I looked at the data and my tables, somewhat stunned. A minimum of 3.5 million km2 with average remaining melt?
<snip>
On average 65.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 61 days to minimum
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.
I'm going with 3.5-4sqMm. I would be genuinely surprised if it went below 3.5, but it looks like above 4 is now wishful thinking.
I am going to be 'genuinely surprised', aren't I?
I also voted on the 3.5-4.0 x 10^6 km
2.
And I am also going to be 'genuinely surprised' if it goes below 3.5.
But if this trend continues until the end of July, surely above 3.75 will be wishful thinking.
I am starting to think that 3.25-3.75 x 10^6 km
2 is the right place to be and it could go lower than that.
Let's wait to see what happens to Beaufort in the next 3 weeks.
Edit:
By "if this trend continues until the end of July" I mean that Gerontocrat forecast is 3.5 x 10^6 km
2 right now. I wonder if it will be the same on July 31
st.
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2,