NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September Monthly Average

[Juan C. García]

This is the NSIDC Poll for September Monthly Average. Not to be confused with the JAXA Daily Minimum Poll.

These are the NSIDC September Arctic Sea Ice Extent averages in 2000-2022 (in million km²):

Year      NSIDC ASIE
            (10^6 km2)
2000         6.25
2001         6.73
2002         5.83
2003         6.12
2004         5.98
2005         5.50
2006         5.86
2007         4.27
2008         4.69
2009         5.26
2010         4.87
2011         4.56
2012         3.57
2013         5.21
2014         5.22
2015         4.62
2016         4.53
2017         4.82
2018         4.79
2019         4.36
2020         4.00
2021         4.95
2022         4.90

[oren]

4.50-5.00 has the highest probability when looking at past results, but I went for 4.25-4.75 due to the increased export this year.

[nadir]

It’s already a very warm year north of 65. Let’s say 4-4.5 as a start.

[gerontocrat]

I provisionally plump for 3.75 to 4.25.

But "The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 June 2023", which gives me time to perhaps change my mind before the poll closes..

[The Walrus]

4.50-5.00 has the highest probability when looking at past results, but I went for 4.25-4.75 due to the increased export this year.

I agree and went with the probability.

[Freegrass]

4.50-5.00 has the highest probability when looking at past results, but I went for 4.25-4.75 due to the increased export this year.

I went for between 4.50 and 5.00 million km2. Just a little lower than the previous 2 years. Guessing we're gonna get a lot of clouds again during peak insolation. Somehow, I think that a more humid atmosphere is making it more cloudy in the Arctic.

And open water in the Laptev is slow to form this year.

[gerontocrat]

If sea ice extent losses from now to minimum are at the average of the last 10 years, then the NSIDC average extent for September will be 4.94 million km2 (the daily minimum 4.76 million km2).

However the developing El Nino that could be strong may have a big influence especially in late summer. Also North Atlantic ocean temperatures, both surface and at depth, are at record highs. Eventually (but who knows how long it takes?) some of that heat will infiltrate the Arctic.

So, on balance. I think the chances are more for the average to be lower than 4.96 than higher. I am dithering between 3.5 and 4.5. Maybe the ENSO update due on June 8 will help me to decide what to do.

But what do I know?
A repeat of 2012 could produce a 2.5 million km2 minimum, or a repeat of 1996 a 5.25 milliom minimum.

Another invitation to a humiliation, is what it is. Ho hum.

[Stephan]

I went for the 4.5 ± 0.25 M bin

[Juan C. García]

I went for the 4.5 ± 0.25 M bin

Same as you.

P.S. Around 15 hours to vote or change your vote.

[oren]

Final result was 4.37 Mkm2, as calculated by Gero.
10 out of 29 voters (35%) got the correct bins, not great, but this one is difficult to predict.

[Stephan]

I luckily picked the correct bin in all of the three different polls 

[oren]

Me too, somehow.