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 Poll What will NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.25 million km2
1 (3.4%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
6 (20.7%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
6 (20.7%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
4 (13.8%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
5 (17.2%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
4 (13.8%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
1 (3.4%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
1 (3.4%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
1 (3.4%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: June 11, 2023, 09:15:40 PM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average  (Read 1367 times)

Juan C. García

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NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« on: June 01, 2023, 09:15:40 PM »
This is the NSIDC Poll for September Monthly Average. Not to be confused with the JAXA Daily Minimum Poll.

These are the NSIDC September Arctic Sea Ice Extent averages in 2000-2022 (in million km²):

Year      NSIDC ASIE
            (10^6 km2)
2000         6.25
2001         6.73
2002         5.83
2003         6.12
2004         5.98
2005         5.50
2006         5.86
2007         4.27
2008         4.69
2009         5.26
2010         4.87
2011         4.56
2012         3.57
2013         5.21
2014         5.22
2015         4.62
2016         4.53
2017         4.82
2018         4.79
2019         4.36
2020         4.00
2021         4.95
2022         4.90
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2023, 09:22:52 PM »
4.50-5.00 has the highest probability when looking at past results, but I went for 4.25-4.75 due to the increased export this year.

nadir

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2023, 09:46:04 PM »
It’s already a very warm year north of 65. Let’s say 4-4.5 as a start.

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2023, 10:01:26 PM »
I provisionally plump for 3.75 to 4.25.

But "The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 June 2023", which gives me time to perhaps change my mind before the poll closes..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

The Walrus

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2023, 10:06:40 PM »
4.50-5.00 has the highest probability when looking at past results, but I went for 4.25-4.75 due to the increased export this year.

I agree and went with the probability.

Freegrass

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2023, 03:09:19 AM »
4.50-5.00 has the highest probability when looking at past results, but I went for 4.25-4.75 due to the increased export this year.
I went for between 4.50 and 5.00 million km2. Just a little lower than the previous 2 years. Guessing we're gonna get a lot of clouds again during peak insolation. Somehow, I think that a more humid atmosphere is making it more cloudy in the Arctic.

And open water in the Laptev is slow to form this year.
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2023, 07:09:36 PM »
If sea ice extent losses from now to minimum are at the average of the last 10 years, then the NSIDC average extent for September will be 4.94 million km2 (the daily minimum 4.76 million km2).

However the developing El Nino that could be strong may have a big influence especially in late summer. Also North Atlantic ocean temperatures, both surface and at depth, are at record highs. Eventually (but who knows how long it takes?) some of that heat will infiltrate the Arctic.

So, on balance. I think the chances are more for the average to be lower than 4.96 than higher. I am dithering between 3.5 and 4.5. Maybe the ENSO update due on June 8 will help me to decide what to do.

But what do I know?
A repeat of 2012 could produce a 2.5 million km2 minimum, or a repeat of 1996 a 5.25 milliom minimum.

Another invitation to a humiliation, is what it is. Ho hum.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2023, 07:15:21 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2023, 10:00:03 PM »
I went for the 4.5 ± 0.25 M bin
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2023, 06:20:10 AM »
I went for the 4.5 ± 0.25 M bin
Same as you.

P.S. Around 15 hours to vote or change your vote.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2023, 10:02:38 PM »
Final result was 4.37 Mkm2, as calculated by Gero.
10 out of 29 voters (35%) got the correct bins, not great, but this one is difficult to predict.

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2023, 07:12:37 PM »
I luckily picked the correct bin in all of the three different polls  :)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2023, 07:13:40 PM »
Me too, somehow.