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in4apenny

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Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« on: November 02, 2016, 01:12:29 PM »
I seem to see lots of views that technological advancements will turn around our global climate issues.

As far as i'm aware technology has got us into this mess, ie medical/agricultural/transport/communication/manufacturing/finance etc, which is all biased towards population growth & the support network.

Lets say we chase cleaner battery vehicles = more stable climate( debatable) = greater population ( you get the idea)

What are the chances of the modern electorate voting for global policy change offering a lower standard of living, even with severe weather hammering on their neighbours door. 

Archimid

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 02:53:30 PM »
Yes, I do. In terms of complexity the climate system is as complex as the human body. Regardless of the complexity, modern medicine has lengthened the human lifespan and cured many diseases. The same can be done for the planet.

For example, I've been thinking on ways to save the Arctic sea ice. AT first I thought that using aerosols to cool the arctic over the summer months could be sufficient. BUT that misses the bigger point. we have to increase radiation output into space to cool the planet. Any local cooling done from inside the atmosphere will necessarily increase the temperature of the Earth system.

So this is my solution, implementable in less than 6 months if need be (with a humongous multinational effort).

We send rockets into orbit that will spray particles in a ridiculously large area, so that incoming sunlight is scattered before it reaches the arctic.  The particles do not need to cover the whole surface. The particles must be "sprayed" strategically so that they reduce the most radiation right over the arctic.

If that is done at a sufficiently large scale we might be able to save the arctic and cool the planet avoiding catastrophe. 

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 08:49:46 PM »
Welcome to the forum in4apenny.
Humans have bad psychology for dealing with long term slow-moving threats, and a tendency to prefer the present over the future, developed by evolution. The quick ones concentrating on short-term threats and gratifications survived, while the long term thinkers were eaten / enslaved / failed to reproduce / starved etc.
Today with much longer lifespans, lower immediate personal risks in developed countries, and a more complex civilization with high impact on the planet this psychology is quite bad for the whole of humanity but can't be shaken off, especially as on the individual level it's still quite useful in a lot of situations and locations.
In addition, there is the "Tragedy of the Commons", where a common "free" resource (or pollution sink) gets exploited beyond sustainability because of individual rational action in the absence of central control. The larger the common resource, the harder it is to centrally control and regulate.
I don't see this changing anytime soon, unless some great undeniable catastrophe with imminent risk AND a possible solution comes along. And climate change is typically not like that, it creeps along with a lot of delay in the visible consequences until it's too late to do anything and by then it's better for each individual to focus on his/her own survival than the good of the civilization.

In regards to geo-engineering (such as spraying aerosols to cool the planet) it suffers from too many unknowns even if you assume humanity is united in such an effort, which arguably it will not be. And it suffers from one big known, and that is the law of unintended consequences. I doubt such engineering will be attempted in the proper way (even if such exists) and I'm quite sure the results will not be what you might like. Just my humble opinion.

sidd

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 09:38:36 PM »
I see two questions posed here:

1)  Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control ?

Well I do think humans are capable of so doing, so I can say the answer is yes.

2) What are the chances of the modern electorate voting for global policy change offering a lower standard of living, even with severe weather hammering on their neighbours door ?

I think not at present.

sidd

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 10:21:47 PM »
I think that the climate system is about as complex as human body. There are many different system interacting with each other at multiple scales. In this analogy global warming is like a fever. In on itself is harmless and actually good because it induces immune response.  But if it goes for too long or it gets too high, then internal organs start to fail and eventually the system collapses.The same happens with the climate. "Vital organs" of the system, like the Arctic, break. Then after that there is little time to fix things, and if you do fix it, there is permanent damage.

However contrary to medicine, where there are billions of possible test subjects for treatments or medication, there is only one planet to test any possible fix. Anything we do could have unforeseen catastrophic impacts.

So the ancient medical paradigm applies. First, do no harm.

But we already did the harm. The patient is going to die unless we take extreme measures.

I would prefer a cure to be developed with a 1000 test subjects and only one expert than 1000 experts and only one test subject. Regrettably we only have one climate to test on.



To do my "orbital clouds" suggestion, I would launch a spacecraft(or maybe multiple spacecrafts) that could make the smallest possible cloud needed so that instruments can measure it's effectiveness at blocking incoming rays. I would also put them in an orbit where they will decay relatively fast and burn up.  From there it can be scaled according to the results. I would imagine that to make a difference at all it could take hundreds of trips and to fix the problem, thousands.

There are other suggestions that are cheaper and more tested. Paul Beckwith once suggested to detonate nuclear weapons in the deserts of the world. The  aerosolized particles could allow a controlled (but temporary) nuclear winter.


I imagine this sounds like absolute madness, but I think something  as mad sounding will eventually be the only choice. What is absolute madness is to keep emitting CO2. 



I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 04:49:48 PM »
...
I would prefer a cure to be developed with a 1000 test subjects and only one expert than 1000 experts and only one test subject. Regrettably we only have one climate to test on.

To do my "orbital clouds" suggestion, I would launch a spacecraft(or maybe multiple spacecrafts) that could make the smallest possible cloud needed so that instruments can measure it's effectiveness at blocking incoming rays. I would also put them in an orbit where they will decay relatively fast and burn up.  From there it can be scaled according to the results. I would imagine that to make a difference at all it could take hundreds of trips and to fix the problem, thousands.
...

Archimid,

Placing some sort of giant cloud sun-shield over the arctic to save the sea ice sounds tempting, but indeed, as you note, the problem is not as simple as it seems.

Consider:  the poles are the fastest-warming areas on the planet -- yet they receive the least sunlight!  One must consider the entire global system -- air currents, water currents, sea ice physics, atmospheric physics, seasonal changes, etc.  What is causing the increased arctic heat?  Are the causes changing over time?  What effects would any proposed solutions have?

Blocking sunlight would wreak havoc with all earth processes that depend on the sun's energy -- which is to say: almost everything.  With less sunlight, plants grow less, so forests would be less of a carbon sink and food crop production would decrease.  Weather systems would be affected, because surface warming by the sun creates the rising air that produces precipitation, wind, and weather system movement.  And all of our clean energy efforts....  What would be the effects on solar, wind and sea-current power generation?

The fossil fuel age was fun while it lasted.  It was also, to quote Elon Musk, "the dumbest experiment in human history."  Today it just makes sense to attack the problem by addressing the cause we know -- us -- rather than by treating the planet as another big experiment.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2016, 06:27:56 PM »
Consider:  the poles are the fastest-warming areas on the planet -- yet they receive the least sunlight! 
Indeed, but I think that makes it ideal for several reasons.
1. lets say you make an "orbital cloud" that is paper thin but with several hundreds kilometers of surface area. In the equator that cloud will only cover a surface area of about the size of the cloud.  In the pole that surface area covered with the same size cloud will increase significantly.

2. Arctic sea ice has a magnificent function. It "stores" cold during the winter and it releases the cold in the summer time, cooling the planet at it's warmest times. It also has the function of providing a reflective surface for sunlight. By focusing the orbital cloud on the arctic, in a way, we are only helping earth's own natural refrigerator to make ice during winter, and to not lose ice as fast during summer. That may buy us time until we can figure out how to remove all this damned CO2 from the atmosphere.

3. Because no plants grow on arctic sea ice, the effect of the orbital cloud on photosynthetic process will be minimal. The only thing I can think are open ocean algae, but they are not supposed to be there in anyway. The Arctic is supposed to be covered with thick ice not with algae.

Quote
One must consider the entire global system -- air currents, water currents, sea ice physics, atmospheric physics, seasonal changes, etc.  What is causing the increased arctic heat?  Are the causes changing over time?  What effects would any proposed solutions have?


I think the first problem with an orbital cloud will be the cooling of the upper atmosphere. It will inevitably cool down further than it is already. That will definitely change circulation patterns but given the potential disaster of a BOE, it may be the lesser of two evils. Perhaps is better to wait what a BOE will do, and then if it is a bad as I fear it will be, it can be used to restore Arctic sea ice. Either way the choice sucks.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

magnamentis

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2016, 07:41:49 PM »
Q = Title of this thread

A = No, no way.

which is why i think those treaties like that paris agreement won't do much but still are better
to have than not to have, just overrated as to the effect it will have.

consumption = pollution and resource hogging which applies to anything, including battery
production and other resource consuming stuff that is produced to save fossil fuel.

the only real solution is less consumption, only possible after a 180 degree reform of the monetary system and the social approach to what is success and who is to be respected. as long as 99% of all people respect or are blackmailed by "money" in one or another way and as long as the one with the bigger car and newer, more expensive phone, cloth or whatever is more adored and tried to be copied nothing at all will change. hence i repeat the short version of the answer = NO !
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 09:46:15 PM by magnamentis »

sidd

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2016, 08:50:24 PM »
Re: orbital clouds

there are no stable orbits that confine themselves to the polar regions

Sigmetnow

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 10:23:50 PM »
Also:  Blocking the sun from the arctic does nothing to stop ice loss from:  warm ocean currents, storms that break up the ice, ice exported out the Fram Strait, and warm air.

Solar irradiance is a minor forcing compared to CO2 and CH4.
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Archimid

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2016, 12:04:39 AM »
Re: orbital clouds

there are no stable orbits that confine themselves to the polar regions

That's true. I overlooked that. But still,  the clouds do not need a stable orbit. A spacecraft on a polar orbit could "spray"the clouds when it's coming up on the arctic in such a way that the cloud's orbit decays during the night side of the orbit.

Of course there are "little details" like acceleration of the craft must be coordinated with the "Spray" because of that pesky third law, but engineers can solve that.

Also:  Blocking the sun from the arctic does nothing to stop ice loss from:  warm ocean currents, storms that break up the ice, ice exported out the Fram Strait, and warm air.


Solar irradiance is a minor forcing compared to CO2 and CH4.


I think you are confusing the variation of solar irradiance, which is arguably irrelevant, with total solar irradiance.  Blocking even half of the total solar irradiance  that falls on the arctic form space will be very significant.




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SteveMDFP

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2016, 01:32:26 PM »
I dunno that this could work at all.  You'd need to use a very fine powder, almost individual molecules of highly reflective stuff, say zinc oxide.  Put into orbit, I'm pretty sure such nanoparticles would be heavily affected by forces that are irrelevant to more massive objects like satellites.

The particles would be buffeted and accelerated by forces that are infinitesimal for a satellite. There's magnetic fields, electrical fields, the solar wind, even the photon pressure of sunlight would be substantial.

I cannot begin to imagine how you'd model the behavior of such orbiting nanoparticles, or even experimentally measure what's happening to such dust clouds.  My hunch is that as fast as you could spray such clouds, the particles would either fall to earth along it's magnetic lines of force, or scatter out into deep space.  Or maybe assemble into a thin ring over the equator, like Saturn's rings, before being blown into deep space by the solar wind.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2016, 02:00:37 PM »
Also:  Blocking the sun from the arctic does nothing to stop ice loss from:  warm ocean currents, storms that break up the ice, ice exported out the Fram Strait, and warm air.


Solar irradiance is a minor forcing compared to CO2 and CH4.


I think you are confusing the variation of solar irradiance, which is arguably irrelevant, with total solar irradiance.  Blocking even half of the total solar irradiance  that falls on the arctic form space will be very significant.

The sun is currently below the horizon 24 hours a day at the pole. Yet the arctic temperature is currently 20°C above normal, and the factors I list are keeping the sea ice at a record minimum for November.  Even in total darkness, there has been no recovery.
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Archimid

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2016, 04:49:59 PM »
The sun is currently below the horizon 24 hours a day at the pole. Yet the arctic temperature is currently 20°C above normal, and the factors I list are keeping the sea ice at a record minimum for November.  Even in total darkness, there has been no recovery.

Of course. Solar radiation management will only be effective during the summer months. I think the attached graph explains very well why. From here: https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/images/Solar%20Radiation.png

Obviously once the sun is gone, radiation management is useless, but during the summer months it will be very effective. It is true that they are many other forcings like ocean and atmospheric currents. But heat is heat regardless where it comes from. If we remove heat by stopping it from getting there in the first place, then all other forgings will find a a cooler arctic with more ice, keeping more heat out.

Of course that is not to say we can restore the Earth to the same state as it was before the 20th century. A BOE will make the planet a very different place for a very long time. But even if  is different  I bet that a planet without ice on the north pole is more different that a planet with ice.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2016, 05:55:10 PM »
  Put into orbit, I'm pretty sure such nanoparticles would be heavily affected by forces that are irrelevant to more massive objects like satellites.

The particles would be buffeted and accelerated by forces that are infinitesimal for a satellite. There's magnetic fields, electrical fields, the solar wind, even the photon pressure of sunlight would be substantial.

Nice. I suspected there would be a problem with the mass of the particles but the way you illustrated it is very clear. It leads me to the following thoughts.

I think there might be less forces for a nano particle to interact with out in space than here on earth in a deep gravity well surrounded by particles of high temperature air. Of course from our relatively massive perspective those forces are just noise. However at the very small scales there are very real forces  with magnitude and direction. Perhaps the magnitude and direction of those forces can be used to steer the nanoparticles in " magnetic orbits" out to space. I don't know. That's an engineering problem that can probably be solved.


I think the bigger point I'm trying to make is that the we have controlled the Earth's climate for the last 100 years. We made it warmer. Can we make it colder using crazy technologies that have not been invented, but are theoretically possible and with unknown consequences. However scary that is it's less scary than the fact that we have control over the planet's temperature, but not control of ourselves to stop the warming.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2016, 06:08:32 PM »
  Put into orbit, I'm pretty sure such nanoparticles would be heavily affected by forces that are irrelevant to more massive objects like satellites.

The particles would be buffeted and accelerated by forces that are infinitesimal for a satellite. There's magnetic fields, electrical fields, the solar wind, even the photon pressure of sunlight would be substantial.

Nice. I suspected there would be a problem with the mass of the particles but the way you illustrated it is very clear. It leads me to the following thoughts.

I think there might be less forces for a nano particle to interact with out in space than here on earth in a deep gravity well surrounded by particles of high temperature air. Of course from our relatively massive perspective those forces are just noise. However at the very small scales there are very real forces  with magnitude and direction. Perhaps the magnitude and direction of those forces can be used to steer the nanoparticles in " magnetic orbits" out to space. I don't know. That's an engineering problem that can probably be solved.


I think the bigger point I'm trying to make is that the we have controlled the Earth's climate for the last 100 years. We made it warmer. Can we make it colder using crazy technologies that have not been invented, but are theoretically possible and with unknown consequences. However scary that is it's less scary than the fact that we have control over the planet's temperature, but not control of ourselves to stop the warming.

Quite so.  Perseverating here on the technical aspects of the idea...  It occurs to me that exposure to ionizing radiation would tend to strip each nanoparticle of some electrons.  The particles would then tend to become positively charged, and far more susceptible to magnetic and electrical forces.

But yes, the broader concept deserves some thought, even if implementation might be inadvisable.  I think parasols of reflective film would be more effective, though more costly per watt of reflected solar irradiance.  They might also more easily be destroyed if found to be troublesome. 

I think any such scheme probably becomes absurd in comparison to the straightforward task of reducing emissions here on the surface.  But they might be more feasible than the incredibly energy costs of trying to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere.

TerryM

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2016, 07:15:37 PM »
Attended a lecture a few years ago where the presenter was advocating spraying (sulphur?) particles from high flying airplanes. He claimed that if the object was to slow climate change as opposed to halting climate change most of the negative blowback would be avoided.


He also said that it would be so inexpensive that many corporations and several individuals could afford to fund the whole thing.


The negative that I came away with was that there is the possibility of some group (or country) embarking on this project surreptitiously, to avoid any legal challenges, with no concern for those that might be harmed.


If drought or massive flooding occur in a region controlled by a competitor, this might be seen as a positive. If more than one entity was to embark on such a program, the results might quickly spiral out to control - again with no one taking the blame.


Whatever is done has to be done with the consent of at least a majority of the world's governments. At this time the UN is the only body that has the stature to approve of such a world changing scheme, and the UN is far from being ideal.


Terry

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2016, 07:48:44 PM »
One thing I'm certain of, if we attempt geoengineering to control climate, it will have enormous unforeseen consequences, almost entirely on the "bad" side of the spectrum. We haven't the time, wisdom or knowledge to pull it off in a good way.

magnamentis

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2016, 08:04:11 PM »
One thing I'm certain of, if we attempt geoengineering to control climate, it will have enormous unforeseen consequences, almost entirely on the "bad" side of the spectrum. We haven't the time, wisdom or knowledge to pull it off in a good way.

your's is the entire point, if we would start to Expel the devil with the "beelzebub" we would commit suizide. we have to reduce are demands and consume what we need and not all that we just "want". that's the only way, modesty and as opposed to insatiability. the foundation is to stop competing with anyone and anything but to cooperate once the "needs" are covered.

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2016, 08:07:39 PM »
I think the bigger point I'm trying to make is that the we have controlled the Earth's climate for the last 100 years. We made it warmer. Can we make it colder using crazy technologies that have not been invented, but are theoretically possible and with unknown consequences. However scary that is it's less scary than the fact that we have control over the planet's temperature, but not control of ourselves to stop the warming.

Archimid, affecting/changing is NOT controlling. And cooling just the Arctic in summer, even if it can succeed with these proposed mechanisms, will have lots of unintended consequences, most of them negative I would imagine.
For example:
There will be an extreme differential between hot equator and frozen pole. This could create great storms and other weather disruptions.
The polar jet stream might be accelerated or otherwise afftected, who knows what this might cause.
The Inuits, Alaskans and Siberians and maybe Northern Europeans and Canadians might lose their summer. I doubt they will be happy with that.
Global ocean circulation, and specifically AMOC, might be affected by the vastly different behavior of the Arctic in summer. This could cause lots of problems that might appear only a long time after your experiment.
etc.

And what is the justification - that some people couldn't hold off making more babies or taking more flights or whatever? Humans will not be able to control the climate effectively. It's best to focus on limiting birth and consumption, and if worse comes to worse carbon capture. Although most probably the best focus will be on adaptation and survival in the face of the climate disaster.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2016, 08:52:09 PM »
Obviously once the sun is gone, radiation management is useless, but during the summer months it will be very effective. It is true that they are many other forcings like ocean and atmospheric currents. But heat is heat regardless where it comes from. If we remove heat by stopping it from getting there in the first place, then all other forgings will find a a cooler arctic with more ice, keeping more heat out.

Warm ocean waters from the Pacific flow into the arctic and melt the sea ice. 

Storms enter the arctic and break up the ice, making it more prone to melt. 

Arctic ocean currents drive sea ice out of the arctic via the Fram Strait, where it flows south and melts. 

Greenhouse gasses trap heat reflected from the earth's surface, keeping the atmosphere warmer.  Warmer winds from the continents and the oceans continually criss-cross the arctic.... 

   > Blocking the sun over the Arctic does nothing to prevent warmth from outside the Arctic coming in -- all day, every day. 

   > Changing the amount of sunlight striking the arctic would change ocean and air currents in unforeseen ways, potentially making the situation worse, not better.

   > And a "magic space cloud" could actually trap more heat in the arctic, by blocking earthly heat that is normally released to space.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

magnamentis

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2016, 10:21:24 PM »

congrats !

i genuinely adore the amount of time and energy that is put into this thread, i wanted to reply as second post but the idea is so strange and non-executable that all that came to my mind would have come across as an offense.

i'm always glad to see that other people are more patient and find the right (better) words than i would. the art at times seems to be to say nothing LOL
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 12:55:18 AM by magnamentis »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2016, 12:14:35 AM »

i'm always glad to see that other people are more patient and find the right (better) words than i would. the art at times seems to be to say nothing LOL

Thank you for noticing. ;D  It was indeed a struggle.
The irony is that I am normally the one championing activities in outer space! :)  But this one gives Space a bad name.
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Archimid

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2016, 02:48:34 AM »
Quote
The negative that I came away with was that there is the possibility of some group (or country) embarking on this project surreptitiously, to avoid any legal challenges, with no concern for those that might be harmed.

Very good point. For example, nations with coasts on the Arctic ocean might find the idea of an ice free arctic appealing. Lower latitude countries like the USA might find heatwaves and drought not so appealing. Doing something on the scale of orbital solar radiation management will require international cooperation but because interests seem opposite it will not happen. However if we wait until something like a BOE interests will change. I think that it will be so bad, that what seems like madness now, will look like a veritable necessity for all mankind.


Archimid, affecting/changing is NOT controlling.

I looked up the dictionary definition and I think human induced warming fits it. But I think I understand what you mean. The word does have a connotation of  an active will. Since humanity seems unable to stop warming the planet, they really don't control it in the full sense of the word.

Quote
And cooling just the Arctic in summer, even if it can succeed with these proposed mechanisms, will have lots of unintended consequences, most of them negative I would imagine.
For example:
There will be an extreme differential between hot equator and frozen pole. This could create great storms and other weather disruptions.
The polar jet stream might be accelerated or otherwise afftected, who knows what this might cause.
The Inuits, Alaskans and Siberians and maybe Northern Europeans and Canadians might lose their summer. I doubt they will be happy with that.
Global ocean circulation, and specifically AMOC, might be affected by the vastly different behavior of the Arctic in summer. This could cause lots of problems that might appear only a long time after your experiment.
etc.

I completely agree with all of what you say as a possible consequence of orbital radiation management.  The thing is that all of those things you mentioned are already being affected by global warming and once we pass some tipping points like a BOE thing are only going to get much more worse.


Quote
And what is the justification - that some people couldn't hold off making more babies or taking more flights or whatever? Humans will not be able to control the climate effectively. It's best to focus on limiting birth and consumption, and if worse comes to worse carbon capture. Although most probably the best focus will be on adaptation and survival in the face of the climate disaster.

I think the justification will be that we have no choice.  Time is running out/ has run out for combating global warming by limiting CO2 emissions. Very soon, if its not already happening, Earth CO2 emissions will increase to the point that human CO2 emissions are made irrelevant. I'm talking about extra emissions through decreased CO2 absorption of the oceans and burnt forests and increased emissions by permafrost melt, burnt forests and death of ecosystems. not about the total natural emissions that were in balance with nature for the last million years.



Warm ocean waters from the Pacific flow into the arctic and melt the sea ice. 
   The more thick ice, the more warm water can be buffered. Cooling the arctic sduring summer preserves ice that can thicken during the winter and help prevent next year's warm waters.

Quote
Storms enter the arctic and break up the ice, making it more prone to melt. 

 The more ice cover, the less open oceans. The less open oceans, the less potential energy storms have available. The less potential energy storm have available the less they can break the ice.
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Arctic ocean currents drive sea ice out of the arctic via the Fram Strait, where it flows south and melts. 

 orbital radiation management does not stop that, but maybe a stop gap can be engineered using icebergs. However a cooler arctic will replace ice lost through export much quicker.

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Greenhouse gasses trap heat reflected from the earth's surface, keeping the atmosphere warmer.  Warmer winds from the continents and the oceans continually criss-cross the arctic....

  Green house gasses are only greenhouse gasses because of solar radiation. The less sunlight available the less they can work.

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   > Blocking the sun over the Arctic does nothing to prevent warmth from outside the Arctic coming in -- all day, every day. 

To the contrary. If the arctic is cooler, because it has less sunlight, more heat will flow to it and dissipate. Like it always has been, just with a little help.

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   > Changing the amount of sunlight striking the arctic would change ocean and air currents in unforeseen ways, potentially making the situation worse, not better.
  It absolutely will, but they are changing already and fixing to change a heck of a lot more. the sad thing is that cooling the arctic will not make ocean and air currents back to where they are supposed to be. But given the prospect of abrupt warming I can't imagine how cooling the arctic to something similar to it's original state will be worse.

   > And a "magic space cloud" could actually trap more heat in the arctic, by blocking earthly heat that is normally released to space.

If you do it in the atmosphere it will absolutely trap more heat. My suggestion is to do it in space, so the sunlight simply never enters the earth system.

i genuinely adore the amount of time and energy that is put into this thread, i wanted to reply as second post but the idea is so strange and non-executable that all that came to my mind would have come across as an offense.

Fire away, I don't bite...hard :)
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 02:59:43 AM by Archimid »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

magnamentis

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2016, 02:13:58 PM »
yeah, sorry man, i thought about that later that the effect would be like that and i hope that will not discourage anyone to come up with new ideas :-)

my opinion about the idea is in no way something personal. i simply and honestly believe that humans should in the first place stop doing the wrong things than trying to correct earlier mistakes with new mistakes that have often proven to be even more heavy on the system than the one they wanted to correct.

for example i do predict huge future difficulties about resources needed for the production of renewables like PV and Windpower as well as the waste from all the trillions of depleted batteries that will have to be dealt with. for now it's a good thing to reduce fossil fuel consumption but it's not a solution, the solution is a reduction of individual traffic as well as a huge increase in efficiency.
but that's going too much OT, just an example as to my real point and why i don't just believe in replacement technologies and technical solutions for problems caused by technology. there is more to it.

topics like that would need a large and long life debate, very difficult to express all the necessary arguments in a few lines and in writing. a clear statement with a friendly face is easier to deal with than the same statement in writing.

enjoy further, new approaches can only be found through free thinking and free speech :-)




in4apenny

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #25 on: November 13, 2016, 03:34:55 PM »
For those that think it is possible to control future climate i presume they must have full knowledge of what will happen (in minuet detail) in the future given our current abuse of the system. Prediction/forecast or best guess just isn't good enough.

To be honest , i think our current level of ability is on par with those who thought cane toads were a good idea for pest control in Oz.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2016, 04:51:27 PM by in4apenny »

Archimid

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #26 on: November 13, 2016, 06:11:22 PM »
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For those that think it is possible to control future climate i presume they must have full knowledge of what will happen (in minuet detail) in the future given our current abuse of the system

There is no such a thing as full knowledge. Absolutely everything has uncertainty. That we convince ourselves of certainty to make decisions is simply a hack so that we get stuff done. Managing the climate is no different.  There are risks and rewards that must be considered including unknown unknowns. Once the risk makes sense , action is taken.

Climate change has a very significant risk of global catastrophe. There may or may not be geoengineering technologies who's risk/reward are worth doing as prevention. Once we move past prevention (after a BOE IMHO) then the risk/reward equation changes dramatically.

Humanity certainly has the technology and the capacity to do it. What we lack is the will. Will it be dangerous? No more dangerous than the changes we already made to the planet.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

in4apenny

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #27 on: November 13, 2016, 06:35:37 PM »
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For those that think it is possible to control future climate i presume they must have full knowledge of what will happen (in minuet detail) in the future given our current abuse of the system

There is no such a thing as full knowledge. Absolutely everything has uncertainty. That we convince ourselves of certainty to make decisions is simply a hack so that we get stuff done. Managing the climate is no different.  There are risks and rewards that must be considered including unknown unknowns. Once the risk makes sense , action is taken.

Climate change has a very significant risk of global catastrophe. There may or may not be geoengineering technologies who's risk/reward are worth doing as prevention. Once we move past prevention (after a BOE IMHO) then the risk/reward equation changes dramatically.

Humanity certainly has the technology and the capacity to do it. What we lack is the will. Will it be dangerous? No more dangerous than the changes we already made to the planet.

Are you implying we can merely change the course we're on or manage it . two very different scenarios.

 





Pmt111500

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Re: Anybody think humans are capable of managing climate control
« Reply #28 on: November 14, 2016, 01:40:58 AM »
In theory this is not much harder than managing a sustainable greenhouse so yes. The guy next door who is stupid enough to kill his crops or breed too much having a rifle is the problem.