Drought

[vox_mundi]

Turkey Drought: Istanbul Could Run Out of Water In 45 Days
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/13/turkey-drought-istanbul-run-out-water-45-days

Major cities across Turkey face running out of water in the next few months, with warnings Istanbul has less than 45 days of water left.

Poor rainfall has led to the country’s most severe drought in a decade and put the megacity of 17 million people close to running out of water, according to Turkey’s chamber of chemical engineers. The Ankara mayor, Mansur Yavaş, said earlier this month the capital had another 110 days’ worth in dams and reservoirs.

İzmir and Bursa, Turkey’s next two biggest cities, are also struggling, with dams that are about 36% and 24% full respectively, and farmers in wheat-producing areas such as the Konya plain and Edirne province on the border with Greece and Bulgaria are warning of crop failure.

Turkey is a “water stressed” country, with just 1,346 cubic metres of water per capita per year, and has faced several droughts since the 1980s due to a combination of population growth, industrialisation, urban sprawl and climate change.

“Instead of focusing on measures to keep water demand under control, Turkey insists on expanding its water supply through building more dams … Turkey has built hundreds of dams in the last two decades,” said Dr Akgün İlhan, a water management expert at the Istanbul Policy Center.

Turkey has long prioritised economic growth over environmental concerns and remains the only G20 country apart from the US yet to ratify the 2015 Paris agreement.

“The warning signs have been there for decades but not much has been done in practice.”

... Ultimately, Turkey’s cities need lots of rain, immediately, to avoid having to ration water in the next few months – and even sustained rainfall for the rest of the winter might not be enough for farming communities to rescue this year’s crops.



https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/istanbul/water-drama-continues-for-istanbul-as-dam-supplies-drop-to-critical-levels

[vox_mundi]

European Summer Droughts Since 2015 Unprecedented In Past Two Millennia
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-european-summer-droughts-unprecedented-millennia.html



Recent summer droughts in Europe are far more severe than anything in the past 2,100 years, according to a new study.

An international team, led by the University of Cambridge, studied the chemical fingerprints in European oak trees to reconstruct summer climate over 2,110 years. They found that after a long-term drying trend, drought conditions since 2015 suddenly intensified, beyond anything in the past two thousand years.

This anomaly is likely the result of human-caused climate change and associated shifts in the jet stream. The results are reported in the journal Nature Geoscience.

... Most studies attempting to reconstruct past climates are restricted to temperature, but stable isotopes in tree rings can provide annually-resolved and absolutely-dated information about hydroclimatic changes over long periods of time.

Büntgen and his colleagues from the Czech Republic, Germany and Switzerland studied more than 27,000 measurements of carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios from 147 living and dead European oak trees, covering a period of 2,110 years. The samples came from archaeological remains, subfossil materials, historical constructions and living trees from what is now the Czech Republic and parts of south-eastern Bavaria.

For each ring in each tree, researchers extracted and analyzed carbon and oxygen isotopes independently, enabling them to build the largest and most detailed dataset of summer hydroclimate conditions in central Europe from Roman times to the present.

"These tree-ring stable isotopes give us a far more accurate archive to reconstruct hydroclimate conditions in temperate areas, where conventional tree-ring studies often fail," said co-author Professor Jan Esper from the University of Mainz, Germany.

Stable tree-ring isotopes differ from the usual tree-ring measures of ring width and wood density, as they reflect physical conditions and tree responses rather than net stem growth. "While carbon values depend on the photosynthetic activity, oxygen values are affected by the source water. Together, they closely correlate with the conditions of the growing season," said co-author Professor Paolo Cherubini from the Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf, Switzerland.

Over the 2,110-year period, the tree-ring isotope data showed there were very wet summers, such as 200, 720 and 1100 CE, and very dry summers, such as 40, 590, 950 and 1510 CE. Despite these 'out of the ordinary years', the results show that for the past two millennia, Europe has been slowly getting drier.

The samples from 2015-2018, however, show that drought conditions in recent summers far exceed anything in the 2,110 years: "We've seen a sharp drop following centuries of a slow, significant decline, which is particularly alarming for agriculture and forestry," said co-author Professor Mirek Trnka from the CzechGlobe Research Center in Brno, Czech Republic. "Unprecedented forest dieback across much of central Europe corroborates our results." ...

Recent European drought extremes beyond Common Era background variability, Nature Geoscience (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00698-0

[kassy]

A background trend:

Atmospheric drying will lead to lower crop yields, shorter trees across the globe

A global observation of an ongoing atmospheric drying -- known by scientists as a rise in vapor pressure deficit -- has been observed worldwide since the early 2000s. In recent years, this concerning phenomenon has been on the rise, and is predicted to amplify even more in the coming decades as climate change intensifies.

...

In a new paper published in the journal Global Change Biology, research from the University of Minnesota and Western University in Ontario, Canada, outlines global atmospheric drying significantly reduces productivity of both crops and non-crop plants, even under well-watered conditions. The new findings were established on a large-scale analysis covering 50 years of research and 112 plant species.

"When there is a high vapor pressure deficit, our atmosphere pulls water from other sources: animals, plants, etc.," said senior author Walid Sadok, an assistant professor in the Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics at the University of Minnesota. "An increase in vapor pressure deficit places greater demand on the crop to use more water. In turn, this puts more pressure on farmers to ensure this demand for water is met -- either via precipitation or irrigation -- so that yields do not decrease."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/03/210308111954.htm

[Tom_Mazanec]

kassy:
Shorter trees (and lowered crops) mean plants will take up less CO2 in the future.
Can you say "positive feedback"?

[kassy]

Well yes and it will slow down growth in all the billion trees we are going to plant.

[vox_mundi]

Forecast for Spring: Nasty Drought Worsens for Much of US
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-nasty-drought-worsens.html



Weather service and agriculture officials warned of possible water use cutbacks in California and the Southwest, increased wildfires, low levels in key reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell and damage to wheat crops.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official spring outlook Thursday sees an expanding drought with a drier than normal April, May and June for a large swath of the country from Louisiana to Oregon. including some areas hardest hit by the most severe drought. And nearly all of the continental United States is looking at warmer than normal spring, except for tiny parts of the Pacific Northwest and southeast Alaska, which makes drought worse.

"We are predicting prolonged and widespread drought," National Weather Service Deputy Director Mary Erickson said. "It's definitely something we're watching and very concerned about."

NOAA expects the spring drought to hit 74 million people.

Several factors go into worsening drought, the agency said. A La Nina cooling of parts of the central Pacific continues to bring dry weather for much of the country, while in the Southwest heavy summer monsoon rains failed to materialize. Meteorologists also say the California megadrought is associated with long-term climate change.

Thursday's national Drought Monitor shows almost 66% of the nation is in an abnormally dry condition, the highest mid-March level since 2002. And forecasters predict that will worsen, expanding in parts of Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming and South Dakota, with small islands of relief in parts of the Great Lakes and New England.

More than 44% of the nation is in moderate or worse drought, and nearly 18% is in extreme or exceptional drought—all of it west of the Mississippi River. Climate scientists are calling what's happening in the West a "megadrought" that started in 1999.

With the Sierra Nevada snowpack only 60% of normal levels, U.S. Department of Agriculture meteorologist Brad Rippey said "there will be some water cutbacks and allocation cutbacks in California and perhaps other areas of the Southwest" for agriculture and other uses. It will probably hit nut crops in the Golden State.

Winter and spring wheat crops also have been hit hard by the western drought with 78% of the spring wheat production area in drought conditions, Rippey said.

The dry, warm conditions the upcoming months likely will bring "an enhanced wildfire season," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of NOAA's prediction branch.

[Tom_Mazanec]

The forecast for the USA is warmer than normal for over a year:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php
and the West is going to be drier than normal most of that time.

[Sigmetnow]

Daniel Swain  @Weather_West:  I've always said that "Triple R"-like features that require multi-month persistence are really only discernible in retrospect. Well, after looking at the data for Nov-Mar 2020-2021...it's back, and California's in another drought.

California
The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge returns…again
Daniel Swain, March 24, 2021

Portions of California–especially the SF North Bay, Sacramento Valley, and Ventura County–have experienced their driest “rainy season” to date since the 1976-1977 drought. (climatetoolbox.org)

The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are currently experiencing their driest season since the 1976-1977 drought (and a few places are running behind even that infamous season). This is doubly concerning as these same regions experienced a top-5 driest winter on record just last year–so this is now year two of exceptionally low precipitation in these areas. All of this is amplified by the prolonged periods of record high temperatures and drying offshore winds last year–both of which reduced water availability beyond what would be expected from precipitation deficits alone.

There are a few exceptions to the “exceptionally dry” categorization: patches of the Central Coast and central San Joaquin Valley benefited greatly from the powerful atmospheric river event earlier this winter and are merely 20-30% behind average, and some small areas in far southern coastal CA benefited from the southern-track cut-offs in Feb-Mar. Sierra Nevada snowpack is not exactly a bright spot, but at 65% of average for the calendar date it’s actually less dismal than overall precipitation deficits would suggest (thanks, in large part, to the cold AR event earlier this winter). But in general, California is in pretty bad shape water-wise heading into spring 2021–and I would expect the pre-existing drought to deepen considerably. Expect to hear much more about this in the coming weeks. ...

https://weatherwest.com/archives/8692

[vox_mundi]

Droughts Longer, Rainfall More Erratic Over the Last 50 years In Most of the West
https://phys.org/news/2021-04-droughts-longer-rainfall-erratic-years.html

Against the backdrop of steadily warming temperatures and decreasing total yearly rainfall, rain has been falling in fewer and sometimes larger storms, with longer dry intervals between. Total yearly rainfall has decreased by an average of four inches over the last half century, while the longest dry period in each year increased from 20 to 32 days across the West, explained co-senior author Joel Biederman, a research hydrologist with the ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center in Tucson, Arizona.

"The greatest changes in drought length have taken place in the desert Southwest. The average dry period between storms in the 1970s was about 30 days; now that has grown to 45 days," Biederman said.

Extreme droughts are also occurring more often in the majority of the West according to historical weather data as there has been an increase in the year-to-year variation of both total rainfall amounts and the duration of dry periods.

"Consistency of rainfall, or the lack of it, is often more important than the total amount of rain when it comes to forage continuing to grow for livestock and wildlife, for dryland farmers to produce crops, and for the mitigation of wildfire risks," Biederman said.

The rate of increasing variability of rainfall within each year and between years also appears to be accelerating, with greater portions of the West showing longer drought intervals since 2000 compared to previous years.

Notable exceptions to these drought patterns were seen in Washington, Oregon and Idaho and the Northern Plains region of Montana, Wyoming, and the most western parts of North and South Dakota. In these regions, the researchers found some increases in total annual rainfall and decreases in drought intervals. Together, these changes support what models have predicted as a consequence of climate change: a northward shift in the mid-latitude jet stream, which brings moisture from the Pacific Ocean to the western United States, according to Biederman.

Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States, Geophysical Research Letters, (2021)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL092293

[The Walrus]

Although precipitation increased by ~4% over the past century, regional and seasonal differences exist.  The desert southwest has been drier, especially in spring.  The northern portion has been wetter in spring, while the south has been drier.  Overall, the country east of the Rockies has seen an increase in precipitation, with the exception of the far southeast.  Interestingly, Florida has seen reduced rainfall during hurricane season.

[vox_mundi]

And here are the rest of the results that you left out from the study you failed to cite...

Global and U.S. temperatures continue to rise

The annual average temperature for the globe and the contiguous U.S. has increased 1.8 degrees F from 1901 to 2016.

Sixteen of the warmest years on record for the globe occurred in the last 17 years; the last three years were the warmest.



Variability in temperature and precipitation is increasing

Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 mostly a result of large increases in the fall season.

Heatwaves have become more frequent in the U.S. since the 1960s.

Cold temperatures and cold waves have decreased since the early 1900s.

Annual trends toward earlier spring snowmelt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western U.S.

Ocean temperatures are warming and an increase in sea level

Global average sea level has risen by about 7-8 inches since 1900.

Global average sea level is expected to rise by several inches in the next 15 years.

Temperature increases in Alaska and across Arctic are greater than the rest of the globe

Annual average near-surface air temperature in Alaska and across the Arctic has increased over the last 50 years at a rate more than twice as fast as the global average temperature.

Since the early 1980s, Arctic sea ice extent has decreased between 3.5 percent and 4.1 percent per decade, has become thinner by between 4.3 and 7.5 feet, and on average the season of melting lasts 15 more days per year.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR_Ch7_Precipitation.pdf

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

[The Walrus]

What you failed to note from the study is that while the heatwaves have become more frequent since 1960, they have not since the earlier part of the 20th century.  Selectively choosing the lowest point in the data to make a comparison, while ignoring the rest of the data seems to be cherry picking.  This is exemplified in the graph depicting summer temperatures, in which almost half the country has cooled, while the rest has warmed.  The annual increase has been driven almost exclusively by warming in the winter months, which is expected due to increased greenhouse gases.

[The Walrus]

By the way, decreasing cold waves and heat waves lead to less seasonal temperature variability.  Increasing temperatures in northern states, combined with decreasing temperatures in the south leads to less geographical temperature variability.  Just what aspect of the temperature do you believe is increasing in variability?

[oren]

Your lovely subject, the Dust Bowl years as a comparison basis.

[The Walrus]

Even before the dust bowl.  The recent heat wave index is comparable to 1900.  The cherry-picked low in the 1960s is evident.

[kassy]

This figure shows the annual values of the U.S. Heat Wave Index from 1895 to 2015. These data cover the contiguous 48 states. Interpretation: An index value of 0.2 (for example) could mean that 20 percent of the country experienced one heat wave, 10 percent of the country experienced two heat waves, or some other combination of frequency and area resulted in this value.

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures

One other take could be that things can indeed go badly quickly as the dust bowl spikes indicate.
Of course the underlying climate conditions change.

Other slide:
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures

This graph shows the percentage of the land area of the contiguous 48 states with unusually hot daily high and low temperatures during the months of June, July, and August. The thin lines represent individual years, while the thick lines show a nine-year weighted average. Red lines represent daily highs, while orange lines represent daily lows. The term “unusual” in this case is based on the long-term average conditions at each location.

Looks like an upwards trend.

[Shared Humanity]

Overall, the country east of the Rockies has seen an increase in precipitation, with the exception of the far southeast.

What is happening overall is really not the point though. With AGW and the resultant climate change, it is only the regional changes that matter with regards to the current land use.

The simple fact is the Southwest is seeing rapidly increasing temperatures and a drop in precipitation. Over the next 50 years these trends, unlikely to reverse unless we get a handle on CO2 emissions, will make it increasingly difficult to raise food and even inhabit cities where temperatures become excessive and already existent water shortages become even worse.

Increased rainfall across the Great Lakes states does not help the southwest but it has resulted in the highest lake levels ever recorded. Shoreline erosion is occurring across the Great Lakes and is likely to continue. Last fall, an emergency construction project was needed to prevent a section of US41 in Chicago from falling into Lake Michigan. Much of the project was very temporary in nature (massive boulders in a hastily repaired revetment) as the road was at risk of becoming impassable this past winter.

And if the increased rainfall was occurring steadily throughout the year, areas like Texas might even benefit but this is not happening. The Houston area had three consecutive 500 year floods from 2015 to 2017.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning

It also matters in what form the precipitation occurs. Winter wheat in the northern plains needs snow cover to thrive. If it only rains, the crops can fail completely.

https://extension.sdstate.edu/effects-snow-wheat#:~:text=Depending%20on%20the%20overall%20winter,crop%20stand%20in%20the%20spring.

[The Walrus]

Yes, the desert southwest has experienced increased temperatures and decreased precipitation.  This would make an already inhospitable region more so.  Over the rest of the continent, this is not the case. 

Another graph in the link by kassy shows the change in the number of unusually hot temperature.  Overall there were 15 locations with an increase of more than 25 days of hot temperatures above the 95th percentile and 17 locations with a decrease.  The locations that experienced an increase were largely in the southwest and Florida, with one each in the New York and Philadelphia areas.  The location with a decrease covered the area from the Atlantic ocean to the Great Plains, with one area in Utah.  It should be noted that these graphs only cover the latter half of the 20th century, omitting the hotter temperatures from prior years.  Still, the change is noticeable.

This areas that experienced a decrease in unusually hot temperatures were the same areas that had a significant increase in precipitation, and vice versa.  No real surprise, as cloud cover and rainfall tend to keep temperatures more moderate.  Fortunately for the U.S., this bodes well for the agricultural regions, which saw an increase in rainfall and a decrease in high temperatures. 

[Tom_Mazanec]

Drought conditions continue to spread across Northern Plains, Upper Midwest
https://www.echopress.com/news/weather/6975903-Drought-conditions-continue-to-spread-across-Northern-Plains-Upper-Midwest

Drought conditions have worsened in much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with North Dakota taking the biggest hit.

Stacy Fortner | Drought Shouldn’t Be Ignored
https://signalscv.com/2021/04/stacy-fortner-drought-shouldnt-be-ignored/

To date, the Santa Clarita Valley has received less than 4 inches of rain, its lowest rainfall in a hundred years, according to our local water agency. Our valley also normally receives around 50% of our local supply from the Sierra snowpack. It is measured several times each year in various river basins by the Department of Water Resources. With some areas receiving more snow than others, it is still generally below average this year. It going to be a tough water year for farmers and homeowners.

Study: Drought-breaking rains more rare, erratic in Colorado and the West
https://coloradosun.com/2021/04/07/western-monsoon-rains-colorado-drought-wildfire/

The consequences of the intense dry periods that pummeled the Rocky Mountains and the Colorado Plateau were severe — more intense and dangerous wildfires, parched croplands and not enough vegetation to support livestock and wildlife. And it's getting worse.

Forage Producers Face High Input Costs, Drought
https://www.drovers.com/news/beef-production/forage-producers-face-high-input-costs-drought

Higher fertilizer prices and poor precipitation outlook could mean thin margins and little room for error for cattle and forage producers this year, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.

California is on the brink of drought – again. Is it ready?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/06/california-is-on-the-brink-of-drought-again-is-it-ready

California is at the edge of another protracted drought, just a few years after one of the worst dry spells in state history left poor and rural communities without well water, triggered major water restrictions in cities, forced farmers to idle their fields, killed millions of trees, and fueled devastating megafires.
On Thursday, the unofficial end of California’s wet season, officials announced that the accumulation of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains and the Cascades was about 40% below average levels. The state doesn’t have enough snow and rain banked to replenish its groundwater supplies, feed its rivers and streams or fill depleted reservoirs.

Study: Drought-Breaking Rains More Rare, Erratic in US West
https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2021/04/08/303014.htm

Rainstorms grew more erratic and droughts much longer across most of the US West over the past half-century as climate change warmed the planet, according to a sweeping government study released Tuesday that concludes the situation is worsening.
The most dramatic changes were recorded in the desert Southwest, where the average dry period between rainstorms grew from about 30 days in the 1970s to 45 days between storms now, said Joel Biederman, a research hydrologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Southwest Watershed Research Center in Tucson, Arizona.

Only slight chance of rain in Jamestown area as drought continues
https://www.jamestownsun.com/news/weather/6969054-Only-slight-chance-of-rain-in-Jamestown-area-as-drought-continues

The forecast for the week from the National Weather Service includes only a slight chance of precipitation.

Drought in the West is Getting Worse
https://www.abccolumbia.com/2021/04/07/drought-in-the-west-is-getting-worse/

The drought in the Western United States is getting worse. It’s the most widespread since the summer of 2013. Mountain snowpack, which is an essential source of water for Western rivers and reservoirs, has declined by an average of 15-30% across the West since 1955. This is a direct result of Global Warming.

USDA, counties—not California—likely to declare drought emergencies
https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/15651-usda-countiesnot-californialikely-to-declare-drought-emergencies

As rangelands dry up, USDA will likely be the first to declare a drought emergency, said Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth on Tuesday. This will open up assistance to ranchers, who tend to be at ground zero for California droughts.

Colorado Weather: No Change In Colorado’s Drought Severity This Week
https://denver.cbslocal.com/2021/04/08/colorado-drought-severity-conditions-monitor-remains-change/

Despite the burst of needed moisture last Tuesday, most of the state of Colorado is staying high and dry this week. In fact, the storm system did not make a dent in the severity of the current drought situation.

E. Oregon county declares drought emergency
https://www.capitalpress.com/ag_sectors/water/e-oregon-county-declares-drought-emergency/article_aaf6bf75-2431-552f-8216-05554647b74c.html

The Baker County Board of Commissioners unanimously approved a resolution April 7 declaring a drought disaster in the county and asking Gov. Kate Brown and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to follow suit.

Out West, another dry year takes shape, as drought takes hold
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/4/5/22368305/drought-west-new-mexico

More than half of New Mexico is dealing with exceptional drought. Utah and Arizona are worse off, and Nevada isn’t far behind. California also seems to be in another drought.

Standing Rock issues Emergency Drought and Extreme Fire Declaration
https://www.kfyrtv.com/2021/04/08/standing-rock-issues-emergency-drought-and-extreme-fire-declaration/

The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe has issued an Emergency Drought and Extreme Fire Declaration.
With dry weather conditions increasing the likelihood of wildfires this spring and summer, the tribal government and the Bureau of Indian Affairs has extended a burn ban.

Borderland drought causing desert plants to die out
https://www.ktsm.com/weather/borderland-drought-causing-desert-plants-to-die-out/

“Something many have probably noticed is that many of our plants in our own backyards have been suffering, not just because of the winter season, but because of the lack of rain,” said KTSM partner Jason Laney, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service of El Paso.
The Borderland entered its third consecutive month of an exceptional drought, one the Borderland hasn’t seen since 2011.

Petaluma cattle ranchers brace for 'worst drought ever' as rainwater runs dry
https://abc7news.com/sonoma-county-cattle-ranch-drought-impact-two-rock-valley/10492771/
and https://www.whsv.com/2021/04/09/california-cattle-rancher-braces-for-worst-drought-ever/

So bad that this year, she has already abandoned her spring garden.
"We're at five inches of rain. Should be 18 or 19 by now," said her husband, Don DeBernardi.
To drive home the point, Don loaded us into his 4-wheel drive pick-up and steered up a hill to see the reservoir pond that fills with rainwater runoff every year. Looking out the window, we almost missed it.
"That pond should be running over right now," said Don.

Here in Twinsburg we are at the border or cusp between abnormally dry and moderate drought. I remember 1988. I read if 1989 and 1990 were as bad as 1988 civilization would start ripping at the seams. Our food stockpiles were depleted. WE don't have that kind of margin now. We can't afford another 1988.

[Tom_Mazanec]

More about drought in the world's breadbasket:

California slips further into drought status
https://www.abc10.com/article/weather/california-drought/california-drought-situation/103-0b693f08-12ed-4b35-a310-b8c856f6bc56

The US Drought Monitor lists more areas of California moving into higher levels of drought.

Drought and dry soils again will diminish Colorado’s spring runoff
https://www.aspentimes.com/news/drought-and-dry-soils-again-will-diminish-colorados-spring-runoff/

Forecasters: Streamflows down nearly 20% compared to snowpack for Colorado River headwaters, other basins

Drought conditions continue to spread across Northern Plains, Upper Midwest
https://www.brainerddispatch.com/news/weather/6975903-Drought-conditions-continue-to-spread-across-Northern-Plains-Upper-Midwest

Drought conditions have worsened in much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with North Dakota taking the biggest hit. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum on Thursday, April 8, declared a statewide drought disaster.

Drought conditions worsen across Texoma
https://www.kswo.com/2021/04/09/drought-conditions-worsen-across-texoma/

In this recent weather pattern, rain has been hard to come by for Texoma. We have gone 15 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, and as a result drought conditions have significantly worsened across southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. The city of Lawton and Wichita Falls are about (2.75′') below average so far from year-to-date.

Livestock Water Supply program announced as Governor Doug Burgum declares statewide drought disaster
https://www.jamestownsun.com/business/agriculture/6976444-Livestock-Water-Supply-program-announced-as-Governor-Doug-Burgum-declares-statewide-drought-disaster

The Drought Disaster Livestock Water Supply Project Assistance Program has been reactivated.

Drought monitor shows slight improvements in Lower Valley
https://www.valleycentral.com/news/drought-monitor-shows-slight-improvements-in-lower-valley/

Unfortunately, the mid to upper Valley, where the worst drought conditions exist, conditions have not seen the same improvements.

Burgum declares statewide drought disaster
https://kfgo.com/2021/04/09/burgum-declares-statewide-drought-disaster/

Governor Doug Burgum declared a statewide drought disaster on Thursday as 70% of North Dakota is in extreme drought, up from 47% last week with the remainder of the state in severe or moderate drought.

Oklahoma drought update: Drought quickly spreading
https://www.koco.com/article/oklahoma-drought-update-drought-quickly-spreading/36060812#

KOCO meteorologist Jonathan Conder says the Oklahoma drought is quickly spreading, just a little relief is coming in the next week.

Local lawmakers discuss plans to combat the drought
https://bakersfieldnow.com/news/local/local-lawmakers-discuss-plans-to-combat-the-drought

Governor Newsom was in Fresno today to talk about some big plans before the season kicks off.
Now, local law makers are focused on the drought conditions after a dry winter is now going into a dry spring.

California to pour $536 million into fire prevention amid drought concerns
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-pour-536-million-fire-prevention-amid-drought-concerns-n1263536

California Gov. Gavin Newsom struck a deal with lawmakers Thursday to free up $536 million for wildfire prevention as the state faces more drought and an elevated fire risk that experts warn could be as catastrophic as last year's historic infernos.

But hey, at least we had some rain last night in Twinsburg! 

[The Walrus]

This is not a surprise.  As a whole, the U.S. has become drier after a prolonged wet spell.  The NOAA SPI index shows that beginning in 2013, the contiguous 48 states were wetter that unusual, culminating in an extremely wet 2019.  The wetness showed up in the drought monitor also, as the extreme and exceptional drought categories covered 0.1% of the land during the summer months.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/us-drought-monitor-update-august-6-2019

[Shared Humanity]

Yes, the desert southwest has experienced increased temperatures and decreased precipitation.  This would make an already inhospitable region more so.  Over the rest of the continent, this is not the case. 

You chose to ignore the other points I made.

[The Walrus]

Yes, the desert southwest has experienced increased temperatures and decreased precipitation.  This would make an already inhospitable region more so.  Over the rest of the continent, this is not the case. 

You chose to ignore the other points I made.

Yes, because we were discussing the desert southwest specifically.  I live around the Great Lakes.  The current situation is not unprecedented.  Similar lake levels occurred during the 1980s, when lakes Michigan, Huron, and Superior set their high water marks.  This was accompanied by beach erosion.  Fifteen years ago, the lake levels were very low (near record); in some cases too low to launch boats.  Such is the case in an area that relies heavily on the annual rain- and snowfall.  See the graph from the U.S. army corps of engineers.

I cannot speak to the situation in Houston, except to state that the city is prone to flooding. 

[gerontocrat]

The US Drought Monitor has changed a lot in the last year or two. Playtime.

https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=0&selectedDateUSDM=20210406&selectedDateSpi=20210301


click to enlarge enormous image - and then click again

[Tom_Mazanec]

DROUGHT INTENSIFIES, 70% OF NORTH DAKOTA CLASSIFIED ‘D3 EXTREME’
https://www.agriculture.com/weather/news/drought-intensifies-70-of-north-dakota-classified-d3-extreme
This article gives a summary of each state's current drought status, and whether they are improving or deteriorating.

Parts of Bay Area enter extreme drought classifications

And as California continues to see abnormally dry conditions, lawmakers are urging Governor Newsom to declare a drought-related state of emergency.
This comes as most of the state is seeing dry conditions and water allocation is drying up for farmers across the state.

Opinion: Californians, get ready for drought water restrictions
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/editorials/story/2021-04-09/california-drought-water-restrictions-newsom-atkins

For the first time in five years, especially in the northern part of the state, California is facing a drought. After a hot and dry 2020, water supplies are only at half of normal levels, and state and federal water officials have warned farmers and local governments that shortages are on the horizon and that they should plan on how they will adjust.

For more, go to Google News and search for "drought".

[Tom_Mazanec]

Drought-plagued California and western U.S. may see another devastating fire season
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/10/drought-wildfires-california-west/

The drought, which led to the most extreme wildfire season on record in California and Colorado last year, is now worse

Drought in West deepens fears as fire season nears
https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2021/apr/11/drought-in-west-deepens-fears-as-fire-season-nears/?news-national

California and the West are falling deeper into drought and, with summer approaching, that portends another severe fire season.
As a disappointing wet season comes to a close and hope for spring rain fades, conditions are worse now than they were at this time last year, with exceptional and extreme drought now found throughout the region.
In California, that doesn't bode well, given that last year's more moderate rainfall deficits, combined with extreme heat waves, ushered in a record-setting fire year. It brought five of the six largest fires in modern state history, 10,488 destroyed structures and 33 fatalities. Some 4.2 million acres were torched.

But in you live in western Massachusetts don't worry (until you go to the supermarket) :-)
Incoming rain will help drought conditions in western Massachusetts
https://www.wwlp.com/news/local-news/incoming-rain-will-help-drought-conditions-in-western-massachusetts/

According to the U.S. Drought monitor, we officially have Level 1 drought conditions. There are worse drought conditions farther north into Vermont and New Hampshire.
But the good news is that we do have chances of rain in the next few days that will likely not rid the drought completely, but they will bring us in the right direction.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Western U.S. may be entering its most severe drought in modern history
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/western-u-s-drought-foreshadows-another-intense-fire-season/
and https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/547738-western-states-on-verge-of-worst-drought-in

That's because in 2000, the Western U.S. entered the beginning of what scientists call a megadrought — the second worst in 1,200 years — triggered by a combination of a natural dry cycle and human-caused climate change.
In the past 20 years, the two worst stretches of drought came in 2003 and 2013 — but what is happening right now appears to be the beginning stages of something even more severe. And as we head into the summer dry season, the stage is set for an escalation of extreme dry conditions, with widespread water restrictions expected and yet another dangerous fire season ahead.

Rare elk population declining due to drought conditions
https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/rare-elk-population-declining-due-to-drought-conditions/

The National Park Service says 152 tule elks have died from these drought conditions, and the situation is causing controversy over their habitat.
“This is a very rare animal. These are rare, native, endemic to California. Tule elk. They are a symbol of this area. Yet right behind this fence, 152 animals were allowed to die during a drought,” said animal activist Fleur Dawes.
The National Park Service announced a declining population in 2020 due to lack of food caused by drought-like conditions.

Missouri River Managers Turn Attention From Flood to Drought
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/south-dakota/articles/2021-04-12/missouri-river-managers-turn-attention-from-flood-to-drought

“Due to the lack of plains snowpack in 2021, below-average mountain snowpack, and dry upper basin conditions, we expect upper basin runoff to be below average.”

[Tom_Mazanec]

Drought hits California — and Newsom
https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/04/drought-hits-california-and-newsom/
and https://www.dailynews.com/2021/04/13/drought-hits-california-and-newsom/

As California faces another drought, it adds another factor in the recall campaign aimed at Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Drought in Plains a concern for U.S. corn and soy crops
https://thefern.org/ag_insider/drought-in-plains-a-concern-for-u-s-corn-and-soy-crops/
and https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/drought-in-plains-a-concern-for-us-corn-and-soy-crops

Drought in the northern Plains, increasingly important in corn and soybean production despite the region’s prominence as a wheat-growing region, may foil expectations of near-record U.S. corn and soybean harvests. North Dakota and South Dakota are parched as the planting season begins, and if dry weather continues, it could darken the crop outlook.

DROUGHT FORCING FARMERS IN THE DAKOTAS TO MAKE DIFFICULT DECISIONS
https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2021/04/drought-along-the-oregon-california-border-could-mean-water-cuts-for-farmers-tribes.html

The period of January to March 2021 was the driest in 126 years for North Dakota. Farmers are starting to make difficult decisions on planting and culling herds as the governor of the state declared a statewide drought disaster on April 8. Soil moistures across the state, particularly in western portions of North Dakota, are lacking sufficient moisture to sustain normal crop development growth. The first eight days of April 2021 offered little help as hot, summer-like temperatures, gusty winds, and low humidity across the state accelerated drying conditions. This was the third warmest start to April in over 30 years for North Dakota according to data from WeatherTrends360.

[Tom_Mazanec]

New snowpack totals suggest the 20-year Western drought will persist, intensify
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2021/04/13/new-snowpack-totals-suggest-20-year-western-drought-persist/7194800002/

Critical April 1 measurements of snow accumulations from mountain ranges across the region show that most streams and rivers will once again flow well below average levels this year, stressing ecosystems and farms and depleting key reservoirs that are already at dangerously low levels.
As the climate warms, it’s likely that drought conditions will worsen and persist across much of the West. Dry spells between downpours and blizzards are getting longer, and snowpack in the mountains is starting to melt during winter, new research shows. The warming atmosphere may also be suppressing critical summer rains from the Western monsoon.

Drought along the Oregon-California border could mean water cuts for farmers, tribes
https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2021/04/drought-along-the-oregon-california-border-could-mean-water-cuts-for-farmers-tribes.html

One of the worst droughts in memory in a massive agricultural region straddling the California-Oregon border could mean steep cuts to irrigation water for hundreds of farmers this summer to sustain endangered fish species critical to local tribes.

Drought Watch: 12 States Have Majority of Topsoil in Short to Very Short Moisture Conditions
https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/planting/drought-watch-12-states-have-majority-topsoil-short-very-short-moisture

USDA says 85% of New Mexico has short to very short topsoil moisture conditions. 77% of Texas is in that category. And 83% of North Dakota is seeing topsoil conditions that are desperately dry.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Epic Drought Means Water Crisis on Oregon-California Border
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-04-14/epic-drought-means-water-crisis-on-oregon-california-border and https://ktvz.com/news/oregon-northwest/2021/04/14/epic-drought-means-water-crisis-for-klamath-basin-on-oregon-california-border/ and https://ktla.com/news/california/prolonged-drought-means-water-crisis-on-oregon-california-border/ and https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/epic-drought-means-water-crisis-oregon-california-border-rcna688

Federal officials announced Wednesday that farmers who rely on a massive irrigation project spanning the Oregon-California border will get 8% of the deliveries they need amid a severe drought.

76 percent of the Western US is in a drought. That likely means another bad wildfire season.
https://www.vox.com/2021/4/14/22382445/california-wildfire-forests-summer-drought-heat-climate-change-gavin-newsom

Just as the freshly vaccinated start to resume barbecues and vacation travel in the coming months, wildfires are likely to force residents of Western states back inside.
The warning signs are written in the parched landscape from New Mexico to California. This time last year, 27 percent of the West was in drought — now that has risen to 76 percent, turning forests into matchsticks.

The spring preceding the drought of 1988 compared to Spring 2021
https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/the-spring-preceding-the-drought-of-1988-compared-to-spring-2021/

Through April 15 this spring has been much drier, recording just 1.88 inches of precipitation, just half of the 3.75 inches that fell in 1988. The entire March-May 1988 spring period was extremely dry and provided the antecedent conditions for the city’s benchmark hot, drought summer that followed. It logged just 5.42 inches, more than 4 inches below normal, and ranks as the city’s 11th-driest. That summer, Chicago logged a record 47 days 90-degree plus that included a record seven days of triple-digit heat. Nearly half of the Lower 48 experienced extreme drought, resulting in devastating crop losses and a price tag estimated between $80 billion and $120 billion.

If this year is going to be even worse than 1988 in the Midwest (this link is from Chicago), then I shudder for what is in store for the farmers this year.

[vox_mundi]

Epic Drought Means Water Crisis On Oregon-California Border
https://phys.org/news/2021-04-epic-drought-crisis-oregon-california-border.html

Hundreds of farmers who rely on a massive irrigation project that spans the Oregon-California border learned Wednesday they will get a tiny fraction of the water they need amid the worst drought in decades, as federal regulators attempt to balance the needs of agriculture against federally threatened and endangered fish species that are central to the heritage of several tribes.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation briefed irrigators, tribes and environmental groups early Wednesday after delaying the decision a month. The federally owned irrigation project will draw 33,000 acre-feet of water from Upper Klamath Lake, which farmers said was roughly 8% of what they need in such a dry year. Water deliveries will also start June 1, two months later than usual, for the 1,400 irrigators who farm the 225,000 acres (91,000 hectares).

"The simple fact is it just hasn't rained or snowed this year. We all know how dry our fields are, and the rest of the watersheds are in the same boat. ... There is no easy way to say this," Ben DuVal, president of the Klamath Water Users Association, told several dozen irrigators who gathered in Klamath Falls on Wednesday morning to hear the news.

"We all know what this is going to mean to our farms, our families and our community as a whole. For some of us, it may mean we're not in business anymore next year."

... "What we're seeing with climate change increasingly—year after year after year—is that there is not enough water to go around. This crisis should not come as a surprise to anyone," he said. "We have over-drafted our account, essentially, and now we have to deal with the consequences."

[Alexander555]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/technology/taiwan-drought-tsmc-semiconductors.html

[gerontocrat]

Attached is what you get when you search for US Drought on Bloomberg News

- and they have the cheek to have a major section on their website entitled GREEN

[gerontocrat]

From the NYT - for those who believed that water, being necessary for life, was a public good

BUSINESS

Wall Street Eyes Billions in the Colorado’s Water
Investor interest in the river could redefine century-old rules for who controls one of the most valuable economic resources in the United States.

By Ben Ryder Howe
Jan 3 2021

[interstitial]

Water allocation rules need to be completely rewritten but the rules were established over 100 years ago and any changes will result in a flurry of lawsuits which will have the courts making things worse again. That is assuming the new rules are better than the old rules an outcome that seems unlikely. Politicians know that nobody will be happy any result so they will continue to ignore the problem. If wall street is allowed to get involved they will just make it more expensive for everyone involved without helping the situation in any meaningful way.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Drought worsens in Arizona, over 50% in 'Exceptional Drought'
https://www.abc15.com/weather/impact-earth/drought-worsens-in-arizona-over-50-in-exceptional-drought

The drought in Arizona has gone from bad to worse, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report.
Data shows 99% of Arizona is in drought.
The area under Exceptional Drought (the worst kind) has expanded to cover 58% of Arizona, including parts of the Phoenix metro area. 55% of the state was in an Exceptional Drought last week.

Drought continues to spread into Michigan from west; could have impact on summer weather
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2021/04/drought-continues-to-spread-into-michigan-from-west-could-have-impact-on-summer-weather.html

A large part of the western half of the U.S. is in some level of drought. Now most of Michigan is in drought conditions or very close. If the dry soils in a drought stick around into summer, Michigan may have a hot summer.

Drought continues to spread
https://www.thefencepost.com/news/drought-continues-to-spread/

For the contiguous 48 states, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed 45.49 percent of the area in moderate drought or worse, compared with 45.05 percent a week earlier.
Drought now affects 92,634,827 people, compared with 89,338,129 a week earlier.
For all 50 U.S. states and Puerto Rico, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed 38.01 percent of the area in moderate drought or worse, compared with 37.64 percent a week earlier.

I've been getting power outages, so I would probably just post these even if kassy hadn't limited me...you can find a lot more links.

[gerontocrat]

It has to be said that the USA does a really good job on drought monitoring, always developing new measures.

And talk about West is West & East is East

https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions

See attached - click to enlarge to make readable

[The Walrus]

Yes, you could almost draw a line extending from the western Minnesota border down to Louisiana between wet and dry.

[sidd]

The line formerly around 100W marking the unirrigated growing line is moving east. There is some previous discussion on this forum eg

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,317.msg150046.html#msg150046 et seq.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg211849.html#msg211849 et seq.

sidd

[Tom_Mazanec]

Drought adds pressure on Central Valley farmers as other factors cause food prices to rise
https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/sacramento/california-drought-adds-pressure-on-central-valley-farmers/103-2ac3e6ac-64fd-4f73-9bca-6356a9c3d767

Amid rising fuel and labor costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the California drought is adding pressure on local farmers this planting season

Solvang asks residents to cut back on water as California faces drought
https://www.ksby.com/news/local-news/solvang-asks-residents-to-cut-back-on-water-as-california-faces-drought

At the Solvang City Council meeting last Monday, the council members approved a resolution to ask neighbors to voluntarily cut back on their water intake by 15%.
They also voted to impose mandatory restrictions and spend $400 thousand on supplemental water.
Solvang declared a stage one drought `condition as Santa Barbara County faces a moderate drought that is getting worse.

How drought is putting pressure on Californian farmers, driving up food costs
https://www.abc10.com/video/weather/california-drought/how-drought-is-putting-pressure-on-californian-farmers-driving-up-food-costs/103-b2be2cee-07f4-40ea-b0cd-5d400deb3a36

As Californian farmers are feeling impacts by the latest drought, here is how that is impacting your bill at the grocery store.

video

[Tom_Mazanec]

Drought could leave Wyoming ranchers with tough choices
https://buckrail.com/drought-could-leave-wyoming-ranchers-with-tough-choices/ and https://www.wyomingnews.com/rocketminer/news/state/drought-could-leave-wyoming-ranchers-with-tough-choices/article_49bd86e4-15d3-59c8-99fb-1c6908ad61a0.html

Ranching involves complex decision-making and risk management in the face of uncertainty about climate conditions. The profitability and sustainability of the industry depend on sufficient and timely precipitation for rangeland forage production. As a result, some ranchers may adopt strategies as a bet against droughts like the Tarvers did when they decided to destock, or reduce, 20% of the ranch’s inventory several months ago.

Why won’t Gavin Newsom declare a drought? California recall puts him in tough spot
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article250680579.html

A drought declaration could be politically fraught for Newsom, who faces a likely recall election later this year. By imposing strict rules on consumption, he could anger pandemic-weary voters, who might bristle if told to scale back on watering their lawns — something that happened during the last drought emergency.

Some good news:
Feds offer California new drought aid
https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2021/04/17/feds-offers-california-new-drought-aid/ and https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/04/17/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-federal-drought-aid-in-california/

To assist California, which is the nation’s largest food supplier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture recently declared a drought disaster for 50 counties. That makes growers throughout the state who have been struggling with parched conditions eligible to seek federal loans.

[Alexander555]

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/US-West-prepares-for-possible-1st-water-shortage-16108670.php

[Florifulgurator]

Excellent weather report. Looks like after some decades of not holding our breaths some serious SHTF in the Colorado River basin?

[Tom_Mazanec]

Dry tinderbox conditions raise concern about another drought
https://www.pressherald.com/2021/04/18/dry-tinderbox-conditions-raise-concern-about-another-drought/ and https://www.wwlp.com/weather/weather-news/dry-conditions-raise-concern-about-another-drought/ and https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/east/2021/04/19/303222.htm

Most of New England is already experiencing abnormally dry conditions or moderate drought.

Water levels low at Folsom Lake as California faces threat of drought
https://www.kcra.com/article/water-levels-low-folsom-lake-as-california-faces-threat-drought/36157128#

The latest snow survey from the California Department of Water Resources found the Sierra snowpack, where the state gets much of its water when it melts in the spring and summer, is well below normal for this time of year.
KCRA 3 spoke with people who said the low lake can be a concerning sight.

And a reminder...the USA is not the only place droughts can happen:
GIEWS Update: The Republic of Angola - Drought expected to significantly reduce cereal production and pasture availability, with severe consequences for food security in 2021 (19 April 2021)
https://reliefweb.int/report/angola/giews-update-republic-angola-drought-expected-significantly-reduce-cereal-production

Significant rainfall deficits and high temperatures during the 2020/21 cropping season have negatively impacted cereal crop and pasture conditions in key producing southwestern and central provinces.
Food insecurity in 2021 is expected to deteriorate in the affected areas, particularly in southwestern provinces that experienced poor agricultural seasons in previous years.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Drought threatens parts of North America
https://www.world-grain.com/articles/15163-drought-threatens-parts-of-north-america

Drought continues to linger from eastern and southern Canada’s Prairies through the majority of the western United States into Mexico. This region has seen little to no improvement in drought status since last autumn, which is not a good sign for spring and summer. Spring precipitation in these areas is an absolute must. Without the moisture the region is destined to heat up very quickly during the late spring and summer, translating into greater potential for high pressure to build aloft sooner and more intensely than usual. Temperatures this spring will become a critical indicator of what may lie ahead for US crop areas.

Trees weakening and dying in prolonged drought, New Mexico report says
https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/trees-weakening-and-dying-in-prolonged-drought-new-mexico-report-says/article_2e1b0dec-a129-11eb-8893-ef49a0696b9f.html

New Mexico’s relentless drought is stressing forests, making them more vulnerable to a widespread pest infestation that could cause a mass tree die-off if wetter weather doesn’t come, a newly released state report says.

Again, droughts hit other places than the 48 colonies across the pond:
Why the world should pay attention to Taiwan's drought
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56798308

If this and other reservoirs in Taiwan dry up, it could be detrimental for the global electronics sector, because so many of the products people use are powered by semiconductors - computer chips - made by Taiwanese companies.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Drought Continues To Ravage Western U.S.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jordanstrickler/2021/04/20/drought-continues-to-ravage-western-us/?sh=4b92cd4b5a72

"Dry is an understatement," northeast Colorado farmer Marc Arnusch, whose farm may have to idle 60% of its acres in the face of irrigation water rationing, told Progressive Farmer. "Last week, our irrigation district issued a 5% pro-rate, which means many of our farms will have two to four days' worth of irrigation water for the year."

Extended Dry Period Suggests State Could Be In ‘Mega Drought’
https://www.kpbs.org/news/2021/apr/20/extended-dry-period-suggests-state-mega-drought/

With consecutive years of record high temperatures and scarce rainfall, some climate researchers are hinting at the possibility that California has actually been in a protracted state of “mega drought,” which means the impact of climate change could be much more severe across the state.
As residents continue to adjust to a warmer, drier days and nights and increasingly devastating fire seasons, climate experts warn that the sustained extreme weather will have a severe impact on both the region's urban area and agricultural sectors.

Drought conditions could trigger the first water shortage declaration in the Southwest
https://thecounter.org/drought-could-trigger-water-shortage-declaration-in-the-southwest/

Drought conditions and rising temperatures have caused water reservoirs in the West to fall to historic lows. Now, new projections from the Bureau of Reclamation, the agency that oversees water management, indicate that the region may enter its first official shortage this summer. Lake Mead, a reservoir that serves multiple states in the Southwest, is projected to fall under the shortage threshold this June, which will in turn trigger mandatory water cuts in Arizona and Nevada. Not only would that jeopardize a crucial resource, which the region’s residents and farmers depend on heavily, but a water shortage could also affect the Hoover Dam’s capacity to generate electricity via the Colorado River.

[Tom_Mazanec]

California governor declares drought emergency in 2 counties
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/california-governor-declares-drought-emergency-counties-77229518

Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a drought emergency in two Northern California counties as the state grapples with depleted water supplies after a dry winter

White House moves to assist Western U.S. communities hit by drought
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-drought/white-house-moves-to-assist-western-us-communities-hit-by-drought-idUSKBN2C832K

The White House on Wednesday announced an effort to provide immediate support to farmers, tribes and communities suffering from worsening drought conditions in the Western United States.
After a meeting of the National Climate Task Force, President Joe Biden’s administration said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland would lead an interagency effort to coordinate the federal response to the water shortages.

Homeowners asked to cut outdoor water usage by 20%
https://www.parkrecord.com/news/summit-county/park-citys-extreme-drought-starts-to-impact-water-usage/

In mid-January, during a dry start to winter in the Wasatch Range, a climatologist said it would have to snow almost all the way through May for snowpack levels to approach normal.
And while enough snow eventually fell to satisfy skiers and snowboarders, the Park City area remains in extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, with summer and wildfire season on the horizon.
The snowpack has likely peaked and is melting into the area’s waterways, officials indicated. But because of historically dry soils, much of the snowmelt is being absorbed by the earth on its way to the area’s streams and rivers.

[vox_mundi]

Some Concerning Climate Data That May Have Flown Under the Radar: ...

Readout of the Third National Climate Task Force Meeting
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/21/readout-of-the-third-national-climate-task-force-meeting/

The Task Force was briefed by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and NOAA scientist Dr. Roger Pulwalty on the severity of the drought.

... In areas like the Klamath Basin in southern Oregon and northern California, lake levels today are lower than occurred during the Dust Bowl.

 As has been shown in previous years, severe drought conditions can set the stage for worsening wildfire seasons, which in 2020 alone caused $16.6 billion in damages.  The early, severe drought situation is just the latest manifestation of the pervasive and pernicious impacts that climate change is having on American communities.

---------------------------------------

... Actual scientists briefing policymakers. Something that was.missing from the last four years.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Mexico's drought reaches critical levels as lakes dry up
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/mexicos-drought-reaches-critical-levels-lakes-dry-77251025 and https://www.pressherald.com/2021/04/23/mexicos-drought-reaches-critical-levels-as-lakes-dry-up/ and https://www.pressherald.com/2021/04/24/mexicos-drought-reaches-critical-levels-as-lakes-dry-up/

Drought conditions now cover 85% of Mexico, and residents of the nation's central region said Thursday that lakes and reservoirs are simply drying up, including the country’s second-largest body of fresh water.
The mayor of Mexico City said the drought was the worst in 30 years, and the problem can be seen at the reservoirs that store water from other states to supply the capital.

Why the intense U.S. drought is now a megadrought
https://mashable.com/article/drought-us-southwest-megadrought/

"It's two decades long and probably the worst drought in at least 400 years," said Benjamin Cook, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who studies drought.

FARMER DESCRIBES DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE WEST
https://brownfieldagnews.com/news/farmer-describes-drought-conditions-in-the-west/

“We’re mid-70s and extremely dry,” he says. “We’ve had essentially no rain for the year and are in an exceptional drought, if not a severe drought.”

[Tom_Mazanec]

Modest rainfall fails to quench spring drought in McLennan County area
https://wacotrib.com/news/local/modest-rainfall-fails-to-quench-spring-drought-in-mclennan-county-area/article_a9d85208-a46e-11eb-bc29-7bdb1d11786c.html

But the fact remains Waco and McLennan County are 6 inches below the norm since the year began, said Allison Prater, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

Weekend rain will ease drought conditions for a couple of weeks
https://krcrtv.com/news/local/weekend-rain-will-ease-drought-conditions-for-a-couple-of-weeks

Although we are expecting rain this weekend, it may only bring some short-term relief to our fire danger.
Local Predictive Services says fuel conditions are historically low or dry compared to the last three decades.
Since October 1, 2020, we are about 17 inches below the normal amount of rain which is typically around 30 inches. Brent Wachter, a fire meteorologist with Local Predictive Services says this upcoming precipitation will help conditions for about one to two weeks.

Drought intensifies in Jamestown region
https://www.jamestownsun.com/news/weather/6996939-Drought-intensifies-in-Jamestown-region

As of April 22, Jamestown had received 0.14 inches of moisture this month compared to a normal of 0.70 and just 0.06 last year at this time.
The year-to-date precipitation numbers are similar with 0.53 inches of moisture so far this year compared to an average of 2.39 inches and just 0.21 inches last year at this time.

Note: North dakota