Below, a summary of weekly blog posts from Byron Blomquist, CIRES and NOAA. The event this morning appears catastrophic even relative to earlier havoc at the Mosaic floe. An update can be expected Monday. Dec 9th.
The scientists' persistence to stay operational under difficult weather and ice conditions is only to be applauded but as with a poker hand, there is a time to hold 'em and a time to fold 'em.
The event this morning may prove a tipping point. The original plan, conceived eight years ago, is no longer viable in the ice of today. It is time for Plan B.
GFS foresees a lull for the next five day: slow drift north but in the direction of Ellesmere Island, not the Fram Strait.
https://mosaic.colorado.edu/news/weekly-update-byron-7“December 2. The Dranitzyn left the coast of Norway yesterday to begin the transit to our location and should arrive within a week to 10 days. AWI estimates it will then take about
5 days to transfer ~50 tons of cargo between the two vessels and pump over the fuel, weather conditions permitting. We were not able to accomplish everything we planned for leg 1 having to overcome a series of setbacks related to ice dynamics.
The route to Met City was reestablished over the past week and the main power lines reconnected, so most of the instrumentation there is back on line. The ship's machinists repaired damage to the collapsed 30m met mast and we hope to reinstall it as a 23m mast sometime next week.
Air sampling from the bow is often good for several days running, then unsuitable for several days as the wind direction shifts to the stern of the ship.
The anemometers, CO2/CH4 flux system, fast ozone, slow ozone, NOx, GCMS, and mercury instruments have all been running well. The DMS mass spectrometer ran for a few weeks, but a power supply failure will keep this system
off line until leg 4.
Nov 25, 2019. The passage of two arctic cyclones last weekend was a unique opportunity to make atmospheric observations of a poorly understood weather system. There were no major shifts in the ice pack over the last several days but the situation remains dynamic, with leads opening and closing on a daily basis.
The remote sensing site has been
dismantled and will be rebuilt at a new site. The ROV site is partially operating on generator power. The Ocean City site was
dismantled and moved to avoid an ice ridge, but is mostly operational again.
The situation at Met City is tenuous. Met City is still without a power line but instruments on the tower are operating part of each day on generator power and we've been able to access the site twice daily to refuel. It is sometimes possible to reach Met City by snow machine, but often access is by foot only.
The exact route changes daily, depending on ice conditions. Met City is currently only about 400m from the ship, but the route over ice is probably closer to 1 km. Our measurements there are
still shutdown and we don't have a good estimate yet for when the power and data lines will be reestablished.
After the large shift in the ice floe on 19 Nov, the Met City, ROV and remote sensing sites moved about 600m to the SE, across the bow of the ship. Met City is now located directly in front of the bow and the remote sensing site will be reestablished in this same general area. Ice in front of the ship is now a complex system of blocks and ridges. The ROV site is now off the port quarter of the bow.
The formerly compact Central Observatory site now spreads over a much greater area and the bow of the ship is largely surrounded by on-ice infrastructure. If the ice solidifies in this state, this will be the arrangement for the remainder of the project. This will impact the clean wind sector for measurements from the bow of the ship, but there should still be many hours per day with minimal activity on the ice.
November 15-17. A powerful winter storm blew through the scientific cities set up on the ice around the ship. Intense winds tore new cracks in the ice floe next to the ship, sending some ice-based instruments adrift. It’s possible that the floe will drift back together and freeze again. I think about the word “mosaic” and how it implies a breaking in order to be put back together.
Eventually the drift slowed down. The instruments moved in a U-shape around the bow of the ship. ROV Oasis is now off to the left. Remote Sensing not far by. Met City is directly in front of the bow. Ocean City and Balloon Town stayed in relatively the same position, but a long lead opened directly
next to their tents.
The Atmosphere Team’s flux stations, part of the distributed network, are doing great, overall, although we had one disruption that involved a polar bear. We have snapped cables and a dismembered exhaust system to repair. We are working to rig new connectors and cables, and have ordered a new exhaust pipe that will hopefully arrive with the next leg of participants in December.
Due to a major storm in the last few days, we have also had lots of cracks around the ice, and one has opened up so wide that in order to get to our instruments, one has to
use a kayak to cross to the other side.
The 30 meter tower has tipped over. An assessment of the instruments and damage done to the tower are still on-going. Our other 11 meter tower is still standing tall, but another smaller crack has opened beneath one of the guy-wires that holds up the tower.
Nov 19, 2019. The last several days have seen some dramatic developments and some setbacks. On Saturday a strong arctic cyclone moved through the area, bringing sustained winds up to 20 m/s for many hours, first in an westerly direction, then veering to northerly. Our drift rate increased to > 0.5 kts to the E and then to the S, at one point up to 0.8 kts. We are now well S of our position a week ago and are once again on a track toward Siberia.
The large multiyear floe which was selected as the backbone of our Central Observatory split in two on Sunday, with a
significant shear zone developing just in front of the ship in a port-starboard direction.
This lead has opened and closed a few times over the past 48 hours and the shear between the two halves is currently offset by as much as 70-100 m. The block with Met City, ROV City and the Remote Sensing Site are on the opposite side of the crack and a large ice ridge is developing between Remote Sensing and Ocean City.
The Remote Sensing site was
heavily damaged by ice movement and a number of large instruments were moved to safety on Sunday. The site will need to be reestablished at another location when the situation stabilizes.
The power and data links to Met City and all other sites on the opposite side of the lead were severed early AM on Sunday. Further ice movement brought down the 30m met tower at Met City early this morning. Otherwise, most of the equipment installed at Met City is intact and appears to be on stable ice, but only a
few instruments are operating, powered by intermittent backup generator supply.
Our CO2/CH4 flux system at Met City is
down and will not operate until ship power is restored to the site. Met City was originally located about 800m off the starboard beam of the ship at a 2 o'clock bearing, but as of today is drifting toward the 1 o'clock position. Because the ice is still moving we do not know when power and normal operations will be restored.”