SH Polar Vortex

[Michael Hauber]

Also posted in weird weather thread in consequences.

Furthermore there is a remarkable string of strong low pressure systems belting across Australia and well into the Pacific.  Got some members of the weatherzone forum scratching our heads not sure what to make of it.  The pattern might have implications for ENSO, as I think its part of why a significant WWB is forecast to commence shortly.

I've been doing some hunting around to see if I can explain it as some sort of polar vortex variation.  Due to this forum I know more about the northern polar vortex than the southern which impacts on my weather.  Of course Antarctica hasn't had no real trend towards reducing sea ice, but has had a couple years of fairly low values.  Start of a similar change in SH to what has happened in NH?  Maybe some connection to changes in the Ozone hole....

Does anyone follow the SH polar vortex much and know if anything is going on that might explain part of this weird weather?

[Gray-Wolf]

Just had a look at the 10HPa winds and that is fecked!

The Years I've had the odd peek at the Vortex ( compare and contrast with the Polar Night Jet over the north?) it has been a robust circular flow right up to the final breakdown for southern Summer.

How can such a form even be stable?

it looks like the Antarctic playing catch up to the North has just taken a lurch toward parity?

The flip of the Pacific Naturals ,back in 2014, coincided with meaningful restoration of the Ozone across the continent and the impacts of both those showed near instant impact on ice extent/area.

It now looks like we are seeing similar behaviours from WAA/cold plunges in the southern Hemisphere as we saw evolve, over the last 20 years. in the North?

[Bugalugs]

I have been trying to determine trends in the southern hemisphere. On the one hand Paul Beckwith says there has been vast expansion of the polar vortex to the point where it crosses the equator.

On the other hand it is said that the the roaring 40s are contracting towards to the south pole.

Are these contracting winds and the expanding vortex two separate issues? Or is the science conflicting?

[Bugalugs]

Just bumping this, the apparently expanding south polar vortex versus winds contracting towards the pole, I was hoping someone could explain if both things can happen, they seem contradictory.

[oren]

I don't think Paul Beckwith is a reliable source.

[bligh8]

I have been trying to determine trends in the southern hemisphere. On the one hand Paul Beckwith says there has been vast expansion of the polar vortex to the point where it crosses the equator.

On the other hand it is said that the the roaring 40s are contracting towards to the south pole.

Are these contracting winds and the expanding vortex two separate issues? Or is the science conflicting?

Numerous recent papers have documented increasing atmospheric[1-3] and oceanic temperatures[4, 5] across the Antarctic Peninsula and Southern Ocean. Atmospheric air temperatures rose by 2.5°C in the northern Antarctic Peninsula from 1950 to 2000[1]. This is far greater than the global average of 0.6°C per century. This warming may have been ongoing since the 1930s[6]. This environmental change has been linked to an intensification of circumpolar westerlies[7] and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current[8, 9]. A strengthening of the circumpolar vortex results in asynchronous change, with cooling over East Antarctica and warming over West Antarctica[10]. Decreased sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea enhances warming over the western Peninsula and Weddell Sea. At the same time, there has been less snow falling over the south-western Antarctic Peninsula

For a better understanding there's more at:http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/glacier-recession/recent-change/

[steve s]

Images tell much. The jet varies. (Had to make them links)

First the southern polar jet - the "vortex" - at 10 hpa -- top of the atmosphere July 10,2016:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/07/10/0700Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-110.16,-91.63,314/loc=72.267,-53.020

Second, the more extensive 10 hpa jet July 10, 2019:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/07/10/0700Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-110.16,-91.63,314/loc=-1.100,-49.689

Third, for comparison, Greywolf's Is this real? of November 23, 2018:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/11/23/0800Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-110.16,-91.63,314/loc=138.580,-71.056

[Midnightsun]

Just bumping this, the apparently expanding south polar vortex versus winds contracting towards the pole, I was hoping someone could explain if both things can happen, they seem contradictory.

Hadley cell expansion/integration.

[Bugalugs]

Thank you, to quote Bill and Ted, for the most excellent answers.

I glean from this that while there has been westerly wind intensification around the South Pole, and contraction to the pole, there have also been breakdowns in the polar vortex.

Greywolf's link is fascinating, from a layman's POV it looks radical. Has this been observed often before, or is it new in the southern hemisphere? I will go through the Nullschool archive for a look, but would like to hear opinions.

Is Greywolf's observation similar to what is happening to the breakdown in the northern vortex? Or is it apples and oranges?

Lastly, as a Tasmanian, I find the Greywolf image interesting because if that vortex breakdown was at the right (or wrong) place it suggests South Pole weather could be exported in a direct northern line from Antarctica to Tasmania. I see that the phenomenon was observed in early summer. Does this mean summer Antarctic blasts are possibly on the cards, perhaps similar to what happened recently in the USA, causing the great cold spells and Midwest floods? Or am I extrapolating too much?

[Human Habitat Index]

I don't think Paul Beckwith is a reliable source.

why ?

[Bugalugs]

Further to this, I've been through nullschool back to 2014 when the data ends, there does seem to be great annual variation in the southern vortex. I suppose the question is whether this has always been the case, or is it changing more radically?

[oren]

I don't think Paul Beckwith is a reliable source.

why ?

I am far from being an authority on such matters, but a quick search gave me the feeling that he is an "embellisher" that will overplay the science. But I haven't done much research on this.

[Human Habitat Index]

I don't think Paul Beckwith is a reliable source.

why ?

I am far from being an authority on such matters, but a quick search gave me the feeling that he is an "embellisher" that will overplay the science. But I haven't done much research on this.

Check out his videos, they are evidence based.

[El Cid]

Paul Beckwith is obviously a lunatic, it is enough to watch just one of his videos to understand that

[Neven]

I prefer oren's description. I'm sure Paul Beckwith means well, but my impression is also that he tends to go overboard. I'm also not sure if he has ever addressed the point that he has erroneously forecast a BOE several years in a row.

[Ranman99]

What I respect the most is that Paul has put his career on the line (and paid a heavy price) and for the most part just explains the data. If there is alarm in his tone then it matches mine. I respect all of us that have put our careers on the line to get this message out.

I have watched all of his vids from start to finish over perhaps the last two years. They are fine for the most part. He tailors what he says with the data and anyone who says some of the things I have just read need to a harder look that is the bottom line.

In the not too distant future I will leverage my 19,000 plus LinkedIn connections to communicate this message and in effect also put my own end of career on the line.

I have shared a bit but it is not safe for me to go balls to the wall at this time. One thing that I do is share this site with many that I encounter that want to review the facts that they can't get on the mainstream media.

When I do begin to publicize in a bigger way I will be happy to advertise for any and all that want to get a bigger footprint on their message. Maybe even arrange some televised events using my contacts and invite Paul and others to some debates on the topic. Maybe even bring in Jordan Peterson he always draws a crowd and has weighed in on the topic. There are some that think Peterson is a looney but I would not want to debate him ;-)

We are in a very serious situation boys and girls and we all know there are better ways to do it than what we are seeing in the main stream media today. Open dialogue with truth and facts would be nice.  Wherever folks seem to by trying to do that publicly demands our support. The rate of change is exponential we all know that. WE ALL KNOW THE SCORE. My 15 year old daughter knows the score. Her friends know the score.

So what do we do. We get Paul's email address and we engage him and we question anything that does not make sense and we help him and others where we can.

Fuck.

Ok that was a very lightweight rant 

[FishOutofWater]

The SH polar vortex has been impacted by the loss of ozone in the upper stratosphere, especially in the early spring. Cooling at high levels by the loss of ozone caused a tightening of the vortex and may also be causing instabilities such as sudden stratospheric warmings which are not common events in the SH.

For more details you need to read papers and reports by actual meteorologists. Paul Beckwith is not a good information source for Antarctic meteorology. The combined effects of ocean heating and ozone loss are affecting Antarctic weather, but it's very complicated because it also involves ocean currents, fresh water layers and deep convection of cold salty water. Hansen's papers get into some of the complexities of climate change in Antarctic waters. Hansen is a legitimate expert on atmospheric physics.

[Bugalugs]

Thanks FOW, I'll look into Hansen's SH work.

My concern re the SH vortex etc is mainly to do with the future of wind and fire in Tasmania. I read that the roaring 40s were heading south, but as a resident I have not perceived any drop in the wind in my eight years here, more like the opposite. The wind might be less consistent, but when it hits it packs a punch. I have been through tropical cyclones and it blows here like a Category One at times. Add fire and you can understand my concern.

I guess BOM records would reveal the trend and I will check them.

Tasmania has always had bad fires, but the drying trend here in summer, and the extra heat and evaporation, and wind, makes me think the island could become a wildfire centre, at least until the forests are burned down into bush or grassland from repeated fires.

There has already been a marked drying trend on Tasmania's west coast, which I assume means something has happened to the trade wind, or the moisture in the wind.

That said, Tassie is still a darn nice place to be. It's just those two or three months of summer that are a worry, given what we are seeing elsewhere re worsening fires.

I am also curious if the changing SH vortex has implications for Australia's weather, will there be future rain events like the USA's Midwest experienced? It does appear that SH ice is here for the longer term, the action for now is in the Arctic.

[FishOutofWater]

I think that your concerns about fire are justified. Places with Mediterranean climates have fire problems that have gone from bad to worse. Spain and Greece, California and Australia have all had extreme fire storms in recent years that are worse than they used to be because of warmer and drier weather.

[Pipster]

There is now a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in place over the Antarctic. Judging by the effects these have in the northern hemisphere we will be seeing effects on the polar vortex and decreased ice extent over the coming months. These SSW's are very rare in the southern hemisphere but we are likely to be seeing more and more of them.

[gerontocrat]

There is now a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in place over the Antarctic. Judging by the effects these have in the northern hemisphere we will be seeing effects on the polar vortex and decreased ice extent over the coming months. These SSW's are very rare in the southern hemisphere but we are likely to be seeing more and more of them.

Rodius today posted this link on "What's New"

http://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/sudden-stratospheric-warming-antarctica/?fbclid=IwAR2VVB_LoyexBNxy3HdTvB2jQELo8wxM_5ewWqaJH4TW-BDX69FTvdgPpds

Great Images - and it look like persisting for some time.

[gerontocrat]

"Thar she blows"

How high can 10 hpa go?

[KiwiGriff]

Here in northland nz we had a spectacular thunderstorm around 3am
This is apparently caused by cold air in the upper atmosphere .
The forecast for the next few days is for more of the same.
I am not sure if this is due to the sudden warning event as yet
Our local weather forecasting services had a disagreement in the press as to if the event will effect us.
NIwa seem to think so but the commercial guys disagreed

[blumenkraft]

1.9˚C

[blumenkraft]

10 hPa from 24.08 including forecast, the last frame is 11.09. with temps up to ~15C.

[DavidR]

There is now a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in place over the Antarctic. Judging by the effects these have in the northern hemisphere we will be seeing effects on the polar vortex and decreased ice extent over the coming months. These SSW's are very rare in the southern hemisphere but we are likely to be seeing more and more of them.

Here's a layman's explanation with a focus on the effect on Australia.
https://theconversation.com/the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for-australia-123080

The following comment is particularly relevant for the Antarctic "We also expect an enhanced decline in Antarctic sea ice between October and January, particularly in the eastern Ross Sea and western Amundsen Sea, as more warm water moves towards the poles due to the weaker westerly winds."

[gerontocrat]

"Thar she blows"

How high can 10 hpa go?

Already much higher, both 10 & 30 hpa

Nullschool says peaking on 11th September - would you believe +13 celsius?

[gerontocrat]

The South Pole SSW currently underway just might give the clapped out satellites that send us our rctic & Antarctic sea ice data some calibration issues.

https://eos.org/features/how-sudden-stratospheric-warming-affects-the-whole-atmosphere

SSWs also drive variations in the composition, density, temperature, and winds of the upper thermosphere (about 400 kilometers above Earth’s surface). On global scales, satellite drag observations have revealed a reduction in the thermosphere density and temperature during SSWs [Yamazaki et al., 2015]. The roughly 5% reduction in neutral density can have an appreciable impact on satellite drag and orbital debris.[/size]

[gerontocrat]

"Thar she blows"

How high can 10 hpa go?

Already much higher, both 10 & 30 hpa

And more , both 10 & 30 hpa.....

NullSchool says still going strong @ 16 Sept. (no forecast later than that)

[gerontocrat]

SSW - Sudden Stratospheric Warming over Antarctica

"Thar she blows"
How high can 10 hpa go?

Already much higher, both 10 & 30 hpa

And more , both 10 & 30 hpa.....

And more , both 10 & 30 hpa.....

10 hPa Temp at S. Pole - -5.9 celsius, about 60 degrees above average,
30 hPa Temp at S. Pole  - about -60 celsius, about 25 celsius above average.

Will persist at least until 17 Sept but changing shape.
___________________________________________________________________
The technology first started to be able to observe these events around 50 years ago, and are rare in the Antarctic compared with the rest of the world.

The only event in the Antarctic since then that comes close to this one was in 2002, and this one may be even more extreme.

It will be interesting to see if the scientists (and even I) can identify changes in the troposphere over the months ahead, and if that does affect the Antarctic Sea Ice melting season, and climate in lower S. Hemisphere climate, e.g. cold in N.Z. and even worse drought in most of Australia.

It was an Arctic SSW in Jan/Feb 2018 that caused the extreme northwards push of ice from the north of Greenland,and the extreme increase of surface temperatures above average.

Given the very rare nature of this event, that may be the strongest in the Antarctic ever recorded, I expected more media interest.

[Hefaistos]

Thanks for interesting observations.
This very positive temperature gradient, how can it be interpreted?
Would it be correct to say that this is the atmosphere radiating heat out from earth?
Is it long-wave radiation or more short-wavish?

[Adam Ash]

From south western NZ (46S, 168E) the alleged recent tropospheric warming has seen promises of colder weather at ground level.  Nothing of note has eventuated, but it is difficult to tell, perhaps, because we have observed a marked reduction in snow falls and severe cold weather in the last decade.  It could be that we are experiencing cooler-warmer weather - we cannot tell.  Had a few good gales recently, but again not abnormal here.

[vox_mundi]

Sudden Warming Over Antarctica to Prolong Australia Drought
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-sudden-antarctica-prolong-australia-drought.html

... "The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting the strongest Antarctic warming on record, likely to exceed the previous record of September 2002," it said.

The upper atmosphere above the South Pole has heated up from close to minus 70 to about minus 25 degrees Celsius, bureau climatologist Andrew Watkins told AFP.

"It has leapt up more than 40 degrees warmer than normal in the course of three weeks," he said.

... The rapid warming slows down westerly winds spinning in the upper atmosphere above the South Pole until they move to the surface.

The winds track northwards until they are over Australia, blowing eastwards across the dry center to New South Wales and Queensland states, which are currently struggling through one of the driest periods on record.

"You start getting more winds from central Australia, from the desert and less winds from the ocean, so they tend to have drier, warmer conditions in New South Wales and Southern Queensland," Watkins said.

The impacts of the Antarctic event in Australia will start to arrive in the coming weeks, and be particularly felt in October before the weather pattern is expected to break down in December or January.

The east of Australia has been battling hundreds of bushfires in recent weeks, in an unusually early start to the season.


http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=maxanom&period=daily&area=nat


http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=anomaly&period=month&area=nat

[gerontocrat]

Would it be correct to say that this is the atmosphere radiating heat out from earth?

Extracts from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/df1f/4e2aeb805f29a4f70235332e601b527dffce.pdf

It's the sort of paper that makes one's brain hurt, and talks about Arctic SSWs. But some things I think apply. I don't think it is well understood what triggers these events.

So I will be looking at how that warming will or will not force itself downwards into the troposphere. It ought to show up in NullSchool that lets you look at maps based on different hPa values, from 10 down to surface pressure.

Might see some effect on the Polar Vortex at 250 hPa soon. But I am a complete novice at this subject, so don't expect pearls of wisdom.

Extracts (not in order)
______________________________________________________________
In global warming scenarios, some general circulation model (GCM) studies find an increased
frequency of SSW events  but these results are not conclusive , requiring a deeper understanding on the mechanisms involved and the role of different forcing factors.

The triggering of SSW events involves upward propagating planetary waves , which were shown to be related to tropospheric sea level pressure patterns.

SSW events affect, within weeks to months, the tropospheric jet, the Arctic Oscillation, midlatitude blocking systems, and extreme weather events

____________________________________________________________________

[MyACIsDying]

A straightforward answer in Michael E. McIntyre's paper, found in this excellent explanation of SSW's
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/readme.html

And in the simulations at least, there is no doubt whatever that the large temperature rises are induced adiabatically, by descent of air parcels in the polar cap (e.g. Hsu, 38 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Vol. 60, No. 1 1980; Dunkerton et al., 1981);

[gerontocrat]

SSW - Sudden Stratospheric Warming over Antarctica

"Thar she blows"
How high can 10 hpa go?

Already much higher, both 10 & 30 hpa

And more , both 10 & 30 hpa.....

And more , both 10 & 30 hpa.....

Will 10 hPa temp get above zero celsius?

[gerontocrat]

I forgot to post what Antarctica at 10 hPa normally looks like in mid-September, compared with during this SSW.

So here are 2 images from NullSchool

[gerontocrat]

Current S Pole 10 hPa & 30 hPa temps.

gif showing development of the SSW - note  movement of centre of main main vortex to the Weddell Sea - click to play

[MyACIsDying]

I found NOAA's monthly animation of the 10hPa temp anomalies interesting, taken from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

The scale is too narrow to reflect the full delta it seems, but interesting how the rest of the worlds 10hPa levels cool down as this SSW unfolds.

[blumenkraft]

WOW 

[gerontocrat]

Ozone depletion now concentrated towards S. America, as is the polar vortex

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49714987
2019 ozone hole could be smallest in three decades

The ozone hole over Antarctica this year could be one of the smallest seen in three decades, say scientists. Observations of the gas's depletion high in the atmosphere demonstrate that it hasn't opened up in 2019 in the way it normally does.

The EU's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) says it's currently well under half the area usually seen in mid-September. The hole is also off-centre and far from the pole, the EU agency adds.

This past week has seen the area of deep thinning cover just over five million square km. This time last year it was beyond 20 million square km, although in 2017 it was just above 10 million sq km. In other words, there is a good degree of variability from year to year.

The conditions for thinning occur annually just as the Antarctic emerges from Winter. The reactions that work to destroy ozone in the cold stratosphere are initiated by the return of sunshine at high latitudes.

Scientists say that while losses started earlier than normal this year, they were truncated by a sudden warming event that lifted temperatures in the stratosphere by 20-30 degrees. This destabilised the ozone destroying process.

[gerontocrat]

SSW Continues but maybe decaying soon


https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.55,-89.16,281

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

10 hPa temps still 60+ degrees above average,
30 hPa temps still rising a bit, now nearly 30 degrees above average.

Nullschool says still strong today, but decaying b 24 Sept, with vortex centre moving back from the Weddell Sea towards the S Pole.

[kassy]

It will be interesting to see if we get more SSW events in the near future.

[be cause]

Hi gerontocrat .. your last post shows the S. hemisphere but refers to temps at the N. pole .. shirly some mistake ? b.c.

[gerontocrat]

Cor blimey......

[gerontocrat]

Hi gerontocrat .. your last post shows the S. hemisphere but refers to temps at the N. pole .. shirly some mistake ? b.c.

shorely was - but can't change it now, Neven's new 2 day rule.

[HapHazard]

hey that first image in the last post is broken i cant scroll up

(geezus!)

[sark]

Amazing.  Sept 23-26 2002 vs today, Sept 21.

My dad always taught me about planets, that if you got air, you got cold, and you got torque, the polar cell will run.

Melt pulses from ice sheets could take heat out of the atmosphere to restore function of the Earth's interglacial climate pattern.  It survived the Eemian somehow, didn't it?  Perhaps that is the thing that is happening.  Anticyclones form over ice sheets and dissolve in position.  A proper "blocked" pattern like has emerged in the last 5 years.

Friends of mine from NZ and Oz have asked me, What happened last time?

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/LarsenB

Maybe a whole lot of heat is about to come out of the oceans and atmosphere.  Watch out for a  big wave.

[Pmt111500]

Ah, it's springtime for southpole then. Oddly twisted towards Atlantic the stratosphere vortex though. Or maybe this is near normal, as more warmth is stored on that Pacific side of planet?? Maybe the timing of this springtime SSW is optimal for generating huge stratospheric anomalies? One week before sunlight hits the pole on the ground. Interesting to see how far down in the atmosphere this progresses. Likely the Stratosphere Vortex moves back in 2 weeks when sunlight evens the differences between ground level and stratosphere. My 2c. Ozone reacts violently with impurities in the atmosphere in sunlight.

How abnormal this is, I haven't a clue.

[gerontocrat]

Normal in Antarctica an SSW is not. In the 50 years since the technology allowed us to "see" these events, they happen every few years in the Arctic but only 2 in Antarctica, 2002 & 2009, and 2009 was minor.

This one may be stronger than 2002. The centre of the polar vortex being pushed to over the Weddell Sea is not normal. The first image shows a "normal" Sept situation (2018).

It looks like the SSW is now decaying. (See further images & a gif - click to play).

Effects - seems there is a time lag. But not a lot of data since only 2 events in the records.
They say it will reduce thinning of the ozone.
Possible unseasonal cold weather in NZ, and even drier weather over most of Aussie.

Just one reference to possible accelerated loss of Antarctic sea ice later in the year.

But quite a bit of climate change since 2002 - so who knows?