I’ve clicked through the ECMWF free access 10-day forecast too. And like you, I saw some remarkable patterns emerging. Another blocking event over Greenland combined with a ‘warm high’ filling in the high Arctic. The last one slipping in from the Chukchi sector.
Once again, we’re not seeing the ‘transport-band’ that kept the Barentsz-Kara region amazingly ice-free like a year ago.
I honestly find it very hard to get a notion of what this winters’ patterns are cooking up for the next melting season. I saw some ‘traditional’ parameters indicating help for sea ice. FI extent, area, extreme Feb cold, positive SST anomaly gradually weakening.
I have too small background to say anything reliable on whether these winter patterns are decisively different from other years. But I have a gut feeling they are. We enter the change of season in both hemispheres with another large scale reset (another SSW/NH? What about ENSO etc).
In the Antarctic, the lasting pattern over the Peninsula changes, finally warming the region, hurting the enormous Weddell FYI pack and driving up SST in the Amundsen Sea.
In the North Atlantic, record negative NAO. Very high SLP around Iceland, very low to the West of the Iberian Peninsula.
And yes, the remaining ‘safe-pack’, 1,8 Mkm2 ‘mesh-pattern’ coherent ice with the left-over MYI could be dragged out direction Beaufort/Chukchi for days.