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Author Topic: Sea Level Rise Accelerating  (Read 1381 times)

salbers

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Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« on: March 04, 2018, 07:40:20 PM »
A recent PNAS paper shows SLR is accelerating at .08mm/yr^2. One can look at the doubling time of each component and there we see Antarctic Ice Sheets have a relatively low contribution now, though the shortest doubling time, on the order of 6 years. The overall doubling rate of the rise is roughly 35 years.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/02/06/1717312115

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2018, 08:02:08 PM »
Still, the rather conservative value of 65 cm rise by the year 2100.

salbers

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2018, 08:06:49 PM »
Indeed the 65cm value is a reasonable estimate of a simple quadratic extrapolation. One might also calculate a quadratic estimate of each component. Then the sum of the total will no longer be quadratic. The Antarctic component doubling each 6 years would come to dominate and the total value by 2100 seems it could be more than 65cm.

vox_mundi

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2018, 08:08:14 PM »
Modest Warming Risks 'Irreversible' Ice Sheet Loss

Quote
Scientists have known for decades that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are shrinking, but it had been assumed that they would survive a 1.5-2C temperature rise relatively intact.

However, according to a new analysis published in the journal Nature Climate Change, even modest global warming could cause irreversible damage to the polar ice, contributing to catastrophic sea level rises.

"We say that 1.5-2C is close to the limit for which more dramatic effects may be expected from the ice sheets," Frank Pattyn, head of the department of geosciences, Free University of Brussels and lead study author, told AFP.

 Many models of the 1.5-2C scenario allow for the threshold to be breached in the short term, potentially heating the planet several degrees higher, before using carbon capture and other technologies to bring temperatures back into line by 2100.

The study warned against this approach, however, saying that a feedback loop set off by higher temperatures would "lead to self-sustained melting of the entire ice sheet" even if those rises were later offset.

For Greenland, the team said with 95 percent certainty that major ice sheet decline would occur at 1.8C worth of warming.

"For both Greenland and Antarctica, tipping points are known to exist for warming levels that could be reached before the end of this century," said Pattyn.

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming, Nature Climate Change (2018
« Last Edit: November 12, 2018, 08:28:59 PM by vox_mundi »
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wili

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2018, 01:30:02 PM »
https://www.axios.com/sea-level-rise-will-be-costly-if-we-dont-take-action-8d63cf4a-db07-4512-a97b-5718920aaa38.html

Rising sea levels could cost the U.S. trillions

Andrew Freedman

Quote
...parts of Antarctica are far less stable than previously thought. That's why its sea level rise projections are higher than prior reports from the...IPCC...
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wolfpack513

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2018, 05:52:53 AM »
It has been mention a lot but once the selling starts for coastal properties it’s going to get bad.  People will lose equity/savings and that of course will impact the greater economy.  You don’t want to be the last house on the block to put the “for sale” sign up.  This alone will be trillions before the water rises.