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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Drought
« Reply #650 on: November 16, 2023, 12:05:05 AM »
Incredible and tragic, what have we done...

Seems like this year is the largest deviation from the trend, but there seems to be something like a 2-4 year cycle, with the period most often being 3 years. Is this mostly dominated by ENSO I wonder? It will be interesting to see what the next few years bring. Hope it is not a feedback beginning already.
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neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #651 on: December 21, 2023, 04:08:41 PM »
This year, however, a severe drought has engulfed large swaths of Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. All that remains of the Canaticu River in some areas is a dark brown trickle, laden with bacteria and almost completely dried up.

“Now we cannot use it for anything. It wasn’t like this before,” said 36-year-old Elizete Lima Nascimento, who has lived in one of the riverside communities, Serafina, for the past decade....

..Already, one of the residents’ primary food sources is threatened: fish. Some have been left stranded as the river recedes — and in the water that remains, the corpses of other fish float to the surface.

Abnormally warm temperatures are suspected in the mass die-off. Residents fear the dead fish could pollute the water as they decompose.

Nine heatwaves have hit Brazil since the beginning of the year, with the heat index in Rio de Janeiro soaring to almost 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit) in November. Worldwide, 2023 is expected to be the hottest year on record....


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/20/everything-is-dead-how-record-drought-is-wreaking-havoc-on-the-amazon
« Last Edit: December 21, 2023, 04:59:37 PM by kassy »

neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #652 on: January 04, 2024, 12:43:24 AM »
starting the year behind...another fire year?




neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #653 on: January 04, 2024, 12:45:17 AM »
canada...


neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #654 on: January 05, 2024, 03:23:32 PM »
any connection between temperature, drought, and fire?


kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #655 on: January 05, 2024, 05:05:52 PM »
That depends on the location.  ;)

But it´s not good for vegetation.
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HapHazard

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Re: Drought
« Reply #656 on: January 05, 2024, 09:53:01 PM »
Looking forward to an insane fire season this year. I'm in central BC. In my past 16 years here, the snow has always been up to my knees by now. Every single time.

I can still see our lawn right now. And it's not because it's been melting; it simply hasn't been falling.

Should change soon, going by the forecast, but IDK if there's enough time left for the snowpack to approach reasonable levels now. We'll see, I guess.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2024, 08:47:06 PM by HapHazard »
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #657 on: January 06, 2024, 06:12:43 PM »
...drought in the Amazon basin...

3.9 standard deviations below normal

El Cid

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Re: Drought
« Reply #658 on: January 06, 2024, 09:58:39 PM »
This happens when you cut down the rainforest. Not that scientists did not warn us about this

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Drought
« Reply #659 on: January 07, 2024, 12:29:49 AM »
Crap, even the linear trend line is bad enough. Wonder if an exponential curve would fit better for last 10-15 years? That would be a terrifying tipping point to have crossed.
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kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #660 on: January 07, 2024, 04:53:14 PM »
This happens when you cut down the rainforest. Not that scientists did not warn us about this

El Nino is also making it a lot worse for the region. I wonder what the same picture but in 2016 would look like.
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The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #661 on: January 18, 2024, 11:08:25 PM »
starting the year behind...another fire year?

Recent snows have tempered that.

https://www.weather.gov/mfr/snow-depth

neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #662 on: January 22, 2024, 03:26:36 PM »
mostly below normal

neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #663 on: January 22, 2024, 03:33:18 PM »
LISBON/BARCELONA, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Portugal's caretaker government has ordered cuts to the amount of water used in farmland irrigation and in urban environments including hotels in the tourism-dependent southern region of Algarve, where a severe drought has nearly emptied reservoirs.

Across the Iberian peninsula, Spain's northeastern region of Catalonia is suffering its worst drought on record and authorities in the greater Barcelona area said on Thursday they would reduce water pressure in some towns' supply systems.

Portugal's Environment Minister Duarte Cordeiro said late on Wednesday agricultural irrigation in the region will have to drop by an average of 25% from last year's levels, but the cuts could reach as much as 50% around certain dam reservoirs with less water.

Urban consumers, including golf courses and hotels, will face cuts of 15%.

"Algarve reservoirs are at their lowest levels ever. If nothing was done in relation to moderation on the consumption side, we would reach the end of 2024 without water for public supply," he said.

Water reservoirs in mainland Portugal are 73% full on average, with some in the north at capacity as a result of heavy rains, while in the Algarve they are on average only 25% full, with some as low as 8%-15%, compared to 45% a year ago, he said.

A 2022 study showed that climate change had already left the Iberian peninsula at its driest in 1,200 years.

Meanwhile, Catalan authorities this week warned that new emergency restrictions, of up to 80% for agricultural water usage, would be imposed once the region's overall reservoirs level reaches 16%. Reservoirs are now just 16.2% full.

Filling empty swimming pools will be banned, including for tourism facilities. For outdoor pools, clubs will be obliged to shut all their showers. Beach showers will also be shut.

Those breaching the restrictions will be fined up to 3,000 euros in the Barcelona area.

In the southern region of Andalusia, officials on Thursday said there would be water restrictions in big cities such as Seville, Cordoba or Malaga by the summer in the absence of substantial rain before then. Water pressure has already been reduced at night in some towns.





morganism

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Re: Drought
« Reply #664 on: January 24, 2024, 11:01:51 PM »
 Majority of America’s underground water stores are drying up, study finds


Many of America’s critical sources of underground water are in a state of rapid and accelerating decline, a new study has found.

More than half of the aquifers in the United States (53 percent) are losing water, according to research published Wednesday in Nature.

And in about 1 in 8 American aquifers — roughly 12 percent — the collapse of underground water levels has sped up during the 21st century, the researchers found.

“Groundwater levels are declining rapidly in many areas,” co-author Scott Jasechko of the University of California, Santa Barbara told The Hill.

“And what’s worse, the rate of groundwater decline is accelerating in a large portion of areas,” Jasechko said.

The impacted aquifers support much of the U.S. food system, as well as providing water used by many Americans. And the country is not alone in its losses: The study found rapid loss of water in aquifers that supply hundreds of millions of people worldwide.

But the researchers added that these grim findings came with a bright spot: Many once-declining regions have bucked the trend.

“Long term groundwater losses,” they wrote, “are neither universal nor inevitable.”


(snip)
But 24 U.S. basins experienced groundwater declines greater than about 0.5 meters per year (around 18 inches), or what the Nature team called “rapid deepening” — nearly 60 percent of which were in California.

To an outsized extent, the problems identified in the Nature study are — for Americans at least — problems of California, and of the national food systems’ reliance on the fertile Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys and the groundwater beneath.

More broadly, they are problems that connect to the declining supplies of water from the overallocated and diminishing Colorado River — a body of water that serves roughly 40 million people across the American West and is still divvied up based on the much-higher levels it attained in the cooler, wetter climate of the early-20th century. 
(more)

https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/4426143-majority-of-americas-underground-water-stores-are-drying-up-study-finds/

kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #665 on: January 24, 2024, 11:05:59 PM »
Study quantifies how aquifer depletion threatens crop yields

Three decades of data have informed a new Nebraska-led study that shows how the depletion of groundwater -- the same that many farmers rely on for irrigation -- can threaten food production amid drought and drier climes.

The study found that, due in part to the challenges of extracting groundwater, an aquifer's depletion can curb crop yields even when it appears saturated enough to continue meeting the demands of irrigation. Those agricultural losses escalate as an aquifer dwindles, the researchers reported, so that its depletion exerts a greater toll on corn and soybean yields when waning from, say, 100 feet thick to 50 than from 200 feet to 150.

That reality should encourage policymakers, resource managers and growers to reconsider the volume of crop-quenching groundwater they have at their disposal, the team said, especially in the face of fiercer, more frequent drought.

"As you draw down an aquifer to the point that it's quite thin, very small changes in the aquifer thickness will then have progressively larger and larger impacts on your crop production and resilience," said Nick Brozović, director of policy at the Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute. "And that's a thing that we don't predict well, because we tend to predict based on the past. So if we base what's going to happen on our past experience, we're always going to underpredict. We're always going to be surprised by how bad things get."

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/01/240115121214.htm
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neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #666 on: January 31, 2024, 07:36:37 PM »
Texas in trouble this year, but don't worry, refineries are shielded from water cuts

..Two consecutive summers of brutal heat and drought have left some parts of Texas with notably low water supplies going into 2024.

A wet year or a well-placed hurricane could quickly pull these regions back from the brink. But winter rains have disappointed so far. Last week’s downpours are the first in weeks for parts of the state and they won’t hit the watersheds that need them most.

Looking ahead, forecasters increasingly expect another scorching summer here this year.

That’s bad news for places like far-south Texas, where big reservoirs on the Lower Rio Grande fell from 33 percent to 23 percent full over the past 12 months. A repeat of similar conditions would leave the reservoirs far lower than they’ve ever been, triggering an emergency response and an international crisis.

“Pretty scary times,” said Jim Darling, president of the Rio Grande Regional Water Authority and former mayor of the city of McAllen. “We’ll see what happens.”

Worries stretch beyond the Rio Grande. In Corpus Christi, on the south Texas coast, authorities last month stopped releasing water aimed at maintaining minimum viable ecology in the coastal wetlands, even as oil refineries and chemical plants remain exempt from water use restrictions during drought.

Also last month, in the sprawling suburbs of Central Texas, between Austin and San Antonio, one groundwater district declared stage 4 drought for the first time in its 36-year history....

...Corpus Christi, with 421,000 people in its two-county metro area, sits where the Gulf Coast marshes meet the semi-arid South Texas plains. The region’s combined reservoirs dropped from 53.7 percent full in 2022 to 43.6 percent in 2023 to 30.5 percent this month.

The city announced in December that it would no longer release water from its reservoir system to support basic ecology in coastal bays and estuaries.

“Due to the ongoing drought in our water supply,” wrote a city spokesperson in a statement. “NO water is being released from Lake Corpus Christi to the Bays and Estuaries.”

Wherever Texas rivers join the sea, these once-vast wetlands host critical reproductive cycles of many aquatic species, and they depend on freshwater inflows for their characteristically half-salty, nutrient-rich systems. When water supply gets tight, the bays and estuaries typically are first to see their allocations revoked while cities keep dam gates closed.

These ecosystems, which once benefited from all the water from the formerly undammed rivers of Texas, have adapted to natural droughts. Dry years severely decrease the amount of species reproduction, but when wet weather returns, the system can usually recover within a year, according to Paul Montagna, endowed chair of hydroecology at Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies in Corpus Christi.

“However, if a system is permanently impaired it is also possible that recovery will not reach former levels,” Montagna said.

Studies suggest that systems around Corpus Christi may already be “permanently impaired,” Montagna said, largely due to a sustained lack of fresh water.

Similar problems span the lower Texas coast. The Rio Grande hasn’t flowed consistently into the Gulf of Mexico since the early 2000s. On the Colorado River, which runs through Austin, authorities have kept water releases to the coastal wetlands at a bare minimum in recent years. Jennifer Walker, director of the National Wildlife Foundation’s Texas Coast and Water Program, called it “critical life support.”

“Water to meet environmental needs is frequently the first to be negotiated away,” Walker said. “Our bays and estuaries are a hugely important part of Texas and they’re not something that would be easy to go back and fix.”

In Corpus Christi, a major refining and export hub for Texas shale oil and gas, city authorities have imposed water use restrictions on residents, with more to come if reservoir levels fall below 30 percent. But the region’s largest industrial water consumers operate unabated, thanks to a purchasable exemption from drought restrictions for industrial users—$0.25 per 1,000 gallons—passed by the city council in 2018.

That includes users like ExxonMobil’s massive new plastics plant, which is authorized to use up to 25 million gallons of water per day—a quarter of the regional summertime water demand....


https://www.wired.com/story/texas-water-drought-winter-weather-shortage/

The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #667 on: February 02, 2024, 04:07:35 PM »
Texas is not currently experiencing significant drought.  Only 22.8% of the state is classified as being in drought, with most of that being moderate.  Just 2% is in extreme drought, and no regions are currently experiencing exceptional drought.  Far south Texas is drought-free from Nuevo Laredo to the Gulf of Mexico.

https://www.drought.gov/states/texas

nadir

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Re: Drought
« Reply #668 on: February 02, 2024, 04:18:48 PM »
“Wired” reporting…
« Last Edit: February 02, 2024, 04:26:31 PM by nadir »

kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #669 on: February 02, 2024, 04:21:20 PM »
Villages in Spain's parched northeast struggle to keep drinking water flowing amid drought emergency


Plastic jugs in hand, Joan Torrent takes a path into the woods in search of drinking water. He fills the 8-liter (2-gallon) receptacles at a natural spring and then hauls them back to his home in Gualba, a picturesque village near Barcelona that like many towns in Spain is bearing the worst of a record drought.

For Torrent, making this walk for water several times a week is a minor inconvenience, but one that may become more common as Spain and the rest of the Mediterranean adapt to climate change.

“Gualba used to be full of springs. Now I think this is the only one left," Torrent, a 64-year-old retiree, said while making one of his trips to the fountain connected to the spring. “I don't think we are aware of what is in store for all of us... People don’t want to hear about there being a lack of water. In my view, people need to be more conscious about the lack of water.”

Officials in Spain’s northeast region of Catalonia declared a drought emergency on Thursday, with reservoirs that serve 6 million people, including the population of Barcelona, at under 16% of their capacity, a historic low.

The drought emergency, which takes effect Friday, limits the daily amount of water permitted for residential and municipal purposes to 200 liters (53 gallons) per person. Catalonia’s water agency says the average resident uses 116 liters (30 gallons) per day at home.

But Gualba and other small towns and villages spread across the Catalan countryside have been in crisis mode for months. So while Barcelona’s population has yet to feel the drought's impact beyond not being able to fill up private pools and wash cars, thousands of people living in small communities that depend on wells now run dry are experiencing difficulties getting water fit for consumption.

Gualba's name, according to local lore, means “white water” thanks to the streams flowing down from the Montseny mountain that overlooks the village. But this upscale village of some 1,500 residents has been without drinking water since December, when the local reservoir fell so low that water became undrinkable and only good for washing clothes and dishes. Most residents have to drive to another town to buy bottled water.

“We have always had abundant water,” said Jordi Esmaindia, deputy mayor of Gualba. “Nobody imagined we would be like this.”

Spain has seen three years of below-average rainfall amid record temperatures, and conditions are only expected to get worse thanks to climate change, which is predicted to heat up the Mediterranean area faster than other regions.

The reservoirs fed by the Ter and Llobregat rivers in northern Catalonia have fallen to 15.8% of their capacity, while their 10-year average is 70%. Only the Guadalete-Barbate river basin in southern Andalusia, which faces similar shortages and restrictions, is worse off at 14.6%. Spain as a whole is at 50%.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/spain-ap-people-andalusia-catalonia-b2488747.html

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vox_mundi

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Re: Drought
« Reply #670 on: February 21, 2024, 10:36:53 PM »
Winter drought grips southern Europe, northern Africa
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-winter-drought-southern-europe-northern.html



Just over 45 percent of southern Europe suffered from soil drought, with 2.8 percent reaching the highest "alert" level, over the first 10 days of February, according to the latest data from the European Drought Observatory (EDO) analysed by AFP.

Meanwhile a quarter of all Europe and northern Africa is under drought conditions, according to Copernicus, with 19.3 percent of the region's soil at a "warning" level, meaning a moisture deficit is underway.

An alert level is impacting 2.5 percent of the region, meaning vegetation is growing abnormally due to the advanced stage of the drought, according to calculations by AFP.

The situation has worsened since the end of January, but has slightly improved compared with the same period last year that saw 31.3 percent of the territory under drought.

The western Mediterranean region has been particularly hard-hit, including southern Italy, Spain, northern Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.

Warmer than usual seasonal temperatures are the culprit.

Last month was the warmest January on record globally, according to Copernicus, combined with a lack of precipitation that in some regions has lasted months, and even years.

Faced with "its worst drought in a century", according to Catalonia regional president Pere Aragones, a state of emergency was issued including new restrictions on water.

The regions reservoirs had fallen below the level of 16 percent.

In France, the southern Pyrenees-Orientales region to the south faced "very worrying" levels of groundwater, its main reserve for drinking water, according to the organisation that monitors it.

The Italian island of Sicily declared a drought emergency at the beginning of February, while in Sardinia, farmers were slapped with restrictions on water use.

Morocco, where temperatures recently approached 37 degrees Celsius (98 degrees Fahrenheit), is experiencing its sixth consecutive year of drought.

The EDO has forecasted spring 2024 to be warmer than usual for Europe and the Mediterranean, which will compound a shortfall in snow over several mountain ranges that are responsible for recharging rivers over the coming months.
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #671 on: February 22, 2024, 02:15:07 PM »
Alberta declares an early start to wildfire season

The Alberta government has declared an early start to the 2024 wildfire season in the face of low snowpacks and forecasts of dry weather to come.

Alberta Forestry and Parks Minister Todd Loewen said Tuesday the season is now underway — 10 days earlier than the usual start of March 1....

...The extra staffing and permit requirement comes after last year’s record-setting fire season, which saw 22,000 square kilometres burned. That’s about 10 times the five-year average.

A total of 54 new fires and those remaining from last year continue to burn in the province.

This season is expected to be similarly hot. Large parts of Alberta are under severe or extreme drought and an El Nino season is predicted to bring continued warm temperatures.


https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/alberta-declares-early-start-to-wildfire-season

kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #672 on: February 29, 2024, 01:00:50 PM »
Catalonia's farmers demand more help over drought


...

"We're now in a situation where we have a full-on drought," says Xavier Oliva, an artichoke farmer who owns land just outside the city. "If it doesn't rain you can't plant anything."

Oliva and his colleagues are protesting about a range of issues, including what they see as overly tight EU farming regulations. But the most immediate threat to their profession is posed by lack of water, and they are calling for more direct help from the regional government.

In late January, the water level of reservoirs supplying Barcelona and the towns surrounding it in the Ter-Llobregat basin system had dropped on average to below 16% of capacity.

The regional government of Catalonia responded by declaring a state of emergency affecting around six million people. That triggered the introduction of a range of restrictions on water use.

For livestock farmers that means only being allowed to consume half the water they would normally use, and for crop farmers like Mr Oliva, it means reducing water use by 80%.

"We'll plant 80% less crop than normal, or even less than that," says Mr Oliva, who is part of the El Prat farming cooperative, as he looks ahead to the coming months.

"It's pushing us closer and closer to a situation where we'll have to shut down our farms."

"We're now in a situation where we have a full-on drought," says Xavier Oliva, an artichoke farmer who owns land just outside the city. "If it doesn't rain you can't plant anything."

Oliva and his colleagues are protesting about a range of issues, including what they see as overly tight EU farming regulations. But the most immediate threat to their profession is posed by lack of water, and they are calling for more direct help from the regional government.

In late January, the water level of reservoirs supplying Barcelona and the towns surrounding it in the Ter-Llobregat basin system had dropped on average to below 16% of capacity.

The regional government of Catalonia responded by declaring a state of emergency affecting around six million people. That triggered the introduction of a range of restrictions on water use.

For livestock farmers that means only being allowed to consume half the water they would normally use, and for crop farmers like Mr Oliva, it means reducing water use by 80%.

"We'll plant 80% less crop than normal, or even less than that," says Mr Oliva, who is part of the El Prat farming cooperative, as he looks ahead to the coming months.

"It's pushing us closer and closer to a situation where we'll have to shut down our farms."

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68401814
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kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #673 on: February 29, 2024, 01:13:43 PM »
Oranges wither, cows go hungry in drought-hit Sicily

Marilina Barreca has two grim options: feed her cows tainted fodder or set them to graze on barren hillsides as Sicily battles a crop-devastating drought which is sucking reservoirs dry.

Regional authorities in the southern Italian island declared a state of emergency earlier this month, after the winter rains hoped for following last year's punishingly hot summer failed.

"The situation is tragic," Barreca told AFP as she looked out over the Madonie Mountains, where her cows range free in pastures once rich with tufted grasses, but where there is little now for grazing.

The circular feeder at the top of one rise holds hay—but it is of such poor quality the cows will not eat it.

Sicily is not alone. Drought has struck across the Western Mediterranean, with severe impacts on northern Africa, parts of Spain and other areas of Italy, including Sardinia.

Experts say climate change driven by human activity is boosting the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and droughts—but also heavy rain.

Storms swept across the island during the hay-making period in April and May, damaging the fodder and turning it into a breeding ground for poisonous toxins.

Since then, it has barely rained.

'Almost total aridity'
Barreca, 47, who runs the farm with her sister, is spending almost 3,000 euros ($3,255) extra a month on fodder just to keep her 150 cows alive.

The poor quality hay means the animals struggle to get the necessary nutrients and energy, producing around 17 or 18 liters a day of milk, compared to their usual 27 to 30 liters.

...

Sicily—which set a European heat record in 2021, at 48.8 degrees Celsius (119.8 degrees Fahrenheit)—has experienced eight months of "almost total aridity", according to the ANBI Observatory on Water Resources.

The region's agrometeorology service said the second half of 2023 was the driest in over 100 years, and a couple of days of recent rainfall had little to no impact.

With no chance to replenish its reservoirs, Sicily has been forced to ration water in dozens of towns, and farmers say wheat fields, citrus orchards, olive groves and vineyards have all been affected.

...

"What is really of concern is that our forecast for the coming three months for the Mediterranean shows much higher temperatures than usual," he told AFP.

"And we know these temperatures exacerbate and amplify the effects of the drought," he said.

Desertification
Some 70 percent of Sicilian territory is at risk of desertification, not only due to long periods without rain, but also to uncontrolled urbanization and the waste of water, ANBI says.

The island has destroyed 95 percent of its wetlands in the past 150 years through drainage for conversion to urban or farm land, despite the key role the areas play in preventing drought.

...

https://phys.org/news/2024-02-oranges-wither-cows-hungry-drought.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: Drought
« Reply #674 on: February 29, 2024, 05:38:25 PM »
Catalonia's farmers demand more help over drought
Dig many many "illegal" wells,
Take no notice of the water table going down at an alarming rate,
Take no notice at all of all advice on moderating water use and on AGW threats to precipitation,

and when the drought comes blame the Government and demand that Government fixes the unfixable.

And then wait for howls of rage from UK consumers when the price of Spanish fruit & veg goes up.

Methinks as the years go by stories such as this will become more frequent and from many more places, with variations on the theme such as floods, droughts followed by floods, and pollution to name but a few.
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dnem

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Re: Drought
« Reply #675 on: March 01, 2024, 04:54:24 PM »
Might be a better place for this, but it follows well after Gero's last post:
https://e360.yale.edu/features/solar-water-pumps-groundwater-crops

How a Solar Revolution in Farming Is Depleting World’s Groundwater

Farmers in hot, arid regions are turning to low-cost solar pumps to irrigate their fields, eliminating the need for expensive fossil fuels and boosting crop production. But by allowing them to pump throughout the day, the new technology is drying up aquifers around the globe.

kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #676 on: March 01, 2024, 06:44:34 PM »
And we were already not doing to well:

Researchers "analyzed groundwater-level measurements taken over the last two decades from 170,000 wells in about 1,700 aquifer systems,” wrote Mohammad Shamsudduha, co-author of the paper and an Associate Professor in the UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, in a blog post on the research.

“This is the first study that has mapped trends in groundwater levels using ground-based data at the global scale in such an unprecedented detail that no computer models or satellite missions have achieved this so far.”

What they found was an unprecedented decline in global groundwater levels: reductions of more than 10 centimeters (3.9 inches) per year in 36 percent – more than one in three – of sampled aquifer systems. In one-third of those, water was disappearing even faster – by more than 50 centimeters (19.7 inches) annually in 12 percent of the total number of aquifers.

“We weren’t surprised that groundwater levels have fallen sharply worldwide,” Seybold told SciTechDaily, “but we were shocked at how the pace has picked up in the past two decades.”

...

https://www.iflscience.com/the-worlds-groundwater-is-disappearing-like-never-before-but-there-is-good-news-73127
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gerontocrat

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Re: Drought
« Reply #677 on: March 01, 2024, 08:31:05 PM »
Kassy, the paper(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06879-8)  highlights groundwater declines in cultivated drylands . Extract below

An awful lot of food is grown in arid drylands, which is where the declines are most rapid.

Not good.

Quote
Groundwater declines in cultivated drylands
Many of the aquifer systems with declining twenty-first century groundwater levels (Fig. 2) underlie drylands, defined38 as areas in which average precipitation divided by potential evapotranspiration is less than 0.65.

Rapidly deepening groundwater levels (faster than 0.5 m year−1) are found in 11%, 24% and 8% of aquifers in climate zones classified38 as hyper-arid, arid and semi-arid, respectively. Notably, aquifer systems with rapidly deepening groundwater levels are virtually absent (<1%) in humid and dry subhumid climate zones. Our 1,693 aquifer-scale groundwater-level trends exhibit a moderately strong rank correlation with precipitation divided by potential evapotranspiration39 (Spearman ρ = −0.40, P-value < 0.001; Supplementary Note 11 and Methods), implying that groundwater deepening is more common in drier climates (Fig. 4). As well as rapid groundwater-level declines, we also find that accelerating groundwater-level declines are more common in drier climates, especially underlying cultivated lands (Supplementary Note 9), probably reflecting greater reliance on groundwater for irrigation.

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Rodius

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Re: Drought
« Reply #678 on: March 02, 2024, 06:11:26 AM »
Spain is going to become a desert.

THis article is from 2016.... and they were saying this was going to happen..... 8 years later and not enough has changed.

Maybe now the consequences are hitting something will happen in Spain but Spain wont change the results unless the world gets on board.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/27/climate-change-rate-to-turn-southern-spain-to-desert-by-2100-report-warns

morganism

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Re: Drought
« Reply #679 on: March 03, 2024, 09:10:26 PM »
Artificial glaciers stave off drought in Kyrgyzstan


SYN-TASH, Kyrgyzstan, March 3 (AFP) Mar 03, 2024
In the Tian-Shan mountains of Kyrgyzstan, villagers have made an artificial glacier to provide water for their drought-hit farms.

Standing on the ice hillock, farmer Erkinbek Kaldanov said he was optimistic about harnessing nature to counteract climate change.

"We won't have any more problems with water," said the farmer, who was worried for his sheep last year after some unusual temperature spikes.

"When the glacier melts, there will be enough water for the livestock and to water the land in Syn-Tash," the surrounding district, he said.

The glacier currently measures five metres (16 feet) high and about 20 metres long. At the height of winter it was 12 metres tall.

Local residents made it over a period of two weeks in autumn by re-directing water from the peaks of Tian-Shan, which tower more than 4,000 metres high in northern Kyrgyzstan.

Kaldanov and others are being forced to adapt since natural glaciers in Central Asia -- the main water source for the region -- are slowly disappearing due to global heating.

A 2023 study in the journal Science predicted that the acceleration in the melting of the glaciers would peak only between 2035 and 2055.

The lack of snow, also due to higher temperatures, does not allow them to regenerate.

- 'Less and less water' -

The extent of the problem can be seen in satellite images of Central Asia and in the regular warnings issued by the United Nations.

The problem has a knock-on effect on the lowlands of Central Asia, in more arid countries like Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

This in turn feeds into existing tensions between the different countries, which still share water resources under a complex and obsolete scheme inherited from the Soviet era.

"There is less and less water every year. The water tables are emptying out, the springs are drying up and we have problems with grazing," said Aidos Yzmanaliyev, a spokesman for the Syn-Tash farmers.

Finding solutions is urgent, particularly as farming represents around 10 percent of the fragile Kyrgyz economy and two thirds of its inhabitants live in rural areas.

In the north of Kyrgyzstan, a country accustomed to revolutions and uprisings, the lack of water has already stoked social tensions in previous periods of drought.

"Our main aim is to provide water for livestock since the majority of the 8,400 inhabitants of the Syn-Tash district are farmers," said district chief Maksat Dzholdoshev.

"We expect to create two or three additional artificial glaciers for farmland," he said.

 Simple concept -

The idea and its implementation are relatively simple. Each glacier costs around 550,000 som (around $6,200) to create.

"The water comes from a mountain source three kilometres away through underground piping. It gushes out and freezes, forming a glacier," said Yzmanaliyev.

"Apart from providing water when it melts, the glacier also helps lower the ambient temperature and create humidity.

"(That) helps the surrounding vegetation, which is grazed by cattle from spring to autumn," Yzmanaliyev said.

Artificial glaciers were first created in the Indian Himalayas in 2014 and have gone global -- cropping up in Chile and Switzerland.

In Kyrgyzstan, their introduction was spearheaded by Abdilmalik Egemberdiyev, head of the Kyrgyz association of pasture users.

Egemberdiyev pointed to an additional benefit.

The glaciers allow farmers to keep livestock on spring pastures for longer before sending them to summer pastures, thus slowing soil erosion.

"We now have 24 artificial glaciers around the country and more still to be created," he said.

https://www.spacedaily.com/afp/240303065747.fjd5fze8.html

neal

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Re: Drought
« Reply #680 on: March 08, 2024, 04:38:21 PM »
Mexico City getting toward Day Zero with no water for many residents

The subsidence mentioned, 20" a year, means that aquifers in the area are permanently damaged and cannot be replenished. 

The lake city of the Aztecs is no more



Mexico City water crisis nearing 'day zero'
Published: Feb. 25, 2024 at 6:47 PM

Mark Moran

Feb. 25 (UPI) -- Mexico City, one of the world's largest and most densely populated cities, could be on the verge of running out of water, and prolonged drought and above-average temperatures are hastening the problem, Mexican authorities have said.

In recent days, some Mexico City residents have protested in the streets to raise awareness of the shortages where, according to local authorities, water levels are at their lowest levels in recorded history.

Protesters have taken their frustrations to the National Water Commission in Acambay, which sits in the State of Mexico, and in the Azcapotzalco municipality in Mexico City, where angry residents blocked vital roads to draw attention to the lack of water.

Water is a centuries-old issue in Mexico City. When the Spaniards settled it in the 16th century, they saw the abundance of water as an impediment to growth and so razed many of the old buildings, drained the lake bed that lies beneath Mexico City, filled in canals and cut down forests.

They saw "water as an enemy to overcome for the city to thrive," said Jose Alfredo Ramirez, an architect and co-director of Groundlab, a design and policy research organization.

Fast forward to 2024 and recent water shortages caused by higher-than-normal temperatures and prolonged drought have frightened and angered residents, some of whom say they are without water at their tap for months at a time.

Alejandro Gomez, who lives in Tlalpan, a tiny and picturesque district of Mexico City with cobblestone streets, a tiny town square dotted with trees, shops and small restaurants, said he gets a trickle of water for a few hours at a time, barely enough to fill a couple of buckets. Then, the tap will be completely dry for many days. His family exists on the water he can buy and store.

They capture their dirty bathwater to flush the toilet. "We need water. It's essential for everything," Gomez said. The weather and drought are making life even harder, he said. "Right now, we are getting this hot weather. It's even worse, things are more complicated."

Most recently, authorities have introduced significant restrictions on the water pumped from aquifers in an attempt to conserve.

"Several neighborhoods have suffered from a lack of water for weeks, and there are still four months left for the rains to start," said Christian Domínguez Sarmiento, an atmospheric scientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. "That is assuming the rainy season is .... rainy, which, given recent weather shifts as a result of climate change, is not a sure bet."

Many of the city's politicians have downplayed the serious nature of the water shortage, averting talk of any sense of impending crisis.

"Water shortages are not a new issue," Fausto Lugo García, Mexico City's former secretary of civil protection, said. "The capital has recurrent problems in supply and there have been times when the government [both federal and local] has to limit it, since the demand is met through the Cutzamala System, but also through wells. And even then it is insufficient."

But some water experts warn the situation has now reached such critical levels that Mexico City could hit "day zero" in a matter of months -- where the taps run completely dry for large parts of the city of 22 million, which sits, at 7,300 feet above sea level, on top of porous, clay soil, into which the city is now slowly sinking.

It is highly prone to earthquakes and the effects of climate change. Among the most densely populated places on the planet, Mexico City has been the victim of chaotic urban development and sprawl and leaky and inconsistent infrastructure, which has left its residents hanging in the balance in the face of the water shortage as demand increases.

Lugo García has acknowledged the severity of the water situation, and called on Mexico City residents to ration it and "prioritize essential actions for survival." He said people should restrict water usage to human consumption and not use it to wash cars, sidewalks or other unessential things.

But the conservation measure may be far too little too late. About 60% of Mexico City's water comes from its aquifer, which is being drained far faster than it can be replenished, according to recent research that shows the city is sinking at a rate of 20 inches per year.

Its geography and urban development have not helped matters. In the rainy season, the city is prone to flash flooding thanks to the sprawling concrete and other infrastructure, and rather than soaking into the ground and replenishing the aquifer, the rainfall does not get absorbed.

And because Mexico City and other large urban areas such as Monterrey and Guadalajara lack a rainwater harvesting system or advanced recycling methods, they are largely reliant on how much water Mother Nature gives them, and on how much residents are willing to conserve, which, no matter how many restrictions are imposed, may be enough to stay ahead of demand and the impending end of readily available water.



kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #681 on: March 08, 2024, 06:07:01 PM »
Four months to go at least ...one to watch.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Drought
« Reply #682 on: March 12, 2024, 09:21:13 PM »
A science paper on the Colorado Upper Basin droughts.
The future may be worse than now & even since year AD 1.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL107978
Quote
Past and Projected Future Droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Abstract
Drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Using a time series of UCRB streamflow derived from a tree-ring based reconstruction of UCRB streamflow for the years 1 CE through 1905 CE, together with naturalized UCRB streamflow values for 1906 CE through 2021 CE, we identify 51 drought events, including the 2000–2021 drought. Although the recent 2000–2021 drought has been relatively severe, it is not the most severe of the UCRB drought events we identified. Results also indicate that natural variability combined with projected climate warming can result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE.

Key Points
- We identify 51 drought events for the years 1 CE through 2021 CE for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB)

- Twelve of the 51 UCRB droughts we identify were more severe than the 2000–2021 drought

- Natural variability and/or a 1°C temperature increase can trigger UCRB droughts that are more severe than the 2000–2021 drought

Plain Language Summary
A long and severe drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000 CE, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Comparing this drought to past UCRB droughts (during 1 CE through 2021 CE), we find that the 2000–2021 drought is not the most severe UCRB drought. The results also suggest that natural variability combined with projected climate warming could result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE.

1 Introduction
The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is one of the most important sources of water in the western United States and provides water for 40 million people as well as water for hydropower generation and for agriculture (Evenson et al., 2018). The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB)—that portion of the Colorado River basin upstream of the streamgage at Lees Ferry (Figure 1)—accounts for about 90 percent (%) of the streamflow of the entire CRB (Jacobs, 2011). Given the critical importance of the UCRB, our study focuses on this portion of the basin.

see attached map

3 Results
Using the rules described above, we identified 51 UCRB drought events during the period 1 CE through 2021 CE (Figure 2a). The 51 drought events ranged in length from 10 to 70 years with a median length of 17 years (and mean length of 21 years) (Figure 2b; also see, Table S1 in Supporting Information S1). The mean water-year streamflow departures for the 51 droughts ranged from −4.4 bcm to −0.1 bcm, with a median water-year departure of −2.3 bcm, and a mean water-year departure of −2.4 bcm.

see attached image

4 Conclusions and Implications
Using a time series of UCRB water-year streamflow departures for the period 1 CE through 2021 CE (based on a tree-ring reconstruction of water-year streamflow for 1 CE through 1905 CE, and naturalized water-year streamflow for 1906 CE through 2021 CE), we identified 51 drought events (following the rule-based drought definition used in this study) that ranged in length from 10 to 70 years and ranged in mean water-year streamflow departures from −4.4 bcm to −0.1 bcm. The recent drought (2000–‍2021), has been relatively severe, but it is not the most severe of the 51 drought events we identified for the period 1 CE through 2021 CE.

Throughout centuries, severe droughts occurred naturally in the absence of global warming. The effects of warming combined with a shift to dry periods such as the 100–169 drought event likely will result in unprecedented UCRB drought conditions. It may be that the UCRB is experiencing the early part of a long and severe drought that might initially have occurred solely due to natural climatic variability but is now made more severe because of anthropogenically induced global warming (Williams et al., 2020). Such future drought events will have substantial negative effects on UCRB water supplies and will present continuing challenges for water managers.
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kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #683 on: April 01, 2024, 08:15:50 PM »
Natural disaster declared in Georgia after exceptional drought


More than 30 counties in Georgia have been designated as “primary natural disaster areas” by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in the wake of severe droughts across the state.

The areas, announced on Thursday by the USDA, include 10 in the metropolitan area of Atlanta.

Crippling droughts have gripped the Peach State in recent weeks, during the growing season. The state is the highest producer of peanuts, pecans, blueberries and more.

According to the US Drought Monitor, the designated counties suffered droughts ranging from “exceptional” to “extreme”. Farmers affected by the droughts can apply for emergency loans through the Farm Service Agency (FSA).

...

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/atlanta-drought-georgia-crop-failure-b2521603.html
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The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #684 on: April 02, 2024, 04:43:30 AM »
April fools!

Rodius

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« Last Edit: April 02, 2024, 04:00:20 PM by The Walrus »

kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #687 on: April 02, 2024, 04:32:04 PM »
In a cycle of extreme weather, drought in southern Africa leaves some 20 million facing hunger

A new drought has left millions facing hunger in southern Africa as they experience the effects of extreme weather that scientists say is becoming more frequent and more damaging


...

Delicately and with intense concentration, Zanyiwe Ncube poured her small share of precious golden cooking oil into a plastic bottle at a food aid distribution site deep in rural Zimbabwe.

“I don't want to lose a single drop,” she said.

Her relief at the handout — paid for by the United States government as her southern African country deals with a severe drought — was tempered when aid workers gently broke the news that this would be their last visit.

Ncube and her 7-month-old son she carried on her back were among 2,000 people who received rations of cooking oil, sorghum, peas and other supplies in the Mangwe district in southwestern Zimbabwe. The food distribution is part of a program funded by American aid agency USAID and rolled out by the United Nations' World Food Programme.

They're aiming to help some of the 2.7 million people in rural Zimbabwe threatened with hunger because of the drought that has enveloped large parts of southern Africa since late 2023. It has scorched the crops that tens of millions of people grow themselves and rely on to survive, helped by what should be the rainy season.

...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/zimbabwe-ap-south-africa-world-food-programme-malawi-b2521184.html
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Drought
« Reply #688 on: April 02, 2024, 04:51:12 PM »


According to the U.S. drought monitor, Georgia is completely drought-free.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?GA

If you read farther down in the second article it is referring to aid given to farmers whose harvest was ruined from drought late last year. The Indepenent article misrepresents the situation when it says "recent weeks".
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kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #689 on: April 02, 2024, 04:59:03 PM »
It seems the Independent misunderstood the source article since they wrote recent weeks.

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Re: Drought
« Reply #690 on: April 02, 2024, 07:11:14 PM »
It seems the Independent misunderstood the source article since they wrote recent weeks.
I guess reading the article is not sufficient.  One must read the sources for the article to get the full picture.  Or maybe just a little due diligence.

https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2024/01/recent-rains-have-brought-big-improvements-in-drought/

https://www.farmprogress.com/farm-operations/march-rain-relieves-georgia-drought

Rodius

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Re: Drought
« Reply #691 on: April 03, 2024, 12:38:45 AM »
For the most part, the articles provided about the drought in Georgia, USA is about how there was a drought during the growing season and it is now a disaster area where aide is required for the farmers because it seems they lost their crops.

There was a drought.
It killed crops.
Farmers given support because of the drought.

The conditions seem wetter but that doesn't fix the problems to reestablishing plants that... it appears... have died. It takes time to replace trees so incomes will be less for a while.

All because of a drought in the region earlier on.

Not sure how that is hard to understand... and if one sentence of so is misrepresented, it doesn't null and void the whole article and deserve the term "April Fools" applied to it.

The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #692 on: April 03, 2024, 03:31:39 AM »
There really was not a drought.  There were three months during a critical portion of the harvest season that received a little less than half the average rainfall.  Rains were plentiful before and afterwards.  Comparing this temporary dryness with other global droughts is self-centered and highly misinformed.  There have been several places that suffered real long-term droughts.  There was no drought in Georgia!

https://northgeorgiawater.org/utilities-board-committees/water-stats/monthly-rainfall-in-metro-atlanta/

Rodius

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Re: Drought
« Reply #693 on: April 03, 2024, 05:26:13 AM »
There really was not a drought.  There were three months during a critical portion of the harvest season that received a little less than half the average rainfall.  Rains were plentiful before and afterwards.  Comparing this temporary dryness with other global droughts is self-centered and highly misinformed.  There have been several places that suffered real long-term droughts.  There was no drought in Georgia!

https://northgeorgiawater.org/utilities-board-committees/water-stats/monthly-rainfall-in-metro-atlanta/

Hmmm... so you dislike the definition of a drought so it isn't one?

I am sure the other longer and harsher droughts will be okay with calling a short drought a drought.

The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #694 on: April 03, 2024, 03:39:34 PM »
There really was not a drought.  There were three months during a critical portion of the harvest season that received a little less than half the average rainfall.  Rains were plentiful before and afterwards.  Comparing this temporary dryness with other global droughts is self-centered and highly misinformed.  There have been several places that suffered real long-term droughts.  There was no drought in Georgia!

https://northgeorgiawater.org/utilities-board-committees/water-stats/monthly-rainfall-in-metro-atlanta/

Hmmm... so you dislike the definition of a drought so it isn't one?

I am sure the other longer and harsher droughts will be okay with calling a short drought a drought.

No, I have no issue with the definition of drought.  However, a short, isolated dry spell cannot compared to a real drought.  That is all this was.  Of course, the disaster relief team will give to aid who screams loudly enough.  It was all about money.

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Re: Drought
« Reply #695 on: April 03, 2024, 04:08:26 PM »


No, I have no issue with the definition of drought.  However, a short, isolated dry spell cannot compared to a real drought.  That is all this was.  Of course, the disaster relief team will give to aid who screams loudly enough.  It was all about money.

That's entirely your opinion. If the US drought monitor calls it a severe drought for a given area, I'd say that's pretty well universally accepted as a bona fide drought. At least as far as governmental agencies in the western hemisphere are concerned.
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The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #696 on: April 03, 2024, 04:34:02 PM »


No, I have no issue with the definition of drought.  However, a short, isolated dry spell cannot compared to a real drought.  That is all this was.  Of course, the disaster relief team will give to aid who screams loudly enough.  It was all about money.

That's entirely your opinion. If the US drought monitor calls it a severe drought for a given area, I'd say that's pretty well universally accepted as a bona fide drought. At least as far as governmental agencies in the western hemisphere are concerned.

Alright, but the drought monitor has 5 classifications of drought, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D5).  On average D3 (severe drought) - D5 make up 30-40% of conus.  Most wait until at least D4 (extreme) to call it a bona fide drought.  But not everyone.  Drought exists somewhere, everyday, but their basis.  Calling everything a drought, diminishes to term.

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Re: Drought
« Reply #697 on: April 03, 2024, 06:16:17 PM »
I agree that one has to consider the spatial and temporal components to get a full picture. To do this here, one has to zoom out to the region south and west of Georgia to see that it was really at the periphery of a larger Mississippi River drought that overall was a major drought in the context of recent history, and which the drought monitor now labels as having both short and long-term effects (6-month threshold).

Louisiana and Mississippi in particular were strongly affected, but there were areas of D3 and D4 in Georgia as well from late October to early December (btw, the scale only goes up to D4, exceptional drought).
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The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #698 on: April 04, 2024, 12:36:46 AM »
Yes, my bad on the designations.  Everything (except D0), should be reduced by 1 in my previous post.  I was not aware that any D3 areas extending Georgia.  I guess it made it to the far northwest corner.  Louisiana was particularly rain-starved last year.  Surprisingly, the crop harvest was not seriously affected.

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Louisiana/Publications/Crop_Releases/Annual_Summary/2023/laannsum23.pdf

Rodius

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Re: Drought
« Reply #699 on: April 04, 2024, 12:41:54 AM »


No, I have no issue with the definition of drought.  However, a short, isolated dry spell cannot compared to a real drought.  That is all this was.  Of course, the disaster relief team will give to aid who screams loudly enough.  It was all about money.

That's entirely your opinion. If the US drought monitor calls it a severe drought for a given area, I'd say that's pretty well universally accepted as a bona fide drought. At least as far as governmental agencies in the western hemisphere are concerned.

Alright, but the drought monitor has 5 classifications of drought, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D5).  On average D3 (severe drought) - D5 make up 30-40% of conus.  Most wait until at least D4 (extreme) to call it a bona fide drought.  But not everyone.  Drought exists somewhere, everyday, but their basis.  Calling everything a drought, diminishes to term.

All you are saying is you disagree with the terms the experts came up with and how to respond to the stresses they determined as bad enough to get govt assistance to recover.

And now you mention how other regions have different results... maybe it has something to do with the types of crops? I haven't looked so you have a chance to prove my guess wrong.... but fruit trees don't deal while with drought or heat stress while grains do better. So... the region you said needs no support are probably grain crops.

Compare apples with apples (unless I am wrong and Louisiana has mostly fruit trees like the region in Georigia has)