2022 Food developments

[Bruce Steele]

Smithfield says it is just too expensive to operate in Calif.  So Vernon is in downtown LA and it only has a population of 100-200 people. Smithfield/ FarmerJohn / Nathan’s Best ( all the same thing )
I have seen semi trucks carrying hogs on the I-40 headed into LA from Arizona. It is one of the hottest places in the US and any hog so transported is put under enormous heat stress crossing the desert before they are slaughtered. Shitty for the hogs and expensive to transport
Calif. has a high minimum wage compared to the Midwest so labor costs are high
And Calif has passed a confinement law that is suppose to give breeding sows more space. Although the confinement law is trying to address animal welfare it is a terrible paperwork nightmare and will be expensive to implement , requires paying inspectors, and obviously adds to operating expenses
Don’t bother to read this link but here is how the law looks
. https://www.cdfa.ca.gov/ahfss/pdfs/regulations/AnimalCare-Second_15-day_Comment_Period_Documents.pdf
Calif. doesn’t produce much corn or soy so feed costs and  transport costs are also higher than places closer to where the feed crops are grown.
Standard pork prices for finished product aren’t higher than other parts of the US .  High end pork ( yes there is such a thing ) does have some market  support that doesn’t exist in the Midwest so there is a small specialty market for heirloom breeds like the pigs I raise but even selling pork at $11 a pound average doesn’t cover expenses these days.
 Calif. is la-la land, nothing needs to make sense.
there are lots of disincentives and no real benefits.  Farming doesn’t pay and small scale agriculture is a pipe dream. Welcome to the future where the public is completely separated from their food sources and they have no idea about how to grow their own… but happy motoring and enjoy the sun.

[etienne]

Laws protecting nature and animals are very complicated to create.
Control is even more difficult.
Luxembourg has achieved a law preventing the planting of new trees. They simply defined a monetary value for nature, so the result is that you avoid creating nature because you'll have to pay to remove it. Built areas are not concerned, but anytime you want to do something on non built areas, you need to pay somebody that will define the future damage, and the government will check and send you the invoice. In cities, you don't have too many costs because nature isn't as present, but if you need a barn...

[neal]

KFC Switches to Cabbage Mix In Australia Due to Lettuce Shortage

“The fact that you are replacing lettuce with cabbage makes me rethink my whole meal at KFC. There’s 4 or 5 other things I would eat before cabbage Its such a weird choice,” wrote one disgruntled Twitter user.

“Feels like a sign of the apocalypse,” said another.

Apocalypse??  Cabbage vs iceberg lettuce?

[vox_mundi]

Baby Formula Production at Abbott's Michigan Plant Halted After Flooding from Severe Storms
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/15/health/abbott-formula-plant-flood-delay/index.html

Abbott has stopped production of EleCare formula in its Sturgis, Michigan, plant after severe storms led to flooding inside the plant, the company said, probably delaying production of new formula for a few weeks.

Production at the plant had restarted less than two weeks ago following a months-long closure that helped drive a nationwide formula shortage.

"Severe thunderstorms and heavy rains came through southwestern Michigan on Monday evening, resulting in high winds, hail, power outages and flood damage throughout the area," Abbott said in a statement Wednesday night. "These torrential storms produced significant rainfall in a short period of time -- overwhelming the city's stormwater system in Sturgis, Mich., and resulting in flooding in parts of the city, including areas of our plant.

"As a result, Abbott has stopped production of its EleCare specialty formula that was underway to assess damage caused by the storm and clean and re-sanitize the plant. We have informed FDA and will conduct comprehensive testing in conjunction with the independent third party to ensure the plant is safe to resume production. This will likely delay production and distribution of new product for a few weeks."

... The plant had been shut down for months after an FDA inspection that found Cronobacter sakazakii bacteria, which can be deadly to infants, in several areas. Similac, Alimentum and EleCare powdered infant formulas made at the plant were recalled, and the closure exacerbated shortages caused by supply chain disruptions. Families across the United States have struggled for months to find formula for infants and for people with specific nutrition needs.

Califf said last month that the shuttered Michigan plant needed extensive repairs, including replacing the roof and floors.

"You just can't open a plant with bacteria growing in it," he said during a Senate committee hearing. "I mean, would you go in a kitchen next door if there was bacteria growing all over the place, and standing water and people tromping through with mud on their feet? Which is essentially what the inspection showed."

... sounds like the local diner 

... Califf called the latest closure an "unfortunate setback and a reminder that natural climate change extreme weather events can also cause unforeseen supply chain disruptions."

--------------------------------------------------------------

[vox_mundi]

Climate Change Is Coming for Your Ketchup
https://phys.org/news/2022-06-climate-ketchup.html

According to a study published in Nature Food, rising temperatures are projected to lower yields around the world for "processing tomatoes"—the cultivar used in ketchup and other tomato products. By 2050, the global supply of processing tomatoes is expected to decrease by 6% compared to the study's baseline of 1990–2009, with Italy's crop being among the hardest hit.

"The processing tomatoes are grown in the open fields, which means that we cannot control the environment in which they grow. This makes the production vulnerable to climate change," said lead author Davide Cammarano, a professor at Aarhus University.

While the climate's impact on the food supply is widely researched, most of the focus has been on staples such as wheat and rice. This study is among the first to take a global look at climate change's impact on tomatoes.



Davide Cammarano et al, Processing tomato production is expected to decrease by 2050 due to the projected increase in temperature, Nature Food (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00521-y

[Sigmetnow]

"The processing tomatoes are grown in the open fields, which means that we cannot control the environment in which they grow. This makes the production vulnerable to climate change," …

How long until the better yield from climate-controlled, solar-powered, water-conserving, fertilizer-sparing, pesticide-free, enclosed vertical farms makes them more profitable than traditional farming methods for selected crops in endangered locations?

[kassy]

It would require building the infrastructure first and then beating the local economy.

There is a limited amount of things you can grow that way anyway. But there are chances. You can grow leavy greens that way in places that need to import it at high costs. It can beat classical farming at some things when when the latter fails but there is also a lot of things it can not substitute. You can´t grow hay in it, or orchards. Integrating animals is harder. Building soils inside has its limits etc.

[etienne]

It is also a different type of product. Vegetables for cannings don't need a perfect look, but must be very cheap, so you need a low energy and maintenance process.

[Shared Humanity]

"The processing tomatoes are grown in the open fields, which means that we cannot control the environment in which they grow. This makes the production vulnerable to climate change," …

How long until the better yield from climate-controlled, solar-powered, water-conserving, fertilizer-sparing, pesticide-free, enclosed vertical farms makes them more profitable than traditional farming methods for selected crops in endangered locations?

The problem with growing indoors vegetables that are actually the fruit of the plant in the quantities needed (tomatoes, peppers) is that you need pollinators.

[vox_mundi]

Thousands of Cattle Dead Due to Heatwave in Kansas
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/16/cattle-deaths-kansas-heat-wave-climate

The record-breaking heat sweeping across the US is having a deadly effect on livestock, with Kansas reporting 2,000 cattle dead.

This week, the National Weather Services (NWS) predicted extreme heat on parts of the Gulf coast and spreading to the Great Lakes in the midwest, with more than 100 million Americans advised to stay inside to fight the heat.

Kansas has also been hard hit and will continue to be. The state is among the top three producers of beef in the country, where there are twice as many cows as people, and beef is among its top exports.

“What is clear is that the livestock (and human, for that matter) heat stress issue will become increasingly challenging for livestock farmers to deal with, as the world warms,” said Philip Thornton, a climate researcher and professor who authored a 2021 report on the impact of increasing heat on livestock

Increases in extreme heat stress in domesticated livestock species during the twenty-first century, Global Change Biology, (2021)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.15825

[Shared Humanity]

Large areas of the planet will no longer be inhabitable by large mammals of any type. Small mammals (rodents) that live underground? Sure, but nothing else.

[vox_mundi]

Maxar’s WeatherDesk Predicts a Significant Decline in Ukrainian Crop Harvests
https://blog.maxar.com/earth-intelligence/2022/maxars-weatherdesk-predicts-a-significant-decline-in-ukrainian-crop-harvests?utm_source=maxar-news-bureau&utm_medium=organic

This year’s Ukraine crop forecast looks to be about 30% less than last year, according to analysis from the satellite imaging firm Maxar Technologies, which published a lengthy agriculture report Thursday. And that reduction suggests corn output will drop by 54% and sunflower production will decrease by 40% compared to 2021 yields. The hardest-hit oblasts are Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Poltava, and Suma—and several others in northern Ukraine, where Russian forces began their invasion in late February.



It is still early in the growing season, however, factors such as weather, ongoing fighting and the availability of fertilizer and other inputs may cause changes in the coming weeks

Meanwhile, “Russians continue to take grain from Ukraine and transport it to other regions of the world,” Maxar notes, and shares supporting imagery to back up the allegation of food theft by Vlad the invader’s regime, which is shipping stolen Ukrainian grain to Crimea and Sevastopol, then on to Latakia, Syria.



The Maxar News Bureau has previously released high-resolution satellite imagery showing two Russian-flagged bulk carrier ships docked in the Russian-controlled Crimean port of Sevastopol and BEING LOADED WITH GRAIN (below left). Days later, Maxar satellites collected images of the same ships DOCKED IN SYRIA, with their hatches open and semi-trucks lined up ready to haul the grain away (below right).

This does not appear to be an isolated incident. A new Maxar satellite image (below) from June 12, 2022, shows a different ship being loaded with grain in Sevastopol.

https://blog.maxar.com/earth-intelligence/2022/maxars-weatherdesk-predicts-a-significant-decline-in-ukrainian-crop-harvests?utm_source=maxar-news-bureau&utm_medium=organic

[etienne]

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s prime minister says economy has ‘completely collapsed’
Ranil Wickremesinghe’s comments come as island faces its worst crisis in recent memory, though PM didn’t cite any new developments

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/23/sri-lanka-prime-minister-economy-completely-collapsed

The first impacts are becoming visible.
I guess we will see many political changes the next years.
Sri Lanka has other issues than just the war in Ukraine, but it is always the places with the most sides issues that fall first.

[vox_mundi]

https://www.ft.com/content/c3336e46-b852-4f10-9716-e0f9645767c4

People are hungry’: food crisis starts to bite across Africa
Signs of inflation-linked unrest are emerging, aid agencies warn

[The Walrus]

Global hunger has increased since the pandemic began.  COVID disrupted global supply chains and increased prices for many commodities.  Prior to that, great strides were made in reducing hunger across the globe.

https://www.actionagainsthunger.org/world-hunger-facts-statistics

Conflict is starting to catch up with poverty as the leading cause of hunger globally.

[The Walrus]

In another positive sign, global food prices fell for the third consecutive month, and the biggest drop of the year.  This may not alleviate hunger issues in the poorer nations, as prices are still well above 2021 values, but at least they are moving lower. 

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

[Paddy]

Global food prices have actually been very slowly dropping for the last three months, although they're still much higher than they were a year ago: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

[The Walrus]

Most of the increase in food prices can be directly tied to fuel prices.  Over the past two years, the price of crude oil has incresed $65, from $35/barrel to $110.  The FAO food price index as increased 65 points, from 90 to 155.  The price of crude oil is continuing to fall.  Hence, food prices should follow suit.

[Sigmetnow]

Opinion: The 'cheap food' era could soon be over. Here's what comes next

Last year, Ukraine was the fifth largest exporter of wheat onto the global market. The invasion in February followed the planting of the winter wheat crop, which, despite the incursion of Russian tanks, is now ready for harvest.

But this harvest will be markedly different as the war continues to rage. Those farmers who have stayed are wary of unexploded missiles and ordnance that lie scattered in their fields. Some are musing burning crops rather than risk losing their combine harvesters and tractors -- or their lives -- bringing them in.

Adding to the crisis, Russia's deliberate blockade of Odesa's ports is preventing the grain harvested last year being shipped from Ukraine to import-dependent countries like Egypt, Libya and Somalia -- all now in desperate need.
…

If it weren't for the backdrop of extreme weather combined with spiraling oil and gas prices, and supply chain issues, today's food crisis might be manageable. But the global food system has both relied on the stability of good weather whilst undermining climate stability by creating greenhouse gas emissions at an alarming rate -- some 30% of all emissions are related to the food system.

This is partly because fossil fuels are used to do everything from heat glasshouses to manufacture fertilizers. (The energy needed to produce nitrogen fertilizers explains why Russia, as a major oil producer, is the leading manufacturer and exporter.) Significant emissions also arise from clearing land for agriculture, coupled with an increased focus on producing cheap meat.
…

Beyond the cheap food era
Over 70 years, we have collectively designed a food system to deliver an excess of calories as cheaply as possible, with little focus on nutrition. The result is ever cheaper and more processed food, through long and complex supply chains, with the health and environmental consequences it brings.

All that is happening now means the era of cheap food may be over. If it is, different solutions emerge.
…

Across the world, more grain is now fed to livestock and used for fuel production than humans eat. In the European Union, including the UK, 61% of all grain produced gets fed to livestock, with only 23% being eaten by humans. A small change in the amount of meat people eat can potentially free up a lot of grain or land for food -- whilst also being healthier.

Similarly, reducing food waste becomes a moral imperative. Globally, about a fifth of all food grown for humans is wasted, every part a burden on the system.

Security actually means a diversity of domestic and non-domestic supply routes so if something goes wrong (think "mad cow disease," "bird flu" or extreme weather) there are alternatives. It should also mean a supply of healthy, affordable food. But our current system doesn't deliver that.

The war in Ukraine is showing us how badly the food system provides for people and the planet. There is another battle to fight with renewed vigor -- for the future of the food system.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/13/opinions/russia-wheat-grain-blockade-ukraine-food-benton/index.html

[The Walrus]

Rather than over, this is more likely to just be a blip in the system.  The war will not rage forever, and when the dust settles (whoever prevails), the wheat harvest will return to prewar levels.  We currently produce more food than required for human consumption.  It will take more than a small conflict to cause the end of "cheap food."

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

To be honest, loading up human guts with more creative uses of corn, soy, wheat, and hydrogenated seed oils (which is what we will get, it's cheap and it's already in everything) sounds pretty bleak considering corn and soy derivatives are already the backbone of our disgusting and fattening food industry.

Beyond the cheap food era
Over 70 years, we have collectively designed a food system to deliver an excess of calories as cheaply as possible, with little focus on nutrition. The result is ever cheaper and more processed food, through long and complex supply chains, with the health and environmental consequences it brings.

All that is happening now means the era of cheap food may be over. If it is, different solutions emerge.

Across the world, more grain is now fed to livestock and used for fuel production than humans eat. In the European Union, including the UK, 61% of all grain produced gets fed to livestock, with only 23% being eaten by humans. A small change in the amount of meat people eat can potentially free up a lot of grain or land for food -- whilst also being healthier.

There's a reason most of that grain is cattle feed, it's not amazing quality or particularly nutritious in human consumption quantities, but shoveled into a trough with other enriched feed and you can grow some hefty livestock. Although it may still seem energy intensive, lean proteins like chicken and fish can provide some very important and much less processed sources of vitamins and nutrients for a human diet. Substituting that chunk of the pie with more corn syrup, soybean oil, and flour is only going to make us sicker and more obese. I'll keep spending my money on sustainably raised chicken and fish as long as I can continue to afford it. Someone else can clog up their heart and GI track with the cattle feed and soy.

That all being said, I certainly appreciate the operating principle at hand, and we have a massive food problem brewing. In my opinion, locally grown and distributed, sustainable small-medium scale operations are the ideal future (which probably means corporate ag will continue to fight against their development)

[trm1958]

World’s Food Supply Faces New Threat From Lack of Rain in India
Pratik Parija and Vrishti Beniwal
Wed, August 3, 2022 at 2:46 a.m.·4 min read
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/worlds-food-supply-faces-threat-000000298.html

Rice could emerge as the next challenge for global food supply as a shortage of rain in parts of India, by far the world’s biggest exporter, has caused planting area to shrink to the smallest in about three years.

[The Walrus]

Many are forecasting global food prices to fall [sharply].  Many prices have fallen to the levels pre-Russian invasive of Ukraine.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-food-price-inflation-likely-to-fall-sharply-in-2023-03-08-2022

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/rising-food-prices-2022-outlook

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4cda3ceaa5a01b7590e7105fd5e6ca4f-0320012022/original/Food-Security-update-LXVI-July-15-2022.pdf

Much of this is tied to the decline in crude oil prices, which have to their lowest level since January.

[The Walrus]

Food prices dropped significantly last month.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/08/1124012

[gerontocrat]

When the FAO Food price Index goes up the knee-jerk reaction is "PANIC!"
When the FAO Food price Index goes down the knee-jerk reaction is "Problem Solved!"

So what is this index? It is a measure of international prices of just 5 basic commodity groups weighted according to average export shares.

A look at what commodities are included suggests to me that a diet limited to these items is not conducive to good health in the long-term. Many food commodities essential to good health - e.g. fruit & vegetables - are not included

Commodities used include some with significant non-food use; palmoil, maize, sugar to name three.

A very large number of people do not consume food sourced from these international markets - food is grown locally by subsistence and small farmers for local consumption.

The index is a good measure of food costs for Urban populations living in middle to high-income countries and some low-income countries already highly urbanised.. Is it a good measure for the rest of humankind? I think not.
___________________________________________________
NOTES
FAO Food Price Index - https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016.

The five commodity price indices are...
 FAO Cereal Price Index
 FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index
 FAO Dairy Price Index
 FAO Meat Price Index
 FAO Sugar Price Index

Non-food influences..
Concerns over demand prospects due to expectations of a further slowdown of the global economy in 2022 weighed on international sugar price quotations. The decline in prices was also triggered by the weakening of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar and lower ethanol prices

There are many non-food uses of vegetable oil - e.g. Palmoil

[El Cid]

Maybe the FAo food index is like democracy: not perfect but you can not give us any better.


BTW, I think, if you look at those food groups: grains, vegoil, dairy and meat that most of humanity gets at least 80% of its caloric intake from these and definitely not from local vegetables and fruits. So it is actually quite representative.

[The Walrus]

I agree with you El Cid.  None of our indices, economic or otherwise, are perfect, but they aim to capture reality as best we can.

[Rodius]

I wonder how long it will be before people in cities start to grow food in gardens again?

[The Walrus]

I wonder how long it will be before people in cities start to grow food in gardens again?

It has already started.  Backyard gardens are frequent in smaller cities and suburban areas, while rooftop gardens can be found in big cities.

[El Cid]

I wonder how long it will be before people in cities start to grow food in gardens again?

surprisingly big amounts of food can be grown in small spaces...my experience is that in a raised bed, full of compost, irrigated, you can grow 3 very healthy crops in our Central European climate (eg plant peas, salads, onions at the end of March, then as you thin them out transplant/plant cucumber, melon, beans, corn, etc in May and then at the end of August plant greens, peas, chard, etc again) providing a constant flow of fresh food from May till November...

on the previous subject:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32556305/

This is about Sub-Saharan Africa:

"Daily average per capita meat consumption was 98 g - above the 70 g recommendation - while fruit and vegetable intake (268 g) remain below the World Health Organization's recommendation (400 g). "

This means that less than 10% of their caloric intake comes from vegetables and fruits. Most comes from grains, dairy and meat well covered by the FAO index

[gerontocrat]

Man does not live by calories alone.

Nutrient Deficiency or Disease
These include, but are not limited to,
Protein Energy Malnutrition, Scurvy, Rickets, Beriberi, Hypocalcemia, Osteomalacia, Vitamin K Deficiency, Pellagra, Xerophthalmia, and Iron Deficiency.

[oren]

I wonder how long it will be before people in cities start to grow food in gardens again?

I think most people in urban areas (high rise buildings) don't have even a small garden. US style suburbs are a different scenario, but many countries are much more densely populated than the US.

[The Walrus]

Man does not live by calories alone.

Nutrient Deficiency or Disease
These include, but are not limited to,
Protein Energy Malnutrition, Scurvy, Rickets, Beriberi, Hypocalcemia, Osteomalacia, Vitamin K Deficiency, Pellagra, Xerophthalmia, and Iron Deficiency.

True, but that matters very little to those with severe hunger.   

[kassy]

French maize crop rating tumbles as drought deepens

French maize crop conditions declined steeply last week to their lowest level in at least a decade, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed, as a worsening drought and latest heatwave baked fields in the European Union's top grain producer.

An estimated 53% of French grain maize was in good or excellent condition by Aug. 8, down from a revised 62% for the previous week, FranceAgriMer said in a cereal crop report on Friday.

That was the lowest maize score for the time of year in FranceAgriMer data going back to 2011.

This year's rating has shed around 30 percentage points in the past month, spoiling what had been a good start to the growing season.

Maize is among the crops most exposed to France's worst drought on record, which has been exacerbated by successive heatwaves that have also fanned wildfires.

A year ago, 91% of maize was rated good or excellent by the same week, FranceAgriMer said.

...

The hot, dry summer is expected to lead to an early start to French maize harvesting in the coming month, after quicker than usual harvests for other cereals.

Farmers ended spring barley harvesting last week, after already finishing harvesting soft wheat, winter barley and durum wheat, FranceAgriMer said.

https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-maize-crop-rating-tumbles-drought-deepens-1703583

I bet there are similar problems in all the other places with prolonged heat waves.

[The Walrus]

No doubt that the drought in Europe is having a negative affect of various food prices.  Corn futures are up 1% today, and have risen 12% since their July low.  However, they are still down over 20% from the May high. 

[The Walrus]

As crops come to market, here are the current harvest price trends:

Corn:  Up 20% from 2021 harvest, Down 20% from spring high, Up 15% from last month.
Wheat:  Up 12% from '21, Down 50% from spring high, Up 3% from last month
Soybeans:  Up 30% from '21, Down 8% from spring high, Up 8% from last month
Rice:  Up 20% from '21, unchanged from spring high, unchanged from last month
Oats:  Down 25% from '21, Down 80% from spring high, Down 8% from last month
Sugar:  Down 6% from '21, Down 10% from spring high, Up 3% from last month.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/corn

[oren]

Reading the above makes it almost sound like we are back to normal and everything is fine. As usual reality is somewhat different. The long term trends are up, and we are currently still much above the semi-stable plateaus of recent years.

[oren]

I doubt oats and sugar are as important as the four crops above, but here are long term charts for these as well.

[The Walrus]

Four of the major food sources; corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice are up an average of 20% year over year.  That is hardly "back to normal and everything is fine."  The spike that occurred after the Ukranian invasion appears to be over, and we are back to the "normal" rise in commodity prices, if that is the point that you are making.

Sugar is the number one commodity in the world - by far.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1003455/most-produced-crops-and-livestock-products-worldwide/

Oats are an important animal feedstock, in addition to its value as a cereal grain.  In the U.S., corn is tha major feedstock, but other countries use oats and other grains more commonly.

[vox_mundi]

Ukraine Conflict May Hike Long-Term Grain Prices 7%: Study
https://phys.org/news/2022-09-ukraine-conflict-hike-long-term-grain.html

Russia's invasion of Ukraine may cause long-term grain prices to rise seven percent, according to a study on Monday showing how expanded production elsewhere to compensate would lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions.

... Researchers in the United States and Uruguay modeled the likely impact of the conflict on wheat and maize prices over the coming 12 months, looking at a variety of scenarios.

One model found that if Russian grain exports were halved and Ukrainian exports significantly reduced during that time, maize would be 4.6 percent more expensive and wheat 7.2 percent more expensive—even assuming that other exporters could step in and fill the shortfall.

They said the price increase would persist as long as exports remained restricted.

To close the supply gap, the study found that other major producers would need to expand their grain growing areas significantly.

Were all grain exports from Ukraine to cease, Australia would need to expand its wheat area by 1 percent, China by 1.5 percent, the European Union by 1.9 percent and India by 1.2 percent, according to the model.

This land-use change would lead to just over a billion tons of additional carbon dioxide equivalent added to the atmosphere, according to the study published in Nature Food.

"The cropland expansion resulting from the war in Ukraine is occurring at the expense of more carbon emissions," said lead author Jerome Dumortier, a researcher at the O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs in Indianapolis, US.

... Figures from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization show food prices are currently more than 10 percent higher than they were a year ago.

Although Moscow and Kyiv reached an agreement in July to resume some grain exports, there are fears that the conflict could lead to years of elevated food prices.

Dumortier said that it was not currently clear whether other grain producers were able to meet global demand, meaning prices could rise even further than predicted in the models.

"There are drought conditions in South America, Europe, and China, and export restrictions from various countries," he told AFP.

"Given those hinderances to full adjustment, commodity prices may be higher than what is estimated in the paper."

Jerome Dumortier, Trade scenarios compensating for halted wheat and maize exports from Russia and Ukraine increase carbon emissions without easing food insecurity, Nature Food (2022).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00600-0