Is the 'clathrate gun' just one of the four horsemen?

[Burnrate]

Dramatic title I know  but things get scarier every year.  There are four big things which look like they might cause drastic changes in the next 30 years or so.

There is the aerosol loss which could raise temperatures by 2°C as rapidly as the aerosols decline.

There is the ocean acidification carbon threshold.

I have heard about the clathrate gun for a long time and how it is generally thought to be disproven BUT,  I know some of the claims against it are based on claims that .2°C per decade won't cause it (not that it is impossible, just that it's not expected).  Even if it is much less than expected it could still cause major amounts of trouble.

As an addendum to the clathrate gun permafrost is melting much faster than expected and releasing a lot of methane.

Also, now that the 2019 arctic melting season has been so intense a lot of people are saying next year is likely have us all witness the Blue Ocean Event next year.  I know there is a lot of writing about how that will cause rapid warming and other problems as well.

I would love more links about these things, especially more current than what I have.  Just one of these things could bring down the whole ecosystem as we know it and lead to collapse or extinction much faster.  A mild form of multiple would be just as bad.

[Pragma]

Shakova et al just released an update and gave more detail as well as debunked, or put into question, some of the debunking.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251/htm

This is a big thermodynamics question. Is there enough energy to melt subsea permafrost and destabilize clathrates, and over what time period?

Having seen what SSTs have done in the western arctic this year, and the fact that the ESAS is so shallow is very concerning, but I don't know enough and apparently neither do the lead investigators.

There was a government talking head "scientist" on TV that did the whole "nothing to see here, folks" thing, but she was a little too glib and dismissive for my liking. She never explained why Shakova was wrong. That in itself makes me wonder if there is more to it. Sorry, but no link. I'll try to find it.

I understand that there is a build-up of warm water deep in the arctic, and I know that as the SIA drops more and more, we are putting one heck of a lot of energy into the ocean that wasn't there before.

I think that the terrestrial permafrost is a bigger concern, but I could be wrong and that would mean very bad things.

[Neven]

Also, now that the 2019 arctic melting season has been so intense a lot of people are saying next year is likely have us all witness the Blue Ocean Event next year.

Not on this forum. I think a rebound is more likely, if past events are anything to go by.

But either way, yeah, WASF.

[Pragma]

But either way, yeah, WASF.

Many years ago, I worked with an old machinist that had a great saying:

"When you back into a chainsaw, does it really matter which tooth hits you first?"

[Burnrate]

This is a big thermodynamics question. Is there enough energy to melt subsea permafrost and destabilize clathrates, and over what time period?

What I always see when someone says it isn't possible is that it won't get hot enough fast enough.  Every year it is getting hotter and expected and faster than expected.

I do agree that the permafrost melting is a more immediate and apparent threat though.  I am more knowledgeable about space weather though so most of the important details that change hinges upon are things I miss.

There is a saying about the direction of a big ship is controlled by a (relatively) small rudder.  I wonder what detail will steer us wrong.

Not on this forum. I think a rebound is more likely, if past events are anything to go by.

That is comforting to hear.

But either way, yeah, WASF.

Comfort removed!

[TerryM]

Many years ago, I worked with an old machinist that had a great saying:

"When you back into a chainsaw, does it really matter which tooth hits you first?"

You're going to get a little behind in your work.
Terry

[Pragma]

Many years ago, I worked with an old machinist that had a great saying:

"When you back into a chainsaw, does it really matter which tooth hits you first?"

You're going to get a little behind in your work.
Terry

LOL! I knew it was only a matter of time, except I remember it as lens grinder.

 

[TerryM]

Many years ago, I worked with an old machinist that had a great saying:

"When you back into a chainsaw, does it really matter which tooth hits you first?"

You're going to get a little behind in your work.
Terry

LOL! I knew it was only a matter of time, except I remember it as lens grinder.

 

Mine was originally a butcher backing into his meat grinder.
Terry