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Author Topic: Maximum Credible Domino Scenario (MCDS) – References & Conversion Factors  (Read 204 times)

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MAXIMUM CREDIBLE DOMINO SCENARIO (MCDS) – References & Conversion Factors

This MCDS-REF thread provides the related Maximum Credible Domino Scenario (MCDS, which can be thought of as a 'Perfect Storm' scenario) references and selected related conversion factors.

Table of Contents

Selected Conversion Factors      Post 1
Selected References         Replies 1 to 26
[Note that for convenience reference posts are grouped by the first letter of the lead author's name so that all 'A' lead authors are in Reply 1 and all 'Z' lead authors are in Reply 26.]

Selected Conversion Factors
I provide some useful information for converting ice mass loss (and/or freshwater fluxes) both into flow rates and into eustatic sea level rise:

One Sverdrup (Sv) is 106 m3 s-1, which is ~ 3 x 104 Gt year-1 = 30,000Gt/yr
1 Gt of water = 1 cubic km of water
1Tt of water = 1,000 cubic km of water
100 Gt of ice mass loss ~ 0.28mm of Eustatic SLR
1 Gt = 1 gigatonne = the mass of 1.091 cubic km of ice

To convert the change in Earth heat inventory (EHI) in ZJ (1 ZJ = 1021 J) accumulated over a time period X in years into Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI, in W/m2) use the following for formula (where 5.10 x 1014 m2 is the surface area of the Earth):

EHI (J x 1021) / X (years) / 5.10 x 1014 (m2) / 3.15576 x 107 (seconds/year) = EEI
or EHI in ZJ / (16.094376)(X in years) = EEI in W/m2

Also, I provide the following useful information regarding GHG units (click on the attached image):
 

Next, see the MCDS-BN (Maximum Credible Domino Scenario – Domino Effect Analysis using Bayesian Networks) thread for introductory remarks and the MCDS-FT (Maximum Credible Domino Scenario -Domino Fault Tree Analysis) thread for discussion of MCDS probabilities of occurrence relevant to the following MCDS references.
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Selected MCDS References

The following references are listed by lead author and then by year of publication, and when I feel that the reference may be hard to find, I provide a hyperlink:

Abbott, T.H. and Timothy W. Cronin (01 Jan 2021), "Aerosol invigoration of atmospheric convection through increases in humidity", Science, Vol. 371, Issue 6524, pp. 83-85, DOI: 10.1126/science.abc5181

Aguiar, W., Meissner, K.J., Montenegro, A. et al. Magnitude of the 8.2 ka event freshwater forcing based on stable isotope modelling and comparison to future Greenland melting. Sci Rep 11, 5473 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84709-5

Alley, K.E. et al. (2021), "Two decades of dynamic change and progressive destabilization on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf", The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-76

Alley, K., Ted A. Scambos, Richard B. Alley and Nicholas Holschuh (09 Oct 2019), "Troughs developed in ice-stream shear margins precondition ice shelves for ocean-driven breakup", Science Advances, Vol. 5, no. 10, eaax2215, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax2215

Alley, R.B., D. Pollard, B.R. Parizek, S. Anandakrishnan, M. Pourpoint, N.T. Stevens, J.A. MacGregor, K. Christianson, A. Muto and N. Holschuh. 2019. Possible role for tectonics in the evolving stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet. J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surface, 124, doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004714.

Alley, R.B., S. Anandakrishnan. K. Christianson, H.J. Horgan, A. Muto, B.R. Parizek, D. Pollard and R.T. Walker. 2015. Oceanic forcing of ice-sheet retreat: West Antarctica and more. Ann. Rev. Earth Plan. Sci., 43, 7.1-7.25.

An, L., Rignot, E., Wood, M., Willis, J., Mouginot, J., and Khan, S. (2020). The tale of two ice shelves: Zachariae Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, Northeast Greenland, Dryad, Dataset, https://doi.org/10.7280/D19987.

Applegate, P.J.; Parizek, Byron R.; Nicholas, Robert E.; Alley, Richard B.; Keller, Klaus (2015), "Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale", Climate Dynamics, 45(7-8), 2001–2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2451-7.

Armitage, T.W.K., Manucharyan, G.E., Petty, A.A., Thompson, A.F., Kwok, R., Enhanced eddy activity in the Beaufort Gyre in response to sea ice loss. Nat Commun 11, 761 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14449-z.

Auger, M., Morrow, R., Kestenare, E. et al. Southern Ocean in-situ temperature trends over 25 years emerge from interannual variability. Nat Commun 12, 514 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20781-1

Austermann, J., D. Pollard, J.X. Mitrovica, R. Moucha, A.M. Forte, R.M. DeConto, D.B. Rowley and M.E. Raymo. 2015. The impact of dynamic topography change on Antarctic Ice Sheet stability during the mid-Pliocene warm period. Geology, 43, 927-930.
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Bassis, J.N., et al. (18 Jun 2021), "Transition to marine ice cliff instability controlled by ice thickness gradients and velocity", Science, Vol. 372, Issue 6548, pp. 1342-1344, DOI: 10.1126/science.abf6271

Bassis, J.N., S.V. Petersen, L Mac Cathles, (2017), Heinrich events triggered by ocean forcing and modulated by isostatic adjustment, Nature, 332–334, doi:10.1038/nature21069

Bassis, J.N., and Jacobs,S., (2013), "Diverse calving patterns linked to glacier geometry", Nature Geoscience, 6, 833–836, doi:10.1038/ngeo1887.

Bassis, J. N., & C. C. Walker (23 November 2011), "Upper and lower limits on the stability of calving glaciers from the yield strength envelope of ice", Proceedings of the Royal Society Lon. A 468, 913–931, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2011.0422

Bastviken, D., L.J. Tranvik, J.A. Downing, P.M. Crill and A.E. Enrich-Prast in "Freshwater Methane Emissions offset the Continental Carbon Sink", Science 7 January 2011 Vol. 331 no. 6013, p. 50, doi: 10.1126/science.1196808

Bellomo, K., Angeloni, M., Corti, S. et al. Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response. Nat Commun 12, 3659 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w

Bevan, S. L., Luckman, A. J., Benn, D. I., Adusumilli, S., and Crawford, A.: Brief Communication: Thwaites Glacier cavity evolution, The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-66, in review, 2021.

Bintanja R. and Olivier Andry (2017), “Towards a rain-dominated Arctic”, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 19, EGU2017-4402
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Bjordal, J., Storelvmo, T., Alterskjær, K. et al. Equilibrium climate sensitivity above 5 °C plausible due to state-dependent cloud feedback. Nat. Geosci. 13, 718–721 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00649-1.

Blackburn, T., Edwards, G.H., Tulaczyk, S. et al. Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial. Nature 583, 554–559 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2484-5.

Boers, Niklas and Martin Rypdal (May 25, 2021), "Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point", PNAS, 118, (21), e2024192118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118

Boers, N. et al. (November 20, 2018), "Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles", PNAS, 115, (47), E11005-E11014; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802573115

Bourdin, S., L. Kluft and B. Stevens (06 April 2021), "Dependence of Climate Sensitivity on the Given Distribution of Relative Humidity", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092462

Bradshaw, C.D., Langebroek, P.M., Lear, C.H. et al. Hydrological impact of Middle Miocene Antarctic ice-free areas coupled to deep ocean temperatures. Nat. Geosci. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00745-w

Bronselaer, B. et al. (2018) Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater, Nature, doi:s41586-018-0712-z.

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Burke, E., Yu Zhang and Gerhard Krinner (2020), "Evaluating permafrost physics in the CMIP6 models and their sensitivity to climate change" The Cryosphere Discussions, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-309

Burke, K. D. et al. (December 26, 2018), Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates", PNAS, 115 (52) 13288-13293; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809600115
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Caesar, L., McCarthy, G.D., Thornalley, D.J.R. et al. Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium. Nat. Geosci. 14, 118–120 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z

Caesar et al. (April 12, 2018) "Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation", Nature, Vol 556, http://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5.

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Catania, G.A.  et al (10 December 2019), "Future Evolution of Greenland's Marine‐Terminating Outlet Glaciers", JGR Earth Surface, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004873

Chang, P. et al. (18 November 2020), "An Unprecedented Set of High‐Resolution Earth System Simulations for Understanding Multiscale Interactions in Climate Variability and Change", JAMES, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002298

Chang, W., M. Haran, P.J. Applegate and D. Pollard. 2016. Calibrating an ice sheet model using high-dimensional binary spatial data. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 111, 57-72.

Chang, W., M. Haran, P.J. Applegate and D. Pollard. 2016. Improving ice sheet model calibration using paleoclimate and modern data. Annal. Applied Stat., 10, 4, 2274-2302.

Chester, M., Kulessa, B., Luckman, A., Bassis, J.N, & Kuipers Munneke, P., (2017), Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. Annals of Glaciology, 58(74), 60-71. doi:10.1017/aog.2017.1.

Chiang, J. (30 May 2009), "The Tropics in Paleoclimate", Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 37:263-297, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100217

Choi, Y., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Wood, M. (2017). Modeling the response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden and Zachariae Isstrøm glaciers, Greenland, to ocean forcing over the next century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 11071–11079.

Christ, A.J. et al (March 30, 2021), "A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century", PNAS, 118, (13), e2021442118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021442118

Clemmensen, K.E. et al. (22 March 2021), "A tipping point in carbon storage when forest expands into tundra is related to mycorrhizal recycling of nitrogen", Ecology Letters, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13735

Coletti, A. J., DeConto, R. M., Brigham-Grette, J., and Melles, M.: A GCM comparison of Pleistocene super-interglacial periods in relation to Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Arctic Russia, Clim. Past, 11, 979-989, doi:10.5194/cp-11-979-2015, 2015.

Cook et al. (2020), "Glacier algae accelerate melt rates on the south-western Greenland Ice Sheet", The Cryosphere, 14(1):309-330, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-309-2020.

Corrick, E.C. et al. (21 Aug 2020), "Synchronous timing of abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period", Science, Vol. 369, Issue 6506, pp. 963-969, DOI: 10.1126/science.aay5538

Creese, A., Washington, R. & Jones, R. Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season. Clim Dyn 53, 3583–3602 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04728-x.

Cruz, J.A. et al. (25 Jun 2021), "Strong links between Saharan dust fluxes, monsoon strength, and North Atlantic climate during the last 5000 years", Science Advances, Vol. 7, no. 26, eabe6102, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abe6102
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Dagan, G. et al. (04 November 2020), "Aerosol forcing masks and delays the formation of the North‐Atlantic warming hole by three decades", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090778

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DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., Alley, R.B. et al. The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica. Nature 593, 83–89 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0

DeConto, R., David Pollard, and Ed Gasson (2017), "Potential for future sea-level contributions from the Antarctic ice sheet", Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, EGU2017-15929,
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DeConto, R.M. and D. Pollard. 2016. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature, 531, 591-597.

Deb, P., A. Orr, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, J. Turner, and J. S. Hosking, 2018: Summer drivers of atmospheric variability affecting ice shelf thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. Geophy. Res. Lett., 45. doi: 10.1029/2018GL077092.

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England, M.R., L M Polvani and L Sun (17 September 2020), "Robust Arctic warming caused by projected Antarctic sea ice loss", Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 10
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Galeotti, S., R. DeConto, T. Naish, P. Stocchi, F. Florindo, M. Pagani, P. Barrett, S.M. Bohaty, L. Lanci, D. Pollard, S. Sandroni, F. Talarico and J.C. Zachos. 2016. Antarctic Ice Sheet variability across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary climate transition. Science, 352, 76-80.

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Gomez, N., D. Pollard and D. Holland. 2015. Sea level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss. Nature Commun., 6, 8798, doi:10.1038/ ncomms9798.

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Greenbaum, J.S., Blankenship, D.D., Young, D.A., Aitken, A.R.A., Richter, T.G., Roberts, J.L., Warner, J.C., van Ommen, T.D., and Siegert, M.J. (2015). Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica. Nat. Geosci. 8, 294–298.

Greenwood, S.L. et al. (13 Jan 2021), "Exceptions to bed-controlled ice sheet flow and retreat from glaciated continental margins worldwide", Science Advances, Vol. 7, no. 3, eabb6291, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abb6291

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Haine, T. W. N. (09 November 2020), "Arctic Ocean Freshening Linked to Anthropogenic Climate Change: All Hands on Deck", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090678

Hankel, C. and Eli Tziperman (2021), "The Role of Atmospheric Feedbacks in Abrupt Winter Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Future Warming Scenarios", Journal of Climate, Page(s): 4435–4447, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0558.1

Hansen, J. (October 26, 2017), "Scientific Reticence: a DRAFT Discussion" and "Scientific Reticence and the Fate of Humanity"
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Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, B. Tormey, B. Donovan, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. LeGrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2016: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016.

Hansen, J., M. Sato, G. Russell, and P. Kharecha, 2013: Climate sensitivity, sea level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371, 20120294, doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294.
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Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann (2011), "Earth’s energy imbalance and implications", Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13421–13449, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011

Haran, M., W. Chang, K. Keller, R. Nicholas and D. Pollard. 2017. Statistics and the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Chance, 30:4, 37-44.

Harries, D. and Terence J. O’Kane (29 March 2021), "Dynamic Bayesian networks for evaluation of Granger causal relationships in climate reanalyses", JAMES, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002442

Hassan, T., Allen, R. J., Liu, W., and Randles, C. A.: Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the associated mechanisms in CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5821–5846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5821-2021, 2021.

Haumann, F.A., Nicolas Gruber and Matthias Münnich (06 May 2020), "Sea‐Ice Induced Southern Ocean Subsurface Warming and Surface Cooling in a Warming Climate", AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019AV000132

Hay, C.C. et al. (2017), "Sea Level Fingerprints in a Region of Complex Earth Structure: The Case of WAIS", J. Climate, 30 (6): 1881–1892, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0388.1

He, X.-C. et al. (05 Feb 2021), "Role of iodine oxoacids in atmospheric aerosol nucleation", Science, Vol. 371, Issue 6529, pp. 589-595, DOI: 10.1126/science.abe0298

Helanow, C. et al. (14 May 2021), "A slip law for hard-bedded glaciers derived from observed bed topography", Science Advances, Vol. 7, no. 20, eabe7798, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abe7798

Hellmer, H.H., Frank Kaukera, Ralph Timmermann, and Tore Hattermann (2017), "The Fate of the Southern Weddell Sea Continental Shelf in a Warming Climate", Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0420.1

Hellmer, H.H., Kauker F, Timmermann R, Determann J, Rae J. (2012), "Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current", Nature, 485 (7397):225-8, doi: 10.1038/nature11064.

Hofer, S., Lang, C., Amory, C. et al. Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6. Nat Commun 11, 6289 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8.

Holder L. et al. (09 December 2020), "Controls Since the mid‐Pleistocene Transition on Sedimentation and Primary Productivity Downslope of Totten Glacier, East Antarctica", Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA003981

Holzworth, R.H., et al. (22 March 2021), "Lightning in the Arctic", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091366

Hopcroft, P.O., Paul J. Valdes and William Ingram (16 February 2021), "Using the mid‐Holocene ’greening’ of the Sahara to narrow acceptable ranges on climate model parameters", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092043

Hopcroft, P.O. et al. (September 22, 2020), "Polar amplification of Pliocene climate by elevated trace gas radiative forcing", PNAS, 117 (38) 23401-23407, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002320117

Hu, A. et al. (17 April 2020), "Role of AMOC in transient climate response to greenhouse gas forcing in two coupled models", Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1027.1

Huang, H. and Yi Huang (26 March 2021), "Nonlinear coupling between longwave radiative climate feedbacks", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033995

Hubau, W.et al. (2020), "Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests", Nature, volume 579, pages80–87, doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0
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Jahn, A. and Rory Laiho (27 July 2020), "Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21st Century", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088854

Jenkins, A. et al. (2018), "West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability", Nature Geoscience, volume 11, pages733–738, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0207-4

Jeong, S., Ian M. Howat & Jeremy N. Bassis (28 November 2016), "Accelerated ice shelf rifting and retreat at Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071360.

Jia, H., Ma, X., Yu, F. et al. Significant underestimation of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions derived from satellite-based methods. Nat Commun 12, 3649 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23888-1

Jiménez, S., Duddu, R., and Bassis, J.N., (2017), An updated-Lagrangian damage mechanics formulation for modeling the creeping flow and fracture of ice sheets. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 313, 406-432.

Jordan, T. A., Porter, D., Tinto, K., Millan, R., Muto, A., Hogan, K., Larter, R. D., Graham, A. G. C., and Paden, J. D.: New gravity-derived bathymetry for the Thwaites, Crosson and Dotson ice shelves revealing two ice shelf populations, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-294, in review, 2020.

Joughin, I. et al. (11 Jun 2021), "Ice-shelf retreat drives recent Pine Island Glacier speedup", Science Advances, Vol. 7, no. 24, eabg3080, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg3080

Joughin, I., et al (2020): "A decade of variability on Jakobshavn Isbræ: ocean temperatures pace speed through influence on mélange rigidity", The Cryosphere, 14, 211–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-211-2020.

Jüling, A., Zhang, X., Castellana, D., von der Heydt, A. S., and Dijkstra, H. A.: The Atlantic's freshwater budget under climate change in the Community Earth System Model with strongly eddying oceans, Ocean Sci., 17, 729–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-729-2021, 2021.
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Katavouta, A. and Williams, R. G.: Ocean carbon cycle feedbacks in CMIP6 models: contributions from different basins, Biogeosciences, 18, 3189–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3189-2021, 2021.

Khakzad, N. et al. (09 June 2012), "Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks", Risk Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01854.x

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Klockmann, M. et al. (2020), "Coupling of the Subpolar Gyre and the Overturning Circulation During Abrupt Glacial Climate Transitions", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090361

Koenig, S.J., A.M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E.J. Stone, D.J. Hill, R.M. DeConto, A. A be-Ouchi, D.J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage and R. van de W al. 2015. Ice sheet model dependency of the simulated Greenland Ice Sheet in the mid-Pliocene. Clim. Past, 11, 369-381.

Konrad, H., I. Sasgen, D. Pollard and V. Klemann. 2015. Potential of the solid-Earth response for limiting long-term West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in a warming climate. Earth Plan. Sci. Lett., 432, 254-264.

Kopec, B. G., Akers, P. D., Klein, E. S., and Welker, J. M.: Significant water vapor fluxes from the Greenland Ice Sheet detected through water vapor isotopic (δ18O, δD, deuterium excess) measurements, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-276, in review, 2020.

Kopp, R.E., R.M. DeConto, D.A. Bader, C.C. Hay, R.M. Horton, S. Kulp, M. Oppenheimer, D. Pollard and B.H. Strauss. 2017. Evolving understanding of Antarctic ice-sheet physics and ambiguity in probabilistic sea-level projections. Earth's Future, 5, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000663.

Kramer, R.J. et al. (25 March 2021", "Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091585

Kroeger, M.E., Meredith, L.K., Meyer, K.M. et al. Rainforest-to-pasture conversion stimulates soil methanogenesis across the Brazilian Amazon. ISME J (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41396-020-00804-x.

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Lai, C., Kingslake, J., Wearing, M.G. et al. Vulnerability of Antarctica’s ice shelves to meltwater-driven fracture. Nature 584, 574–578 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2627-8.

Langenbrunner, B. The pattern effect and climate sensitivity. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 977 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00946-y

Lasslop, G. et al (2020), "Future fires in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6)" and EGU 2020 presentation.

Lawrence, J., Marjolijn Haasnoot & Robert Lempert (21 APRIL 2020), "Climate change: making decisions in the face of deep uncertainty", Nature (Correspondence), 580, 456, doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-01147-5

Le Bars, D., Sybren Drijfhout and Hylke de Vries (3 April 2017), "A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss", Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Number 4 , https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512.

Lee, B. S., Murali Haran, Robert Fuller, David Pollard, Klaus Keller (24 March 2019), "A Fast Particle-Based Approach for Calibrating a 3-D Model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet", arXiv:1903.10032v1

Lhermitte, S. et al. (October 6, 2020), "Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment", PNAS,  117 (40) 24735-24741; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117

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Levy, R.H., D.M. Harwood, F. Florindo, R. DeConto, H. von Eynatten, C. Fielding, B. Field, E. Gasson, N. Golledge, G. Kuhn, R. McKay, T. Naish, M. Olney, D. Pollard, F. Sangiorgi, S. Schouten, S. Warny, V. Willimott, and SMS Science Team. 2016. Antarctic Ice Sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations during the early to mid-Miocene. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 113, 3453-3458.

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Li, G., Cheng, L., Zhu, J. et al. Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00918-2

Lilien, D.A., Joughin, I., Smith, B., and Shean, D.E. (2018). Changes in flow of Crosson and Dotson ice shelves, West Antarctica, in response to elevated melt. Cryosphere 12, 1145–1431.

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Loeb, N.G. et al. (15 June 2021), "Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth's Heating Rate", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093047

Lohmann, J., Castellana, D., Ditlevsen, P. D., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Abrupt climate change as rate-dependent cascading tipping point, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-7, in review, 2021.

Lohmann, J. and P.D. Ditlevsen (March 2, 2021), "Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt", PNAS, 118, (9), e2017989118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2017989118

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Lyu, K. Xuebin Zhang; John A. Church and Quran Wu (2020), "Processes Responsible for the Southern Hemisphere Ocean Heat Uptake and Redistribution under Anthropogenic Warming", J. Climate, 33 (9): 3787–3807, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0478.1
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Ma, X. et al. (06 Nov 2020), "Dependence of regional ocean heat uptake on anthropogenic warming scenarios", Science Advances, Vol. 6, no. 45, eabc0303, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0303.

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Mackie, A., Helen E. Brindley and Paul I. Palmer (22 March 2021), "Contrasting observed atmospheric responses to tropical SST warming patterns", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033564

Mackie, S., Inga J. Smith; Jeff K. Ridley; David P. Stevens and Patricia J. Langhorne (2020), "Climate response to increasing Antarctic iceberg and ice shelf melt, J. Climate 1–70; https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0881.1

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Martens, J. et al. (16 Oct 2020), "Remobilization of dormant carbon from Siberian-Arctic permafrost during three past warming events", Science Advances, Vol. 6, no. 42, eabb6546, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abb6546

Martínez‐Moreno, J. et al. (10 September 2019), "Kinetic Energy of Eddy‐Like Features From Sea Surface Altimetry", JAMES, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001769

Martos, Y. M., Manuel Catalan, Tom A. Jordan, Alexander Golynsky, Dmitry Golynsky, Graeme Eagles & David G. Vaughan (6 November 2017), "Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL075609.

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McClymont, E. L., Ford, H. L., Ho, S. L., Tindall, J. C., Haywood, A. M., Alonso-Garcia, M., Bailey, I., Berke, M. A., Littler, K., Patterson, M. O., Petrick, B., Peterse, F., Ravelo, A. C., Risebrobakken, B., De Schepper, S., Swann, G. E. A., Thirumalai, K., Tierney, J. E., van der Weijst, C., White, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Baatsen, M. L. J., Brady, E. C., Chan, W.-L., Chandan, D., Feng, R., Guo, C., von der Heydt, A. S., Hunter, S., Li, X., Lohmann, G., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Stepanek, C., and Zhang, Z.: Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from  ∼ 3 million years ago, Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020.
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McKay, R.M. Albot, Olga B; Dunbar, Gavin B; Lee, Jae Il; Lee, Min Kyung; Yoo, Kyu-Cheul; Kim, S; Turton, Nikita A; Levy, Richard H (2020): Ice rafted debris proxies for sediment cores RS15-LC42, RS15-LC48, IODP Site 318-U1361 and ODP Site 118-1165. PANGAEA, https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.920653

Meccia, V.L., Iovino, D. & Bellucci, A. North Atlantic gyre circulation in PRIMAVERA models. Clim Dyn (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05686-zMeehl, G.A. et al. (24 Jun 2020), "Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models", Science Advances, Vol. 6, no. 26, eaba1981, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aba1981

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Menounos, B. et al (10 Nov 2017), "Cordilleran Ice Sheet mass loss preceded climate reversals near the Pleistocene Termination", Science, Vol. 358, Issue 6364, pp. 781-784, DOI: 10.1126/science.aan3001

Milillo, P., Rignot, E., Rizzoli, P., Scheuchl, B., Bueso-Bello, J., and PratsIraola, P. (2019). Heterogeneous retreat and ice melt of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. Sci. Adv. 5, eaau3433, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3433.

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Murray, B. J., Carslaw, K. S., and Field, P. R.: Opinion: Cloud-phase climate feedback and the importance of ice-nucleating particles, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 665–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-665-2021, 2021.

Murphy, L. N., M. Goes and A. C. Clement (09 November 2017), "The Role of African Dust in Atlantic Climate During Heinrich Events", Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017PA003150

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National Research Council (2013). Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises (National Academies Press).

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Odériz, I., R. Silva, T.R. Mortlock, N. Mori, T. Shimura, A. Webb, R. Padilla-Hernandez, S. Villers (20 May 2021), "Natural Variability and Warming Signals in Global Ocean Wave Climates", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093622

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Rowan T. Sutton (2018), "ESD Ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks", Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1155–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018.

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Sallée, JB., Pellichero, V., Akhoudas, C. et al. Summertime increases in upper-ocean stratification and mixed-layer depth. Nature 591, 592–598 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03303-x

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Sampaio, G. et al (2020), "CO2 fertilization effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon", Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-386.

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Smith et. al. (2017), "Connected subglacial lake drainage beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica", The Cryosphere, 11, 451–467, doi:10.5194/tc-11-451-2017.

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Sutton, R.T. (2018), "ESD Ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks", Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1155–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018

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Ultee, L. and J. N. Bassis, (2017), A plastic network approach to model calving glacier advance and retreat. Frontiers in Earth Science 5. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00024.
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Vaughan, D.G., David K. A. Barnes, Peter T. Fretwell & Robert G. Bingham (07 October 2011), "Potential seaways across West Antarctica", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GC003688

Vignon, E. et al. (27 March 2021), "Present and Future of Rainfall in Antarctica", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092281

Volker H. Strass et al (2020), "Multidecadal Warming and Density Loss in the Deep Weddell Sea, Antarctica", J. Climate, 33 (22): 9863–9881, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0271.1.

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“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Wåhlin, A.K., et al. (09 Apr 2021), "Pathways and modification of warm water flowing beneath Thwaites Ice Shelf, West Antarctica", Science Advances, Vol. 7, no. 15, eabd7254, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd7254

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Weijer W. et al. (24 May 2020), "CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086075

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Westerhold, T. et al. (11 Sep 2020), "An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years", Science, Vol. 369, Issue 6509, pp. 1383-1387, DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6853.

Wild, C. T., Alley, K. E., Muto, A., Truffer, M., Scambos, T. A., and Pettit, E. C.: Weakening of the pinning point buttressing Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-130, in review, 2021.

Wood, M. et al. (01 Jan 2021), "Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland", Science Advances, Vol. 7, no. 1, eaba7282, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aba7282

Wood T. et al (23 December 2020), "Role of sea surface temperature patterns for the Southern Hemisphere jet stream response to CO2 forcing", Environmental Research Letters, Volume 16, Number 1, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abce27.

Wu, S., Lembke-Jene, L., Lamy, F. et al. Orbital- and millennial-scale Antarctic Circumpolar Current variability in Drake Passage over the past 140,000 years. Nat Commun 12, 3948 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24264-9

Wunderling, N., Donges, J. F., Kurths, J., and Winkelmann, R.: Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021.

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Xia, Y., Hu, Y., Liu, J. et al. Stratospheric Ozone-induced Cloud Radiative Effects on Antarctic Sea Ice. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 37, 505–514 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8251-6

Xie, S.-P. (03 March 2020), "Ocean Warming Pattern Effect On Global And Regional Climate Change", AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019AV000130
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Yamazaki, K.,  Shigeru Aoki, Keishi Shimada, Taiyo Kobayashi and Yujiro Kitade (07 July 2020), "Structure of the Subpolar Gyre in the Australian-Antarctic Basin Derived From Argo Floats", JGR Oceans, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015406

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https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abf7ef/pdf
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Zanowski, H., Alexandra Jahn and Marika M. Holland (20 March 2021), "Arctic Ocean freshwater in CMIP6 Ensembles: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export", Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016930

Zarakas, C.M. et al. (2020), "Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models", J. Climate, 33, (19), 8561–8578, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0078.1

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Zhou, C., Zelinka, M.D., Dessler, A.E. et al. Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x

Zhu, C., Liu, Z. Weakening Atlantic overturning circulation causes South Atlantic salinity pile-up. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0897-7

Zhu, J. and Poulsen, C. J.: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate forcing and ocean dynamical feedback and their implications for estimating climate sensitivity, Clim. Past, 17, 253–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-253-2021, 2021.

Zhu J. and Christopher J. Poulsen (02 September 2020), "On the increase of climate sensitivity and cloud feedback with warming in the Community Atmosphere Models", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089143.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson