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Author Topic: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?  (Read 7278 times)

Rich

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Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« on: August 02, 2019, 09:01:29 PM »
This question has no obvious answer. Like comparing Hitler and Stalin. They're both fraught with danger and have a connection to each other.

The potential consequences of sea ice loss are pretty well chronicled here at ASIF. It's already messing with the weather. Check out the work of Jennifer Francis for more on that.

I'm going to make the case that the land ice is going to land the harder blow first.

For whatever reason, the details of sea level rise data don't get nearly enough attention.

During the 20th century, SLR increased a little over 1mm / year as measured by manual tidal gauges.

From 1993 (when satellite measurements were introduced) through 2010, SLR increased by 3+ mm / yr.

Since 2011, we have seen a big jump up to 7-8mm / yr with the exception of the 2016 El Nino pause. During an El Nino, we get let's of atmospheric temperature records as a result of heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere. That transfer slows down the thermal expansion of SLR. We saw the same during the 1998 Super Nino.

That's a big jump in the baseline SLR and this year's Greenland melt is a good excuse to talk about it.

Once we get past the current modest El Nino, it's not going to be a shock to see the baseline jump up to ~ 10mm / yr. Not enough to drown millions of people overnight, but at the point where we are going to start seeing financial market disruption.

Ultimately, financial markets and asset valuations are based upon present value of expected future cash flows. Near-term cash flows are worth a lot more than those 50 or 100 years down the road  AGW hasn't been a big deal politically because it hasn't been a big deal financially.

That's changing as the pace of SLR accelerates and the science of understanding SLR accelerates as well. If you had a chance to visit the What's New in Antarctica thread this week, you'll see that the science community has made major advances in mapping and reporting Antarctic surface mass balance.

Soon, it's going to be clear that a lot of coastal real estate is long a perpetuity yielding cash flows indefinitely, but an annuity with a limited useful life.

The US Congress is kicking the can down the road with the Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) which has long exceeded it's original loss cap. Flood Insuranceand uninsured losses are going up. Mortgage availability will become tougher.

The dominoes continue with collapsing coastal real estate prices, Muni bond downgrades, increased Muni borrowing costs as mitigation costs increase. Coastal municipalities are going to go under and a big state like Florida may follow suit by 2040-2050.

King tides are based upon an 18.6 year orbital cycle that will peak next in 2034-2035. Expect the shit to hit the fan by then.

When the 401k's start crashing, the political will to fight AGW will be 100%.

I think it's quite realistic to expect 4-6" (100-150mm) of SLR by 2030. By then, the projections of what will follow should be pretty solid and enough to wipe out many trillions of asset value around the globe.

I see 10 more years of quasi-normal max before the next level down. Something like a major drought in India or food supply shock good accelerate the timeline.

I came to ASIF as part of an effort to investigate the critical path of societal wide downturn. My best guess is that the sea ice loss isn't the disrupter that land ice loss is.

Geoengineering might change that assumption.

petm

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2019, 09:51:10 PM »
In my opinion, the consequences of land ice melt will be far worse. Of course it depends on your definition of worse.

Land ice melt is worse not because of the truly terrible problem of sea level rise, even though that will result in hundreds of millions of climate refugees in the next century or even decades. The bigger problems are even more basic: food and drinking water. In most of the highly populated parts of the planet, H. sapiens has already pushed agriculture and drinking water to its limits. Limits that were probably not sustainable even given a stable climate. Limits that are now beginning to contract rapidly.

If you think migration is a problem now, imagine it in a few decades. How do you think people will behave when they suddenly don't have enough food or water to survive?

And by the way, if geoengineering is a silver bullet, it's not in the way that its advocates imagine. More like a silver bullet to the head. Think Icarus.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2019, 11:25:08 PM »
Actually, I forget in the OP to mention the loss of land based glaciers in places like the Himalayas that provide fresh water to hundreds of millions or more people down stream.

That's a problem that crests further down the road.

oren

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2019, 12:23:01 AM »
Arctic sea ice is the canary in the coal mine - the first to go. And when it does the climate will be even more destabilized than it is now. Land ice/SLR is the monster waiting in the shadow, much more damage in the long run.
But I think your timeline is too fast on land ice, too slow on sea ice. I see the first BOE by 2025-2030 at the latest, but I don't see a financial crisis because of SLR by then, though by rights the asset discounting and some preventive migration should already be happening now.

DrTskoul

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2019, 02:02:37 AM »
Land ice ( glaciers ) disappearance will cause bigger problems faster than sea ice. Tens to hundreds of millions of people depend on them for water.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2019, 02:35:31 AM »
. I see the first BOE by 2025-2030 at the latest, but I don't see a financial crisis because of SLR by then

I see that many on ASIF believe in a near-term BOE, but don't see solid science behind that

As far as the timing of a financial crisis, what is the tipping point in your opinion?

How much asset write down (in terms of %) can be absorbed before trigging a solvency crisis?

As a former Miami Beach resident and CPA who worked in finance / banking, I might suggest you take a look at the sunny day flooding already occuring in S. Florida at King tides. A big hurricane woukd obviously be problematic.

The beaches will go before a lot of the inland infrastructure and that will be very difficult on the economy.

New Orleans, Charleston and Norfolk are cities with similar problems. Internationally, you have a lot of vulnerable cities.

Do you have a source which you use for SLR estimates over the next 20-30 years?

It's not really a topic of discussion at ASIF. SLR has basically doubled this decade and it hardly rates a mention.

petm

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2019, 02:53:56 AM »
As long as the residents remain convinced that their feet are dry when they're actually wet and that climate change is a fake news socialist conspiracy, there won't be a rush to sell and the economic crisis will be postponed. Could take more decades before a lot of Floridians clue in.

I'm only half joking.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2019, 05:37:58 AM »
What - me worry?
dateline: Tallahassee, Florida
 ;D

(beats the alternative)

You, see, we don't have either Land or Sea Ice to bother about!
(and we have lots of sand in which to stick our heads)
[/sarc]
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

oren

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2019, 10:10:24 AM »
IMHO, the tipping point should be a devastating storm, in the style of Katrina and Sandy, where the main mode of damage is seawater flooding the land. But since these storms have already happened, there needs to be a close series of such storms for this to affect financial decisions of many individual homeowners, selling at a current perceived loss to avoid bigger future loss.
Other "requirements" - the location hit cannot be made whole after the storm. The city/state/federal government does not bail out homeowners who lost their home.
If all above points are met, average affluent Joe will panic. But I don't think SLR is fast enough to cause this in a decade. Of course pure bad luck could cause this scenario even now, but the government is still rich enough and unrealistic enough to bail out everyone and rebuild. The last thing the government wants is financial panic of the unstoppable kind. Thus, this will be delayed to the point where they are simply unable to do anything, or are willing to throw the coastal dwellers under the bus knowing they will get away with it politically.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2019, 10:56:15 AM »
Oren, I think your opinion is not highly informed.

The federal gov't is not bailing everyone out. Most of the residential losses in Hurricane Florence were not insured.

FEMA is redrawing flood zone boundaries which are requiring more people to have flood insurance and rates are increasing.

Bond rating agencies such as Moody's are openly discussing the possibility of downgrading coastal municipal debt.

Storms might accelerate flood losses, but are not necessary to bring asset valuations down. Risky areas are already seeing diminished appreciation vs those on higher ground.

Coastal real estate is the canary in the coal mine of civilization transforming climate change, not Arctic sea ice.

I'm attaching a report from the Union of Concerned Scientists for you to peruse.

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/global-warming-impacts/sea-level-rise-chronic-floods-and-us-coastal-real-estate-implications


oren

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2019, 11:52:38 AM »
Quote
Oren, I think your opinion is not highly informed.
Thanks. I did know all that, having read every post on this forum for the last 5 years (except the politics section). And yet my opinion is different, for which I duly apologize.
Love your interpersonal style though.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2019, 01:30:05 PM »
Quote
Oren, I think your opinion is not highly informed.
Thanks. I did know all that, having read every post on this forum for the last 5 years (except the politics section). And yet my opinion is different, for which I duly apologize.
Love your interpersonal style though.
I think it was Sidd who posted that in the USA the legal system for protecting property against flooding from rivers specifically required that resources were deployed according to the value of the property liable to be affected.

i.e. affluent Joe will the last to feel the pain while poorer people watch their property float downstream.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2019, 01:37:54 PM »
Maybe reading every post on a sea ice centric forum for 5 years isn't the best way to maintain a well rounded view of the world?

It's easy to see that one could develop a world view that orbits around sea ice if one spends so much time immersed in it.

Your answers regarding the potential for land ice to lead to financial collapse are lacking in depth and simplistic.

Affluent Joe panicking? Government bailing everyone out? These comments don't come from an informed reading of the situation.

Like I said in the OP, the rate of SLR has effectively doubled in the last decade and there is scarcely any conversation of it on ASIF. This hasn't been the place to become educated about it. I'm trying to augment that.

bluice

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2019, 01:54:07 PM »
People on Arctic Sea Ice Forum tend to discuss arctic sea ice. Doesn’t matter if it’s not the most important thing in the world, it is nevertheless the topic here.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2019, 02:01:48 PM »
Quote
Oren, I think your opinion is not highly informed.
Thanks. I did know all that, having read every post on this forum for the last 5 years (except the politics section). And yet my opinion is different, for which I duly apologize.
Love your interpersonal style though.
I think it was Sidd who posted that in the USA the legal system for protecting property against flooding from rivers specifically required that resources were deployed according to the value of the property liable to be affected.

i.e. affluent Joe will the last to feel the pain while poorer people watch their property float downstream.

LOL. You think Miami Beach isn't full of affluence? You think poor people own the beachfront property in America? Hah.

South Florida geologic rock is porous limestone. The ocean is already coming through it and flooding the streets at high tide. Miami Beach alone has already earmarked half a billion to pump the ocean ocean back into the Bay, meanwhile the beaches erode and must be constantly replenished with imported sand.

The ocean is intruding on the aquifers which supply the region with fresh water. The red tide (amplified by AGW and accommodation of the sugar industry) is getting worse.

Meanwhile SLR in the region is faster than the global average. All of that fresh water coming off Greenland slows down the AMOC and allows water to pile up on the SE US coast.

If you want to make a credible argument against coastal inundation, please bring data and not quips.


Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2019, 02:16:58 PM »
Oren, I think your opinion is not highly informed.

The federal gov't is not bailing everyone out. Most of the residential losses in Hurricane Florence were not insured.

FEMA is redrawing flood zone boundaries which are requiring more people to have flood insurance and rates are increasing.

Bond rating agencies such as Moody's are openly discussing the possibility of downgrading coastal municipal debt.

Storms might accelerate flood losses, but are not necessary to bring asset valuations down. Risky areas are already seeing diminished appreciation vs those on higher ground.

Coastal real estate is the canary in the coal mine of civilization transforming climate change, not Arctic sea ice.

I'm attaching a report from the Union of Concerned Scientists for you to peruse.

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/global-warming-impacts/sea-level-rise-chronic-floods-and-us-coastal-real-estate-implications

I found this article which stated that some coastal homes had decreased in value, but still are more expensive that interior ones.  The high premium for ocean front may have diminished somewhat in recent years, but it is still a long way from collapse.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.wbur.org/bostonomix/2019/05/14/climate-change-real-estate-value-salisbury

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2019, 02:19:23 PM »
People on Arctic Sea Ice Forum tend to discuss arctic sea ice. Doesn’t matter if it’s not the most important thing in the world, it is nevertheless the topic here.

IMO, it's perfectly fine to focus on whatever you want.

It's another thing entirely to promote the vision that it's more important than it is. ASIF is not w/o influence.

BOE by 2030? The 2012 record could still be standing in 2030. It has stood for 7 years, why not 17?

Sea level sets a new record almost continuously.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2019, 02:21:00 PM »
LOL
1. You think Miami Beach isn't full of affluence?
2. You think poor people own the beachfront property in America? Hah.
1. er..No   2....errrm..No

Quote
3. South Florida geologic rock is porous limestone. The ocean is already coming through it and flooding the streets at high tide. Miami Beach alone has already earmarked half a billion to pump the ocean ocean back into the Bay, meanwhile the beaches erode and must be constantly replenished with imported sand. (etc etc etc)
3. Yes. Not new news.

Quote
If you want to make a credible argument against coastal inundation,
Pardon? It is news to me that I am making a credible argument against coastal inundation.

Wilful misinterpretation ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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dnem

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2019, 02:36:42 PM »
Writing from an (expensive!) just-off-the beach summer rental on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, I can attest that near ocean real estate values are holding up quite well so far.  But, markets are notoriously unstable and prone to dramatic, non-linear dynamics.  I think the zeitgeist on owning near-ocean property could switch very rapidly, causing instability in other, broader, financial markets.

kassy

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2019, 02:57:57 PM »
The big threat is humanities collective actions or lack thereof.
These damage sea ice and land ice.

Arctic ice is rather important for global weather via the wavy jet stream and all stuck weather we get. Long droughts or floodings and unseasonal outbreaks really hurt agriculture and influence us more directly then a couple of mm of sea level.

If people in general are not interested in Arctic ice they will usually not be interested in a couple of mms of sea level rise.

And there is plenty about sea level rise here (read ASLRs posts).

Of course Arctic ice comes first on an Arctic ice forum and discussion of sea level rise is less prominent but is here.

Personally i think we might see drought leading to big problems and deaths in cities and hopefully that will act as a wake up call before any BOE type event. Not sure if it will and even if it does wake us (humanity) up we still have the same mission: bring down CO2 to a level where we can safe the Arctic ice and stop bits falling of Antarctica at an ever faster rate and safe many of the glaciers.

We have to plant billions of trees while what we have in the high north is burning every year now.
And in the middle latitudes many are dying of drought already.

We (humanity) are the threat and both sea and land ice react to our actions or lack thereof.

Also we do not have the luxury to wait for either a BOE or sea level rise to become a certain thing so basically the discussion does not matter.

PS: If the discussion would have been purely academic i would still say Arctic sea ice loss doing more damage on a shorter time scale due to long range weather effects.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2019, 03:12:08 PM »
Writing from an (expensive!) just-off-the beach summer rental on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, I can attest that near ocean real estate values are holding up quite well so far.  But, markets are notoriously unstable and prone to dramatic, non-linear dynamics.  I think the zeitgeist on owning near-ocean property could switch very rapidly, causing instability in other, broader, financial markets.

Zeitgeist is a reference to spirit or mood.

The only moodiness involved in real estate valuation will be Moody's, the rating agency.

The coming real estate valuation crunch is going to be cold and logical financial market function. All about the time value of money. Timing and risk associated with expected cash flows.

Sea levels globally have risen 2" this decade and are going up at 3" per decade right now. Faster in Miami Beach due to MOC slowdown and reduced gravitational force at the poles.

Very easy to see additional 4"-6" rise in Miami Beach by 2030. What do you think happens to their bond rating in that scenario?

People will still be able to live there in 2030. But they might not have beaches or affordable flood insurance or 80%, 30 year mortgages backed by Fannie and Freddie.

Ocean front RENTALS will be expensive. People are going to want to have that experience before it disappears.

As mentioned earlier, the king tide cycle peaks again in 2034-35. That's the end of visibility for normalcy and when lots of heavily populated areas transition from perpetuity to annuity.


Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2019, 03:18:34 PM »
Kassy,
I agree with your last post except for droughts.  Rising temperatures will lead to more precipitation and a wavy jet stream will lead to a more random distribution of rainfall.  Droughts occur when a weather pattern persists longer than usual.  We may see more flooding events, like this year, but I seriously doubt that drought will expand.  20th century data shows the opposite effect with rising temperatures as does paleontology.  Not to say that there may not be local occurrences, just not widespread.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2019, 03:29:00 PM »
]
Pardon? It is news to me that I am making a credible argument against coastal inundation.

Wilful misinterpretation ?

I am making a point about coastal real estate losses due to sea level rise and you countered that Affluent Joe would be last to feel it as a result of poorer people being more susceptible to river flooding.

This isn't a hypothesis about river flooding (a side effect). It's about coastal inundation. Affluent Joe and Joan own the coastal real estate that will be inundated. The US is an affluent country. We are the Affluent Joe of the world.


Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2019, 03:34:55 PM »
Klondike the Denier. Recognizing the argument that he can't win, moves in to try and change the subject.

Watch his technique folks.

kassy

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2019, 03:37:27 PM »
Kassy,
I agree with your last post except for droughts.  Rising temperatures will lead to more precipitation and a wavy jet stream will lead to a more random distribution of rainfall.  Droughts occur when a weather pattern persists longer than usual.  We may see more flooding events, like this year, but I seriously doubt that drought will expand.  20th century data shows the opposite effect with rising temperatures as does paleontology.  Not to say that there may not be local occurrences, just not widespread.

Well southern India and parts of east and south Africa don´t look that good. Many reservoirs really need a refill. Those places are more influenced by the ocean there then the northern jet stream.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #25 on: August 03, 2019, 03:52:30 PM »
Kassy,
I agree with your last post except for droughts.  Rising temperatures will lead to more precipitation and a wavy jet stream will lead to a more random distribution of rainfall.  Droughts occur when a weather pattern persists longer than usual.  We may see more flooding events, like this year, but I seriously doubt that drought will expand.  20th century data shows the opposite effect with rising temperatures as does paleontology.  Not to say that there may not be local occurrences, just not widespread.

Well southern India and parts of east and south Africa don´t look that good. Many reservoirs really need a refill. Those places are more influenced by the ocean there then the northern jet stream.

Yes, the Indian Ocean is the major player in weather there.  Their problem has been exasperated by expanded water usage.  This is a worldwide problem that is starting to rear its ugly head.  As I stated, there will be local consequences.

bligh8

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2019, 04:01:01 PM »
Sea levels globally have risen 2" this decade and are going up at 3" per decade right now. Faster in Miami Beach due to MOC slowdown and reduced gravitational force at the poles.
Very easy to see additional 4"-6" rise in Miami Beach by 2030. What do you think happens to their bond rating in that scenario?

Rich..SLR is what it is in Miami because it is natural to do so.  We have the North Equatorial current being fed to a point by the Canary current and the entire North Atlantic trade winds blowing water up against the coast right into that area.  The affects of the AMOC slowdown are minimal at this point along with gravity considerations.

But we were discussing real-estate in NC, House Bill 819 provided a provision for additional time to study and refine sea level predictions. On March 31, 2015 the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission Science Panel issued an update to the original 2010 Report. In the 2010 report, the commission stated that over the next 100 years sea levels will rise about 39 inches. The 2015 report concludes that sea level rise will range from 2 to 12 inches along the coast of North Carolina over the next 30 years.  Real estate transactions happen or not based on local laws, in NJ a real-estate agent must disclose flooding risk from SLR to a buyer, not so much in NC.

bligh

Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2019, 04:15:16 PM »
Sea levels globally have risen 2" this decade and are going up at 3" per decade right now. Faster in Miami Beach due to MOC slowdown and reduced gravitational force at the poles.
Very easy to see additional 4"-6" rise in Miami Beach by 2030. What do you think happens to their bond rating in that scenario?

Rich..SLR is what it is in Miami because it is natural to do so.  We have the North Equatorial current being fed to a point by the Canary current and the entire North Atlantic trade winds blowing water up against the coast right into that area.  The affects of the AMOC slowdown are minimal at this point along with gravity considerations.

But we were discussing real-estate in NC, House Bill 819 provided a provision for additional time to study and refine sea level predictions. On March 31, 2015 the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission Science Panel issued an update to the original 2010 Report. In the 2010 report, the commission stated that over the next 100 years sea levels will rise about 39 inches. The 2015 report concludes that sea level rise will range from 2 to 12 inches along the coast of North Carolina over the next 30 years.  Real estate transactions happen or not based on local laws, in NJ a real-estate agent must disclose flooding risk from SLR to a buyer, not so much in NC.

bligh

The issue is much bigger in NJ because they are more exposed.  NC has the barrier islands which protect the coastal areas.  Still, 2 to 12 inches is a rather wide range.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2019, 04:18:36 PM »


  The affects of the AMOC slowdown are minimal at this point

Here's a source that disagrees with you. If you have a source that contradicts this, please share. Otherwise, I'll assume you're just winging it.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/flooding-hot-spots-why-seas-are-rising-faster-on-the-u.s.-east-coast

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2019, 04:32:21 PM »

  The affects of the AMOC slowdown are minimal at this point along with gravity considerations.


And here's a link to a NASA video demonstrating the gravitational effects on SLR as a result of Greenland's shrinking ice mass.

They impact is definitely not minimal. Your argument is bunk.

https://sealevel.nasa.gov/resources/78/monthly-changes-in-gravity-affect-sea-level

bligh8

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2019, 04:49:36 PM »
Rich  Their have been many papers published about the AMOC slowdown and the proposed gravity shifts.  My suggestion that Miami and that portion of the planet is experiencing a more rapid
slr because it is natural to do so is correct.  I did mention that I live along the east coast, yes?
Miami Dade county according to tide guages is at .75 to one inch per year.   from within your paper" In both cases, Ezer says, the storms slowed the Gulf Stream. That’s because strong winds near the surface weaken the Gulf Stream flow, contributing to high sea levels farther north in places like Norfolk."  "The storm's slowed the gulf stream"  ok...a higher than normal tide would result and it would be temporary.  Gravity shifts at this point are minimal. I checked Aviso, SLR, North Atlantic,
Jason 2....looks like more of the same.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #31 on: August 03, 2019, 04:57:40 PM »

  Still, 2 to 12 inches is a rather wide range.

The bottom end of the range is a joke. We've had 2"  in the last 8 years, it's not credible looking forward 25.

The conversation that climate deniers don't want to have is about actual SLR this decade.

Given the 4 month lag in NASA's reporting of SLR and this Summer's Greenland melt, we're going to have some juicy SLR numbers coming up.

If we can get the world to focus on that instead of some wishful thinking about BOE, maybe the politicians will be forced to act.



petm

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #32 on: August 03, 2019, 05:03:47 PM »
What - me worry?
dateline: Tallahassee, Florida
 ;D

(beats the alternative)

You, see, we don't have either Land or Sea Ice to bother about!
(and we have lots of sand in which to stick our heads)
[/sarc]

 :o ;D

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #33 on: August 03, 2019, 05:12:56 PM »
Rich  Their have been many papers published about the AMOC slowdown and the proposed gravity shifts.  My suggestion that Miami and that portion of the planet is experiencing a more rapid
slr because it is natural to do so is correct.  I did mention that I live along the east coast, yes?
Miami Dade county according to tide guages is at .75 to one inch per year.   from within your paper" In both cases, Ezer says, the storms slowed the Gulf Stream. That’s because strong winds near the surface weaken the Gulf Stream flow, contributing to high sea levels farther north in places like Norfolk."  "The storm's slowed the gulf stream"  ok...a higher than normal tide would result and it would be temporary.  Gravity shifts at this point are minimal. I checked Aviso, SLR, North Atlantic,
Jason 2....looks like more of the same.

The fundamental slowing of the AMOC is not due to storm winds. Fresh water melt from Greenland is altering the density gradient in the N. Atlantic where the Gulf Stream terminates and sinks.


P-maker

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #34 on: August 03, 2019, 05:47:10 PM »
Rich, it's time to go to bed.

Quote
Coastal real estate is the canary in the coal mine of civilization transforming climate change, not Arctic sea ice.

Arctic sea ice remains the number one canary in the coal mine. Even if you are hired by a resinsurance company in the US to prope the risk affecting real estate in the SE, you should immediately realize that the loss of ASI will lead to at least a dozen calamities, of which local sea level rise on the Miami coast is a minor problem.

You started this thread, you whirled up a lot of dust, but you did not really move the world through your actions.

Please observe that Neven's blog is about moving the world in the right direction through small, daily effective steps. It is not about saving your corporate ass temporarily.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #35 on: August 03, 2019, 06:16:31 PM »
Rich, it's time to go to bed.

Quote
Coastal real estate is the canary in the coal mine of civilization transforming climate change, not Arctic sea ice.

Arctic sea ice remains the number one canary in the coal mine. Even if you are hired by a resinsurance company in the US to prope the risk affecting real estate in the SE, you should immediately realize that the loss of ASI will lead to at least a dozen calamities, of which local sea level rise on the Miami coast is a minor problem.

You started this thread, you whirled up a lot of dust, but you did not really move the world through your actions.

Please observe that Neven's blog is about moving the world in the right direction through small, daily effective steps. It is not about saving your corporate ass temporarily.

LOL, almost all garbage.

I bring a strong well supported case for land ice driven financial collapse and you can't even bring a compelling scientific argument that that 2012 sea ice minimum will be broken in the next few years.

Never is doing good work here, but it's been kinda hijacked by a cult which is disseminating the message that sea ice collapse is imminent. Please note that Neven's vote in the sea ice poll is for a post 2030 BOE.

You should pay attention to the points in the melting season thread and the correlation between sea ice minima, depth and proximity to land.

You can't extrapolate the loss of shallow coastal Arctic ice to the deep CAB. That deep CAB ice could be with us for many decades in the absence of freak weather.
Sea ice loss may have hit a plateau.

philopek

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #36 on: August 03, 2019, 06:37:12 PM »
ant to make a credible argument against coastal inundation, please bring data and not quips.

At least you make to top it each time one thinks it can't get any worse.

The point was that we need a fast succession of events, quasi several times per year and not local but more widely spread (and it will happen) and then you come up with such petty bickering about to show how educated you are.

Next time perhaps he's gonna use an example from Bangladesh, the Maldives or Vanuatu to be sure you have nothing special U.S. to contribute. [scorn]

Read this again:
Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why People Think They're Smart Even When ...
https://deanyeong.com/dunning-kruger-effect/

be cause

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #37 on: August 03, 2019, 07:05:43 PM »
  'The good shepherd herding cats' ...

 .. meanwhile this side of the 'pond'  since all those heat records being broken , climate change is holding the headlines alongside the insanity of the boris brexit . Floods and Greenland melt and Siberian fires have all been linked as the world basks at an all time high .
  I wish Greta a safe visit . I hope she's found a good native family to keep her safe from all those immigrants and their 'real' estate values . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #38 on: August 03, 2019, 07:06:55 PM »
ant to make a credible argument against coastal inundation, please bring data and not quips.

At least you make to top it each time one thinks it can't get any worse.

The point was that we need a fast succession of events, quasi several times per year and not local but more widely spread (and it will happen) and then you come up with such petty bickering about to show how educated you are.

Next time perhaps he's gonna use an example from Bangladesh, the Maldives or Vanuatu to be sure you have nothing special U.S. to contribute. [scorn]

Read this again:
Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why People Think They're Smart Even When ...
https://deanyeong.com/dunning-kruger-effect/

Gotta love it when someone comes with an incoherent and grammatically tortured essay on someone else's lack of intelligence.

Challenge the rate if SLR? Nope.
Challenge the projection of SLR? Nope
Challenge the understanding of financial markets? Nope.
Present evidence in support of imminent BOE? Nope.
Present evidence of consequences of hypothetical BOE being greater than coastal inundation? Nope.

Illogical attack on the messenger? Sure.

I get it. This is like the church of sea ice. I expect to be ex-communicated for questioning it's supremacy as the center of the universe. Copernicus caught a lot of grief posthumously for shit like that.

oren

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #39 on: August 03, 2019, 07:21:26 PM »
Rich, I am officially tired of you. Your arrogance knows no bounds. Nobody knows anything substantial, you have a monopoly of knowledge of the future, all discussion is futile. The forum is a cult, and whatever other people post is uninformed garbage. I have made the mistake of engaging with you too many times when you bring up new subjects, innocently thinking a true discussion is to be had. So I will now stop. As Depeche Mode once said: Enjoy the silence.

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2019, 07:22:19 PM »
Nice to know that Europe is embracing AGW reality and leading the fight against, bc.

Here in America, the battle is more uphill as the world's leading oil producer.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #41 on: August 03, 2019, 07:30:48 PM »
Rich, I am officially tired of you. Your arrogance knows no bounds. Nobody knows anything substantial, you have a monopoly of knowledge of the future, all discussion is futile. The forum is a cult, and whatever other people post is uninformed garbage. I have made the mistake of engaging with you too many times when you bring up new subjects, innocently thinking a true discussion is to be had. So I will now stop. As Depeche Mode once said: Enjoy the silence.

Probably the wise move.  He is one of those know-it-alls who can do nothing but try to discredit anyone with whom he disagrees.  Unfortunately, he is not alone.  I simply ignore him, preferring to concentrate my efforts on those who appear to be more objectively driven.

petm

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2019, 07:34:15 PM »
I don't think oil revenue is exactly the problem. Canada produces a lot of oil too, in fact a lot more (almost 3x) than the US on a per-capita basis. Yet Canadians aren't nearly as ignorant about the threat of climate change as Americans (not to mention a host of other topics).

The US system, including government, education and the media, is largely captive to big money including big oil. Other countries, Canada included, would never accept the kind of corrupt election financing system that has gotten the US into its mess.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-poll-climate-change-1.5178514

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #43 on: August 03, 2019, 08:00:23 PM »
hullo Neven,

I know its Saturday evening and your wife is probably saying "get off that damn computer",
but I think this thread needs excluding from the Recent Posts section.

Sort of inevitable, really.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

TerryM

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #44 on: August 03, 2019, 08:08:03 PM »
Quote
Oren, I think your opinion is not highly informed.
Thanks. I did know all that, having read every post on this forum for the last 5 years (except the politics section). And yet my opinion is different, for which I duly apologize.
Love your interpersonal style though.
Ramen!
Very nicely put oren, and as philopek notes the DK Effect is strong within this thread.


When a desert denizen lectures coastal dwellers regarding the future state of sea shore flood insurance - it's time to close the folder and move on to more productive threads. :(


Terry

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #45 on: August 03, 2019, 08:10:04 PM »
Rich, I am officially tired of you. Your arrogance knows no bounds. Nobody knows anything substantial, you have a monopoly of knowledge of the future, all discussion is futile. The forum is a cult, and whatever other people post is uninformed garbage. I have made the mistake of engaging with you too many times when you bring up new subjects, innocently thinking a true discussion is to be had. So I will now stop. As Depeche Mode once said: Enjoy the silence.

Another one succumbs to the kryptonite. I'm making no representations of omniscience, just someone trying to understand the inflection points in human civilization.

I came to ASIF seeking an answer to that question and the BOE story isn't holding up as relevant in the fight against AGW.

CO2 and CO2e are accelerating.
Global temps are hitting records and accelerating.
SLR is hitting records and accelerating (and on a collusion course w/ huge population centers)

Sea ice is a bad deal. But the Arctic is 7 years removed from a record and there's no evidence that it will set a new record or undermine human civilization anytime soon.

Sea ice is an important story. But it's a side story.  If you spend your time immersed in a side story, that's cultish

Sea level rise had doubled this decade and that fact has gotten almost no play here at ASIF. I'm here with my megaphone to make that point.

In order to stop AGW, we need global mobilization NOW. In order to motivate people to demand that mobilization, we need to make the most credible case possible that disaster is coming.

The most credible case is supported by hard data like accelerating SLR.

What I am doing is completely logical in the context of trying to make a case for fighting AGW. Call it arrogant if you want, but I'm not going to back off because of name calling.


dnem

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #46 on: August 04, 2019, 07:38:26 PM »
Writing from an (expensive!) just-off-the beach summer rental on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, I can attest that near ocean real estate values are holding up quite well so far.  But, markets are notoriously unstable and prone to dramatic, non-linear dynamics.  I think the zeitgeist on owning near-ocean property could switch very rapidly, causing instability in other, broader, financial markets.

Zeitgeist is a reference to spirit or mood.

The only moodiness involved in real estate valuation will be Moody's, the rating agency.

The coming real estate valuation crunch is going to be cold and logical financial market function.

Seriously Rich?  Was the Dutch Tulip Mania "cold and logical"?  The biggest problem with classical economics is that humans don't behave rationally.  Market panics are defined by mob behavior.  Faith in fiat currency is a social construct for crying out loud.  The nut can turn at any time.

blumenkraft

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #47 on: August 04, 2019, 08:10:15 PM »
Fun fact: The 'Tulip Mania' is a myth.

Link >> https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-real-story-of-the-dutch-tulip-bubble-is-even-more-fascinating-than-the-myth-youve-heard-51557666037

And btw, so are many economic narratives. Homo Economicus, a myth. Trickle-down, a very very stupid myth.

gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #48 on: August 04, 2019, 08:30:16 PM »
Fun fact: The 'Tulip Mania' is a myth.

Link >> https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-real-story-of-the-dutch-tulip-bubble-is-even-more-fascinating-than-the-myth-youve-heard-51557666037

And btw, so are many economic narratives. Homo Economicus, a myth. Trickle-down, a very very stupid myth.
True enough.

But "irrational exuberance" did come to pass. The aftermath persists.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rich

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Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« Reply #49 on: August 04, 2019, 09:08:34 PM »
C'mon. There is never going to be a craze for real estate scheduled to go under water.