2024 Arctic Sea ice area & extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,966,128 KM2 as at 30-Apr-2024

- Area loss on this day 48k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.32 million km2, which is 0.10 million km2, 8.2% more than the 10 year average of 1.22 million km2.

- Area is at position #13 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),  of which 1 year(s) are before the year 2000

- Area is  19 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  49 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  576 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  671 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  356 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  85 k MORE than the 2010's Average
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On average 12.2% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  132 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.21 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT

Another month gone, so a look back at April.

April '24 Arctic monthly average sea ice extent was 13.40 million km2, 13th lowest in the satellite record, 0.38 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.12 million km2 more than the April'23 average.

During April the 365 day trailing average increased at a reducing rate, ending the month with small decreases, ending up by just 5k km2 in the month, 0.50 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.52 million km2 more than the record low of March '21. If sea ice change for the remainder of the year is at the 10 year average, the average will end the year with little change.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):

Here is another look back at April

April '24 Arctic monthly average sea ice area was 12.58 million km2, 16th lowest in the satellite record, 0.35 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.06 million km2 more than the April '23 average.

During April the 365 day trailing average increased marginally, up by just 5k km2 in the month, 0.31 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.57 million km2 more than the record low of February '21. If sea ice change for the remainder of the year is at the 10 year average, the average will increase by about 0.15 million km2 by the end of Dec '24.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,757,145 KM2 as at 01-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 21k, 29 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,654 k, which is 114 k, 7.4% more than the 10 year average of 1,540 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  32 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  11 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  29 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  176 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  521 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  562 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  296 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  40 k MORE than the 2010's Average
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On average 15.6% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 135 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.45 million km2, 1.27 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record
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N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,921,184 KM2 as at 01-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 45k, 5 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.36 million km2, which is 0.09 million km2, 7.5% more than the 10 year average of 1.27 million km2.

- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),  of which 1 year(s) are before the year 2000

- Area is  42 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  19 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  559 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  692 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  287 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  105 k MORE than the 2010's Average
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On average 12.7% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  131 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.22 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,723,012 KM2 as at 02-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 34k, 11 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 45k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,688 k, which is 102 k, 6.4% more than the 10 year average of 1,586 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  47 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  13 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  76 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  183 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  547 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  559 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  291 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  55 k MORE than the 2010's Average
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On average 16.1% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 134 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.46 million km2, 1.28 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 10th lowest in the satellite record
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N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,885,557 KM2 as at 02-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 36k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.40 million km2, which is 0.08 million km2, 6.1% more than the 10 year average of 1.32 million km2.

- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),  of which 1 year(s) are before the year 2000

- Area is  44 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  5 k MORE than 2022,
- Area is  525 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  729 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  238 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  137 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 13.2% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  130 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.23 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,655,970 KM2 as at 03-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 67k, 23 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,755 k, which is 126 k, 7.7% more than the 10 year average of 1,630 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  100 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  82 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  103 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  156 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  539 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  512 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  315 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  37 k MORE than the 2010's Average
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On average 16.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 133 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.44 million km2, 1.26 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record
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N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,851,429 KM2 as at 03-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 34k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.43 million km2, which is 0.07 million km2, 4.9% more than the 10 year average of 1.36 million km2.

- Area is at position #13 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),  of which 1 year(s) are before the year 2000

- Area is  41 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  3 k MORE than 2022,
- Area is  492 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  778 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  197 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  169 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 13.7% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  129 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.25 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,603,366 KM2 as at 04-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 53k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,808 k, which is 138 k, 8.3% more than the 10 year average of 1,670 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  169 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  147 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  140 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  180 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  516 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  522 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  294 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  36 k MORE than the 2010's Average
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On average 17.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 132 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.42 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record
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N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,802,824 KM2 as at 04-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 49k, 3 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.48 million km2, which is 0.07 million km2, 4.9% more than the 10 year average of 1.41 million km2.

- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),  of which 1 year(s) are before the year 2000

- Area is  46 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  29 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  451 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  805 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  178 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  180 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 14.2% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  128 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.24 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,558,460 KM2 as at 05-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 45k, 4 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,853 k, which is 142 k, 8.3% more than the 10 year average of 1,710 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  219 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  160 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  149 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  160 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  517 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  519 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  271 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  44 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 17.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 131 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.42 million km2, 1.24 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,753,791 KM2 as at 05-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 49k, 6 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.53 million km2, which is 0.08 million km2, 5.2% more than the 10 year average of 1.45 million km2.

- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),  of which 1 year(s) are before the year 2000

- Area is  51 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  66 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  391 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  807 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  177 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  187 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 14.6% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  127 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.24 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
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N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,538,055 KM2 as at 06-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 20k, 28 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,873 k, which is 114 k, 6.5% more than the 10 year average of 1,759 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  227 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  157 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  173 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  169 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  561 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  552 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  287 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  72 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 17.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 130 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.45 million km2, 1.27 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 9th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,708,844 KM2 as at 06-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 45k, 10 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.57 million km2, which is 0.09 million km2, 5.7% more than the 10 year average of 1.49 million km2.

- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  59 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  98 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  351 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  805 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  185 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  185 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 14.9% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  126 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.23 million km2, 0.98 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Looks like no JAXA data today

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,655,064 KM2 as at 07-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 54k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.63 million km2, which is 0.10 million km2, 6.8% more than the 10 year average of 1.52 million km2.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  74 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  139 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  324 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  775 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  193 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  172 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 15.3% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  125 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.21 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,529,369 KM2 as at 08-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 11k, 63 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 74k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,882 k, which is 6 k, 0.3% less than the 10 year average of 1,887 k.

- Extent is 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  73 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  66 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  270 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  325 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  629 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  747 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  279 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  180 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 19.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 128 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.57 million km2, 1.39 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,593,249 KM2 as at 08-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 62k, 22 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.69 million km2, which is 0.12 million km2, 8.0% more than the 10 year average of 1.56 million km2.

- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  103 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  171 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  300 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  726 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  208 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  153 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 15.7% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  124 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.19 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,512,083 KM2 as at 09-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 17k, 43 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,899 k, which is 48 k, 2.5% less than the 10 year average of 1,947 k.

- Extent is 13th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  23 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  38 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  292 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  369 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  651 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  829 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  272 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  218 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 19.8% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 127 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.61 million km2, 1.43 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,545,130 KM2 as at 09-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 48k, 2 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.74 million km2, which is 0.13 million km2, 7.9% more than the 10 year average of 1.61 million km2.

- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  122 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  160 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  299 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  703 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  203 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  151 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 16.2% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  123 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.19 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):

Meaningful sea ice area loss has commenced in the High Arctic, while slowing down in the Peripheral seas

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,453,319 KM2 as at 10-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 59k, 0 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,958 k, which is 48 k, 2.4% less than the 10 year average of 2,006 k.

- Extent is 13th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  26 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  50 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  304 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  381 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  627 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  820 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  220 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  227 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 20.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 126 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.61 million km2, 1.43 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,494,586 KM2 as at 10-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 50k, 5 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.79 million km2, which is 0.12 million km2, 7.4% more than the 10 year average of 1.67 million km2.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  134 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  126 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  321 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  714 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  202 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  151 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 16.7% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  122 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.19 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):

The 1st table shows sea ice area losses switching from the Peripheral Seas to the High Arctic.
It also shows the first sea ice extent loss for this melting season in the High Arctic recorded by NSIDC using 25x25km(625km2) resolution. I expect the AMSR2 data shows more and earlier sea ice extent losses, as it uses 3.125x3.125km resolution.

the next image shows how recent sea ice area losses in the Greenland Sea have eliminated the very high gains seen late in the freezing season.

The next image shows how the impressive sea ice area losses in the Okhotsk have continued unabated. The last image shows that these early losses are likely to lead to a record high percentage of open water this year despite the very high maximum at the end of the freezing season.

I haven't figured out to show some sort of volatility /extremes index, but my guess is that the Okhotsk, at least for this sea, is at some sort of record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,360,928 KM2 as at 11-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 92k, 40 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 52k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,050 k, which is 7 k, 0.4% less than the 10 year average of 2,058 k.

- Extent is 13th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  93 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  75 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  267 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  342 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  549 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  788 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  258 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  192 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 20.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 125 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.57 million km2, 1.39 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,449,295 KM2 as at 11-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 45k, 15 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.83 million km2, which is 0.11 million km2, 6.3% more than the 10 year average of 1.72 million km2.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  124 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  85 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  340 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  751 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  197 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  157 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 17.3% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  121 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.21 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,282,539 KM2 as at 12-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 78k, 20 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,129 k, which is 13 k, 0.6% more than the 10 year average of 2,115 k.

- Extent is 13th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  115 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  127 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  187 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  321 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  494 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  794 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  263 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  179 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 21.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 124 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.55 million km2, 1.37 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,393,696 KM2 as at 12-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 56k, 6 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.89 million km2, which is 0.10 million km2, 5.7% more than the 10 year average of 1.79 million km2.

- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  130 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  51 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  343 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  788 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  201 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  158 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 17.9% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  120 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.21 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,223,426 KM2 as at 13-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 59k, 7 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 52k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,188 k, which is 20 k, 0.9% more than the 10 year average of 2,167 k.

- Extent is 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  125 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  158 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  129 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  327 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  501 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  852 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  286 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  173 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 22.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 123 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.54 million km2, 1.36 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,339,480 KM2 as at 13-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 54k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 1.94 million km2, which is 0.10 million km2, 5.1% more than the 10 year average of 1.85 million km2.

- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  136 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  35 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  366 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  817 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  188 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  162 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 18.5% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  119 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.22 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Stephan]

I added the monthly extent value for April 2024 into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2024) NSIDC April extent is now at 14.50 M km². April 2024 had an average extent of 14.13 M km², which is 0.37 M km² below that long-term average.
This month's value was again above the long-term linear trend line. The difference of the actual month from that trend line is +0.81 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this April should have been at 13.32 M km²).

The slope of the long-term linear trend line became again flatter by two digits (-0.0517 → -0.0515).

See attached graph, click to enlarge it.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,144,376 KM2 as at 14-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 79k, 16 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,267 k, which is 37 k, 1.6% more than the 10 year average of 2,230 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  154 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  170 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  74 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  400 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  487 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  851 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  315 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  146 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 22.6% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 122 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.52 million km2, 1.35 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,286,699 KM2 as at 14-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 53k, 12 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 65k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 2.00 million km2, which is 0.08 million km2, 4.3% more than the 10 year average of 1.91 million km2.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  107 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  43 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  379 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  857 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  160 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  174 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 19.2% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  118 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.23 million km2, 0.98 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,085,850 KM2 as at 15-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 59k, 12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,325 k, which is 48 k, 2.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,277 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  155 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  163 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  43 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  449 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  518 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  823 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  284 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  134 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 23.1% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 121 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.51 million km2, 1.34 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

No updates from NSIDC today

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,032,105 KM2 as at 16-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 54k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,379 k, which is 43 k, 1.9% more than the 10 year average of 2,336 k.

- Extent is 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  129 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  187 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  4 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  482 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  544 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  834 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  232 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  141 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 23.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 120 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.52 million km2, 1.34 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,172,499 KM2 as at 16-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 63k, 0 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 2.11 million km2, which is 0.07 million km2, 3.5% more than the 10 year average of 2.04 million km2.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  68 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  80 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  418 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  855 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  85 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  186 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 20.5% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  116 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.24 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):

Once again we see very low High Arctic sea ice area loss (High Arctic sea ice area 25th lowest in the 46 year satellite record), and higher Peripheral Seas ice area losses (sea ice area 8th lowest).

[Stephan]

Evaluation of sea ice area change May 1- May 16 relative area wise.
The losses are sorted from low to high losses.
Almost no change in
ESS   + 1%
CAB   - 1%
LAP    - 1%
CHUK - 2%
slight losses in
BAF    - 5%
BEAU  - 5%
CAA    - 5%
HUD    - 9%
medium losses in
KAR   - 12%
BAR   - 14%
GRØ  - 16%
St.L.  - 19%
The leaders are
BER   - 48%
OKH  - 54%

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,993,115 KM2 as at 17-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 39k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,418 k, which is 29 k, 1.2% more than the 10 year average of 2,389 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  77 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  209 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  0 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  530 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  572 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  848 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  185 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  160 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 24.3% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 119 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.53 million km2, 1.35 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,123,094 KM2 as at 17-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 49k, 15 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 2.16 million km2, which is 0.06 million km2, 2.7% more than the 10 year average of 2.10 million km2.

- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  27 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  99 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  464 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  851 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  37 k LESS than 2012
- Area is  198 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 21.1% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  115 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.26 million km2, 1.01 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,933,931 KM2 as at 18-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 59k, 4 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,477 k, which is 33 k, 1.4% more than the 10 year average of 2,444 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  104 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  188 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  11 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  520 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  559 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  830 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  232 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  155 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 24.8% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 118 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.53 million km2, 1.35 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 13th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,090,743 KM2 as at 18-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 32k, 35 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 2.19 million km2, which is 0.02 million km2, 1.0% more than the 10 year average of 2.17 million km2.

- Area is at position #15 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  31 k MORE than 2023,
- Area is  87 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  513 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  881 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  14 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  229 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 21.8% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  114 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.29 million km2, 1.04 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 15th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,849,701 KM2 as at 19-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 84k, 30 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,561 k, which is 64 k, 2.6% more than the 10 year average of 2,498 k.

- Extent is 9th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  163 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  193 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  49 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  476 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  527 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  808 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  267 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  128 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 25.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 117 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.50 million km2, 1.32 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  11,045,508 KM2 as at 19-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 45k, 20 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 65k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 2.24 million km2, which is 0.00 million km2, 0.1% more than the 10 year average of 2.23 million km2.

- Area is at position #15 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  48 k MORE than 2023,
- Area is  74 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  567 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  893 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  22 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  243 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 22.4% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  113 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.31 million km2, 1.06 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 15th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,794,976 KM2 as at 20-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 55k, 1 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,616 k, which is 62 k, 2.4% more than the 10 year average of 2,554 k.

- Extent is 9th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  157 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  200 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  32 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  490 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  536 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  805 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  258 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  134 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 25.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 116 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.50 million km2, 1.32 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  10,984,635 KM2 as at 20-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 61k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 2.30 million km2, which is 0.00 million km2, 0.0% less than the 10 year average of 2.30 million km2.

- Area is at position #14 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  66 k MORE than 2023,
- Area is  91 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  602 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  885 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  26 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  242 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 23.1% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  112 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.31 million km2, 1.07 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 15th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,728,351 KM2 as at 21-May-2024

- Extent loss on this day 67k, 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,683 k, which is 76 k, 2.9% more than the 10 year average of 2,607 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  170 k LESS than 2023,
- Extent is  228 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  25 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  514 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  519 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  777 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  267 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  122 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 26.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 115 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.49 million km2, 1.31 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  10,925,574 KM2 as at 21-May-2024

- Area loss on this day 59k, 0 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 2.36 million km2, which is 0.00 million km2, 0.0% less than the 10 year average of 2.36 million km2.

- Area is at position #14 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  76 k MORE than 2023,
- Area is  96 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  629 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  883 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  33 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  242 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 23.6% of Area losses from maximum to minimum done, and  111 days to the average date of the minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.31 million km2, 1.07 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 15th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge