2022 ENSO

[gerontocrat]

Jan update from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 January 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June 2022).

In December 2021, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were consistent with a mature La Niña [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the westernmost Niño-4 region, which warmed to -0.4°C at the end of the December, the other Niño indices were between -0.9°C and -1.4°C during the last week [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened east of the Date Line [Fig. 3], reflecting the slow eastward movement of positive temperature anomalies, at depth, from the western into the central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures still dominated the eastern Pacific from ~200m to the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted near Indonesia and the western Pacific, while suppressed convection remained over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a mature La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus this month favors the continuation of La Niña through March-May 2022, with a transition to ENSO-neutral occurring in April-June 2022 (51% chance). ENSO-neutral is then expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, though chances do not exceed 57% (for May-July 2022), which is consistent with the generally lower confidence forecasts made through the spring. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Jan. 20th).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 February 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Sebastian Jones]

The longer this goes on, the more heat accumulates in the ocean, and the more will be released next El Nino.
It's going to be a wild ride when the pendulum swings back.

[gerontocrat]

Perhaps a big change by the last 3 months of the melting season and into the next freezing season

ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

10 February 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July 2022).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened during January 2022, though anomalies stayed negative across most of the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Most of the weekly ENSO indices remained between -0.5°C and -1.0°C in the last week, except for the Niño-4 index, which was -0.2°C [Fig. 2]. In contrast, subsurface temperatures (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) trended to near average during the month [Fig. 3]. This large change in recent weeks reflected the eastward progression of a downwelling Kelvin wave, as indicated by the extension of above-average subsurface temperatures across much of the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Below-average subsurface temperatures were confined to the eastern Pacific Ocean at the end of the month. For the monthly mean, low-level equatorial winds were near average across much of the Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific Ocean. Below-average convection strengthened near and west of the Date Line, while convection was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. Because the easterly trade winds have recently been strengthening and are predicted to continue in the near term, the forecaster consensus favors those models suggesting a slower decay of La Niña through the spring. However, ENSO-neutral is still anticipated to return by the Northern Hemisphere summer, although the chance does not exceed 57% during June-August 2022, reflecting the uncertainty associated with the spring predictability barrier. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance during May-July; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Feb. 17th).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 March 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

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[vox_mundi]

Increasing Frequency of El Niño Events Expected by 2040
https://phys.org/news/2022-03-frequency-el-nio-events.html

Global weather fluctuations called El Niño events are likely to become more frequent by 2040, a new study shows.

El Niño—the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—affects climate, ecosystems and societies worldwide.

The study examined four possible scenarios for future carbon emissions, and found increased risk of El Niño events in all four.

... This means El Niño events and associated climate extremes are now more likely "regardless of any significant mitigation actions" to reduce emissions, the researchers warn.

... "we know from previous studies that, when measuring El Niño changes in terms of rainfall shifts in the eastern equatorial Pacific, models predict an increase in the frequency of events."

"This study shows that those changes could happen after the next two decades."

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, examines the "time of emergence" of changes in the tropical Pacific using state-of-the-art climate models.

The time of emergence is defined as when the signal of climate change emerges from the usual background noise of natural climate variability.

When looking at changes in El Niño rainfall patterns, the best estimate of the time of emergence of changes converges on 2040 in all of the four emissions scenarios considered.

Co-author Professor Mat Collins, from the University of Exeter and part of the Global Systems Institute, added that "what surprised us is that changes emerge regardless of the scenario we look at."

"Because rainfall in the tropics is associated with the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs), it is the relative changes in SST that are more important than the absolute change.

"This leads us to the rather stark conclusion that these changes are essentially unavoidable."

Jun Ying, Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific, Nature Climate Change (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01301-z

[jai mitchell]

Global weather fluctuations called El Niño events are likely to become more frequent by 2040, a new study shows.

El Niño—the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—affects climate, ecosystems and societies worldwide.

The study examined four possible scenarios for future carbon emissions, and found increased risk of El Niño events in all four.

see:  https://longbets.org/883/

Mitchell's Argument
Pattern effect warming has been largely absent in the historic surface temperature record. This is due to the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific Ocean surface temperatures and their associated surface wind patterns. This 'third aerosol forcing parameter' has not yet been strongly identified by climate sciences even though it has suppressed surface warming through the modern period and is only now being evidenced as SE Asia continues to reduce high temperature stack emissions of SOx. By (around) 2029 the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will exist in a nearly permanent positive state, causing much higher regional forcing and a doubling of the historic GMST decadal warming trend.

[Bruce Steele]

Current PDO index has been in cold water phase for last two years.
https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.graph

[jai mitchell]

here is the long view.

I think that the aerosol component is obvious. 

[Bruce Steele]

Jai, PDO index has biological ramifications for several West Coast fisheries. Cold Water phase results in better salmonoid ocean conditions and also improves anchovy populations. Cold water phase tends to depress sardine numbers. Warm phase 1925- 1947 where huge sardine populations dominated fishies landings. 1947-1978 cold water and good salmon and anchovy numbers. 1978-1998 warm water and generally  cold water phase in the year since then ( except short 2013-2015  warm phase) 
 I have never seen anyone accurately predict PDO so predictions that it will go permanently  positive  is a surprise to me and I will remain skeptical. .

[jai mitchell]

I have never seen anyone accurately predict PDO so predictions that it will go permanently  positive  is a surprise to me and I will remain skeptical. .

Bruce,

Are you aware of Nietzche's theory of eternal recurrence?

This is your first post here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,88.msg980.html#msg980

I thought that was interesting.

Here is a paper bout the impacts of aerosols on the PDO.  There is still a lot of uncertainty due to the multiple factors, as I said, it looks obvious to me, definitive proof, however, is more tedious.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg331613.html#msg331613

[Bruce Steele]

“Neitzche
What if some day or night a demon were to steal after you into your loneliest loneliness, and say to you, "This life as you now live it and have lived it, you will have to live once more and innumerable times more; and there will be nothing new in it, but every pain and every joy and every thought and sigh and everything unutterably small or great in your life will have to return to you, all in the same succession and sequence [...]
Would you not throw yourself down and gnash your teeth and curse the demon who spoke thus? Or have you once experienced a tremendous moment when you would have answered him: "You are a god and never have I heard anything more divine" [...][19] “

Jai, if I have to relive my days i can be happy I have gotten to know a few people here on the forum and will  revisit your comments and interests in another life. 
 Otherwise perhaps I am a broken record. The thought of a broken record ( a skip ) made me smile because if you never listened to an LP you wouldn’t realize how irritating a skip can be.

 

[jai mitchell]

not as bad as when the needle rides on the outer edge 

[gerontocrat]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

10 March 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter.

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened during February 2022 across the central and east-central tropical Pacific, with negative anomalies stretching from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In particular, the weekly Niño-3.4 index decreased from -0.6°C at the beginning of February to -1.1°C in the last week [Fig. 2], while the other Niño SST regions were between -0.6°C and -1.3°C in the last week. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) were near zero [Fig. 3], as the recent warming associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave has attenuated. Below-average temperatures have expanded near the surface and at depth near ~150°W [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies strengthened during the past month, with the extension of enhanced low-level easterly winds across the equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remaining over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection strengthened around the Date Line, while convection was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus favors a slower decay of La Niña due to the recent renewal of ocean-atmosphere coupling, which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art climate models. For the summer and beyond, there is large uncertainty in the state of ENSO; however forecasters lean toward negative Niño-3.4 index values even if the index does not reach La Niña thresholds. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Mar. 17th).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 April 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

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[gerontocrat]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

12 May 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted during April across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Over the past month, the Niño index values decreased, with the latest weekly values ranging from -1.1°C to -1.5°C [Fig. 2], which are quite negative for this time of year. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) remained negative [Fig. 3], reflecting an extensive area of below-average temperatures from the surface to ~100m depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies dominated the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained significantly suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts borderline La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with increasing odds for La Niña into the fall [Fig. 6]. Similar to last month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer, but remaining below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). In the near-term, westerly wind anomalies are predicted for mid-late May which supports the weakening of below-average surface and subsurface oceanic temperatures in the coming months. However, much of the model guidance is also hinting at a re-strengthening of La Niña conditions again in the fall and upcoming winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 June 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[/size]

[gerontocrat]

La Nina continues

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

9 June 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance).

During May, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. However, negative SST anomalies weakened during the past month, as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.6°C to -0.9°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) also weakened with values returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to at least ~75m depth from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures continuing at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the east-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and was weakly enhanced over parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. This is now in greater agreement with the forecast consensus this month, which also predicts La Niña to continue into the winter. However, it is clear that recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies have weakened and this is anticipated to continue through the summer. Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 July 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[/size]

[kassy]

Are Earth’s natural climatic patterns changing? An uncharacteristic La Nina may be a sign

The ongoing La Nina may become the longest on record

The character of La Nina — an ocean-atmosphere event that usually brings down global temperatures — is changing, indicating a shift in natural climatic patterns in a warming world.

This is especially evidenced by La Nina’s strong continuation through the summer of 2022 and its involvement in the early, intense and extensive heatwaves in northwest and central India.

During a La Nina event, cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures prevail over the east and central Pacific Ocean, due to which the trade winds above the sea surface change in character because of a difference in the wind pressures.

This change in character of the trade winds is then carried all around the world affecting different regions in different ways. Many regions become colder and wetter, while many others become hotter and drier.

There are chances that the current La Nina could continue through the southwest monsoon season, winter of 2022 and even early 2023, and could lead to devastating and unpredictable consequences for India and many other regions around the world.

The only other instances of such long La Nina events were during 1998-2001 and 1973-1976. The 1973-1976 event was 37 months long and the longest since 1950, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The longest La Nina on record was the one between 1998 and 2000 that lasted 24 months, according to a research paper published in the Journal of Meteorological Research in December 2018.

There is a 70 per cent chance that the current La Nina will continue from June-August 2022, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), and thus complete 24 months.

WMO predicted a 50-60 percent chance of it continuing from July-September. The weather agency also indicated chances of it continuing into the fall and winter seasons in the northern hemisphere but did not give specific probabilities for that happening.

On June 6, NOAA predicted that there was 58 per cent chance of La Nina for the August-October season and 61 per cent for the winter season.

More than the length of the ongoing La Nina, it is its changing character that is a cause of great concern. La Nina usually brings wet and cold winter and spring seasons for India, but this time large parts of India did not experience a spring season at all.

This happened as a north-south pressure pattern, which usually forms over India during the winter season and dissipates by spring, continued into March and April this year.

The pattern interacted with warm waves coming in from the rapidly warming Arctic region to initiate and prolong heatwaves in the country.

The characteristics of the La Nina in March-May also indicate a stronger La Nina than usual.

The month of May, for instance, was the second-strongest La Nina month on record, according to Emily Becker at the University of Miami, United States.


Becker, along with other climate experts, wrote a blog on the ENSO phenomenon for the climate.gov website of NOAA.

If the three months are taken as a season, then the temperature anomaly of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean was 1.1 degree Celsius below normal. This is the second-lowest since the 1950s when the temperature was 1.2°C below normal.

This was also only the second time since the 1950s that the La Nina became stronger (cooler) than the months of February-April.

The stubborn nature of the La Nina over the next many months can have devastating consequences for different regions of the world, including India.

India can experience a prolonged monsoon season the third year in a row, for instance. The monsoon seasons of 2020 and 2021 was also extended, leading to an increase in extreme rainfall events during the period and subsequent floods in many states. The extension had most likely happened because of the impact of La Nina, according to climate scientists.

The ongoing drought conditions in 40 per cent of the United States, the years-long drought conditions in the Horn of Africa and southern South America would also likely continue and become more intense due to the continuation of the La Nina, WMO said.

NOAA has also factored in the impact of La Nina and forecast an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean, with a 65 per cent probability.

During a La Nina event, the vertical wind shear (change in intensity of vertical winds from near surface to higher parts of atmosphere) is low over the Atlantic Ocean and is conducive for the formation and intensification of hurricanes. A strong wind shear tears apart a hurricane from the top.

The continuation and changing character of the La Nina in an era of climate change has been highlighted by the WMO. Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of WMO, said in a press release on La Nina June 10:

Human induced climate change amplifies the impacts of naturally occurring events like La Niña and is increasingly influencing our weather patterns, in particular through more intense heat and drought and the associated risk of wildfires — as well as record-breaking deluges of rainfall and flooding.

Climate change scientists have also predicted an impact of global warming on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (of which La Nina is a part) phenomenon itself, especially the extremes.

“Extreme El Niño and La Niña events may increase in frequency from about one every 20 years to one every 10 years by the end of the 21st century under aggressive greenhouse gas emission scenarios,” said Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist with NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, in an article on the NOAA website.

The strongest events may also become even stronger than they are today, he added.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/are-earth-s-natural-climatic-patterns-changing-an-uncharacteristic-la-nina-may-be-a-sign-83293

[gerontocrat]

from:- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 July 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance).

During June, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean with SSTs returning to near-average in the east-central Pacific [Fig. 1], as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.4°C to -1.2°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth were weakly positive in June [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to ~75m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the western and central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index now forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus also predicts La Niña to persist during the remainder of 2022, with odds for La Niña remaining at 60% or greater through early winter. Lowest odds occur during the next few months with a 60% chance of La Niña and a 39% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. Subsequently, chances of La Niña increase slightly during the fall and early winter. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 August 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740[/size]

[John Batteen]

Ugh, please, no.  Not again, not for a while at least.  These La Nina winters are awful on the northern plains for people and plants.  I keep getting winterkill in plants that are supposed to be hardy.

[Rodius]

Ugh, please, no.  Not again, not for a while at least.  These La Nina winters are awful on the northern plains for people and plants.  I keep getting winterkill in plants that are supposed to be hardy.

As bad as La Nina is for you.... I am absolutely terrified about the next El Nino.

Australia had super massive fires a few years ago under a neutral system. We havent seen fires that big ever before and almost all the previous large fires (not as big as the last super massive event) happen in El Nino events.

When the next El Nino happens, Australia is just going to burn down everywhere. La Nina events tend to be good for growth in forests in Australia. Which sounds like good news until you consider that this new growth is just fuel for the next El Nino fire storms. Where the last fires storms happened there is plenty of new growth happening, all of it will dry up and die in an El Nino. I might go for a trip to take photos to demonstrate what is happening.

We wont be the only country that will have to fight super massive fires either... but I bet Australia will be the worst by a long shot.

And I wouldnt be surprised if the next El Nino finishes off the Great Barrier Reef.
I am not even sure how the damage of that reef disappearing can even be measured. I would be surprised if the reef could even return once it is destroyed in the next El Nino.

To me, the next El Nino is going to trigger a lot of bad shit.... so while I feel for your situation, I would prefer it if the La Nina would just keep on keeping on.

It wont, but I wish it would.

[gerontocrat]

Seems to be higher chances of ENSO neutral and El Nino as we move into Spring 2023

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
11 August 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
 
Synopsis:  La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23.

During the past month, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices indicated renewed cooling, with the latest Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 indices reaching -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies also decreased rapidly in the past month [Fig. 3], reflecting the reemergence of below-average subsurface temperatures across the east-central Pacific Ocean due to an upwelling Kelvin wave propagating eastward [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with an ongoing La Niña.

The most recent IRI plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus, supplemented with the latest models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), concurs that La Niña is the most likely outcome during the fall and winter. While a majority of NMME models suggest that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023, forecasters are split on this outcome resulting in equal forecast probabilities for that season. In summary, La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23 [Fig. 7].

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 September 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[/size]

[kassy]

Open Access
Arctic sea-ice loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events

Abstract
Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially and is projected to reach a seasonally ice-free state in the coming decades. Little is known about whether dwindling Arctic sea ice is capable of influencing the occurrence of strong El Niño, a prominent mode of climate variability with global impacts. Based on time slice coupled model experiments, here we show that no significant change in the occurrence of strong El Niño is found in response to moderate Arctic sea-ice loss that is consistent with satellite observations to date. However, as the ice loss continues and the Arctic becomes seasonally ice-free, the frequency of strong El Niño events increases by more than one third, as defined by gradient-based indices that remove mean tropical Pacific warming induced by the seasonally ice-free Arctic. By comparing our time slice experiments with greenhouse warming experiments, we conclude that at least 37–48% of the increase of strong El Niño near the end of the 21st century is associated specifically with Arctic sea-ice loss. Further separation of Arctic sea-ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing only experiments implies that the seasonally ice-free Arctic might play a key role in driving significantly more frequent strong El Niño events.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32705-2

Yeah i know it is for future seasons. 

[gerontocrat]

Maybe ENSO neutral next spring and summer witha hint of an El Nino later on?

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 September 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023.

During August, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The largest SST anomalies were evident in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions, with the latest weekly values reaching -0.8°C and -1.1°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies were mostly unchanged during the month [Fig. 3], reflecting the dominance of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. There is an interesting split in the dynamical versus statistical model forecasts, with the latter set suggesting La Niña will persist longer, through January-March 2023. At this time, the forecaster consensus sides with the statistical models, although there is still large uncertainty over how long La Niña will last and when it will transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during February-April 2023). In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023 [Fig. 7].

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 October 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[/size]

[Jim Hunt]

According to the BoM:

The ENSO Outlook dial has been raised to LA NIÑA. This follows recent cooling in the central tropical Pacific and model outlooks indicating that cooler than average ocean temperatures will be sustained until at least the end of 2022.

The majority of models predict an easing of the La Niña in early 2023, suggesting a relatively short-lived event; ENSO events typically peak during the southern hemisphere summer and decay during the autumn.

[kassy]

Rare ‘triple dip’ La Niña declared

https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/62890361

More rain for eastern Australia and more drought for eastern Africa...

[dnem]

Perhaps this belongs in the Questions thread, but does an extended La Niña increase the odds of a strong or super El Niño when it finally arrives?

[kassy]

Triple-dip La Niña's have only happened twice since records began in 1950 - the first from 1973 to 1975 and the most recent 1998-2001.

Strongest El Nino times are 97-98 and 72-73 was another strong year.

See the graph on:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/mw_climate/elNino/climatology.jsp

So graph analysis by eyeball makes it look like a reverse- The historical cases could be interpreted as La Nina catching up, so it is longer because there has been a peak before (the ocean needs to replenish the lost heat).

If we assume that is correct it merely buys us more time but the actual strength of the El Nino might not at all be determined by the preceding La Nina or it´s intensity on the ONI scale for example. The push we exert on the climate system might be more important because that controls the amount of heat going into the oceans.

Anyway interesting question.

[Bruce Steele]

    Kassy Typo ? “Strongest El Niño times are 97-98 and ( 72 -73 ) 82-83 was another strong year.”

 

[kassy]

Maybe more like an editing failure. Maybe i should just have mentioned those years but the key point is that the triple dips look like they followed the peaks. 82-83 was stronger but it did not count as a triple dip and it has smaller ones on the ONI metric.

Anyway the heat builds up over time. Eyeballing the graph i would say extended La Ninas do not increase the chance of a strong El Ninos following as much as our heat input into the system.

[kassy]

La Niña winters could keep on coming

Forecasters are predicting a "three-peat La Niña" this year. This will be the third winter in a row that the Pacific Ocean has been in a La Niña cycle, something that's happened only twice before in records going back to 1950.

New research led by the University of Washington offers a possible explanation. The study, recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, suggests that climate change is, in the short term, favoring La Niñas.

...

Global warming is widely expected to favor El Niños. The reason is that the cold, deep water rising to the sea surface off South America will meet warmer air. Anyone who's sweated knows that evaporation has a cooling effect, so the chillier ocean off South America, which has less evaporation, will warm faster than the warmer ocean off Asia. This decreases the temperature difference across the tropical Pacific and lightens the surface winds blowing toward Indonesia, the same as occurs during El Niño. Past climate records confirm that the climate was more El Niño-like during warmer periods.

But while Earth's atmosphere has warmed in recent decades, the new study shows a surprising trend in the tropical ocean. The authors looked at temperatures at the surface of the ocean recorded by ship-based measurements and ocean buoys from 1979 to 2000. The Pacific Ocean off South America has actually cooled slightly, along with ocean regions farther south. Meanwhile, the western Pacific Ocean and nearby eastern Indian Ocean have warmed more than elsewhere. Neither phenomenon can be explained by the natural cycles simulated by climate models. This suggests that some process missing in current models could be responsible.

The upshot of these changes on either side of the tropical Pacific is that the temperature difference between the eastern and western Pacific has grown, surface winds blowing toward Indonesia have strengthened, and people are experiencing conditions typical of La Niña winters. The study focuses on temperature patterns at the ocean's surface. Thirty years of data is too short to study the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events.

"The climate models are still getting reasonable answers for the average warming, but there's something about the regional variation, the spatial pattern of warming in the tropical oceans, that is off," Wills said.

The researchers aren't sure why this pattern is happening. Their current work is exploring tropical climate processes and possible links to the ocean around Antarctica. Once they know what's responsible, they may be able to predict when it will eventually switch to favor El Niños.

"If it turns out to be natural long-term cycles, maybe we can expect it to switch in the next five to 10 years, but if it is a long-term trend due to some processes that are not well represented in the climate models, then it would be longer. Some mechanisms have a switch that would happen over the next few decades, but others could be a century or longer," Wills said.

The study was conducted before this year's potential triple La Niña was announced. But Wills is cautious about declaring victory.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/10/221003152155.htm

[El Cid]

....The authors looked at temperatures at the surface of the ocean recorded by ship-based measurements and ocean buoys from 1979 to 2000. ....

Seriously? 1979-2000??? Long time frame that excludes natural variablitiy: check, up-to-date data: check

[J Cartmill]

I think 2000 was an error by the reporter, the abstract of the actual paper says 1979 to 2020.

[El Cid]

My bad then

[J Cartmill]

Not your bad. It was the reporter's error.

The lead author has a link to a non-paywalled version, he also has some other interesting papers including this one Constraining the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic using a simple model

Here is his publications page:
https://atmos.washington.edu/~rcwills/publications.html

[gerontocrat]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
13 October 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023.

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during September [Fig. 1]. Most of the Niño indices decreased during the past month, with the latest weekly index values spanning -0.8°C to -1.6°C [Fig. 2]. For the last couple of months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies remained mostly unchanged [Fig. 3], reflecting the persistence of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus for this month favors a slightly later transition to ENSO-neutral, during February-April 2023, which is consistent with the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). However, predicting the timing of transitions is challenging, and there continues to be uncertainty over how long La Niña may last. In summary, there is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 [Fig. 7].

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 November 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[/size]

[kassy]

Fourth La Nina event, if it occurs, will probably first be noticed underwater in the Pacific Ocean

Climate scientists will be watching the subsurface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean to determine if a fourth year of La Nina weather conditions could emerge.

The CSIROs Data 61 Senior Research Scientist Dr Nandini Ramesh, says while three-year La Niña events have happened before, there has never been a four-year event. Nonetheless “it is very unlikely, but not impossible, that it will continue for another year”.

...

Ramesh says scientists are watching for signs in the eastern and central equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean. “La Niña events arise when the eastern-central equatorial Pacific is colder than usual. These can turn into longer La Niña events, when the ocean’s currents and atmosphere’s winds reinforce each other, which means a La Niña state can perpetuate for years at a time.”

“We’ll be watching surface temperatures and temperatures under the surface … the underwater temperatures will give us the longest lead time in predicting the next event.”

“Conditions over the eastern-central Pacific are relatively unpredictable in March to May because of a phenomenon called the Spring Predictability Barrier (because it occurs in spring in the Northern Hemisphere). So we’ll watch carefully in about July or August next year to understand what will unfold. We’ll also be watching the pattern of surface winds in that region as they influence surface temperatures.”

...

https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/fourth-la-nina-event/

I am curious if we going to get another year and if not what will happen then...we shall see.

[etienne]

[Rodius]

This is what terrifies me about these La Nina events.
What the hell with the next El Nino do?

I keep thinking about the extreme fires from 2019 in Australia and how that was a neutral year. El Nino has huge fires, that is normal, but to get the worst fire season ever in a neutral year is not right.

When the EL Nino turns up, Australia will burn like never before. There is no escaping it.

[kassy]

The big question is the global temperature increase. It should be interesting in many places. It could add 0,2 or 0,3 globally so for NL that would be 0,4-0,6 because we are at about double. Go up further north to where it is four times that then that will be 0,8 yo 1,2 C over. And there is a small chance it might go higher.

[gerontocrat]

See last image - chance of El Nino creepng up as next summer progresses

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 November 2022
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  There is a 76% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57% chance).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened in the east-central Pacific Ocean during the past month [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño index values were near -1.0°C, with the exception of Niño-1+2 which was at -1.8°C [Fig. 2]. Since late July 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have been quite persistent [Fig. 3], reflecting the stationary pattern of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident across most of the equatorial Pacific. However, in the last week, the low-level trade winds weakened in association with sub-seasonal tropical variability. Convection remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus, which also considers the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), is in agreement with the timing of this transition. The recent weakening of the trade winds suggest below-average SSTs may be near their minimum, though considerable uncertainty remains over how gradually the anomalies will decay. In summary, there is a 76% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 December 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Rodius]

What happened to a few years of neutral between La Nina and El Nino?

[kassy]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#/media/File:20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg

They do not happen that often if you just count the white bars.

It will be interesting to see the next El Nino. Might be a good warning too...

[El Cid]

What happened to a few years of neutral between La Nina and El Nino?

That is still the most likely outcome

[trm1958]

That should put the next El Nino just at solar maximum.

[Human Habitat Index]

[kassy]

For those that prefer texts it´s about this:
https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winters-could-keep-on-coming/

Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change

Abstract
Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state-of-the-art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming. Here we investigate the ability of 16 climate model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure trends over 1979–2020 through a combination of externally forced climate change and internal variability. We find large-scale differences between observed and modeled trends that are very unlikely (<5% probability) to occur due to internal variability as represented in models. Disparate trends in the ratio of Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to tropical-mean warming, which shows little multi-decadal variability in models, hint that model biases in the response to historical forcing constitute part of the discrepancy.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100011

[Human Habitat Index]

For those that prefer texts it´s about this:
https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winters-could-keep-on-coming/

Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change

Abstract
Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state-of-the-art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming. Here we investigate the ability of 16 climate model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure trends over 1979–2020 through a combination of externally forced climate change and internal variability. We find large-scale differences between observed and modeled trends that are very unlikely (<5% probability) to occur due to internal variability as represented in models. Disparate trends in the ratio of Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to tropical-mean warming, which shows little multi-decadal variability in models, hint that model biases in the response to historical forcing constitute part of the discrepancy.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100011

I wonder if the unprecendented rate of change of increase in greenhouse gases messes with paleo-climate calibrations and processes built into the models.

[kassy]

I think that most of the detailed work on mechanisms in the models comes from rather recent data.
They miss something in the distribution of the temperatures but then there are details missing in  cloud modelling too. Some of these have been improved recently but we don´t know what the models use (how up to date they all are). So it is not necessarily related to speed of change.

[jai mitchell]

we have already found the issue, the aerosol total ERF was understated by 50 to 75% in the models.

[El Cid]

we have already found the issue, the aerosol total ERF was understated by 50 to 75% in the models.

But aerosol emissions globally (eg here: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/10/1095/htm ) did NOT decrease during 1970-2020, they increased. So if we underestimated their ERF (which is more negative than previously thought) then there should have been LESS warming globally than implied by models but in fact there was MORE warming than implied by models

[Sublime_Rime]

But aerosol emissions globally (eg here: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/10/1095/htm ) did NOT decrease during 1970-2020, they increased. So if we underestimated their ERF (which is more negative than previously thought) then there should have been LESS warming globally than implied by models but in fact there was MORE warming than implied by models

I'm sorry, but I have to disagree. If you look at Figure 3a in this paper you cited, the global trend found in this study, there is a reduction in the sum ERF for 1970-2000 due to the changes in the US and EU overpowering the increases from China and India (I didn't expect this).

But I think the more important factor is that changes in aerosol forcing from recent work (such as that scary paper on ship trails and effect of water droplet forcing, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0) may change the models outputs on regional scales, giving the inverse relationship of the paper that was cited by Kassy above. While I'm sure a variety of other factors play a role, such a large shift in aerosol forcings as by the Nature paper on ship trails (+0.2 to -0.7W/m2) and other aerosol nuances seem to be rearing their ugly heads.

[El Cid]

Basically no, but this is OT here, so we should probably continue on another thread