2020 ENSO

[gerontocrat]

A new year, a new thread, and the first monthly update from the US Climate Prediction Center

They used to talk about "the Spring Barrier" which reduces confidence in predictions. But not this time. Nevertheless, ENSO Neutral considered the most likely.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 January 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance).

During December 2019, near-to-above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident over the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Most SST indices increased in the past week, with the eastern Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 regions remaining near average (+0.1°C to +0.3°C), while the Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were warmer at +1.2°C and +0.7°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The recent increase in SST anomalies was partially driven by a combination of low-level westerly wind anomalies and the growth in positive equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W; [Fig. 3]). The latter indicates a downwelling Kelvin wave, which was evident in the above-average temperatures in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Over the month, westerly wind anomalies persisted over small regions of the western and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level winds were near average over most of the equator. Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and east of the Date Line, and was enhanced to the west of the Date Line [Fig. 5]. The overall oceanic and atmospheric system was consistent with ENSO-neutral, though recent observations reflected a trend toward warmer conditions that will be monitored.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to mostly favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer. For the December 2019-February 2020 season, the Niño-3.4 index is predicted to be near +0.5°C, which is consistent with the latest observations. The forecasters also favor above-average ocean temperatures to continue in the next month or two, but, in alignment with most model guidance, do not foresee a continuation over several consecutive seasons or shifts in the atmospheric circulation that would indicate El Niño. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 February 2020.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Rodius]

It looks like the El Nino wants to start, but is struggling to get over the line properly.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Outlooks

It seems probable we will avoid El Nino this year, which is good news.

[Freegrass]

The current in the Pacific is moving lots of warm water to the east. Is this a sign that an El-Nino is forming?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=198.72,-0.63,990/loc=40.752,-22.948

[Freegrass]

Am I seeing this right? Is an El-Nino forming?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/01/29/1200Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-125.01,0.00,1152

[Tom_Mazanec]

It seems probable we will avoid El Nino this year, which is good news.

Don't El Ninos form towards the end of the year? How reliable is this indication this early in the year?

[Rodius]

It seems probable we will avoid El Nino this year, which is good news.

Don't El Ninos form towards the end of the year? How reliable is this indication this early in the year?

They are fairly accurate, but not so much as to give a high degree of certainty.
At the moment the outlook for this year is still neutral.
El Nino can happen at any time, but some seasons are more likely than others..... the reliability can vary widely depending on the time of year. At the moment it is fairly reliable.

At the moment, it looks like it will be a neutral year.

This link is the Australian version of ENSO. The USA has one as well but their criteria is less stringent than Australia (I like to think Australia has a better version because the effects are strong than in the US... I could be wrong but I will still stick to my unfounded belief system because I want Australia to be doing at least one thing right in terms of climate)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

[gerontocrat]

FEB UPDATE - ENSO Neutral.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 February 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance).

During January 2020, near- to above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 indices were near average (+0.2°C to 0.0°C), while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices were warmer at +1.2°C and +0.8°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. After decreasing in early to mid January, positive equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) slightly increased during the latter part of the month [Fig. 3]. Temperatures remained above average across most of the subsurface ocean, reaching ~150m depth in the central Pacific [Fig. 4]. During the month, westerly wind anomalies persisted over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level winds were mostly westerly over the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and was enhanced around the Date Line [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to mostly favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer. The forecaster consensus predicts the Niño-3.4 index will be at or slightly above +0.5°C for the January - March 2020 season, but then slightly favors ENSO-neutral for the February - April 2020 season. While it is expected that oceanic temperatures will remain elevated in the near term, particularly in the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, most models predict a gradual decrease in Niño-3.4 SST anomalies into the spring and summer. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 March 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[gerontocrat]

MARCH UPDATE - ENSO Neutral, possible La Nina tendency

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 March 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

[/b]
 
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance).

During February 2020, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident across the western, central, and far eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Nino-3.4 and Nino-3 indices were near-to-above average (+0.5°C and +0.1°C, respectively), with the Nino-4 and Nino-1+2 indices warmer, at +1.1°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) remained above average during the month [Fig. 3], with positive anomalies spanning the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific, from the surface to ~150m depth [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level westerly wind anomalies persisted over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern half of the basin. Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line [Fig. 5]. While the equatorial Southern Oscillation index (SOI) was negative, the traditional SOI was near average. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] favor ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere fall. Despite elevated Nino 3.4 index values in the near-term, the forecaster consensus expects the Nino-3.4 index values will decrease gradually through the spring and summer. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740[/size]

[grixm]

The 3.4 index has risen to the highest daily value in months:

[blumenkraft]

OMG, if this year becomes an El Nino year also, this will be apocalyptic indeed.

Imagine that...

No! Better not!

[Tom_Mazanec]

OMG, if this year becomes an El Nino year also, this will be apocalyptic indeed.

Imagine that...

No! Better not!

Maybe we need an apocalyptic year to wake people up?

[blumenkraft]

Well, considering the apocalypse will come anyway...

Maybe!

[wolfpack513]

Naw, we're finishing up the current ENSO cycle with El Niño type conditions for the 2nd year in a row.  People think of it as binary when the teleconnections or SSTs don't always fit a certain box.  The displacement of warmer than normal water in the equatorial Pacific & the ocean-atmosphere connection is what's important. 

Even though the warmest water has been in Niño 4 we still may trip the criteria for Niño 3.4 -  NOAA/CPC: 5 ONIs of +0.50°C or higher.  JFM should easily be the fourth ONI in a row.  For the last 3 months the strongest forcing as been centered right over the Niño 4 or near the dateline.

[blumenkraft]

Sorry for my ignorance, but what does that mean, Wolfpack?

Yea or nay El Niño? Because the forecast posted by Gero above indicates nay!

[wolfpack513]

Again saying yay or nay is binary.  That’s just criteria to keep objective annual records for CPC, BOM, etc..  SSTs anomalies are only part of the story.  Something important to remember is that Niño 4’s baseline is much warmer than 3.4, 3, 1&2.  The SSTs are >28°C the entire year.  So adding +1°C is giving you 29-30°C waters.  That’s a lot of heat for deep tropical convection = ENSO impacts. 

Even if 2019-2020 isn’t *officially* an El Niño, the displacement of warm water east still had impacts, including on the global mean surface temperature.  Pretty obvious the bump in GISS-LOTI in the fall of 2018 to 2019 and another bump in fall of 2019 to now. 

[grixm]

The April ENSO discussion concluded that ENSO-neutral conditions are present. No surprises there, however the Oceanic Nino Index for January-February-March was once again 0.5 C. This is the fourth month in a row, and historically it could be considered a proper El Nino episode if it persists for just one more month. And it is quite likely to do so, because April and March so far has stayed higher than January and February on average.

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

There is a caveat though, which may prevent the CPC from declaring an El Nino even if the FMA period clocks in at 0.5 C as well:

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The models also favor a drop in the index in the near future.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Hefaistos]

Rapid cooling in equatorial Pacific subsurface.
Southern Ocean is probably cooling as well.

Can we assume a La Niña in the works?

4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for April 2020
from:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2020&month=04

[Bruce Steele]

The PDO index has also gone negative for the last three months . These are the first consecutive  negative numbers we have seen since Dec.2013.
 Here is the old JISAO numbers

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

And here is the new format for the PDO index showing the negative incursion .

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.graph

There are already some biological changes with kelp showing some improved growth. Calif. water temperature are down which results in better biological productivity around here.

[mitch]

The spring period is hard to predict through, and what we are seeing now is the upwelling part of the kelvin wave (the cool part) that has traveled from the western equatorial Pacific. The predictions don't call for a la nina, but a cooler than average neutral period.  Wait a few months and we will see.

[grixm]

Daily index is plummeting to the lowest value in months.

[Hefaistos]

IOD seems to be going negative in the coming months, which indicates La Nina conditions.

"All models reach negative IOD levels at some point in July or August,"

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

".. the IOD is a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon, similar to ENSO but in the equatorial Indian Ocean. It is thought that the IOD has a link with ENSO events through an extension of the Walker Circulation to the west and associated Indonesian throughflow (the flow of warm tropical ocean water from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean). Hence, positive IOD events are often associated with El Niño and negative events with La Niña. "
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/IOD-what.shtml

[Hefaistos]

Furthermore, the SOI is moving into positive territory,
A consistent +ve SOI is part of the La Nina pattern.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi

[Hefaistos]

In reply #16 I mentioned the rapid cooling in equatorial Pacific subsurface.

Finally, a strong positive wind anomaly has formed over the past month in the far west Pacific.
Seems like a steady thing.

All these factors points towards a La Nina forming in the period from July to maybe November.

[gerontocrat]

In reply #16 I mentioned the rapid cooling in equatorial Pacific subsurface.

Finally, a strong positive wind anomaly has formed over the past month in the far west Pacific.
Seems like a steady thing.

All these factors points towards a La Nina forming in the period from July to maybe November.

Now wouldn't it be a bit scary if this year...
- we had a record high GMSTA and
- a continuing acceleration in Mauna Loa (& Global) CO2 ppm increase,
while at the same time
- a cool ENSO and/or La Niña and
- a record annual reduction in man-made Greenhouse Gas emissions ?

[pleun]

talk about runaway conditions...

[interstitial]

I probably screwed this up ENSO must be different.ONI index from NOAA indicates an El Nino now but it is almost the weakest possible to qualify for an el Nino. 0.5 is the lowest value to qualify and all but one of the 5 required three month averages are 0.5 the other is 0.6. My understanding is the NOAA defination has weaker requirement than the other definition?https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[wolfpack513]

It was pretty obvious a month ago that we were going to trip 5-ONIs in a row criteria for weak El Niño.  Simple math.  The JFM ONI was +0.6°C & the ERSSTv5 January value used for ONI was +0.5°C.  So for FMA to reach the 5th ONI(tri-monthly) of +0.50°C you just had to replace that January value with a +0.40 to 0.50°C.

[gerontocrat]

The US Climate Prediction Center says ENSO neutral with a slight lean to La Nina later in the year.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

 
Synopsis:  There is a ~65% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with chances decreasing through the autumn (to 45-50%).

During April 2020, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened and were near zero by the end of the month [Fig. 1]. All of the Niño indices decreased during the month, with the latest weekly Niño index values near +0.2°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) declined further and were below average [Fig. 3], due to the eastward expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures into the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the central and east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central and eastern portions of the basin. Tropical convection was near average around Indonesia and suppressed over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] favor ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere autumn, though considerable spread is evident at longer lead times. Nino 3.4 index values are expected to decrease through the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring and into the summer; with the possibility of below-average temperatures becoming more established toward the latter half of the year. The consensus of forecasters favors ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer and fall, and slightly tilts toward La Niña at the end of the year (~45% chance). There is a ~10% chance of El Niño from the summer through the end the year. In summary, there is a ~65% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with chances decreasing through the autumn (45-50%; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Hefaistos]

Crashing down into La Nina territory.

Also noticeable, how cold the Gulf stream looks this spring.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[Phoenix]

Crashing down into La Nina territory.

Also noticeable, how cold the Gulf stream looks this spring.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

That index is continuing to dive. cdas 3.4 is now at -0.5.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Funny thing... we are in La Niña territory but I am still hearing things like “hottest May in history” or “global temperatures at record”. What’s gonna happen when we get an El Niño?

[dnem]

Funny thing... we are in La Niña territory but I am still hearing things like “hottest May in history” or “global temperatures at record”. What’s gonna happen when we get an El Niño?

Nothing good.

[gerontocrat]

CPC say 'tis neutral with La Nina leanings later in the year

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

11 June 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

 
Synopsis:  There is a ~60% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with roughly equal chances (~40-50%) of La Niña or ENSO-neutral during the autumn and winter 2020-21.

During May 2020, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near-to-below average across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. All of the Niño indices decreased during the month, and the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.4°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) decreased further during the first half of the month, but rebounded slightly toward the end of the month [Fig. 3]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures prevailed east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central Pacific. Tropical convection departures were weak, but were enhanced near Indonesia and suppressed over the Date Line and west-central Pacific [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The forecaster consensus also favors ENSO-neutral during the summer, but then chances become roughly split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral beginning with the August-October season. That consensus mostly reflects the dynamical model guidance, which leans toward La Niña, along with ocean conditions that are somewhat favorable for the development of La Niña. However, enough uncertainty remains that the chance of La Niña remains lower than 50%, and it is unclear whether oceanic and atmospheric anomalies will lock in and persist. In summary, there is a ~60% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with roughly equal chances of La Niña or ENSO-neutral (~40-50%) during the autumn and winter 2020-21 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740[/size]

[oren]

When we get an El Nino we will get another massive leg up in warming, as we did in 2015/16. The previous leg up in 1998 lasted 15 years (the fake "hiatus"), the current  one may not even last half that.

[gerontocrat]

A La Nina watch has been issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for the first time since February 2018,

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-24/la-nina-watch-issued-increasing-chance-of-rain-2020/12385876

Key points:
A La Nina 'watch' has been issued by the Bureau of Meteorology
There is now twice the chance of a La Nina developing in 2020
Drought-breaking rain is considerably more likely in a La Nina year

[nanning]

^^
From: (Australian) Bureau of Meteorology     http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI

La Niña WATCH—likelihood of tropical Pacific reaching La Niña in spring increases
La Niña WATCH
ENSO Outlook

Both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remain neutral. However, cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean has continued, and the majority of models anticipate this cooling will be close to the threshold for La Niña by early spring. Consequently, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niña WATCH.

La Niña WATCH means the chance of La Niña forming in 2020 is around 50%—roughly double the average likelihood. Three models indicate a La Niña could form by late winter, with another two models suggesting thresholds could be approached during early spring. La Niña events typically bring above average spring rainfall in northern, central, and eastern Australia.

Key indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, are consistent with a neutral ENSO state. However, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled over the past two months, and are supported by temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are also cooler than average.

Despite recent cooling in the eastern Indian Ocean, three of six models continue to suggest the possibility of a negative IOD developing during winter or early spring. Most models show a broad spread of likely scenarios between the neutral and negative IOD range. A negative IOD typically brings above average winter–spring rainfall to southern Australia.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive and is forecast to remain positive for the remainder of June and early July. During winter, a positive SAM typically means less rainfall for southwest Western Australia, southern Victoria, and Tasmania.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, and is not expected to influence Australia's climate in the coming fortnight.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 July 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

 
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance).

During June 2020, sea surface temperatures (SST) were near average in the east-central equatorial Pacific and below average in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were near zero during the latest week, while the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices were negative [Fig. 2]. Negative equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened from May through June [Fig. 3]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over parts of the far western and eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system is consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] are roughly split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter. Based largely on dynamical model guidance, the forecaster consensus slightly favors La Niña development during the August-October season, and then lasting through the remainder of 2020. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 August 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
[/size]

[Hefaistos]

Revisiting La Nina territory now.

SH oceans really cool now, in terms of anomalies.

Forecast shows further cooling one week out.

[Hefaistos]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] are roughly split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter. Based largely on dynamical model guidance, the forecaster consensus slightly favors La Niña development during the August-October season, and then lasting through the remainder of 2020. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

The skill of the ENSO models is much higher in Fall than in Spring, this is known as the "Spring barrier".
Thus, the recent forecast of a La Nina developing is probably what we will get.
"The skill (or forecasting ability) of model runs based on February-October observations to predict the November-January (NDJ) average value in the Niño-3.4 SST region (ENSO)"  grows to around 70% in July, and to about 75% in August.

"One of the reasons that the spring barrier is said to exist is because spring is a transitional time of year for ENSO (in our parlance, signals are low and noise is high). The spring is when ENSO is shifting around— often El Niño/La Niña events are decaying after their winter peak, sometimes passing through Neutral, before sometimes leading to El Niño/La Niña later on in the year. It is harder to predict the start or end of an event than to predict an event that is already occurring. There is also weaker coupling between the ocean-atmosphere in the spring due to a reduction in the average, or climatological, SST gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean."

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break

[Hefaistos]

Here was a good call, some NASA researches called the current La Nina developing almost 3 years ago!

"Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability", published Dec.2017, by Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W.

"Abstract

Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be observed and physical processes to be studied. This result potentially opens the door to a broader understanding of solar variability on our planet and its weather. Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time."

Publication:
    American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2017, abstract #SH42A-05
Pub Date:
    December 2017
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..05L/abstract

[gerontocrat]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
 
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 August 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

 
Synopsis:  There is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance).

By early August 2020, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below average in the equatorial Pacific from the Date Line to the west coast of South America [Fig. 1]. The four Niño indices were negative during the latest week, with the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 indices at -0.6°C [Fig. 2]. Negative equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W), which had weakened during June and early July, began re-strengthening in mid-July [Fig. 3] as below-average subsurface temperatures re-emerged in the east-central equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. During July, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over portions of the far western, central, and eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] are split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter, but slightly favor La Niña from the August-October through the November-January seasons. Based largely on dynamical model guidance, the forecaster consensus favors La Niña development during the August-October season, lasting through winter 2020-21. In summary, there is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 September 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Hefaistos]

According to MEI.v2 the Nina started in June.
Press on tab #MEI.v2 Values  to see the table:

YEAR   DJ   JF   FM   MA   AM   MJ   JJ   JA   AS   SO   ON   ND
2020   0.3   0.3   0.2   -0.1   -0.2   -0.7   -1      

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[gerontocrat]

Yep, it's a La Nina, but nobody seems to have told the Global temperatures graph.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 September 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance).

In August, La Niña conditions were present, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last week, all Nino indices were negative, with the Nino-3.4 index at -0.9°C and the Nino-1+2 and Nino-3 indices cooler than -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies averaged across 180°-100°W were negative [Fig. 3], with the largest departures observed in the east-central Pacific from the surface to 200m depth [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific were also generally consistent with La Niña, despite sub-seasonal variability during the month. The low-level and upper-level winds were near average for the month as a whole, but enhanced low-level easterly winds were prominent across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during early and late August. Tropical convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict the continuation of La Nina (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus supports that view, and favors a borderline moderate event (Niño-3.4 index near -1.0°C) during the peak November-January season. In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Rodius]

Yep, it's a La Nina, but nobody seems to have told the Global temperatures graph.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 September 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance).

In August, La Niña conditions were present, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last week, all Nino indices were negative, with the Nino-3.4 index at -0.9°C and the Nino-1+2 and Nino-3 indices cooler than -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies averaged across 180°-100°W were negative [Fig. 3], with the largest departures observed in the east-central Pacific from the surface to 200m depth [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific were also generally consistent with La Niña, despite sub-seasonal variability during the month. The low-level and upper-level winds were near average for the month as a whole, but enhanced low-level easterly winds were prominent across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during early and late August. Tropical convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict the continuation of La Nina (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus supports that view, and favors a borderline moderate event (Niño-3.4 index near -1.0°C) during the peak November-January season. In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

I am not oppomistic about what the temps will do when the next El Nino appears. This has surely got to be a major concern for anyone who watches this stuff.

[Hefaistos]

I am not oppomistic about what the temps will do when the next El Nino appears. This has surely got to be a major concern for anyone who watches this stuff.

The question now is how strong and long the La Nina will be.
Upthread I quoted this paper, where they forecasted the now to be established Nina already 3 years ago, as the onset of Ninas is linked to solar activity:

"Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability", published Dec.2017, by Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W.

Similarily, the Nina can be killed off if the starting solar cycle 25 will pick up steam strongly during the coming year. If, on the other hand, it will be slow in the works, the Nina might be long-lived. Ninas usually don't grow very old though, historical max duration is about 2 years.
So far, SC25 is very peaceful.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Does the solar cycle give any hint of when the next El Niño will be?

[Hefaistos]

No, regrettably, afaik there are only weak connections between solar cycles and the start of an El Nino. No scientifically established theories/models are able to forecast an El Nino more than 3-6 months before it happens. There are many factors involved, aside from the sun.

The causation between a beginning SC and the onset of La Nina seems to be a more established theory and allows for some long-term hypothesising.

[Rodius]

According to Australia, we are officically in a La Nina.

For an overview
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI

For the details
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

[gerontocrat]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 October 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
 
Synopsis:  La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April).

La Niña continued during September, as evidenced by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The SST indices in the two westernmost Nino regions, Nino-4 and Nino-3.4, cooled throughout the month, and the Nino-3.4 index was -1.1°C in the past week [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged from 180°-100°W) remained substantially unchanged [Fig. 3], and continued to reflect below-average temperatures from the surface to 200m depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the tropical Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the east-central Pacific. Tropical convection continued to be suppressed from the western Pacific to the Date Line, and a slight enhancement of convection emerged over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Also, both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices remained positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicates the continuation of La Niña.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Nina (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 and to weaken during the spring [Fig. 6]. The latest forecasts from several models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest the likelihood of a moderate or even strong La Nina (Niño-3.4 index values < -1.0°C) during the peak November-January season. The forecaster consensus supports that view in light of significant atmosphere-ocean coupling already in place. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. October 15th).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 November 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[gerontocrat]

La Nina all winter 95% probbaility Jan-Mar

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 December 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June).

La Niña persisted during November, as indicated by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Most of the weekly indices fluctuated through the month, with the westernmost Niño regions Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 ending up around -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. The negative equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged from 180°-100°W) weakened slightly last month [Fig. 3], but continued to reflect below-average temperatures from the surface to 200m depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña. Over the western and central tropical Pacific Ocean, low-level wind anomalies were easterly and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Tropical convection continued to be suppressed from the western Pacific to the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Also, both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicates the continuation of La Niña.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 and to weaken through the spring [Fig. 6]. Supported by the latest forecasts from several models, the forecaster consensus is for a moderate strength La Niña (Niño-3.4 index values between -1.0°C and -1.5°C) during the peak November-January season. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance for January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during Apr-Jun; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect climate across the United States during the upcoming months. The 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 17th.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 January 2021.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction[/size]