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Author Topic: 2019 Predictions  (Read 892 times)

johnm33

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2019 Predictions
« on: December 22, 2018, 11:05:54 AM »
In the rest so as not to limit it to the Arctic and Ice
Only one and it's qualified,
IF the Beaufort Gyre goes ac/cc-wise then we'll see Atlantic waters circulating the Arctic and a rapid clearence of the CAA and accelerated flow into the Arctic from both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2018, 11:18:31 AM »
The Antarctic Sea Ice minimum extent will be well below 2 million km2 (on both JAXA and NSIDC measures).

CO2 emissions in the UK will reduce mainly because the economy will be heading south.
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Wherestheice

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2018, 08:04:49 PM »
I’ll be the doomer and say we will get near ice free conditions, As well as learn a lot more about the arctic methane.
"When the ice goes..... F***

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2018, 08:32:25 PM »
sometimes, after many weeks/months of not reading certains sources/posts, from time to time when i think the topic/thread is innocent enough, i open one of them and 90% regret.

i predict that planet earth will evaporate one day once our sun became a read giant, it will happen exactly like the arctic will be (almost) ice free one day and those who predict it each year to happen this time will all be right one day. i suspect those bragging rights are why they do it because i can't see any way that this will happen next year. one simply has to calculate the energy needed to melt the reminder in ice volume, mainly in the CAA and the CAB, even starting from 2012's minimum, there won't be enough time and sufficient energy resources to finish the job, not even close.
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crandles

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2018, 04:19:25 PM »
I predict it will remain boringly near the low edge:

eg this years report card says:
Quote
In 2018 Arctic sea ice remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past. The 12 lowest extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last 12 years.

So I predict next year it will say
In 2019 Arctic sea ice remained younger, thinner, and covered less area than in the past. The 13 lowest extents in the satellite record have occurred in the last 13 years.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2018, 04:41:25 PM »
I predict that many of the things we wished for 30 years ago will become reality.

Renewable energy will massively gain ground. The knowledge about climate change will enter the common sense.

But we will also learn that the window, where we could have prevented the things to come, closed a long time ago.

Klondike Kat

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2018, 05:58:53 PM »
I predict this will be a rather blasé year, with little excitement or drama.

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2018, 08:39:23 AM »
2019? More of the same. Little to no systemic changes. Much denial. Same ol' posturing. Slight increase in cynicism with occasional outbursts of frustration to little or no effect. Many more places get burnt to the ground - just not the same ones as in 2018. ASI hits a maximum and then hits a minimum, all within margins of error. Lots of talk coupled with very little action on any front.
American journalist Walter Lippmann observed, “Where all think alike, no one thinks very much!”
To Solve Climate Change ~ Change the System, because it changes nothing when nothing changes!

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2019, 08:24:00 AM »
What's the first thing all 'freedom loving democratic govts in the WEST' do the moment the people get restless?

Why go hard ass of course and introduce new laws to "fix" all the "bad" people .... something that apparently hadn't been needed for the last 250 years or so for they all survived OK without such Laws before now.

So what's so different today in France (and elsewhere) than in the 80s or the 60s or the 30s or the 1800s? 

You can expect to see much more of this in 2019 and into 2020 as Toto pulls back the green curtain to expose a little more of the real Wizard of Oz .....................

--- ---

 French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has said that the government will crack down on unauthorized protests and toughen punishment for rioting in the wake of anti-government Yellow Vest demonstrations which began in November.

The new measures will significantly toughen punishment for people who participate in riots, Philippe said, while adding that it was still “necessary to preserve the freedom” to demonstrate in France. Those who want to protest peacefully should not be punished, he said.

The announcement comes as part of new “public order” measures unveiled by the government after the Yellow Vest protests resulted in violence against police officers and government buildings.

    #BREAKING France will clamp down on unauthorized protests after "yellow vest" clashes, the prime minister says pic.twitter.com/bik0SCZm9w
    — AFP news agency (@AFP) January 7, 2019

Philippe’s office said in a statement on Monday that the government would take “a very firm stance” against the “continued unacceptable violence across the country.”
American journalist Walter Lippmann observed, “Where all think alike, no one thinks very much!”
To Solve Climate Change ~ Change the System, because it changes nothing when nothing changes!

Avalonian

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2019, 12:05:17 PM »
New record in mean global temperature, even with a moderate El Nino ongoing.

Tons more local heat records in various parts of the world, including some areas that haven't yet been overburdened with them (due to increased climatic volatility).

Sea ice..? Could do anything; the local heat budgets are in flux, and if there's a long, hot Arctic summer then we can easily see a new record; if not, then we won't, but Siberia and Canada will burn. Something's got to give, but I don't think that which part thing breaks is predictable any more (if it ever was).

Politics... governments start going more hard-line, and climate protesters start upping the ante (bigly!). The results of these clashes will start to reveal which countries are really willing to make economic sacrifices for the greater good, and which will cling to their industry and expected quality of life until the bitter end. 

It's still too early to see sci-fi-style societal collapses or feedback doom... but it's late enough that the trend will become even more clear.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2019, 04:05:08 PM »
Predictions? In 2019
*the mutual destruction pact between Russia and Trumpistan is revealed, this leads to top10000 international companies to re-evaluate their dependence on fossil energy.
*as a result, Saudi Arabia and North Korea abandon their dominant belief systems to join the rest of the world.
*Israel claims to be the world wide empire due extensive neandertal heritage of its citizens and this is accepted, but only in name. Thankful israelites launch an attack on egypt to revenge the imprisonment by anatomically modern humans but is forced to abandon this endeavor since newly elected heads of atomic powers decide to destroy Jerusalem with nukes. "Let them show the magnitude of their faith", they say, "Jerusalem is now free for all".
*The new Indian government declares a strict zero-child policy until the country has achieved carbon neutrality.
*Australia builds a solar-powered railway network cross country, the surplus energy is used to water the lake Eyre area with fresh water. They welcome all shit from around the globe with no better use to the area to generate fertile soil to feed the evacuees of Oceania.
*The sub-Saharan Africa builds a wall of windmills cross the desert, this creates a new rain regime for the itcz, thus eliminating any famines between 25n and 25s.
*United States start to harvest energy from the Gulf Stream, the joint project with Cuba will use not only the current, but also uses heat-exchange to cool the north Atlantic back to 1980s levels. Russia does the same with Bering Strait.
*In Finland, people will still be miserable waiting for the local bus standing without cover in raining sleet.

Pretty sure of at least one
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2019, 05:01:07 PM »
Nice Pmt111500,

i'll take you up on that! :)

pearscot

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2019, 05:42:45 PM »
My 2019 predictions: First, I think we will see a moderate El Nino. Second, I think the U.S. and the world will begin to slip into a recession as tariffs and the most cowardly president/administration cause as much humanitarian harm as possible. Third, I think more of a proxy war will develop in Syria. Fourth, I think the atlantification of the arctic will continue to worsen as bottom melt.
pls!

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 Predictions
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2019, 05:36:55 AM »
Nice Pmt111500,

i'll take you up on that! :)
I know I forgot china and south america (which is not a state of trumpistan) from the list, but still the last one happened already yesterday. Here are the missing ones:

*China breaks every copyright law and with the tech obtained founds a moon base on the opposite side. Mass migration ensues and coal plant shutdowns on earth de-veil the northern Pacific making Seattle-Vancouver a new tropical destination.
" In south america the Trumpistani refugees develop a new language that spells english correctly i.e. phonetically. They also adopt the metric system. Still nobody understands them.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 07:31:24 AM by Pmt111500 »
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.