WEF: Global Risk Report 2021

[vox_mundi]

WEF The Global Risks Report 2021
http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-report-2021/

Report: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2021.pdf

In the Global Risks Report 2021, we share the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), followed by analysis of growing social, economic and industrial divisions, their interconnections, and their implications on our ability to resolve major global risks requiring societal cohesion and global cooperation.

... Among the highest likelihood risks of the next ten years are extreme weather, climate action failure and human-led environmental damage; as well as digital power concentration, digital inequality and cybersecurity failure. Among the highest impact risks of the next decade, infectious diseases are in the top spot, followed by climate action failure and other environmental risks; as well as weapons of mass destruction, livelihood crises, debt crises and IT infrastructure breakdown.

When it comes to the time-horizon within which these risks will become a critical threat to the world, the most imminent threats – those that are most likely in the next two years – include employment and livelihood crises, widespread youth disillusionment, digital inequality, economic stagnation, human-made environmental damage, erosion of societal cohesion, and terrorist attacks.

Economic risks feature prominently in the 3-5 year timeframe, including asset bubbles, price instability, commodity shocks and debt crises; followed by geopolitical risks, including interstate relations and conflict, and resource geopolitization. In the 5-10 year horizon, environmental risks such as biodiversity loss, natural resource crises and climate action failure dominate; alongside weapons of mass destruction, adverse effects of technology and collapse of states or multilateral institutions.

Climate change—to which no one is immune—continues to be a catastrophic risk. Although lockdowns worldwide caused global emissions to fall in the first half of 2020, evidence from the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis warns that emissions could bounce back. A shift towards greener economies cannot be delayed until the shocks of the pandemic subside. “Climate action failure” is the most impactful and second most likely long-term risk identified in the GRPS.

Responses to the pandemic have caused new domestic and geopolitical tensions that threaten stability. Digital division and a future “lost generation” are likely to test social cohesion from within borders—exacerbating geopolitical fragmentation and global economic fragility. With stalemates and flashpoints increasing in frequency, GRPS respondents rated “state collapse” and “multilateralism collapse” as critical long-term threats.

[morganism]

Governments are failing to understand global catastrophic risks and need to take urgent action, says new report

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/governments-are-failing-to-understand-global-catastrophic-risks-and-need-to-take-urgent-action-says

Researchers from Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) today release a new report on what governments can do to understand and inform policy around these risks, which could threaten the global population.

The likelihood that a global catastrophe will occur in the next 20 years is uncertain, say the researchers, but the potential severity means that national governments have a responsibility to their citizens to manage these types of risks.

The report provides 59 practical options for how governments can better understand the risks. Ranging from improving risk management practices to developing better futures analysis, to increasing science and research capability, most national governments must take major policy efforts to match the scale and complexity of the problem, say the researchers.

Catherine Rhodes, CSER’s Executive Director, said: “This report gives policy-makers a set of clear, achievable and effective options. Few countries are making efforts to understand these risks, so most governments will be able to draw policy ideas from the report.

“In the UK, the government is ahead of its peers when it comes to conducting national risk assessments, delivering foresight and horizon-scanning and engaging with the academic community. But even it needs new approaches to understand and deal with global catastrophic risks.”

https://www.gcrpolicy.com/

[neal]

Virtually all countries are in the mode of stumbling from crisis to crisis, with election cycle performative BS impinging on more of the calendar, eliminating the possibility of "reaching across the aisle" for effective and long-lasting solutions.

Thanks for the help, WEF, but apparently the next election must be fought to the death right now.

[etienne]

Virtually all countries are in the mode of stumbling from crisis to crisis, with election cycle performative BS impinging on more of the calendar, eliminating the possibility of "reaching across the aisle" for effective and long-lasting solutions.

Thanks for the help, WEF, but apparently the next election must be fought to the death right now.

Next elections are everywhere an issue if we don't want our local Putin.

Mental health and youth disillusionment are big worries because it has a major impact on how we can build our future.

[neal]

Next elections are everywhere an issue if we don't want our local Putin.

Mental health and youth disillusionment are big worries because it has a major impact on how we can build our future.

I agree totally, the next election will be key.  Here, in the US, it's all currently being spun around  on Qanon topics like pedophilia, illegal immigrants, Trump getting the election stolen, transgender and gays--sure points can be discussed on all of those points by it's all a whirlwind ofcrazy assertions every day.

What I can say is that many people have completely bought into the online pollution of people like Putin to the deepest internalized degree.

[kassy]

And that´s far enough off topic. Any general talk about elections can go into politics.

[vox_mundi]

Global Risks Report 2023
https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2023/

The world faces a set of risks that feel both wholly new and eerily familiar. The Global Risks Report 2023 explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade. As we stand on the edge of a low-growth and low-cooperation era, tougher trade-offs risk eroding climate action, human development and future resilience.

Report: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf

[neal]

My vote is on dis- and mis-information applied to a society that doesn't have cohesion.

Every path forward blocked by random conspiracy theories

It'll stop solutions every time.

[Alexander555]

I think one of the most impotant things is not even in it, desertification. It is related to the water crisis and the loss of biodiversity. But how many years can you turn 12 million hectares into desert before you get into deep deep deep troubles ? Not for many years, that's for sure. https://www.fao.org/in-action/action-against-desertification/overview/desertification-and-land-degradation/en/

[The Walrus]

I think one of the most impotant things is not even in it, desertification. It is related to the water crisis and the loss of biodiversity. But how many years can you turn 12 million hectares into desert before you get into deep deep deep troubles ? Not for many years, that's for sure. https://www.fao.org/in-action/action-against-desertification/overview/desertification-and-land-degradation/en/

This particular climate scientist feels that human activities have a very small effect on the worlds deserts.

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/09/18/great-green-wall-sahara-desertification/

[kassy]

It is specifically about the Sahara and the Green wall. In many other places there have been succesfull projects but how well they will hold up against the future changes remains to be seen.

In a way it is in the list but hiding in several categories.

[Alexander555]

I think one of the most impotant things is not even in it, desertification. It is related to the water crisis and the loss of biodiversity. But how many years can you turn 12 million hectares into desert before you get into deep deep deep troubles ? Not for many years, that's for sure. https://www.fao.org/in-action/action-against-desertification/overview/desertification-and-land-degradation/en/

This particular climate scientist feels that human activities have a very small effect on the worlds deserts.

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/09/18/great-green-wall-sahara-desertification/

For the land turned into desert today it's probably all caused by humans. Long term deforestation, some population growth, some more catle....And nothing properly managed for hundreds of years. Not even today. If you put one of todays heat domes on top of that. And for most places you don't have to count on pioneer forests. Not even in Spain. Or they would have been there already a long time ago. Even over here it will become harder just to count on nature to recover. We have some wild chestnut trees next to the roads. I picked up some of them, to use them to enrich the soil a little bit . But they all started to grow. So i let them grow to use the brunches for my wood wall. The first year ( a wet year) They grew maybe 10 inches. Lost year not a single inch. Half way summer they dropped their leaves because it was so dry. And most of the last years have been very dry. A chestnut is not a pioneer tree. But a bone dry soil will make it only harder for a pioneer to grow. And that's already pretty far from the equator. So it's all going to need more help to recover.

[The Walrus]

I think one of the most impotant things is not even in it, desertification. It is related to the water crisis and the loss of biodiversity. But how many years can you turn 12 million hectares into desert before you get into deep deep deep troubles ? Not for many years, that's for sure. https://www.fao.org/in-action/action-against-desertification/overview/desertification-and-land-degradation/en/

This particular climate scientist feels that human activities have a very small effect on the worlds deserts.

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/09/18/great-green-wall-sahara-desertification/

For the land turned into desert today it's probably all caused by humans. Long term deforestation, some population growth, some more catle....And nothing properly managed for hundreds of years. Not even today. If you put one of todays heat domes on top of that. And for most places you don't have to count on pioneer forests. Not even in Spain. Or they would have been there already a long time ago. Even over here it will become harder just to count on nature to recover. We have some wild chestnut trees next to the roads. I picked up some of them, to use them to enrich the soil a little bit . But they all started to grow. So i let them grow to use the brunches for my wood wall. The first year ( a wet year) They grew maybe 10 inches. Lost year not a single inch. Half way summer they dropped their leaves because it was so dry. And most of the last years have been very dry. A chestnut is not a pioneer tree. But a bone dry soil will make it only harder for a pioneer to grow. And that's already pretty far from the equator. So it's all going to need more help to recover.

That may be true for certian regions on a smaller scale.  On a larger scale, using the Sahara in particular, desertification is controlled mainly by the regional climate, although vegetation can have important impacts and feedbacks.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332220301007

[kassy]

It´s both. The large scale limits are set by climate but we farm what we can. Farming monocrops every year leads to soil erosion and nutrient depletion and this can give you deserts too. And of course we use many rivers for hydro which also does not help (see Iraq).

We can change this but these means changing our policies. 

[The Walrus]

It´s both. The large scale limits are set by climate but we farm what we can. Farming monocrops every year leads to soil erosion and nutrient depletion and this can give you deserts too. And of course we use many rivers for hydro which also does not help (see Iraq).

We can change this but these means changing our policies.

Changing policies and climate have led to a decrease in desert area so far this century.

"The majority of our identified deserts across the globe did not show expanding trends from 2000 to 2019. This finding was consistent with the results from previous studies that showed general decreasing trends of global desertification and dryland degradation in recent decades."

https://www.authorea.com/doi/full/10.22541/au.164552330.06546725/v1

"In both hot and cold deserts, the vegetation cover diversity changing trends in surrounding desert areas were consistently the strongest predictors. The following four most important predictors were cattle density, initial other vegetation coverage, initial bare coverage and initial precipitation level in hot deserts."

"The 2019 IPCC special report, which used the trend in annual maximum NDVI from 1982 to 2015 to examine the ecosystem condition changes in global drylands, also found that the ecosystem condition was improving even in arid and hyper-arid regions (Mirzabaev et al., 2019). From the perspective of future projections, Berg & McColl (2021) predicted no global drylands expansion by the end of the 21st century through an ecohydrological index under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The general stable and shrinking desert trends across the globe found in our study are also in accordance with this trajectory."

Those areas that did show an increase in desert area, unsustainable agricultural practicies and overgrazing were the main causes.

[Alexander555]

This is the annual rainfall for Argentina. The last 20 years they are getting less rain. The years before it was going up. The last 20 years they  have become an agro powerhouse. So are they getting less rain because of climate change ? Because in general you read that a warmer world makes the air to hold more moisture. That would explain the rise before the last 20 years. In general you read that places become a desert because of climate change. And i'm not talking about changing wind patterns. It's a big difference. Getting less rain because of climate change. Or getting less rain because you become a desert.  The 2th would be good news in some way. If you make a chanse, you will get some help from nature. If it's because of climate change, your stuck in that long term trend. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/precipitation

[Alexander555]

If it's the first one, you have one big problem. If it's the second one, you have two big problems. And even if you solve the first one, by capturing carbon  or using less fossil fuels. You will still become a desert. Maybe at a slower speed. With all that extra heat it's a bad time to become a desert.

[Alexander555]

With a little luck the next years will become an eye opener for many people. Because losses are going to accumulate at a much higher rate. It will become more critical at many places.

[oren]

My vote is on dis- and mis-information applied to a society that doesn't have cohesion.

Every path forward blocked by random conspiracy theories

It'll stop solutions every time.

Indeed.

[kassy]

This is the annual rainfall for Argentina.

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/precipitation

On the link you can expand the years and as you can see it is also dry in 1920-30. So the explanation is more complicated if you want to work it out or simple if you go for not enough data.

[The Walrus]

This is the annual rainfall for Argentina.

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/precipitation

On the link you can expand the years and as you can see it is also dry in 1920-30. So the explanation is more complicated if you want to work it out or simple if you go for not enough data.

Eyeballing the graph in the link, the rainfall looks to be about:

1920-40:  ~525 mm
1940-60:  ~570
1960-80:  ~580
1980-00:  ~630
2000-20:  ~600

The wettest years were (in order) 2002, 1983, 1991, 2000, 2001, and 1993.
The driest years were 1937, 1923, 1962, 1929, 1935, and 1988.

Overall, precipitation has increased over the past century, although there are indications that the trend may be starting to reverse.

[Alexander555]

That average can hide large differences. For the US average precipitation is rising. In reality i think the east is getting wetter, and the west drier. Many of these places with long droughts don't show it in that average number. Like Ethiopia, probably the highlands get more.  https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/precipitation

[Sebastian Jones]

If average temperatures are rising while average precipitation amount is flat, declining or very slowly rising, increased evaporations-transpiration will result in effective drying.

[The Walrus]

If average temperatures are rising while average precipitation amount is flat, declining or very slowly rising, increased evaporations-transpiration will result in effective drying.

For the most part, both temperature and precipitation are rising.  Although I cannot say whether the relative rates of each result in more or less evaporations-transpiration.

[Human Habitat Index]

If average temperatures are rising while average precipitation amount is flat, declining or very slowly rising, increased evaporations-transpiration will result in effective drying.

For the most part, both temperature and precipitation are rising.  Although I cannot say whether the relative rates of each result in more or less evaporations-transpiration.

There is the issue of Vapour Pressure Deficit to take into account.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-51857-8

[kassy]

Interesting:

Abstract
We show a recent increasing trend in Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) over tropical South America in dry months with values well beyond the range of trends due to natural variability of the climate system defined in both the undisturbed Preindustrial climate and the climate over 850–1850 perturbed with natural external forcing. This trend is systematic in the southeast Amazon but driven by episodic droughts (2005, 2010, 2015) in the northwest, with the highest recoded VPD since 1979 for the 2015 drought. The univariant detection analysis shows that the observed increase in VPD cannot be explained by greenhouse-gas-induced (GHG) radiative warming alone. The bivariate attribution analysis demonstrates that forcing by elevated GHG levels and biomass burning aerosols are attributed as key causes for the observed VPD increase. We further show that There is a negative trend in evaporative fraction in the southeast Amazon, where lack of atmospheric moisture, reduced precipitation together with higher incoming solar radiation (~7% decade−1 cloud-cover reduction) influences the partitioning of surface energy fluxes towards less evapotranspiration. The VPD increase combined with the decrease in evaporative fraction are the first indications of positive climate feedback mechanisms, which we show that will continue and intensify in the course of unfolding anthropogenic climate change.

[BeeKnees]

Changes in rainfall over Argentina can be partly explained by the hadley cell expanding

https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion#more

As the earth warms the Hadley cell expands, pushing the drier descending air  to move towards the Poles. 

With most of Argentina being around 30-40 degrees south it will be significantly effected in the same way parts of Spain are drying as the Hadley cell expands.

[Alexander555]

Firefighters with flamethrowers. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/1/29/greening-ourselves-to-extinction

[trm1958]

Firefighters with flamethrowers. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/1/29/greening-ourselves-to-extinction

“And ic conclusion, while the End of the World scenario is rife with horrific suffering, it also poses an excellent opportunity for a high return on investment”

[dnem]