Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The Canary in the Coal Mine  (Read 4672 times)

Vergent

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 573
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 2
The Canary in the Coal Mine
« on: August 23, 2013, 06:16:50 PM »


With its 30% definition of "extent" DMI extent is the canary in the coal mine with respect to the popping of the extent balloon. Assuming this is not another glitch, vast areas are dropping below 30% and we will soon be below 2009 & 10 on DMI. The NSIDC, MASIE, and JAXA will follow. 30% ice does not survive the fall storms.

Vergent
« Last Edit: August 23, 2013, 08:57:14 PM by Vergent »

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5492
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 724
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2013, 07:55:25 PM »
With its 30% definition of "extent" DMI extent is the canary in the coal mine

Isn't that the "new" DMI extent chart, which now uses an "industry standard" 15% threshold?

The 30% version looks a bit different:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Vergent

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 573
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2013, 08:14:48 PM »
My bad.

Neven's link on ASIG doesn't go to the page with the explanation. The loss rate is just as alarming for 15%. Do they have a numerical archive? It looks like DMI lost 1,000k in a week. If true, and not a glitch of some sort, it ratifies my contention that there is no speed limit for extent loss when there is a low CAPIE and parallel melting. Where there was one when the melting was limited to the edges.

Vergent

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7971
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1164
  • Likes Given: 575
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2013, 08:19:57 PM »
Neven's link on ASIG doesn't go to the page with the explanation.

Sorry about that, Vergent. Give me the link and I'll attach it to the graph on the ASIG.

Quote
Do they have a numerical archive?

Not online, I believe, though Larry Hamilton had a contact there and would let us know the numbers occasionally last year.

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Vergent

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 573
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2013, 08:54:07 PM »

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7971
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1164
  • Likes Given: 575
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2013, 08:56:35 PM »
Thanks, Vergent. Fixed now.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Vergent

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 573
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2013, 11:02:45 PM »
Jim Hunt, Neven,

Thanks for pointing out my error. And thanks for fixing the link. In looking at the DMI description I followed their data source link. That led to the osisaf data portal.

http://www.osi-saf.org/index.php

They have a number of interesting products, some that I have not seen before.




Not the least of which is their "Ice types" product.



Its higher resolution and of a significantly different opinion from the Russian product(the only MYI/FYI product on ASIG). It is near real time rather than weekly so I suggest that this would be a useful addition to ASIG this winter, right now, all arctic ice is ambiguous, so it is simply ice extent, but come Jan 1, it should be of interest.

http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/type/type.shtml

Here is the link to the quick look archive.

Vergent


Phil.

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 382
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2013, 01:35:23 AM »
Vergent, that is the russian product, see the © statement in the legend.

Vergent

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 573
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2013, 06:28:24 AM »
Vergent, that is the russian product, see the © statement in the legend.

Yes and the top one is OSISAF, the data source DMI credits. They both are clearly labeled, I was comparing them.

Vergent

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The Canary in the Coal Mine
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2013, 07:46:01 AM »
Nevin, the label at above the DMI graph still says 30%.