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What will NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.25 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
2 (10.5%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
5 (26.3%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
9 (47.4%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
1 (5.3%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
1 (5.3%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
1 (5.3%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 19

Voting closed: August 11, 2023, 07:05:37 AM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll  (Read 1673 times)

Juan C. García

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NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« on: August 01, 2023, 07:05:37 AM »
This is the NSIDC Poll for September Monthly Average. Not to be confused with the JAXA Daily Minimum Poll.

These are the NSIDC September Arctic Sea Ice Extent averages in 2000-2022 (in million km²):

Year      NSIDC ASIE
            (10^6 km2)
2000         6.25
2001         6.73
2002         5.83
2003         6.12
2004         5.98
2005         5.50
2006         5.86
2007         4.27
2008         4.69
2009         5.26
2010         4.87
2011         4.56
2012         3.57
2013         5.21
2014         5.22
2015         4.62
2016         4.53
2017         4.82
2018         4.79
2019         4.36
2020         4.00
2021         4.95
2022         4.90
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2023, 07:24:25 AM »
Keeping my 4.25-4.75 vote for a 3rd time. We are not in 2012, 2020 territory, but I also think not in 2021, 2022 territory and not even 2017, 2018. Much depends on the trajectory within September, this poll is harder to pinpoint correctly.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2023, 07:38:13 AM »
I changed my vote one bin up, to 4.50-5.00 million km2. I think it is getting too late to have a change in the current trend.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2023, 07:54:17 AM »
I did not change my mind (4.25-4.75 M km²) compared to the previous polls.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2023, 05:51:36 PM »
Here is some one day NSIDC Exent data & graphs.

AS for JAXA extent data, July was another very average melt month. Nearly 80% of average sea ice extent losses from max to min is done, and average daily losses are now in swift decline. (1st image)

The arithmetical projection of the daily minimum is currently 4.71 million km2, while the graph (image 2) is slighty higher at 4.75 million (due to the plume of projections graph being influenced by the timing of each year's minimum). The range of the last 10 years outcomes (which now excludes 2012) is from around  4.25 to 5.15 million km2.

The current projection of the September average extent is 4.92 million km2 (3rd graph and Table).

I am plumping for a last minute modest increase in daily sea ice extent losses resulting in a September average of around 4.5 million km2, i.e. bin 4.25 to 4.75.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2023, 10:28:17 PM »
 Some data for the pollwatchers..

September average current estimate 4.46 million km2, 5th lowest in the satellite record.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2023, 03:36:36 PM »
And the result is.....

September average daily extent 4.37 million km2, 5th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 0.09 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.53 million km2 below the 2022 September average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2023, 09:41:57 PM »
Thanks, Gero.
Turns out 10 out of 19 voters got the result, >50%, though there was a definite upward bias in voting - or rather a downward surprise in the results.

jdallen

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Re: NSIDC 2023 Arctic SIE Sept. Monthly Avg. - August Poll
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2023, 11:17:46 PM »
Thanks, Gero.
Turns out 10 out of 19 voters got the result, >50%, though there was a definite upward bias in voting - or rather a downward surprise in the results.
It would appear our collective understanding has improved with time.
This space for Rent.