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gerontocrat

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2022 ENSO
« on: January 13, 2022, 06:03:23 PM »
Jan update from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 January 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June 2022).

In December 2021, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were consistent with a mature La Niña [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the westernmost Niño-4 region, which warmed to -0.4°C at the end of the December, the other Niño indices were between -0.9°C and -1.4°C during the last week [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened east of the Date Line [Fig. 3], reflecting the slow eastward movement of positive temperature anomalies, at depth, from the western into the central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures still dominated the eastern Pacific from ~200m to the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted near Indonesia and the western Pacific, while suppressed convection remained over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a mature La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus this month favors the continuation of La Niña through March-May 2022, with a transition to ENSO-neutral occurring in April-June 2022 (51% chance). ENSO-neutral is then expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, though chances do not exceed 57% (for May-July 2022), which is consistent with the generally lower confidence forecasts made through the spring. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Jan. 20th).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 February 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2022, 07:11:43 PM »
The longer this goes on, the more heat accumulates in the ocean, and the more will be released next El Nino.
It's going to be a wild ride when the pendulum swings back.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2022, 07:45:34 PM »
Perhaps a big change by the last 3 months of the melting season and into the next freezing season
Quote
ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 February 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July 2022).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened during January 2022, though anomalies stayed negative across most of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Most of the weekly ENSO indices remained between -0.5°C and -1.0°C in the last week, except for the Niño-4 index, which was -0.2°C [Fig. 2]. In contrast, subsurface temperatures (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) trended to near average during the month [Fig. 3]. This large change in recent weeks reflected the eastward progression of a downwelling Kelvin wave, as indicated by the extension of above-average subsurface temperatures across much of the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Below-average subsurface temperatures were confined to the eastern Pacific Ocean at the end of the month. For the monthly mean, low-level equatorial winds were near average across much of the Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific Ocean. Below-average convection strengthened near and west of the Date Line, while convection was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. Because the easterly trade winds have recently been strengthening and are predicted to continue in the near term, the forecaster consensus favors those models suggesting a slower decay of La Niña through the spring. However, ENSO-neutral is still anticipated to return by the Northern Hemisphere summer, although the chance does not exceed 57% during June-August 2022, reflecting the uncertainty associated with the spring predictability barrier. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Feb. 17th).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 March 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

vox_mundi

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2022, 10:03:25 PM »
Increasing Frequency of El Niño Events Expected by 2040
https://phys.org/news/2022-03-frequency-el-nio-events.html

Global weather fluctuations called El Niño events are likely to become more frequent by 2040, a new study shows.

El Niño—the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—affects climate, ecosystems and societies worldwide.

The study examined four possible scenarios for future carbon emissions, and found increased risk of El Niño events in all four.

Quote
... This means El Niño events and associated climate extremes are now more likely "regardless of any significant mitigation actions" to reduce emissions, the researchers warn.

... "we know from previous studies that, when measuring El Niño changes in terms of rainfall shifts in the eastern equatorial Pacific, models predict an increase in the frequency of events."

"This study shows that those changes could happen after the next two decades."

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, examines the "time of emergence" of changes in the tropical Pacific using state-of-the-art climate models.

The time of emergence is defined as when the signal of climate change emerges from the usual background noise of natural climate variability.

When looking at changes in El Niño rainfall patterns, the best estimate of the time of emergence of changes converges on 2040 in all of the four emissions scenarios considered.

Co-author Professor Mat Collins, from the University of Exeter and part of the Global Systems Institute, added that "what surprised us is that changes emerge regardless of the scenario we look at."

"Because rainfall in the tropics is associated with the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs), it is the relative changes in SST that are more important than the absolute change.

Quote
"This leads us to the rather stark conclusion that these changes are essentially unavoidable."



Jun Ying, Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific, Nature Climate Change (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01301-z
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jai mitchell

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2022, 02:35:24 AM »
Quote
Global weather fluctuations called El Niño events are likely to become more frequent by 2040, a new study shows.

El Niño—the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—affects climate, ecosystems and societies worldwide.

The study examined four possible scenarios for future carbon emissions, and found increased risk of El Niño events in all four.

see:  https://longbets.org/883/

Quote
Mitchell's Argument
Pattern effect warming has been largely absent in the historic surface temperature record. This is due to the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific Ocean surface temperatures and their associated surface wind patterns. This 'third aerosol forcing parameter' has not yet been strongly identified by climate sciences even though it has suppressed surface warming through the modern period and is only now being evidenced as SE Asia continues to reduce high temperature stack emissions of SOx. By (around) 2029 the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will exist in a nearly permanent positive state, causing much higher regional forcing and a doubling of the historic GMST decadal warming trend.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2022, 02:44:45 AM »
Current PDO index has been in cold water phase for last two years.
https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.graph

jai mitchell

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2022, 03:11:27 AM »
here is the long view.

I think that the aerosol component is obvious. 

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Bruce Steele

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2022, 03:23:26 PM »
Jai, PDO index has biological ramifications for several West Coast fisheries. Cold Water phase results in better salmonoid ocean conditions and also improves anchovy populations. Cold water phase tends to depress sardine numbers. Warm phase 1925- 1947 where huge sardine populations dominated fishies landings. 1947-1978 cold water and good salmon and anchovy numbers. 1978-1998 warm water and generally  cold water phase in the year since then ( except short 2013-2015  warm phase) 
 I have never seen anyone accurately predict PDO so predictions that it will go permanently  positive  is a surprise to me and I will remain skeptical. .

jai mitchell

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2022, 04:23:02 PM »
I have never seen anyone accurately predict PDO so predictions that it will go permanently  positive  is a surprise to me and I will remain skeptical. .

Bruce,

Are you aware of Nietzche's theory of eternal recurrence?

This is your first post here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,88.msg980.html#msg980

I thought that was interesting.

Here is a paper bout the impacts of aerosols on the PDO.  There is still a lot of uncertainty due to the multiple factors, as I said, it looks obvious to me, definitive proof, however, is more tedious.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg331613.html#msg331613
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Bruce Steele

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2022, 07:28:02 AM »
“Neitzche
What if some day or night a demon were to steal after you into your loneliest loneliness, and say to you, "This life as you now live it and have lived it, you will have to live once more and innumerable times more; and there will be nothing new in it, but every pain and every joy and every thought and sigh and everything unutterably small or great in your life will have to return to you, all in the same succession and sequence [...]
Would you not throw yourself down and gnash your teeth and curse the demon who spoke thus? Or have you once experienced a tremendous moment when you would have answered him: "You are a god and never have I heard anything more divine" [...][19] “

Jai, if I have to relive my days i can be happy I have gotten to know a few people here on the forum and will  revisit your comments and interests in another life. 
 Otherwise perhaps I am a broken record. The thought of a broken record ( a skip ) made me smile because if you never listened to an LP you wouldn’t realize how irritating a skip can be.

 

jai mitchell

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2022, 08:30:57 PM »
not as bad as when the needle rides on the outer edge  ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2022, 03:17:30 PM »
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 March 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter.


Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened during February 2022 across the central and east-central tropical Pacific, with negative anomalies stretching from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In particular, the weekly Niño-3.4 index decreased from -0.6°C at the beginning of February to -1.1°C in the last week [Fig. 2], while the other Niño SST regions were between -0.6°C and -1.3°C in the last week. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) were near zero [Fig. 3], as the recent warming associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave has attenuated. Below-average temperatures have expanded near the surface and at depth near ~150°W [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies strengthened during the past month, with the extension of enhanced low-level easterly winds across the equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remaining over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection strengthened around the Date Line, while convection was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus favors a slower decay of La Niña due to the recent renewal of ocean-atmosphere coupling, which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art climate models. For the summer and beyond, there is large uncertainty in the state of ENSO; however forecasters lean toward negative Niño-3.4 index values even if the index does not reach La Niña thresholds. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Mar. 17th).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 April 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2022 ENSO
« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2022, 07:41:02 PM »
Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 May 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:
  Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted during April across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Over the past month, the Niño index values decreased, with the latest weekly values ranging from -1.1°C to -1.5°C [Fig. 2], which are quite negative for this time of year. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) remained negative [Fig. 3], reflecting an extensive area of below-average temperatures from the surface to ~100m depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies dominated the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained significantly suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts borderline La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with increasing odds for La Niña into the fall [Fig. 6]. Similar to last month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer, but remaining below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). In the near-term, westerly wind anomalies are predicted for mid-late May which supports the weakening of below-average surface and subsurface oceanic temperatures in the coming months. However, much of the model guidance is also hinting at a re-strengthening of La Niña conditions again in the fall and upcoming winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 June 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
[/size]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)