The 2018/2019 freezing season

[uniquorn]

There may be some evidence of persistent upwelling north of Svalbard. The uni-hamburg amsr2 animation below (oct1-nov5) has been heavily contrasted on the right hand side to bring out the lower concentration areas (edit:some of the transient blue is weather). The area with persistent low concentration, even as the ice moves across it, is marked on the left.
The polarview image (nov5) shows the rough location of the possible upwelling and what may be a recently melted area that is heading towards the Fram Strait.
This may not be a new feature, perhaps the ice is now thin enough to reveal it. Mercator model is interesting in that area. Will post the bigger animations in the salinity thread later.

[oren]

Thank you A-TeamUniquorn for the animation.

[RoxTheGeologist]

That's interesting! Lets see if it stays. It's over a high spot of the Yermak Plateau. But that plateau is 500m deep.

[jdallen]

That's interesting! Lets see if it stays. It's over a high spot of the Yermak Plateau. But that plateau is 500m deep.

That would still produce significant turbulence because of pressure backing up behind it.  The warmer more saline flows at depth may *be* as much as 500m thick and even if not, their laminar flow could be seriously disrupted.

[johnm33]

There was a low over SZ/Laptev that moved over Siberia, that and the low in the Greenland sea may have caused the movement of deeper water. Eyeballing puts it over the peninsular[?] part of the plateau, -760m. Detail from

[Aluminium]

November 2-6.

[Pmt111500]

November 2-6.

Chukchi starts to freeze later than Kara ( always forget the correct spelling of Tšuktsi) like the habit has been in recent years. Now the freezing should slow down to form the early winter Atlantic front somewhere on Kara. Interesting to see for how long ChucHi and Bering stay open,.

[slow wing]

Wow! Great spot Uniquorn at #651!

And nice context Rox at #653!

That is indeed very interesting!

[uniquorn]

Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6

[jdallen]

Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6

I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.

[bbr2314]

Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6

I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.

Don't forget Hudson's impending rapid ice up. But Chukchi, Barents, and Bering are going to result in a veryyyyy long stall afterwards, IMO. Baffin and Kara will be the only areas gaining.

Also: tonight's 00z EURO opens a black hole in Baffin. Wonder how this looks come verification / imagine it is substantially less progressive.



And it is not coincidental it is corresponding with what's unfolding over Quebec........ 2018 vs. 2017. Last year was phenomenal. And this year.... WTF!

[Neven]

bbr2314, when you post forecast maps, please indicate how many days out it is. For most people it isn't clear and they may think it's going to happen in the next few days, whereas with you it's mostly D8-10. Thanks.

[bbr2314]

bbr2314, when you post forecast maps, please indicate how many days out it is. For most people it isn't clear and they may think it's going to happen in the next few days, whereas with you it's mostly D8-10. Thanks.

Will do!

The event ^ is getting going by D5-6 btw. So its origins are already well within reliable modeling. The question is how strong it gets and where it bombs out.

[psymmo7]

Thank you SimonF92,
the article about the Polar Vortex (PV) and how the imprecise use of terminology can lead to confusion was most informative.
I can otherwise only echo your sentiment about respect.

[RoxTheGeologist]

Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6

I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.

From what I have read here you will find a strong consensus on this forum agreeing with you. It's going to be an interesting freeze season.

[Aluminium]

November 4-8.

[gerontocrat]

Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6

I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.

From what I have read here you will find a strong consensus on this forum agreeing with you. It's going to be an interesting freeze season.

Maybe yes, maybe no.

After a brief 3 days of low extent gains, JAXA extent gain for 8 Nov was 100k, 40 k above average.
Arctic temp anomalies dropping according to GFS - from nearly +3 to about +1 celsius within 5 days. But in the other hand the low average anomalies are countered by higher anomalies along the Atlantic front and in the Pacific gateway (reflecting SST +ve anomalies?).

[be cause]

I was wondering have the Atlantic and Pacific fronts ever been so close this time of year ? b.c.

[Sleepy]

Yes, especially in 2016. Here's 20021108-20181108.

[jdallen]

Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6

I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.

From what I have read here you will find a strong consensus on this forum agreeing with you. It's going to be an interesting freeze season.

Maybe yes, maybe no.

After a brief 3 days of low extent gains, JAXA extent gain for 8 Nov was 100k, 40 k above average.
Arctic temp anomalies dropping according to GFS - from nearly +3 to about +1 celsius within 5 days. But in the other hand the low average anomalies are countered by higher anomalies along the Atlantic front and in the Pacific gateway (reflecting SST +ve anomalies?).

Conundrums;

Higher coverage means less direct heat exchange to the atmosphere via evaporation and convection.
Less convection, etc. With less influx from lower latitudes equals lower 80N temps
Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

[uniquorn]

Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

Agreed, also rapid freeze at low temperatures probably means more brine in the ice.
Full size animation of ascat, oct18-nov9 as it is deliniating the different ice types so well at the moment (after enhancement).

The atlantic is still at work under the new ice front until the halocline/pynocline settles down.
amsr2-uhh, oct31-nov9, forward and back.

[Aluminium]

November 6-10.

[uniquorn]

Some clearer skies recently on worldview using viirs brightness temperature band15, day or night. Here is an example showing the area north Greenland, nov12, using 2 different colour palettes. Despite the cold temperatures, the ice to the east of Ellesmere still looks in bad condition.

https://tinyurl.com/ydbuy7aj
edit: according to worldview scale, yellow ~0C, light blue ~-46C
 

[Feeltheburn]

Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

I recently quoted you on this point you made last year when early freezing occurred rapidly. However, this year I drew a different conclusion: in 2018 the refreeze was the slowest on record, which gave the arctic more time to release ocean heat into the atmosphere. Therefore, the current faster trend of ice formation is consistent with less heat remaining in the water (even though air temps are currently above average).

[Aluminium]

November 8-12.

[Niall Dollard]

Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

I recently quoted you on this point you made last year when early freezing occurred rapidly. However, this year I drew a different conclusion: in 2018 the refreeze was the slowest on record, which gave the arctic more time to release ocean heat into the atmosphere. Therefore, the current faster trend of ice formation is consistent with less heat remaining in the water (even though air temps are currently above average).

SSTs declining steadily in the Chukchi too with frequent winds coming from a north to east direction, stripping the heat from the top layer of the ocean. The Chukchi SSTs are coming from a very high point but there is a lot of heat being lost here now.

In comparison to this time last year when we had frequent southerly incursions up the Bering Strait.

[Feeltheburn]

A guy at NASA just came out with a report saying we will have unusually cold weather starting in about 6 weeks because of persistent lack of sunspot activity. This low has been predicted for years and we’ll see how it affects earth temperatures. Who know but maybe we will get heavy freezing this year over the arctic and see a much needed recovery to ice such as we haven’t seen for decades.

If there is to be such a recovery we need two things: very strong and persistent ice formation this freezing season and cool 2019 with slow ice melt to preserve ice going into next year’s freeze.

[Neven]

A guy at NASA just came out with a report saying we will have unusually cold weather starting in about 6 weeks because of persistent lack of sunspot activity. This low has been predicted for years and we’ll see how it affects earth temperatures. Who know but maybe we will get heavy freezing this year over the arctic and see a much needed recovery to ice such as we haven’t seen for decades.

If there is to be such a recovery we need two things: very strong and persistent ice formation this freezing season and cool 2019 with slow ice melt to preserve ice going into next year’s freeze.

I agree, but it will take some really extreme weather to have the ice return to 2005-2006 levels. And when sunspots eventually go up again (assuming this short-term forcing negates all of long-term AGW), ice will melt with a vengeance.

[Feeltheburn]

I agree, but it will take some really extreme weather to have the ice return to 2005-2006 levels. And when sunspots eventually go up again (assuming this short-term forcing negates all of long-term AGW), ice will melt with a vengeance.

Agreed. I don't think there would be any grounds for predicting extreme cold weather except for the low sun spot activity.

Still, you mention 2005-2006 levels as a good standard. According to NSIDC, 2018 just surpassed 2006 in ice extent for 11-12 and is not far behind 2005, 2003 and 2002!

[oren]

FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".

[bbr2314]

FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".

FTB is making stuff up, SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. Whenever someone says "but solar!" it is cause for automatic dismissal as it means they are a denier.

[litesong]

On November 17, 2016 the Arctic sea ice, during this normal period of strong sea ice increases, actually began losing sea ice & strong ice losses occurred in the week(?) ahead! It was NOT coincidental that the greatest anomalous High Arctic temperature increase from normal also occurred.
Tho 2018 Arctic sea ice had very lethargic sea ice increases this beginning season, presently it is roughly 0.8 million square kilometers MORE than to-date 2016. During the period of to-date 2016 ice loss, it appears the days ahead for 2018 Arctic & High Arctic anomalous temperatures will not be high. Matter of fact, the anomalous low temperatures of Canada this cooling season(as well as last year), have & will expand strongly to the U.S.(Kansas & Oklahoma already 20degC below normal & strong cooling round-abouts) AND even lowering anomalous temperatures into the High Arctic. It appears that to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice will have to strongly increase in comparison to 2016 to-date Arctic sea ice for a week(?) or so.       

[uniquorn]

amsr2-uhh, oct12-nov12, hudson bay, foxe basin and baffin bay (2MB)

[Niall Dollard]

FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".

SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. .

Baffin yes. Hudson - not much contribution yet and you have ignored recent increase in the Kara.

[bbr2314]

FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".

SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. .

Baffin yes. Hudson - not much contribution yet and you have ignored recent increase in the Kara.

But Kara isn't + vs. normal (I am only talking + vs. normal), at least I don't think it is. Everything is refreezing poorly EXCEPT areas where freshwater has flushed and snowcover remained extant late and fell early. This invalidates the notion that "more open water has resulted in a faster refreeze because more heat has escaped" because the OPPOSITE has occurred in the High Arctic (and SSTs are warmest-ever in the Bering and Barentz, despite all that open water allegedly allowing for rapid refreeze........)

HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.

[bbr2314]

PS

The EURO is doing something rather remarkable off the NE seaboard. From 00z hrs to 240 there is an ENORMOUS bulge of warmth that approaches the coast thanks to the Gulf Stream. Evidently all the cold air falling out of Greenland / Canada into the NATL is advecting this through its ensuing generation of low pressure systems drifting NW towards the seaboard (?)

The bulk of the change occurs hours 120->168 but I am posting a GIF of 0->240 because it also continues thereafter.



This year is evidently going to have much more oceanic fuel for +SWE in Canada / beyond, even with levels already absurdly high. I think the combination of very cold Hudson Bay vs. normal combined with very warm ATL will yield snow totals beyond last year's in North America, and a very delayed melt for Baffin, Hudson, and CAA in 2019 (but those will be the ONLY regions to benefit from this phenomenon as it currently stands, IMO, with ice volume & concentrations likely worsening everywhere else -- maybe with Kara as exception).

[Pmt111500]

amsr2-uhh, oct12-nov12, hudson bay, foxe basin and baffin bay (2MB)

Aww, the currents present in the area make it hard to follow the refreeze and transport. But well done to catch the start of the freeze up here

[gerontocrat]

In recent days, the main culprits for above average area gain are:-

Baffin
CAA
Beaufort
ESS
Graphs attached (yes I know should be on extent and area data thread, but what the hell).

Laptev also, Kara joining in. (graphs on next post)


Hudson barely started.

[gerontocrat]

Laptev filled up on steroids. Will Kara do the same.?

[magnamentis]

that will be fun to see HB cover up to 75% during the next 2 days.

it's a very good example for extreme bias that bbr posted today the same nonsense that hudson bay is partly responsible for recent above average gain while in fact hudson is getting behind and did contribute close to nothing and certainly won't be 75% covered in 2 days, not even 50%, probably not even 35%. just admit that it was a false assumption like i expected a significant stall in refreeze while in fact it was very short, hence did not happen the way i speculated/predicted.

[bbr2314]

that will be fun to see HB cover up to 75% during the next 2 days.

it's a very good example for extreme bias that bbr posted today the same nonsense that hudson bay is partly responsible for recent above average gain while in fact hudson is getting behind and did contribute close to nothing and certainly won't be 75% covered in 2 days, not even 50%, probably not even 35%. just admit that it was a false assumption like i expected a significant stall in refreeze while in fact it was very short, hence did not happen the way i speculated/predicted.

...did you bother reading my post or are you just angry and illiterate?

QUOTING FOR YOU

HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.

FYI, the freezing point of water is somewhere between 28-32F depending on salinity, and much of Hudson Bay is fairly fresh. Since you don't seem to know this.

[be cause]

  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

[magnamentis]

  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author

[gerontocrat]

  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author

I am confident in predicting that over a good number of years Arctic Sea ice will decline.
I have zero confidence in predicting what Hudson Bay will do in the next week.

[Neven]

I agree, but it will take some really extreme weather to have the ice return to 2005-2006 levels. And when sunspots eventually go up again (assuming this short-term forcing negates all of long-term AGW), ice will melt with a vengeance.

Agreed. I don't think there would be any grounds for predicting extreme cold weather except for the low sun spot activity.

Still, you mention 2005-2006 levels as a good standard. According to NSIDC, 2018 just surpassed 2006 in ice extent for 11-12 and is not far behind 2005, 2003 and 2002!

Sorry, I wasn't clear. When I say 2005-2006 levels, I'm referring to the minimum, unless we are talking about volume.

[bbr2314]

[magnamentis]

  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author

I am confident in predicting that over a good number of years Arctic Sea ice will decline.
I have zero confidence in predicting what Hudson Bay will do in the next week.

agree but i'm confident to predict that we won't see anything like 75% or 50% coverage while it's definitely a pond that's gonna freeze very fast once starting in serious

[bbr2314]

  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author

I am confident in predicting that over a good number of years Arctic Sea ice will decline.
I have zero confidence in predicting what Hudson Bay will do in the next week.

agree but i'm confident to predict that we won't see anything like 75% or 50% coverage while it's definitely a pond that's gonna freeze very fast once starting in serious

It is currently "flash freezing" from the NE as the cold reaches past a saline area separating most of HB from Foxe Basin. Most of that yellow in NE HB appeared since yesterday.

[aperson]

...did you bother reading my post or are you just angry and illiterate?

QUOTING FOR YOU

HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.

Maybe they were referring to your original post:

By 10/25, Foxe Basin should be entirely covered, by 11/15, Hudson should be mostly complete (I will say 75-85% at that point). We can revisit this post 11/16 and see if I am wrong.

You made a falsifiable forecast and it busted. Kudos to you for actually making a falsifiable prediction for once. However, accept your estimation error instead of shifting the goalposts.

[bbr2314]

...did you bother reading my post or are you just angry and illiterate?

QUOTING FOR YOU

HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.

Maybe they were referring to your original post:

By 10/25, Foxe Basin should be entirely covered, by 11/15, Hudson should be mostly complete (I will say 75-85% at that point). We can revisit this post 11/16 and see if I am wrong.

You made a falsifiable forecast and it busted. Kudos to you for actually making a falsifiable prediction for once. However, accept your estimation error instead of shifting the goalposts.

I am accepting the error? The forecast was still close to reality. It isn't even 11/15 yet. And it won't be frozen 75% by then. But 11/20? I am not so sure. The point is not that I am wrong or right, the point is that HUDSON BAY IS FREEZING EARLY and this has impacts to sensible weather elsewhere (IMO).

Bering has ALWAYS frozen before Hudson since XXXX years ago. Maybe centuries? But in the modern record, I highly doubt we will have ever had as much open water in Bering vs. Hudson as we will a week or so from now. This relative differential is very important because it means cold airmasses can center on North America much earlier and much more steadily vs. normal, anchored by the heat domes in Bering / Barentz on both sides (+500MB anomalies), and this will result in MAJOR oceanic warmth pushing towards the High Arctic as the continental albedo / oceanic heat pump is kicking into ever-higher gear.