JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll

[Juan C. García]

It's time to start this traditional survey.   

The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in 2022, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September mínimums have been:

Date              Min (10^6 km2)
Sep 12, 2000        6.04
Sep 17, 2001        6.55
Sep 8, 2002          5.51
Sep 18, 2003        5.93
Sep 11, 2004        5.68
Sep 21, 2005        5.18
Sep 14, 2006        5.63
Sep 17, 2007        4.07
Sep 9, 2008          4.50
Sep 12, 2009        5.05
Sep 17, 2010        4.62
Sep 10, 2011        4.27
Sep 16, 2012        3.18
Sep 12, 2013        4.81
Sep 17, 2014        4.88
Sep 14, 2015        4.26
Sep 7, 2016          4.02
Sep 9, 2017          4.47
Sep 21, 2018        4.46
Sep 17, 2019        3.96
Sep 13, 2020        3.55
Sep 12, 2021        4.61

[Juan C. García]

The minimum in all satellite years is:

[Juan C. García]

P.S. Agatha is starting to get to where I live. I'm not in danger, but the Internet equipment is (a lot of thunder), so tomorrow I'll do the other polls.

[oren]

With a nearly complete lack of information, I'm going with 4-4.5, but of course it easily go above and below.

[Stephan]

I went for the 4.0 ± 0.25 M km² bin which I find the most likely one as of today.

[Glen Koehler]

     It will be exactly 4.45, and can't vary by more than 0.1!     (Authoritative self-confidence seems to be the key for success in politics, business, romance, and academia, so thought I'd give it a try.)

     Slightly under 2021 because I don't think the ice pack is in that great a shape with what appears to be a significant volume of thick ice going through the Fram Strait and the Nares leaking like a bad tire.  I also wonder if the lack of a Nares Arch in the Lincoln Sea allows more lateral ice movement towards the Fram.  The comparative melt pond blueishness WorldView images posted by Oren showed smaller large expanses of solid blue in 2022, but 2022 had blue scattered across the entire Arctic basin and less extensive solid white areas.  So the melt pond situation heading into peak solar does not look all that good for the ice either.

    But even with all that, with surprising cool DMI temps so far and undramatic melt Extent, Area, and PIOMAS stats, 2022 looks basically like a repeat of 2021 melt intensity, so Sept. minimum Extent seems to likely be just below 2021.  Perhaps the ASI is still in a temporary post-2012 equilibrium zone as warming forces above and below silently accumulate and eat away at the foundations until another phase of rapid decay kicks in within the next 5 years. That next phase could take it all the way to the September BOE era.  The integrity of the ESS ice may be a linchpin.

     ESS has melted out twice so far, then bounced back the next year.  When it melts out entirely for a 4th time, i.e. possibly as soon as 2023, but probably will take a few more years, that could be the starting bell for an accelerated end game with increased CAB rotation and transpolar drift mobility.  All of which is speculation built on a creaky scaffold of bits of ASIF data, some journal reports, and my expectation that climate disruption will show up in surprising ways sooner than we think it will.

[Juan C. García]

I am going with 3.75-4.25 10^6 km2.

P.S. I am sorry that I have been unable to make the other polls. I am having a lot of problem with my computer and/or internet. it is too slow. I will try tomorrow.

[oren]

Take care Juan, there's no rush. The task will await you.

[gerontocrat]

Hullo Juan. glad to see you are undamaged by Agatha, even if the technology took a hit.

My vote - 4 to 4.5 million km2, perhaps nearer 4.5 than 4.0

[Aluminium]

It's 2022. Anything above 4.0 is less likely than ever.

[Richard Rathbone]

4.25-4.75

Multi-decadal variability is in a phase where its acting against the greenhouse trend for Sept ice extent. I reckon the trend is still down, but much shallower than the 1980-2010 trend and the next 20 years are going to see a lot of boring Septembers for record hunters even if greenhouse gasses maintain BAU.

[be cause]

I've felt in my bones for years that this would be the year that the world would have to go ' Oh FUCK  ! ' and the way this year is quietly unfolding I am becoming more convinced ; so whoever is in the bottom bin , you are no longer alone . b.c.
 

[Juan C. García]

I'm sorry to say this, but for a couple of years I have to work to have a pension. I'm not concentrating hard enough at work, and I'm not concentrating hard enough here. So, I decided that I will not do the other surveys (NSIDC and PIOMAS). It will be great if someone else makes them.

Cheers,

P.S. I will continue making the daily ADS JAXA posts.

[oren]

Juan, I hope you make your pension threshold asap and as painlessly as possible. I am sure someone will step up to do the other polls.
And many thanks as usual for all your valued contributions.

[oren]

A reminder: Poll threads are for stating one's vote submission and its reasoning freely, not to prove others wrong. Most poll voters are wrong by definition, some choose improbable outliers, some might even have bad arguments, but all are encouraged to post a vote without being criticized.
(Had to delete a couple of criticizing posts).

[oren]

I'll add that if anyone wishes to post poll statistics, without referring to specific votes as right or wrong, they are free to do so.

[Brigantine]

I'm wondering about pre-conditioning... Specifically, SMOS Summer data a la the last date of Spring and this 2021 graph

Also - Sea Ice Albedo and Melt Pond Fraction: Last image for 27 September 2021

<link to SMOS thread>

[UPDATE] Steven has provided

Preliminary vote of 4.25-4.75, a more serious vote to happen in another 4 days' worth of data's time.
I'm anticipating another smokey season. One unknown is whether La Niña lasts into minimum season... Essentially all the potential surprises are on the downside, but otherwise last year is the template.

[Freegrass]

I voted between 3.75 and 4.25 million km²

See my post in the melting thread for the reasons why I think it'll be around 4M m².

[Paul]

Voted between 4.25 and 4.75 million, the reletively cool end to May and start of June does mean we probably not got as much momentum as some years however snow cover during May has been record breaking low over Eurasia and the ice does look surprisingly disperse along that line from the Beaufort to the Siberian islands which has occurred in years like 2012 and 2016 so it will be interesting if this comes into play later on in the melt season.

[Icegod]

4.75 to 5.25.......This year so far extent melt has been around 8 to 10% less than the 10 year average. With La Nina happening and the AMO now firmly in it's cold phase I think the ice is going to have a hard time melting. The last decade even with all the El Niño hype the ice today is in better shape than minimum 2012. I don't think it's just coincidence it's not gone lower, there's a lot we don't know about the PDO and AMO affects on the Arctic. The AMO has slowed around Northern Europe not bringing the same heat energy as before. As to why? Maybe the movie The Day After Tomorrow was right about a few things I don't know. It's been a decade since we had a record low, if temperature data told the whole story you'd think there be less by now.

[Brigantine]

Final vote: 4.50 - 5.00

Probably moderately high in comparison to recent years, but hey it's still June and anything could happen.
[EDITED] Final Estimated probabilities for each bin:
Mean                                   4.41
Median                                4.53
Highest Probability Density 4.67
95% Confidence Range      2.97 - 5.37

<2.00 0.1%
2.00-2.25 0.1%, 2.25-2.50 0.3%, 2.50-2.75 0.7%, 2.75-3.00 1.5%
3.00-3.25 2.7%, 3.25-3.50 4.2%, 3.50-3.75 5.7%, 3.75-4.00 6.9%
4.00-4.25 9.3%, 4.25-4.50 15.8%, 4.50-4.75 22.1%, 4.75-5.00 18.3%
5.00-5.25 8.3%, >5.25 4.0%

[KenB]

I'm also going with 3.75-4.25 10^6 km2.