The 2016 melting season

[seaicesailor]

That's a testable hypothesis:

What do you think?  Does a warm May correlate well with record setting melts?

Not very good test - the ice and more important snow on top of it shows only significant reactions to _above_ freezing temperatures. So average temperatures so far below freezing are bad statistics. If you tried area in CAB exposed to melt, things would be very different.

There is also the problem that these monthly temperature ranks are taken for Latitude 80N and above. In weather maps it is not unusual to see that a warm air mass from the Pacific or North America may come accompanied of cold air squeezed from Greenland toward the Pole, with the result that this mean 80N temperature becomes anomalously  while it is anomalously warm in Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS.

[oren]

I'm now reading NASA report on current state of ASI, and they got this area graph (2nd pic):



And in it, i see that significant peak on the area graph few days prior May 8th. Is it real, or is it the same thing which plagues Cryosphere Today ice area graph lately, yet in smaller scale? If it's real, then what is the cause of this unusual increase (~400k in like 2-3 days, it seems?) of ice area? Could it be related to large drift of big parts of sea ice, perhaps some areas of open water formed due to the drift froze up just a bit for a short while?

Not real. Definitely related to the satellite problems.

[crandles]

Arctic +5.08 

Maybe it will back off a little before then.

Edit: Image was for 19May forecast on 12th May and showed +5.08C for Arctic but image is dynamic showing a 168 hr (a week) ahead per latest forecast so has changed since posted. 13th forecast for 19th May is +4.59C so backed off nearly .5C one day later.

[F.Tnioli]

I'm now reading NASA report on current state of ASI, and they got this area graph (2nd pic):



And in it, i see that significant peak on the area graph few days prior May 8th. Is it real, or is it the same thing which plagues Cryosphere Today ice area graph lately, yet in smaller scale? ...

Not real. Definitely related to the satellite problems.

Suspected as much. But then dates of the peak on that graph are good match for recent CT's total "mess" of 6 days in a row displaying insanely high and very same area numbers. However, CT's graph was affected by the "satellite problem" way earlier as well, intermittingly.

Makes me suspect that there are two separate problems, one caused erratic CT earlier, the other caused complete CT area graph failure and the peak on the NASA graph.

Could be related, too. For example, initial problems with the sensor caused increased workload on some other instrument elsewhere, and after a short while that extra load caused that other instrument to also fail.

Sigh...

[Yuha]

There is also the problem that these monthly temperature ranks are taken for Latitude 80N and above. In weather maps it is not unusual to see that a warm air mass from the Pacific or North America may come accompanied of cold air squeezed from Greenland toward the Pole, with the result that this mean 80N temperature becomes anomalously cold while it is anomalously warm in Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS.

Actually, Andrew Slater's 925hPa temperature charts are based on a larger area shown in this map:

[RoxTheGeologist]

I had a couple of question about the ice extent in the Fram/Greenland sea:

It seems to me that the extent of that ice in the sea would give a reasonable indication of the rate of export of ice through the Fram straight. That extent declines though the melting season, but would an extent increase or drop compared to a baseline basically indicate a prior increase or decrease in ice export?

Looking at the extent date there has been a lack of sea ice in the Bearing Sea, and the slightly above average extent in the Greenland sea and Off Labrador for the last few months. This would seem to me that there is more moving the Ice through the Fram straight than just weather patterns. If more warm water is being pushed into the Arctic, wouldn't the AMOC drive ice towards the Fram straight as the cold water sinks and moves south?

Is there simply more energy in the oceans and atmosphere driving the Atlantic and the Arctic oceans to mix at a higher rate?

[AvantHiatus]

Arctic +5.08 

Maybe it will back off a little before then.

Yeah there is no going back if this verifies, such as the possibility of colder, cloudy, and snowy June of 2014. All precipitation would fall as rain over the entire ice pack.

[F.Tnioli]

I had a couple of question about the ice extent in the Fram/Greenland sea:

It seems to me that the extent of that ice in the sea would give a reasonable indication of the rate of export of ice through the Fram straight. That extent declines though the melting season, but would an extent increase or drop compared to a baseline basically indicate a prior increase or decrease in ice export?

Looking at the extent date there has been a lack of sea ice in the Bearing Sea, and the slightly above average extent in the Greenland sea and Off Labrador for the last few months. This would seem to me that there is more moving the Ice through the Fram straight than just weather patterns. If more warm water is being pushed into the Arctic, wouldn't the AMOC drive ice towards the Fram straight as the cold water sinks and moves south?

Is there simply more energy in the oceans and atmosphere driving the Atlantic and the Arctic oceans to mix at a higher rate?

1. It wouldn't "indicate" that, because there are mighty other things which decrease and increase extent other than export. At best it could "hint" at that, given everything else being the same - but then of course, everything else is the same not too often.

2. Plausible, but i have no idea how significant this mechanic could be.

3. Definitely so. At the absolute zero Kelvin, no mixing occurs (hehe). On the other hand, close to 370 degrees Kelvin, lots of mixing occurs (as evident from boiling any container of water). Can't see why this trend could be polynomial-like. So in general, yep, it's one significant factor. And then we see Jet Stream illustrating your point very well last several years, going wavy, breaking up, creating extremes all around upper NH like never before.

[RoxTheGeologist]

I had a couple of question about the ice extent in the Fram/Greenland sea:

It seems to me that the extent of that ice in the sea would give a reasonable indication of the rate of export of ice through the Fram straight. That extent declines though the melting season, but would an extent increase or drop compared to a baseline basically indicate a prior increase or decrease in ice export?

Looking at the extent date there has been a lack of sea ice in the Bearing Sea, and the slightly above average extent in the Greenland sea and Off Labrador for the last few months. This would seem to me that there is more moving the Ice through the Fram straight than just weather patterns. If more warm water is being pushed into the Arctic, wouldn't the AMOC drive ice towards the Fram straight as the cold water sinks and moves south?

Is there simply more energy in the oceans and atmosphere driving the Atlantic and the Arctic oceans to mix at a higher rate?

1. It wouldn't "indicate" that, because there are mighty other things which decrease and increase extent other than export. At best it could "hint" at that, given everything else being the same - but then of course, everything else is the same not too often.

2. Plausible, but i have no idea how significant this mechanic could be.

3. Definitely so. At the absolute zero Kelvin, no mixing occurs (hehe). On the other hand, close to 370 degrees Kelvin, lots of mixing occurs (as evident from boiling any container of water). Can't see why this trend could be polynomial-like. So in general, yep, it's one significant factor. And then we see Jet Stream illustrating your point very well last several years, going wavy, breaking up, creating extremes all around upper NH like never before.

So basically; 1) too much noise. 2), 3) possible hypothesis but difficult to model.

I like your use of end points! 

[crandles]

I had a couple of question about the ice extent in the Fram/Greenland sea:

It seems to me that the extent of that ice in the sea would give a reasonable indication of the rate of export of ice through the Fram straight. That extent declines though the melting season, but would an extent increase or drop compared to a baseline basically indicate a prior increase or decrease in ice export?

Possibly though there would be other effects for example weather, water temperatures, ice thickness and age/freshness might affect how long it lasts before melting out.

Looking at the extent date there has been a lack of sea ice in the Bearing Sea, and the slightly above average extent in the Greenland sea and Off Labrador for the last few months.

I would say all of these had been generally low.

This would seem to me that there is more moving the Ice through the Fram straight than just weather patterns. If more warm water is being pushed into the Arctic, wouldn't the AMOC drive ice towards the Fram straight as the cold water sinks and moves south?

Confused by this. AMOC flows north some west of Svalbard but most passes east of Svalbard. This water may be a little subsurface. If anything this restricts flow through Fram Strait. It then sinks and bottom water flows south. Bottom waters are far too deep to influence ice movement. Perhaps I am missing something?

Is there simply more energy in the oceans and atmosphere driving the Atlantic and the Arctic oceans to mix at a higher rate?

I am inclined to think the ocean waters are warm this year. But does this drive more mixing or increase stratification stability? I think winds in opposite direction to currents is likely largest driver of mixing.


Cryosat seemed to be showing thicker ice in process of being flushed out through Fram strait. If Greenland area became high perhaps this thicker ice is managing to persist or if it goes lower perhaps it is water temperatures or maybe quantity of ice transport will cause larger effect on Greenland Sea ice area. Seems like lots of different possibilities? But I am not an expert so take answer with large dose of caution and previous answer (seem when got to end of typing) may well be better.

[AbruptSLR]

The first attached image shows the Nullschool Arctic Surface Temp & Wind Map for today May 12 2016, indicating extensive areas of above freezing temperatures over the Beaufort Sea; while the second attached image shows the Nullschool Arctic Surface Temp & Wind forecast for tomorrow May 13 2016, indicating a smaller but still significant area of above freezing surface temperatures in the Beaufort Sea.

[Andreas T]

I think you have it mostly right, crandles, there have been changes in the speed with which floes move past 80deg latitude and extent in Greenland sea does reflect that, melt rate also must have an effect so temperatures of adjoining water and weather inputs play a part. No easy guesses without doing the work of quantifying these effects especially when comparing different years rather than week to week.
As for currents and mixing a much better understanding such things as water density is required which is affected by temperature and salinity and flows which have quite complex drivers, sea floor contours and coriolis effect just to mention some. This is well beyond some low science input gut-based opinion forming.
I would say (as a guess) stratification and reduced inflow of warm water is as likely as increased exchange of heat via water flows. There are people who have spent a lot more time to figure this out than me and they don't seem sure enough to make clear predictions.

[F.Tnioli]

...
I am inclined to think the ocean waters are warm this year. But does this drive more mixing or increase stratification stability? I think winds in opposite direction to currents is likely largest driver of mixing.
...

Yep, it does, and i even dare think that the effect is definitely substantial in terms of how much more mixing it does.

Warmer waters = more evaporation. More moisture in the air = more and stronger (average) winds. And like you said, more/stronger winds directly cause more mixing. Isn't this obvious, i wonder.

There is a reason strongest near-surface winds of Earth are always happening within strongest max-moisture-filled athmospheric formations, can call those "hurricanes" or "storms" or whatever you want, - never heard about those with clear sky full of dry air, you? =)

And there is a reason that new "6th" grade for strength of hurricanes is proposed to be added to the grade lately, - with warming going on, old maximum of strength=5 becomes increasingly insufficient to describe some of biggest things going around nowadays.

[wehappyfew]

Above freezing temps in Beaufort:

I think a long-time poster here (can't remember their name) has repeatedly emphasized the importance of warm, moist air for its melting effect.

At this point, albedo is still quite high because there are few melt ponds, still significant snow cover, etc. so the near 24 hour solar input is mostly reflected. But we see the weather maps predicting several episodes of warm air blowing over the very hot, recently melted tundra of Alaska and eastern Siberia... onto the Chukchi, Beaufort and ESS. In some areas, the wind will blow over 20degC land masses, picking up lots of moisture.

I think that is more important than whether the air temp is +2 or -2 C. The moisture will condense, and the air temp will drop to near freezing no matter what... the air temp is pegged to the freezing point over ice until melt ponds and open water appear. So if +5C  very dry air blows over the ice, a very small amount of melting occurs, and that air mass drops to 0 or +1 C.

But if +20C air at 90% humidity blows over the ice, the air mass still drops to 0 or +1 C, but it has added many more joules to melting the snow and ice due to condensation of all that moisture.

Let me try a bit math to quantify this:

1. Dry, +5C air cools to 0C ~= 5 kJ/kg dry air

2. Moist, +20C air cools to 0C ~= 20.2 kJ + 25 kJ/kg moist air = 45.7 kJ

(the +20C moist air loses about 0.01kg of water per kg of air, releasing 2507 kJ/kg H2O as it condenses)

So more than nine times as much heat delivered to the ice.

(hopefully I got the physics and math right)

[Laurent]

I am sure there is a dragon in the upper left corner of that animation !
(From 1st to 12th)

[seaicesailor]

Above freezing temps in Beaufort:

I think a long-time poster here (can't remember their name) has repeatedly emphasized the importance of warm, moist air for its melting effect.

Great explanation, but what I dont understand is why you compare 5C dry to 20C moist and not same temperatures.
Also would you consider sublimation in the first case or be insignificant?

[Robert Greer]

Wow, looks like Beaufort is set up for some serious melt. If that actualizes, will the ice above the CAA be more likely to get sucked into Beaufort and melt out?

[icy voyeur]

... At the absolute zero Kelvin, no mixing occurs (hehe). On the other hand, close to 370 degrees Kelvin, lots of mixing occurs (as evident from boiling any container of water). 

Tried to ignore this but it's bugging me. I'd discourage the image of boiling water as being a good model of thermal motion at 373 K. If you watch a pot, well of course it won't boil [that's a joke, old wives tale in English]. More seriously, what you'll first see at close to boiling is lots of convective flow because the water on the bottom of the pot gets hotter first, and lighter so it rises. That's not the same as just the thermal energy as it depends on thermal gradients. And then once things are actually boiling you've got mechanical mixing as water vaporizes at the bottom of the pot and the bubbles rise.
Sure, thermal energy produces more movement but it isn't even close to as aggressive as boiling water.
Bit nitpicky but it is a sciency forum.

[seaicesailor]

There is also the problem that these monthly temperature ranks are taken for Latitude 80N and above. In weather maps it is not unusual to see that a warm air mass from the Pacific or North America may come accompanied of cold air squeezed from Greenland toward the Pole, with the result that this mean 80N temperature becomes anomalously cold while it is anomalously warm in Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS.

Actually, Andrew Slater's 925hPa temperature charts are based on a larger area shown in this map:

Oh  I'd swear I saw these charts with the 80N in the title

[Laurent]

Wow, looks like Beaufort is set up for some serious melt. If that actualizes, will the ice above the CAA be more likely to get sucked into Beaufort and melt out?

It will start melting before being sucked, what is left of thick old ice will vanish soon.  http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif

[wehappyfew]

Above freezing temps in Beaufort:

I think a long-time poster here (can't remember their name) has repeatedly emphasized the importance of warm, moist air for its melting effect.

Great explanation, but what I dont understand is why you compare 5C dry to 20C moist and not same temperatures.
Also would you consider sublimation in the first case or be insignificant?

My point (not made explicitly, or clearly... sorry) is that +5C air flowing into the Arctic Basin will raise the temps of the ice to +1 or 0C ... that this is common, has a small effect, and not very noteworthy.

But +20C moist air, which is predicted to arrive in the next few days, has a huge effect, is much rarer, yet will still look about the same over the Arctic basin temperature maps (at this early stage of the melt season)... ie, +1 or 0C over the ice.

Restated, my point is that the temps over the ice pack will never rise much above freezing in May, but there can be a huge variation in the melting rate depending on the amount of moisture advected over the ice.

Later, once melt ponds and open water appear, temps can rise a bit more.

Sublimation? Not sure about the relative importance. At 0C, air can't hold much moisture, so I expect it gets saturated very soon as it crosses over from dry land to ice or water. A related point is that the lands around the Arctic shore are NOT dry right now, they are sloppy wet from recently melted snow... Alaska will be warming to +20C even on the North Slope (from solar gain/low albedo?). This will evaporate some of the standing water, then the winds carry this moisture north.

I'm predicting the effect on the ice will be dramatic when the moisture hits it.

[werther]

This is the set-up for two-three days next week:



It doesn’t look like a longer lasting dipole, but it sure is a deep ridge-related intrusion of warmth into the CAB. Remaining cold is pushed into the N Atlantic sector.
On a sideline: the River Lena is breaking loose into Jakutsk today. There are also small puddles up to 500 km from the mouth of the river. Next week will bring +10dC to the shores of the East Sib Sea.

[theoldinsane]

Above freezing temps in Beaufort:

I think a long-time poster here (can't remember their name) has repeatedly emphasized the importance of warm, moist air for its melting effect.

Great explanation, but what I dont understand is why you compare 5C dry to 20C moist and not same temperatures.
Also would you consider sublimation in the first case or be insignificant?

Maximum moisture in air at 5 C is 5.4 g/kg (RH 100 %).
Maximum moisture in air at 20 C is 14.7 g/kg (RH 100 %).

http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/psychrometric-chart-mollier-d_27.html

Maybe this is an answer?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Actually F18 extent (calculated as NSIDC does it) for 9 May is 12.377 Mm²

Daily updated data are here:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/nsidc_nt_nrt_summary.txt
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/nsidc_nt_nrt_main.txt
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/nsidc_nt_detail.txt

More similar data (antarctic, Uni Hamburg) can be found in the same folder.

Cheers for providing the data.

The NSIDC extent with the 5 day mean is currently lowest on record by just over 400k, and is 1.06 million below 2012.
It's also been lowest on record for 25 days consecutive days, and in the bottom 3 for 47 consecutive days

[werther]

BTW Humidity is a good transmitter of warmth, but the Arctic is a dry environment. The present ridging brings in humidity, but it is in no way comparable to what we experience in the mid-latitudes. Normal over the Beaufort is about 6 kg/m2 of precipitable water acc to NCEP/NCAR. It rises to 20 kg/m2 in the GFS forecasts. 
That should be enough for a vast stretch of blue hue on MODIS.

[Lord M Vader]

BIG pattern change coming up in the Arctic. After more than a month with -AO the latest consensus ensemble calls for a switch to hugely positive values in the next days. After that a decline to more neutral values is anticipated.

This lead us to following: we MAY see a "saved by the bell" in the Arctic if a return to more neutral/positive AO values are to kick in = more cyclonic weather, clouds and lower temps.

The Siberian high pressure is currently HUGE, if we would go to see a record low value by September we should need a more dipole to set up including a stronger high pressure over Greenland and a lower pressure over Siberia. Nothing of this is imminent in the next 4 weeks if one is to believe the most recent runs from CPC NOAA at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

No, we won't see a new record low this year either unless things changes. I expect the SIE to catch up with other years by late June to mid July.

Questions on that?

[bbr2314]

BIG pattern change coming up in the Arctic. After more than a month with -AO the latest consensus ensemble calls for a switch to hugely positive values in the next days. After that a decline to more neutral values is anticipated.

This lead us to following: we MAY see a "saved by the bell" in the Arctic if a return to more neutral/positive AO values are to kick in = more cyclonic weather, clouds and lower temps.

The Siberian high pressure is currently HUGE, if we would go to see a record low value by September we should need a more dipole to set up including a stronger high pressure over Greenland and a lower pressure over Siberia. Nothing of this is imminent in the next 4 weeks if one is to believe the most recent runs from CPC NOAA at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

No, we won't see a new record low this year either unless things changes. I expect the SIE to catch up with other years by late June to mid July.

Questions on that?

I think you are smoking crack. None of the models show any substantial cold through D10 and if there is any cold it will be centered over the North Atlantic, not the icepack. Through D10 the Pac side continues to get decimated on most models. Meanwhile pack is getting smoked on all sides and the cold in NATL will actually help FRAM export since it is a result of the quasi-perma LP setting up between Svalbard and Iceland.

[Tealight]

If one is to believe the most recent runs from CPC NOAA at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
...

Questions on that?

Have you ever verified that 3-4 week forecasts are accurate?

When I look at Nullschool GFS forecast in 5 days, then the arctic gets flushed out of fram strait with melting temperatures from Chukchi all the way to the pole. By then the ice cover is so low that the arctic doesn't need additional heat from lower latitudes anymore to continue at average melt rates.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/05/17/0000Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=4.78,94.67,928/loc=166.457,82.318

[AbruptSLR]

If one is to believe the most recent runs from CPC NOAA at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
...

Questions on that?

Have you ever verified that 3-4 week forecasts are accurate?

When I look at Nullschool GFS forecast in 5 days, then the arctic gets flushed out of fram strait with melting temperatures from Chukchi all the way to the pole. By then the ice cover is so low that the arctic doesn't need additional heat from lower latitudes anymore to continue at average melt rates.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/05/17/0000Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=4.78,94.67,928/loc=166.457,82.318

Historically, a sustained highly positive AO has lead to massive ice export out the Fram (see the attached image)

[cesium62]

That's a testable hypothesis:

What do you think?  Does a warm May correlate well with record setting melts?

Not very good test - the ice and more important snow on top of it shows only significant reactions to _above_ freezing temperatures. So average temperatures so far below freezing are bad statistics. If you tried area in CAB exposed to melt, things would be very different.

Nice bait and switch.

[cesium62]

Oh  I'd swear I saw these charts with the 80N in the title

Slater has 80N 2-meter charts and 925hPa charts.  As he points out, the 80N charts basically tell you that there is ice north of 80N and not much else.  Hence I picked the 925hPa charts.

[AvantHiatus]

RIP Arctic. These levels of preconditioning simply cannot be overcome. Euro is on the edge of locking in historic melt whereas the GFS is a lock. GFS does not see the PV consolidation over Greenland atm. We will have to see if the Euro holds steady.

Arctic averaged 2m Temp
http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/gfsanom_np.png

[Michael Hauber]

I think you are smoking crack. None of the models show any substantial cold through D10 and if there is any cold it will be centered over the North Atlantic, not the icepack. Through D10 the Pac side continues to get decimated on most models. Meanwhile pack is getting smoked on all sides and the cold in NATL will actually help FRAM export since it is a result of the quasi-perma LP setting up between Svalbard and Iceland.

The EC run I'm lookin at now has the Atlantic low push close enough to the pole by day 10 to be quite helpful for slowing down the melt season.  The ridge stays on the Pacific to continue smoking the Pacific fringe.  But its a long way out.  Move the low towards the Pacific side and the pattern becomes as good as it can get for slowing this melt season down.  Move it towards the Atlantic and its a raging dipole that will continue the carnage....

[guygee]

Have you ever verified that 3-4 week forecasts are accurate?
[...]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.diff.shtml

[Frivolousz21]

Its 22.4C right now at Inuvik.  The record was 12.3C set in 2012.

That's unreal.

Barrow sounding showed near 5C with a DP of 4C.

That's incredible.


The models slowly crush the CAA the next 10 days.

Early snow cover loss there is well tied to dipole anomalies persisting.

We will see how accurate the models are the next ten days as a huge part of the basin is going to see large albedo drops.

 The models show a nasty and massive WAA regime for 4-5 days.

[Watching_from_Canberra]

O-Buoy #14 has been hovering around 0degC for nearly 24hrs:
http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/weather

[Michael Hauber]

Up to now there has been negligible surface melt within the Arctic Basin proper.  The current model runs suggest that is about to change in a major way.  Will this event cause strong enough melt to be visible in the ADS visualisations?  The earliest date I can find previously is in 2007 were melt is visible in the edges of the Beaufort and Chucki around the 6th of June and extends to a sizeable minority of the Pacific side of the Arctic by the 11th.  2012 is similar and a couple days behind.  I think there were some earlier events limited to ESS fast ice that I didn't count.

[AbruptSLR]

The models slowly crush the CAA the next 10 days.

Early snow cover loss there is well tied to dipole anomalies persisting.

We may soon see the wheels coming off the bus.

[Michael Hauber]

A year ago to the day we were discussing a similar forecast torch to what is forecast currently.  And making similar speculations about a massive melt season: 

But if we saw strong melt conditions continue throughout the entire melt season could we see close to zero ice at the end?  Is this the year we find out?

[EthanOConnor]

Its 22.4C right now at Inuvik.  The record was 12.3C set in 2012.

That's unreal.

Barrow sounding showed near 5C with a DP of 4C.

That's incredible.

GFS nowcast crop attached - 2m temps above freezing halfway to the pole from Barrow; extensive 2-4C across the Beaufort, even where there's ice. HYCOM sees SSTs responding immediately to the newly open water under high pressure and predicts SSTs approaching 2C in parts of the Beaufort in the next few days.

Oh, there's a 3sigmaish melt event in coastal greenland underway as well.

[jdallen]

Next week will bring +10dC to the shores of the East Sib Sea.

Ouch, ouch, OUCH.

[Frivolousz21]

Unreal!!!!!

[Revillo]

Pardon my noobishness (and inability to speak Polish in spite of my Polish heritage) but could Friv or anyone please help explain the figures on that animation? Is that saying Normal / Average as in base period / current and then the anomaly is the difference?

[crandles]

Pardon my noobishness (and inability to speak Polish in spite of my Polish heritage) but could Friv or anyone please help explain the figures on that animation? Is that saying Normal / Average as in base period / current and then the anomaly is the difference?

I think so.

[oren]

Pardon my noobishness (and inability to speak Polish in spite of my Polish heritage) but could Friv or anyone please help explain the figures on that animation? Is that saying Normal / Average as in base period / current and then the anomaly is the difference?

The first chart shows normal air temperature and then average air temperature (for the upcoming period?).
The second chart shows the difference of these two, therefore the anomaly.

[abbottisgone]

Arctic +5.08 

Maybe it will back off a little before then.

Is there also dark red over the Himalayas?

I think mountain climbing might be off again this year 

[oren]

...
Following record low extent in May, 2015 stalled at the beginning of June. A lot of that happened in the Beaufort, which after early record losses got stuck on the same extent of 400k until mid-July, while 2012 got to 200k at that time and to zero at the end of July.
If this year is supposed to continue its record trend, the Beaufort is the place to watch in the next few weeks. We are now on that same 400k, will it continue on its way to a record early date of
ice-free Beaufort, or get totally stuck?
...

Looking at the regional charts again, it seems the Beaufort has passed at least one milestone and managed to drop below 400k after a relatively brief stall, currently down to 381k extent. The break can also be seen in Wipneus' animation at the AMSR2 thread.

Could anyone post an updated chart of the Mackenzie River flow?

[6roucho]

Is there also dark red over the Himalayas?

I think mountain climbing might be off again this year 

On, I think you mean.

[abbottisgone]

Above freezing temps in Beaufort:

I think a long-time poster here (can't remember their name) has repeatedly emphasized the importance of warm, moist air for its melting effect.

At this point, albedo is still quite high because there are few melt ponds, still significant snow cover, etc. so the near 24 hour solar input is mostly reflected. But we see the weather maps predicting several episodes of warm air blowing over the very hot, recently melted tundra of Alaska and eastern Siberia... onto the Chukchi, Beaufort and ESS. In some areas, the wind will blow over 20degC land masses, picking up lots of moisture.

I think that is more important than whether the air temp is +2 or -2 C. The moisture will condense, and the air temp will drop to near freezing no matter what... the air temp is pegged to the freezing point over ice until melt ponds and open water appear. So if +5C  very dry air blows over the ice, a very small amount of melting occurs, and that air mass drops to 0 or +1 C.

But if +20C air at 90% humidity blows over the ice, the air mass still drops to 0 or +1 C, but it has added many more joules to melting the snow and ice due to condensation of all that moisture.

Let me try a bit math to quantify this:

1. Dry, +5C air cools to 0C ~= 5 kJ/kg dry air

2. Moist, +20C air cools to 0C ~= 20.2 kJ + 25 kJ/kg moist air = 45.7 kJ

(the +20C moist air loses about 0.01kg of water per kg of air, releasing 2507 kJ/kg H2O as it condenses)

So more than nine times as much heat delivered to the ice.

(hopefully I got the physics and math right)

I've basically been told that water vapour melts ice!

[DavidR]

Looking at Worldview it looks like the ice above North East Greenland is going, as Olaf  says, "where snow goes in summer" and its not Frozen.