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What will the NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
1 (1.2%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
1 (1.2%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
14 (17.3%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
27 (33.3%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
21 (25.9%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
9 (11.1%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
3 (3.7%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
1 (1.2%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (1.2%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
3 (3.7%)

Total Members Voted: 80

Voting closed: August 10, 2019, 04:19:25 PM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll  (Read 2452 times)

Juan C. García

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NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: July 31, 2019, 04:19:25 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2018 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71

From lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2019, 04:34:57 PM »
It is very hot over Greenland, but in a couple of days, there will be low pressure over several parts of the Arctic. They are not too low, they will just bring a little cold weather.
I think that the melting could slow down, so I will go 1 bin up, from my bet last month.

I will keep my last month bet in this one, just to stay under the NSIDC 2007 September average:
3.75-4.25M km2.

(I can change my bet before the poll ends)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2019, 05:26:42 PM »
I stay in the bin between 4.0 and 4.5 M km², reaching second or third place in the ranking list.

Klondike Kat

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2019, 03:01:50 PM »
I stay in the bin between 4.0 and 4.5 M km², reaching second or third place in the ranking list.

I was debating between this bin and the lower, as I think the average will be in the 4.0 - 4.25 range.  I went with the higher bin, in case the current melt rate returned to near average levels.  Hedging my bet a little.

Paddy

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2019, 07:39:07 AM »
Dropped half a bin to 3.75 to 4.25, will review after the piomas update

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2019, 05:50:16 PM »
This thread is really about guessing the shape of the minimum - early with sharp initial rise, or stretched out in the style of 2007 and 2012. I actually expect a relatively early minimum. Having said that, I will promptly ignore said knowledge and vote for 3.75-4.25, 2nd place, even though the real ASI 2nd place of 2016 got a high 4.53 in this metric.

sailor

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2019, 06:07:20 PM »
My first vote this year goes to 3.5 to 4.0 M
The ice pack is in very bad shape despite the partial recovery, that I think a weather event or two, not necessarily a GAC, will put it under 4.0 M
And there is time for the excess of Atlantic ice to melt partially or completely, like 40 days.
On the thin ice of modern life

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2019, 06:14:04 PM »
This thread is really about guessing the shape of the minimum - early with sharp initial rise, or stretched out in the style of 2007 and 2012.
Beat me to it, Oren.

Still thinking about impact of high SSTs and September weather.
And of course. Volume. Tealight has posted his July Amsr2 volume and thickness graphs just to make life more difficult.

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Sterks

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2019, 09:13:51 PM »
I keep my forecast which I don’t even remember and have to look at past threads.
But basically everything under 4 million. Probably I would drop it depending on the weather, but I don’t think it will end up higher, both NSIDC monthly and JAXA daily.

petm

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2019, 09:22:19 PM »
3.75 to 4.25 based mostly on Slater's model minus some for deterioration. If August is stormy, it could well be lower.

DavidR

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2019, 02:39:34 PM »
3.75 - 4.25. It's been a long hot three months above 80N,  significantly warmer than 2012 and 2016.  I expect this to play out with a long melt and a late minimum keeping the September average below 2007.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2019, 05:54:42 AM »
I will keep my last month bet in this one, just to stay under the NSIDC 2007 September average:
3.75-4.25M km2.
On this poll, I am going half of a bin up, to 4.00-4.50 M km2.


P.S. Only ~1.5 days left to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

BenB

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2019, 10:24:43 AM »
Up half a bin to 3.5-4 million. I think the coming warmth and thin ice will keep us close to record territory, but most likely a little bit behind 2012.

slow wing

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2019, 05:35:20 AM »
"Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2"

This is just half a million km^2 more than my estimate for the daily minimum.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2019, 06:03:02 AM »
10 hours to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2019, 06:34:18 PM »
For those who are wondering if NSIDC 2019 September average will break 2007 value: for the first time, 2019 on September 4th is below the 2007 September average. It is also below the 2016 daily value.

2016 froze very fast, so the NSIDC 2016 Sept avg is 4.53 km2. Can this happen again with 2019? We will have to wait and see.

(On the graph: 2007, 2016 and 2019 are highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

philopek

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Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2019, 07:22:33 PM »

2016 froze very fast, so the NSIDC 2016 Sept avg is 4.53 km2. Can this happen again with 2019?

Looking at 3 days forecast that will be past the 2016 minimum date of 7th September, it certainly could but most probably won't (early refreeze)

Temp anomalies tend to increase and there are several weather events that will most probably keep open water and "loose ice" in check.