The 2022 melting season

[SimonF92]

There really isnt very much around to plug that hole, i expect that to stay a feature until significant refreeze happens.

As that is so close to the pole, it may freeze quite early, could this mean the refreeze date will be early this year?

[FredBear]

This has been a rather curious melt season for the Arctic:-
Early in the year we had cold temperatures coming down to Britain & Europe followed later by silly high temperatures in the northern hemisphere below the Arctic, particularly Western Europe but it did not carry north into the Arctic? (The heat seemed to become trapped rather like the North American "heat dome" that formed last year?).
Heat, drought and floods affecting many other parts of the Earth.
Early wildfires in Alaska with next to no comments about Russian wildfires this year.
I could not see any JAXA daily ice loss above 125,000km². (Usually we would see several over 200,000km² or even more?).

Not what we have come to expect but room for surprises?

[OffTheGrid]

SMOS showing damage.
Greenland has been soaking up a lot of heat Fred. And stirring the pot.
There have been a lot of Siberian wild fires. A plume of SO2 from them has just reached North Greenland and Fram.

[Brigantine]

Foxe melts out. NWP 7 still plugged in Hekla & Fury though

Lesser features in the Davis strait are melting out, but the core of the ice patch is still 7/10

[El Cid]

I don't think there is enough time now for much to happen in the Inner Soup. The last time a similar situation happened (2016) and we had a soupified NP-Atlantic region, it just refroze during the beginning of September 2016. Attached picture shows 2016/08/25 and 2016/09/10. See how the soup refroze quite quickly

[Aluminium]

August 21-25.

2021.

[oren]

August 21-25.

2021.

The ESS arm is shrinking rapidly. The Beaufort marginal ice fully disappeared, though I expect some of it to reappear for a few days, as is usual in such cases.

In 2016 refreeze hit the open water in the NP region on Sep 8th, and I wouldn't be surprised to see similar behavior this year.

[uniquorn]

The Beaufort marginal ice fully disappeared, though I expect some of it to reappear for a few days, as is usual in such cases.

Difficult for amsr2 to detect that low a concentration through cloud. The weather filters likely taking most of it out. Goodbye waves compacting around that eddy near the Barrow Canyon on polarview S1A aug24.

Maybe see similar compaction along the edge of the low concentration area in the Laptev tomorrow if it's clear enough. 0.73m waves from 34km/h wind today on nullschool.

edit:

<>
...as for the ice: I previously thought that the Atlantic Front might link up with the "Inner Soup" for some spectacular late season drop in numbers but it seems less and less likely as there's very little left of the season and the weather is totally boring...

I see the low concentration area more as a consommé with 262km of ragoût on the Atlantic side.
https://go.nasa.gov/3wxsQ0Z

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 24h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

So we had another century break as I predicted. Good to know I still got it...

In the coming days the wind direction on the Pacific side will completely change. This will stall the decline a little for a few days before a solid HPS system pops up over the CAB. This should cause some more compaction of the ice pack before the freezing sets in. Not sure how much it'll be, but for sure we'll see more losses before the end of the season if this forecast holds.

[uniquorn]

Latest instalment rammb of the Laptev/pole low concentration area
https://col.st/htuzd  aug17-26
closer look at the st anna trough area temporarily in test space

[oren]

Wind + Temp @ Surface

The ESS arm should continue suffering. The NW passage main channel will surely open, as the last partial blockage of ice at the Beaufort end is melted or swept away by the warm wind.
After 5 days of action the last frame shows colder temps in the CAB, if this materializes and is maintained for a few days we may get an early initial refreeze.

[Glen Koehler]

August 21-25.

2021.

     Is it just my imagination or does the latest Aluminium animation show ice being moved south through the CAA "garlic press"?

[oren]

I also saw that. But on closer examination some parts are still immobile, so I think this is still only a partial "press". The northern CAA around Ellef Ringness island saw much less heat compared to the southern CAA in July and consequently still has some good ice left (so it would seem).

[Lord M Vader]

Wrt CAA it looks like the NW Passage via Prince of Wales strait is close to upen up. Some swirls of ice is visible in the Parry channel but should melt out soon.

For the NE Passage it is almost open but some swirls of ice are stiĺl visible in the ESS south of Wrangels Island.

[uniquorn]

Big block in the Peary channel is moving or rocking. So is nearly everything else.

The second animation is very detailed at 8MB  https://go.nasa.gov/3cknDCN

annotated map courtesy of Ossifrage

edit: Though the Worldview resolution is good, a daily animation doesn't do it justice so the last one is roughly every 54 minutes. There's a lot of tidal drift competing with the wind in the CAA, new moon coming up too. Maybe it will shift the big block.
rammb aug24-26 https://col.st/wJjb8  sorry, it's 8MB again

[phelan]

For the NE Passage it is almost open but some swirls of ice are stiĺl visible in the ESS south of Wrangels Island.

How do you define open?  Looks wide open to me!  You can sail the entire Northern sea route without navigating even a little bit around ice?

[oren]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic, excluding the more peripheral regions, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). Note the Leads experimental product exaggerates the width of leads, in order to better show movement which I find very useful. Much more information available in the AWI thread mostly updated by uniquorn.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
The gif source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif by the esteemed Dr. Lars Kaleschke, who also posts on this forum from time to time.

[Jim Hunt]

How do you define open?

Using the <= 6/10 concentration yardstick the NSR has been "open" since August 19th:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northern-sea-route-in-2022/#Aug-21

However according to AARI there was still no "open water" route through the ESS yesterday:

[uniquorn]

Crack appeared in the fast(ish) ice in the Peary channel
https://col.st/OJznT

[be cause]

much clearer  in yesterday's WV , rotated to align with Uniquorn's post : https://go.nasa.gov/3pPldPu

[phelan]

How do you define open?

Using the <= 6/10 concentration yardstick the NSR has been "open" since August 19th:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northern-sea-route-in-2022/#Aug-21

However according to AARI there was still no "open water" route through the ESS yesterday:

The only clear semi-views I can find on Worldview were on 8/24 and 8/25, but I'm having a hard time finding the ice they show on the map south and east of Wrangel Island...

That obviously could have changed, but haven't the winds been blowing the ice towards the CAB, not the shore the last few days?

EDIT:  I also don't see the ice north of Wrangel Island they have on the map either, check the 8/25 image.  Sure looks like you could sail in a loop of open water around Wrangel Island if you wanted to...

[Brigantine]

per CIS, new ice spotted in Nansen Sound in between surviving floes (N, O, P and the yellow area)

Though they have been known to jump the gun IIRC. Can any satellite wizards verify / falsify? Or local sitreps from Eureka

[phelan]

Here's what Worldview shows in it's latest image. 

(I am not a satellite wizard, I just use the settings "because" uses for Worldview - thanks for that btw)

[Iain]

Southward movement of the ice continues on a broad front at the North of the CAA/CAB

Wind is expected to be light and from the SE for the next few days

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 24h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Difficult to read this forecast. I would say that the cooldown has begun...

[Niall Dollard]

per CIS, new ice spotted in Nansen Sound in between surviving floes (N, O, P and the yellow area)

Though they have been known to jump the gun IIRC. Can any satellite wizards verify / falsify? Or local sitreps from Eureka

Just had a look on sentinel and I cannot see any new ice. Besides temperatures at Eureka are well above what you would want for sea ice freeze.

So not much sign yet of winter in the high Arctic. The only thing of note was a recent snowfall over NE Greenland on August 18th.

Click to run

[Jim Hunt]

Just had a look on sentinel and I cannot see any new ice.

However here's a sitrep from significantly further south. Auto translated from the original Portuguese of Beto Pandiani in a catamaran crossing Larsen Sound:

Around 1pm [on August 27th] we found the first ice barrier, and it was very quiet to cross because it was spread. The amazing thing is that you've already seen new ice forming. The sea is so cold as is the air that the Arctic Ocean is already in the process of freezing again...

At this very moment we're getting ready for the second non stop night. Definitely the coldest night of the trip so far. Let's take shorter shifts so we don't get too much cold exposure.

Freezing of wide open water seems unlikely, but in the gaps between floes?

[Jim Hunt]

I also don't see the ice north of Wrangel Island they have on the map either, check the 8/25 image. 

My ageing eyes can see ice in the way of such a circumnavigation on your image?!

Bear in mind that satellites don't see absolutely everything. See above for example.

[uniquorn]

New SIMB3 buoy 448890 deployed yesterday at the pole. Allegedly 18cm snow, 1.45m thickness of 'warm' ice. Latest air temps -4.75C, must be sunny as the buoy temps above surface have been warmer than air temps. Played guess the floe  https://go.nasa.gov/3TrLe5g

[uniquorn]

Just had a look on sentinel and I cannot see any new ice.

However here's a sitrep from significantly further south. Auto translated from the original Portuguese of Beto Pandiani in a catamaran crossing Larsen Sound:

Around 1pm [on August 27th] we found the first ice barrier, and it was very quiet to cross because it was spread. The amazing thing is that you've already seen new ice forming. The sea is so cold as is the air that the Arctic Ocean is already in the process of freezing again...

At this very moment we're getting ready for the second non stop night. Definitely the coldest night of the trip so far. Let's take shorter shifts so we don't get too much cold exposure.

Freezing of wide open water seems unlikely, but in the gaps between floes?

This is for melt ponds but might be similar in low salinity melt water between floes. Satellite wouldn't see it.

(d) freezing temperatures and calm conditions in early September allowed frost flowers to form on pond lids and frozen leads

Research Article| May 11 2022
Spatiotemporal evolution of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice: MOSAiC observations and model results
Collections: Knowledge Domain: Ocean Science , Special Feature: The Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC)
Melinda A. Webster, Marika Holland, Nicholas C. Wright, Stefan Hendricks, Nils Hutter, Polona Itkin, Bonnie Light, Felix Linhardt, Donald K. Perovich, Ian A. Raphael, Madison M. Smith, Luisa von Albedyll, Jinlun Zhang
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene (2022) 10 (1): 000072.
https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.000072

[SimonF92]

There is new ice at

lat=82.79025098383272&lng=-38.80865479353815

But given its forming at the calving face of a glacier in Nares land, im not sure of its significance

[uniquorn]

Following up on 448890, air temps and drift since deployment

[oren]

With such low temps the open water interspersed with floes near the NP, which should be cold and relatively fresh, could start freezing very soon.

[Jim Hunt]

It has extremely belatedly come to my attention that Sébastien Roubinet set sail from Sachs Harbour on Banks Island at the end of June. Destination Svalbard via Cape Columbia and Kap Morris Jesup. Given the imminent refreeze plan B has been put into operation. Early exit via the Nares Strait. Moving pictures and more at:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/08/the-nagalaqa-expedition/

[phelan]

I also don't see the ice north of Wrangel Island they have on the map either, check the 8/25 image. 

My ageing eyes can see ice in the way of such a circumnavigation on your image?!

Sure, I see some ice there too, but not ice that is connected and would block a ship from sailing around the island?  The 8.24 image shows open water south of Wrangel Island, which I assume is still open but cloud-covered in the 8.25 image.  The 8.25 image shows some ice on the northeast side you might have to sail around but wouldn't prevent circumnavigating the island?

Anyways, irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.  From what you're saying elsewhere, it seems like the satellite images don't always show ice that is obvious when you're sailing through it, because it is either too weak and/or too new (same thing maybe?) to be visible from space.

I did research CIS a bit, they say this:
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/ice-forecasts-observations/latest-conditions/products-guides/description-analysis-chart.html

Image analysis charts are tailored sea ice chart products that provide a visual interpretation of the ice conditions from synthetic aperture radar imagery frames.  The synthetic aperture radar images are acquired from RADARSAT1 or RADARSAT2 polar orbiting satellites.

and this

The image analysis chart is a visual interpretation of the synthetic aperture radar image by an experienced Analyst using a digital image display and vector drawing tools. Accurate information extraction requires an understanding of ice forms, remote sensing signatures and access to meteorological conditions and the historic patterns of ice in a specific region. Analysts extract ice concentration, ice type and ice topography from the images based on tone, texture and spatial context of the ice features (resolution).  The analysis of the ice regime seen on the synthetic aperture radar image is actually a composite of ice signature recognition and support data.  Support data sources include the prevailing environmental conditions, ice climatology and coincident ice reconnaissance charts from ships, aircraft or helicopters.

Synthetic aperture radar image analysis charts are tailored to meet the user’s requirements.  The scale of the chart is not fixed.  It will be tailored to the client’s geographic area of interest, constrained by the footprint and resolution of the sensor and the need to ensure that the information presented using the egg code is clear and readable and is issued in a timely fashion.  The accuracy of an analysis is also affected by the spatial resolution of the data and processing quality.

In addition to being able to resolve different ice features, the absolute positional accuracy of the data (geo-coding) will be affected by the accuracy of the satellite orbit information.  The Canadian Space Agency estimates the geometric accuracy of a feature such as an ice edge will be within 630 metres for imagery with 100 metres pixel resolution.

My personal conclusion from all this is the CIS (and their Russian counterpart) have a bias towards being conservative, because their charts are use by ships actually navigating the ice areas, and better safe than sorry.  Which makes sense, of course, and since we are really only using their charts for fun here on the forum, c'est la vie.

[Aluminium]

August 23-29.

2022.

[NeilT]

Looks like the Beaufort is starting to go.  Not sure there is enough time now for it to melt out though.  This image is from yesterday on Bremen.

[Jim Hunt]

Sure, I see some ice there too, but not ice that is connected and would block a ship from sailing around the island?

Here's your image viewed using bands 3/6/7. Where do you recommend sailing through the "visible" ice?

Also today's AARI charts now showing an ice free route south of Wrangel Island.

[phelan]

Is that really at least 6/10 ice?  It looks quite diffused, not solid at all.  That's just one large connected wispy floe?

[oren]

Looks like the Beaufort is starting to go.  Not sure there is enough time now for it to melt out though.  This image is from yesterday on Bremen.

Comparing a 7 day period on Worldview (up=west) confirms actual melt of thin ice, as well as general greying of floes. The ice drifted west and north, affected by a warm wind that blew over from the CAA (main channel seen at animation bottom).
Continued melt depends on the weather, but I am guessing the floes should survive at this late date, while some of the thin ice in between should probably disappear.
Click to animate.

[Steven]

Bremen 5-day medians:



3-day medians: https://i.imgur.com/YfBe8RE.gif

[SimonF92]

Extensive refreeze East of the Nares Strait

[Freegrass]

Comparing a 7 day period on Worldview (up=west) confirms actual melt of thin ice, as well as general greying of floes. The ice drifted west and north, affected by a warm wind that blew over from the CAA (main channel seen at animation bottom).
Continued melt depends on the weather, but I am guessing the floes should survive at this late date, while some of the thin ice in between should probably disappear.

Yes, the easy to melt ice seems to be gone now. What's left now is compaction and thin ice vanishing between the floes. The season is running on it's last legs now...

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Some action on the Atlantic side in the coming days, and some more wind and heat coming in over the Beaufort sea that will surely melt some more ice there. Closing off with a new LPS forming over the basin that could do some more damage if it strengthens. But I highly doubt that this will happen. I don't think it'll be able to find enough fuel to do that. Let's see how it develops in the coming days...

[Freegrass]

Winter leads are showing up, so the ice pack is starting to fuse...
Click to animate

[The Walrus]

Melt has also slowed dramatically over the past few days.

[phelan]

Melt has also slowed dramatically over the past few days.

I'm curious what you base this statement on.  We have been seeing well above average (especially for this time of year) drops in both extent and area going back several days...

[Aluminium]

August 25-31.

August 1-31 (fast).

2021.

[HapHazard]

That low concentration area by the Pole is certainly persistent/interesting.

[weatherdude88]

Melt has also slowed dramatically over the past few days.

I'm curious what you base this statement on.  We have been seeing well above average (especially for this time of year) drops in both extent and area going back several days...

Look at daily NSIDC sea ice area values. There is more sea ice area on 8.30.2022 than 8.28.2022.