Heatwaves

[kassy]

Spain sees winter heatwave amid warning of extreme summer

Spain’s weather agency says abnormally high temperatures for the season are set to continue in many parts of the country over the weekend.

The hot spell has led to an almost summer-like feel in many coastal areas as people take to the beaches to sunbathe or have a winter swim.

The country’s AEMET weather agency said the high temperatures affecting southern Europe are due to an anticyclone carrying a hot air mass from further south.

It said that the lack of cloud cover also led to increased temperatures.Just last week, Spain and other parts of Europe were hit by bitterly cold weather and rainstorms, which in turn followed freezing temperatures and snowfall in many parts of Spain.

...

On Thursday, the interior eastern town of Chelva recorded a temperature of 29.6 degrees Celsius (85 Fahrenheit), he said.Minimum and maximum temperatures are averaging 5-10 degrees Celsius (9-18 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal, the agency says.

The weather has led to busy beaches from southwestern Cadíz to northeastern Barcelona, scenes normally associated with summer months.

...

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/spain-heatwave-record-temperatures-weather-b2485566.html

[John_the_Younger]

Tamino has some comments about 2023's heatwaves in his WordPress blog.

For example:

... The city of Phoenix has always been hot in July, but this year they reached 110°F for 31 days in a row! Meanwhile, the whole state of Arizona had a July which didn’t just break the record, it obliterated it.

For those who use a sane temperature scale, 110°F equals 43⅓°C.
For those who use a sane calendar, well, there isn't a sane calendar; sorry.

[vox_mundi]

Meltwater In the North Atlantic Can Lead to European Summer Heat Waves, Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-meltwater-north-atlantic-european-summer.html



Scientists from the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) have discovered that increased meltwater in the North Atlantic can trigger a chain of events leading to hotter and drier European summers.

The paper, which is published in the open access journal Weather and Climate Dynamics, suggests that European summer weather is predictable months to years in advance, due to higher levels of freshwater in the North Atlantic during the preceding winter.

Discussing the implications, lead author Marilena Oltmanns, Research Scientist at the National Oceanography Centre, said, "While the UK and northern Europe experienced unusually cool and wet weather in Summer 2023, Greenland experienced an unusually warm summer, leading to increased freshwater input into the North Atlantic."

"Based on the identified chain of events, we expect that the ocean-atmosphere conditions will be favorable for an unusually warm and dry summer over southern Europe this year."

"Depending on the pathway of the freshwater in the North Atlantic, we are also expecting a warm and dry summer in northern[/I[ Europe within the next five years. We will be able to estimate the exact year of the warm and dry summer in northern Europe more closely in the winter before it occurs."

Marilena Oltmanns et al, European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years, Weather and Climate Dynamics (2024)
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/

[vox_mundi]

Vietnam's 'Rice Bowl' Cracks In Monster Heat Wave
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-vietnam-rice-bowl-monster.html

Southern Vietnam, including business hub Ho Chi Minh City and its "rice bowl" Mekong Delta region, suffered an unusually long heat wave in February, weather officials said Wednesday.

Several areas of the delta are also suffering drought and farmers are struggling to transport their crops due to low water levels in the region's canals.

The intense period of heat began on February 9, meteorologists told AFP, with temperatures reaching up to 38 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit)—an "abnormal" high for February in southern Vietnam, which usually sees hot weather peak at around 39C (102F) in April or May.

Le Dinh Quyet, chief forecaster at the Southern Meteorological and Hydrological Administration, said the El Niño weather phenomenon and the general impact of global climate change were contributing to the unusually long dry spell, which is still going on.

More than 80 canals have dried up in the Tran Van Thoi district of Ca Mau province, state-controlled news site VNExpress reported.

According to local authorities, agricultural production is entirely reliant on rainwater and, given its scarcity this year, farmers were forced to pump water from waterways into their fields.

That caused a large height difference between the riverside road surface and the water level below, leading to subsidence and landslides, local authorities said, according to VNExpress.

[vox_mundi]

The Heat Index—How Hot It Feels—Is Rising Faster Than Temperature: Study
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-index-hot-faster-temperature.html

Texans have long endured scorching summer temperatures, so a global warming increase of about 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 Celsius) might not sound like much to worry about.

But a new study concludes that the heat index—essentially how hot it really feels—has increased much faster in Texas than has the measured temperature: about three times faster.

That means that on some extreme days, what the temperature feels like is between 8 and 11 F (5 to 6 C) hotter than it would be without climate change.

The study, using Texas data from June, July, and August of 2023, highlights a problem with communicating the dangers of rising temperatures to the public. The temperature alone does not accurately reflect the heat stress people feel.

Even the heat index itself, which takes into account the relative humidity and thus the capacity to cool off by sweating, gives a conservative estimate of heat stress, according to study author David Romps, a professor of earth and planetary science at the University of California, Berkeley

In 2022, Romps co-authored a paper pointing out that the way most government agencies calculate the heat index is inaccurate when dealing with the temperature and humidity extremes we're seeing today. This leads people to underestimate their chances of suffering hyperthermia on the hottest days and their chances of dying.

Texas is not an outlier. Last week, Arizona's most populous county, covering most of Phoenix, reported that heat-associated deaths last year were 50% higher than in 2022, rising from 425 in 2022 to 645 in 2023. Two-thirds of Maricopa County's heat-related deaths in 2023 were of people 50 years or older, and 71% occurred on days when the National Weather Service had issued an excessive heat warning, according to the Associated Press.

The reason that it feels much hotter than you'd expect from the increase in ambient temperature alone is that global warming is affecting the interplay between humidity and temperature, he said. In the past, relative humidity typically dropped when the temperature increased, allowing the body to sweat more and thus feel more comfortable.

However, with climate change, the relative humidity remains about constant as the temperature increases, which reduces the effectiveness of sweating to cool the body.

The corrected heat index created by UC Berkeley researchers fixes problems encountered at humidities and temperatures that the originator of the index thought would be rarely reached and also where the model broke down. (Graphic by David Romps and Yi-Chuan Lu, UC Berkeley)



... Over the decades, the nation's major weather forecaster, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, has dealt with the lack of calculated values for high heat and humidity by extrapolating from the known values. Romps and Lu found, however, that the commonly used extrapolation falls far short when conditions of temperature and humidity are extreme.

... "I picked Texas because I had seen some high heat index values there that made me think, OK, this is a state that this summer is probably experiencing combinations of heat and humidity that are not being captured properly by NOAA's approximation to the heat index," he said.

He found that, while temperatures peaked at various places and times around the state last summer, one place, Houston's Ellington Airport, stood out. On July 23, 2023, he calculated that the heat index was 75 C, or 167 F. Global warming accounted for 12 F (6 C) of that heat index, he said.

...  "We think if you kept your skin wet and you were exposed to 167 degrees, even though we're approaching something like a setting on the oven, you'd still be alive. Definitely not happy. But alive."

"If humanity goes ahead and burns the fossil fuel available to it, then it is conceivable that half of Earth's population would be exposed to unavoidably hyperthermic conditions, even for young, healthy adults," Romps said. "People who aren't young and healthy would be suffering even more, as would people who are laboring or are out in the sun—all of them would be suffering potentially life-threatening levels of heat stress."

David M Romps, Heat index extremes increasing several times faster than the air temperature, Environmental Research Letters (2024)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3144

[vox_mundi]

Dehydration Is Rampant Among Florida Farm Workers, New Study Shows
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-03-dehydration-rampant-florida-farm-workers.html

Nearly all farm workers who participated in a recent study in Florida were dehydrated at the end of their shifts, and more than half were still dehydrated the following morning

The study, a partnership between the University of Illinois Chicago and the Farmworker Association of Florida, used urine samples collected first thing in the morning, at lunch, and at the end of a shift to assess the risk of dehydration over five days in May 2021 and May 2022 at a vegetable farm in southern Florida.

A total of 111 workers, most of them men from Mexico and Guatemala, participated in the study, which is published in the journal Environmental Research.

By one measure, almost all the samples taken at the end of a shift—97%—showed probable dehydration. Of samples taken the following morning, 62% showed probable dehydration.

That means for many, "there was no recovery," said lead author Chibuzor Abasilim, a post-doctoral scholar in the Division of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences at UIC's School of Public Health. Indeed, as the work week progressed, the morning samples showed increasingly higher levels of dehydration.

"It was getting worse every day. It's pervasive, progressive dehydration," said co-author Lee Friedman, research professor in the School of Public Health. Acute dehydration can cause fatigue, muscle cramps and dizziness. Chronic dehydration can lead to kidney dysfunction.

The researchers ran other analyses of the samples using more conservative measures of dehydration that are approved by the NCAA and U.S. military. Even using these measures, the researchers still found high rates of dehydration in end-of-shift samples, at 83% using the NCAA measure and 55% using the U.S. military measure.

Farmworkers are particularly vulnerable to dehydration. They are generally paid based on the amount of crops they pick, so there is an incentive to work longer and faster, the researchers said. This means taking a break to drink water or to urinate can cost them money. They are also often treated as expendable and know they can be replaced if they complain or don't work fast enough, the researchers said.

Chibuzor Abasilim et al, Risk factors associated with indicators of dehydration among migrant farmworkers, Environmental Research (2024).
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935124005371?via%3Dihub

[kassy]

Dangerous humid heat in southern West Africa about 4°C hotter due to climate change

The southern coastal zone of Western Africa – also called the Guinea zone – experienced abnormal early season heat in February 2024. A combination of high temperatures and relatively humid air resulted in area average Heat Index values of about 50°C, which is classified to be in the ‘danger’ level that is associated with a high risk of heat cramps and heat exhaustion. Locally, values even entered the level of ‘extreme danger’ that is associated
with high risk of heat stroke, with values up to 60°C (fig. 1).

Humid heatwaves are known to be particularly dangerous. While meteorological organisations in Ghana and Nigeria issued warnings, few heat-related impacts were reported by the media and government organisations across the Guinea zone. In February, West Africa was hit by an unusually intense early season heatwave, with temperatures not normally seen until March or April. The most severe heat occurred from February 11-15 with temperatures above 40°C. In Nigeria, doctors reported an increase in patients presenting for heat-related illness, people complained of poor sleep due to hot nights and the national meteorological agency issued several warnings about the heat. In Ghana, the national meteorological agency also warned people to prepare for dangerous temperatures. The heat occurred during the finals of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) football tournament in Côte d’Ivoire. Due to the hot and humid conditions, additional ‘cooling breaks’ were taken during the matches so players could rehydrate.

...

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/dangerous-humid-heat-in-southern-west-africa-about-4c-hotter-due-to-climate-change/

[kassy]

Greece hit again by high temperatures, Saharan dust


Thick clouds of dust blown in from the Sahara once again covered Greek skies Monday, especially Athens and Thessalonika, with temperatures rising as high as 31°C (88°F).

The dust storms, which had already affected Greece last week as well as regions such as Switzerland and Southern France, made breathing difficult for many people.

A high of 26°C was forecast in the capital Athens Monday, which public television station ERT described as conditions more akin to May.

Thermometers in the south of the Peleponnese and on the island of Euboea near Athens are expected to hit 31°C Monday.

...

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-greece-high-temperatures-saharan.html

[vox_mundi]

Hundreds of Philippine Schools Suspend Classes Over Heat Danger
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-hundreds-philippine-schools-classes-danger.html

Primary and secondary schools in Quezon, the most populous part of the city, were ordered to suspend in-person classes on Tuesday due to dangerous levels of heat, education officials said.

The heat-index was expected to reach the "danger" level of 42 degrees Celsius in Manila on Tuesday and 43°C on Wednesday, with similar levels in a dozen other areas of the country, the state weather forecaster said.

The country's heat index measures what a temperature feels like, taking into account humidity.

The actual highest temperature forecast for the metropolis on Tuesday was 34°C.

A heat index of 42-51C can cause heat cramps and heat exhaustion, with heat stroke "probable with continued exposure", the weather forecaster said in an advisory.

Heat cramps and heat exhaustion are also possible at 33-41C, according to the forecaster.

Local officials in several areas of the southern island of Mindanao also suspended in-person classes or shortened school hours over two weeks, regional education department spokeswoman Rea Halique told AFP.

Cotabato city experienced the highest heat index in Mindanao, reaching 42°C on Monday and Tuesday, the state forecaster reported.

[kassy]

Heat Waves Are Moving Slower and Staying Longer, Study Finds


When heat waves swept across large parts of the planet last summer, in many places the oppressive temperatures loitered for days or weeks at a time. As climate change warms the planet, heat waves are increasingly moving sluggishly and lasting longer, according to a study published Friday.

Each decade between 1979 and 2020, the rate at which heat waves travel, pushed along by air circulation, slowed by about 5 miles per day, the study found. Heat waves also now last about four days longer on average.

“This really has strong impacts on public health,” said Wei Zhang, a climate scientist at Utah State University and one of the authors of the study, which appeared in the journal Science Advances.

...

Zhang and his colleagues analyzed temperatures around the world between 1979 and 2020. They defined heat waves as contiguous areas reaching a total of 1 million square kilometers (247 million acres) or more, where temperatures rose to at least the 95th percentile of the local historical maximum temperature (basically, enormous blobs of unusually hot air). The heat waves also had to last for at least three days. The researchers then measured how far these giant air masses moved over time to calculate their speed.

Over all the years they studied, heat waves slowed down by about 8 kilometers (or nearly 5 miles) per day each decade.

The average life span of heat waves has also stretched out: From 2016-20, they persisted for an average of 12 days, compared with eight days from 1979 to 1983. These longer-lived heat waves are also traveling farther, increasing the distance they travel by about 226 kilometers per decade.

The researchers also found that heat waves are becoming more frequent, to an average of 98 per year between 2016 and 2020, from 75 per year between 1979 and 1983.

There are some regional differences. Heat waves are lasting longer particularly in Eurasia and North America. And they are traveling farther particularly in South America.

...

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/heat-waves-moving-slower-staying-143544626.html

The paper:

Anthropogenic forcing has increased the risk of longer-traveling and slower-moving large contiguous heatwaves

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl1598

[Rodius]

Heat Waves Are Moving Slower and Staying Longer, Study Finds


When heat waves swept across large parts of the planet last summer, in many places the oppressive temperatures loitered for days or weeks at a time. As climate change warms the planet, heat waves are increasingly moving sluggishly and lasting longer, according to a study published Friday.

Each decade between 1979 and 2020, the rate at which heat waves travel, pushed along by air circulation, slowed by about 5 miles per day, the study found. Heat waves also now last about four days longer on average.

“This really has strong impacts on public health,” said Wei Zhang, a climate scientist at Utah State University and one of the authors of the study, which appeared in the journal Science Advances.

...

Zhang and his colleagues analyzed temperatures around the world between 1979 and 2020. They defined heat waves as contiguous areas reaching a total of 1 million square kilometers (247 million acres) or more, where temperatures rose to at least the 95th percentile of the local historical maximum temperature (basically, enormous blobs of unusually hot air). The heat waves also had to last for at least three days. The researchers then measured how far these giant air masses moved over time to calculate their speed.

Over all the years they studied, heat waves slowed down by about 8 kilometers (or nearly 5 miles) per day each decade.

The average life span of heat waves has also stretched out: From 2016-20, they persisted for an average of 12 days, compared with eight days from 1979 to 1983. These longer-lived heat waves are also traveling farther, increasing the distance they travel by about 226 kilometers per decade.

The researchers also found that heat waves are becoming more frequent, to an average of 98 per year between 2016 and 2020, from 75 per year between 1979 and 1983.

There are some regional differences. Heat waves are lasting longer particularly in Eurasia and North America. And they are traveling farther particularly in South America.

...

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/heat-waves-moving-slower-staying-143544626.html

The paper:

Anthropogenic forcing has increased the risk of longer-traveling and slower-moving large contiguous heatwaves

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl1598

The criteria seems odd to me.

Why ignore heatwaves under 3 days?
If you remove the short heatwaves, how can you know if there are more shorter heatwaves?

To me, that will bias the results because they don't know if there are more shorter heatwaves. I am probably wrong about this but it seems correct to me

[kiwichick16]

@ rodius  ....not sure.....but i think 3 days is the standard time period ......otherwise its just a hot day ....or a couple of hot days .......

[kassy]

They are looking at big masses of dry air moving around so they do not need data for shorter heat waves.

[Rodius]

True... but hot days matter.
Are there more of them?

In saying that, if they are tracking large regions of heat and how fast they are moving, then that would make much more sense. I think I understand why now... thanks

[vox_mundi]

Schools Close and Crops Wither as ‘Historic’ Heatwave Hits South-East Asia
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/04/schools-close-and-crops-wither-as-historic-heatwave-hits-south-east-asia

Thousands of schools in the Philippines have stopped in-person classes due to unbearable heat. In Indonesia, prolonged dry weather has caused rice prices to soar. In Thailand’s waters, temperatures are so high that scientists fear coral could be destroyed.

A “historic heatwave” is being experienced across south-east Asia, according to Maximiliano Herrera, a climatologist and weather historian. In updates posted on X, he said heat that was unprecedented for early April had been recorded at monitoring stations across the region this week, including in Minbu, in central Myanmar, where 44C was recorded – the first time in south-east Asia’s climatic history that such high temperatures had been reached so early in the month. In Hat Yai, in Thailand’s far south, 40.2 C was reached, an all-time record, while Yên Châu in north-west Vietnam hit 40.6C, unprecedented for this time of year.

[kassy]

True... but hot days matter.
Are there more of them?

In saying that, if they are tracking large regions of heat and how fast they are moving, then that would make much more sense. I think I understand why now... thanks

They are looking at large scale processes

The average life span of heat waves has also stretched out: From 2016-20, they persisted for an average of 12 days, compared with eight days from 1979 to 1983. These longer-lived heat waves are also traveling farther, increasing the distance they travel by about 226 kilometers per decade.

The researchers also found that heat waves are becoming more frequent, to an average of 98 per year between 2016 and 2020, from 75 per year between 1979 and 1983.

So hot days are increasing. If you get a heatwave lasting 3 days or more it will be longer.

The 1 or 2 day events might be storms blowing by. The longer heat waves are more important then single day events.

[morganism]

Extreme terrestrial heat in 2023

Multiple relentless heatwaves occurred in 2023, with much of the world experiencing at least 20 more heatwave days than the 1991–2020 average. Prominent and record-breaking events included exceptional wintertime and spring heat in South America, large heatwaves over Europe, Africa and Asia, and a prolonged event over south-eastern USA and Central America.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00536-y


Global Boiling   (a rant)

https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/global-boiling/

[kassy]

Spain hit temperatures in the 30-33C range which are summer values or well they used to be.

https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6308115/opnieuw-abnormaal-zomerse-temperaturen-gemeten-in-spanje.html

[Stephan]

Germany had one station in its southwestern corner to hit 30.1°C yesterday. It is an all-time record for the first ten days of April. The previous record, set some years ago was 27.7°C in the same area.

[Rodius]

Looks like Europe is about to get an Australian summer.

[vox_mundi]

Japan's Sapporo sees earliest 25C day since records began
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-japan-sapporo-earliest-25c-day.html

Temperatures in Japan's northern city of Sapporo—famous for skiing—on Monday passed 25 degrees Celsius at the earliest point of any year on record, a weather agency official said.

"The temperature in Sapporo hit 26 degrees... and is still rising," Shuichi Yoshida, an official at the regional headquarters of the Japan Meteorological Agency, told AFP in the early afternoon.

It is the earliest that temperatures in the city have passed 25 degrees Celsius (77 Fahrenheit), which the JMA classifies as a "summer's day", since records began there in 1877.

On average between 1991 and 2020, the highest temperature in Sapporo on April 15 was 11.5 degrees Celsius, the JMA says.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Record heat rots cocoa beans threatening Ivory Coast agriculture
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-cocoa-beans-threatening-ivory-coast.html

... Last year's heavy rains have given way to high temperatures, particularly from January to March, which have slashed the cocoa crop, which accounts for nearly 45 percent of global production.

The thermometer climbed to a record 41 degrees Celsius (106 Fahrenheit) at Dimbrokro in central Ivory Coast in February, said Daouda Konate, head of the national weather agency Sodexam.

Normal temperatures for that time of year would be 35C-36C (95-97F), he added.

In Mali, the town of Kayes, in the southwest, suffocated under 48.5C (119F) in early April.

Long-lasting and intense periods of heat stress plants, said agronomist Siaka Kone, head of the higher school of agronomy in the Ivorian capital Yamoussoukro.

"The quantities of water available will not be sufficient for proper growth and there will be no blossom. Without flowers ... no fruit," he said.

According to government forecasts, climate change could lead to annual GDP losses of 3-4.5 percent up to 2030.

Farmers "are not prepared for heat waves", which are becoming repetitive, said Nahounou Pierre Lautti Daleba.

[Reallybigbunny]

This poorly written article highlights record temperatures in Mali that reportedly led to full morgues turning away bodies this month.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/18/lethal-heatwave-in-sahel-worsened-by-fossil-fuel-burning-study-finds

[kiwichick16]

@ really big bunny    ......which parts are poorly written ?

[kassy]

Just in case here is the same from another source. :

Climate change: Deadly African heatwave 'impossible' without warming

A deadly heatwave in West Africa and the Sahel was "impossible" without human-induced climate change, scientists say.

Temperatures soared above 48C in Mali last month with one hospital linking hundreds of deaths to the extreme heat.

Researchers say human activities like burning fossil fuels made temperatures up to 1.4C hotter than normal.

...

A number of countries in the Sahel region and across West Africa were hit by a strong heatwave that struck at the end of March and lasted into early April.

The heat was most strongly felt in the southern regions of Mali and Burkina Faso.

In Bamako, the capital of Mali, the Gabriel Toure Hospital said it recorded 102 deaths in the first days of April.

Around half the people who died were over 60 years of age, and the hospital said that heat played a role in many of these casualties.

Researchers believe that global climate change had a key role in this five-day heatwave.

A new analysis from scientists involved with the World Weather Attribution group suggests the high day time and night time temperatures would not have been possible without the world's long term use of coal, oil and gas as well as other activities such as deforestation.

According to the study, climate change meant temperatures were up to 1.5C warmer than normal in Mali and Burkina Faso, and made the night even hotter at 2C above the average. Across the region as a whole the five-day temperature was increased by 1.4C.

"For some, a heatwave being 1.4 or 1.5C hotter because of climate change might not sound like a big increase," said Kiswendsida Guigma, a climate scientist at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in Burkina Faso.

While intense heatwaves are still relatively rare in this region, researchers expect them to become more common as the climate warms.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68835575

[vox_mundi]

Extreme Heat Scorches Southeast Asia, Bringing School Closures and Warnings
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-extreme-southeast-asia-school-closures.html

Extreme heat scorched parts of South and Southeast Asia Wednesday, prompting schools across the Philippines to suspend classes, heat warnings in the Thai capital and worshippers in Bangladesh to pray for rain.

The high temperatures were recorded just a day after the United Nations said Asia was the region that suffered the most disasters from climate and weather hazards in 2023, with floods and storms the chief causes of casualties and economic losses.

"It's so hot you can't breathe," said Erlin Tumaron, 60, who works at a Philippine seaside resort in Cavite province, south of Manila, where the heat index reached 47 degrees Celsius (117 degrees Fahrenheit) on Tuesday.

March, April and May are typically the hottest and driest months in the archipelago but conditions this year have been exacerbated by the El Niño weather phenomenon. Around half the country's provinces are officially in drought.

The northern municipality of Aparri endured a heat index of 48C on Tuesday, the highest in the country, and was expected to hit 45C on Wednesday. In Dagupan city, north of Manila, the heat index there reached 47C on Tuesday.

The heat index was expected to reach the "danger" level of 42C (108F) or higher in at least 30 cities and municipalities on Wednesday, the state weather forecaster said.

The heat index measures what a temperature feels like, taking into account humidity.

... The WMO's State of the Climate in Asia 2023 report found Asia was warming faster than the global average, with temperatures last year nearly two degrees Celsius above the 1961 to 1990 average.

Report: https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-climate-asia-2023

"Many countries in the region experienced their hottest year on record in 2023, along with a barrage of extreme conditions, from droughts and heat waves to floods and storms," said WMO chief Celeste Saulo, who described the report as "sobering".

... In Bangladesh, thousands gathered in Dhaka to pray for rain as an extreme heat wave forced authorities to shut schools around the country.

Temperatures across Bangladesh have reached more than 42C (108F) in the past week.

Bangladesh's weather bureau said average maximum temperatures in the capital over the past week have been 4-5C (7.2-9F) higher than the 30-year average for the same period.

"Praying for rains is a tradition of our prophet. We repented for our sins and prayed for his blessings for rains," said Muhammad Abu Yusuf, an Islamic cleric who led a morning prayer service for 1,000 people in central Dhaka.

"Life has become unbearable due to lack of rains," he told AFP. "Poor people are suffering immensely."

... The Indian Meteorological Department said in a news release severe heat wave conditions were likely in the eastern and southern states of Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim and Karnataka over the next five days.

Thai authorities in Bangkok issued an extreme heat warning and urged people to stay indoors for their own safety.

Temperatures were forecast to hit 39C (102F) in the sprawling Thai capital, while the heat index rose above 52C (126F).

Thailand sweltered through a heat wave this week that pushed the mercury in the northern province of Lampang close to a national record of 44.6C (112.3F) on Monday.

---------------------------------------------------------------

A Long, Hot U.S. Summer Is Looming, Forecasters Say
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/23/summer-2024-heat-weather



A recently released NOAA climate outlook for the June through August meteorological summer shows only one whole state — North Dakota — in the Lower 48 with equal chances of below-average, average or above-average temperatures.

    Everywhere else in the region is projected to be hotter than average, but with varying odds.

    The chances for hotter-than-average conditions are highest in the Northeast, and across a vast swath of land from Texas to the Rockies into the Pacific Northwest.

    The Plains and West are projected to see below-average rainfall, which could lead to higher wildfire risks, while the East stays soggy.

One wild card this summer will be exactly where persistent areas of high pressure, also known as heat domes, set up. That will determine the areas that see some of the hottest conditions.

    Some research suggests there may be a tendency for that to occur across the Central states and Midwest.



https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-expands-availability-of-new-heat-forecast-tool-ahead-of-summer

[vox_mundi]

Mass Fish Die-Off In Vietnam As Heat Wave Roasts Southeast Asia
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-mass-fish-die-vietnam-roasts.html



Hundreds of thousands of fish have died in a reservoir in southern Vietnam's Dong Nai province, with locals and media reports suggesting a brutal heat wave and the lake's management are to blame.

According to media reports, the area has seen no rain for weeks, and the water in the reservoir is too low for the creatures to survive.

The reservoir is the water source for crops in Trang Bom and Vinh Cuu districts of Dong Nai province.

... The soaring temperatures are also impacting neighboring Cambodia, where the high could reach 43 on the mercury.

On Wednesday Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet ordered schools to consider closing to protect teachers and students from the heat, and put officials on stand-by in case of water shortages.

... Meanwhile, in Thailand, electricity usage surged to new records on Tuesday as temperatures in northeastern province Udon Thani broke 44C.

---------------------------------------------------------------

April Temperatures In Bangladesh Hottest On Record
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-april-temperatures-bangladesh-hottest.html

Bangladesh's weather bureau said Wednesday that last month was the hottest April on record, with the South Asian nation and much of the region still enduring a suffocating heat wave. ... Last month was the hottest April in Bangladesh since records began in 1948

... Weather stations around Bangladesh this year recorded average daily maximum temperatures between two and eight degrees hotter than the 33.2-degree-Celsius (91.8-degree-Fahrenheit) average daily high for April over a 30-year period to 2010, he added.

Health department spokesman Selim Raihan told AFP the government had confirmed at least 11 heatstroke-related deaths in the past 10 days.

Rains are expected to bring some relief to Bangladesh from Thursday after a week of sweltering temperatures, with Dhaka recording several days over 40C.

[kassy]

Health warning issued as heatwave grips South and Southeast Asia

...

Cambodia faces its hottest temperature in 170 years, according to meteorologists - as high as 43C (109F).

Bangkok in Thailand has reached 40C (104 F), but the heat index is said to have topped 50 C (122 F) due to the heat being trapped among the mass of buildings.

...

Thirty people in Thailand have died from heatstroke in the past month, according to data from the country's health ministry.

People are being advised to avoid outdoor activities and to stay hydrated.

Several towns in Myanmar were included on lists of the hottest spots globally last month, with temperatures reaching 48.2C (118F) in at least one case.

Parts of eastern India also experienced their hottest April on record.

...

https://news.sky.com/story/health-warning-issued-as-heatwave-grips-south-and-southeast-asia-13128692

[kassy]

In South Asia, heat stress kills without a heatwave

Sweltering days found to increase mortality in three cities across India


The India Meteorological Department (IMD) typically issues heatwave warnings if the maximum temperature of a weather station reaches at least 40C in the plains and at least 30C in hilly regions, with a departure of 4.5-6.4C from the normal maximum temperature.

But a new study shows that even on days where there is no official heatwave warning, the threat from heat remains. “Heat stress is usually 1−4C higher on heatwave days than on non-heatwave days,” the study titled ‘Excess Mortality Risk Due to Heat Stress in Different Climatic Zones of India’ found. “However, the [heat] stress on non-heatwave days remains considerable and cannot be neglected,” says the research conducted by multiple authors affiliated with research institutes and colleges across the India, as well as one from Germany.

The authors showed the association of a newly formulated India heat index (IHI) with daily all-cause mortality in the three cities which were chosen for their differences. Delhi is semi-arid, Varanasi is humid and subtropical and Chennai tropical wet and dry. The researchers used 42 years (1979−2020) of meteorological data  to examine vulnerability to heat stress in India and developed climate-zone specific and percentile-based human comfort class thresholds. Values exceeding the 90th percentile were classified as ‘sweltering’, while those below the 25th percentile were ‘comfortable’.

Heat and death
The study found that during ‘sweltering’ days, all-cause mortality risk was enhanced by 8.1% in Varanasi, 5.9% in Delhi and 8.0% in Chennai, relative to ‘comfortable’ days. Across four age groups, the impact was more severe in Varanasi, with a 3.2-7.5% increase in mortality risk for a unit rise in the IHI, compared to Delhi (2.6−4.2% higher risk) and Chennai (0.9−5.7% higher risk). The authors also observed a 3−6 day lag between heat stress and mortality in these cities.

...

https://dialogue.earth/en/climate/in-south-asia-heat-stress-kills-without-a-heatwave/

[Freegrass]

India look pretty scary right now. How can people still survive there? 

[Freegrass]

This is insane.

[kassy]

About 0,3C+ warmer. That is impressive.

[kassy]

Heatwave grips India’s north as mercury in Delhi touches 47C


A heatwave gripped parts of northern India as tempertures in capital Delhi touched 47C amid a severe weather alert.

“Severe heatwave conditions are very likely in some parts of west Rajasthan during 17-20 May and in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi during 18-20 May,” announced the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Parts of New Delhi recorded temperatures up to 47.1C on Friday, while northern states like Haryana and Punjab are also expected to see “severe heatwave conditions”.

Rajasthan recorded a maximum temperature of 46C on Thursday as the heatwave days in April were the highest in 15 and nine years in the eastern states of West Bengal and Odisha respectively, according to IMD data.

The heatwave comes at the same time as India’s 6-week ongoing national elections, which has experts concerned as citizens wait in long lines to cast their votes.

...

Two people died from suspected heat stroke in the southern state of Kerala in April, where temperatures soared to 41.9C, nearly 5.5C above normal.

Since the beginning of April, dozens of countries in Asia from India to the Philippines have seen record-high temperatures leading to school closures and the triggering of urgent health warnings across the region.

A study conducted by scientists from World Weather Attribution (WWA), has found that this year’s heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” in the Philippines and a lot less extreme in South and West Asia without the climate crisis caused by burning oil, coal and gas.

The conditions for a heatwave are met in India when the maximum temperature of a weather station touches 40C in the plains, 37C in coastal areas, and 30C in hilly regions, or the departure from normal is at least 4.5 degrees. A severe heatwave is declared if the temperature is at least 6.4 degrees above normal.

April to June are usually the hottest months in most of India, but the country has seen more intense temperatures over the past decade, which leads to severe water shortages as well.

The Met department has warned that India could see more heatwave days between April and June this year than it normally does.

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/north-india-severe-heat-wave-b2547271.html

[kassy]

Study tallies heatwave deaths over recent decades

More than 150,000 people per year are estimated to have died from heatwaves around the globe and the new study reveals regional disparities in heatwave deaths


Between 1990 and 2019, more than 150,000 deaths around the globe were associated with heatwaves each year, according to a new study published May 14 in PLOS Medicine by Yuming Guo of Monash University, Australia, and colleagues.

Heatwaves, periods of extremely high ambient temperature that last for a few days, can impose overwhelming thermal stress on the human body.

Studies have previously quantified the effect of individual heatwaves on excess deaths in local areas, but have not compared these statistics around the globe over such a prolonged period.

In the new study, researchers used data from the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network that included daily deaths and temperatures from 750 locations across 43 countries.

With the MCC data, the researchers estimated excess heatwave deaths around the world spanning 1990 to 2019 and mapped the variance in these deaths across continents.

During the warm seasons from 1990 to 2019, heatwave-related excess deaths accounted for 153,078 deaths per year, a total of 236 deaths per ten million residents or 1% of global deaths.

While Asia had the highest number of estimated deaths, Europe had the highest population-adjusted rate, at 655 deaths per ten million residents.

A substantial burden of estimated deaths was seen in southern and eastern Europe as well as the area between Northern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Southern Asia.

At the national level, Greece, Malta, and Italy had the highest excess death ratios.

Overall, the largest estimated rates of heatwaves deaths were seen in areas with dry climates and lower-middle incomes.

Understanding the regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality is key to planning local adaptation and risk management towards climate change.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240514142735.htm

[opensheart]

South Florida last week:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/key-west-shatters-heat-index-200959214.html

And this week:
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/05/15/todays-the-hottest-day-of-the-week-what-to-expect-from-feels-like-temps-above-100-degrees/

[vox_mundi]

India Shuts Schools as Temperatures Soar
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-india-schools-temperatures-soar.html

Indian authorities in the capital have ordered schools shut early for the summer holiday, after temperatures hit 47.4 degrees Celsius (117 degrees Fahrenheit) with Delhi gripped by a "severe heat wave".

India's weather bureau has warned of "severe heat wave conditions" this week, with the mercury reaching the sizzling peak of 47.4 degrees Celsius in Delhi's Najafgarh suburb on Monday, the hottest temperature countrywide.

Authorities in other states—including Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan—have also ordered schools close, Indian Today reported.

The next round of voting in India's six-week-long election takes place on Saturday, including in Delhi.

Turnout in voting has dipped, with analysts suggesting the hotter-than-average weather is a factor—as well as the widespread expectation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will easily win a third term.

India's election commission has formed a task force to review the impact of heat waves and humidity before each round of voting.

At the same time, India's southern states including Tamil Nadu and Kerala have been lashed by heavy rains over the past few days.

Severe storms also hit parts of the country last week, including in the financial capital Mumbai, where strong winds flattened a giant billboard that killed 16 people and left dozens more trapped.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Extreme Heat Waves In South and Southeast Asia Are Sign of Things to Come
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-extreme-south-southeast-asia.html



Since April 2024, wide areas of south and southeast Asia, from Pakistan to the Philippines, have experienced prolonged extreme heat. Covering some of the most densely populated regions in the world, the series of heat waves has affected everything from human health and well-being to the economy and education.

Once the temperature goes above 38°C, it exceeds the core human body temperature (about 37°C) and the chance of heat exhaustion and even heatstroke increases dramatically. This is compounded by increasing humidity in the region which puts additional heat stress on the human body, as sweat is not able to evaporate as effectively (the primary mechanism for cooling the human body).

That is why extreme heat in a tropical country can be less pleasant and more dangerous than the same temperature in a desert.



This is particularly dangerous for the many cities in south and southeast Asia being hit by the current series of heat waves, which over the past 85 years have already experienced long-term increase in the number of days in April with such dangerously high temperatures.

[vox_mundi]

Monkeys ‘Falling Out of Trees Like Apples’ In Mexico Amid Brutal Heatwave
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/21/monkeys-mexico-heatwave

It’s so hot in Mexico that howler monkeys are falling dead from the trees.

At least 83 of the midsize primates, who are known for their roaring vocal calls, were found dead in the Gulf coast state of Tabasco. Others were rescued by residents, including five that were rushed to a local veterinarian who battled to save them.

“They arrived in critical condition, with dehydration and fever,” said Dr Sergio Valenzuela. “They were as limp as rags. It was heatstroke.”

Pozo attributes the deaths to a “synergy” of factors, including high heat, drought, forest fires and logging that deprives the monkeys of water, shade and the fruit they eat.

“This is a sentinel species,” Pozo said, referring to the canary-in-a-coalmine effect where one species can say a lot about an ecosystem.

.... By 9 May at least nine cities in Mexico had set temperature records, with Ciudad Victoria, in the border state of Tamaulipas, clocking a broiling 117F (47C).

With below-average rainfall throughout almost all the country so far this year, lakes and dams are drying up, water supplies are running out and authorities have had to truck in water for everything from hospitals to firefighting teams. Low levels at hydroelectric dams have contributed to power blackouts in some parts of the country.

[Freegrass]

Monkeys ‘Falling Out of Trees Like Apples’ In Mexico Amid Brutal Heatwave
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/21/monkeys-mexico-heatwave

[kassy]

Doctors treat hundreds of victims of heatstroke in Pakistan after heat wave hits the country


Doctors treated hundreds of victims of heatstroke at hospitals across Pakistan on Thursday after an intense heat wave sent temperatures above normal levels due to climate change, officials said.

Temperatures soared as high as 49 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit) the previous day in Mohenjo Daro. The city, known for its archaeological sites, is in southern Sindh province, which was badly hit by climate-induced monsoon rains and devastating floods in 2022. The heat wave is forecast to continue for at least a week.

Authorities have urged people to stay indoors, hydrate and avoid unnecessary travel. But laborers say they don't have a choice because they need to work to feed their families.

"Pakistan is the fifth most vulnerable country to the impact of climate change. We have witnessed above normal rains, floods," Rubina Khursheed Alam, the prime minister's coordinator on climate, said at a news conference in the capital, Islamabad.

...

This month, temperatures are likely to soar to 55 C (131 F), weather forecasters said.

...

Doctors say they treated hundreds of patients in the eastern city of Lahore, while scores of people were brought to hospitals in Hyderabad, Larkana and Jacobabad districts in the southern Sindh province.

"The situation has been getting worse since yesterday, when people affected by heat started coming to hospitals in the Punjab province," said Ghulam Farid, a senior health official. Pakistan has set up emergency response centers at hospitals to treat patients affected by the heat.

...

This year, Pakistan recorded its wettest April since 1961, with more than double the usual monthly rainfall. Last month's heavy rains killed scores of people while destroyed property and farmland.

Daytime temperatures are soaring 8 degrees Celsius (46 degrees Fahrenheit) above May's temperatures, raising fears of flooding in the northwest because of glacial melting.

The 2022 floods caused extensive damage in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces, as 1,739 people were killed across the country.

Currently, Pakistan's southwest and northwestern areas are also experiencing the heat wave.

Authorities have shut schools for a week in Punjab. In the city of Lahore people were seen swimming in the roadside canals. Pakistan says despite contributing less than 1% to carbon emissions, it is bearing the brunt of global climate disasters.

...

https://phys.org/news/2024-05-doctors-hundreds-victims-heatstroke-pakistan.html

Those predicted temperatures are crazy. 

[morganism]

(i didn't know the Mexico heat dome was headed for the US. That is gonna be a lot more humid by the time it gets there...)

What to know about the brutal heat dome shifting from Mexico into the U.S.

Mexico City has set all-time high temperature records on multiple days.

A prolonged and deadly heat wave in Mexico, one of the most extreme the country has faced, shows little sign of easing and is oozing into the United States, where it has already set records and fueled violent storms.

The heat has been breaking records in Mexico since early May. Many Mexican states have observed their highest temperatures on record, while more than 80 percent of the country is also enduring drought. Mexico City has set all-time record highs on multiple occasions, while fears grow that it may run out of water.
(more)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/05/28/mexico-heat-dome-texas-florida-west/


Quiet week expected as the Gulf of Mexico sees rapid warming this May


    No tropical activity expected this week
    A disturbance may form in the southern Caribbean next week, but it will likely head due north or northeast out to sea quickly.
    Water temperatures are rapidly warming in the Gulf of Mexico.

Not only have they accelerated this month, those water temperatures are currently at record levels for the time of year. You can see from the map inset above that the western Gulf and Florida coast is running about 2 to 3°C above normal, while the central Gulf is running about 0.5 to 1°C above normal. Gulf water temps can fluctuate rapidly, and even over the last week or so, we’ve seen temps in the western Gulf slow down their rise or even backpedal a bit, while the central Gulf sees some faster warming. While this is probably best described as concerning, it’s also somewhat typical Gulf behavior — just occurring at record levels of warmth. Wherein lies the problem for the 2024 hurricane season.

https://theeyewall.com/quiet-week-expected-as-the-gulf-of-mexico-sees-rapid-warming-this-may/


https://www.bennollweather.com/weather-graphics

[kiwichick16]

hot in India

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/29/delhi-temperature-hits-499c-as-indias-capital-records-hottest-day

[Freegrass]

They need to send some heat to Europe soon. I'm sick and tired of the rain. It's been raining here in Belgium since the end of last year. Tomorrow it'll be a measly 15 °C, with even more rain. Worst spring ever…

[kassy]

Parts of northern and central India are sweltering under a severe heatwave, with a provisional record temperature of 52.3C (126.1F) registered in Delhi.
If verified, it would be the highest ever recorded in India.
More than 37 cities in the country recorded temperatures over 45C this week.

...

The India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s Soma Sen Roy told the BBC that a team had been sent to the Mungeshpur area in Delhi - where the 52.3C temperature was recorded - to verify it.
The IMD described the recording as an "outlier compared to other stations", which had recorded temperatures ranging from 45.2C to 49.1C in different parts of Delhi.
The city's authorities have warned they will issue fines to those caught wasting water as the city deals with shortages and supplies have been cut to some areas.

...

Elsewhere, the cities of Churu in Rajasthan and Sirsa in the northern Haryana state have recorded temperatures over 50C.
Rajasthan's Jaipur city reported three deaths due to heat stroke on Tuesday.

...

According to IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal in June.
He added that northwestern India is expected to see heatwave conditions for four to six days.
Indian summers, which extend from March to September, are usually hot and humid.
But the weather department has said the country is likely to experience longer and more intense heatwaves this year.
This month, the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat saw nine to 12 days of heatwave, with temperatures between 45-50C, it said.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c166xxd4y36o

[kassy]

Extremely early heatwave in Finland

First time heat wave in Finland in may. Usually they happen in June.

Temps will hit 29C. So far 12 days above 25C. These temps are 10 degree C above historical averages for may.


https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6314749/hoogste-temperatuur-ooit-gemeten-in-india-523-graden.html

[kiwichick16]

Verified   ......smashed it .....all time record   

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/29/delhi-temperature-hits-499c-as-indias-capital-records-hottest-day

[Renerpho]

They need to send some heat to Europe soon. I'm sick and tired of the rain. It's been raining here in Belgium since the end of last year. Tomorrow it'll be a measly 15 °C, with even more rain. Worst spring ever…

I think the first few months of this year in Belgium were both its wettest and its warmest on record? I don't know how to make it better, but heat isn't what you need.

Figures released on Friday by the Royal Meteorological Institute (KMI) show that February 2024 was the warmest February in Belgium since records began. Last month’s average temperature of 8.3°C was almost twice the normal February average of 4.1°C.

Last month was also the second wettest since records began. During last month 126.5 mm of rain fell at KMI’s Ukkel Weather Centre. This is almost twice the average of 65.14mm of rainfall during February.

Warm and very dull is the best way to summerise last month’s weather. During the whole month there were just 30 hours and 38 minutes of sunshine at the Ukkel Weather Centre, less than half the February average of 72 hours and 54 minutes.

By the way, "please send some heat our way soon" is a wish that can age like milk in the sun. 

[Rodius]

They need to send some heat to Europe soon. I'm sick and tired of the rain. It's been raining here in Belgium since the end of last year. Tomorrow it'll be a measly 15 °C, with even more rain. Worst spring ever…

I think the first few months of this year in Belgium were both its wettest and its warmest on record? I don't know how to make it better, but heat isn't what you need.

Figures released on Friday by the Royal Meteorological Institute (KMI) show that February 2024 was the warmest February in Belgium since records began. Last month’s average temperature of 8.3°C was almost twice the normal February average of 4.1°C.

Last month was also the second wettest since records began. During last month 126.5 mm of rain fell at KMI’s Ukkel Weather Centre. This is almost twice the average of 65.14mm of rainfall during February.

Warm and very dull is the best way to summerise last month’s weather. During the whole month there were just 30 hours and 38 minutes of sunshine at the Ukkel Weather Centre, less than half the February average of 72 hours and 54 minutes.

By the way, "please send some heat our way soon" is a wish that can age like milk in the sun. 

Exactly.... summer is coming and the forecasts are for another hot summer in Europe.
Be careful what you wish for....

[El Cid]

Exactly.... summer is coming and the forecasts are for another hot summer in Europe.
Be careful what you wish for....

Of course, we know very well that any forecast beyond 7 days is pretty much trash. Seasonal forecasts have almost zero forecast skill. This could be a very warm or a cool summer in Europe for all we know.

In my country (Hungary, Central Europe) the first five months of the year were the warmest since at least 1900 beating 2007 by 0,2 C and beating the 1900-2000 average by more than 4 C (and even higher than the last 10 years' average by 2 C)! This however does not guarantee a warm summer at all... Maybe we'll see mean reversion. Or maybe not. Nobody knows, that's my only point

[Freegrass]

They need to send some heat to Europe soon. I'm sick and tired of the rain. It's been raining here in Belgium since the end of last year. Tomorrow it'll be a measly 15 °C, with even more rain. Worst spring ever…

I think the first few months of this year in Belgium were both its wettest and its warmest on record? I don't know how to make it better, but heat isn't what you need.

Figures released on Friday by the Royal Meteorological Institute (KMI) show that February 2024 was the warmest February in Belgium since records began. Last month’s average temperature of 8.3°C was almost twice the normal February average of 4.1°C.

Last month was also the second wettest since records began. During last month 126.5 mm of rain fell at KMI’s Ukkel Weather Centre. This is almost twice the average of 65.14mm of rainfall during February.

Warm and very dull is the best way to summerise last month’s weather. During the whole month there were just 30 hours and 38 minutes of sunshine at the Ukkel Weather Centre, less than half the February average of 72 hours and 54 minutes.

By the way, "please send some heat our way soon" is a wish that can age like milk in the sun. 

Exactly.... summer is coming and the forecasts are for another hot summer in Europe.
Be careful what you wish for....

Most of Europe is already hot, except for Belgium, France, and Holland. It's been raining here in Belgium for 7 months now. Farmers are unable to plant their fields. So yes, a little sun now wouldn't be bad.

[Rascal Dog]

Of course, we know very well that any forecast beyond 7 days is pretty much trash. Seasonal forecasts have almost zero forecast skill. This could be a very warm or a cool summer in Europe for all we know.

In my country (Hungary, Central Europe) the first five months of the year were the warmest since at least 1900 beating 2007 by 0,2 C and beating the 1900-2000 average by more than 4 C (and even higher than the last 10 years' average by 2 C)! This however does not guarantee a warm summer at all... Maybe we'll see mean reversion. Or maybe not. Nobody knows, that's my only point

Knows? Of course not. Certainty isn't possible.

Forecast skill? "Almost zero" is vague.

Would you bet against CSU's hurricane forecast?

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

[Rodius]

Of course, we know very well that any forecast beyond 7 days is pretty much trash. Seasonal forecasts have almost zero forecast skill. This could be a very warm or a cool summer in Europe for all we know.

In my country (Hungary, Central Europe) the first five months of the year were the warmest since at least 1900 beating 2007 by 0,2 C and beating the 1900-2000 average by more than 4 C (and even higher than the last 10 years' average by 2 C)! This however does not guarantee a warm summer at all... Maybe we'll see mean reversion. Or maybe not. Nobody knows, that's my only point

Knows? Of course not. Certainty isn't possible.

Forecast skill? "Almost zero" is vague.

Would you bet against CSU's hurricane forecast?

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

Seasonal forecasting is possible and is relatively accurate.
But, just because the forecast is for a hot Euro summer doesn't mean it will happen.... yet the odds of summers getting hotter over time is almost a certainty (barring an AMOC slowdown/stoppage or other low odds event happening)