Maximum Credible Domino Scenario (MCDS) – References & Conversion Factors

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MAXIMUM CREDIBLE DOMINO SCENARIO (MCDS) – References & Conversion Factors

This MCDS-REF thread provides the related Maximum Credible Domino Scenario (MCDS, which can be thought of as a 'Perfect Storm' scenario) references and selected related conversion factors.

Table of Contents

Selected Conversion Factors      Post 1
Selected References         Replies 1 to 26
[Note that for convenience reference posts are grouped by the first letter of the lead author's name so that all 'A' lead authors are in Reply 1 and all 'Z' lead authors are in Reply 26.]

Selected Conversion Factors
I provide some useful information for converting ice mass loss (and/or freshwater fluxes) both into flow rates and into eustatic sea level rise:

One Sverdrup (Sv) is 106 m3 s-1, which is ~ 3 x 104 Gt year-1 = 30,000Gt/yr
1 Gt of water = 1 cubic km of water
1Tt of water = 1,000 cubic km of water
100 Gt of ice mass loss ~ 0.28mm of Eustatic SLR
1 Gt = 1 gigatonne = the mass of 1.091 cubic km of ice

To convert the change in Earth heat inventory (EHI) in ZJ (1 ZJ = 1021 J) accumulated over a time period X in years into Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI, in W/m2) use the following for formula (where 5.10 x 1014 m2 is the surface area of the Earth):

EHI (J x 1021) / X (years) / 5.10 x 1014 (m2) / 3.15576 x 107 (seconds/year) = EEI
or EHI in ZJ / (16.094376)(X in years) = EEI in W/m2

Also, I provide the following useful information regarding GHG units (click on the attached image):
 

Next, see the MCDS-BN (Maximum Credible Domino Scenario – Domino Effect Analysis using Bayesian Networks) thread for introductory remarks and the MCDS-FT (Maximum Credible Domino Scenario -Domino Fault Tree Analysis) thread for discussion of MCDS probabilities of occurrence relevant to the following MCDS references.

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Selected MCDS References

The following references are listed by lead author and then by year of publication, and when I feel that the reference may be hard to find, I provide a hyperlink:

Abbott, T.H. and Timothy W. Cronin (01 Jan 2021), "Aerosol invigoration of atmospheric convection through increases in humidity", Science, Vol. 371, Issue 6524, pp. 83-85, DOI: 10.1126/science.abc5181

Aguiar, W., Meissner, K.J., Montenegro, A. et al. Magnitude of the 8.2 ka event freshwater forcing based on stable isotope modelling and comparison to future Greenland melting. Sci Rep 11, 5473 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84709-5

Alley, K.E. et al. (2021), "Two decades of dynamic change and progressive destabilization on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf", The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-76

Alley, K., Ted A. Scambos, Richard B. Alley and Nicholas Holschuh (09 Oct 2019), "Troughs developed in ice-stream shear margins precondition ice shelves for ocean-driven breakup", Science Advances, Vol. 5, no. 10, eaax2215, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax2215

Alley, R.B., D. Pollard, B.R. Parizek, S. Anandakrishnan, M. Pourpoint, N.T. Stevens, J.A. MacGregor, K. Christianson, A. Muto and N. Holschuh. 2019. Possible role for tectonics in the evolving stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet. J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surface, 124, doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004714.

Alley, R.B., S. Anandakrishnan. K. Christianson, H.J. Horgan, A. Muto, B.R. Parizek, D. Pollard and R.T. Walker. 2015. Oceanic forcing of ice-sheet retreat: West Antarctica and more. Ann. Rev. Earth Plan. Sci., 43, 7.1-7.25.

An, L., Rignot, E., Wood, M., Willis, J., Mouginot, J., and Khan, S. (2020). The tale of two ice shelves: Zachariae Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, Northeast Greenland, Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.7280/D19987.

Applegate, P.J.; Parizek, Byron R.; Nicholas, Robert E.; Alley, Richard B.; Keller, Klaus (2015), "Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale", Climate Dynamics, 45(7-8), 2001–2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2451-7.

Armitage, T.W.K., Manucharyan, G.E., Petty, A.A., Thompson, A.F., Kwok, R., Enhanced eddy activity in the Beaufort Gyre in response to sea ice loss. Nat Commun 11, 761 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14449-z.

Auger, M., Morrow, R., Kestenare, E. et al. Southern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability. Nat Commun 12, 514 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20781-1

Austermann, J., D. Pollard, J.X. Mitrovica, R. Moucha, A.M. Forte, R.M. DeConto, D.B. Rowley and M.E. Raymo. 2015. The impact of dynamic topography change on Antarctic Ice Sheet stability during the mid-Pliocene warm period. Geology, 43, 927-930.

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Bellomo, K., Angeloni, M., Corti, S. et al. Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response. Nat Commun 12, 3659 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w

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Boers, Niklas and Martin Rypdal (May 25, 2021), "Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point", PNAS, 118, (21), e2024192118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118

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Caesar, L., McCarthy, G.D., Thornalley, D.J.R. et al. Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium. Nat. Geosci. 14, 118–120 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z

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Catania, G.A.  et al (10 December 2019), "Future Evolution of Greenland's Marine‐Terminating Outlet Glaciers", JGR Earth Surface, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004873

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Chang, W., M. Haran, P.J. Applegate and D. Pollard. 2016. Improving ice sheet model calibration using paleoclimate and modern data. Annal. Applied Stat., 10, 4, 2274-2302.

Chester, M., Kulessa, B., Luckman, A., Bassis, J.N, & Kuipers Munneke, P., (2017), Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. Annals of Glaciology, 58(74), 60-71. doi:10.1017/aog.2017.1.

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Christ, A.J. et al (March 30, 2021), "A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century", PNAS, 118, (13), e2021442118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021442118

Clemmensen, K.E. et al. (22 March 2021), "A tipping point in carbon storage when forest expands into tundra is related to mycorrhizal recycling of nitrogen", Ecology Letters, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13735

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Cook et al. (2020), "Glacier algae accelerate melt rates on the south-western Greenland Ice Sheet", The Cryosphere, 14(1):309-330, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-309-2020.

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Cruz, J.A. et al. (25 Jun 2021), "Strong links between Saharan dust fluxes, monsoon strength, and North Atlantic climate during the last 5000 years", Science Advances, Vol. 7, no. 26, eabe6102, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abe6102

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Dagan, G. et al. (04 November 2020), "Aerosol forcing masks and delays the formation of the North‐Atlantic warming hole by three decades", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090778

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DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., Alley, R.B. et al. The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica. Nature 593, 83–89 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0

DeConto, R., David Pollard, and Ed Gasson (2017), "Potential for future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic ice sheet", Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, EGU2017-15929,
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England, M.R., L M Polvani and L Sun (17 September 2020), "Robust Arctic warming caused by projected Antarctic sea ice loss", Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 10
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Greenbaum, J.S., Blankenship, D.D., Young, D.A., Aitken, A.R.A., Richter, T.G., Roberts, J.L., Warner, J.C., van Ommen, T.D., and Siegert, M.J. (2015). Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica. Nat. Geosci. 8, 294–298.

Greenwood, S.L. et al. (13 Jan 2021), "Exceptions to bed-controlled ice sheet flow and retreat from glaciated continental margins worldwide", Science Advances, Vol. 7, no. 3, eabb6291, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abb6291

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Haine, T. W. N. (09 November 2020), "Arctic Ocean Freshening Linked to Anthropogenic Climate Change: All Hands on Deck", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090678

Hankel, C. and Eli Tziperman (2021), "The Role of Atmospheric Feedbacks in Abrupt Winter Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Future Warming Scenarios", Journal of Climate, Page(s): 4435–4447, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0558.1

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