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KiwiGriff

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Hurricane Season 2022
« on: January 13, 2022, 10:07:15 AM »
Hurricane Season 2022

Should really be Hurricane, Typhoon, Tropical Cyclones 2022. 

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone
Quote
A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and/or squalls. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by different names, including hurricane (/ˈhʌrɪkən, -keɪn/), typhoon (/taɪˈfuːn/), tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, or simply cyclone. A hurricane is a strong tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean or northeastern Pacific Ocean, and a typhoon occurs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean; in the Indian Ocean, south Pacific, or (rarely) South Atlantic, comparable storms are referred to simply as "tropical cyclones", and such storms in the Indian Ocean can also be called "severe cyclonic storms".

"Tropical" refers to the geographical origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively over tropical seas. "Cyclone" refers to their winds moving in a circle, whirling round their central clear eye, with their winds blowing counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. The opposite direction of circulation is due to the Coriolis effect. Tropical cyclones typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. They derive their energy through the evaporation of water from the ocean surface, which ultimately condenses into clouds and rain when moist air rises and cools to saturation. This energy source differs from that of mid-latitude cyclonic storms, such as nor'easters and European windstorms, which are fueled primarily by horizontal temperature contrasts. Tropical cyclones are typically between 100 and 2,000 km (60 and 1,240 mi) in diameter. Every year tropical cyclones impact various regions of the globe including the Gulf Coast of North America, Australia, India and Bangladesh.

As far as I can tell it's always been the Hurricane Season thread where discussion, comment and links  about  such storm are undertaken  on this blog . Who am I to change such a convention ?   :D
« Last Edit: January 13, 2022, 11:00:40 AM by KiwiGriff »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2022, 10:08:46 PM »
Very strong winds will be a major factor making this nor’easter a significant winter storm for the U.S. mid-Atlantic and New England. Heavy snow and some flooding expected. A ‘bomb cyclone’ is possible.
Learn about the Nor’easter Benchmark below.
Quote
Gary Szatkowski
Waiting here as the NWS snowfall forecasts going out 72 hours start to come in. Don't have a good graphic to post yet, but see Boston coming in at 12+ inches. Will have some numbers to discuss in the next hour or two.
1/26/22, 3:06 PM. https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/1486430471064014850
Warnings map at the link

Quote
NWS Weather Prediction Center @NWSWPC‬⁩
Confidence is increasing that a coastal storm will bring significant winter impacts to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, including the I-95 major metro areas, Friday through the weekend. Heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding are all possible. Stay tuned!
1/25/22, 2:47 PM. ➡️ https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1486063212453838849
 Graphic w/ maps at the link.
 
—-
Quote
Gary Szatkowski
Yeah, the NAM this morning is looking pretty jacked up. May need a Snickers bar.
1/26/22, 10:43 AM. https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/1486364160317349890

Enough signal that we may have a big storm this weekend to start posting a little more information. This experimental product shows the probability that a location gets Winter Storm Warning criteria snow amounts. Use this more for track info vs. total snowfall amounts.
1/26/22, 10:41 AM. ➡️ https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/1486363733148459013
Map.
 
Looking at Coastal flooding, I'd say minor is likely and moderate is possible, but the error bars on this one are still very large. Below is forecast tool from Stevens Institute. Forecast for Lewes, DE. Gray shading is error range. High tide to watch is Saturday morning.
1/26/22, 10:56 AM ➡️ https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/1486367397195956237
Lewes, Delaware tide level forecast

—-
Quote
Geoff Bansen @WeatherGeoff‬⁩
For those of you that don't live in the Northeast, the "benchmark" we refer to during winter storm setups is the 70/40 latitude/longitude intersection. We tend to receive the max amount of snow from lows that track over it. A little west or east of that can make a big difference!
1/26/22, 10:34 AM. https://twitter.com/weathergeoff/status/1486361863055376387
⬇️ 3 maps: offshore Lows
 
—-
Delicious?
Quote
Eric Fisher
That coupled jet signature is pretty chef's kiss
Should promote explosive development Friday night into Saturday. Just a question of exact track
1/25/22, 1:35 PM. https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1486045019890982920
⬇️ Jet stream map
« Last Edit: January 26, 2022, 10:22:00 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2022, 04:25:38 PM »
U.S. Nor’easter models
Quote
y'all ⁦‪@FrenchToastAlrt‬⁩ just went to five slices 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
it's on, Boston
universalhub.com/french-toast
1/27/22, 6:00 PM. https://twitter.com/currently/status/1486836600801792000
 ‬⁩
Quote
The 00Z NAM has taken all this week's pent up East Coast Snow Weenie Angst and funneled it into driving one model run.
1/27/22, 9:29 PM. https://twitter.com/wxmanms1/status/1486889060111159296

10 inches = 0.25 m
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2022, 03:07:06 PM »
GFS says something like another nor'easter in a few days time
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2022, 08:43:09 PM »
For the record: yesterday’s U.S. Nor’easter hit close to, if not equaling, hurricane strength.

Quote
When looking at 00 and 12Z WPC analysis, there’s been a 26 mb pressure drop within a span of 12 HOURS. This officially satisfies “bombogenesis” criteria.
(The low is continuing to rapidly intensify as we speak 😲)
1/29/22, 9:37 AM. https://twitter.com/tfortier_wx/status/1487434731386019848

Quote
82 mph gust on Cape Cod. This #blizzard is just hitting its stride.
1/29/22, 10:46 AM. https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1487452176473546752

Quote
🌊 We can't forget about the coastal flooding right now, as if the blinding snow wasn't enough at the shore.
Thankfully, we're only in minor stage. 6 inches (150mm) of water on the usual roads, it'll be gone by 7AM or so.
1/29/22, 6:09 AM. https://twitter.com/acpressmartucci/status/1487382417941876742
 
Quote
SOUND UP: It’s high tide in #Plymouth, and the waves are crashing on the windows of the beachfront Pilgrim Sands Hotel. Warren Ave. out front is flooded and closed to traffic
1/29/22, 8:27 AM. https://twitter.com/juliannelimatv/status/1487417118526164995
15 sec. Waves on windows!

Quote
NWS Mount Holly (SE Pennsylvania/ New Jersey / Delaware)
We have confirmed that at least coastal portions of the area experienced a blizzard last night and this morning. Analysis for inland areas and to determine more exact timing and duration information will take more time to conduct. #NJwx #DEwx
1/29/22, 11:26 AM. https://twitter.com/nws_mountholly/status/1487462094962249736

Biggest snow totals top 30 inches [760mm] after nor'easter hammers East Coast
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/01/30/biggest-snow-totals-top-30-inches-after-noreaster-hammers-East-Coast/7921643563446/

EDIT:
Nor'easter bomb cyclone: Thousands lose power in a deep freeze after a bomb cyclone dumps record-setting snow
Much of the Northeast is suffering sub-zero [-18°C] wind chills
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/30/weather/noreaster-bomb-cyclone-storm-sunday/index.html
« Last Edit: January 31, 2022, 01:33:27 AM by Sigmetnow »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2022, 08:55:12 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1487070461049520128?s=20

Above average Atlantic ocean temperatures likely gave a boost to the blizzard 🎚️

A warmer-than-average Gulf Stream supplied abundant moisture + sensible & latent heat fluxes, increasing latent heat release & enhancing bomb cyclone development



https://www.axios.com/historic-bomb-cyclone-blizzard-hits-new-england-8764785b-472a-43e4-a036-7452927ed623.html

Many of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast's biggest snowstorms on record have occurred since 2000, in line with climate change-related trends toward more frequent and severe heavy precipitation events.

Before Saturday, five of Boston‘s top 10 snowstorms had occurred since 2003, and eight of its top 10 since 1978.

In New York City, seven of its top nine biggest snowstorms have occurred since 1996, with six of them since 2003. Three of its top five have occurred since 2006.
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2022, 06:23:39 AM »
Should really be Hurricane, Typhoon, Tropical Cyclones 2022.
Currently it is more like Extratropical Cyclones 2022.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2022, 07:08:24 AM »
Intense tropical cyclone Batsirai is approaching Madagascar. Source.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2022, 01:12:08 PM »
Batsirai, 1 km per pixel.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2022, 02:35:08 AM »
Prepping for "Category 6" Hurricanes, Using a New Wind Tunnel
https://www.axios.com/category-6-hurricane-simulator-nsf-211a2da3-1f63-4753-ac66-3b60f8fa3c01.html

The U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) recently awarded about $13 million over four years to Florida International University's (FIU) Extreme Events Institute to support the design of what is essentially a "Category 6" storm simulator.

The grant will allow FIU to create a testing facility capable of producing winds of up to 200 mph, complete with a water basin to simulate storm surge and wave activity.

https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2131961

https://eei.fiu.edu/

Currently, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale goes from Category 1 through 5, maxing out when a storm’s top sustained winds go above 155 mph. Yet many storms have intensified so significantly that they might as well be called Category 6 storms, though the broad meteorological community has not rallied around a push to add another number.

In fact, the Saffir-Simpson Scale itself is flawed for other reasons, too, since it does not capture the water dangers of such storms, only the winds.

Hurricane Patricia in 2015 clocked maximum sustained winds of an incredible 215 mph, making it the most intense storm on record in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic Ocean basins. Hurricane Dorian, which struck the Bahamas in 2019, tied the record for the strongest Atlantic hurricane at the time of landfall, with peak winds of 185 mph when it hit the Bahamas.

--------------------------------------------



Wall of Wind

--------------------------------------------

The new facility at FIU, which will be more heavily outfitted than an ordinary wind tunnel, will be built with the participation of other colleges, including Colorado State University and the Georgia Institute of Technology, along with a private company, AeroLab.

It is designed to be a component of a broader initiative from the NSF to address the threats posed by natural hazards, and allow specialists from different fields to study the combined effects of extreme wind and water hazards on built infrastructure.

According to NSF, existing wind tunnels, computer models and other tools cannot fully capture the failures in infrastructure, from bridges to homes to energy facilities, that are observed during extreme weather events.

Research up to this point has not been done in an integrated manner, bringing multiple types of experts together in one place to examine the hazards.

“Climate change is fueling more intense and more dangerous storms, and cutting-edge research and testing capabilities are clearly needed to meet the nation’s evolving risks,” said Richard S. Olson, director of FIU’s Extreme Events Institute, in a statement. Olson said that within the institute, the new project is being referred to as the “Category 6 project.”
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2022, 05:36:14 PM »
Future Hurricanes Likely to Pose Much Greater Flood Risk to US East and Gulf Coasts
https://phys.org/news/2022-02-future-hurricanes-pose-greater-east.html

Extreme flooding events spawned by hurricanes are likely to become far more frequent along the Eastern and Southern U.S. coastlines because of a combination of sea level rise and storm intensification. The findings, contained in new research from Princeton University, show that the two sources of water can produce what researchers call compound flooding events, with impact much worse than those from surge or rainfall alone.

The study, in the journal Nature Climate Change, is among the first to assess how climate change could impact the frequency of extreme rainfall-surge events. The researchers hope the findings will help better inform policymakers as well as bolster overall preparedness for the severe storms to come.

... Using physics-based climate and hurricane hazard models and statistical analyses, the new study projects a dramatic rise in how often joint 100-year events—that is, events with a 1% chance to happen in any given year for both rainfall and storm surge in the historical period—will occur by the year 2100.

Along the Gulf of Mexico, extreme rainfall-surge events have historically occurred on average every 200-500 years. But by the end of the 21st century, according to the study's findings, these extreme events may occur on average every 10-30 years. The outlook is even direr in New England, where extreme joint events are rare in the historical climate, happening on average less than once in a thousand years. However, by the end of the century, these calamitous events may occur on average once every five years.

... The analysis enabled the researchers to gauge the relative contributions of sea level rise and storm changes—effects that have both been well-documented over the last decade—to the joint rainfall-surge hazards. Sea level rise has long been thought of as a primary driver of more frequent floods, given the dramatic increase over the last thirty years of around 0.13 inches per year. For the eastern seaboard of the U.S., though, the new study implicates increasing storm intensity and slowing translation speeds as the main reasons why joint extreme rainfall-surge events look set to spike. "It's a surprising finding that says we should not neglect changes in storm climatology, with enhanced rainfall projected to play a bigger and bigger role in driving compound flooding," said Lin.



Joint rainfall–surge hazard in the current and future period and largest driver of joint hazard change

Ning Lin, Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard, Nature Climate Change (2022).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01272-7
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2022, 02:52:56 PM »
Batsirai just before landfall. It still retains power of a major hurricane.

Tor Bejnar

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Alumril

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2022, 01:56:56 AM »
I've always been told that Atlantic hurricanes are on a multi decadal cycle, with a peak around the 1930s and another in the 2000s.

And I do see that for hurricanes and major hurricanes, but the numbers for tropical storms don't appear to have got the message.

Could this just be due to pre-satellite storms being missed?
I always thought the climate change narrative was stronger storms, not more storms.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2022, 03:42:38 AM »
I've always been told that Atlantic hurricanes are on a multi decadal cycle, with a peak around the 1930s and another in the 2000s.

And I do see that for hurricanes and major hurricanes, but the numbers for tropical storms don't appear to have got the message.

Could this just be due to pre-satellite storms being missed?
I always thought the climate change narrative was stronger storms, not more storms.

Quite likely.  Prior to satellites, only those storms that made landfall or were encountered in the shipping lanes were recorded.  Many of the "fish storms" went unnoticed. 

The climate change narrative keeps changing with regards to these type of storms.  I am not sure there is that much of an agreement among the experts.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2022, 05:58:07 AM »
Since the dawn of the satellite era about 1960 we have a reasonably accurate  data set for tropical cyclones in the atlantic ocean .
Increasing wind share ( sic)  is proposed to limit cyclone development as the globe warms.
Those that do develop will have more ocean heat to work with so have the potential to reach higher energy levels .
Also due to warming oceans storms will retain their warm core structure into higher latitudes.
 
« Last Edit: February 09, 2022, 08:52:41 AM by KiwiGriff »
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kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2022, 02:41:19 PM »
Madagascar hit by second storm as Cyclone Batsirai displaces thousands and destroys critical crops

Cyclone Batsirai, which hit Madagascar this weekend, has killed at least 20 people, displaced 55,000 and destroyed crops that were close to being harvested.

...

Di Sirio added that the destruction of rice crops – that were about two weeks away from harvesting – had made a bad situation worse and would be felt for six months. Fruit and vegetable patches had also been destroyed.

"This means major losses in terms of food security for the population," she said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/madagascar-hit-second-storm-cyclone-batsirai-displaces-thousands/
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2022, 07:22:48 PM »
New Zealand is on the trajectory of a tropical cyclone.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2022, 10:30:52 PM »
New Zealand is on the trajectory of a tropical cyclone.

Residents of Wellington will need to wear their Wellies.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2022, 04:23:44 PM »
Tropical cyclone Dovi is possibly the strongest of this South Pacific season.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2022, 12:57:54 PM »
Since January 20, Madagascar already had two deadly storms, third cyclone is located inland right now, fourth is expected in 6 days.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2022, 11:59:02 PM »
19 Named Storms Expected This Hurricane Season, Above Average But Becoming More Common, CSU Forecast Says
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/04/07/weather/april-hurricane-season-outlook-above-average/index.html

After two consecutive years of exhausting the hurricane name list, forecasters are predicting 19 named storms this hurricane season, five more than normal.

Of the 19 storms, nine are expected to become hurricanes, and four are expected to become major hurricanes -- Category 3 or higher -- with winds exceeding 111 miles per hour, according to hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/

This year's forecast looks eerily similar to predictions for the past two years.

The new hurricane season is shaping up to be just as, if not slightly more, active than last year's, which was the third most active season on record.

"The team predicts that 2022 hurricane activity will be about 130 percent of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2021's hurricane activity was about 120 percent of the average season," the report stated.

... The primary factor contributing to an overactive season in the Atlantic is "the likely absence of El Niño," according to the hurricane researchers at CSU.

La Niña presents favorable conditions for hurricanes in contrast to that of El Niño. Hurricane seasons under El Niño conditions are known for upper-level wind patterns across the Caribbean that tear hurricanes apart as they try to form, making the seasons less active.

The report added, "the warmer Caribbean and eastern part of the subtropical Atlantic also favor an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season."



... Warmer water and air can supercharge rainfall rates, making it more likely a landfalling hurricane will lead to disastrous flooding. Sea level rise has also increased storm surge damage.

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline is 71%, well above the average of 52% for the past century, according to the report.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2022, 03:24:21 PM »
A caveat from Jeff Masters

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/04/forecasters-predict-above-average-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/

Quote
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no “skill,” or even negative skill when computed using the Mean Square Skill Score (Figure 3). A negative skill means that a forecast simply using climatology would do better. April forecasts must deal with the so-called “spring predictability barrier.” In April, the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions will be in place for the coming hurricane season.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #23 on: April 08, 2022, 05:17:32 PM »
A caveat from Jeff Masters

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/04/forecasters-predict-above-average-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season/

Quote
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no “skill,” or even negative skill when computed using the Mean Square Skill Score (Figure 3). A negative skill means that a forecast simply using climatology would do better. April forecasts must deal with the so-called “spring predictability barrier.” In April, the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions will be in place for the coming hurricane season.

Here are the CSU April predictions and actual occurrences for hurricanes since the 2005 year (which caught everyone by surprise):

Year     Predicted     Actual     Off (actual to predicted)
2006        9                5        -44%
2007        9                6        -33%
2008        8                8           0
2009        6                3        -50%
2010        8              12       +50%
2011        9                7        -22%
2012        4              10     +150%
2013        9                2        -78%
2014        3                4       +33%
2015        3                2        -33%
2016        6                6            0
2017        4                8      +100%
2018        7                5         -29%
2019        5                7        +40%
2020        8              12        +50%
2021        8                8            0

In summary, over the past 16 years, they have been off by 50% or more 6 times.  5 times they were off by 33%-50%.  Twice they were off less than 33%, and were right on three times.

I chose their hurricane predictions, because it was closest to the actual.  The two lowest years (2014 & 15) they were very close; predicted 3 each year, and there were 2 and 4.  The next two lowest years (2012 & 2017) were far off; predicting 4 each year when there were actually 8 and 10.  They were quite good in the years they predicted 8; being spot on twice out of four years.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html#list_2000s

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #24 on: April 08, 2022, 06:35:08 PM »
Looking at recent Atlantic hurricane seasons, it's almost like the season predicts the El-nino rather than the reverse.
2009 and 2014 are the only years where we had less than 10 storms in the last two decades.
And the El-nino did not start until JJA/SON seasons respectively.
And the 2014 El-nino was huge, continuing well into 2016, but tropical storm activity increased
2014  8ts 6h
2015 11ts 4h
2016 15ts 7h
2017 17ts 10h
Then there was a milder El-nino starting in ASO 2018
2018 15ts 8h
2019 18ts 6h
2020 30ts 13h
2021 21ts 7h

I think this could imply we are due a new El-nino later this year and therefore a reduced tropical storm count. My guess would be a year like 2018.


KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2022, 04:28:55 AM »
Looks like NZ is getting a late season ex tropical cyclone.
Note the decreasing pressure. This system has forecast potential to undergo  explosive cyclogenesis over the next two days. 
 (24 sin φ/ sin 60°)mb in 24 hours
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explosive_cyclogenesis
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neal

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #26 on: April 10, 2022, 06:11:06 PM »
Looks like NZ is getting a late season ex tropical cyclone.


Wow, more flooding again!

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #27 on: April 25, 2022, 05:24:39 PM »
A recent paper on Atlantic Hurricanes  is not good news, though it avoids a discussion of the future.

Lots of technical stuff in the paper which is OPEN ACCESS

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/471/2022/
Extreme Atlantic hurricane seasons made twice as likely by ocean warming
Quote
[/b]Abstract
Tropical cyclones are among the most damaging extreme weather events. An increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has been observed, but attribution to global warming remains challenging due to large inter-annual variability and modeling challenges.

Here we show that the increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity since the 1980s can be robustly ascribed to variations in atmospheric circulation as well as sea surface temperature (SST) increase. Based on a novel weather-pattern-based statistical model, we find that the forced warming trend in Atlantic SSTs over the 1982–2020 period has doubled the probability of extremely active tropical cyclone seasons. For the year 2020, our results suggest that such an exceptionally intense season might have been made twice as likely by ocean surface warming.

In our statistical model, seasonal atmospheric circulation remains the dominant factor explaining the inter-annual variability and the occurrence of very active seasons. However, our study underscores the importance of rising SSTs that lead to more extreme outcomes in terms of cyclone intensity for the same seasonal atmospheric patterns. Our findings provide a new perspective on the contribution of ocean warming to the increase in recent hurricane activity and illustrate how anthropogenic climate change has contributed to a decisive increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone season activity over the observational period.
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #28 on: April 26, 2022, 02:46:01 AM »
They did add a qualifier that their analysis could not exclude tropopause layer cooling dominating over SSTs.  While ocean warming has been shown repeatedly to increase the potential for TC formation, TC intensity is dominated by atmospheric circulation. 

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #29 on: April 26, 2022, 10:23:44 AM »
Really? Elevated SSTs not a major driver of rapid intensification?

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #30 on: April 26, 2022, 01:53:32 PM »
Really? Elevated SSTs not a major driver of rapid intensification?

Actually, it is not.  SST increases the probability of TC formation up to about 28 C.  Studies have shown that above that threshold, atmospheric conditions are the major driver of further intensifications.  This story found “there is no significant relationship between maximum wind speed and SST above 28C.”


https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/94127.pdf

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #31 on: April 26, 2022, 10:48:02 PM »
"This story" written by researchers associated with the Heartland Institute. Reading the titles of articles by the lead author show he is a soft denier. Maybe try to find more reputable support (preferably one that has a publication date too).

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #32 on: April 27, 2022, 01:04:41 AM »
"This story" written by researchers associated with the Heartland Institute. Reading the titles of articles by the lead author show he is a soft denier. Maybe try to find more reputable support (preferably one that has a publication date too).

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/16/jcli-d-12-00433.1.xml

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/73/12/jas-d-16-0164.1.xml

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #33 on: April 27, 2022, 12:57:14 PM »
The hurricane attribution discussion is complicated. SSTs might be conductive but then wind sheer maybe is not and there are more factors going into it. Not a subject on which i expect consensus soon.

Any storms on the radar yet?
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #34 on: April 27, 2022, 01:58:40 PM »
A recent paper on Atlantic Hurricanes  is not good news, though it avoids a discussion of the future.

Really interesting, I need to take some time to go through in detail.
One thing that jumps out to me is they appear to have constrained to the strict Atlantic hurricane season. So crazy years like 2005 don't stand out as much.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #35 on: April 27, 2022, 03:32:05 PM »
The research suggests that an increase in SST results in a long term trend upwards in frequency and severity while the season to season variation is still dominated by atmospheric conditions for that particular season. This makes complete sense. It is not unlike exepriencing an increasing global average temperature while season to season temperatures fluctuate around this increasing average temperature.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #36 on: April 27, 2022, 07:06:20 PM »
"This story" written by researchers associated with the Heartland Institute. Reading the titles of articles by the lead author show he is a soft denier. Maybe try to find more reputable support (preferably one that has a publication date too).

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/16/jcli-d-12-00433.1.xml

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/73/12/jas-d-16-0164.1.xml
Thanks. Not sure why you posted this to support the claim that SSTs don't affect rapid intensification, but the second link has this to say:
Quote
An empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic has been developed based on the best-track TC data and the observed SST during 1988–2014. Similar to the empirical relationship between SST and the maximum potential intensity of TCs previously documented, results from this study show a nonlinear increasing trend of the MPIR with increasing SST, with a more rapid increasing trend when SST is higher than 27°C. 

...

Moreover, a TC tended to have a larger intensification rate when it was located in regions with higher SST and lower vertical wind shear (VWS). This indicates that although the MPIR–SST relationship is much stronger than that for the IR rate versus SST for most TCs, the actual intensification rate of a TC is determined by not only the SST but also other environmental effects, such as VWS.
So, almost obviously, SSTs do affect hurricane intensity and especially rapid intensification.
But in addition, I note you are using outdated sources that rely on data up to 2010/2014, meanwhile the last few years have seen lots of hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification, with notable and devastating examples being Harvey, Irma and then Maria in 2017, Michael in 2018, Dorian in 2019, and basically half the 2020 hurricane season. I am sure up to date sources will have more to say on this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/hurricane-season-rapid-intensification/

Quote
Slew of rapidly intensifying hurricanes portends trouble in a warming world

Ten storms rapidly intensified this Atlantic season, some to a record degree

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #37 on: April 27, 2022, 08:21:32 PM »
"This story" written by researchers associated with the Heartland Institute. Reading the titles of articles by the lead author show he is a soft denier. Maybe try to find more reputable support (preferably one that has a publication date too).

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/16/jcli-d-12-00433.1.xml

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/73/12/jas-d-16-0164.1.xml
Thanks. Not sure why you posted this to support the claim that SSTs don't affect rapid intensification, but the second link has this to say:
Quote
An empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic has been developed based on the best-track TC data and the observed SST during 1988–2014. Similar to the empirical relationship between SST and the maximum potential intensity of TCs previously documented, results from this study show a nonlinear increasing trend of the MPIR with increasing SST, with a more rapid increasing trend when SST is higher than 27°C.

...

Moreover, a TC tended to have a larger intensification rate when it was located in regions with higher SST and lower vertical wind shear (VWS). This indicates that although the MPIR–SST relationship is much stronger than that for the IR rate versus SST for most TCs, the actual intensification rate of a TC is determined by not only the SST but also other environmental effects, such as VWS.
So, almost obviously, SSTs do affect hurricane intensity and especially rapid intensification.
But in addition, I note you are using outdated sources that rely on data up to 2010/2014, meanwhile the last few years have seen lots of hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification, with notable and devastating examples being Harvey, Irma and then Maria in 2017, Michael in 2018, Dorian in 2019, and basically half the 2020 hurricane season. I am sure up to date sources will have more to say on this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/hurricane-season-rapid-intensification/

Quote
Slew of rapidly intensifying hurricanes portends trouble in a warming world

Ten storms rapidly intensified this Atlantic season, some to a record degree

The link also mentions the decreasing trend at SST higher than 29C as shown in Figure 2.  It is entirely possible that the rate of intensification increases, while the maximum decreases, as these are two different properties.  We may be talking past each other.

Not sure why you linked to a "story" in a newspaper article.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #38 on: April 27, 2022, 11:12:50 PM »
Climate Change Will More Than Double the Risk of Intense Tropical Cyclones by 2050
https://phys.org/news/2022-04-climate-intense-tropical-cyclones.html

Human-caused climate change will make strong tropical cyclones twice as frequent by the middle of the century, putting large parts of the world at risk, according to a new study published in Science Advances. The analysis also projects that maximum wind speeds associated with these cyclones could increase around 20%.

The team's analysis found that the frequency of the most intense cyclones, those from Category 3 or higher, will double globally due to climate change, while weaker tropical cyclones and tropical storms will become less common in most of the world's regions. The exception to this will be the Bay of Bengal, where the researchers found a decrease in the frequency of intense cyclones

Many of the most at risk locations will be in low-income countries. Countries where tropical cyclones are relatively rare today will see an increased risk in the coming years, including Cambodia, Laos, Mozambique and many Pacific Island Nations, such as the Solomon Islands and Tonga. Globally, Asia will see the largest increase in the number of people exposed to tropical cyclones, with additional millions exposed in China, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam.

Besides the overall projected increase in TC intensity, the STORM-C datasets also show a robust increase in the frequency of intense (category 4 and category 5) TCs, with results ranging between 0.5 and 219% across the different regions.

Nadia Bloemendaal, A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk, Science Advances (2022).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm8438



Relative and absolute frequency of different TC categories (tropical storm, category 1 to category 5) for 10,000 years of baseline climate STORM-B data and 10,000 years of future-climate STORM-C data for each of the four GCMs



Change in 10-min 10-m average maximum wind speed between STORM-B and the ensemble median of the STORM-C datasets



Empirically derived RPs of of maximum 10-min 10-m average wind speeds within a radius of 100 km for a selection of 18 coastal cities.

--------------------------------------------

The STORM-C datasets show a future poleward expansion of the location of maximum intensity in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the Western Pacific and the North Atlantic (fig. S1). This poleward shift is driven by an increase in SSTs at higher latitudes, supporting TC tracks further northward, and is consistent with previous studies (31, 32).

31 J. P. Kossin, K. A. Emanuel, G. A. Vecchi, The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature 509, 349–352 (2014).

32 J. P. Kossin, K. A. Emanuel, S. J. Camargo, Past and projected changes in Western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure. J. Climate 29, 5725–5739 (2016).
« Last Edit: April 27, 2022, 11:23:39 PM by vox_mundi »
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #39 on: April 28, 2022, 12:25:01 AM »
This is from NOAA showing the history of Atlantic hurricanes over the past 140 years.  While there is a definitive increase in the past half century, long term it looks more like seasonal variability.  The Power Dissipation Index (DPI) showed strong correlation with SST from 1975 - 2005, but not since, and only marginally prior.

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #40 on: April 28, 2022, 07:33:35 AM »
Mr walrus is again making bullshite claims

Quote
Actually, it is not.  SST increases the probability of TC formation up to about 28 C.  Studies have shown that above that threshold, atmospheric conditions are the major driver of further intensifications.  This story found “there is no significant relationship between maximum wind speed and SST above 28C.”

Abstract
Quote
A statistical model for the intensity of the strongest hurricanes has been developed and a new methodology introduced for estimating the sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to changes in sea surface temperature. Here, the authors use this methodology on observed hurricanes and hurricanes generated from two global climate models (GCMs). Hurricanes over the North Atlantic Ocean during the period 1981–2010 show a sensitivity of 7.9 ± 1.19 m s−1 K−1 (standard error; SE) when over seas warmer than 25°C. In contrast, hurricanes over the same region and period generated from the GFDL High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) show a significantly lower sensitivity with the highest at 1.8 ± 0.42 m s−1 K−1 (SE). Similar weaker sensitivity is found using hurricanes generated from the Florida State University Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU-COAPS) model with the highest at 2.9 ± 2.64 m s−1 K−1 (SE). A statistical refinement of HiRAM-generated hurricane intensities heightens the sensitivity to a maximum of 6.9 ± 3.33 m s−1 K−1 (SE), but the increase is offset by additional uncertainty associated with the refinement. Results suggest that the caution that should be exercised when interpreting GCM scenarios of future hurricane intensity stems from the low sensitivity of limiting GCM-generated hurricane intensity to ocean temperature.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/16/jcli-d-12-00433.1.xml

Quote
An empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic has been developed based on the best-track TC data and the observed SST during 1988–2014. Similar to the empirical relationship between SST and the maximum potential intensity of TCs previously documented, results from this study show a nonlinear increasing trend of the MPIR with increasing SST, with a more rapid increasing trend when SST is higher than 27°C. Further analyses indicate that about 28% of intensifying TCs over the North Atlantic reached 50% of their MPIR and only 7% reached 80% of their MPIR at the time when they were at their lifetime maximum intensification rates. Moreover, a TC tended to have a larger intensification rate when it was located in regions with higher SST and lower vertical wind shear (VWS). This indicates that although the MPIR–SST relationship is much stronger than that for the IR rate versus SST for most TCs, the actual intensification rate of a TC is determined by not only the SST but also other environmental effects, such as VWS. Additional results from a simplified dynamical system previously developed for TC intensity prediction suggest an SST-dependent TC MPIR, similar to that fitted from observations. However, the MPIR obtained from the observational fitting seems to underestimate the MPIR in regions with low SST at higher latitudes where VWS is often large. Nevertheless, this study provides the observational evidence for the existence of the MPIR for TCs.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/73/12/jas-d-16-0164.1.xml

Mr Walruses  linked papers   merely tell us something we already know not what he is claiming.
Wind shear is also a factor in cyclone intensification.
The IPCC position is  a decline  in the number of cyclones developing due to increasing wind shear.
As well as an intensification in cyclones due to increasing energy available when conditions are favorable.

Five cat ones are an annoyance one cat five is  catastrophic .

This from the lead author of the first link .
https://journals.ametsoc.org/search?f_0=author&q_0=James+B.+Elsner
Growing Even Stronger: The Increasing Intensity of the Strongest Tropical Cyclones.


I can not follow his other  link. Heartland is a fully paid for propaganda generator  for the fossil fuel industry as are those with strong ties to Heartland.
I am disappointed Mr walrus is again posting links to such a source. It strongly supports the idea that Mr walrus is happy being misinformed by  his  preferred  reading material . 


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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #41 on: April 28, 2022, 01:45:14 PM »
Ah kiwi!  Using claims of fraud and misdirection when you cannot refute the science.  How nice.  As I pointed out previously, you are conflating the rate of intensification with maximum hurricane intensity.  I am guessing you did not bother reading past the abstract to see the following correlation as the SST increases past 28C.  I will post it for you, as it does not appear to meet your "preferred reading material."

If you read my previous post, with the data from NOAA, you would see that according to the total annual ACE Index, cyclone intensity has risen noticeably over the past 20 years.  But, relatively high levels of cyclone activity were also seen during the 1950s and 1960s.  The 2010s was not significantly different from the 1960s in terms of accumulated cyclone energy. 

While there is no denying that hurricane activity has increased since the 70s and 80s, using such data to make claims about trends is disingenuous, as it does not hold up to long-term data.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2022, 01:59:12 PM by The Walrus »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #42 on: April 28, 2022, 09:23:30 PM »
...
Five cat ones are an annoyance one cat five is  catastrophic .
...
Aw shucks!  Multiplication used to be "communicative", but it isn't anymore.   :'(
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #43 on: April 29, 2022, 10:42:00 AM »
Quote
Actually, it is not.  SST increases the probability of TC formation up to about 28 C.  Studies have shown that above that threshold, atmospheric conditions are the major driver of further intensifications.  This story found “there is no significant relationship between maximum wind speed and SST above 28C.”
Is Was the story you were pushing.
 
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1920849117
Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades
James P. Kossin Kenneth R. Knapp Timothy L. Olander, and Christopher S. Velden

Significance
Quote
Tropical cyclones (TCs), and particularly major TCs, pose substantial risk to many regions around the globe. Identifying changes in this risk and determining causal factors for the changes is a critical element for taking steps toward adaptation. Theory and numerical models consistently link increasing TC intensity to a warming world, but confidence in this link is compromised by difficulties in detecting significant intensity trends in observations. These difficulties are largely caused by known heterogeneities in the past instrumental records of TCs. Here we address and reduce these heterogeneities and identify significant global trends in TC intensity over the past four decades. The results should serve to increase confidence in projections of increased TC intensity under continued warming.
Abstract
Quote
Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982–2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979–2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade.

The Theoretical Behavior, Modeled Behavior and what the reliable records show is a consilience of evidence .
A Tropical Cyclone is a heat engine running on  warm surface water.
Increase the energy in the oceans   and Tropical Cyclones have the potential to increase in intensity.

Quote
If you read my previous post, with the data from NOAA, you would see that according to the total annual ACE Index, cyclone intensity has risen noticeably over the past 20 years.  But, relatively high levels of cyclone activity were also seen during the 1950s and 1960s.  The 2010s was not significantly different from the 1960s in terms of accumulated cyclone energy.
Annual Accumulated Cyclone Energy tells you nothing about cyclone intensity how energetic individual storm are. 

This is a science site. News  opinion and story's have a place here but are not authoritative in a scientific discussion.
I have known about the Heartland Institute its brand of science for hire for well over a decade.
In that time I have read many pieces released by them and  papers  published by their merry band of "scientists" .  They all have in common.  Misdirection, Outright  lies, logic fallacys.  and in the case of the science unsupportable bullshite.

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oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #44 on: April 29, 2022, 11:55:25 AM »
Thanks for stating it clearly KiwiGriff.
They also have people happy to spread these pieces around.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #45 on: April 29, 2022, 01:39:50 PM »
Accumulated cyclone energy is calculated from the maximum sustained winds of individual storms every six hours.  So yes, it tells a lot about cyclone intensity.  Most hurricane and climate agencies use it (or its partner, Power Dissipation Index) to determine the overall strength of individual storms, and summarily, the entire storm season.  Buy hey, I guess you know more than they do, so can just ignore it altogether in favor of your own favorite metric (whatever that is).

You may post all the theoretical and probabilistic quotes you like, but unless they match the real world, they remain just thought waves. I have posted hard scientific data relating cyclonic activity to sea surface temperature.  Until you can find similar research showing something to the contrary, your posts are just as you say "unsupportable bullshit."

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #46 on: April 29, 2022, 02:40:10 PM »
Some recent papers from NOAA, UKMO, and GDFL

"Recent studies suggest that the state-of-the-art climate models commonly project statistically significant reduction in the mean number of global TCs at the end of the 21st century (2, 4). In contrast, observations reveal no clear trend in the global TC number since 1980, although the nature of observed global TC number remains uncertain due to the limited length of available TC data and the substantial impact of natural internal variability on global TC activity."

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1922500117

"Our results raise the possibility that external factors, particularly anthropogenic aerosols, could be the dominant cause of historical tropical storm variability, and highlight the potential importance of future changes in aerosol emissions."

https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1854

"increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5

"Our results indicate that the recent increase in NA basin-wide MH/HU ratio or MH frequency is not part of a century-scale increase. Rather it is a rebound from a deep local minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We hypothesize that these recent increases contain a substantial, even dominant, contribution from internal climate variability, and/or late-20th century aerosol increases and subsequent decreases, in addition to any contributions from recent greenhouse gas-induced warming. It has been hypothesized, for example, that aerosol-induced reductions in surface insolation over the tropical Atlantic since between the mid-20th century and the 1980s may have resulted in an inhibition of tropical cyclone activity; the relative contributions of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, dust, and volcanic aerosols to this signal (each of which would carry distinct implications for future hurricane evolution)—along with the magnitude and impact of aerosol-mediated cloud changes—remain a vigorous topic of scientific inquiry. It has also been suggested that multi-decadal climate variations connected to changes in meridional ocean overturning may have resulted in a minimum in northward heat transport in the Atlantic and a resulting reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #47 on: April 29, 2022, 09:59:15 PM »
Some general remarks:
 
1) It would be great if we had one accurate climate model (or a rather tight bunch). I don't know if there is an accepted explanation for last centuries lower number of storms.

2) Going forward there are more problems. In general how closely will the chosen model match the conditions around 2100 if for example we would like to use it to support a claim for that time frame?
This is rather unsure since that is probably on the other side of the Blue Ocean Event and who knows what else (hence it is rather unsure if it is even something we should really worry about).
ASI loss usually involves all kinds of teleconnections but we don't know what happens at the onset of a fractional BOE.
Stratification at the equator is ahead of modelled values (iirc). Stratification in other basins will also lead to stronger warming at the sea surface. This came out of model component studies so that should be modelled.

And maybe ACE isn't always the most important factor. How did Harvey score?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #48 on: April 30, 2022, 03:24:05 AM »
I am looking for the old data by storm, but haven't located it yet.  I believe it used to be available here:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/resources.html

FK

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022
« Reply #49 on: April 30, 2022, 04:49:08 AM »
FFS
Walrus.
You posted a story claiming that hurricanes will not increase in intensity in a warming world because SST is not linked to storm intensity  .
 
The number of hurricanes that develop in, or the total expended energy of storms over a season. is not a measurement of the intensity of hurricanes that do develop. The magnitude of destruction from cyclones is not liner. 
Your propaganda technique is Misdirection. The logic error is a Non Sequitur.


I note the following from your links
Quote
We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency."
Is saying we fully expect cyclones to increase in intensity but the aerosols  we pump out from burning FF is masking the effects of the increase of greenhouse gasses.
Your other papers suggest the same.
No shite Sherlock. its actually way worse than measurement suggests . 
Most of us are already aware that aerosols mask the effect of increasing greenhouse gasses.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.