Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024

[vox_mundi]

Hurricane Waves Hitting Americas Grow 20% per Decade: Study
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-hurricane-americas-decade.html



The U.S., Mexico and countries in the Caribbean are being battered by hurricane-induced ocean waves that have grown in areal size by 80% over the past 40 years, a new study has found.

The first global trend study of its kind, led by Hohai University in China, investigated the long-term changes in both the height and surface area coverage of global tropical cyclone ocean surface waves since 1979. Published in Nature Communications, the study found the coverage area of ocean waves generated by tropical cyclones increased by nearly 20% (167,000 km2, about the size of Florida State) per decade in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Globally, the area of ocean waves increased by 6% per decade from 1979 to 2022. The maximum height of ocean waves caused by tropical cyclones grew by 3% per decade.

"The rapid growth of tropical cyclone waves over recent decades is extremely worrying given their immense danger to communities, businesses and ecosystems. Our results show that the threat from their waves is escalating fast across the globe.

... Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic and East Pacific or known as typhoons in the West Pacific, are rapidly spinning storms that form over warm ocean waters in tropical regions. As tropical cyclones move across the ocean, their strong winds stir up large waves from the storm's center.

The highest tropical cyclone-induced ocean wave height ever recorded (defined as the mean height of the highest one-third of waves measured from trough to crest) was 24 m, caused by Typhoon Krosa in 2007 in the West Pacific.

In addition to wave heights and area coverage rising, the study also found that the total wave energy produced by tropical cyclones has increased by 9% per decade globally. The largest increase of 30% per decade was found in the East Pacific and North Atlantic.

... The researchers anticipate that ocean wave size (defined by the overall height and the footprint area) is likely to substantially increase in the future due to a combination of factors, including tropical cyclone intensity, size, and translation speed (how fast tropical cyclones move across the Earth's surface). The authors suggest more research is needed to understand the multiple effects of global warming on extreme wave height.

Jian Shi et al, Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves, Nature Communications (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43532-4

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Observational Evidence of Overlooked Downwelling Induced by Tropical Cyclones In the Open Ocean
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-51016-0

Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause severe natural hazards and drive intense upper ocean cooling through a series of oceanic and atmospheric physical processes, including vertical mixing and upwelling. Among these processes, TC-induced warming of near-surface waters in the open ocean has rarely been noted. This study provides a detailed analysis of upper ocean responses to 30 TC events observed by two buoys in the western North Pacific between 2016 and 2021. Supplemented with numerical experiments, we suggest that downwelling frequently occurs at the periphery of upwelling regions (around the radius of the 34 knot wind speed) following the passage of a TC. Downwelling is identified via pronounced warm anomalies under a shallow mixed layer depth, and its dynamics are attributed to negative wind stress curl and current-induced convergence. These findings highlight the important role played by TC-induced downwelling and offer insights for reconsidering the influence of TCs on biogeochemical processes.

[morganism]

Long termers are saying La Nina gonna be back by end of hurricane season 2024, and gonna have effect.

[gerontocrat]

Mauritius & Des Galets look like geeting a wallop Jan 15-16.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0524prog.txt
FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TRACK SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, THE TRACK
BEGINS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
REORIENT TO A MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48,
TC 05S WILL BE FIRMLY SET UPON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE RIDGE
COMPLETES IS REORIENTATION PHASE, AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN
LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS AROUND TAU 96, THEN CONTINUE INTO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OPTIMUM FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE LLCC
FULLY CONSOLIDATES, WHICH IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY. OPTIMUM
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT LEAST 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS AFTER THAT, AND
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO AT LEAST 105 KNOTS, AND POTENTIAL
HIGHER, IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM REACHING THE MASCARENE
ARCHIPELAGO. A RAPID DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SSTS,
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL INDUCE A SLOW BUT
STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
POLEWARD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THROUGH THE FIRST
72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT NAVGEM, WHICH
IS FAR TO THE EAST, IS CONFINED TO A 105NM ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72.
HOWEVER, THE NAVGEM IS PULLING THE CONSENSUS MEAN EASTWARD SUCH
THAT IT MARKS THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS TO THE LEFT, OR WEST, OF THE
MEAN THROUGH TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF INTERMEDIATE FORECAST MARKS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER LA
REUNION. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS TRACKER THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD OUT,
PARTICULARLY IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION, WITH SPREAD INCREASING
TO AT LEAST 350NM BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GALWEM TRACKERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST REMAINS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN
THROUGH TAU 120, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY (RI), WITH
MULTIPLE RI AIDS TRIGGERING. ADDITIONALLY, THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE
RI PROBABILITIES ARE SET AT 95 PERCENT THROUGH TAU 60, PROVIDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48. ALL MEMBERS OF THE
CONSENSUS AGREE ON A LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY AFTER TAU 72,
FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING PHASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS ABOVE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE, CLOSE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RI GUIDANCE, THROUGH TAU 48,
THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE CONSENSUS MEAN THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

[MrGreeny]

Hello everyone,

For those living in the Cairns area, I hope you are safe from Jasper, albeit being a weakened Category II system it packed a punch. Repair efforts are still underway.

Moving on...

According to computer models it seems a low is forming just off the upper Queensland coast, over the next couple of days this system will start moving away from the Australian coast and out into the Coral Sea, from there it is unknown whether or not this system will take a turn towards the coast or if it will remain offshore.

+240hrs synoptics predicts that the potential Tropical Cyclone will hit the coast, however models can be inaccurate and this is just an estimation, it is nowhere near accurate at this time and I will continue to monitor the situation over the next coming days.

[MrGreeny]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 05U -

While 05U is expected to move away from the Queensland coast, over the next several days we will begin to see it start turning back and potentially strengthen to "Severe" status by the middle of next week.

GFS models now show the potential Tropical Cyclone definitely hitting the coast, however it remains uncertain where the impact zone will be.

For now the potential impact areas are: Miriam Vale, Turkey Beach, Gladstone, Rockhampton and Yeppoon. Last models show the Tropical Cyclone taking a sharp curve turn towards Townsville and the surrounding areas, while this model was outdated it is still possible for it to take a turn and make a hit to those areas but that remains unknown.

Will keep monitoring this throughout the next few days.

[Rodius]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 05U -

While 05U is expected to move away from the Queensland coast, over the next several days we will begin to see it start turning back and potentially strengthen to "Severe" status by the middle of next week.

GFS models now show the potential Tropical Cyclone definitely hitting the coast, however it remains uncertain where the impact zone will be.

For now the potential impact areas are: Miriam Vale, Turkey Beach, Gladstone, Rockhampton and Yeppoon. Last models show the Tropical Cyclone taking a sharp curve turn towards Townsville and the surrounding areas, while this model was outdated it is still possible for it to take a turn and make a hit to those areas but that remains unknown.

Will keep monitoring this throughout the next few days.

There is a chance of two hurricanes in a row....

https://au.yahoo.com/news/threat-back-back-cyclones-hit-211600282.html

Surely this is El Nino at work

[MrGreeny]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 05U -

While 05U is expected to move away from the Queensland coast, over the next several days we will begin to see it start turning back and potentially strengthen to "Severe" status by the middle of next week.

GFS models now show the potential Tropical Cyclone definitely hitting the coast, however it remains uncertain where the impact zone will be.

For now the potential impact areas are: Miriam Vale, Turkey Beach, Gladstone, Rockhampton and Yeppoon. Last models show the Tropical Cyclone taking a sharp curve turn towards Townsville and the surrounding areas, while this model was outdated it is still possible for it to take a turn and make a hit to those areas but that remains unknown.

Will keep monitoring this throughout the next few days.

There is a chance of two hurricanes in a row....

https://au.yahoo.com/news/threat-back-back-cyclones-hit-211600282.html

Surely this is El Nino at work

Usually not this active at this time of year but perfect temperatures and low wind shear makes this perfect for a powerful storm.

Some models predict moving away from the coast still... I think it's predicted to make landfall here in the next week or so.

[morganism]

winter-prepares-to-take-a-break-so-well-talk-about-crawfish-recent-research-and-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

(...)
Another interesting paper published in November in the European Geophysical Union’s Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics touches on how aerosols from anthropogenic (human) sources impact the destructiveness of hurricanes. What stood out about this article was their finding that an increasing concentration of aerosols near the immediate coast (say, as storms approach the petrochemical complexes of the Gulf Coast) can lead to a weaker but larger storm with an 11 to 22 percent increase in precipitation within 100km of the center. The study used Hurricane Katrina as a model storm, and they worked to utilize very sophisticated modeling to solve for this.

“For the first time, a 3-D atmosphere–ocean fully coupled regional model (WRF–ROMS) at the cloud-resolving scale was used to simulate Hurricane Katrina in order to investigate the aerosol–TC system with the inclusion of air–sea interaction,” the authors write.

What I think our readers should take away from this research is that it adds to the growing body of evidence that suggests hurricanes are becoming more moisture-laden as they approach land, which is resulting in more rain, more flooding, more damage, and more impacts to more people.
2024 hurricane season early vibes check

There have been some items published in recent weeks about the upcoming hurricane season. I’ve seen everything from people expecting an active season to a very active season to the “hurricane season from hell.” Hyperbole aside, what does the very early data actually show about the hurricane season that begins in just over 4 months?

The first question we’d ask is whether El Niño will continue into this summer. The answer to that question is still an uncertain one. Modeling is aggressively weakening the El Niño event by late spring, as is often typically the case with strong events like this one. The European model below, for example, has us close to “ENSO Neutral,” or “La Nada” by mid-summer, with extrapolation pushing us toward weak La Niña perhaps by the peak of hurricane season.
The ECMWF long range forecast suggests an aggressive weakening of El Niño this summer, but still some question as to whether or not we end up in La Niña. (ECMWF)

Why does this matter? La Niña events are much more favorable for active hurricane seasons than El Niño events. So if we were to hypothetically tip back into La Niña this summer, it would likely aid an active hurricane season.

Historically, since 1950 in hurricane seasons immediately following a higher-end El Niño, we average 6 hurricanes (with as many as 10 in 1998). A normal hurricane season has about 7 hurricanes, so one could argue that the season proceeding after stronger El Niños may not necessarily skew dramatically higher. From that end, I don’t know that we can currently read too much into El Niño vs. La Niña chances this summer and how they may influence the season.

That being said, one thing we can absolutely read into are sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The globe’s oceans are undergoing a heat wave of sorts. In fact, water temperatures in the main development region of the Atlantic basin are currently in line with what you would normally expect to see in July. That’s not a typo.
(more)

https://theeyewall.com/winter-prepares-to-take-a-break-so-well-talk-about-crawfish-recent-research-and-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/

[vox_mundi]

In a Warming World, Climate Scientists Consider Category 6 Hurricanes
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-world-climate-scientists-category-hurricanes.html

... Researchers investigated and detailed their extensive research in a new article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), where they introduce a hypothetical Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which would encompass storms with wind speeds greater than 192 mph.

When the team performed a historical data analysis of hurricanes from 1980 to 2021, they found five storms that would have been classified as Category 6, and all of them occurred in the last nine years of record. They determined a hypothetical upper bound for Category 5 hurricanes by looking at the expanding range of wind speeds between the lower-category storms.

... Their models showed that with 2 degrees Celsius of global warming above pre-industrial levels, the risk of Category 6 storms increases by up to 50% near the Philippines and doubles in the Gulf of Mexico and that the highest risk of these storms is in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and the Gulf of Mexico....

Wehner, Michael F. et al, The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2024)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308901121

[Richard Rathbone]

There's an article on this paper at  Eye on the Storm as well.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/02/does-the-saffir-simpson-scale-for-hurricanes-need-a-category-6/

[vox_mundi]

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Projected to Move Toward the Poles
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-tropical-cyclone-genesis-poles.html


The zonal-mean distribution of the difference in panels (a–c) 850-hPa relative vorticity (10−6 s−1) and (d–f) 200-hPa divergence (10−6 s−1) during JASO in the Northern Hemisphere and JFMA in the Southern Hemisphere (the scale on the left). The difference is taken between (a, d) HST and NWA, (b, e) W2K and HST, and (c, f) W4K and HST. The solid line indicates the climatology of the zonal-mean (a–c) 850-hPa relative vorticity and (d–f) 200-hPa divergence in HST (the scale on the right). Credit: Geophysical Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107189

In a recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters, researchers unveil a poleward shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis on a global scale as a result of climate change. Led by Dr. Xi Cao from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the research team collaborated with experts from institutions including the University of Tokyo, Zhejiang University, Yunnan University, the National Climate Center, and the University of New South Wales.

The impact of climate change on TC activity has been a subject of widespread concern due to the potential for disasters such as gales, heavy rain, and storm surges, leading to economic losses and casualties in coastal regions worldwide. However, the lack of consensus on changes in the frequency and location of TC genesis under global warming has created uncertainty in assessing the comprehensive impact of climate change on TC activities.

While climate models have previously projected a decrease in TC genesis frequency in future warming, the global nature of the latitudinal change in TC genesis has remained uncertain.

The research team utilized d4PDF simulations, known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes, to reveal a robust poleward shift of TC genesis during active seasons in both hemispheres, with the rate of TC genesis decreasing within latitudes equatorward of 15° and increasing poleward of 15° in each basin.

The projected shift is attributed to the weakening of the Hadley circulation, driven by increased upper tropospheric warming. The study estimates that the signal of TC genesis is expected to emerge over high latitudes of the Arabian Sea, South Atlantic, and South Pacific Oceans at 2 K warming, with implications for assessing the reliability of future TC-related changes in climate models and estimating increased TC-related hazards at higher latitudes under global warming.

"Our research underscores the dynamic nature of tropical cyclone genesis, revealing a significant shift towards the poles." Dr. Cao, the first and corresponding author, explains the teams' finding, "This emphasizes the critical connection between climate change and the evolving patterns of these weather phenomena."

Xi Cao et al, The Projected Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclogenesis at a Global Scale Under Climate Change in MRI‐AGCM3.2H, Geophysical Research Letters (2024)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL107189

Abstract

Future climate projections suggest a poleward shift of the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific. However, the global nature of the latitudinal change in TC genesis under global warming remains poorly understood. We show, using large-ensemble high-resolution atmospheric model simulations (d4PDF) with four warming scenarios, that the poleward shift is a robust change over the globe, attributable to the weakening of the Hadley circulation. The weakened ascent driven by the upper-tropospheric warming suppresses the TC genesis within 5°–20° latitudes, whereas the weakened descent enhances the TC genesis in the poleward latitudes. We further estimate the poleward shift of TC genesis to emerge at the 2 K global warming over the Arabian Sea, South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and at the 4 K warming over the North Pacific. The present results underscore the potential for increasing social and economic risks associated with TCs at higher latitudes.

Key Points

• We project a global feature of the robust poleward shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis during active seasons of both hemispheres
• More TC genesis at high latitudes can be attributed to the weakening of the Hadley circulation
• Poleward shift of TC genesis emerges at 2 K warming over Arabian Sea, South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and at 4 K warming over North Pacific

Plain Language Summary

Climate models have projected a decrease in TC genesis frequency in future warming. However, the global nature of the latitudinal change in TC genesis under global warming remains uncertain partly due to insufficient resolution as well as the ensemble size of climate model simulations. We show a global feature of the robust poleward shift of the TC genesis during the active seasons of both hemispheres scaled with the global warming level, which can be attributed to the weakening of the Hadley circulation. The weakened ascending branch of the Hadley circulation, driven by the increased upper tropospheric warming, potentially hinders TC genesis within 5°–20° latitudes. Conversely, the weakened descending branch of the Hadley circulation enhances the likelihood of TC genesis within 20°–35° latitudes. We further estimate that the signal of TC genesis is expected to emerge over high latitudes of the Arabian Sea, South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans at the 2 K warming and at the 4 K warming over the North Pacific. The present analyses have significant implications not only for assessing the reliability of future TC-related changes in climate models but also for estimating the increased TC-related hazards at higher latitudes under global warming.

[CalamityCountdown]

According to https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic, the accumulated cyclone energy of North Atlantic hurricanes has been above 95 for each of the past 8 years (2016  thru 2023) and above 100 for 7 of the last 8 (2022 was the outlier with 95). Comparing this result to the previous 30 years, 14 out of the previous 30 years had accumulated energy below 95 (47%). I doubt many readers of this forum will be surprised by the fact that years with accumulated cyclone energy of North Atlantic hurricanes with high intensities are increasing.

I conducted this review because I speculated it highly likely that given the warmer ocean temperatures, that the Carribean Islands, North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexco coastal communities are likely to be devastated by the next round of hurricanes following the flip of ENSO to La Nina.

However, when comparing accumulated energy years to El Nino and La Nina years, I found that while there is definitely a correlation, it is not as strong as I had expected to find https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm. While El Niño generally tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, and La Niña tends to enhance it, an eyeball review of the results suggests that it does not appear to be highly predictive of whether there will be destructive hurricane activity during 2024. Thus, if there is a flip of the ENSO cycle from El Niño to La Niña, as some forecasters are predicting, it makes a devastating hurricane season more likely, but not a certainty.

While coastal communities may not be as vulnerable to hurricanes in 2024 as I had supposed before starting this review, I fear that the warmer ocean temperatures will lead to more devasting Atlantic hurricanes in the not too distant future during both El Niño and La Niña years.

[Richard Rathbone]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/02/a-rare-bird-in-the-south-atlantic-tropical-storm-akara/

The only ocean basin on Earth that does not regularly see tropical cyclones develop is the South Atlantic, but it had a rare tropical storm form on Sunday night. Tropical Depression 01Q was designated by the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center at 7 a.m. EST Sunday and by 7 p.m., it had been upgraded to Tropical Storm Akará, with top sustained winds estimated at 40 mph and a central pressure of 1,000 millibars.

On those few occasions when tropical cyclones do form in the South Atlantic, they are typically located within a few hundred miles of the coast of Brazil. Such was the case with Akará, which was centered about 300 miles southeast of São Paolo as of 7 p.m. EST Sunday.

Until the 2000s, it was widely thought that full-fledged tropical cyclones did not form in the South Atlantic. Although waters can be sufficiently warm, there is often too much wind shear, and tropical waves that can serve as seedlings for tropical cyclones do not stream regularly off the coast of southern Africa as they do from northern Africa. For these reasons, the South Atlantic was not canvassed by reconnaissance flights, and satellite imagery was not monitored closely for tropical development.

In 2004, expectations were upended when a nontropical system off the coast of Brazil gradually transitioned into a tropical cyclone and then turned back westward. The system came to be known as Hurricane Catarina, as it made landfall in the Santa Catarina province of Brazil as a Category 1 equivalent on March 27, 2004. More than 38,000 structures were damaged, and another 1,468 collapsed, with three people killed and 185 others injured.

After Catarina, forecasters and researchers began to pay closer attention to the South Atlantic, reviewing older satellite images and other evidence of past activity. Research released in 2012 found that 63 subtropical cyclones had formed between 1957 and 2012, or about one subtropical cyclone every year. In the eight years from 2015 through 2023, there were 13 more subtropical storms, as well as Tropical Storm Iba in 2019 and short-lived Tropical Storm 01Q in 2021 (which was recognized by NOAA but not named by the Brazilian Navy).

[Richard Rathbone]

I'm a day late spotting this but here is a new take on the problem of not enough names for hurricanes.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/04/atlantic-hurricanes-to-be-given-both-first-and-last-names/

At a press conference today, National Hurricane Center director of public affairs, April Furst, said:

“The decision to give hurricanes both first and last names comes in response to the critically low number of names beginning with the letter “I” in the rotating list of names. One reason Hurricane Isaias of 2020 did not get its name retired — despite causing almost $6 billion in damage — was that we didn’t want to come up with another obscure male ‘I’ name that not many people could pronounce. Hence, the name Isaac will now be recycled in perpetuity, but with a different last name each time it gets its name retired.”

Here, then, is the official 2024 list of Atlantic hurricane names announced today by the National Hurricane Center:

Alberto Saurus
Beryl O’Fun
Chris Cross
Debby Downer
Ernesto Cattywampus
Francine Leanmean
Gordon Flash
Helene Machine
Isaac Newton
Joyce Cyclogenesis
Kirk Toenterprise
Leslie Saffir-Simpson
Milton Bradley
Nadine Flumberghast
Oscar Meijer
Patty Wagon
Rafael Recurvature
Sara Peachy
Tony Stark
Valerie Fujiwhara
William Willy-willy

[vox_mundi]

might need a few more names ...

2024 Hurricane Season Forecast Includes the Highest Number of Hurricanes Ever Predicted
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/04/04/2024-hurricane-season-outlook-colorado-state/73147475007/

Buckle up and hunker down: An "extremely active" hurricane season is likely, top forecasters from Colorado State University announced Thursday. In fact, the forecast includes the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in an April forecast by Colorado State since the team began issuing predictions in 1995

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

"We're coming out with a very aggressive forecast: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes," said Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State University. "And even that is so undercutting all the model guidance."

"Everything is leaning toward an extremely active season: still record warm Atlantic water temperatures and a pretty rapid transition over to La Niña," he said.

A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, and seven spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.

This forecast covers storms that form in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Also predicting an active Atlantic season are the UK Met Office and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which calls for nine hurricanes between April and September, he said. Most storm activity typically happens between mid-August and mid-October.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

https://www.ecmwf.int/

... La Nina tends to allow more hurricanes to move more westward across the Atlantic rather than peeling off to the north as they approach the islands in the far eastern Caribbean, Klotzbach said. That favors hurricane landfalls along the East Coast from Florida to Maine, he said, and more toward Florida than Texas and Alabama.

[vox_mundi]

Future Hurricanes Could Compromise New England Forests' Ability to Store and Sequester Carbon
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-future-hurricanes-compromise-england-forests.html

New research published in Global Change Biology indicates that a single hurricane in New England, one of the most heavily forested regions in the United States, can down 4.6–9.4% of the total above-ground forest carbon, an amount much greater than the carbon sequestered annually by New England's forests.

The work revealed that emissions from hurricanes are not instantaneous—it takes approximately 19 years for downed carbon to become a net emission, and 100 years for 90% of the downed carbon to be emitted.

Models showed that an 8% and 16% increase in hurricane wind speeds leads to a 10.7- and 24.8-fold increase, respectively, in areas that would experience widespread tree mortality. Increased wind speed also leads to geographical shifts in damage, both inland and northward, into heavily forested regions that have traditionally been less affected by hurricanes.

"If we are going to rely on forest carbon as a primary tool to mitigate climate change—which seems to be the dominant direction that policies and voluntary/compulsory carbon markets are going in—we have to adequately account for the risks to this forest carbon from disturbances," said corresponding author Shersingh Joseph Tumber-Dávila, Ph.D., of Dartmouth College and Harvard Forest.

"We show that current carbon market policies are incredibly insufficiently buffered against these risks, with a single hurricane having the capacity to emit the equivalent of 10+ years of carbon sequestration from New England forests. To put this in perspective, currently in California's regulatory carbon market (the largest in the US), less than 3% of carbon credits are set aside to mitigate catastrophic risks. Any storm is likely to deplete what is set aside for risks over 100 years."

Hurricanes pose substantial risk to New England forest carbon stocks, Global Change Biology (2024)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17259

[Jim Hunt]

might need a few more names ...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/242007_MIATWOAT.shtml

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
410 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area
of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this
morning.  However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10
to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and
tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.

[vox_mundi]

Coastal Hurricanes Around the World Are Intensifying Faster, New Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-coastal-hurricanes-world-faster.html

A new study led by scientists at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory finds that coastal conditions have changed since 1979, driving nearshore hurricanes around the world to intensify at a quickening pace. What's more, new projections suggest this rate will continue climbing should current warming trends continue. The paper is published in the journal Earth's Future.

Much work has been done to document how hurricanes are changing in our warmer world. Past research has shown these storms may grow wetter, threatening heightened risks of flooding. Other work suggests they may strike more often in some areas and that their intensity may peak closer to the coast, posing additional risk to the roughly 40 percent of the world's population that lives within 100 kilometers (62.13 miles) of a coastline, according to the United Nations.

Yet, until now, no one has documented whether coastal hurricanes are intensifying faster at a global scale. Looking at past data, the authors of the new work found that the average rate at which these storms intensified over the period from 1979 to 2000 was 0.37 knots every six hours. That pace picked up for the period from 2000 to 2020, where the mean intensification rate was 1.15 knots every six hours.

In the two decades preceding the year 2000, on average, a hurricane might have begun at a certain intensity and increased in strength by roughly 1.5 knots over the course of a day. After 2000, an average hurricane could begin at the same intensity and strengthen by about 4.5 knots during the same 24-hour period.

In the new work, climate modeling revealed how hurricanes could shape up in the coming decades. On nearly every coastline of the world's continental landmasses, hurricanes are likely to intensify faster as the world warms, according to the new work.



The authors of the new work point to increased humidity and weakened wind shear as major contributors to the climbing rate of intensification, with the latter playing a particularly important role in the future.

Balaguru's team found that wind shear is likely to weaken across much of the globe, especially near the Northern Hemisphere coastal regions, in a warmer climate. There are likely multiple factors at play.

Karthik Balaguru et al, A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Earth's Future (2024)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF004230

[Sigmetnow]

Philip Klotzbach
The Northern Hemisphere has yet to have its first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or #hurricane) in 2024. This is the first time since 1983 that the Northern Hemisphere has gone this late in the calendar year without a named storm.
5/20/24, 10:53 AM.  https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1792569380183683201
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/auy5nINlk7  radar gif

[neal]

Should be an exciting year...

[neal]

Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niña — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.

Colorado State University — the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s — issued its most aggressive April forecast last month in almost 30 years of doing such preseason outlooks. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, will release its first 2024 hurricane season outlook May 23, and expectations are for similarly bullish numbers.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/

[kassy]

So CSU is playing for 11. Lets see what NOAA comes up with.

[J Cartmill]

NOAA is above average with 17-25 named storms, 8-13 Hurricanes and 4-7 majors.

Levi Cowan has a nice video discussion on his Tropical Tidbits website.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/


More from NOAA here.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

[neal]

the average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 majors

[The Walrus]

Philip Klotzbach
The Northern Hemisphere has yet to have its first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or #hurricane) in 2024. This is the first time since 1983 that the Northern Hemisphere has gone this late in the calendar year without a named storm.
5/20/24, 10:53 AM.  https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1792569380183683201
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/auy5nINlk7  radar gif

Still waiting for the first storm.  Additionally, the southern hemisphere was below average.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[vox_mundi]

Thousands Flee as Cyclone Heads Towards Bangladesh
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-thousands-cyclone-bangladesh.html

Cyclone Remal is set to hit the southern coast of Bangladesh and parts of neighboring India on Sunday evening, with Bangladesh's weather department predicting crashing waves and howling gales with gusts of up to 130 kilometers (81 miles) per hour.

... "The cyclone could unleash a storm surge of up to 12 feet (four meters) above normal astronomical tide, which can be dangerous," senior weather official Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik told AFP.

Most of Bangladesh's coastal areas are a meter or two above sea level and high storm surges can devastate villages.

... As people fled, police said that a heavily laden ferry carrying more than 50 passengers—double its capacity—was swamped by rough waters and sank near Mongla, a port in the expected path of the storm.

Some 4,000 cyclone shelters have been readied along the country's lengthy coast on the Bay of Bengal, with the cyclone expected to hit a 220-kilometer stretch from India's Sagar Island to Khepupara in Bangladesh.

The state-run Bangladesh Meteorological Department said Cyclone Remal would make landfall Sunday between 6:00 pm and midnight (1200-1800 GMT)

[The Walrus]

The northern hemisphere is storm-free no longer.

[gerontocrat]

An article from Yale Connections on current extreme SSTs in the tropical Atlantic

click images to enlarge

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/

record-breaking heat in the Atlantic

Waters across the Atlantic’s tropical belt — extending from the coast of Africa through the Caribbean — are hotter now than in any other late May on record, with over 90% of the area’s sea surface engulfed in record or near-record warmth. The extent of marine heat has never been greater heading into a hurricane season, outpacing by wide margins the previous late May record-holder in 2005, a year remembered for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.

Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it, especially when the abnormal warmth coincides with the tropical belt known as the Main Development Region, or MDR, the area where 85% of Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes form. When considered alongside a developing La Niña — the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific that reduces storm-busting Atlantic wind shear — the unprecedented ocean heat is driving up seasonal hurricane outlooks higher than ever before.

Colorado State University — the group that pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s — issued its most aggressive April forecast last month in almost 30 years of doing such preseason outlooks. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, will release its first 2024 hurricane season outlook May 23, and expectations are for similarly bullish numbers.

[kiwichick16]

@  gero  ...............WOW.......that looks really bad

[Bruce Steele]

Kiwi, Katrina badly hurt the Bush re-election campaign and it looks like there is a strong possibility Biden will have to deal with one or two land falling Hurricanes before elections. Hope nature doesn’t deal him a knockout blow.
 

[gerontocrat]

Here is the 26^o Celsius isotherm for the Atlantic as at 26 May, and the same graph at the same date in 2023.

They are very similar, but with 26 degrees pushing further north in mid-Atlantic in 2024 - which is not good for this early in the summer.

[The Walrus]

Kiwi, Katrina badly hurt the Bush re-election campaign and it looks like there is a strong possibility Biden will have to deal with one or two land falling Hurricanes before elections. Hope nature doesn’t deal him a knockout blow.

Natural disasters can be a bonus to a presidential campaign, as it allows the president to be presidential.  This gives him a real advantage over his opponents.  Superstorm Sandy was a real boon to Obama’s re-election efforts, and stymied the Romney campaign.  Also, Katrina occurred after Bush was re-elected, so it had no effect on the election.

[kiwichick16]

@  gero  ......i assume some of this heat will be transported north on the Gulf Stream ?

[gerontocrat]

Kiwi, Katrina badly hurt the Bush re-election campaign and it looks like there is a strong possibility Biden will have to deal with one or two land falling Hurricanes before elections. Hope nature doesn’t deal him a knockout blow.

Natural disasters can be a bonus to a presidential campaign, as it allows the president to be presidential.  This gives him a real advantage over his opponents.  Superstorm Sandy was a real boon to Obama’s re-election efforts, and stymied the Romney campaign.  Also, Katrina occurred after Bush was re-elected, so it had no effect on the election.

Bush completely screwed up the response to Katrina - maybe some people remembered that when contrasting that with the response to Sandy.

[The Walrus]

Kiwi, Katrina badly hurt the Bush re-election campaign and it looks like there is a strong possibility Biden will have to deal with one or two land falling Hurricanes before elections. Hope nature doesn’t deal him a knockout blow.

Natural disasters can be a bonus to a presidential campaign, as it allows the president to be presidential.  This gives him a real advantage over his opponents.  Superstorm Sandy was a real boon to Obama’s re-election efforts, and stymied the Romney campaign.  Also, Katrina occurred after Bush was re-elected, so it had no effect on the election.

Bush completely screwed up the response to Katrina - maybe some people remembered that when contrasting that with the response to Sandy.

Yes, he did.  But he was already re-elected.  It hurt his party significantly, as the Democrats won majorities in the subsequent midterms.

[vox_mundi]

[gerontocrat]

here is a gif showing the advance of the 26 degree C isotherm in the Atlantic over the last month

runs 6 times

[gerontocrat]

& lo & Behold

Definitely looks like a problem,
Could be very nasty.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of
low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche with winds of
35-40 mph occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center
over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves
slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week.  In
addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of
Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Interests
along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the
progress of this system, as tropical storm watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later this afternoon or
tonight.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Richard Rathbone]

PTC1 has not  yet formed  Alberto but  forecast  to  do so  in the next 24  hours.

Tropical storm warnings are up for Texas and Mexico.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/181449.shtml?

Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system.  The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding.  Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning today and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight or
Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor
and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Warning area.

More detail from Eye on the Storm
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/06/tropical-storm-warnings-up-for-texas-and-mexico-for-potential-tropical-cyclone-1/

Could  be a repeat for Texas next week too.

The GFS and European models and their ensembles are predicting that another disturbance will develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche late this week, and then potentially develop into a tropical storm that would bring additional heavy rains to South Texas and northeastern Mexico early next week. In its Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, NHC gave this future system 2-day and 7-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

There's a couple of videos from tropical tidbits too.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/

[The Walrus]

Expected to become TS Alberto within a day.  Mostly a rainmaker though.

[opensheart]

Its official.  Isn't this rather late for the first named storm of the season?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-first-tropical-storm-texas-mexico-gulf-of-mexico/

[FrostKing70]

Average is June 20 from Yale Climate Connections:

yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/06/tropical-storm-warnings-up-for-texas-and-mexico-for-potential-tropical

"Forecast for PTC 1
The GFS and European models and their ensembles remain in strong agreement that PTC 1 will develop into a tropical storm over the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche by Wednesday, then move onto the coast of northeast Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas border by Wednesday night. Increasing wind shear and a short time over water will likely prevent much intensification, but the system has favorable enough conditions to become Tropical Storm Alberto, if only for a few hours before landfall. The average date of the arrival of the Atlantic’s first named storm is June 20, based on the 1991-2020 period; however, it has been a full decade (2014) since an Atlantic season made it as far as today (June 18) without its first named storm."

[The Walrus]

Its official.  Isn't this rather late for the first named storm of the season?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-first-tropical-storm-texas-mexico-gulf-of-mexico/

About average.  But seems rather late given the prediction for a very active year.  Still early though, and the tropics could ramp up at any time.

[Richard Rathbone]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/06/tropical-storm-alberto-batters-northeastern-mexico-and-texas/

New post  on Alberto. Major coastal flooding from storm surge extends far  north of  the  track  into  Texas.

Even before the storm was named, Alberto’s huge, lopsided wind field drove a large storm surge of 3-4 feet to the central and upper Texas coast during the high tide cycle on Wednesday morning. Major coastal flooding occurred from Freeport to Galveston, including Surfside Beach (see video below). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) had warned for days that Alberto’s unusual northward extent would bring more surge to Texas than one might expect from a weak tropical storm so far to the south.

[John_the_Younger]

Upwards of 20" (500mm) of rain expected in some mountainous areas in NE Mexico (link)

[morganism]

(yeah, they weren't kidding when they said reduced wind shear this year on the Gulf of Mex track)

@HurricaneModels
17h
Atlantic Disturbance #Alberto Track Forecasts (Thu 20 Jun 2024 1800 UTC): web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models…

[neal]

Sahara dust on the way...

The largest outbreak of Saharan dust this summer is currently making its way across the Atlantic Ocean, potentially impacting air quality and weather patterns throughout the Caribbean and parts of the United States. This marks a significant shift in the season’s weather patterns, influenced by the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which is known for its ability to suppress tropical cyclone formation.

The current Saharan dust plume is the largest of the 2024 hurricane season, with its effects already observable in various regions.

The warm, dry, and windy conditions associated with the dust clouds are expected to continue suppressing tropical cyclone activity, providing a temporary respite from storm formation.

However, it remains to be seen whether this round of aerosols will reach the Lower 48 states, as early models from NASA and the European Union’s Copernicus program suggest that the dust may not traverse the entire Atlantic basin.

Saharan dust, composed of sand and mineral particles from the Sahara Desert, is transported across vast distances by high-altitude winds. This phenomenon is not unusual for this time of year.

“These plumes are common in the Atlantic basin at this time of year, typically peaking in late June and early July with a proclivity to spoil tropical development by stealing moisture from the air,” said Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert at WPLG-TV, ABC Miami, Florida.

https://watchers.news/2024/06/26/saharan-dust-atlantic-ocean-caribbean-usa-june-2024/

[Richard Rathbone]

Another  one on  the way. (Also two others with small probabilities)

NHC
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined.  Showers and
thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on
Saturday. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph
and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system.  For
more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eye on the Storm
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/06/an-early-start-to-the-atlantics-cabo-verde-season/

tropical wave designated Invest 95L, now racing through the central tropical Atlantic, may pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the northern coast of South America as early as Sunday, June 30. Although it is very early in the season to be watching waves in this region for development, the record-warm ocean temperatures present across much of the tropical Atlantic give 95L a chance of developing into a named storm this weekend, and there could even be another system on its heels next week. Some models are predicting that 95L will become a dangerous long-track Cabo Verde-type hurricane, though there will be significant obstacles for it to overcome to achieve that.

Tropical tidbits video, discussion on the shear, why its unusually low for the time of year, and also the Caribbean graveyard along  with the usual model analyses.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/

[neal]

Another  one on  the way. (Also two others with small probabilities)

They really need to go and read that article about the Sahara dust....

[Richard Rathbone]

Another  one on  the way. (Also two others with small probabilities)

They really need to go and read that article about the Sahara dust....

Dust needs shear to  drive  it into the circulation. There isn't any shear, so the dust is stuck to the north of AL95. See the video I linked above. AL95 is sitting in moist air south of the dust, wrapping moisture not dust around itself. Most years there is shear there, and the dust would get into  the   circulation, but almost certainly not for AL95.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.