Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?  (Read 50710 times)

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« on: August 13, 2014, 07:48:22 PM »
This refers to geoengineering to stop the effects of AGW, not AGW itself.

So, is the Arctic being geoengineered in secret?

No. It is not.  8)

Siffy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 179
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2014, 07:52:46 PM »
This refers to geoengineering to stop the effects of AGW, not AGW itself.

So, is the Arctic being geoengineered in secret?

No. It is not.  8)

{/thread}

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2014, 09:12:11 PM »
Even not in secret, how could this conceivably be done? I got the sense from some previous posts on the 2014 Melt Season thread that a few people at least entertained the possibility.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2014, 10:05:41 PM »
Even not in secret, how could this conceivably be done? I got the sense from some previous posts on the 2014 Melt Season thread that a few people at least entertained the possibility.

How it could be done without remote sensing being aware, especially as it seems to be being posited as an explanation for the last two years, that is the question.

Probably the simplest way would be adding sulphur to aviation fuel, but this would result in more clouds, and it's not clear that would cool the Arctic, except around the solstice.

NeilT

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2982
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 244
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2014, 10:31:45 PM »
That would be measurable surely.  Especially as we pulled all the sulphur we could from the power stations and diesel fuel to avoid acid rain.  Surely we are monitoring that situation.

Any spike like that would register somewhere.

Ironic that the sulphur we had to pull from the atmosphere to save our forests was a strong reflectant.  So to improve our immediate environment, we hasten the destruction of our livable habitat for the next generations.

I can't see that there is anything they could do secretly which would impact the Arctic in this way.  Why would they spend the money when they could get a better result purely by encouraging better land use.  They have said many times that it's not worth making the changes until we "know for sure".  There is no way they'd risk the censure by doing something in secret.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2184
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2014, 11:17:06 PM »
It is easy to make assertions, not based on fact but rather based on hubris.  Even the misapplication of "Occam's Razor" when attempting to discount the unlikely is an exercise in magical thinking.

In the event that some technique has been developed and deployed, one possibly using very trace elements released into the ionosphere and orbital equipment using a form of magnetic or radio energy beam to produce variable density gradients in the upper atmosphere, the ability for detection of this type of targeted upper-atmosphere manipulation would require some form of orbital Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor,  Like the one found on the doomed GLORY satellite.  (a technology that had been advocated by James Hansen as early as 1985 and still not realized)

http://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-science-satellite-lost-in-424-million-launch-failure/

Quote
Tough track record for Taurus
 This was the second failure in a row for a Taurus XL rocket. NASA's $273 million Orbiting Carbon Observatory was lost during launch Feb. 24, 2009, when it suffered a similar nose cone fairing failure. Orbital Sciences redesigned the system in the wake of that failure, replacing a hot-gas pressurization system with more robust nitrogen system borrowed from the company's Minotaur rockets.

"This is a pretty tough night for all of us," Grabe said. "A little over two years ago, we had a similar tough night when we conducted a Taurus launch for the OCO mission. That mission suffered a failure ... of the fairing to separate. We conducted an extensive investigation of that anomaly and we traced the most probable cause to a failure of the fairing separation initiation system.

"We spent the last two years doing the analysis on what went wrong the last time, redesigning the system and testing the components of the system. We went so far as to completely change out the initiation system to a system we use on one of our other vehicles, the Minotaur 4. And in the intervening two years, that system has flown successfully three times. So we really went into this flight feeling confident we had really nailed the fairing issue. And then we came up with the results Omar described

Of course, there is absolutely no proof, or even indication that this type of modification could possibly be taking place.  That being said, the changes in the jet stream patterns are so great now, the change in the ice loss patterns so non-typical, the sudden shift in the PNA index to negative, corresponding with cooler summer temperatures, all indicate some kind of sea change in the arctic.

Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2184
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2014, 12:15:58 AM »
and then there is the other side of the story, people using the body of work that they have developed up to this point, and consolidating current new information into the neat packet of the body of knowledge that has been assembled up to this point.



If you look at this closely, you will see that there is no real understanding of the cause of the shifts, only a plethora of theories that are just as valid as any other.
Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2014, 12:41:51 AM »
If you look at this closely, you will see that there is no real understanding of the cause of the shifts, only a plethora of theories that are just as valid as any other.

I'm afraid that's simply not true.

It is absolute nonsense to assume that all explanations in this matter are equally valid. And to assume that because scientists don't know everything, they clearly know *nothing* is one of the most ludicrous things a person can possibly do. Yes, there are gaps in scientific knowledge; there always will be. But it should be left to only the religious zealot to observe any one of those gaps and invent something out of whole cloth to fill it. It's illogical to proclaim, "Scientists don't yet know why the ice didn't melt out all the way this year, so *obviously* there's a massive, incredibly expensive, highly-sophisticated, enormously effective, potentially catastrophic, unprecedentedly secretive, multi-governmental, Arctic-wide ice-saving project underway!"

FWIW, I don't believe Occam's razor was "misapplied". When you have two competing theories or explanations for why something is happening, the simpler one is better. And given the utter lack of observed evidence for any global conspiracy to cool the Arctic, the wise person jettisons the notion on its merits, and doesn't cling to it because they like the way it sounds.

"We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances." -- Isaac Newton

Siffy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 179
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2014, 12:44:48 AM »
If you look at this closely, you will see that there is no real understanding of the cause of the shifts, only a plethora of theories that are just as valid as any other.

I'm afraid that's simply not true.

It is absolute nonsense to assume that all explanations in this matter are equally valid. And to assume that because scientists don't know everything, they clearly know *nothing* is one of the most ludicrous things a person can possibly do. Yes, there are gaps in scientific knowledge; there always will be. But it should be left to only the religious zealot to observe any one of those gaps and invent something out of whole cloth to fill it. It's illogical to proclaim, "Scientists don't yet know why the ice didn't melt out all the way this year, so *obviously* there's a massive, incredibly expensive, highly-sophisticated, enormously effective, potentially catastrophic, unprecedentedly secretive, multi-governmental, Arctic-wide ice-saving project underway!"

FWIW, I don't believe Occam's razor was "misapplied". When you have two competing theories or explanations for why something is happening, the simpler one is better. And given the utter lack of observed evidence for any global conspiracy to cool the Arctic, the wise person jettisons the notion on its merits, and doesn't cling to it because they like the way it sounds.

"We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances." -- Isaac Newton

Indeed, or to distil this down to a tl'dr form.

Weather is the simple and best explanation for the melt season, weak winds account for a good deal of the lack of melt.

notjonathon

  • New ice
  • Posts: 47
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0

Anne

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 531
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2014, 01:45:44 AM »
Well, I dunno. This is all a bit embarrassing really. Can't we have a separate section of the forum to discuss this, visible only to those with a sekrit code?  ;D

sofouuk

  • New ice
  • Posts: 82
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2014, 01:50:55 AM »
no one seems to have said it here yet, so I will: surely the reason the arctic isn't being geoengineered is because it's so damn big, and there's so little human activity up there. assuming the effect of the engineering is not completely negligible, how could our putative evil genius hope to achieve so much with so little? there's no need to resort to philosophical arguments (Occam's razor): given the plausible level of inputs, how could you possibly hope to achieve a measurable effect over the whole arctic?

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 989
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 128
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2014, 02:19:22 AM »
It might be.  But if we ever find out about it, then it won't be a secret.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2184
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2014, 03:02:38 AM »
If you look at this closely, you will see that there is no real understanding of the cause of the shifts, only a plethora of theories that are just as valid as any other.

I'm afraid that's simply not true.

It is absolute nonsense to assume that all explanations in this matter are equally valid.

My apologies Jim, that quote regarding a plethora of theories was specifically referring to the information presented in the video by the Yale Climate Forum, discussing the changes in the arctic and the resilient ridge (PDO) factor and the different theories associated with what is causing it.  There are also other contributing theories including changes in tradewind patterns and shifts caused by pollution aerosols that are also part of the accepted body of work.  At this point these theories are all either in competition and/or support each other as contributing factors.

But all that is certainly agreed upon at this time is that things are changing.
Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2184
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2014, 03:10:25 AM »
Occam's Razor

https://www.academia.edu/1742741/Occams_Razor_The_principle_of_Parsimony

Quote
To put it more succinctly, when there are two (or multiple)competing theories which make exactly the same predictions, the one that recruits only those assumptions which are necessary is the one which is more likely to be correct. It is also more likely that such theories will, as a consequence, be simpler. Note then that the razor, as a principle, can be used to separate two theories that make the same predictions. However, it does not, in any way, rule out the possibility that other theories might make a different though equally evidenced prediction. So, Occam's razor is only concerned with situations where the competing theories are equivalent and where there is no evidence available at this time that could show which one was true. As such it is no more than a reasoning heuristic used to guide thinking in areas where, on other grounds, it may be difficult to distinguish between theoretical accounts.

In other words:

Occam's Razor does not a proof make.
Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2543
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2014, 09:47:23 AM »
Just a question, (not secret) does the international flyghts at 10.000 meters (or around) do bring some particles that do affect the melting ? Someone posted a photo of the beaufort this spring and it was full of trails from airplanes...This flights go on and on, we tend to forget them but they are here.

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2543
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2014, 10:21:16 AM »
That is just occuring to me that if the answer is yes these trails do affect the melting then if an oil industry wanted to modify it, it just have to add a bit more particles in the fuel they supply and no one will notice ?

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2014, 11:05:50 AM »
... I'll believe it when I read about it in a journal.
You definitely do not understand the scale and nature of the current predicament (or may be you just make it seem like that's the case on purpose, possibly with a noble intent), in my humble opinion.

Define 'our predicament'.

Do you honestly believe some journal(s) will be allowed to write about ongoing large-scale geo-engineering effort in the Arctic (if or when such an effort begins)?...

Manhattan was only one governement, Arctic science is international. How does one hide the signal of geoengineering in raw radiometer data from MODIS? Answer - it cannot be done without leaving a trace of it being done.

What do you think the Russian Government would do if they found out the Americans were geo-engineering over what the Russian's clearly consider to be their Arctic. Given their current problems with NATO do you think they would miss the chance to kick up a fuss?

Before answering this, if you haven't already done so, I suggest you watch Russia Today - the voice of the Kremlin, that spends most of its time muck-raking against the west.

Actually I'll start a thread on this, don't reply to these points here, reply on the "Is the Arctic being geoengineered?" thread.
Chris, i am only replying here - against my previous intention not to, - because you asked me to do so. Let me write it more clearly: because YOU asked me to do so. Otherwise, this would go as a PM to you.

First, i am very glad you did not take any offense from my previous message (quoted above). There was none. Amazingly, someone else did, and left a public message about it in the previous topic. I am glad to mention that i sent a PM to the guy, explaining his error politely, and his response to my PM was, in entirety: "You're right, I over-reacted and got some things wrong to boot. I'm sorry for that." I am grateful to him for his understanding, and for courage to admit his error. His answer is definitely the way to go for any honest scientist in such a situation.

Second, to define "our predicament". In the context of this discussion and in my a bit informed opinion, our predicament is the difficulty which powers that be currently have, but most importantly will increasingly have in the observable future (2020s, 2030s) in maintaining presently existing globalized industrial society, with most of its institutions continuing their function, while in the same time preparing for the inevitable crash of it.

You see, Earth climate is definitely screwed, and is getting worse quickly. Last decade statistics about number and strength of hurricanes, about floods, about droughts and desertification, worldwide - are jsut a few indicators of it. I hope you are familiar with them. AFAICT, "additional" damage done is already counted in hundreds of billions of US dollars _annually_ (if not to exclude 3rd world countries, that is).  Existance of the modern globalized industrial civilization requires stable and agriculture-friendly-enough climate. Therefore, while public "debates" cons and pros of geo-engineering, writes petitions against "irresponsible" intents about it, etc etc, - powers that be will act without much (if any) consideration about public opinion, whatever ways possible.

The definition above, in turn, may raise further questions, such as:
1) what are "powers that be"?
2) why any difficulty which "powers that be" may have - is _our_ predicament?
3) what's so difficult about it - isn't modern society going on by itself with no help needed?
4) why modern globalized industrial society will "inevitably crash"?
5) what preparations powers-that-be take, and why nobody hears about those?

Answers to them, as far as i know, are:
1) those are people who have the power to make and enforce most important and massive decisions made on the level of most developed countries, largest international corporations, most powerful military forces of the world, most powerful and big financial institutions. Their existance is certain. Their abilities are ultimate. Their intellect is very high. Their obligations and duties (both internal and external) are massive and hands-tying. Many of them are merciless and cruel. They are "elite". Most importantly, those are people who have the most ability (in compare to any other class of people in the world) to implement policies - i.e. to do something which is not just "profitable" in the sense of short-term money gain.
2) because most of us (here, at least) are critically dependent on continued existance and functioning of global industrial system. Our food, our clothes, goods and items we need and buy, - need to be available, i.e. made, somewhere somehow. And transported. Mankind also needs lots of electricity and raw matherials (for building, repairs, etc), herbs and substances (for medicine), etc. Therefore, when part of this global system has difficulties - and powers that be are a part of this system, much comparable to brain being a part of human body, - we have a predicament. If powers that be will fail to perform their "tune, control and steer" function within the global system, - then most likely the system will fail. Much like human body, which doesn't live (any long) without a brain. Ultimate result would probably be unnatural death of most of us. If that's not "our predicament", then what is.
3) nope, modern global industrial civilization does not go "by itself", with no help needed. It was the case up to ~1990s, i guess. But, not anymore. Oil prices are not actually "free" in many parts of the world, anymore. Agriculture is massively donated from state budgets - if it wouldn't be, then it would become non-profitable activity, and with capitalistic system, it means it'd fail to exist. Nitrogen cycle of Earth is in big trouble, and things grow - possibly in most of areas which have vegetation presently, - only because humans keep making and using mindblowingly huge amounts of fertilizers every year. Climate-related disasters produce increasingly massive destruction, which _demand_ massive help - lots of which comes definitely not via "free market" methods; few of most known, quite recent and large-scale examples are hurricanes in New Orleans (2005), in New York area (2013, was it?), massive floods in Russia's far east regions (2013), in Europe (last ten years in a row - bottom of the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Europe list also has number of fatalities per each event), unprecedented droughts in Russia (2010), US (2010 to now - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9314_North_American_drought), etc. Similar in power disasters strike China, India, Pakistan and lots of other "less talked about" countries, as well. There are already countries which failed to the combined pressure of some of mentioned and other (more than a dozen) destabilizing factors - those are the five countries with "very high alert" status in this year's "fragile states index" (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index#Very_High_Alert ), and possibly few more among ones with "high alert" status, as well. It takes work to prevent same thing to happen with more developed countries, and as environmental degradation of the biosphere of Earth continues and intensifies, such work becomes more and more massive - and thus, it becomes more and more difficult to do it.
4) It's not sustainable. Combination of laws of physics (burning hydrocarbons is easy and huge energy, given Earth's oxygen-rich athmosphere, and the fact that both carbon and hydrogen are lighter atoms than oxygen, plus the fact that carbon binds TWO oxygen atoms when burning - results in very attractive weight/power ratio for hydrocarbon fuels), capitalistic system (cheeap things win, period) and inertia of mankind's infrastructure (we've built fossil-fuel-based systems for more than a century, and each damn thing has an OWNER who's not happy to have his property to become useless, isn't he) - results in impossiblity of any quick change. Give it at least another half a century, while applying constant and massive pressure through policies for it to change - and may be it'd become significantly more sustainable than now. But we do not have 50 more years of business-as-usual. We don't even have 10. In fact, we're already past the point of no-return; most recent papers on the subject are conclusive. Guy McPherson has a good list of some of them on his nature bats last (no, i don't agree with him about human extinction being inevitable, but this in no way makes his collection of links less impressive; among some which are definitely not so convincing, he has many which are).
5) Geez, of course very few people hear about them. If any. It'd be a panic, should full detail be revealed to the public. What's good in that - for public itself? Sadly, can't "save everyone". But some not-so-loud things are still known even by us commoners. Vaults to store seeds, like the big one in Norway. Massive underground cities which can house dozens of thousands of people in complete autonomy for half a year or longer, like the one under mount Yamantau in southern Ural mountains. This one has tunnels up to 19 meters in diameter, i've seen 1st-hand written testimonies from people who been there; there, underground, are 5-floor buildings inside those tunnels, literally, with appartments, massive air circulation systems, asphalt roads, etc. The facility is designed to house 40.000...60.000 people in full autonomy for half a year. It's secret facility with at least two circles of armed guards around it, and any tourists who try to get any close are escorted out by military folks. Russian officials were saying different things about it - sometimes it's said to be an uranium mine, sometimes - classified military facility, sometimes - a federal food storage reserve, sometimes its existance is simply denied. Facts are, creation of it started in late USSR years, and continued during 1990s (which were highly problematic in Russia). There even were protests from western officials about it - when Russia had no money for anything, including no money to pay its debts at once to western creditors, this project was still funded and going on. There even were fears in the West that Russia is going to restart the cold war, and Yamantau is part of the preparation. Thing is, Yamantau is Russia's "when SHTF" thing on a federal level - similar large installations exist in other countries as well. I've seen photos of one of those. Especially striking was the one where they grow rice right there, underground, using fully artificial illumination. For reasons which i hope are not nesessary to explain, i am not willing to disclose sources of the above information. I guess quite a few other signs of such preparations are possible to find even in public domain, and if the reader of this message will decide to find out what's what, he'll most likely find many, if his intellect and skill in using internet search queries are both well above average.



And to answer the rest of your message.

No, i don't think one hides the data from MODIS. Rather, i think one alters data from MODIS even before such data reaches any of "not involved" personnel. Given the recent scandal with Angela Merkel personal mobile phone, which was (as they say, without her knowing) hacked by US federal services, - and US is "friendly" to Germany, even, - i see no technical problem whatsoever in a possible secret services involvement in altering MODIS and other relevant data very close to the point of direct instrumental measurement, in order to hide whatever they want to hide in the Arctic. If done well, it won't even produce any many inconsistencies detectable, if any at all. Also, i do not exclude the possibility of active and highly tunable real-time from Earth "intermidiary" device, installed on board of satellites, which is able to alter results of measurements taken in a highly tunable manner right up there, within the satellite itself, - because, don't forget, satellites with MODIS were launched by NASA, and NASA is US federal agency, which just _has_ to do things "like it or not", if ordered "from above", - such as if ordered by high-ranking enough CIA official, for example.

And no, i don' think russian government would make any fuss. Perhaps you are not so familiar with history of Russia. You see, when USSR fell apart, Russia became USSR's "son", in the sense that all debts, problems and obligations USSR had - became Russia's. Among other things, there was bankruptcy of the state's economy, big food problems, poverty, hyper-inflation. Basically, USSR fell on its knees and fell apart, and Russia's position was "on its knees" in the early 1990s. In such conditions, the victor of the cold war - the West, led by USA, - established quite many conditions and terms, under which it was agreed to allow Russia to exist as a single entity forward. Just one example: the country's current constitution was made in 1993 and is still in power, and one of "terms of capitulation" was that russian oil, gas and other mineral riches be available for foreign owners; as a result, even now, russian constitution mentions the country's land's mineral reserves being available for ALL sorts of owners, including privately owned companies. Only the country's shores are declared to belong to the people of the country. So you see, Russia is not really independent all this time since USSR fell apart; we, now, are just a colony of the West. Sad, but true. That's why you see all major western companies doing business in Russia nowadays. Ford? Sure. VW? Of course. Toyota? You bet. Etc etc. In the USSR, foreign goods were rare and often prized posession; in modern Russia, foreign things are everywhere you look. With all that in existanse - nope, government won't make a fuss at all. It is just a convinient political game to picture modern Russia as an "opponent", as a truly sovereign country which got its own fully independent political will. Which it is not. Putin is a strong politician, and yes, he made lots of difference over the years, decreasing the country's dependencies. His recent ban on food imports from the West is perhaps his largest achievement during ~15 years he's in top political leadership here - but many other things still remain. Last but not least, i am sure that nobody (of those who know) want the panic - not in the West, not here in Russia. Let's imagine that indeed, one morning, mr. Putin was visited by some high-position Federal Service of Security official, who presented him very detailed evidence of geo-engineering in the Arctic, done by US companies/services. I'll tell you what Putin would do 1st: he'd call Barak, and ask him: "hey, wtf are you doing in our Arctic, sir?" - and Barak would then tell: "Volodya, we are saving everyone's butt there - including your own. By the way, if you have any bright climatologist heads in your Academy of Sciences, - send them to US embassy in Moscow; we have work for them, and it's in your own interests, too. Oh, and don't be so silly as to make this issue public, or else". And i can imagine Putin, being smartass he is, replying: "I see. Ok, i'll see what i can do. Good night, Barak". But will he make a fuss, given the fact he was completing the Yamantau installation during 2000s (visiting nearby ski resort relatively frequently)? Geez, of course not.

Best of luck to you, Chris.


P.S. Manhatan was one government, but so is world nowadays - at least in some of political senses. Do you remember "Axis of evil", declared by Bush? 5 or 6 countries, most of them small, only Iran being a big country - that thing. Well, my guess is, those countries were in fact very last ones in the world which were not critically dependent (at least in some essential regards) from the West (the latter being US, UK, Canada, NZ, AU with parts of EU involved). I have reasons to suspect Iran was subdued since then. Basically, today, if US state department wants something, it gets it - no matter what hemisphere/region it is. No? =)
« Last Edit: August 14, 2014, 11:24:46 AM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

sofouuk

  • New ice
  • Posts: 82
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2014, 11:41:16 AM »
searching for something that might be vaguely relevant to the discussion at hand, we get: 'one alters the data from modis ... to hide whatever one wants to hide in the arctic'.

not really a testable prediction, then - we are to remain in the dark, conveniently allowing naked speculation to run riot

nukefix

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2014, 11:47:07 AM »
HAARP cannot be used to change the weather, it's just a radar. There's zero evidence that "chemtrails" contain any dubious chemicals. The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.

nukefix

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2014, 11:51:07 AM »
...and orbital equipment using a form of magnetic or radio energy beam to produce variable density gradients in the upper atmosphere,
Satellites can only generate a few measly kilowatts of power with solar panels, which surely is not enough to manipulate anything.

notjonathon

  • New ice
  • Posts: 47
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2014, 11:55:15 AM »
Quote
HAARP cannot be used to change the weather, it's just a radar.

You did see the /snark notice, didn't you? And you must have heard of all the HAARP conspiracies.

nukefix

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2014, 12:22:35 PM »
Quote
HAARP cannot be used to change the weather, it's just a radar.

You did see the /snark notice, didn't you? And you must have heard of all the HAARP conspiracies.
I just wanted to pre-empt discussions at that level of implausibility  :P

NeilT

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2982
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 244
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2014, 12:24:52 PM »
A very good and salient point in Occam's Razor

Quote
the one that recruits only those assumptions which are necessary is the one which is more likely to be correct

It takes no assumption to understand that CO2 and Global Climate change affects the weather systems and the circulation of the jet stream

It takes no assumption to understand that natural variability in the Arctic added to changes in the weather patterns can cause less melt.

It takes one HUGE assumption that some "entity" is interfering in the weather of the Arctic and engineering some change in the Arctic weather which will overcome the effect of all the sequestered heat.

Let's put it another way.  It took 200 years of the whole of humanity, working as fast as possible with every machine possible, to diminish Arctic ice volume by about 40%.

We expect to believe that this will be overcome by some minor program of geoengineering?  So small it's invisible to the scientific community and the public at large.

Personally that's an "assumption too far" for me.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2982
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 244
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2014, 12:29:50 PM »
Quote
HAARP cannot be used to change the weather, it's just a radar.

You did see the /snark notice, didn't you? And you must have heard of all the HAARP conspiracies.
I just wanted to pre-empt discussions at that level of implausibility  :P

It kills itself.  From the wiki page

Quote
It was reported to be temporarily shut down in May 2013, awaiting a change of contractors. As of May 2014, it has been announced that the HAARP program will be shut down later in the year.

Another "assumption" bites the dust....
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #25 on: August 14, 2014, 12:47:37 PM »
... The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.
Geez. What a certainty. Poor Angela Merkel had her phone secure... She was very certain about it. Just like you are certain about US secret services. Or so she fought, that is - http://www.dw.de/how-safe-is-merkels-mobile/a-17182025 . Now, we have http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/04/germany-inquiry-nsa-tapping-angela-merkel-phone being all-out. Haha. Who's next? =)

Hillarious, how even TOP ranked officials can be so darn naive about information technologies. Don't be like them. Learn on others' mistakes - not your own. ;)
« Last Edit: August 14, 2014, 12:55:28 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Siffy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 179
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #26 on: August 14, 2014, 01:19:37 PM »
... The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.
Geez. What a certainty. Poor Angela Merkel had her phone secure... She was very certain about it. Just like you are certain about US secret services. Or so she fought, that is - http://www.dw.de/how-safe-is-merkels-mobile/a-17182025 . Now, we have http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/04/germany-inquiry-nsa-tapping-angela-merkel-phone being all-out. Haha. Who's next? =)

Hillarious, how even TOP ranked officials can be so darn naive about information technologies. Don't be like them. Learn on others' mistakes - not your own. ;)

Not related the scale differential between the actions is many many orders of magnitude different. Tapping a phone vs secretly geo-engineering the entire Arctic.

This is a red herring and has no bearing on the actual point in contention.

You are searching for grand plots and conspiracies when simple variation in weather explains what is going on much more aptly.

a few of which are

1) Which people are responsible
2) How are 'they' geoengineering the Arctic so cheaply
3) If it's so easy to achieve why are climate scientists unaware of this amazing method
4) Why the secrecy when it's not detectable through any current instrumentation and thus side effects would be inscrutable.
5) What resource or methods are being used



nukefix

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #27 on: August 14, 2014, 01:45:27 PM »
Quote
It was reported to be temporarily shut down in May 2013, awaiting a change of contractors. As of May 2014, it has been announced that the HAARP program will be shut down later in the year.

Another "assumption" bites the dust....
Yes but EISCAT is still there for the benefit of the paranoid-community... :)

https://www.eiscat.se/

nukefix

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #28 on: August 14, 2014, 01:48:05 PM »
... The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.
Geez. What a certainty.
Well, I have been working with satellite imagery and dealt with space agencies for two decades so yes, I'm pretty darn certain that such tampering is not happening. So lets just lay this line of argumentation to rest for awhile ok.

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #29 on: August 14, 2014, 01:54:29 PM »
... The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.
Geez. What a certainty. Poor Angela Merkel had her phone secure... She was very certain about it. Just like you are certain about US secret services. Or so she fought, that is - http://www.dw.de/how-safe-is-merkels-mobile/a-17182025 . Now, we have http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/04/germany-inquiry-nsa-tapping-angela-merkel-phone being all-out. Haha. Who's next? =)

Hillarious, how even TOP ranked officials can be so darn naive about information technologies. Don't be like them. Learn on others' mistakes - not your own. ;)

Not related the scale differential between the actions is many many orders of magnitude different. Tapping a phone vs secretly geo-engineering the entire Arctic.

This is a red herring and has no bearing on the actual point in contention.

...
Incorrect. It's not "tapping a phone vs g-e in Arctic", and never was. It was, and still is, "tapping a phone of the leader of the most economically powerful country of the European Union vs falsifying data from instruments of a few dozens scientific devices". Your failure to - or intent to simulate inability to, - understand the conversation makes any meaning to comment on the rest of your message irrational. Ergo, i won't.

Have a bad day. That's a wish, from me to you. You deserve.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #30 on: August 14, 2014, 02:02:02 PM »
... The US secret services will not be able to "hide" things in non-US satellite data, which include data from CSA, JAXA, ESA, Eumetsat and others.
Geez. What a certainty.
Well, I have been working with satellite imagery and dealt with space agencies for two decades so yes, I'm pretty darn certain that such tampering is not happening. So lets just lay this line of argumentation to rest for awhile ok.
Ok. After all, it was just an example. I am sure secret services have many ways to alter the data, at multiple stages. Bribery is quite effective. As are threats and blackmailing. America is known to bribe presidents of countries (economic hitmen - youtube it if you have no idea what it is) - and assasinate them when it's a case of a president who can't be corrupted; a little dirty work about some eggheads is nothing difficult for them. Another thing mentioned earlier - we don't know what methods of g-e are in use, where and when (within the Arctic itself) they are in use, and what signs there might be. Possible to confuse a consequence to be a cause, for example.

(not related to your quoted message):
I'm tired of this discussion, and i don't think i can add any more of significance. Especially seeing this topic getting bullied and "sillyfied" in a usual manner (this is not the 1st case i discuss this or similar issues).

Good bye.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #31 on: August 14, 2014, 02:25:04 PM »
F.Tnioli, don't go. I'm one of the people who disagrees with your hypothesis, but everything should be discussed. Ignore the brickbats. Stay and fight the good fight. It's a fun topic and it has the potential to draw out some serious discussion. Imagine the carnage on here if you're right!

Siffy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 179
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #32 on: August 14, 2014, 02:48:32 PM »

"vs falsifying data from instruments of a few dozens scientific devices".

Your failure to - or intent to simulate inability to, - understand the conversation makes any meaning to comment on the rest of your message irrational. Ergo, i won't.

Yes, because intercepting messages is exactly the same as over writing information on scientific instruments as they transmit. I take it you have a fundamental lack of understanding of how data transmission is actually performed as what you are suggesting is more or less impossible.

You've watched to many films if you think something like this is remotely feasible. Your ideas for how this is possible require a truly massive conspiracy across dozens of countries and agencies that would have been blown wide open by people like Bradley manning or Edward Snowden. The USA does not have nearly the kind of security on its intelligence apparatus that you assign to them.

iceman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #33 on: August 14, 2014, 02:51:36 PM »
... Imagine the carnage on here if you're right!

I also have doubts about clandestine geoengineering.  Yet some action to counter AGW, however panicked and flailing, is pretty much an eventuality.  Political will is lacking to pay for a true solution, such as finding alternatives to burning fossil fuels.  (Wouldn't it be prudent to keep some in reserve for our descendants to use at the next Milankovitch minimum?)  Inaction will soon be unacceptable - maybe only a few Sandy-scale storms away, whether or not they're firmly linked to climate change.  Geoengineering will be seen as the quick-and-dirty fix, and the Arctic is an obvious target.  It's where the greatest amplification is occurring, and the best earth-scale mechanism for seasonal thermal lag.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2014, 03:06:01 PM by iceman »

nukefix

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #34 on: August 14, 2014, 02:53:31 PM »
Ok. After all, it was just an example. I am sure secret services have many ways to alter the data, at multiple stages. Bribery is quite effective. As are threats and blackmailing.
American secret services have zero say in the use of non-military space assets of other space powers. If they prevented image acquisition over certain locations that would of course be spotted immediately (most polar-orbiting satellites can image the arctic roughly a dozen times per day. Tampering with images would also leave telltale marks. Then there are the users who get to downlink their data directly from the satellite which completely removes all middlemen from the process. I find it extremely unlikely that any "adversaries" could manage to tamper with the software that is being executed in the spacecraft considering the level of scrutiny and auditing to which flight-qualified software is exposed to.

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #35 on: August 14, 2014, 03:04:35 PM »
Imagine the carnage on here if you're right!

I also have doubts about clandestine geoengineering.  Yet some action to counter AGW, however panicked and flailing, is pretty much an eventuality.  Political will is lacking to pay for a true solution, such as finding alternatives to burning fossil fuels.  (Wouldn't it be prudent to keep some in reserve for our descendants to use at the next Milankovitch minimum?)  Inaction will soon be unacceptable - maybe only a few Sandy-scale storms away, whether or not they're firmly linked to climate change.  Geoengineering will be seen as the quick-and-dirty fix, and the Arctic is an obvious target.  It's where the greatest amplification is occurring, and the best earth-scale mechanism for seasonal thermal lag.

There's definitely an apocalyptic future story in there. Governments regularly make huge plays on high-risk outcomes, for far less good reasons than science. Electoral advantage is often sufficient motivation. A forum like this might be where such a move is discovered, by people taking a sideways look at the data.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7971
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1164
  • Likes Given: 575
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #36 on: August 14, 2014, 03:31:23 PM »
Have a bad day. That's a wish, from me to you. You deserve.

I'll let that one stand for everyone to see, and also add that this is a final warning. Heated discussion, fine. But you're just picking fights here.

It gets annoying very quickly to have to scan 1000+ word comments for insults. I'm not a policeman.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Rick Aster

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #37 on: August 14, 2014, 03:41:34 PM »
Just a question, (not secret) does the international flyghts at 10.000 meters (or around) do bring some particles that do affect the melting ? Someone posted a photo of the beaufort this spring and it was full of trails from airplanes...This flights go on and on, we tend to forget them but they are here.

I was surprised to see how many regular commercial air routes cross the Arctic Ocean (more than 30, by my rough count). Openflights.org provides a map at http://openflights.org/data.html#route. From the map, though, it seems that if there were a relevant effect from jet trails it would be 100 times more prominent in Europe, East Asia, and the contiguous United States.

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2543
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #38 on: August 14, 2014, 04:28:31 PM »
Thanks, very obvious that way. As gray wolf said we are already experimenting. The oil industry doesn't really need to add some compounds to have an effect on melting, they already do it. Water vapor at that altitude, I am pretty sure is strong to send back the energy and because of the fossil combustion, there is certainly some sulphur with it. The question is more can we measure the sulphur or the energy missing. We have some satellites measuring the energy just before entering the earth but is there the same down on the ground, I mean the ice ? the oden ship may be does that or any other ?
Considering that the early melting is certainly critical for futur melting in the season, a little bit energy missing at that moment could make a difference.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2014, 08:55:58 PM by Laurent »

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #39 on: August 14, 2014, 05:05:46 PM »
I think it's quite likely that an unpublicized geoengineering project would initially play out quite like current situation, with head scratching and remarked discontinuities compared to previous model predictions.

Not that that's an argument for secretive geoengineering: however I think that strenuous assurances that it "isn't" happening are like strenuous assurances of atheism: highly likely to be correct, but epistemologically presumptious.

Occam's razor is what tells us it probably isn't happening.

The engineering skeptic in me says that the first real evidence we'd have for a successful systemic intervention would be the disastrous, unintended consequences.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #40 on: August 14, 2014, 07:30:07 PM »
Why, HAARP,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Frequency_Active_Auroral_Research_Program, of course. (/snark)

I know its a snark, but seriously...

If you have the right kit, Spectrum Lab, a PC with soundcard, and a very large wire coil, you can pick up the VLF radio signals used to keep in contact with nuclear submarines whilst they are submerged - I have all three of those items. Why do I mention this? A major motive behind HAARP is to modulate the aurorea and effectively turn them into massive antennae for broadcasting VLF across the northern hemisphere, improving the reliability of attack orders to submarines. By attack orders I mean - launch all nuclear missiles according to attack plan ____.

But various dim wits have gotten themselves into a tizzy over weather control, mind control and similar crap.

In a similar fashion we had Woodpecker.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Woodpecker
Which was a royal pain in the arse for those of us who liked to listen into HF bands in the 1970s and 1980s.

So what was Woodpecker really? It was an Over The Horizon Radar designed to pick up the plumes of ionisation in the atmosphere in the wake of ICBM launches (on the mainland US). This has been confirmed since the fall of the Soviet Union.

As with HAARP, mundane military stuff, which the tin-foil-hat brigade make stories up about.

PS Spectrum Lab is a stunning piece of free software designed by a team of  very capable radio amateurs.
http://www.qsl.net/dl4yhf/spectra1.html

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #41 on: August 14, 2014, 07:56:42 PM »
Ok. After all, it was just an example. I am sure secret services have many ways to alter the data, at multiple stages. Bribery is quite effective. As are threats and blackmailing.
American secret services have zero say in the use of non-military space assets of other space powers. If they prevented image acquisition over certain locations that would of course be spotted immediately (most polar-orbiting satellites can image the arctic roughly a dozen times per day. Tampering with images would also leave telltale marks. Then there are the users who get to downlink their data directly from the satellite which completely removes all middlemen from the process. I find it extremely unlikely that any "adversaries" could manage to tamper with the software that is being executed in the spacecraft considering the level of scrutiny and auditing to which flight-qualified software is exposed to.

Well said. Anyone who has read the relevant papers and looked at the sort of data that is derived will realise the mathematical virtual impossibility of falsifying all the satellite data to hide a signature that will probably appear in more than one system, while leaving no trace that will not be picked up.

Those who doubt this need to start with "Satellite-derived vertical dependence of tropical tropospheric temperature trends" 2005, in which Fu & Johanson exposed the reason why Spencer and Christy's UAH satellite dataset was showing no atmospheric warming and blew an enormous hole in the then denialist meme of 'there is no global warming it's all down to urban heat island effects on the surface data'. That's just one of many papers where tiny details were pursued until the reality was made clear - something scientists do all the time.

Claiming that data can be mainipulated en masse is just showing how vague the claimant's appreciation of the science is. And I'm sorry Neven, I know you don't like heated argument, but I give the same treatment to those who accept AGW but make stupid arguments as I do to denialists when they start spouting unsupported c__p.


Anyway...

I'm sorry that F Tnioli has gone, really. But you cannot assert something such as s/he has done without being called out on it. I've recently asserted something as radical, when it started to take over the main thread I took it to a seperate thread and continued there (which is all I've done here as F Tnioli seemed unwilling to do so).

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2184
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #42 on: August 14, 2014, 09:06:11 PM »
you realize that he is a plant, probably, trying to disrupt discussion and cast a doubtful light on the quality of the forum's discussions.   

The Anagram "tinfoil" gave it away.  Such an obvious con.

Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

johnm33

  • Guest
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #43 on: August 15, 2014, 12:12:27 AM »
So this http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf is just a load of tosh then? As for haarp messing with the weather by bouncing stuff off the ionosphere, that's way over my head.
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/want-to-know-about-haarp/
As to what's actually possible i've no clue but if i was going to attempt to alter the situation in the arctic i would try early in the 'melt' to encourage lots of evaporation to get heat out of the ocean, and to limit insolation with fog. Then at the end of the season i would try to clear as much ice cover as possible in fairly short order to open up the ocean to the arctic night, and to get as much as possible of the ensuing evaporation to fall as freezing rain locally, again releasing heat up into the atmosphere.
If i were looking for signs of interference i would look for peculiar symetries like vortexs at the corners of an equilateral triangle or some such nonsense.

notjonathon

  • New ice
  • Posts: 47
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #44 on: August 15, 2014, 01:48:38 AM »
I guess I'm sorry I brought up HAARP when I was just trying to be funny. I only meant it as another way to poke fun at Tinfoil's assertions.

And yes, I think he's been trolling the Forum. We had another recently, and heroic Chris Reynolds has managed to deflect them both. But as long as they get shunted off to threads like this one, they do occasionally provide some amusement. They also help show us how disruptive tactics are being used to provoke arguments that are not germane to the conversation.

I'm called a newbie because I have been a lurker since the Forum was established; I was a regular reader of Neven's page long before that. Generally I don't comment because the work of Chris, Jim Hunt, Espen, Wipneus ASLR (and Friv), along with many other hard workers, far exceeds any contribution I might make.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #45 on: August 15, 2014, 02:49:34 AM »
you realize that he is a plant, probably, trying to disrupt discussion and cast a doubtful light on the quality of the forum's discussions.   

The Anagram "tinfoil" gave it away.  Such an obvious con.
Actually, I think that is his real name and that he is being earnest.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #46 on: August 15, 2014, 03:34:56 AM »
you realize that he is a plant, probably, trying to disrupt discussion and cast a doubtful light on the quality of the forum's discussions.   

The Anagram "tinfoil" gave it away.  Such an obvious con.

A meta-conspiracy theory.  ;D

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #47 on: August 15, 2014, 03:44:43 AM »
My takeaway from this excursion is that arctic is being geo-engineered, but not in secret. I'll use that elsewhere, thanks everyone.

But more seriously, geo-engineering may happen in the future and us civilians may not be given a voice in the matter. How we'll know is both an interesting science and philosophy question. Initially there'll be a period of observational bafflement. Then some arguments about the nature of conspiracy theories. Then it'll really be the long night of the tinfoil.

Interesting times for our children.

The fact that you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 574
  • Likes Given: 216
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #48 on: August 15, 2014, 07:24:47 AM »
you realize that he is a plant, probably, trying to disrupt discussion and cast a doubtful light on the quality of the forum's discussions.   

The Anagram "tinfoil" gave it away.  Such an obvious con.
Actually, I think that is his real name and that he is being earnest.

I did a little sleuthing, and F.Tnioli has been posting about the environment in various places for about 4 years.  S/He's not a new phenomena. I don't think s/he was either a troll or that his name is some sort of anagram.

While I think the idea of secret Geoengineering borders on delusional, I agree - I think F.Tnioli is in earnest.
This space for Rent.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Is the Arctic being geoengineered (in secret)?
« Reply #49 on: August 15, 2014, 07:13:41 PM »
So this http://csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf is just a load of tosh then? As for haarp messing with the weather by bouncing stuff off the ionosphere, that's way over my head.
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/want-to-know-about-haarp/
As to what's actually possible i've no clue but if i was going to attempt to alter the situation in the arctic i would try early in the 'melt' to encourage lots of evaporation to get heat out of the ocean, and to limit insolation with fog. Then at the end of the season i would try to clear as much ice cover as possible in fairly short order to open up the ocean to the arctic night, and to get as much as possible of the ensuing evaporation to fall as freezing rain locally, again releasing heat up into the atmosphere.
If i were looking for signs of interference i would look for peculiar symetries like vortexs at the corners of an equilateral triangle or some such nonsense.

John,

The HAARP stuff is nonsense, see my comment above. FWIW, my Job is in calibration, I was recruited to my firm as an RF expert, I started work after my degree (late 1980s) as an antenna rigger and engineer comissioning PMR and mobile phone systems, I've also worked in installation of PBXs and LANs using dedicated microwave links (point to point and point to multi-point). Want to discuss MPT1327 trunking, TETRA, or MotoTrbo?

The US Air Force document is dated and very blue-sky. Read the section on weather on page 27 about 'artificial weather', we're still quite a way off nano-tech weather modification. However, the Chinese are known to be actively engaging in cloud seeding (weather modification), so yes it happens.

But engineering a whole region???