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What will PIOMAS 2023 Arctic sea ice volume September average be?

Above 5.50 10^3 km^3
1 (3.3%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 10^3 km^3
2 (6.7%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 10^3 km^3
5 (16.7%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
5 (16.7%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 10^3 km^3
5 (16.7%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 10^3 km^3
8 (26.7%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 10^3 km^3
4 (13.3%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Under 3.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 30

Voting closed: June 11, 2023, 10:27:07 PM

Author Topic: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll  (Read 1306 times)

Juan C. García

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PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« on: June 01, 2023, 10:27:07 PM »
Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

I add a comparison against the 1979-2000 September Average. It is worrying to see that there are several years where we have less than half the ice, by volume.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Freegrass

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2023, 03:04:57 AM »
For volume, I went a little lower than the previous 2 years because of all the Fram export we had this year. So I picked between 4.25 and 4.75.
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

oren

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2023, 07:12:26 AM »
The possible outcomes are really all over the place in this one. I went for a conservative 4.50-5.00.

Renerpho

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2023, 03:04:55 PM »
3.75-4.25 it is.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Stephan

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2023, 10:01:50 PM »
I think it will end in the 4.25-4.75 kkm³ bin.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Richard Rathbone

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2023, 12:06:54 AM »
I think it will end in the 4.25-4.75 kkm³ bin.
This looks the most likely to me too. Not nailed on yet, but in the chasing pack rather than seriously challenging the lowest years.

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2023, 06:25:27 AM »
I think it will end in the 4.25-4.75 kkm³ bin.
This looks the most likely to me too. Not nailed on yet, but in the chasing pack rather than seriously challenging the lowest years.
I vote on this bin too.

P.S. Around 16 hours to vote or change your vote.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2023, 07:36:38 PM »
The final Sep avg was 4787 km3, as calculated by Gero. 7 out of 30 voters got the right bins. Most expected a lower result, but this season was a late bloomer.