Some more boring numbers based on JAXA data. 5 days of somewhat modest melt has reduced the arithmetic projections of the 2017 minimum somewhat, as the little table below shows. Melt required is from June 26 to minmum.
As at June 26 Melt required % of 2007/2016 avge Resulting Minimum
For 2016 Result 5,392,500 101.3% 4,017,264
For 2012 Result 6,232,309 117.0% 3,177,455
For 2007 Result 5,344,025 100.4% 4,065,739
Avge 2007-2016 melt 5,325,075 100.0% 4,084,689
For 1 million km2 8,409,764 157.9% 1,000,000
With about 80 days of the melting season left, of which about 10 are usually of minimal melting, the possibility of 1 million km2 or even a 2012 result look remote. However, it still looks as if an awful lot of ice is just waiting to die.