Greenland 2021-22 SMB, melting and GRACE mass

[gerontocrat]

6 September Data

Precipitation  About average

Melt down from 5.6% to 4.33%, average for this day of the year.

SMB increased by 0.8GT below the average daily SMB gain for this time of year.
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Of interest is that although overall SMB increases, SMB loss continues on the coastal regions of the southern half of Greenland.
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Up to 5 Sept data can be found at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3285.msg321066.html#msg321066

[Stephan]

At the southern tip of Grønland the melting season is far from over.
Here is the actual forecast for Narsarsuaq from Sep 08-Sep 21, 2021

[gerontocrat]

8 September Data

As Stephan has pointed out, melt and SMB loss continue on the coastal regions of southern Greenland.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Climate change -

a hurricane image on the Greenland thread.
Apart from wind and rain, how much warmth will it bring?

[FrostKing70]

CNN is reporting Larry will bring feet of snow, should be interesting to see the SMB after it passes through!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/10/weather/hurricane-larry-forecast-weekend-snow-greenland/index.html

"Widespread totals of 12 to 18 inches are expected in the eastern half of the island nation. Higher elevations along the east coast could get 2 to 4 feet or higher."

[gerontocrat]

Post-tropical storm Larry should hit SE Greenland late Saturday and all day Sunday.
May be quite an event.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/111437.shtml?
Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Forecast Discussion

Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021

Satellite images indicate that Larry has completed its transition to
a post-tropical cyclone with most of the deep convection dissipating
near the low-level center and frontal features developing.  In
addition, the low- and mid-level centers are now well separated,
and the cyclone appears a little weaker.  The initial intensity is
estimated to be 60 kt.  The post-tropical system is very large and
gale-force winds and high seas extend far from the center. It is
interesting to note that up to just several hours ago Larry had
maintained an inner core and a fairly tropical appearance despite
being at very high latitudes and over quite cold water.  Larry is
racing northeastward, with the initial motion estimated to be 030/42
kt. The storm is expected to merge with another large extratropical
low tonight or early Sunday.

[gerontocrat]

Larry is dumping stuff on Greenland as I write this.

So here are some images for yesterday - i.e before Larry. Tomorrow will be data for during Larry, and Tuesday for after Larry.

[The Walrus]

It will be quite interesting to see the impacts.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/winter-weather/atlantic-hurricane-season-2021-larry-winter-storm-forecast-snow-greenland-mk/

[RoxTheGeologist]

CNN is reporting Larry will bring feet of snow, should be interesting to see the SMB after it passes through!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/10/weather/hurricane-larry-forecast-weekend-snow-greenland/index.html

"Widespread totals of 12 to 18 inches are expected in the eastern half of the island nation. Higher elevations along the east coast could get 2 to 4 feet or higher."

A nice insulating blanket to trap in all the summer heat!

[FrostKing70]

20 Gigatonnes from one storm?  Hard to wrap my mind around that forecast!

"As Larry continues northward, it will evolve into a potent snowmaker. The GFS model is calling for Larry to dump around 20 gigatonnes of snow in three days across southeast Greenland. That would be roughly 3% of a typical year’s worth of snow for the entire Greenland ice sheet, based on 1981-2010 data."

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/09/peak-tropics-two-noteworthy-landfalls-and-four-other-areas-to-watch/

[NotaDenier]

https://www.mtpr.org/2021-09-12/greenland-pummeled-by-snow-one-month-after-its-summit-saw-rain-for-the-first-time

Just a month after rainfall was recorded for the first time ever at Greenland's highest point, the island is expecting up to four feet of snow from the remnants of Hurricane Larry — the rare tropical storm to stay intact so far north.

Hurricane-force gusts topped 100 miles per hour at Kulusuk Airport near Greenland's southeast coast. At Tasiilaq, the largest town in the region, sustained winds reached 55 miles per hour, with gusts of over 90.

The snow reached blizzard conditions at Summit Camp, a weather station at the island's highest point more than 10,000 feet above sea level, with winds and snow so heavy that visibility was minimal.

[gerontocrat]

Larry certainly did a dump on Greenland yesterday - a 9.6 GT SMB gain for the day.

And Larry hasn't finished yet ( see last image)

[gerontocrat]

ps:

Larry even made a blip on Nico Sun's Snow Cover Extent graph and anomaly map

[gerontocrat]

Larry did another dump on Greenland yesterday - a 7.7 GT SMB gain for the day following the previous day's 9.6 GT SMB gain.

And Larry hasn't finished yet ( see last image)

And in later days probably more lows coming from the South up the Greenland Sea.

[gerontocrat]

Larry did a final dump on Greenland yesterday - a 3.4 GT SMB gain for the day following the previous days' 7.7 GT  & 9.6 GT SMB gains, i.e. 20.7 GT SMB gain over the 3 days.

And in days to come probably more lows coming from the South up the Greenland Sea.

[gerontocrat]

Since Larry went away, things have quietened down. The legacy of Larry is above average SMB gain to date, especially on the coastal regions of the East.

[gerontocrat]

Nothing much to report.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 3 October

Since Larry roared by last month it has been very quiet, not much precipitation and very little melt.

As a result both melt and accumulated SMB since September 1 are below the average of the last 4 years. However, note that accumulated SMB in the southern half of Greenland coastal areas show a strong negative anomaly.

This below average activity I would guess has much to do with a strong high over Greenalnd for much of this period, which looks like persisting.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

October 8 data

The lack of actvity is  - intense

This is the first day this year that melt on this day is recorded by DMI as 0.000%.
In the last two days precipitation has been so low that sublimation has resulted in (very small) SMB losses.

Indeed, since Larrry departed in mid-September you could almost say that Greenland is now in drought conditions , with SMB gains this 2021-22 year now 20GT, 25%, below the previous 4 years average despite the massive precipitation from the remains of Larry.

The accumulated SMB anomaly for this year so far shows an ever increasing negative SMB anomaly ove much of the southerm third of Greenland.

The strong Greenland high that is blocking Atlantic weather systems looks like persisting at least for a few days more.

[Phil.]

Any effect of Sam there, was supposed to arrive about now?

[gerontocrat]

Any effect of Sam there, was supposed to arrive about now?

Nope - NHC reckoned Sam would just wind down and "poof" end of.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at October 18

Still very quiet on the Greenland Front - with the Greenland High still pretty strong.
Melt mainly at zero.
Cumulative SMB at 80GT is 25 GT below the 2017-21 average.

Some signs of the Greenland High weakening in the next week that might allow some wet weather mainly from the South.

[gerontocrat]

Some graphs.

The first is GIS mass loss from GRACE+GRACE-FO processed by the JPL and posted on PO-DACC.
Data is to mid-August 2021.

The second graph combines GIS mass loss with Greenland SMB data from DMI. The Graph assumes that the difference between SMB gain/loss and GIS mass gain/loss must be mass change from glacial calving and melting of marine-terminating glaciers. The graph starts in Ocrober 18 when monthly data from GRACE resumed on a regular basis and DMI put online daily SMB data.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at November 2

Somewhat average SMB gains in the last 2 weeks.
Melt mainly at zero.
Cumulative SMB at 113GT is 27 GT below the 2017-21 average.

Note the North South divide of SMB anomalies.
Might have a small melt event in SW coastal Greenland on this day (Wednesday)

click images to enlarge

[FrostKing70]

"Greenland ice sheet experiences record loss to calving of glaciers and ocean melt over the past year"

"Greenland has had a quite a year. For the first time in its history, rain fell at its summit. In August, it experienced one of the latest-occurring melt events in recent memory. This also became the third year with major melting events in the past decade.

By the end of the melt season, the ice sheet lost more ice than it gained — for the 25th year in a row."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/11/23/greenland-ice-melt-2021-recap/

[Darvince]

Wow! Really large and remarkable for late November...

[gerontocrat]

http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

SMB & melt as at Dec 19

Accumulated Surface Mass Balance from Sept 1 (i.e. snowfall) very much average. The SE coastal region shows a significantly below average snowfall (i.e. -ve anomaly).

A melt event occurred in late November. 

SMB and Ice sheet mass to mid-October 21

JPL has provided GRACE-FO ice sheet mass data to mid-October 21.

Accumulated SMB gain in the 12 months Octobe 20 to October 21 was 380 GT (DMI data)
Overall ice sheet mass loss in the same 12 month period was 250GT (JPL data)

Arithmetic says that mass loss from glacial calving + melting of marine-terminating glaciers was in the same 12 month period was  630 GT (balancing figure).

[gerontocrat]

http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/greenland

The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences @ Helmholtz Centre Potsdam is a partner with the JPL in the GRACE-FO (& the original GRACE project). After a long gap they are again providing data by basins, so far to mid-September 2021.

The only problem is that the basin boundaries used are slightly different from those by Rignot et al used by many other institutions. ( see map attached )

The graphs show that mass loss continues to be concentrated in the West - especially the SW, although all basins now show mass loss. Unfortunately, GFZ do not give the area of each basin, so mass loss by km2 cannot be calculated.

[gerontocrat]

SMB as at 8th Jan

Somewhat average

[gerontocrat]

Grace-FO data to November 21 produced by JPL.

Two graphs attached

Greenland Mass Loss from 2002. No surprises.

Greenland Mass Loss combined with SMB gain/loss and calculated glacial calving and melting since October 2018. To note is that glacial calving and melting of marine-terminating glaciers continues for 12 months of the year.

[gerontocrat]

More data from GRACE-FO on GIS -  ice sheet mass change by individual basins to November 21.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

More data from GRACE-FO on  -  ice sheet mass change in total, by region and by individual basins to December 21.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JPL have issued GRACE-FO data to Jan 22.

I combine it with Greenland SMB data to show Ice Sheet Mass loss/gain, SMB loss/gain, and from that derive mass loss from glacial calving and ocean melt of marine-terminating glaciers. I attach that graph.

I also attach graphs of Greenland SMB and surface melt according to the DMI year of Sept to August.

No major incidents to report.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

A little bit of surface melt in the 1st week of April

SMB (i.e. snowfall) this year a bit more that the previous 4 year average

[gerontocrat]

April 18th

measurable melt on the southeast coastal fringe in the last few days.

SMB pretty average

[Stephan]

Spring will be starting soon at the southern tip of Grønland.
Weather forecast for Narsarsuaq (Apr 23 - May 06, 2022).

[gerontocrat]

Data to April 29

Warmth has arrived to the coastal fringe of Southern Greenland - but nothing spectacular. (See 1st image)
Accumulated snowfall continues at around or a bit above average ( 2nd image)

The 3rd image combines GRACE-FO Greenland Mass data and DMI SMB data from which is derived an estimate of mass loss from calving and melt of ocean-terminating glaciers. It shows that this mass loss continues through winter.

the 4th image is Greenland Mass Loss from 2002 to mid-Jan 2022

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data to May 16 2022

The very ordinary SMB and melt season continues.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data to 21 May 22

A measurable SMB loss on this day of 0.3 GT.

Melt gets into 2nd gear in the last few days at around 4% of Greenland total area

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 27 May

SMB gains low in the last few days
SMB total gain looking very average

Melt stuck in 2nd gear

[gerontocrat]

Data as at May 29

SMB gains high in the last 2 days
Melt up a gear but below average for time of year

GFS Greenland temperatures today and Tuesday might keep melting up.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 1 June

SMB annual gain approaches maximum.

Melt in the last 4 days reaches 3rd gear (just)

[gerontocrat]

Data to 8 June

SMB gains slowing

Daily melt a bit below average in the last few days

[gerontocrat]

Data to 10 June

SMB gains slowing

Daily melt a bit more below average in the last few days

[gerontocrat]

Data to 16 June

Daily SMB gains continue beyond average date.
Cumulative SMB gain above recent and long-term average

Daily melt continues below average for the last week or two.

[gerontocrat]

Data to 18 June

On this day an event.

SMB daily gain very high - over 6GT. This included RAIN in coastal SE SOUTH WEST Greenland.
Cumulative SMB gain now 590GT, around 10 GT above the long-term average, and nearly 40GT above the last 4 years average.

Daily Melt spiked up to 22% of the Greenland land area, partly due to rainfall?

Maybe a similar pattern today and Monday

daily melt gif attached, click to start then click maximise for full-size, runs 5 times (speed set low for oldies like me)
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

19 June

SMB gains continue while melt remains high. Rain in the coastal SW

[gerontocrat]

20 June

Small increase in SMB

Another strong melt day, but it looks to me like Greenland is going to be chilly from now.

[gerontocrat]

Data to 23 June

SMB increases - but slower. Looks like maximum happening later than average and well above average.

Melt still quite high - but will it switch up a gear?

click images to enlarge and start gif.

[FrostKing70]

Wow, is that 50 GT greater than the average?