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When will the Jaxa extent maximum happen?

Feb 21 - Feb 28
7 (18.9%)
Mar 1 - Mar 5
4 (10.8%)
Mar 6 - Mar 10
6 (16.2%)
Mar 11 - Mar 15
13 (35.1%)
Mar 16 - Mar 20
4 (10.8%)
Mar 21 - Mar 25
3 (8.1%)
Mar 26 - Mar 31
0 (0%)
April
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 37

Voting closed: February 25, 2019, 07:58:43 AM

Author Topic: Guess the date of the max  (Read 2553 times)

Paddy

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Guess the date of the max
« on: February 21, 2019, 07:58:43 AM »
Take a guess on when we'll hit the Jaxa maximum. No overlapping bins this time - apologies. And you have just 4 days from now to pick a date because we're getting close to it.

Feel free to post an exact date below as well.

Dates of the max from previous years can be seen on the sea ice extent thread (thank you Gerontocrat).

You can change your vote any time until the poll closes. You can see the poll results pnpy after the poll closes.

Have fun!

EDIT: I'm tempted to go super early for Feb since temps are forecast to rise the next few days, but I'm settling for a middle of the road March 11h - 15th, guessing that it'll be about March 12th.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2019, 07:31:32 PM by Paddy »

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2019, 03:07:47 PM »
No Idea seams pretty random to me but it does seem to be moving to later in the year.

magnamentis

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2019, 04:10:27 PM »
one of the next 2-7 days

why:

a) we've seen a few days of relatively steep increase now and it's hard to guess how many will follow, my guess is 0-3 more of such days.

b) as we know after each steep increase/decrease there follows kind of counter reaction when ice
will reach warmer waters/regions/weather ( or thicker ice during melt )

c) if we consider that such a counter reaction will last 2-5 days and DEPENDING on the scale of that counter reaction we would have to make up for the losses again before reaching a new high.

d) if we count the days together we would reach the end of the counter move around the end of the month and would need 2 10 days to make up for the losses because 10 days around this time is a lot of insolation increase in some places and wamer air starting to flow in.

hence the chance that we won't be able to make up for the losses after the counter move downwards ends is bigger by each day we reach into march and af a new high is not reached by the second week of march chances are very high that the next peak will be the high for this season.

as we all know it's only a theory and we can see a new peak in a few weeks if things go well for the ice but somehow i believe that the ever warmer oceans will sooner or later put an early limit to that kind of event, let's see.
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Paddy

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2019, 04:14:50 PM »
 I'd been considering something similar magnamentis, but I went for a later guess as extent tends slightly more to go up than down in early March.

Incidentally, that first poll bin should really be read as 20-28 Feb, or just plain February. It's quite possible yesterday may have been the max (though I doubt it).

oren

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2019, 05:32:22 PM »
I chose Mar 6-10. For some strange reason I cannot see the vote results.
A bigger problem - is this poll for JAXA or NSIDC data? They don't necessarily have the same date for the max.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2019, 06:02:27 PM »
Oren,
When designing a poll on this forum, the creator has the option of keeping the results from displaying until the poll closes (just like the vote-changing option).  It might make us voters more honest, or something.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2019, 07:08:21 PM »
A bigger problem - is this poll for JAXA or NSIDC data? They don't necessarily have the same date for the max.

I was wondering that myself. And then I looked back. The top line above the date selections, it says JAXA.  :)

karl dubhe2

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2019, 07:12:23 PM »
Between the first and the fifth of March.    Because that's where the dart hit my calendar.    :D

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2019, 07:19:39 PM »
last year I picked 17.03 .. this year I would have picked 20.03 .. so same bin anyway .. can I win 2 years running ?
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Stephan

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2019, 07:31:42 PM »
Around March 13 is my guess.

Paddy

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2019, 07:35:01 PM »
I chose Mar 6-10. For some strange reason I cannot see the vote results.
A bigger problem - is this poll for JAXA or NSIDC data? They don't necessarily have the same date for the max.

Poll results will be visible once the poll closes. I prefer to wait this way on polls where the voting period isn't too long.

And as Niall said, this is based on the Jaxa max. Original post edited to make this clearer.

gerontocrat

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2019, 08:14:38 PM »
In the interests of adding confusion as opposed to clarity, here is a graph of dates of maximum mixing decadal averages with individual years, with what are probably 3 completely worthless trend lines to ensure the graph has -ve value.

Anyway I am going for the 15th March as recommended by my ouija board. After all, this is a science-oriented forum.

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Pmt111500

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2019, 08:39:50 PM »
In the interests of adding confusion as opposed to clarity, here is a graph of dates of maximum mixing decadal averages with individual years, "clip*
Thanks, gerontocrat. In my belief system there's a prediction that one of these years there must be a crash in the date of maximum spring extent. Thus in the hopes of confirming my belief I select the second earliest of the electable values. Selecting 2nd of March to be, God willing, the date when this turning point can happen. Basing this on the goodness of the God and her everlasting, strictly rationed love of deniers, like Delingpole. 2015 came up close to fullfilling the prediction but alas, the weather deity has again been testing my faith for the last couple of years.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Steven

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2019, 11:34:34 PM »
here is a graph of dates of maximum

The maximum in 2016 was on 29 February, not on 21 March as in your graph.

The long term trend for the date of maximum is only 0.8 days per decade (so about 3 days over the past 40 years), which is definitely not statistically significant.



Tealight

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2019, 11:49:06 PM »
Anyway I am going for the 15th March as recommended by my ouija board. After all, this is a science-oriented forum.

The 11th - 15th March category is almost completly empty in your graph. The average is just there because other years are earlier and later.

I voted 1-5th of March, but I feel it might be even earlier. Currently we have very high extent in the southern most regions of Sea of Okhotsk and around Newfoundland which melt early. The only region with significant growth potential is the Bering Sea.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 03:02:49 PM by Tealight »

oren

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2019, 01:36:25 AM »
Niall and Paddy thanks for the JAXA clarification. Missed it first time around.

Archimid

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2019, 02:40:17 AM »
Voted Mar 21 -25, but with the twist that we have an early faux-max and a relatively late real max.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Paddy

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2019, 06:39:00 AM »
After the latest rise, I've changed my mind and I am going to be bold enough to predict a Feb max. I reckon it's fairly likely this rise will turn around in the next few days and that the same heights will not be achieved again this year.

gerontocrat

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2019, 12:55:00 PM »

The maximum in 2016 was on 29 February, not on 21 March as in your graph.

Well spotted.

mea culpa - twice.

1.How do I deal with 29th Feb in my spreadsheets? Delete the day from my copy of the files.
2. Picked up the 2nd but lower maximum on the 21st March in error. Note the long period in 2016 of dithering around the maximum.

Still sticking with the 15th March. A pure guess that that is when the current pattern of a really cold Atlantic Front and Okhotsk Sea gives way, and dithering around the maximum in early March finally turns to consistent melt.
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Juan C. García

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2019, 06:27:35 AM »
Surely I will be wrong, but let's make a risky guess and put it on February.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

magnamentis

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2019, 09:06:05 PM »
up till now = spot on

2-3 more such days (or similar)and chances are high it will remain spot on or we shall see a max in mid march which is hard to believe, after all even much of the covered area has frozen only recently and will vanis on first wind/wave concert.

as always, events will tell and nature is boss but would be fun if that came around exactly that way ;)

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2577.msg189595.html#msg189595
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Juan C. García

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2019, 07:13:00 PM »
"Date of max" and "max", sorted by month and day.
On 2019, the max is to date (Feb 25th).
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 07:58:54 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2019, 07:27:40 PM »
Extent max and difference versus Feb 25th.

There are 24 years that didn't have the increase needed, to have a new max on 2019, versus the Feb 22, 2019 extent.
[Extent in "1,000,000 km2", Difference in "1,000 km2"]
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2019, 08:06:44 PM »
Extent max and difference versus Feb 25th.

There are 24 years that didn't have the increase needed, to have a new max on 2019, versus the Feb 22, 2019 extent.

Tomorrow will be interesting, very interesting.
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magnamentis

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2019, 09:07:35 PM »
two more such days and i think that was it while in fact it's about a week to go for a decent amount of certainty.

if tomorrow is an up day which i doubt looking at the pacific side that will probably compensate for the atlantic side but who knows, interesting days indeed.
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oren

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2019, 10:42:02 PM »
Late season growth statistics depend on beginning extent. JCG's table shows that most high growth years are post 2000.
From a different angle, a very low Bering extent leaves room for high potential growth should the right weather come along in the next 3 weeks.
Logically chances of a higher max are more than 50%. But my gut feeling insists we are done...

uniquorn

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #26 on: February 27, 2019, 01:05:43 AM »
I hope the logic works out oren, but the first 10 days of those 21 don't look too promising.
Windy ecmwf temperature forecast feb27

magnamentis

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #27 on: February 27, 2019, 01:18:09 PM »
should the bering really refreeze and considering the very fresh and very thin ice in st. lawrence and barents this could even be compensated.

only really cold weather on both sides for more than 1-2 days would make that chance really high (>50%)

todays move leaves us somewhere in the middle, no up-day and no significant drop anymore hence i see chances right now 50:50 but, like oren, with a personal tendency to say that we've seen it.

as long as we don't see the topic too sternly i like speculating a bit for the fun of it ;)

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jdallen

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #28 on: February 27, 2019, 08:12:03 PM »
As magnamentus alludes, we are in the transition from winter to spring, which means volatility would normally be high, even more so because of thin peripheral ice, cold SSTs, and greater total ocean heat imported from further south increasingly manifesting.


In heat terms, our cup overfloweth...
« Last Edit: March 02, 2019, 01:50:35 AM by jdallen »
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be cause

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2019, 01:43:25 AM »
it's a done deal some say .. but I'll wait and see .. b.c.
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magnamentis

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #30 on: March 02, 2019, 09:37:39 PM »
it's a done deal some say .. but I'll wait and see .. b.c.

i think we all wait and see ;)

i haven't seen many or any posts that would claim absolutely that we're done, it's all about reasoning and probabilities joint with a good portion of playfulness ;)
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Paddy

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #31 on: March 03, 2019, 10:48:42 AM »
I expect I'll call it if and when Gerontocrat's figures show that 0 out of the last 10 years' remaining freeze at this date would produce a new max.

gerontocrat

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2019, 01:29:44 PM »
I expect I'll call it if and when Gerontocrat's figures show that 0 out of the last 10 years' remaining freeze at this date would produce a new max.
2010 and 2014 remaining extent gain would still produce a new 2019 max.
Also,
- JAXA extent up 64k on 2 March,
- all that extreme heat in the Western Arctic is mainly just weakening ice in the CAB, while the cold on the Atlantic front could produce extent gain there,
- as the days progress the Arctic temp anomaly is dropping - could be -ve in a week or 10 days (coincidentally the extreme cold in North America looks like gradually fading away). See attached image (10 days away but GFS forecast doing rather well recently)

So still a chance of a late season surprise.
 
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2019, 02:58:34 PM »
I expect I'll call it if and when Gerontocrat's figures show that 0 out of the last 10 years' remaining freeze at this date would produce a new max.

I called it already:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591
 
However I wouldn't go so far as to wager the shirt on my back on having called it correctly!

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gerontocrat

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #34 on: March 05, 2019, 11:04:41 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,030,595 km2(March 4, 2019)

This is just 165k below the current maximum of 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 5 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of (just) MORE than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. the extent of 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum.It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +5 to +1 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -2 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, even though it is very late in the freezing season.

Not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #35 on: March 12, 2019, 09:46:32 AM »
Ah, this poll was for daily max and not for the daily monthly average one. Of course I'm off by several days then.
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magnamentis

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #36 on: March 12, 2019, 12:28:56 PM »
Ah, this poll was for daily max and not for the daily monthly average one. Of course I'm off by several days then.

yes you're right, nevertheless i consider my theory for a possible outcome from up-thread as "proven wrong" was a valid possibility but facts spoke another language.

was fun either way. see y'a all next year around the same time ;) ;)
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be cause

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Re: Guess the date of the max
« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2019, 04:09:29 PM »
only another 8 days to go to my anticipated peak . My confidence in a second stronger peak seems to already be justified . Unfortunately the concentration of cold in and around the Arctic may allow earlier melting of snow farther south and encourage a strong early melt ..
b.c.
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