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What will PIOMAS 2021 Arctic sea ice volume Sept. average be?

Above 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
3 (8.6%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 10^3 km^3
12 (34.3%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 10^3 km^3
13 (37.1%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 10^3 km^3
4 (11.4%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 10^3 km^3
2 (5.7%)
Under 3.00 10^3 km^3
1 (2.9%)

Total Members Voted: 35

Voting closed: July 11, 2021, 12:31:36 AM

Author Topic: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll  (Read 987 times)

Juan C. García

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PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2021, 12:31:36 AM »
Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year       Volume
          (10^3 km3)
2000       11.08
2001       12.28
2002       10.85
2003       10.28
2004       10.04
2005         9.28
2006         9.11
2007         6.53
2008         7.25
2009         6.92
2010         4.74
2011         4.48
2012         3.79
2013         5.48
2014         6.97
2015         5.85
2016         4.53
2017         4.68
2018         5.08
2019         4.19
2020         4.16

From lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2021, 12:37:57 AM »
For the moment, I changing my vote to 4.0-4.5K km3.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2021, 07:51:46 AM »
I stay with my June poll value of a PIOMAS Sep average between 4.0 and 4.5 k km³, probably in the middle of this interval. High confidence.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

oren

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2021, 01:36:11 PM »
Keeping my June vote of 3.75-4.25 but probability is a bit lower, it could exceed the upper limit of the range.

gerontocrat

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2021, 04:41:16 PM »
I attach the graph of the projection of the September monthly average of volume given volume loss from now will be at the 10 year average (and volume gain in the 2nd half of September).

Note that this does not take account of the early July large sea ice extent reductions as the PIOMAS data is to June 30, and that's all we will get.

The Sept average volume projection is 4.22 thousand km3, some 230 km3 above the long-term linear trend (though less than the linear trend average of a yearly loss of 320 km3).

Because of the recent sea ice area and extent losses, my inclination guess is that this 4.22 thousand km3 is towrds the upper boundary, with a real possibility of a figure of around 4,000 km3 close to the linear trend. So my vote is 3.75 to 4.25 thousand km3.

But what do I know?
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KenB

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2021, 11:25:37 PM »
Keeping my June vote of 3.75-4.25 but probability is a bit lower, it could exceed the upper limit of the range.

Same for me.
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icefisher

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2021, 01:16:38 AM »
My guess is a range from 4.14 - 4.34 with a 4.26 target.

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2021, 06:01:48 AM »
I am going to keep my vote on the 4.0-4.5K km3 (2019 & 2020: 2nd and 3rd lowest in the middle).

Only one day left to vote or change your vote. (And make your post  ;) )
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Brigantine

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2021, 07:29:29 AM »
4.0 - 4.5

Just carrying my June entry forward.