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gerontocrat

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ENSO 2024
« on: February 08, 2024, 07:08:53 PM »
We've been posting in ENSO 2023 though 'tis 2024.
Given the latest ENSO update from CPC it seems a good idea to open ENSO 2024 now.

It's a case of all change... even picked up by Bloomberg News

Next post has the CPC update

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-hurricane-boosting-la-ni-140013479.html
Quote
Bloomberg
The Odds of a Hurricane-Boosting La Niña This Year Are Rising

The odds of a La Niña weather pattern this year are rising, amplifying the risk of hurricanes in the Atlantic and drought in California and South America.

There’s a 55% chance that La Niña, a cooling of the equatorial Pacific, will occur between June and August as the strong El Niño that’s currently roiling weather around the world fades, US Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.

“I think there is potentially a fairly rapid transition ahead of us,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the agency.

La Niña threatens to unleash powerful hurricanes because it cuts down on shear, or winds blowing at different strength or directions at varying altitudes. It can also shift rain away from the US West and crop-growing regions in Argentina and Brazil, triggering drought.

While about 60% of strong El Niños have been followed by La Niñas, L’Heureux said no one should bank on that shift quite yet for 2024 because outlooks made before March aren’t as accurate as those made at other times of the year.

The Pacific’s surface is still quite warm, meaning El Niño is holding on, L’Heureux said. But below 100 meters (328 feet), she said, the ocean is getting cool — a sign that things are changing.
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gerontocrat

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Re: ENSO 2024
« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2024, 07:37:52 PM »
See also next post for more images

Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 February 2024
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

 
Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).

During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: ENSO 2024
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2024, 07:38:50 PM »
CPC Feb update - more images
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

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Re: ENSO 2024
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2024, 03:10:52 AM »
sigh of relief for y axis makers ?
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Rodius

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Re: ENSO 2024
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2024, 03:41:30 AM »
sigh of relief for y axis makers ?

I am not sure about that.

The temps only reduced a little bit during the last couple of La Nina events. At best, it will plateau for the duration of the La Nina then spike up a lot when it goes away and spike again next El Nino.

1.5 C by 2028.

interstitial

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Re: ENSO 2024
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2024, 05:11:17 AM »
Enso forecasts are less reliable across the spring prediction barrier.

Rodius

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Re: ENSO 2024
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2024, 06:34:08 AM »
Enso forecasts are less reliable across the spring prediction barrier.

Agreed.... they cant be taken too seriously.

I had a quick look at the Australia predictions compared to the actual result and they seem to do okay up until Apr/May, when they make every neutralish.

I just hope it isnt another El Nino though.
Although, a La Nina isnt exactly great in Australia either with more and bigger flooding events. We have suffered a lot over the last few years from floods... but that is the way of it moving forward I suppose.

SeanAU

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Re: ENSO 2024
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2024, 07:17:30 AM »
Well over a decade ago now, I and a few others, were independently forecasting/expecting (nothing scientific mind you) that by mid-2020s or before the Enso system would falter and a new regime develop, beginning with almost every year being as hot as the old style strong el nino .... that this in itself would cause the old enso system to break down completely into some totally new domain/system.

When 2016 arrived this only confirmed our feelings that this is where we are heading. Very high temps during the last so called la nina cycle and this new el nino and how the whole "standard patterns" are being broken is tending to confirm our "imaginative intuitive and wisdom based logic" forecasting way back when.

  I wish I was still in contact with them to reflect, but I suspect most if not all are now dead. 

It is now becoming today's reality .... next forecast domino to fall? Summer ASI blue ocean event 2024 +/- 2 years .... it is still on the cards that one, moreso now than ever before. 

Goodbye the 2012 record lows .....
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