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Stephan

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2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 08, 2023, 05:57:25 PM »
I open this thread for the documentation of weekly and monthly Mauna Loa CO2 averages. For those who haven't followed the 2022 thread it is important to notice that at the moment these data are collected at Mauna Kea due to the actual eruption activity of the Mauna Loa volcano. Nevertheless I won't change the thread's name as I expect that after the volcano has stopped NOAA will return to its original location.
All weekly values come from NOAA's site: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
The monthly averages come from: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html
Individual daily and hourly results can be found here: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

Week beginning on January 01, 2023:     419.31 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               417.55 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           394.96 ppm
Last updated: January 08, 2023

The annual increase last week has been quite low (1.76 ppm), much lower than the 10 y average of 2.44 ppm/a. All days showed very stable measurements with a small fluctuation.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2023, 03:39:56 PM »
Another weekend is almost over - here is the latest from Mauna Kea laboratory on CO2 levels. The links to NOAA's website are presented in my first post.

Week beginning on January 08, 2023:     419.58 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                418.07 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             395.57 ppm
Last updated: January 15, 2023

There has been a smooth increase since last week. One year ago this increase was a little higher, therefore the annual increase has reduced to 1.51 ppm. It is much lower than the 10 y average of 2.40 ppm/a.
If you look at the daily values you will find a strong deviation from the smooth trend of the last weeks. Therefore we shouldn't take this average too seriously.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2023, 04:14:22 PM »
Another weekend is almost over - here is the latest from Mauna Kea laboratory on CO2 levels. The links to NOAA's website are presented in my first post of this thread.

This week's values are unusable because recording stopped on Jan 17.

Hopefully next Sunday I have more informative news...
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Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2023, 11:59:54 AM »
Any idea when Met Office plan to publish their CO2 forecast for 2023, and their analysis of the 2022 forecast? They used to do it around January 10-15, but there's nothing yet, and we are getting close to the end of the month...  :-\
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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2023, 02:43:21 PM »
Any idea when Met Office plan to publish their CO2 forecast for 2023, and their analysis of the 2022 forecast? They used to do it around January 10-15, but there's nothing yet, and we are getting close to the end of the month...  :-\

Hah, forget about it! They published it on January 26.  ;D https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/forecasts/co2-forecast
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crandles

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2023, 03:55:56 PM »
Seems worth including these bits of above here
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/forecasts/co2-forecast

Quote
We forecast the annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa to be 1.97 ± 0.52 parts per million (ppm) higher in 2023 than in 2022. As a result, we forecast the 2023 annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa to be 420.2 ± 0.5 ppm (Figure 1). This will be the first time in the Keeling Curve record that the annual mean CO2 level has exceeded 420 ppm. We also forecast the global annual mean CO2 concentration to be 419.2 ppm.

Month   Forecast CO2 concentration (ppm)
January_____   419.5
February____   420.3
March______   420.8
April_______   422.3
May________   423.3
June_______   422.6
July________   420.6
August______   418.7
September___   417.1
October_____   417.4
November____   419.1
December____   420.5

Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2023, 04:00:40 PM »
Mauna Kea lab CO2 measurements are back.
Here is the latest weekly average.

Week beginning on January 22, 2023:     419.73 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                418.90 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            395.72 ppm
Last updated: January 29, 2023

The annual increase is at 0.83 ppm, the lowest value since I follow the data.
NOAA has also filled the gap that was present last Sunday.
The last week saw a quick up and down after an almost constant value the week before.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2023, 04:21:56 PM »
Sunday evening in Germany - time to give all of you an update on Mauna Kea CO2 concentrations.

Week beginning on January 29, 2023:     419.81 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                419.26 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            396.20 ppm
Last updated: February 04, 2023

The annual increase of 0.55 ppm is even lower than last week. These values look more like those of the 1960s.
Apart from larger variations on Feb 03 the hourly and daily values have been quite stable.
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2023, 04:42:57 AM »
Sunday evening in Germany - time to give all of you an update on Mauna Kea CO2 concentrations.
......

The annual increase of 0.55 ppm is even lower than last week. These values look more like those of the 1960s.
Apart from larger variations on Feb 03 the hourly and daily values have been quite stable.
If I recall correctly, the annual weekly increase has been shrinking for about a year now, and continues to shrink. Given that the global economy has ramped up from its pandemic driven slump, and looking at all Gerontocrat's charts of fossil fuel consumption, the increase seems way too small. What's going on?

oren

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2023, 06:40:14 AM »
I keep thinking the recent numbers have to do with the move to Mauna Kea, just because they are outside the norm we've seen.
Could the longer term drop in growth rates be related to the long La Nina?

Garabaldi

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2023, 08:29:29 AM »
'Given that the global economy has ramped up from its pandemic driven slump' - as an economist rather than a physical science, I think you have this the wrong way around, CO2 emissions are a better measure of production than economic indicators such as GDP. I believe the trend says more about where the global economy is really rather than any great change in CO2 efficiencies.

Garabaldi

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2023, 09:23:20 AM »
I just checked the another economic indicator that is often seen as more accurate then GDP, the Baltic dry index, which measures shipping volumes, it supports the economy is not rebounding story https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

crandles

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2023, 12:06:19 PM »
 2022   1  23  2022.0616    419.13  6           416.04   
  2022   1  30  2022.0808    419.19  7           416.89   
  2022   2   6  2022.1000    418.38  6           417.04   
  2022   2  13  2022.1192    419.76  7           416.59   
  2022   2  20  2022.1384    419.62  7           416.30   
  2022   2  27  2022.1575    419.20  7           417.68   
  2022   3   6  2022.1767    418.51  7           417.20   
  2022   3  13  2022.1959    418.35  6           417.51   
  2022   3  20  2022.2151    418.18  7           417.81   
  2022   3  27  2022.2342    420.37  7           417.41

Part of the current low values perhaps seems to just be a seasonal change from last year. 419 values early in period shown seem high compared to 2021 comparatives shown to rise more steadily.

kassy

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2023, 05:59:44 PM »
Quote
Two good youtube channels.

Ranman99 don´t add random spam into threads.
Post removed.
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2023, 12:41:04 AM »
2022   1  23  2022.0616    419.13  6           416.04   
  2022   1  30  2022.0808    419.19  7           416.89   
  2022   2   6  2022.1000    418.38  6           417.04   
  2022   2  13  2022.1192    419.76  7           416.59   
  2022   2  20  2022.1384    419.62  7           416.30   
  2022   2  27  2022.1575    419.20  7           417.68   
  2022   3   6  2022.1767    418.51  7           417.20   
  2022   3  13  2022.1959    418.35  6           417.51   
  2022   3  20  2022.2151    418.18  7           417.81   
  2022   3  27  2022.2342    420.37  7           417.41

Part of the current low values perhaps seems to just be a seasonal change from last year. 419 values early in period shown seem high compared to 2021 comparatives shown to rise more steadily.
Some days it feels as if my brain's not in high gear.
I don't understand this chart.
Thank you Garibaldi for your alternative economic indicators. I need to think about this some more. Shutting up now and leaving the thread for those qualified to post  ;D

Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2023, 08:30:26 PM »
Adding my opinion to this discussion:
Please find my excel sheet on CO2 of the last two years.
Column A: month (a)
Column B: monthly average (ppm)
Column F: annual increase (ppm/a)
Column G: long-term linear trend line of the annual increase (ppm/a).

Please not that one year after a higher than trend-line increase (orange coloured) the increase rate is lower (blue coloured). The red arrows show the relation. If there was a lower than average increase rate (blue coloured) one year later the annual increase rate is higher than the long-term trend line (orange coloured). The relation is indicated by a green arrow.

This must not necessarily be the only reason for the low annual increase rate of Jan 2023, but at least for the last two years the relation is obvious.

See attached table.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2023, 08:36:37 PM by Stephan »
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2023, 09:05:02 PM »
The latest monthly average of Mauna Loa CO2 has been published by NOAA.

January 2023:       419.47 ppm
January 2022:       418.19 ppm
January 2013:           395.55 ppm
Last updated: Feb 06, 2023

The annual increase of 1.28 ppm/a is the lowest since March 2022 (see my previous post) and it is much lower than the 10 y average of 2.39 ppm/a and also by 1.18 ppm/a below the long-term linear trend line which says that the increase rate in Jan 2023 should be at 2.46 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 to the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. January 2023 is at 128.3 compared to that index.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2023, 09:49:42 PM »
& here is the graph - a bit late
Plus the global CO2 graph

click to enlarge
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2023, 04:41:57 PM »
Thank you for the graphs.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2023, 04:45:57 PM »
Sunday evening - a new update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on February 05, 2023:     420.26 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 418.57 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             396.84 ppm
Last updated: February 12, 2023

The annual increase of 1.69 ppm/a is higher than the last weeks, but still lower than the 10 y average of 2.34 ppm/a. Last week the values rose day by day. The intra-day variations were larger than usual, but none of the days was marked as "unavailable".
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2023, 09:54:02 PM »
Here is the latest weekly CO2 average from Mauna Kea (NOAA).

Week beginning on February 12, 2023:     420.82 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 419.62 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              397.32 ppm
Last updated: February 19, 2023

The annual increase is down to 1.20 ppm, almost half of the 10 y average of 2.35 ppm/a.
Until Feb 15 the daily values increased, but since Feb 16 they fell by about 1 ppm, which in average results in this relatively low annual increase rate. The values themselves were quite stable.
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I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2023, 12:35:58 AM »
Any hypotheses regarding the cause of the pretty consistently low year-over-year delta CO2 concentration values? Sounds a little too good to be true that there’s a sustained 50% lower increase YoY compared to last year with the current state of energy production and usage, but I’m not an expert by any means so maybe I’m missing something. Per the recently posted data it looks like February has some sort of historical lull trend, but I have no idea if there are climactic factors at play, or if the globe really just doesn’t pump out that much excess CO2 in February.

dnem

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2023, 01:48:47 AM »
Could the volcano and the change in collection protocols have anything to do with it?

Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2023, 05:13:01 AM »
Any hypotheses regarding the cause of the pretty consistently low year-over-year delta CO2 concentration values?

Comparing the January monthly average (419.47 ppm) with the forecast made by Met Office (419.5±0.5 ppm), we were within 0.03 ppm of the expected value. We seem to be on course to perfectly meet the forecasted value for February (420.3±0.5 ppm), too.

The low yearly increases are an artifact from last year: CO2 levels in January-February 2022 were well above expectations, while March-May were well below. We should see a return back to high apparent year-to-year rises in the coming weeks (maybe starting the last week of February, maybe starting the first week of March), for that very reason.


That said, we are still in La Niña conditions (for the third year in a row), and CO2 levels are expected to rise slower under those circumstances. There is a chance that we will return to El Niño by authumn 2023, which favours above-average CO2 rise. These are natural variations on top of the overall long-term trend: The yearly increases we have seen since 2020 were among the highest ever observed under La Niña conditions.

The blue line is the expected curve, once accounting for CO2 emissions plus El Niño/La Niña. (Note: The diagram contains a typo, it should say "Projected 2023 CO2 rise".)
« Last Edit: February 20, 2023, 05:33:37 AM by Renerpho »
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oren

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #24 on: February 20, 2023, 07:04:08 AM »
Thanks for the explanation,  Renerpho. This finally clears up the issue.

Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2023, 04:13:19 PM »
My weekly update on Mauna Kea CO2 is ready.

Week beginning on February 19, 2023:     419.94 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 419.53 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             397.35 ppm
Last updated: February 26, 2023

The annual increase of 0.41 ppm is the lowest I can remember since I started my weekly updates. But please do not take this weekly average too seriously. There has been a wild up and down throughout this week. Nevertheless only one day (Feb 21) has been "unavailable" due to too large fluctuations.
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Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2023, 06:53:36 PM »
The annual increase of 0.41 ppm is the lowest I can remember since I started my weekly updates.
What about the week starting March 20, 2022?
As I said in my previous post, around the beginning of March 2022, we switched from well above expected to well below expected CO2 values, and that week saw a yearly increase of only 0.37 ppm. That would be even lower (possibly negative), if the statistics had chosen to use the week starting March 18 or March 19, both of which had very low daily values, and getting rid of the return to normal values on the final day of the week (March 26).
« Last Edit: March 01, 2023, 07:01:48 PM by Renerpho »
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Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2023, 05:01:03 PM »
NOAA data
Scripps data
Met Office forecast for 2023

The official monthly average for February isn't out yet, but looking at the average of the daily values (420.46 ppm), we will probably end up slightly above the expected value of 420.3±0.5 ppm (but well within the uncertainty interval). This is despite very low weekly year-on-year increases, but as I explained in a previous post, that was to be expected.

What was also expected was that, at some time in late February or early March, we would switch from well below to well above year-to-year increases. Of course I couldn't foresee that we would see a spike in daily CO2 values leading to a new all-time record high (422.88 ppm).

This spike is within the usual high variability during northern hemisphere spring, but the timing is such that it coincides with a "trough" last year, so Stephen's next weekly update is bound to be different from those of the last few weeks. How different depends on what happens over the next three days...

Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

kassy

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2023, 06:20:07 PM »
Thanks for the extra info and the heads up. It will be interesting to see how this year develops.
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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #29 on: March 05, 2023, 02:22:10 PM »
Here is the latest weekly average on Mauna Kea CO2.
As Renerpho indicated, this weekly average looks differently from those of the past weeks.

Week beginning on February 26, 2023:     421.90 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 419.21 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              397.28 ppm
Last updated: March 04, 2023

The annual increase is much higher than the last weeks. With 2.69 ppm/a it is even above the 10 y average (2.46 ppm/a), and it has left the very low rates that we saw in February. The intra-day variations were much lower than last week. But a constant increase of the daily averages during the last week led to this significantly higher rate.

Feb 28 saw the highest ever measured CO2 concentration (422.88 ppm) since Keeling began his curve back in 1958...
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Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2023, 01:00:43 AM »
Feb 28 saw the highest ever measured CO2 concentration (422.88 ppm) since Keeling began his curve back in 1958...

1958 is a very weak lower bound, of course. We have not surpassed this level in the last 3.2 million years, and you have to go back to 4 million years BP before you see CO2 concentrations above 400 ppm outside of very brief spikes. (Source)

Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #31 on: March 07, 2023, 07:37:37 PM »
The February 2023 CO2 average has been published.

February 2023:       420.41 ppm
February 2022:       419.28 ppm
February 2013:          396.80 ppm
Last updated: Mar 05, 2023

No surprise that February 2023 has a low annual increase of 1.13 ppm which is much less than the 10 y average of 2.36 ppm/a. It is the lowest annual increase on a monthly basis since April 2011. It is also by 1.36 ppm/a below the long-term linear trend line which says that the increase rate in Feb 2023 should be at 2.49 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 to the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. February 2023 is at 124.1 compared to that index.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #32 on: March 08, 2023, 12:42:59 AM »
& Here is the graph plus the graph for Global CO2 to Dec 22

click to enlarge
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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #33 on: March 12, 2023, 04:45:30 PM »
The latest Mauna Kea on CO2 weekly average has been published:

Week beginning on March 05, 2023:     421.10 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             418.52 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         397.49 ppm
Last updated: March 12, 2023

The annual increase is 2.58 ppm. It is higher than the 10 y average of 2.36 ppm/a, even though on March 11 the daily value fell below 420 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #34 on: March 19, 2023, 05:08:44 PM »
Another weekend - another update on Mauna Kea CO2 weekly update:

Week beginning on March 12, 2023:     420.10 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             418.52 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         397.16 ppm
Last updated: March 19, 2023

The annual increase (1.58 ppm) is back below the 10 y average of 2.29 ppm/a. The past week showed very low intra- and inter-day variations.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #35 on: March 26, 2023, 07:36:17 PM »
The next weekend has passed, delivering another weekly Mauna Kea CO2 update.

Week beginning on March 19, 2023:     420.79 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:            417.96 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         397.80 ppm
Last updated: March 26, 2023

The annual increase of 2.83 ppm is back above the 10y average of 2.30 ppm/a. All days showed stable values and no large fluctuations.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #36 on: April 02, 2023, 04:12:42 PM »
Sunday afternoon in Germany - time for an update on Mauna Kea CO2 levels.

Week beginning on March 26, 2023:     421.56 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           420.19 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          398.20 ppm
Last updated: April 02, 2023

The annual increase of 1.37 ppm drops significantly and is below the 10 y average of 2.34 ppm/a. This is not due to a drop in CO2 last week (the values increased by 0.77 ppm), but the consequence of a massive increase one year ago (> 2.1 ppm). The intra-day variations increased in the last days significantly.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #37 on: April 06, 2023, 06:57:57 PM »
Please find the latest CO2 monthly average from NOAA.

March 2023:       421.00 ppm
March 2022:       418.81 ppm
March 2013:      397.43 ppm
Last updated: Apr 05, 2023

March 2023 has an annual increase of 2.19 ppm which is less than the 10 y average of 2.36 ppm/a. It is 0.30 ppm/a below the long-term linear trend line which says that the increase rate in March 2023 should be at 2.49 ppm/a.
March 2023 had the highest CO2 value that has been measured (0.01 ppm above the averages of May and June 2022, which both tied at 420.99 ppm).

I set an index of 100 to the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. March 2023 is at 124.3 compared to that index.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #38 on: April 06, 2023, 08:55:22 PM »
& here is the graph, plus Global CO2 to Jan 23.

Note how the linear trend lines in both graphs for total CO2 ppm increases look increasingly redundant.

Click images to enlarge
« Last Edit: April 06, 2023, 09:03:29 PM by gerontocrat »
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Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #39 on: April 07, 2023, 03:13:24 AM »
March 2023 has an annual increase of 2.19 ppm which is less than the 10 y average of 2.36 ppm/a. It is 0.30 ppm/a below the long-term linear trend line which says that the increase rate in March 2023 should be at 2.49 ppm/a.

This is assuming a purely linear trend, of course. Once you account for the effects of La Niña (as is done in the analysis done by MetOffice) the expected monthly average for March 2023 was 420.8 ppm, 0.2 ppm lower than the actual value of 421.0 ppm.

That is to say, the yearly increase was 0.2 ppm more than expected (or about 1 standard deviation above the mean).

Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Alexander555

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #40 on: April 07, 2023, 12:45:24 PM »
424,5 at the Hawaii station.

crandles

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #41 on: April 07, 2023, 02:58:19 PM »
424,5 at the Hawaii station.

423 is bad enough:

April 06:     423.01 ppm
April 05:     422.75 ppm
April 04:     422.74 ppm
April 03:     422.74 ppm
April 02:     422.54 ppm


Alexander555

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #42 on: April 08, 2023, 04:17:57 PM »
Looks like it was just a short peak.

Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #43 on: April 09, 2023, 07:30:48 PM »
It is Easter Sunday evening, and a new weekly Mauna Kea CO2 average is available.

It is the highest weekly average in recorded history.

Week beginning on April 02, 2023:     422.60 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           420.29 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       398.19 ppm
Last updated: April 09, 2023

The annual increase is at 2.31, slightly below to the 10 y average of 2.44 ppm/a. The intra-day fluctuations stayed at a high level, the inter-day differences were much smaller.
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Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #44 on: April 12, 2023, 02:47:35 AM »
NOAA data
Scripps data
Met Office forecast

Following their outage due to a volcanic eruption, measurements of CO2 by NOAA have resumed in early December, and Scripps have followed suit in early March. I finally got around to reincorporate the Scripps data into my charts. Here's the data as of today.

January and February have followed the Met Office forecast very closely. March was slightly higher, by 0.2 ppm, but still well within the uncertainty. The first third of April has looked similar so far, above the forecast by around 0.1 ppm.

Met Office has predicted a year-to-year rise of 1.97 ppm for 2023. So far, we're at 1.64 ppm, but there's reason to believe that the monthly rise in April and May will be well above 2 ppm (see previous discussion about the anomalously low CO2 values in March-May 2022).

Importantly though, the Met Office prediction relied on the expectation that 2023 will be a La Niña year, which we now know will not be the case. They predict a rise of 2.32 ppm if most of the year is at neutral SSTs. If an El Niño develops during the next few months then who knows where we'll land... The predicted yearly rise of 1.97 ppm would have been the highest ever seen under La Niña conditions.



Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #45 on: April 16, 2023, 08:32:58 PM »
Sunday evening again; time for an update of Mauna Kea CO2 weekly average.
It is the highest weekly average in recorded history  :-[

Week beginning on April 09, 2023:     422.89 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           419.90 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       397.93 ppm
Last updated: April 16, 2023

CO2 concentration rose by almost 3 ppm, faster than the 10 y average of 2.50 ppm/a.
The intra-day fluctuations remained high; the daily averages rose continuously.
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #46 on: April 23, 2023, 04:38:31 PM »
The latest Mauna Kea weekly CO2 average has been published. Once again it is the highest average in recorded history. :-[

Week beginning on April 16, 2023:     423.65 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           420.65 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        399.50 ppm
Last updated: April 23, 2023

The annual increase is 3.00 ppm, obviously higher than the 10 y average of 2.41 ppm/a. The highest value with almost 425 ppm was reached on April 17, since then the daily averages decreased a bit. Nevertheless I do expect an even higher daily average than that of April 17 in the next weeks.
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trm1958

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #47 on: April 25, 2023, 12:49:18 PM »
Quote
Nevertheless I do expect an even higher daily average than that of April 17 in the next weeks.
I thought the maximum was around late April, when the plants in the Northern Hemisphere start growing fastest?

crandles

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #48 on: April 25, 2023, 03:06:06 PM »
Quote
Nevertheless I do expect an even higher daily average than that of April 17 in the next weeks.
I thought the maximum was around late April, when the plants in the Northern Hemisphere start growing fastest?

Peak week can vary a bit e.g.

2022 peak week commenced 29 May
2021 peak week commenced 25 April
2020 peak week commenced 24 May
2019 peak week commenced 12 May
2018 peak week commenced 13 May

Not sure but perhaps as la Nina is converting to El Nino this may suggest a later peak this year. Even if that is not relevant/true, peak week is usually after week commencing 16 April.

(I have just used data from https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_weekly_mlo.txt different week periods may alter when the peak week is.)

Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #49 on: April 25, 2023, 08:57:21 PM »
The first ten days of April were in line with predictions, but then it has picked up. If the month ended today, the monthly average would be almost 3 standard deviations above the Met Office forecast for the "La Niña scenario". We have to see daily values consistently below 423 ppm for the rest of the month to change that.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.