JAXA extent minimum 2024: June poll

[Steven]

There always used to be polls on this forum at the beginning of June, but nobody has created one yet this year.  So here is a belated poll.

This poll is for the daily JAXA extent minimum for 2024.  Below is a list with the values for previous years (in million km²).

year    minimum
2012    3.18
2020    3.55
2019    3.96
2016    4.02
2007    4.07
2023    4.14
2015    4.26
2011    4.27
2018    4.46
2017    4.47
2008    4.50
2022    4.52
2021    4.61
2010    4.62
2013    4.81
2014    4.88
2009    5.05
2005    5.18
2002    5.51
2006    5.63
...

[HapHazard]

I was wondering when polls would show up. I'm still awaiting my favourite one, the NW Passage opening date poll.

Anyway, I like to vote early, it feels like cheating waiting until the last minute 

3.75 to 4.25

[Stephan]

I also chose the 4.00 ± 0.25 M km² bin. I have the feeling that this year will be close to 2007 or 2016 when it comes to the JAXA minimum day in September.

[The Walrus]

Difficult choice.  Two of the last five years were above 4.50 and two were below 4.00.  Based on that, my selection of 4.00 - 4.50 has a 20% chance of being correct.

[KenB]

3.75 - 4.25 for me also, but I'm secretly hoping for over 4.25.

[Paul]

4.00 to 4.50 I went for, may of even went one higher if it was not for the Beaufort melt ponding which is quite notable to say the least.

Volume models have indicated positive ice anomalies on the Siberian side of the basin so hopefully that will help keep extent figures up. Also at this moment in time, the ice pack is largely compacted over the CAB unlike looking at it this time last year which possibly played some sort of role why extent dropped as low as it did in the end.

Will definately be keeping an eye on the ice to the north of the CAA, I really have a feeling we may see something unprecedented the back end of the summer given the negative volume anamolies and the fact the ice already looks quite mobile.

[be cause]

If the weather continues to keep Greenland's cold from protecting the ice , this will be the year that shatters records . The movement of ice in Nares st. today suggests Lincoln sea will not be the last bastion it might otherwise have been , so I've already lowered my prediction ( now 2.5-3.0 ) .

[oren]

3.75-4.25, for lack of a better guess. As usual, it could easily go above (up to a certain point) or below (with a higher miss).

[Iceburn]

I reckon it will end just above 4million.

[gerontocrat]

At the end of May PIOMAS sea ice volume was 13th lowest in the satellite record

Data from NSIDC...
Peripheral seas area and extent are below the 2010's average.
But it is melt in the High Arctic that mostly determines the minimum. And there sea ice area and extent remains well above the 2010's average and melt remains mostly slow.

So I am going for 4 to 4.5 million km2 for the JAXA extent minimum.

But given the transition from El Nino to ENSO neutral and perhaps La Nina uncertainty is even higher than usual?

[Freegrass]

I can see that most people are being conservative this year, but I think this will be an exceptional year, with extreme weather, and maybe even an august storm again. So I'm going for the record.

Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km², but really below 3 million km² for the first time.

[Chuck]

Going 4.25 to 4.75. As Gerontocrat pointed out High Arctic Sea ice Area remains high and the peripheral seas only have a minimal impact on the minimum. Additional cryospherecomputing’s high arctic accumulated albedo warming potential anomaly remains below that of 2013.

[Bruce Steele]

I will go for 3.5 to 4.00 . If the Beaufort gets hit hard maybe it will allow some erosion to one edge of the basin.

[johnm33]

The losses through Fram, plus a growing current flowing out there from the Canadian side which runs between the pole and Greenland, means very little gets to recirculate. Laptev is being cleared allowing the whole pack to expand thin and rotate so with incoming waters from the Pacific the Chukchi/ESS will clear quickly once conditions are ripe. Already the incoming Pacific waters are warming Beaufort and causing pressure on the CAA passages, and Nares shows signs of significant flows of both the arctic atlantic water layer and actual '24 atlantic waters passing through. Already turbulence across Lomonosov is preparing to create an open sea area on the NSI/Laptev side south of the pole. Taken together the oceans dynamics will need only a little assistance to make a record so I've gone for 2.75-3.25

[Iceburn]

If I was held at gunpoint my final prediction for the Ice will be 4.08 this year. Anyone else?

[jdallen]

3.75-4.25, for lack of a better guess. As usual, it could easily go above (up to a certain point) or below (with a higher miss).

My assessment as well.

However, I’m watching the current conditioning  taking place in the CAB with great interest.  I suspect our estimate may be on the high side.

[Steven]

There's about 24 hours left to vote in this poll, or to change your vote.

I voted low: 3.5-4.0.  But it's hard to have confidence in this, due to conflicting data.  Some of the metrics (such as NSIDC area) suggest the melting has been weak in the last few weeks, while some other metrics suggest there has been strong melt.  Looking at Worldview, it seems to me that surface melting and preconditioning has been strong recently.  Moreover, weather forecasts suggest the 850 mb temperatures will stay above normal over most of the Arctic Ocean for at least the next several days.

[sadmird]

I felt like going with the flow and estimated that the final result will be around 4M, give or take a bit. It was somewhat more realistic to be a bit above, like 4.1M or more.
However, once I saw that the fram export started increasing above average in June, combined with weather preconditioning during that same period, I felt like going below 4M is getting more realistic, despite the statistics "prediction" would tell me otherwise, based on raw sea ice and sea extent numbers overall. Despite that, I'll leave it at 3.75-4.25 bin.

It's going to be much easier to make a good estimate on final result once we get to early/mid July because that's when we generally experience the "results squeeze" due to outer areas melting out almost completely and then it's all about the High Arctic and the condition of the central area, but it all comes down to so many factors that a high miss is still possible even in mid-July.

[Richard Rathbone]

Is there going to be a  July poll?

 This seems to  be a bad year for predictions. I think its the first year without NSIDC here, and the Sea Ice Prediction Network seems to have ceased operation too.

My current prediction would be 3.5-4

[Steven]

Is there going to be a  July poll?

 This seems to  be a bad year for predictions. I think its the first year without NSIDC here, and the Sea Ice Prediction Network seems to have ceased operation too.

I've just created a July poll for JAXA extent here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4233.0.html.

If someone wants a poll for NSIDC extent, feel free to create one.  Normally Juan Garcia creates all those polls but unfortunately he stopped posting on the forum a few months ago.

P.S. the Sea Ice Prediction Network has a brief June report here, but it's not as extensive as in previous years:
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2024/june