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Jim Hunt

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The 2024 melting season
« on: March 02, 2024, 12:34:19 PM »
No doubt it's slightly premature to make this thread "sticky".

However there's plenty of evidence that the date of maximum Arctic sea ice extent for 2024 is already in the past:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/02/the-2024-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-02
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oren

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2024, 05:36:04 PM »
I did make it sticky, but keeping the freezing thread sticky as well for a couple more days.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2024, 07:58:37 PM »
A year in review from HYCOM.
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2024, 10:04:23 PM »
Well, that was kind of an early max extent date.

Posting for posterity: 2024 extent will finish in the Top 3 (lowest).
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The Walrus

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2024, 10:26:51 PM »
Well, that was kind of an early max extent date.

Posting for posterity: 2024 extent will finish in the Top 3 (lowest).

Yes, it would be an early maximum.  I feel it is premature to call it, as previous years have exhibited strong freezes throughout March.  It is my belief is that it will stand, but I would still wait.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2024, 11:20:50 PM »
Yes, it would be an early maximum.

Zack Labe's (AKA @Blizzard92) overview of previous JAXA maxima from a few weeks ago:
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Paul

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2024, 12:15:28 AM »
We shall see if today's jaxa drop is genuine or not but if it is, it's likely the max has passed but if not then it's still too early to know for sure.

A couple of areas I'll be watching this melting season, the area to the 'right' of the pole where low concentrations has been noted quite consistently during the freezing season and a area in the last 2 years which saw diffused ice by September. The other area is the north of the CAA where volume models is indicating the ice is thinner than average so we may see something unprecedented there by September perhaps.

Maybe the Beaufort could also be worth watching in the early part of the melt season given there does not seem to be much MYI here this year.

Rodius

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2024, 12:22:42 AM »
A year in review from HYCOM.

Looking at how thin the ice is as max, we seem to be on the edge of a complete disaster in terms of area minimum this year.

So much ice is within the range of melting out completely that it wouldnt take much to make 2012 look like a good year.

Can we get lucky again this year???
Surely it is running out.

Killian

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2024, 04:02:47 AM »
Low ASIE in 2024-'25?

Revisiting the El Nino-ASI connection I posited in 2015, accurately, and which was upheld by the 2020 low following the weak 2019 EN (though I think that was about system change more so than that small EN), we now face not only a strong El Nino, but a general global massive jump in temperatures, sometimes hitting 6 sigma anomalies. We've crossed 1.5C on a 12-month trailing average and, so far as I know, remain there.

Predicting low ASI extent at this point seems pretty obvious, but given I predicted it once the 2nd straight La Nina showed up, if we get a new low or a near new low in '24~25, it will be the 2nd time I've predicted such conditions a year or more before it happened.

Is anyone on board with this now-clear pattern yet?

Background and new info:
From 2015, my prediction of the 2016 low/near-new low based on El Nino: https://realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/08/unforced-variations-aug-2015/comment-page-5/#comment-635199

From 2021, Scripps' "Heat Bombs" validating my theory: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/heat-bombs-destroying-arctic-sea-ice

From 2024, Antarctic Melt in the late 1940's ~ early 1950's kicked off by a large EN: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/el-nino-kickstarted-the-melting-of-antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-80-years-ago-new-study-reveals

So now we have an ENSO effect being noted at both poles.

Still need convincing?

Killian

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2024, 04:14:54 AM »
Well, that was kind of an early max extent date.

Posting for posterity: 2024 extent will finish in the Top 3 (lowest).

Sure. Predicted that over a year ago when the 2nd La Nina kicked in. By the 3rd one, well, what goes down must come up and all that heat had to be going somewhere, so a large El Nino *had* to be due. I did not, however, predict the entire planet would lose its mind and turn into an imitation of a toaster oven.

I also remember wondering in 2020 whether the 2016 El Nino had pushed the ecosystem into a new regime because despite there being a small El Nino ending in 2019 and the 2020 low ASIE fitting in the EN-ASIE model, there was nothing that year that foretold such a massive drop was coming. It made no sense.

A couple weeks ago I read an article and/or paper stating that an acceleration/rise in global temps started in 2016 and is ongoing. Once again, pattern literacy comes into play as an important aspect of analyzing climate outcomes.

Given the new paper stating a large EN might have precipitated the beginning of AIS destabilization and the clear connection between EN's and ASI melt, I think we have an effective "new" method of analysis and prediction of climate change and effects within the cryosphere.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2024, 05:38:32 AM »
     I too have a hunch that the bottom will fall out for the ASI melt season minimum within the next 1-3 years after 12 years of relative stasis, but AFAIK no direct association between the ENSO cycle and the ASI September minimum has been documented.  Or did I miss a study (or more than one) making that point? 

     My hunch is pretty simplistic - ocean heat, especially in the northernmost Atlantic Ocean has reached new never before (in human history) seen high values.  The Arctic Ocean may be somewhat isolated but the assault on ice integrity from the Atlantic side seems sure to continue and likely to accelerate in the next couple of years.  The ASI in the Beaufort and Chukchi on the Pacific side are not in great shape either.  And the coup de grace could be the weakening of the wall of rafted thick ice that used to prevent ASI from getting pushed south into the CAA.  Meanwhile, the slow leak of what should be the thickest ice out of the Lincoln Sea via the Nares Strait continues.

     Even the experts were flummoxed by the warming seen in 2023.  And despite all the talk about El Nino, due to 2023 starting under La Nina influence and the 3-4 month lag of ENSO impact on global surface temperature after it started gaining energy in summer, 2023 overall was an ENSO neutral year. 

     For 2024, there will be another notch up towards the solar cycle max (a small but real effect), another year of progressive warming (for which the average annual rate is now 0.03 C or maybe even 0.04 C vs. the previous 0.02 C), and the lag effect of the 2023-24  El Nino which is indeed showing up in the very high Jan. and Feb. temperatures).  Unless ENSO does a hard turn back down into La Nina by late summer, 2024 should be even warmer than 2023, including a continuation of ocean warming which is where 93% of the heat gets stored. 

     I have it on good authortiy that ice won't last long in a warm bathtub.  Don't read too carefully or else you might notice that I seem to refute my initial point about their not being a connection between ENSO and ASI. Just remember this -- "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do."
     - Ralph Waldo Emerson.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2024, 04:13:05 PM by Glen Koehler »
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2024, 07:21:33 AM »
I mean, I'm no doomer, but a really nasty melt year is due sometime soon. It's just how the trends wobble. Heck, my grandfather saw this coming back in the late 80s. Meticulous record keeper & farmer who also spent a lot of time on trips to Moosonee and Fort Albany back in the day. Told me to move north before I retire (I'm in my early 50s now), to avoid the worst & if I could handle the mosquitoes haha. That was in '86, I won't forget that talk, back on the beach in front of their home on Lake Erie.

But never forget that in any given year, weather has the final say. It can be a barrier or a dam-buster, ya never know.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2024, 08:28:44 AM »

....
     My hunch is pretty simplistic - ocean heat, especially in the northernmost Atlantic Ocean has reached new never before (in human history) seen high values.  The Arctic Ocean may be somewhat isolated but the assault on ice integrity from the Atlantic side seems sure to continue and likely to accelerate in the next couple of years. 

....

I tend to agree. North Atlantic SSTs had a huge runup from 1993 to 2006/7 which coincided with accelerated Arctic melt (see charts). Then we had a colling until 2015 (the famous Cold Blob, probably due to accelerated Greenland freshwater runoff). Arctic summer extent hasn't really gone anywhere since 2007/10.

So I posit the following theory: AGW leads to warming of the Atlantic. The heat moves North, eventually causing increasing Arctic melt and warmer Greenland summers as well which leads to freshwater runoff which slows AMOC and cools the North Atlantic. The cool North Atlantic blocks heat flows from the South and as the Arctic has less heat input from the South, so melt seasons remain similar, go sideways. But heat keeps accumulating in the tropical and temperate Atlantic and eventually overcomes the previous barriers. The North Atlantic warms up again, heat moves North and Arctic melt starts to accelerate. It may be a sort of seesaw.

IF ( a big IF of course) this is true then big melt years should follow very soon (in the next 3-5 years)

binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2024, 08:29:47 AM »
Not that I want to spoil the party, but a warming world in general (and an El Nino in particular) has almost no value in predicting the annual minimum at this time of year.

We are now half a million km2 below 2012 at this point. That was 12 years ago, in a colder climate, but with significant weather events well timed to cause maximum damage to the ice. This will happen again one of these years, but it is not possible to predict when.

As for the current hiatus, it will most likely stick around until winter extent starts to drop significantly. That might take another 5 or 50 or 100 years. I for one am not aware of any safe way to predict when this will happen.
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binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2024, 08:38:36 AM »
Glen, I will agree that one of the biggest contributers to annual melt is oceanic heat transfer (which includes the Atlantic low-pressure conveyor belt). But the causality of the "Greenland melt runoff" theory has not been proven. The reason being that the melt runoff to date has been insignificant in volume, and mainly ends up in the north of Baffin Bay anyway. So the runoff is too small and ends up in the wrong place to explain the changes in sea surface temperatures in the area selected in your post.

And remember - these are surface temperatures, and tell us nothing about what is actually happening below the surface where a huge amount of heat transport is presumably ongoing all the time. One good explanation of the below-average period between 1965 and 1995 is that the winds were predominantly from the north during this period (as per verbal information from a meteorologist), thus cooling the surface. But any impact on the actual heat transfer of the AMOC may have been zero.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2024, 11:41:36 AM »
...............As for the current hiatus, it will most likely stick around until winter extent starts to drop significantly. That might take another 5 or 50 or 100 years.
Looking at the JAXA sea ice extent September minima, if you accept 2007 and 2012 were outliers, the hiatus prety much disappears. (see graphs 1 & 2).

Looking at JAXA sea ice extent extent annual average daily extent, it is only in the last 2 years that the annual average shows signs of a hiatus  (see graph 3).

there was a long, exhaustive discussion on this hiatus n months ago (n quite large), and it all ended up simply with agreeing that 2007 and especially 2012 were outliers, or not agreeing with that.

ps: 2012 was an extraordinary year - look at the Greenland Ice Sheet Cumulative SURFACE Melt graph from NSIDC's Greenland Today (last graph). Interestingly, I have not read anywhere a suggestion of a hiatus in Greenland ice sheet surface melt trends although since then no year has come even close to the 2012 melt.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2024, 12:02:01 PM »

A couple weeks ago I read an article and/or paper stating that an acceleration/rise in global temps started in 2016 and is ongoing. Once again, pattern literacy comes into play as an important aspect of analyzing climate outcomes.
I recall reading something about this being related to reductions in sulfur aerosols due to regulatory changes.  It could have been accelerated by the global reduction in travel during COVID lock downs.  I shall have to see what I can track down.
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Ranman99

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2024, 01:53:48 PM »
How about the time spent in the reduction of global dimming during the COVID debacle. That surely assisted to get some balls moving.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2024, 08:18:39 PM »
In case anybody else has been wondering about the recent absence of SMOS data, Lars Kaleschke (AKA @seaice.de) pointed me at this ESA announcement from February 28th:

Quote
SMOS went into safe mode on 22 February 2024 at 05:10 UTC for reasons that are still under investigation.

The spacecraft has been back in nominal mode since 25 February 2024 and on 27 February 2024, the MIRAS instrument was switched on and is currently performing well.

The reload of the nominal acquisition planning is underway, and if all science data quality checks are positive, nominal data production and dissemination will resume in the coming days.

Which explains why this volume/thickness comparison suffers from unequal dates:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2024/#Mar-04
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2024, 10:44:32 PM »
<snip> As for the current hiatus, it will most likely stick around until winter extent starts to drop significantly. That might take another 5 or 50 or 100 years. I for one am not aware of any safe way to predict when this will happen.

Notz, D., & Stroeve, J. (2018). The trajectory towards a seasonally ice-free Arctic
614 Ocean. Current Climate Change Reports, 4 (4), 407.  https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2

     "Combined with the temperature threshold of less than + 2 ◦C for a near ice-free ocean during summer, this then implies low, but above zero chances for a near-ice free Arctic ocean at + 1.5 ◦C global warming."
 
     -- They include a table of five different estimates for the average global temperature anomaly over preindustrial (1850-1900 proxy) at which to expect an ice-free September.  The five estimates are 1.6, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, and 1.9 C.  IPCC and other sources have stated 1.7 C as a threshold value.

* "The Arctic sea-ice cover has been and will remain linearly related to global-mean air temperature in all months. Global-mean air temperature can hence be interpreted as the most important control variable on future Arctic sea-ice evolution."

* "The observed linear relationship between Arctic sea ice coverage and global-mean air temperature suggests Arctic sea-ice coverage to drop below 1 million km2 in more than 50% of all years for a global warming of less than 2 ◦C compared to pre-industrial levels."

* "From internal variability, September sea-ice coverage can vary by a maximum of ± 1 million km2 for a given global-mean air temperature."

     Due to the high variability around the trend, it is not possible to pinpoint an exact year for when September ASI will go below 1M km2.  But Notz and Stroeve document a strong linear relationship between global average surface temperature and the September ASI minimum.  Note that the global average surface temperature in 2023 was +1.45C (World Meteorological Assoc.).  2024 is likely to be at least as warm or warmer. 

     Hansen thinks 1.5C is the new baseline and that the temperature anomaly will not go below +1.4C even with the next La Nina.  Hansen, Tamino, and others have documented that the 0.2C/decade warming rate since ~1970 has increased to 0.3C since ca. 2010.  Hansen et al. 2023 (Global Warming in the Pipeline) posits that the warming rate for the next few decades is likely to be 0.3 to 0.4C per decade.
   
     If so, then 1.7 C could arrive by 2030.  And as Notz and Stroeve estimated back in 2018, even at +1.5C there is a non-zero chance of an ASI <1M km2 in September. 

     Is 2024 going to be the next 2012?   Probably not unless there is some unusually strong melt weather.  But as the warming trend continues it will take less and less unusual melt weather to repeat a 2012-like outcome.
-------------------------------------------------------

<snip> Glen, I will agree that one of the biggest contributors to annual melt is oceanic heat transfer (which includes the Atlantic low-pressure conveyor belt). But the causality of the "Greenland melt runoff" theory has not been proven.
    It's a theory I'd be proud to claim parentage of, but it is by El Cid not me.

---------------------------------------------------------
I recall reading something about this being related to reductions in sulfur aerosols due to regulatory changes.  It could have been accelerated by the global reduction in travel during COVID lock downs.  I shall have to see what I can track down.
     Hansen explains the aerosol impetus for warming acceleration at https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/AnnualT2023.2024.01.12.pdf
« Last Edit: March 05, 2024, 03:13:08 AM by Glen Koehler »
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Paul

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2024, 01:30:45 AM »
Still think the GAC contributed more to 2012s final figure than people think, I mean a large section of ice separated from the main pack and the theory such a deep low bought up warmer water to the surface seems plausible too me given the fast melt even after the storm. I do think we would of hit record lows that year regardless of the GAC but just not as low as it was.

Mind you, any talk of a hiatus I'm just not buying, we have seen 2019 and 2020 dropping below 4 million as a minimum extent, we saw 2020 being a record low during July by a long way and we saw a record low in July during 2021 very early on albeit briefly.

Even last year, despite a chilly start to the melt season, extent and ice conditions were worse than expected come September and the area to the north of CAA having thinner than average ice which the volume models are indicating is still the case.

As for this year, I do think a record low in September is still a low possibility but any record low during the summer melt season is significant for me and even more significantly if extent finishes below 4 million on Jaxa.

binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2024, 11:42:21 AM »
there was a long, exhaustive discussion on this hiatus n months ago (n quite large), and it all ended up simply with agreeing that 2007 and especially 2012 were outliers, or not agreeing with that.

And that discussion was not the only one! It is one of these recurring topics these last several years, with a recent posting by a respected and balanced member of our forum casually claiming a hiatus for the last10 years. I haven't really got the energy to go into all that again - which is why I called it "apparent" hiatus. I am not sure if it is there of if it isn't, but as I understand the general tenure of forum discussion, the majority seems to think that there is a hiatus linked to the so-called slow transition theory. If that is really the case (and it might be - why not?) then it is likely to persist until winter extents starts falling significantly.
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binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2024, 11:45:10 AM »
<snip> Glen, I will agree that one of the biggest contributors to annual melt is oceanic heat transfer (which includes the Atlantic low-pressure conveyor belt). But the causality of the "Greenland melt runoff" theory has not been proven.
    It's a theory I'd be proud to claim parentage of, but it is by El Cid not me.


I don't think either of you could lay claim to this "theory" - it is simply an old chestnut that has been rolling around for several years now. The more scientific version is along the lines of "if Greenland melt was to increase significantly, then the runoff might cause AMOC to stop", while the colloquial version is along the lines of "the [current/recent] cold spot in the Nort-Atlantic is due to Greenland runoff"
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El Cid

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2024, 11:57:31 AM »
binntho,

The Cold Blob was used as a main argument in the slowdown of AMOC by scientists (and they were criticized by other scientists). It does not really matter how much the blob was caused by Greenland runoff or other reasons. What I really wanted to point out is that the Blob is gone, subpolar NA SSTs are at a new high which signals to me (and I may not be right) that arctic-wise heat transport is once again strong (incidentally I believe that strong heat transfers (90s, early 00s) led to strong Arctic melt that lead to slowdown of the AMOC  and the "apparent" hiatus but that also led to a reacceleration of AMOC, hence the "see-saw") which makes it more and more likely that we will see very strong melt in the next few years. Maybe even during this melt season.

binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #24 on: March 05, 2024, 12:28:35 PM »
binntho,

The Cold Blob was used as a main argument in the slowdown of AMOC by scientists (and they were criticized by other scientists). It does not really matter how much the blob was caused by Greenland runoff or other reasons. What I really wanted to point out is that the Blob is gone, subpolar NA SSTs are at a new high which signals to me (and I may not be right) that arctic-wise heat transport is once again strong (incidentally I believe that strong heat transfers (90s, early 00s) led to strong Arctic melt that lead to slowdown of the AMOC  and the "apparent" hiatus but that also led to a reacceleration of AMOC, hence the "see-saw") which makes it more and more likely that we will see very strong melt in the next few years. Maybe even during this melt season.

Which may all be well and good. There certainly was a Blob, i.e. an area of colder than average sea surface temperatures south of Greenland, but what caused it is unclear - the runoff explanation doesn't hold, and the northerly winds explanations actually might be correct but nobody has crunched the numbers as far as I know.

Surface tempeparatures, only tell us what the temperature is at the surface. Heat transfer is not limited to the surface, but stretches down several tens or even hundreds of meters. As far as I know, nobody has shown that there was any reduction in heat transfer to the North Atlantic south of Greenland at the time of the Blob. The surface was colder, yeas, but was the AMOC slower? Was there less overturning? A reduction in heat transfer may have happened but it is far from clear that it did.

Heat transfer to the south-west of the Blob was unusually high, while on the other side of the Blob, up through the Greenland-Iceland-Scotland gate, heat transfer seemed to be unaffected. The latter of course is much smaller in volume than the former, but it is none the less more likely to be of importance to the Arctic Sea Ice, since it actualy reaches the Arctic. What happens to surface temperatures in the temperate zone south of Greenland may be totally irrelevant.
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kassy

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #25 on: March 05, 2024, 12:51:29 PM »
The blob is related to more precipitation in the area. It is the only resource that provides enough surface cooling.
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binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #26 on: March 05, 2024, 01:18:26 PM »
The blob is related to more precipitation in the area. It is the only resource that provides enough surface cooling.
Interesting and sounds likely. So precipitation from where, and by how much did it change - any metrics?
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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2024, 03:44:45 PM »
This post from Morganism on another page seems relevant to the conversation.
How melting Arctic ice leads to European drought and heatwaves
Fresh, cold water from Greenland ice melting upsets North Atlantic currents.

The Arctic Ocean is mostly enclosed by the coldest parts of the Northern Hemisphere’s continents, ringed in by Siberia, Alaska and the Canadian Arctic, with only a small opening to the Pacific through the Bering Strait, and some narrow channels through the labyrinth of Canada’s Arctic archipelago.

But east of Greenland, there’s a stretch of open water about 1,300 miles across where the Arctic can pour its icy heart out to the North Atlantic. Those flows include increasing surges of cold and fresh water from melted ice, and a new study in the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics shows how those pulses can set off a chain reaction from the ocean to the atmosphere that ends up causing summer heatwaves and droughts in Europe.

The large new inflows of fresh water from melting ice are a relatively new ingredient to the North Atlantic weather cauldron, and based on measurements from the new study, a currently emerging “freshwater anomaly” will likely trigger a drought and heatwave this summer in Southern Europe, said the study’s lead author, Marilena Oltmanns, an oceanographer with the United Kingdom’s National Oceanography Centre.

She said warmth over Greenland in the summer of 2023 melted a lot of ice, sending more freshwater toward the North Atlantic. Depending on the exact path of the influx, the findings suggest that, in addition to the immediate impacts this year, it will also trigger a heatwave and drought in Northern Europe in a more delayed reaction in the next five years, she said.
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The coming extremes will probably be similar to the European heatwaves of 2018 and 2022, she added, when there were huge temperature spikes in the Scandinavian and Siberian Arctic, as well as unusual wildfires in far northern Sweden. That year, much of the Northern Hemisphere was scorched, with “22 percent of populated and agricultural areas simultaneously experiencing heat extremes between May and July,” according to a 2019 study in Nature.
(more)

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/03/how-melting-arctic-ice-leads-to-european-drought-and-heatwaves/#p3


European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years

Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to the increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying mechanisms remain elusive, however. One potential link occurs through the ocean as the loss of sea ice and glacial ice leads to increased freshwater fluxes into the ocean. Thus, in this study, we examine the link between North Atlantic freshwater anomalies and European summer weather. Combining a comprehensive set of observational products, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies are associated with a sharper sea surface temperature front between the subpolar and the subtropical North Atlantic in winter, an increased atmospheric instability above the sea surface temperature front, and a large-scale atmospheric circulation that induces a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current, strengthening the sea surface temperature front. In the following summer, the lower-tropospheric winds are deflected northward along the enhanced sea surface temperature front and the European coastline, forming part of a large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly that is associated with warmer and drier weather over Europe. The identified statistical links are significant on timescales from years to decades and indicate an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance, with the exact regions and amplitudes of the warm and dry weather anomalies over Europe being sensitive to the location, strength, and extent of North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in the preceding winter

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2024, 04:12:18 PM »
Re the NA blob, we do have an open thread on the subject here:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3734.msg395662.html#msg395662

On other points raised in this thread, the Iceland Faroese stream has showed no sign of weakening when the blob was cold. In fact the the stream has warmed slightly, if anything :
https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/1225/2023/

We are grateful to have both the Osnap and Rapid 26N array to help us learn about the behaviour of the Amoc. And it seems we have a lot to learn yet.
From what I understand the Rapid array did detect a weakening circa 2009/2010 (which coincided with a cold European winter) but this weakening was not sustained.

OSNAP has not been running as long as the Rapid array but the main takeway from their observations is that the Labrador side (Osnap west) is a far weaker contributor to the overall circulation than the eastern side (Scotland to Greenland).



Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #29 on: March 05, 2024, 08:36:45 PM »
In case anybody else has been wondering about the recent absence of SMOS data

The University of Bremen tell me that SMOS went back in to "safe mode" on Sunday.

Despite the label, this graph was generated using SMAP data only:
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binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2024, 07:29:32 AM »
This post from Morganism on another page seems relevant to the conversation.
How melting Arctic ice leads to European drought and heatwaves
Fresh, cold water from Greenland ice melting upsets North Atlantic currents.
...

Thanks Bruce, interesting article although I must admit that the preamble read more like metaphysics than physics, and the causal chain is strangely missing from the discussion in the paper itself.

It also seems to have a lot of problems quantifying any freshwater anomalies, mostly since these have not been directly measured until very recently.

And of course, it says nothing about whether fresh-water influx from Greenland is or would be able to affect the AMOC or cause the infamous Blob!
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binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2024, 07:51:05 AM »
Just a quick reality check regarding meltoff from Greenland.

All meltoff is picked up by the East Greenland Current, directly or indirectly. This current contains cold, low-salinity Arctic waters in the top 150 meters, flowing at a rate of 2-3 Sverdrup and 30 psu.

The Greenland glaciers are losing water at a rate of 269 gigatons/year, which works out at 0.0000085 Sv on average, spread over most of the 40.000 km coastline of Greenland.

So on average, Greenland meltoff is adding some 0.0034% of the volume of the East Greenland Current, spread over thousands of kms. Even if we were to say that the entirety of the melt happens in the 3 summer months, the additional amount of water would still only reach 0.01% of the already low-salinity current, lowering the salinity by a potential 0.003 psu.

And all of this freshwater runoff never even enters the North-Atlantic!
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #32 on: March 08, 2024, 11:28:40 PM »
I am a voyeur rather than a commentator. I also acknowledge that nullschool many have issues when one tries and make a deduction from what it shows. Looking at my snapshot 2 things stand out for me. The SSTA for the EGC is really cold right now. Also the currents sending water into the Arctic are very warm.
I also know that ice volume and thickness is very low for this time of year. Could the SSTA for the EGC be telling you that there is a lot of ice melt leaving the Fram? Could also the high SSTA entering the Arctic mean the there is already a major attack coming in from the east?
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oren

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2024, 08:11:04 AM »
Still think the GAC contributed more to 2012s final figure than people think, I mean a large section of ice separated from the main pack and the theory such a deep low bought up warmer water to the surface seems plausible too me given the fast melt even after the storm. I do think we would of hit record lows that year regardless of the GAC but just not as low as it was.

Mind you, any talk of a hiatus I'm just not buying, we have seen 2019 and 2020 dropping below 4 million as a minimum extent, we saw 2020 being a record low during July by a long way and we saw a record low in July during 2021 very early on albeit briefly.

Even last year, despite a chilly start to the melt season, extent and ice conditions were worse than expected come September and the area to the north of CAA having thinner than average ice which the volume models are indicating is still the case.

As for this year, I do think a record low in September is still a low possibility but any record low during the summer melt season is significant for me and even more significantly if extent finishes below 4 million on Jaxa.
Spot on, agree on all points.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #34 on: March 09, 2024, 10:16:01 AM »
It's a close run thing!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/02/the-2024-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-09

Quote
JAXA extent is a whisker away from posting a new maximum for 2024.

AWI AMSR2 extent has already done so.
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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #35 on: March 09, 2024, 02:08:55 PM »
snip  Could the SSTA for the EGC be telling you that there is a lot of ice melt leaving the Fram? Could also the high SSTA entering the Arctic mean the there is already a major attack coming in from the east?
snip
These two images the show the movement of ice,

looking at NE Greenland you'll see the ice follows the shelf east, that suggests the ice entrained layer is a passenger on a deeper layer .
Where diagonals would meet gives the rough centre of the ice cover, this is where the ice expands from and left to it's own devices would rotate c/w around. Between that point and NE Greenland is the main compression zone for ice. The others being W. Laptev/Severnaya Zemlya and east of the N.S.I. . The weather and currents are moving the ice in such a way that little compression is taking place. For the last two tidal cycles the weather has been conducive to the import of Atl. waters which enters via Barents and through Fram. Once it passes some threshold it doesn't return and consequentially displaces Arctic waters south. With some wind assistance this is what is driving the turbulent melt off the east coast of Greenland, by the looks of it the flow is at various depths some actually on the shelf. I'm guessing that some of the flow south is also moving in and out of the fjords, that taken with the early disturbance of fast ice suggests an interesting calving season down the east coast. Again I'm guessing the Fram deep water export has gained some serious momentum over the last month, and now may be limiting Atl. penetration there, that would mean an increase in a recycling of that warm water down the coast adding to the melt.
The polarview image is from the 5th the animation shows the export of ice preventing it's recirculation and compression. Top left represents something like the centre of the ice.
So a lot of ice is leaving and being melted as it goes, water is leaving too allowing Atl. and Pacific waters easy entry. Much damage has been done and the time for recovery grows shorter but if the high over the Nordic seas persists it may surpress the building inertia somewhat. After that it will  depend on the weather around the full moon following the equinox but so far it looks quite bad for the ice this season.

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #36 on: March 09, 2024, 03:55:48 PM »
(2023 version)

Here is my update to the "Jim Pettit chart", adding the 2023/24 freezing season. This is assuming that we have passed maximum extent on February 28th (14.939 million km²).
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2024, 02:26:00 AM »
Thank you johnm33 for your good input.
One can not predict events that will happen in the short term, but there is no question that century events will shortly become annual, and what was thought would not happen until beyond 2100 (I remember those discussions as I am now considered an old man) will be happening well before I die.
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binntho

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #38 on: March 10, 2024, 07:45:22 AM »
The numbers are in and we have a new max,  14,308,774 km2.
34,090 km2 more than the faux max on February 23rd
34,767 km2 more than the almost faux max on February 27th

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2024, 08:11:13 AM »
The numbers are in and we have a new max

Not yet on all the assorted Arctic sea ice extent metrics though!

Let's see what the others say later today...

P.S. OSI SAF says a new high for the year as well, but the 5 day NSIDC average still has a way to go:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/02/the-2024-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-10
« Last Edit: March 10, 2024, 12:26:58 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2024, 11:43:46 PM »
Thank you johnm33 for your good input.
One can not predict events that will happen in the short term, but there is no question that century events will shortly become annual, and what was thought would not happen until beyond 2100 (I remember those discussions as I am now considered an old man) will be happening well before I die.
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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #41 on: March 11, 2024, 05:06:32 PM »
NSIDC 5 day trailing average sea ice area has not started to go down - instead it is going up strongly. Not only that, Nico Sun's one day graph shows those increases are likely to oersist for a few days yet.

Definitely an odd year - see the Okhotsk & St Lawrence sea ice area graphs attached. Both extreme peripheral seas and completely different. I blame this El Nino.
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #42 on: March 11, 2024, 11:24:08 PM »


Images show that in the Okhotsk the water is colder than normal and the wind is blowing off shore from colder land. In the St. Lawrence, upstream is somewhat warmer than normal, the lakes are largely ice free and the winds are blowing up river from far warmer than normal waters.
In these 2 examples weather patterns have affected local ice conditons. Whether or not the ENSO is responsible I have no clue. AGE definitely is responsible for the changing patterns we are now seeing regularly.
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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #43 on: March 12, 2024, 04:05:26 PM »
The last domino has fallen, and NSIDC 5 day averaged extent has reached a new high for 2024:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/02/the-2024-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-12

Quote
I wonder when the apparently ever expanding sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk will go into reverse?
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jdallen

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #44 on: March 12, 2024, 06:54:32 PM »
The last domino has fallen, and NSIDC 5 day averaged extent has reached a new high for 2024:
<snip>


Personally, I think the cosmic giggle factor just wanted us to look silly for thinking the max happened at the end of February.   

:P ;) ;D
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #45 on: March 13, 2024, 01:03:27 AM »
One thing we tend to forget is that one of the forecasts by climate change scientists is that systems will become more chaotic with bigger gyrations. The trend will be in a particular direction, but getting there will not be a straight line. The bumps in the road will become a lot bumpier. 20 years ago a decline of the magnitude this great would have guaranteed a max. Now, we wait, because it could just be a big bump.
Not to take way from Jim. The signals were all there. Hotter than normal northern oceans. Major arctic cyclones in a short time span. Thinest ice in a long time. A big decline that dropped for a few days. Than the fickleness of chaos steps in 😁
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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #46 on: March 13, 2024, 09:48:37 AM »
One thing we tend to forget is that one of the forecasts by climate change scientists is that systems will become more chaotic with bigger gyrations.

I always think of a top, how it wobbles more as it slows down...
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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #47 on: March 13, 2024, 02:25:58 PM »
Not to take way from Jim. The signals were all there.

I did open the thread with "No doubt it's slightly premature"!

How about this one as a keeper?
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El Cid

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #48 on: March 13, 2024, 05:13:44 PM »
Well, if not this one then the next one. It'll eventually go down. No gold medal for figuring this out

:):)

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Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #49 on: March 13, 2024, 06:09:26 PM »
Not to take way from Jim. The signals were all there.

I did open the thread with "No doubt it's slightly premature"!

How about this one as a keeper?

Storm near Okhotsk might help slow that icemaker down?
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