,
AbruptSLR

[Ninebelowzero]

"People seem to think that scientists do science to save the world"



http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07cvhrj     

[magnamentis]

@AbruptSLR best post in here ever seen

especially that last pic is the key. we have to wipe in front of our own doors first and each do our best, collective best will not only follow suit but be a direct result.

[AbruptSLR]

especially that last pic is the key.

Here are a few others.

[mercurybar]

OK, I hate to be the negative nancy of the group... but... that's a very middle class first world attitude.  I work in third world countries and I don't see the beauty of humanity often.  I see poverty, death, corruption, disease, despair, legal slavery, women treated as seconds class citizens, cast systems, and on and on.  I'm not saying do nothing, I'm saying anything that you do isn't go to make any measurable difference.  Perhaps we are a doomed species. Looking at all the data from the last month it would certainly appear so.  I can't see humanity pulling out of this and emerging into some sort of utopian Star Trek society.  More than likely, it will be something closer to the dark ages. Religious extremism will continue to grow. Nationalism will take hold. The UK and the US will become isolationist countries. The radical right will take power. A corporate military state will be the new first world. Starvation, wars and disease will become the new third world.  AbruptSLR, I'm sorry to burst your bubble of happy thoughts but that's just the way I see it.

[magnamentis]

these things are not contradictory, what we should do and be and are slowly heading at has never been the true live of 99% of the earth population and i'm quite sure that he by no means wanted to say that it is.

nevertheless we need goals, positive goals, motivating goals that keep us goin' into that direction, no matter whether we can reach that goal in our life time. sometimes the path is the target, just not the final one.

there is no doubt that the facts you described are true for a majority (really, in numbers and percent ) on this planet. perhaps another reason why it's so difficult to let go of our ways, they appear so successful and in a way undeniably are, just that several ends have to be brought together, as well as not either or.

[AbruptSLR]

AbruptSLR, I'm sorry to burst your bubble of happy thoughts but that's just the way I see it.

First, I suspect that Gandhi, and Mother Teresa, has seen their share of third world suffering, and that the Buddha personally experienced suffering from alpha to omega; and yet they seem to still see the value of making an effort; even while people were dying around them on a regular basis.

Second, just because some bad things happen in the future on a societal basis (even if climate change contributes to the death of billions); does not mean that all goodness will disappear.  For instance Elon Musk is working to establish a Mars colony, incase society blows itself-up (note climate change is a stress riser for war); and if you think that a corporate state will be the new first world; then you must admit that Google or Facebook (and their AI developments) could be, or be part of, such a new first world; and any AI surviving in such a new first world would almost certainly include Swarm Intelligence where humans contribute directly to the Swarm Intelligence.  Thus, even if a few clear human thinkers contribute to the Swarm Intelligence then the corporate first world state might minimize the frequency with which society succumbs to "moral hazards"; and it may be possible/probable that some form of improved future society (a limited utopia) could rise from the ashes of societal collapse.

[AbruptSLR]

The first link leads to the thread entitled "Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat", which contains other discussions related to this topic:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1099.0.html

Also, I expect to add other posts on this topic to the "Human Stupidity" thread (see the second link)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1548.0.html

[Juan C. García]

Whats the point in staying here, chatting with people who call themselves apocalyse4real, abruptSLR, etc., if is not to learn and try to make a change?

Juan,

As you cite me by name, I feel entitled to wax philosophically on this issue:

...

In this sense, if one wants to live an effective life, one should still make an effort to improve matters (no matter how seemingly inconsequently the improvement).

Very best,
AbruptSLR

Hi AbruptSLR.

I like your post so much that I believe that I am going to mention you pretty often! 

Thanks for this answer and thanks for all the work that you do in this Forum. I have been appreciating too much the coments that you make, when they are serious and when you take the lead on "Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor".

The true is that this Forum and Neven's Blog are great! A lot to learn here!

[AbruptSLR]

OK, I hate to be the negative nancy of the group... but... that's a very middle class first world attitude.

Additionally, I note that everybody dies, so why does anybody make an effort in life?  And in this line of thinking I provide the following link to the "Anthropogenic Existential Risk" thread; which cites many references on how to address existential risks, including abrupt climate change:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1307.0.html

Further, I note that some leading edge scientists believe that climate change risk is one of the contributing factors as to why it is challenging to locate other intelligent life in the universe; because presumably advanced societies on other worlds never learned to take responsibility for learning to cooperate for the global common good.  Hopefully, our current BAU experiment on climate change does not lead to an existential event; and hopefully future generations will learn from previous short-comings.

[Juan C. García]

Hi Mercurybar:

I understand your point. A lot of problems on this life. Maybe there is something in which I disagree:

I'm not saying do nothing, I'm saying anything that you do isn't go to make any measurable difference.  Perhaps we are a doomed species.

I know it is difficult, but I am trying to make a real change. I also see Neven's Blog & Forum and I believe that these sites and efforts are making a change. So lets not quit in our good intentions, even that problems are big and the effort could sound utopic.

[Bruce Steele]

Mercurybar, Your place sounds very remote. A creek, the ocean, and a little cabin?
 Have you tried to measure energy/fuel use?  I get caught up in trying to imagine little or no fuel to produce enough food to provide for a couple people and some farm animals. There seems to be ways to electrify transport, and home energy but getting away from fuel use while still providing enough food to support a small family is crazy challenging.  You sound like you are something close to zero and if you can get close or if you think you already arrived I am all ears to hear your story.
Imitation is the sincerest  form of flattery . 

[Acts5v29]

I don't think it's so much negative???

Peace!

I was not denouncing you at-all - just referring to your view that

"It is not our job to influence.  Although we may if we wish engage ourselves in such activities."

and I agree with that.  The issue is in the hearts / between the ears of those who will not listen, and the finest of explanations will lose to abstract intransigence.

best wishes

[Sigmetnow]

An example of one engaged individual precipitating corporate action to educate the public:

During the Q&A session at the Tesla annual shareholders meeting yesterday, a Tesla owner noted that many of the people who come up to talk to him about his car seem unaware of the climate crisis.  Clearly he is educating them a bit on the subject.  But he asked Elon Musk if a section on climate change could be added to the Tesla website, to help inform those who are drawn to Tesla for other reasons.  Musk said that was a great idea....

[mercurybar]

Bruce, I've been doing a lot of research on becoming 100 percent off grid.  Difficult.  Expensive.  I first looked into hydroelectric, as I live on a medium size creek.  However, the altitude drop is not great enough to make us of the water as an electric power source,  big bummer.  2nd thought was methane generation.  A lot has been done in India and some in Africa but it seems very little is currently being done in first world countries for consumer use.  We have a large commercial facility as part of our local power system but I can find nothing on a consumer level.  I'm in the midst of engineering one myself.  I live in a triple canopy jungle and have an ample supply of green waste.  It's an easy thing to make a simple generator and use the methane as a cooking source.  However,  the real benefit would be if the methane could be pressurized, stored and used as a source for heating water, cooking and even a fuel for a small vehicle to make short trips.  This is a rather large technological problem (on a budget.)  Solar is good and I'm shopping for the best system now.  I live in a unique place and becoming, say, 80% off grid is possible and with a ten year investment should save me money.  Anaerobic septic system that can be powered off the solar, some of the best soil in the world, unlimited fresh water.  We are doing good so far.  My hope is to have the entire property functional in 5 years.  I will stop my current job in 2 years and we will rely on selling the extra food as our primary income source.

[LRC1962]

Here is an article that I feel will start being felt more and more and that a tipping point will be reached and change will be forced to happen.
Unlike Buffett, S&P Sees ‘Considerable’ Climate Change Impact for Insurers

How S&P Assesses the Risk

But insurers and other financial services firms globally still face risks to reputation—and even litigation—when activists’ voices aren’t heard, S&P suggested in its report.

While insurance company exposures to these risks and others is difficult to quantify, S&P outlines the metrics that analysts are using to sort out the financial services firms likely to be hardest hit by climate change from those positioned to benefit from opportunities in the final section of its report.