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Tom_Mazanec

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Projecting to 2150
« on: June 01, 2019, 03:37:23 PM »
I think climate projections should start going out to 2150. When climate modeling (and other modeling like Club of Rome) began 2100 was about 13 decades away...now it is only about 8. The grandchildren of today's children might live to see 2150. And AGW will continue at least this long.
Will we still be projecting to 2100 several decades from now?
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2019, 03:37:52 PM »
I think climate projections should start going out to 2150. When climate modeling (and other modeling like Club of Rome) began 2100 was about 13 decades away...now it is only about 8. The grandchildren of today's children might live to see 2150. And AGW will continue at least this long.
Will we still be projecting to 2100 several decades from now?
Personally, I think we should move in the other direction.  Project out to 2050, as anything beyond that is much too uncertain to make a meaningfull guess.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2019, 04:20:55 PM »
I agree. We do a lot of guesswork here because we are forced to. The lag of data is depressing. The lag of data so far out is just overwhelming.

mitch

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2019, 05:07:23 PM »
The main uncertainty with the projections is the human response--how much fossil fuel will be burnt before we stop.

It is important to go out to 2150 to show that the warming will not stop. It is also important to do a 2050 snapshot since most of the warming has already been baked in.  No matter what the scenario, the change in temperature/climate will be about the same. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2019, 05:10:35 PM »
Well, two 'yes', two 'no'.
I also think we should have three dates: 2050,2100 and 2150.
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Stephan

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2019, 07:07:09 PM »
I'd like to support Tom's opinion. With three dates you get three different values of (e.g.) ice area, SLR, average temp. etc. This will illustrate even stronger that the change we all have to suffer from will be of long duration and getting worse from 2050 over 2100 until 2150.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

kassy

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2019, 10:46:22 PM »
Would it matter?

Current predictions for 2100 are bad enough and there is tons of science that discusses much longer time frames. We have a very short window to really start to do something and we know from current projections that this is worthwhile. Most of the world signed onto an agreement to do something but of course individual politicians happily kick the can down the road.

If i could choose i would rather have more certainty about certain tipping points but that is much harder to do and we frankly don´t have the time to wait for that.

At some point the reference point in the projections will shift but that is not useful if all 2150 projections turn out to show that we are completely fucked.

We already know enough to know we have to act but we are just not doing it.

My hunch is that arctic sea ice and other effects will show the need to act before 2050 but if we have not done enough by then whatever we model is moot anyway.
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Rich

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2019, 12:15:23 AM »
We should be letting people know how bad it's going to get by 2030.


Human Habitat Index

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2019, 01:25:10 AM »
We should be letting people know how bad it's going to get by 2030.

2020
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Rodius

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2019, 05:08:06 AM »
Here is a rather disturbing report that talks about 2050.
2150 wont matter much to us if this eventuates..... which is likely given we seem unwilling to change.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050

sark

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2019, 06:04:40 AM »
We should be letting people know how bad it's going to get by 2030.

Yes.  It's time not just for scientists but for the citizens to stand up.  It's cold comfort but we might as well go down fighting for what's right.  it's easier.

look how vulnerable we are to almost nothing.  the structure of climate is merely degrading and we have this much trouble.  we have a profound problem.  i don't get the sense people realize it.
I am not a scientist

Bernard

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Re: Projecting to 2150
« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2019, 09:16:50 PM »
Here is a rather disturbing report that talks about 2050.
2150 wont matter much to us if this eventuates..... which is likely given we seem unwilling to change.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050
In such a case, the dates to consider should rather be 2030, 2040 and 2050.
The rest is silence.