Author Topic: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2022? (Read 11994 times)

Jim Hunt · « **on:** June 19, 2022, 04:39:00 PM »

For the purposes of this poll "open" counts as <= 6/10 concentration on the Canadian Ice Service charts along the entire length of one of the assorted routes through the CAA.

"Travers[ing] the Northwest Passage" implies without the assistance of an icebreaker.

Here are the assorted numbered routes through the Northwest Passage (click to enlarge):

Should a "tie break" become necessary please feel free to select the route you expect to open first as well as a date.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #1 on:** June 19, 2022, 04:52:12 PM »

To assist your deliberations, here are the most recent Canadian Ice Service sea ice type maps for the Northwest Passage (click to enlarge):

oren · « **Reply #2 on:** June 19, 2022, 05:19:12 PM »

Thanks for starting the poll Jim.
I vote for 5 or 6, as "It's always Bellot Strait", and the southern CAA is seeing some good melting this year while the northern part appears to be quite pristine for now. I chose Aug 1-15, but I can't recall results of previous years so this is just a wild guess.

Tor Bejnar · « **Reply #3 on:** June 19, 2022, 06:36:14 PM »

Past results do not predict future outcomes... from last year's poll's thread:

Quote from: Jim Hunt on May 29, 2021, 01:43:53 PM

Quote from: NevB on May 28, 2021, 02:13:36 PM
Now I think I'll go for route 1.

Whilst it's possible that route 1 will eventually open this year it would be extraordinary if that happened before one of the southern routes became passable. IMHO!

Quote from: interstitial on May 29, 2021, 08:28:08 AM
Historically speaking I do not think anything before mid August is very likely. Am I wrong?

You are not far wrong. Again IMHO! Checking my own records

2020 - August 11th
2019 - August 16th
2018 - Never? However Thor escaped ice in Franklin Strait on August 28th
2017 - August 27th
2016 - August 11th
2015 - ~August 13th

I seem to recall that in 2012 the passage opened very early. Double checking that will have to wait a while though. The surf's up on the North Coast of Cornwall!

August 11, 2021? per this post.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #4 on:** June 19, 2022, 06:43:58 PM »

Some additional information.

CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness from mid April, and AMSR2 concentration from June 18th.

Tor Bejnar · « **Reply #5 on:** June 19, 2022, 06:57:08 PM »

I'll go with "It's always Bellot Strait" and August 11 seems like a popular date.
But like Sgt. Schultz:

gerontocrat · « **Reply #6 on:** June 19, 2022, 07:15:16 PM »

Because this season will be weird, I am going for Route 1 (farthest North) because the CAA will be choked up the further south you go.

It will happen on September 4th

I have spoken and will not change despite all the evidence to the contrary

signed...The Gerontocrat

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #7 on:** June 19, 2022, 07:37:09 PM »

Quote from: Tor Bejnar on June 19, 2022, 06:36:14 PM

August 11, 2021?

Yes, although the following day the passage closed again using the <= 6/10 criterion! Subsequently assorted "choke points" opened/closed over the next couple of weeks.

HapHazard · « **Reply #8 on:** June 19, 2022, 09:45:02 PM »

I just pulled my canoe out of storage, but have yet to personally check out the conditions. I'll vote once I do.

Brigantine · « **Reply #9 on:** June 20, 2022, 12:16:13 AM »

My thanks for the poll.

Preliminary vote, to be reviewed closer to closing:

Late August. Route 7 only.
Expecting a high minimum up north, but heat from the continent should still do the job on the most southerly route - and the Beaufort has to have some offshore winds at some point to open a passage.
Re routes 5 & 6, the section around the north of Baffin will be open at times, but I'm guessing/voting that those won't quite be the same times as the central and western sections of the route.

Maybe I'm anchoring too heavily on 2021. Let's see how events change the outlook over the next month

interstitial · « **Reply #10 on:** June 20, 2022, 05:58:05 AM »

Sept 1-15

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #11 on:** June 20, 2022, 11:37:44 AM »

Doing my own due diligence I've just discovered this new (to me at least) page on the Canadian Ice Service web site which generates ice coverage tables and graphs for assorted areas of the Canadian Arctic, including both the northern and southern routes through the Northwest Passage:

https://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/IceGraph/page1.xhtml

Here's how 2021 fared, plus the history of the southern route for the 2nd week in August:

KenB · « **Reply #12 on:** June 21, 2022, 03:05:26 AM »

Route 6, last half of Sept. for me.

HapHazard · « **Reply #13 on:** June 21, 2022, 10:46:47 AM »

Route 5

Aug. 1-15

Book 'em, Danno.

KenB · « **Reply #14 on:** June 21, 2022, 04:29:06 PM »

Quote from: KenB on June 21, 2022, 03:05:26 AM

Route 6, last half of Sept. for me.

Whoops - meant last half of Aug. Vote changed.

interstitial · « **Reply #15 on:** June 23, 2022, 07:16:40 AM »

By the time voting closes most of you will change your vote out of August.

HapHazard · « **Reply #16 on:** June 27, 2022, 09:13:23 PM »

OK so let's post some relevant info real quick. Note the Climate Reanalyzer pic is for a few days out, and I tweaked the levels on the Worldview capture, for clarity.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #17 on:** July 02, 2022, 11:12:06 AM »

Quote from: interstitial on June 23, 2022, 07:16:40 AM

By the time voting closes most of you will change your vote out of August.

To July or September?

interstitial · « **Reply #18 on:** July 02, 2022, 12:40:27 PM »

Quote from: Jim Hunt on July 02, 2022, 11:12:06 AM

Quote from: interstitial on June 23, 2022, 07:16:40 AM
By the time voting closes most of you will change your vote out of August.

To July or September?

looks like I might have to eat my words on that one still some time though.

binntho · « **Reply #19 on:** July 05, 2022, 09:41:05 AM »

Breakup in the MacClure strait.

Click for animation.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #20 on:** July 05, 2022, 10:40:15 AM »

Breakup in Lancaster Sound and Prince Regent Inlet as well:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#Jul-05

Brigantine · « **Reply #21 on:** July 21, 2022, 06:12:22 AM »

CIS zooms in on Bellot Strait

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #22 on:** July 22, 2022, 09:16:39 PM »

The CIS still hasn't zoomed in on Cape Bathurst, but nonetheless Alberto “Beto” Pandiani and Igor Bely in their catamaran “Igloo” have successfully sailed around it into the Amundsen Gulf:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#Jul-22

Note that they set sail from Tuktoyaktuk rather than the Bering Sea.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #23 on:** July 23, 2022, 04:17:37 PM »

In the eastern CAA National Geographic Resolution is currently cruising around Prince Regent Inlet. Meanwhile in the west Igloo has reached Paulatuk:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#comment-622174

Brigantine · « **Reply #24 on:** July 25, 2022, 10:33:08 AM »

July vote: Changed to early (est. 9-15) August, route 5/6 first, with 3/4 and 7 following in Late August. But still at all times involving open-again-closed-again narrow polynyas along coastlines of/opposite/near Somerset Island.

The weather came straight in just after I made my preliminary vote, and ultimately seems like it will make a bigger impact than what the condition of the ice was beforehand. Beaufort doesn't look like playing any role unless there are somehow persistent NW winds. So when a path past Somerset Island opens, the whole route opens.

Quote from: Brigantine on June 20, 2022, 12:16:13 AM

My thanks for the poll.

Preliminary vote, to be reviewed closer to closing:

Late August. Route 7 only.
Expecting a high minimum up north, but heat from the continent should still do the job on the most southerly route - and the Beaufort has to have some offshore winds at some point to open a passage.
Re routes 5 & 6, the section around the north of Baffin will be open at times, but I'm guessing/voting that those won't quite be the same times as the central and western sections of the route.

Maybe I'm anchoring too heavily on 2021. Let's see how events change the outlook over the next month

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #25 on:** July 25, 2022, 11:31:16 AM »

As Brigantine points out, only a few days remain in which to change your vote if so desired. I'm sticking with the first half of August, route 6.

The ice hardened cruise ship National Geographic Resolution is currently blazing that trail, en route to Gjoa Haven having successfully negotiated Bellot Strait:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#comment-623277

Heading in the opposite direction Karl Kruger has parked his stand up paddleboard on a beach north of Tuktoyaktuk, presumably in order to get some much needed rest.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #26 on:** July 31, 2022, 02:04:33 PM »

August is almost upon us so here are the final results of the poll. As you can see, I am with the majority.

The CIS has finally started coverage of Cape Bathurst, and there are currently at least four "small vessels" heading in that direction from Point Barrow:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#comment-626444

The main areas of fairly solid sea ice on route 6 are either side of Bellot Strait and Franklin Strait, where a band of weaker ice seems to be opening up along the coast at the moment.

National Geographic Resolution and Endurance have already passed through that "choke point" heading west, but they are ice hardened cruise ships!

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #27 on:** August 01, 2022, 01:15:41 PM »

There was a fairly clear satellite view of route 1 through the Northwest Passage via the Parry Channel yesterday:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#Aug-01

Click for a (much!) bigger picture:

PS - See also Uniquorn's post on the melting season thread.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #28 on:** August 02, 2022, 02:37:23 PM »

There is still no CIS coverage of Peel Sound, but there are now many more satellite images to peruse:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#Aug-02

Quote

It looks as though the Northwest Passage will be “open” for “small craft” in the not too distant future, possibly via a variety of routes!

IMHO!

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #29 on:** August 02, 2022, 11:43:21 PM »

Still no CIS coverage of Peel Sound

However things look like they may be about to open up through the Bellot Strait:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#comment-628072

KenB · « **Reply #30 on:** August 03, 2022, 04:18:03 PM »

Quote from: Jim Hunt on August 02, 2022, 11:43:21 PM

Still no CIS coverage of Peel Sound

However things look like they may be about to open up through the Bellot Strait:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#comment-628072

Indeed, I'm afraid my guess for the second half of Aug. is going to be too late by as much as a week. Just to check, though: I'm assuming that even though the CIS charts still don't cover the entirety of route 6, we're really just waiting for the Bellot Strait to open - everything else is pretty obviously open at this point. Route 4 seems like it might be the next to open.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #31 on:** August 03, 2022, 04:40:17 PM »

Quote from: KenB on August 03, 2022, 04:18:03 PM

I'm assuming that even though the CIS charts still don't cover the entirety of route 6, we're really just waiting for the Bellot Strait to open.

I think they do now cover all of route 6, but not yet all of 3,4 or 5.

There is I suppose a slim chance that somewhere along the Beaufort Sea coast might get "pinched" by the time Bellot and thereabouts open up?

KenB · « **Reply #32 on:** August 04, 2022, 03:20:05 AM »

Just in time, a nice clear shot of the Bellot from WV:

phelan · « **Reply #33 on:** August 04, 2022, 08:01:08 PM »

I'm not sure how to post pics, but looking at Worldview and Aluminium's animation in the melting thread, isn't route 3 open?

EDIT: I mean route 4. Hard to tell them apart sometimes. Isn't route 4 open?

KenB · « **Reply #34 on:** August 04, 2022, 09:30:02 PM »

Quote from: phelan on August 04, 2022, 08:01:08 PM

I'm not sure how to post pics, but looking at Worldview and Aluminium's animation in the melting thread, isn't route 3 open?

EDIT: I mean route 4. Hard to tell them apart sometimes. Isn't route 4 open?

I think not, at least as of yesterday's CIS map (below). Route 4 goes around Somerset Island to the North rather than running south of it through the Bellot. Right now that passage still shows up as blocked.

Update: I'm adding a nice WV shot of the area in question from today. Looks - I dunno - slushy?

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #35 on:** August 04, 2022, 10:49:54 PM »

Quote from: KenB on August 04, 2022, 09:30:02 PM

Looks - I dunno - slushy?

The Bellot Strait is still the fly in the <= 6/10 concentration ointment. Nevertheless an adventurous "pleasure craft" is going to investigate:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/06/the-northwest-passage-in-2022/#Aug-04

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #36 on:** August 04, 2022, 11:20:44 PM »

STOP PRESS!!

The CIS started coverage of Peel Sound this evening (UTC). With the benefit of the latest charts I hereby declare the NWP "open for small craft" via route 4.

Albeit only just:

be cause · « **Reply #37 on:** August 05, 2022, 12:22:12 AM »

Based primarily on the rapid snow melt I predicted 'early opening' early June .. it may be my only accurate one of the season

.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #38 on:** August 05, 2022, 12:26:50 AM »

However bear in mind that when it comes to sea ice theory and practice don't always coincide. , Here is a very recent example of some allegedly 2/10 ice on routes 3/4:

KenB · « **Reply #39 on:** August 05, 2022, 02:10:10 AM »

Quote from: Jim Hunt on August 05, 2022, 12:26:50 AM

However bear in mind that when it comes to sea ice theory and practice don't always coincide. , Here is a very recent example of some allegedly 2/10 ice on routes 3/4:

Well, that looks anything but "slushy" to me, but congrats to all early-August voters. I didn't find anyone who claimed to vote for route 4, though.

interstitial · « **Reply #40 on:** August 05, 2022, 09:58:32 AM »

If the Northwest passage is considered "open" I strongly disagree with your criteria.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #41 on:** August 05, 2022, 11:23:22 AM »

It's a bit late now for this year Interstitial!

What objective criteria do you suggest that we adopt next year?

Bear in mind that two cruise ships have already voyaged through the CAA, and a "pleasure craft" is heading for Bellot Strait as we speak.

They took a look at Route 4, but this is the sort of thing they discovered there and hence they thought better of it:

interstitial · « **Reply #42 on:** August 06, 2022, 06:04:11 AM »

I don't see an ice free path. I am confused by the claim it is clear.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #43 on:** August 06, 2022, 11:34:46 AM »

It's not an "ice free path". Although the link to the original document is now broken, the CIS (used to) consider 6/10 concentration as "navigable" with care.

Higher concentrations than that have been "navigated" successfully in extremis!

oren · « **Reply #44 on:** August 06, 2022, 11:35:11 AM »

I know this is not considered a reliable source due to satellite resolution and artifacts, but still the NWP seems to be very open today.

Also the main channel is IMHO still slated to fully open later this season.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #45 on:** August 06, 2022, 11:41:31 AM »

According to on site intelligence Bellot Strait is still a "choke point" on route 6.

Nobody's looking at Barrow Strait at the moment:

Brigantine · « **Reply #46 on:** August 06, 2022, 12:47:41 PM »

Quote from: Jim Hunt on August 04, 2022, 11:20:44 PM

STOP PRESS!!

The CIS started coverage of Peel Sound this evening (UTC). With the benefit of the latest charts I hereby declare the NWP "open for small craft" via route 4.

Albeit only just:

CIS is showing a pinch

EDIT: But not yesterday. So quite right, August 4 was open.