It has always been a surprise to me how little direct reference has been made to this topic in the main discussion threads and the paupacy of comments to this thread. So often commentary, on the condition of the Arctic ice and projections, end with the caveat 'but...it all depends upon the weather'. This begs the question 'what is creating the weather? (in the Arctic).
'What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic' is an expression often read but the analysis of what is happening inside the Arctic, albeit challenging and of great interest, will always be behind the curve when it comes to 'predictions'. 'What happens outside of the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic' is a better starting point to understanding what will happen inside the Arctic. In particular, the status of the Jet Stream and how this affects the weather in the Arctic.
As the Jet stream breaks down over extended periods of time there is nothing to prevent heat flooding into the Arctic region direct from the Tropics. The current 'heat dome' centered over the Pole follows an extended period when the Jet Stream was absent over the Indian sub-continent and Siberia.
IMO it is primarily the Jet Stream that determines the Arctic weather and will shortly lead to the demise of the Arctic sea ice in winter AND summer.
An excellent link to tracking the live and projected status of the Jet Stream can be seen at:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstreamNOTE The global view is interactive