Possible volcanic eruption under Icelandic ice cap - alert issued

[RaenorShine]

Possible volcanic eruption under a glacier in Iceland .....

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/18/iceland-volcano-risk-raised-to-orange

Bardarbunga is Iceland's largest volcanic system, located under the ice cap of the Vatnajokull glacier in the southwest of Iceland. It is in a different range to Eyjafjallajokull.

And there is really a huge earthquake storm at the moment.  Iceland met office monitor earthquakes on the following link. http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

This could get interesting for air travel in Europe if winds are in the right direction.

[viddaloo]

This could get interesting for air travel in Europe if winds are in the right direction.

Absolutely. It could also seal the fate of the Arctic Sea Ice, if not this year then possibly in the coming years, with all that extra ash landing on the MYI.

PS:

Icelandic Met Office has moved the warning level for air traffic up to Orange level (see here). GPS measurement have confirmed magma movements inside Bárðarbunga volcano and this movement is fast.

— Source

[A-Team]

I don't expect a whole lot to come out of this, climatically.

The biggest known eruption of Bárðarbunga, a VEI 6 in 1477, did not loft a whole lot into the stratosphere (nor did the 1783 Laki plume), though it did leave small peaks of nss sulfate (non sea salt) in ice cores on both poles.

A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism... implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years
Journal Of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres v118, 1151 doi:10.1029/2012JD018603 2013
M Sigl et al http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/502097/1/jgrd50082.pdf

See also http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=1339 and http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=765

[viddaloo]

Today's update at Jón's: «Little has changed since yesterday (18-August-2014) in Bárðarbunga volcano. Earthquake activity has been moving east and north-east since yesterday but continues at same rate as before. It is not clear why that is, but is getting close to Kverkfjöll volcano, but at the moment the earthquake swarm is inside a fissure swarm that belongs to Bárðarbunga volcano. I do not know what happens if magma from Bárðarbunga volcano gets into contact with magma in Kverkfjöll volcano.»

[Neven]

I do not know what happens if magma from Bárðarbunga volcano gets into contact with magma in Kverkfjöll volcano.»

A baby volcano will be born! 

[viddaloo]

LOL. Maybe one called 'Litle–Kverkar' (Little Strangler). Gotta love Iceland.

[viddaloo]

Yr today uploads this map of the potential ash cloud over Northern Europe if Bardar erupts today (Aug 21).

[RaenorShine]

Lots of debate on this happening over at Volcano Cafe http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/ with daily updates and discussion.  Looks to be fairly well balanced even if most of it goes right over my head!

[A-Team]

Officials there don't think there will be an eruption at all:

"There are no measurements to suggest that an eruption is imminent. Previous intrusion events in Iceland have lasted for several days or weeks, often not resulting in an eruption. However an eruption of Bárðarbunga cannot presently be excluded, hence the intense monitoring and preparation efforts. The ongoing monitoring and assessment effort is necessary in case a volcanic eruption occurs....

Today, three earthquakes exceeding 3 in magnitude have occurred on the caldera rim of Bárðarbunga (M 3.7 at 10:29, M 4.0 at 10:58 and M 3.4 at 13:02). These earthquakes were at depths around 2 - 5 km. They are interpreted as possible adjustments of the caldera due to changing magma pressure – they are not assumed to be the precursor to an imminent eruption.

    No signs of diminishing activity around Bárðarbunga
    An intrusion, 25 km long, has formed beneath Dyngjujökull, at a depth of 5-10 km

The seismic activity in Bárðarbunga, first noticed 16th August, has maintained its strength and there are no signs of its retreat. Deformation measurements, GPS, indicate that a 25 km long intrusion is forming underneath Dyngjujökull. Earthquake measurements support the conclusion that the magma is still at 5-10 km depth. There are no signs of upward migration of the activity.

Collateral interpretation of the latest data suggests that the intrusion is expanding at its northeastern end, whereas its length has only increased a little in the last 24 hours.

In the Bárðarbunga caldera, where it all started, earthquakes still occur; probably because of slight subsidence due to the outward flow of magma from the magma-chamber under the caldera."

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947

Change the 21 in 21082014 to 22 to get tomorrow's official update:
http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Bardarbunga_daily_status_report_21082014.pdf

[viddaloo]

Officials there don't think there will be an eruption at all:

Guess they wouldn't be 'officials' much longer if they thought otherwise, eh? 

Politicians are often forced to be positive, that's why we're in this terrible mess, IMO. Just look at this map and at the quake log, showing a very recent almost 5 earth quake at the volcano:

[RaenorShine]

Officials there don't think there will be an eruption at all:

Guess they wouldn't be 'officials' much longer if they thought otherwise, eh? 

Politicians are often forced to be positive, that's why we're in this terrible mess, IMO. Just look at this map and at the quake log, showing a very recent almost 5 earth quake at the volcano:

These are quotes from the volcanologists not politicians, and earthquake storms do die out without their being eruptions. They are waking a fine line between needless worry and being overly cautious.  shouting the end is nigh at every shake is counterproductive (especially in Iceland that has minor quakes all time).

Evacuations have been ordered nearby in case there is an eruption but there is no guarantee there will be one. Volcanos can shake for weeks before an eruption, which may or may not surface. When if it does it may be a minor eruption.

[viddaloo]

All known & understood long ago. I still trust Jón in Copenhagen more than anyone in this case. His word is more credible than officials who fear a muslim invasion of Iceland (the official reason we patrol the area with Norwegian jet fighters).

[A-Team]

Yes indeed, can't hyperventilate for months on end and expect anyone to still be listening.

One time I rushed over to the Big Island for the once-in-a-lifetime view of Kilauea -- turned out, any time during the subsequent 31 years worked.

At Pu'u 'Ō'ō our nanny govt had put up a warning barrier but I continued on until the soles of my shoes melted (on the thin roof of an unmarked lava tunnel). Two hikers were killed while I was out -- passed out in a gas pocket, fell back in.

Iceland ... surely they know the safety drill by now, Reykjavík was settled in 874. And they do: 22nd August 2014 status report from Icelandic Met Office and the University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences:

"There are no measurements to suggest that an eruption is imminent. Previous intrusion events in Iceland have lasted for several days or weeks, often not resulting in an eruption. However an eruption of Bárðarbunga cannot presently be excluded, hence the intense monitoring and preparation efforts. Intense earthquake activity continues at the Bárðarbunga volcano – a situation that has persisted since 16 August.

"There are no signs that the seismicity is decreasing. A 25 km long dyke has formed in the crust under the Dyngjujökull glacier at 5-10 km depth. Interpretation of the latest data suggests that the magma continues to move along the dyke, possibly branching at the northeast end of the dyke.

"One earthquake of magnitude 4.7 was measured in the Bárðarbunga caldera at 4 km depth yesterday evening at 23:50. This large event was at similar location as earthquakes of magnitude larger than three that were seen yesterday. Large events in Bárðarbunga are interpreted as adjustments of the caldera rim related to decompression in the caldera since the beginning of the unrest. The activity continues and an eruption can therefore not be ruled out.

"There are no signs of increased conductivity through geothermal activity into the rivers. From the beginning of the activity, measurements done with GPS have shown displacements on the surface of over 14 cm, 15 - 20 km from Dyngjuháls. In comparison, Iceland on the whole is spreading at the rate of about 2 cm/ year.
 
The Bárðarbunga web cams could get interesting. Right now, they are not.

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
http://vedur2.mogt.is/grimsfjall/webcam/

In terms of relevance to Arctic climate change, I would rate a major global cooling event, jökulhlaups under Greenland or albedo darkening of sea ice/Greenland at 0 on a 1 to 10 scale based on the 125,000 year NEEM core record. Although ... there has been recent explosive rifting under the Arctic Ocean at Gakkel Ridge, sudden meltlake draining is vaguely reminiscent of a jökulhlaup, and albedo from something is getting worse.

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/129/2013/tc-7-129-2013.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%B6kulhlaup
http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/story2_4_01.html

[viddaloo]

I'd still put the odds of a Barðarbunga eruption as better than those of an Islamic invasion of Iceland in late August 2014.

[viddaloo]

Iceland Awaits Barðarbunga Volcano Eruption and Climatic Impact

Here's a pretty neat picture, at least.

«Furthermore, volcanic eruptions can have a long-term effect on climate, producing either warming or cooling effects.

A volcano’s climatic impact stems from the massive amounts of gasses, aerosols and ash pushed into the stratosphere. Those that do not fall to earth and dissipate within days or weeks can contribute to global climate change. If the Barðarbunga volcano ejects a column of ash particles and sulfuric gases, a hazy cloud could cover not only Iceland, but also the entire planet within weeks, blocking sunlight and causing global cooling according to Scientific American (SA). On the other hand, the quantity of carbon dioxide released in the volcanic eruption could produce a greenhouse effect that traps radiated surface heat and warms the planet. SA points out, however, that volcanoes produce a nominal amount of carbon dioxide in comparison to human activity.»

[Pmt111500]

Thanks A-Team for the article, pretty many unknowns there, one nice observation was that they've dated one huge eruption (previously 534) to have happened a couple of years earlier. Stratosphere is at lower altitude in higher latitudes so a smallish hemispheric effect might be possible even from a smaller eruption. The sulfate cloud won't go uphill to the tropics in the stratosphere, I think, so large tropical eruptions still have the largest effects. Regarding this possible eruption at Bardarbunga, it would have to melt and vaporize 600 m of ice, or so the thickness of ice was said to be on top of the caldera, before it could spew sulfates high up

[RaenorShine]

The eruption has started, now breaking news on BBC in the UK

Volcano Cafe have been following the increased activity today :

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/23/bardarbunga-on-the-move/

Aviation Colour Code Red has been declared for the Volcano Bárdarbunga and the surrounding area.

Icelandic Met Office helicopter observation confirms ongoing eruption that appears to be small at this time. Keep up with the updates as they come.

[viddaloo]

The eruption has started, now breaking news on BBC in the UK

Volcano Cafe have been following the increased activity today :

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/23/bardarbunga-on-the-move/

Aviation Colour Code Red has been declared for the Volcano Bárdarbunga and the surrounding area.

Icelandic Met Office helicopter observation confirms ongoing eruption that appears to be small at this time. Keep up with the updates as they come.

Yup, I noticed the new colour code at vedur.is:

RED: Eruption is imminent or in progress - significant emission of ash into atmosphere likely.

[RaenorShine]

Update from the Icelandic Met Office.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947

A small lava-eruption has been detected under the Dyngjujökull glacier.
The Icelandic Coast Guard airplane TF-SIF is flying over the area with representatives from the Civil Protection and experts from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences. Data from the equipment on board is expected later today.
Data from radars and web-cameras is being received, showing no signs of changes at the surface.
The estimate is that 150-400 meters of ice is above the area.
The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.
Some minutes ago (14:04), an earthquake occurred, estimated 4.5 in magnitude.

[viddaloo]

Dyngjujökull at WikiMapia (indicated by a small cross at the North end of the gray part of the Vatnajökull glacier):

[SteveMDFP]

Dyngjujökull at WikiMapia (indicated by a small cross at the North end of the gray part of the Vatnajökull glacier):

A zoomable Iceland Atlas:
http://atlas.lmi.is/kortasja_en/
Zoom in on Vatnajökull to see the currently interesting volcano names.

[Pmt111500]

A-ha, a more trustworthy source says 150-400 meter of ice on top, and an Icelandic geologist has stated that likely it'll melt for the eruption. So flights to Iceland from at least Europe are going to get tough. predictions that west winds prevail at least for a while.  (And now I see RaenorShine reported this already )

[morganism]

Now traveling to nearby volcano, out from under the glacier.

These guys predicting it could be a major event 100km3 of lava and a major rift.

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/


oops, forgot the twitter feed, and local news w/ and English page

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Bardarbunga

http://www.ruv.is/volcano

[viddaloo]

If it is a major event and longlasting, I expect to see huge heaps of ash landing on the Arctic Sea Ice as it settles and refreezes this autumn. This way Bárðarbunga can play a major role in the emptying of the basin for summer sea ice. Who expected that at the beginning of this melt season?!

[morganism]

Right now, the second most optimistic end for this is regular volcano in less than a week.

If the rift actually opens, there have been quakes all the way down to the mantle.
That means a low pressure system for lava expansion. We are talking Deccan Traps type eruption

The quakes have now moved NNW also, further up the Mid Atlantic Ridge.
They also appear to have tied into multiple paths to nearby existing volcanic areas.
One of the areas starting to shake is the hydro dam at north edge of glacier..... There are 2 of them up there.

There will be more to worry about than ash.
Flourine and HydSulfide gases may be strong enough to get to Europe......

[viddaloo]

If the rift actually opens, there have been quakes all the way down to the mantle.
That means a low pressure system for lava expansion. We are talking Deccan Traps type eruption

You may be right there, @morganism. Jón Frímann seems to think a new 2014 volcano will erupt at the (future) north end of the currently northward expanding dyke (red X on my map):

This dyke is going to erupt in my view, it is just a matter of time now. It might not erupt, that is always a possibility. I just think it is highly unlikely to be the outcome of all of this. This dyke is going to continue making a path for it self until it hits a resistance in the crust it cannot break after that it is going to go up, since its easier path for it, rather then to go down into the crust where its path has more resistance.

[Pmt111500]

Another larger quake today  a bit away from Bardarbunga to the direction of Askja. This one was 3 km shallower than that of three days ago. Could it be the main event will be outside known calderas, forming a new vent for Kverkfjöll? As the area is known for fissure eruptions there would be several vents but this 3 km's up in three days would give it about a week until lava. I'll give it two, then forget about it, then get surprised when the ash gets here. The arrow is for the fissure quakes, indicating moving lava.
(blah, always double check the correct locations.)

[Pmt111500]

I've been following this pretty closely now for couple of days. After a couple of ~+5 quakes last night, one near Askja, one near Bardarbunga, smaller tremors have nearly ended. Is the Askja system a safety valve or will it join in to fill in the voids left by the quakes? Nobody seems to know. Some talk of the quakes being in some sort of synchronicity, I'll guess couple more days to see if the quakes lowered the threat of an eruption or has the system enough energy to produce an eruption. No guesses on how large an eruption would be, officially IMO (Iceland Meterological Office) are talking only of smaller eruptions.

[Laurent]

Iceland volcano: New quakes raise concern over large eruption
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28943708

[crandles]

I've been following this pretty closely now for couple of days. After a couple of ~+5 quakes last night, one near Askja, one near Bardarbunga, smaller tremors have nearly ended.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table

We do seem to be down to about 3 an hour over M2 since about 07:00 on 27th. However a comment somewhere suggested that more smaller quakes might be posted after data is reviewed.

Does that make drawing conclusions on a slow down rather dodgy?



Perhaps make a few copies of this table summary?
Earthquake count:
Magnitude less than 1 in all:  290
Magnitude 1 to 2 in all:  1640
Magnitude 2 to 3 in all:  339
Magnitude more than 3 in all:  26
Total: 2295

 

[Pmt111500]

Been looking @ http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/drumplot/IDYN.png , yesterday was much more active. Maybe it'll pick up. I'm not hazarding a guess about when.

[silkman]

There's an interesting analysis by Carl at Volcano Cafe. Understated, but he's opening up the possibility of some pretty frightening outcomes:

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/27/bardarbunga-reader-question/

See also:

http://www.wired.com/2014/08/icelandic-earthquake-swarm-heads-towards-askja-what-could-happen/

[viddaloo]

A baby volcano will be born! 

I don't like it when it's this quiet. (Oh well, plot's only 5 minutes old, and emptied for the new day of quakes. And possibly other events?)

[Pmt111500]

A baby volcano will be born! 

I don't like it when it's this quiet. (Oh well, plot's only 5 minutes old, and emptied for the new day of quakes. And possibly other events?)

now there's an M3 and M4 with some glacier cracking (good morning, BTW) , people guessing glacier's melting underneath, the above glacier dropping down -> crevasses 15m deep and several kilmometers long E of Bardarbunga.

[viddaloo]

Unclear what is happening in Bárðarbunga volcano

Cauldrons have formed in Vatnajökull glacier just SE and SSE of Bárðarbunga volcano.
The cauldrons are 4 to 6 km long and about 1 km wide.[...]

The cauldrons that have been spotted today in Vatnajökull just SE and SSE of Bárðarbunga volcano are in the south end are of the current dyke. What is also important, they are also in an area were magnitude 5,0 earthquake did happen few days ago, in a area that has not had any dyke activity since 16-August-2014 when this all started. It is still unclear what happened to all the water in this melt, the glacier in this area is 400 to 600 meters thick and this is not a little melt that has taken place in the glacier. There is a chance the water did go to Grímsvötns lake (caldera like in Grímsfjall volcano), but that remains unclear at the moment.

[Pmt111500]

yes, circular they are, cauldrons in ice. Reconnaissance flight later in the morning, partly to find out where the meltwater might have gone. Another (I guess) M2-3 quake recorded some 45min ago but it's off the main event, I'd say to the west-northwest, so I guess it's not directly related to the magma intrusion developing NE-wards. (update:) ~M4 quake @ Askja about 07:45 local time. ; 08:14 a biggie, possibly M5 somewhere near the beginning of magma intrusion aka dyke in the fissure zone (W or WNW of Kverkfjöll, if my eyes and reasoning are ok ;-) ), with longlasting tremors afterwards. Something definitely broke in this one, whether it was the surface crust or deeper quake, no knowledge yet.

[crandles]

 Icelandic Met Office.
Earthquake count:
Magnitude less than 1 in all:  462
Magnitude 1 to 2 in all:  1740
Magnitude 2 to 3 in all:  262
Magnitude more than 3 in all:  21
Total: 2485
 
When I have looked since posting previous 2295, it has been just above 2300. Now up to 2485 but more up to M2 and less above.

[morganism]

Cambridge team on the ground installing new sensors.
Can't find feeds for the info, but here is the twitter feed

https://twitter.com/uni_iceland

and a chart showing activity over time  red is magma, blue is water

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/vatnajokulsvoktun/dyn_trem.gif

[JayW]

Possible video of magma surfacing at Bárðarbunga.

Edit: I should say somewhere around Bárðarbunga, the video is lacking in points of reference.

[viddaloo]

Official: WarningA fissure eruption has started north of Dynjujökull.

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/
http://vedur2.mogt.is/grimsfjall/webcam/

Jón says: Eruption has started in the dyke area. The eruption appears clearly on Míla web camera. It can be viewed here.

[wili]

Indeed: http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/25998/2/

It Begins: Iceland's Bardarbunga volcano Erupts

The magma has now breached the surface and the volcanic eruption has been confirmed by scientists in the field. The low frequency tremors suggests the eruption is located outside the glacier. The blaze can be observed in Mila’s webcameras, two of which are trained on Vatnajökull glacier’s Bárðarbunga area.

According to the National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police the eruption is thought to be coming from a 3-400m long fissure with direction to NE-SW according to first reports.

[Pmt111500]

Of course it starts when I'm sleeping. occasional glances for 16 hours/day for three days.  A couple of openings in between Bardarbunga and Askja. Tremors have continued, it looks like, all the way in the dyke zone between those two, so I think there's more to come, and a fissure eruption like the 1970s one maybe on it's way.

A baby volcano will be born! 

Neven was again a prophet on this, the eruption is outside calderas . More seriously, fissure eruptions are pretty common in Iceland, and usually do not produce a baby volcano for the lava flowing out is so runny, but let's see. Bardarbunga birthed a side crater if you want to continue with the parable .

The eruption is currently not under glacier so only minimum harm to air traffic is expected, flight restriction zones may change in a flight, though.

There is (of course) a huge traffic load to icelandic sites, so webcams and Iceland met office sites are occasionally down,  is the 'livestream' recommennended by people at volcanocafe.

I'm off elsewhere so no updates from me for a while

[wili]

a red alert has been issued:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28977773

The Icelandic Met Office has raised its aviation warning level near the Bardarbunga volcano to red after an eruption began overnight.

Scientists said a fissure eruption 1km (0.6 miles) long started in a lava field north of the Vatnajokull glacier.

Civil protection officials said Icelandic Air Traffic Control had closed the airspace above the eruption up to a height of 18,000ft (5,500m).

The volcano has been hit by several recent tremors.

The fissure eruption took place between Dyngjujokull Glacier and the Askja caldera, a statement from the Department of Civil Protection said.

The area is part of the Bardabunga system.

"Scientists who have been at work close to the eruption monitor the event at a safe distance," the statement added.

"The Icelandic Met Office has raised the aviation colour code over the eruption site to red."

It added that no volcanic ash had so far been detected but a coast guard aircraft was due to take off later to survey the site.

Here's a (nighttime) webcam picture of the eruption:




And morning:

[Pmt111500]

This is off topic, as far as glaciers go, but in Papua New Guinea a volcano did an eruption that will have an effect on temperatures (likely over Indian Ocean). http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/rabaul/tarvurvur/news/47300/Tavurvur-volcano-Rabaul-Papua-New-Guinea-large-explosive-eruption-ash-to-60000-ft.html
This should be imo discussed in a separate thread

As for Bardarbunga, the semipros and pros at volcanocafe.wordpress have judged the now-subsued eruption as an initial burp. Indeed the quake-activity has continued and spread a bit (if eyes and reasoning are ok), read more f.e. from the Icelandic diarist with access to more immediate info than most @ http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/29/1325722/-B-r-arbunga-The-Opening-Scene-Has-Ended-Now-Begins-The-Plot

New post at volcanocafe explains clearly why a huge eruption is of small probability, one or two main volcanos in the area should join in this Bardarbunga activity for a large fissure event to begin. Still, it's possible there could be an eruption under northern Vatnajökull, where large ash clouds could form in the same way as in Eyjafjöll-eruption. http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/30/a-look-at-the-overall-picture/

[viddaloo]

Warning: Fissure eruption in Holuhraun (north of Vatnajökull).

Lava flowing at a 1000 m³ / sec.

[solartim27]

Still visible from the webcam, though the wind makes it shaky
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

[Laurent]

Iceland issues new Bardarbunga volcano alert
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29003031

[Pmt111500]

the night time images are pretty pretty, http://snag.gy/2ViIi.jpg

[silkman]

Live stream on Youtube:



The webcam is a long way away. The lava fountains are up to 60 meters high and the fissure is more than a kilometre long.

[silkman]

This link has just been posted on VolcanoCafe:

http://photos.gudmann.is/#!/index/G0000VHvgRsUlb5M/I0000xSjJKZQwqII

Awesome, terrifying and stunningly beautiful at the same time!