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frankendoodle

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US Drought Monitor
« on: April 18, 2013, 12:21:30 AM »
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Data is collected every Tuesday and the site is updated once every Thursday. I check this once a week every summer because the seasonal quality and quantity of US crops has a profound global impact and that impact is impacted most by rainfall.

ccgwebmaster

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2013, 12:24:01 AM »
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Data is collected every Tuesday and the site is updated once every Thursday. I check this once a week every summer because the seasonal quality and quantity of US crops has a profound global impact and that impact is impacted most by rainfall.
If anyone is aware of links to other similar products for other key regions that produce large agriculture exports, it might be interesting?

There's a little much fixation on the US drought, I think sometimes. It isn't the only major agricultural producer of interest... or the only one able to impact globally.

Apocalypse4Real

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frankendoodle

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2013, 03:05:06 AM »
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/04/12/1859541/yes-climate-change-is-worsening-us-drought-noaa-report-needlessly-confuses-the-issue/

Great article on the Think Progress site by Jo Romm.
I saw an article about this on Yahoo last week from the Associated Press's "science" writer Seth Borenstein who incorrectly chucked it up to NOAA claiming climate change could not have played a part in recent drought because their models could not account for it. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/report-global-warming-didnt-cause-big-us-drought

Just goes to show you: Two writers, same story, two very different articles.

ggelsrinc

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2013, 03:08:28 AM »
If you are looking for other global sources, this one is a great site to add, for University College London:

http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html?map=%2Fwww%2Fdrought%2Fweb_pages%2Fdrought.map&program=%2Fcgi-bin%2Fmapserv&root=%2Fwww%2Fdrought2%2F&map_web_imagepath=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_imageurl=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_template=%2Fdrought.html

That is a great site. I use it to predict June Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover. Click it on 3 and 6  months and see what I mean!

frankendoodle

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2013, 03:12:24 AM »
@ccgwebmaster: One of the other sites I like is Corn and Soybean Digest: http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/

@Apocalypse4Real: Great link, thanks as always :)

[/quote]
There's a little much fixation on the US drought, I think sometimes. It isn't the only major agricultural producer of interest... or the only one able to impact globally.
[/quote]

You mean there is a world outside of the United States!? As an American, I take offense at that :)

ccgwebmaster

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2013, 05:21:05 AM »
@ccgwebmaster: One of the other sites I like is Corn and Soybean Digest: http://cornandsoybeandigest.com/

@Apocalypse4Real: Great link, thanks as always :)

Quote
There's a little much fixation on the US drought, I think sometimes. It isn't the only major agricultural producer of interest... or the only one able to impact globally.

You mean there is a world outside of the United States!? As an American, I take offense at that :)
Seconded on the global drought link - thanks very much, exactly fits the bill.

On the corn and soybean digest thanks - not sure how it varies from what I usually use - but since I just glance at them periodically to see if anything interesting pops up might as well list those:
http://www.agweb.com/news.aspx
http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/
I generally find the first of the two is more fruitful (sometimes stuff with a wider view comes up on the second though).

While it certainly is prudent to watch the big exporters, I would say some of the big producers export very little and are well worth watching - China especially. They only recently stopped being essentially self sufficient, which means they produce enough food for around 1.34 billion people. Imagine the market shock if their production was significantly impacted and they had to go to the markets on a much larger scale to acquire food? At the current time with food prices already right on the edge of conflict triggering levels that would be one to watch.

Ironically if the US had a moderate to good year and China had a bad year - it might actually help the US economically (with the trade deficit).

I was married to an American for a few years, I know how it is there  :D

Laurent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2013, 10:20:35 AM »
It may be a little bit different of what you are looking at but I think this site :
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=MOD11C1_M_LSTDA
is perfect to forecast a drought from a long trend, just spot one area of interest and watch how did it evolved !

frankendoodle

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2013, 12:51:13 AM »
Here's a great article on the Colorado River Basin: http://news.yahoo.com/colorado-river-damned-op-ed-210009332.html
While the upper basin has been declining over the past few years, the Lower Colorado River Basin in TX (LCRB) has been bone dry.
http://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/basin/Colorado
It's been so bad that they are going through arbitration with CO in order for CO to reduce their allotment for irrigation for farmers in TX.

Laurent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2013, 10:23:25 AM »
I looked on your site for the Canadian River Basin Reservoirs :
http://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/basin/canadian (~0, 0,2%)
There is nothing left ?
Rio grande is as bad as the colorado :
http://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/basin/rio-grande  (1000 acre/feet, 30%)
http://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/basin/san-antonio (20 acre/feet, 5.9%)

We are only 0.8 °C on global average !

Laurent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2013, 11:20:10 AM »
I forgot, I don't know if you have been looking at the powerpoint of Paul Beckwith, there is this projection :
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7RkI5VXc3UFJQSUk/edit?pli=1
There is few places left to live !
« Last Edit: April 21, 2013, 12:17:17 PM by Laurent »

fishmahboi

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2013, 11:59:48 AM »
Aren't some of the conditions in the above projection already present now?

Laurent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2013, 01:40:37 PM »
Yes, certainly, or they are in stem.
- The forest in south america is already suffering some drought we aren't seeing it because there is still some trees but they may not last !
- Australia it is already there !
- USA, it is already there in Texas, Colorado and so on extending east and north mainly.
...
For me the post is below ! Just go to your profile account>modify profile>look and layout
I changed :  -Return to topics after posting by default.
                       -Show most recent posts at the top
« Last Edit: April 21, 2013, 11:37:52 AM by Laurent »

Daniel Bailey

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2013, 04:02:35 PM »
As an FYI, that PDSI warming scenario Paul references is from UCAR researcher Aiguo Dai's 2010 paper, "Drought Under Global Warming:  A Review"
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/Dai-drought_WIRES2010.pdf

I reviewed Dai's paper in this 2011 blog post at Skeptical Science, "The Dai after Tomorrow"
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Dai_et_al_2010.html

As a final note, the UCAR servers are currently experiencing issues, so long load times are occurring.

Vergent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2013, 04:10:14 PM »

Laurent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2013, 10:20:39 AM »
Here a map of the temperatures estimated (it is not drough but it should not be very different).
from :
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.full.pdf+html
In France we are experiencing already some drough stronger than previously. But all the places are not hit the same way, the rain may fall on one place but not 50km further.

Laurent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2013, 02:23:18 PM »

wili

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2013, 04:43:31 AM »
Great graphic, L.

It looks as if the US drought continues it's pattern of weakening on the east side, while spreading and strengthening in the west--with drought and abnormally dry conditions now almost all the way up the Pacific coast, even into Washington state.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

El Nino's persistent refusal to show up this year presumably means that relief for the drought in the West will not come any time soon?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

JimD

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2013, 08:17:48 PM »
Readers might find some location specific data regarding drought and long-term trends interesting in light of all the above.  Data is for 3 Arizona cities.  Flagstaff in the north.  Prescott 90 miles south of Flagstaff, and Phoenix 100 miles south of Prescott.

FLAGSTAFF, AZ
Located in northern AZ about 90 miles north of Prescott at 7400 ft in thick pine forests.
 
Historical average annual precip 21.77 inches

Total precip inches
2006   22.47
2007   16.92
2008   21.95
2009   12.94
2010   32.04
2011   14.06
2012   10.68
2013    ~1.50 to date

Average precip 2006-2012  18.72 inches.  Or 86% of historical average.


PRESCOTT, AZ
Prescott is a mountain town at 5400 ft elevation and sits in a pine forest in the middle of the state.

Historical precip annual average (incl 1898 to 2005) is 19.04 inches

Total precipitation inches
2006 11.38
2007 15.39
2008 17.08
2009 11.28
2010 15.17
2011 13.34
2012 9.22
2013 2.12 thru today

2006-2012 average annual precip 13.27 inches

2006-2012 average is only 70% of historical average.

1998 was the last year in Prescott when annual precip was ABOVE the historical average. By far the longest stretch of time in the 114 year record. One could probably make the claim that the old records are not relevant any longer and new normals have set in.  I note, in light of the IPO/PDO discussion that 1998 is when the current negative phase of the PDO started and was, of course, the date of our last strong El Nino.


PHOENIZ, AZ
Is located in the 'Valley" of AZ at 1117 ft in the Sonoran Desert.

Historical average annual precipitation  8.07 inches

Total precipitation in inches
2006   5.88
2007   5.74
2008   6.57
2009   2.68
2010   12.26
2011   4.38
2012   4.46
2013   2.02 to date

2006-2012 average 6.00 inches.  Or 74% of the historical average.

For all cities one can see the effect of the last 3 years of drought pretty clearly, but also that since 2006 (7 1/2 years of data) that a significant decline from the norm has happened across the breadth of AZ as would be expected given the drought predictions.  It is obviously too early to state that the long-term precipitation decline is already underway, but the data is leaning that way. 


We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

OldLeatherneck

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2013, 08:55:04 PM »
Having previously lived in Arizona for a total of nearly 20 years at different times, I can attest to the fact that rainfall patterns are have changed and cities like Prescott and Phoenix are threatened.

I would like to point out one factor from the above tables.  The rainfall to date in 2013 is somewhat misleading.  The annual monsoon rains do not start until around the 4th of July and last until the middle of August.  It is the monsoon rains that generally provide 50% of the annual totals.  As an example, when I lived near Tucson the annual rainfall was about 12", with almost 6 inches in the typical 6-week monsoon season.

For the record, Flagstaff  and Prescott get more winter rain from Pacific storms than Phoenix and Tucson because the Jet Stream does not always swing far enough south.  Prescott is threatened with water shortages because it is on a plateau with no watershed from higher mountains, whereas Flagstaff has the runoff of snow melt from surrounding mountains.  Phoenix gets less rain than Tucson because many summer monsoons do not reach that far north and west.  Whereas, Sierra Vista, Tombstone and Bisbee get significantly more monsoon rain than Tucson, although they only range from 70 - 100 miles Southeast of Tucson.
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JimD

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2013, 09:34:03 PM »
OLN,

Your point about the monsoons is a little overstated.  For example Prescott is at 38% of its normal rainfall for this date.  The other cities are also well below average (though I did not calculate them).  The news here in AZ has been talking about numbers like 50% of normal for the last few weeks and everyone is wishing (praying) for the monsoons to hit.  I live in Prescott and the last moisture at our house was in early April.

But what we are looking at for later in the week are temps from 117 to 124 in various parts of AZ and forecasts of as high as 129 in Death Valley.  This heat wave is expected to last for around a week.  It has been  above average in temps for weeks.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

OldLeatherneck

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #21 on: June 26, 2013, 09:56:04 PM »
JimD,

Thanks for the clarification.  Good luck with the oncoming monsoon season.  I think Prescott is a very charming area, although I've only been there 3 or 4 times.

That heat wave sound horrendous.  In 1994, when we were moving our lab facilities from Southern California, I had the distinct pleasure of driving one of our pickup trucks, without air conditioning, across the CA/AZ border on a June day with temps approaching 120.  Were it not for a bucket of ice and a wash cloth, it would have been insufferable.
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ritter

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #22 on: June 26, 2013, 11:01:07 PM »
If I lived anywhere in the Southwest, I'd be migrating. Now.

In the Northern Bay Area of California, we just experienced two days of rain. As a kid and adult, I've always loved summer rains (we only rarely get them in California) but they were typically the type associated with thunderstorms (sudden, intermittent and short-lived). I don't ever recall a full day of rain, let alone 2. We got 1.5 inches which is unheard of. This is on the heals of the driest Jan-March period ever recorded in Northern California. We are expected to be in the mid-90s tomorrow. The humidity should be awesome.

Things have changed in the climate. The "worst" was being reported from all over the world in 2012, only to be broken this year. 100-year events have become 10-year events. And it does not look like we've come near to an equilibrium. Will 1000-year events become the norm? No one knows.

JimD

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #23 on: June 27, 2013, 05:41:02 PM »
Ritter,

Well if I was young I would be looking for other digs but I chose this place when I had to retire (physically required) from owning and running my organic farm in Virginia.  It is a great place to live.  We have beautiful sunny days about 320 days a year.  I live in a nice little house and have very low energy requirements compared to most places in the US.  We are in the mountains of AZ so it is not like living in Phoenix.  We are about 20 degrees cooler on average and we have the advantage of being high in elevation in the desert so when the sun goes down it cools off really fast.  On days when it is towards 95-100 degrees one 'might' need to turn the AC on, but only from maybe 7-10 pm and then it is open the doors and windows and let the cool breeze blow through.  If it is windy in the afternoon one does not need AC at all.  So almost no AC requirements and very little heat requirement either (there is very little winter and with AGW it is going away anyway).  Not bad.  It is very cheap to live here compared to most places in the US too.  90% of the shopping we need to do is within 2 miles of our house and can be walked if one is inclined.  There is endless hiking and backpacking, I swim 3 days a week, bike all over, we have concerts almost every week, art shows, farmers markets (yes we have farms here), tons to do, little crime (a lot of us pack guns), nice people.  A lot of wacko conservative/anarchists too but as a general rule they are harmless.

Water is an issue but the wife and I grew up in Wyoming and were raised using water conservation techniques.  We save grey water for our plants and collect off the roof from the rains.  We can garden here  with some restrictions due to cold temps at night in the spring.  Long-term there are certainly going to be supply issues and people will have to change how they use water.  But like a lot of things there is a lot of slack due to poor water conservation and as that gets forcibly worked out it will extend the real crunch time out some years.  I expect that it will be a least 30 years before there is a forced population migration even from Phoenix let alone here.  And, if we conserved using all methods maybe longer.  If I live another 30 years I would be the oldest that a man has ever lived in my family.  I will turn off the lights before I take that last sleep :)   
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ritter

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #24 on: June 27, 2013, 07:35:14 PM »
JimD,

Yes, all situations are different and yours sounds well thought out. I've only spent a bit of time in Arizona, around Sedona on a CO2 emitting road trip through Zion, Bryce and the Grand Canyon 15 years ago. Beautiful country.

I speak from the position of a 40 year old with a soon to be tweener daughter. I've settled on a California location 20 miles inland from the Pacific. Who can say if it is the right call at this point. If I had more marketable skills and money, I'd likely be looking to Canada as a longer term strategy. As I've said in other threads, I think luck will have a lot to do with the future.

wili

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #25 on: June 30, 2013, 10:38:29 PM »
Joe Romm CP has a new article on the drought and connections with GW:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/06/30/2236751/scientists-predicted-a-decade-ago-arctic-ice-loss-would-worsen-western-droughts-is-that-happening-already/

Scientists Predicted A Decade Ago Arctic Ice Loss Would Worsen Western Droughts. Is That Happening Already?


Quote
Scientists predicted a decade ago that Arctic ice loss would bring on worse western droughts. Arctic ice loss has been much faster than the researchers — and indeed all climate modelers — expected (see “CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed“).

It just so happens that the western U.S. is in the grip of a brutal, record-breaking drought. Is this just an amazing coincidence — or were the scientists right and what would that mean for the future?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

TerryM

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #26 on: June 30, 2013, 11:55:41 PM »
Wili
Thanks for the link to a great article!


Observed precipitation seems to be lower than in the 2004 simulations (50 – 70% of ‘normal’ in the Sierras vs ~85 – 90% of normal in the simulations) based on snowfall data from 2011/2012.
What they predicted for 2050 is taking place now. except it's worse now than what they predicted for 2050!  I'd like to see their predictions for 2100 so that I won't be too surprised in 2025.


The floods in western Canada in 2011 that are this year inundating Alberta were part of their forecast as well as the droughts in the southwest. Helps make the case that Calgary's wounds may have been self inflicted.


Terry




Laurent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2014, 08:43:00 PM »

Laurent

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2016, 12:12:14 PM »

AbruptSLR

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Re: US Drought Monitor
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2016, 10:40:44 PM »
In the linked article, Scribbler discusses the low water levels in Lake Mead as an example of drought implications for the US Southwest:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/23/water-knives-in-the-near-future-16-year-drought-brings-lake-mead-to-new-record-low/

Extract: "It’s been ridiculously hot along the unstoppable shrinking shoreline at Lake Mead. Over the past four days, highs have peaked at a scorching 109 to 111 F (42 to 44 C). Similar heat blasted all up and down the Colorado River Basin, squeezing moisture out of a key water supply for 25 million people in California, Arizona, and Nevada."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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