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gerontocrat

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2020 ENSO
« on: January 10, 2020, 05:29:50 PM »
A new year, a new thread, and the first monthly update from the US Climate Prediction Center

They used to talk about "the Spring Barrier" which reduces confidence in predictions. But not this time. Nevertheless, ENSO Neutral considered the most likely.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 January 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Quote
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance).

During December 2019, near-to-above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident over the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Most SST indices increased in the past week, with the eastern Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 regions remaining near average (+0.1°C to +0.3°C), while the Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were warmer at +1.2°C and +0.7°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The recent increase in SST anomalies was partially driven by a combination of low-level westerly wind anomalies and the growth in positive equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W; [Fig. 3]). The latter indicates a downwelling Kelvin wave, which was evident in the above-average temperatures in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Over the month, westerly wind anomalies persisted over small regions of the western and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level winds were near average over most of the equator. Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and east of the Date Line, and was enhanced to the west of the Date Line [Fig. 5]. The overall oceanic and atmospheric system was consistent with ENSO-neutral, though recent observations reflected a trend toward warmer conditions that will be monitored.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to mostly favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer. For the December 2019-February 2020 season, the Niño-3.4 index is predicted to be near +0.5°C, which is consistent with the latest observations. The forecasters also favor above-average ocean temperatures to continue in the next month or two, but, in alignment with most model guidance, do not foresee a continuation over several consecutive seasons or shifts in the atmospheric circulation that would indicate El Niño. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 February 2020.

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Rodius

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2020, 02:13:33 PM »
It looks like the El Nino wants to start, but is struggling to get over the line properly.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Outlooks

It seems probable we will avoid El Nino this year, which is good news.

Freegrass

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2020, 06:31:58 PM »
The current in the Pacific is moving lots of warm water to the east. Is this a sign that an El-Nino is forming?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=198.72,-0.63,990/loc=40.752,-22.948
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Freegrass

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2020, 11:02:31 PM »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2020, 06:55:27 PM »
Quote
It seems probable we will avoid El Nino this year, which is good news.
Don't El Ninos form towards the end of the year? How reliable is this indication this early in the year?
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Rodius

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2020, 12:36:11 AM »
Quote
It seems probable we will avoid El Nino this year, which is good news.
Don't El Ninos form towards the end of the year? How reliable is this indication this early in the year?

They are fairly accurate, but not so much as to give a high degree of certainty.
At the moment the outlook for this year is still neutral.
El Nino can happen at any time, but some seasons are more likely than others..... the reliability can vary widely depending on the time of year. At the moment it is fairly reliable.

At the moment, it looks like it will be a neutral year.

This link is the Australian version of ENSO. The USA has one as well but their criteria is less stringent than Australia (I like to think Australia has a better version because the effects are strong than in the US... I could be wrong but I will still stick to my unfounded belief system because I want Australia to be doing at least one thing right in terms of climate)

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2020, 07:37:55 PM »
FEB UPDATE - ENSO Neutral.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 February 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance).

During January 2020, near- to above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 indices were near average (+0.2°C to 0.0°C), while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices were warmer at +1.2°C and +0.8°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. After decreasing in early to mid January, positive equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) slightly increased during the latter part of the month [Fig. 3]. Temperatures remained above average across most of the subsurface ocean, reaching ~150m depth in the central Pacific [Fig. 4]. During the month, westerly wind anomalies persisted over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level winds were mostly westerly over the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and was enhanced around the Date Line [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to mostly favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer. The forecaster consensus predicts the Niño-3.4 index will be at or slightly above +0.5°C for the January - March 2020 season, but then slightly favors ENSO-neutral for the February - April 2020 season. While it is expected that oceanic temperatures will remain elevated in the near term, particularly in the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, most models predict a gradual decrease in Niño-3.4 SST anomalies into the spring and summer. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 March 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2020, 06:52:18 PM »
MARCH UPDATE - ENSO Neutral, possible La Nina tendency

Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 March 2020
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
[/b]
 
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance).

During February 2020, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident across the western, central, and far eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Nino-3.4 and Nino-3 indices were near-to-above average (+0.5°C and +0.1°C, respectively), with the Nino-4 and Nino-1+2 indices warmer, at +1.1°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) remained above average during the month [Fig. 3], with positive anomalies spanning the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific, from the surface to ~150m depth [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level westerly wind anomalies persisted over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern half of the basin. Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line [Fig. 5]. While the equatorial Southern Oscillation index (SOI) was negative, the traditional SOI was near average. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] favor ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere fall. Despite elevated Nino 3.4 index values in the near-term, the forecaster consensus expects the Nino-3.4 index values will decrease gradually through the spring and summer. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
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grixm

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2020, 04:12:33 PM »
The 3.4 index has risen to the highest daily value in months:


blumenkraft

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2020, 05:16:14 PM »
OMG, if this year becomes an El Nino year also, this will be apocalyptic indeed.

Imagine that...

No! Better not!
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2020, 06:29:39 PM »
OMG, if this year becomes an El Nino year also, this will be apocalyptic indeed.

Imagine that...

No! Better not!
Maybe we need an apocalyptic year to wake people up?
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blumenkraft

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2020, 06:32:08 PM »
Well, considering the apocalypse will come anyway...

Maybe!
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2020, 05:10:07 PM »
Naw, we're finishing up the current ENSO cycle with El Niño type conditions for the 2nd year in a row.  People think of it as binary when the teleconnections or SSTs don't always fit a certain box.  The displacement of warmer than normal water in the equatorial Pacific & the ocean-atmosphere connection is what's important. 

Even though the warmest water has been in Niño 4 we still may trip the criteria for Niño 3.4 -  NOAA/CPC: 5 ONIs of +0.50°C or higher.  JFM should easily be the fourth ONI in a row.  For the last 3 months the strongest forcing as been centered right over the Niño 4 or near the dateline.

blumenkraft

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2020, 05:28:14 PM »
Sorry for my ignorance, but what does that mean, Wolfpack?

Yea or nay El Niño? Because the forecast posted by Gero above indicates nay!
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 ENS
« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2020, 07:54:28 PM »
Again saying yay or nay is binary.  That’s just criteria to keep objective annual records for CPC, BOM, etc..  SSTs anomalies are only part of the story.  Something important to remember is that Niño 4’s baseline is much warmer than 3.4, 3, 1&2.  The SSTs are >28°C the entire year.  So adding +1°C is giving you 29-30°C waters.  That’s a lot of heat for deep tropical convection = ENSO impacts. 

Even if 2019-2020 isn’t *officially* an El Niño, the displacement of warm water east still had impacts, including on the global mean surface temperature.  Pretty obvious the bump in GISS-LOTI in the fall of 2018 to 2019 and another bump in fall of 2019 to now. 

grixm

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #15 on: April 15, 2020, 06:22:09 PM »
The April ENSO discussion concluded that ENSO-neutral conditions are present. No surprises there, however the Oceanic Nino Index for January-February-March was once again 0.5 C. This is the fourth month in a row, and historically it could be considered a proper El Nino episode if it persists for just one more month. And it is quite likely to do so, because April and March so far has stayed higher than January and February on average.

Quote
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

There is a caveat though, which may prevent the CPC from declaring an El Nino even if the FMA period clocks in at 0.5 C as well:

Quote
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The models also favor a drop in the index in the near future.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Hefaistos

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2020, 02:02:55 PM »
Rapid cooling in equatorial Pacific subsurface.
Southern Ocean is probably cooling as well.

Can we assume a La Niña in the works?

4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for April 2020
from:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2020&month=04

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2020, 04:17:13 PM »
The PDO index has also gone negative for the last three months . These are the first consecutive  negative numbers we have seen since Dec.2013.
 Here is the old JISAO numbers

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

And here is the new format for the PDO index showing the negative incursion .

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.graph

There are already some biological changes with kelp showing some improved growth. Calif. water temperature are down which results in better biological productivity around here.

mitch

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2020, 10:05:40 PM »
The spring period is hard to predict through, and what we are seeing now is the upwelling part of the kelvin wave (the cool part) that has traveled from the western equatorial Pacific. The predictions don't call for a la nina, but a cooler than average neutral period.  Wait a few months and we will see.

grixm

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2020, 09:26:52 AM »
Daily index is plummeting to the lowest value in months.

Hefaistos

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2020, 02:24:10 PM »

IOD seems to be going negative in the coming months, which indicates La Nina conditions.

"All models reach negative IOD levels at some point in July or August,"

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

".. the IOD is a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon, similar to ENSO but in the equatorial Indian Ocean. It is thought that the IOD has a link with ENSO events through an extension of the Walker Circulation to the west and associated Indonesian throughflow (the flow of warm tropical ocean water from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean). Hence, positive IOD events are often associated with El Niño and negative events with La Niña. "
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/IOD-what.shtml

Hefaistos

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2020, 02:35:59 PM »
Furthermore, the SOI is moving into positive territory,
A consistent +ve SOI is part of the La Nina pattern.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi

Hefaistos

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2020, 02:42:52 PM »
In reply #16 I mentioned the rapid cooling in equatorial Pacific subsurface.

Finally, a strong positive wind anomaly has formed over the past month in the far west Pacific.
Seems like a steady thing.

All these factors points towards a La Nina forming in the period from July to maybe November.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2020, 03:02:29 PM »
In reply #16 I mentioned the rapid cooling in equatorial Pacific subsurface.

Finally, a strong positive wind anomaly has formed over the past month in the far west Pacific.
Seems like a steady thing.

All these factors points towards a La Nina forming in the period from July to maybe November.
Now wouldn't it be a bit scary if this year...
- we had a record high GMSTA and
- a continuing acceleration in Mauna Loa (& Global) CO2 ppm increase,
while at the same time
- a cool ENSO and/or La Niña and
- a record annual reduction in man-made Greenhouse Gas emissions ?
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pleun

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2020, 03:10:56 PM »
talk about runaway conditions...

interstitial

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #25 on: May 11, 2020, 11:32:16 AM »

I probably screwed this up ENSO must be different.ONI index from NOAA indicates an El Nino now but it is almost the weakest possible to qualify for an el Nino. 0.5 is the lowest value to qualify and all but one of the 5 required three month averages are 0.5 the other is 0.6. My understanding is the NOAA defination has weaker requirement than the other definition?https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2020, 05:29:32 PM »
It was pretty obvious a month ago that we were going to trip 5-ONIs in a row criteria for weak El Niño.  Simple math.  The JFM ONI was +0.6°C & the ERSSTv5 January value used for ONI was +0.5°C.  So for FMA to reach the 5th ONI(tri-monthly) of +0.50°C you just had to replace that January value with a +0.40 to 0.50°C.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #27 on: May 14, 2020, 09:10:20 PM »
The US Climate Prediction Center says ENSO neutral with a slight lean to La Nina later in the year.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

 
Synopsis:  There is a ~65% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with chances decreasing through the autumn (to 45-50%).

During April 2020, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies weakened and were near zero by the end of the month [Fig. 1]. All of the Niño indices decreased during the month, with the latest weekly Niño index values near +0.2°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) declined further and were below average [Fig. 3], due to the eastward expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures into the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the central and east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central and eastern portions of the basin. Tropical convection was near average around Indonesia and suppressed over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] favor ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere autumn, though considerable spread is evident at longer lead times. Nino 3.4 index values are expected to decrease through the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring and into the summer; with the possibility of below-average temperatures becoming more established toward the latter half of the year. The consensus of forecasters favors ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer and fall, and slightly tilts toward La Niña at the end of the year (~45% chance). There is a ~10% chance of El Niño from the summer through the end the year. In summary, there is a ~65% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with chances decreasing through the autumn (45-50%; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
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Hefaistos

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #28 on: May 16, 2020, 11:52:11 PM »
Crashing down into La Nina territory.

Also noticeable, how cold the Gulf stream looks this spring.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/


Phoenix

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #29 on: May 27, 2020, 11:28:22 PM »
Crashing down into La Nina territory.

Also noticeable, how cold the Gulf stream looks this spring.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

That index is continuing to dive. cdas 3.4 is now at -0.5.