COVID-19

[blumenkraft]

The president of the United States of America, ladies and gentlemen:

"I think we're gonna be very good with the coronavirus. I think that at some point that's going to sort of just disappear, I hope."

Link >> https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1278405761077477376

BTW, here are the other 13 times when he said it will 'go away':

[etienne]

Discussions about vents/air flow etc can be done here:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3024.msg271432.html#msg271432

Please focus on Covid (also Fauci over Trump)

TIA! Kassy

[The Walrus]

To get back on topic:

Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

The changes in mortality that occurred during the pandemic varied by state and region. In New York City, all-cause mortality rose 7-fold above baseline at the peak of the pandemic, for a total of 25 100 (95%prediction interval, 24 800-25 400) excess deaths, of which 26% were unattributed to COVID-19 (Table and Figure 2). In contrast, in the rest of New York State, the increase was more moderate, rising 2-fold above baseline and resulting in 12 300 (95% prediction interval, 11 900-12 700) excess deaths.

The baseline model was adjusted for seasonality, year-to-year baseline variation, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays.

The baseline was apparently not adjusted for a shutdown. The cessation of most activity should've led to a significant decrease in mortality. They are doing:

Actual - Baseline = Excess

The real excess death is given by:

Actual - (Baseline - adjustment for shutdown) = Excess

Don’t we wish to determine the net increase?  In other words, increased deaths due to COVID less decreased deaths due to the shutdown.  If the virus leads to a change in behavior, should that not be factored in?

[bluice]

The president of the United States of America, ladies and gentlemen:

"I think we're gonna be very good with the coronavirus. I think that at some point that's going to sort of just disappear, I hope."

Link >> https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1278405761077477376

BTW, here are the other 13 times when he said it will 'go away':

Hope is the best he has, lacking competence for an actual policy. Sad.

[kassy]

Actual - (Baseline - adjustment for shutdown) = Excess

The problem is that we don´t have numbers for those adjustments or a baseline for them.

[bbr2315]

The highest zipcode IFR in NYC is now up to .71%. The other top zips also saw a jump. I am guessing they are updating the data to include probables / etc and a bunch is still missing.

While the worst zip's death toll is "only" 88, the #2 zip has a death toll of 360 (IFR .56%) and the #3 zip has a toll of 288 (IFR .52%).

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

The zipcode with highest deaths is unironically Corona, Queens, where 443 have officially died for an IFR of .4%.

[Archimid]

The problem is that we don´t have numbers for those adjustments or a baseline for them.

During economic recessions, the mortality rate goes down. During economic booms, the mortality rate goes up. When humans are hyperactive, more humans pass away. When humans have low activity levels less humans pass away, at least where there is abundance.

As a sanity check.

Economic growth and human mortality


https://socialsciences.nature.com/posts/43994-misconceptions-on-economic-growth-recessions-and-health

Although the question is still hotly debated, it is generally considered that mortality is procyclical, which means that it decreases more rapidly during recessions and more slowly during economic booms. As a researcher working at the frontier between climate and health sciences, I wanted to describe a new dimension of this scientific question by using climate data and tools. Thus, in a new cross-disciplinary study, I modeled the association between daily temperatures and mortality records for a very large ensemble of 140 European regions to determine at which temperatures, months and seasons we find the most procyclical mortality rates.

The comparison between European societies confirmed that the countries and regions with the largest economic slowdown during the 2008 recession were also those with the fastest decline in mortality trends. However, mortality rates were found to be more procyclical during the cold part of the year, and less procyclical in summer. Given that the causes of death are different in each season (for example, seasonal influenza in winter, air pollution during atmospheric stability), this result suggests for the first time that climate could be one of the (many) mediating factors explaining the relationship between economic growth and the strength of mortality trends. This finding is important because the procyclical nature of mortality might change as a result of the current context of warming temperatures, and the associated adaptive response of societies.

My guess: to determine "adjustment for shutdown" one has to look at economic activity indicators and their relationship to local mortality rate. Once good indicators are found, the expected mortality rate can be calculated using those indicators.


These fellows suggest we use liquidity:

Liquidity, Economic Activity, and Mortality

https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/10.1162/REST_a_00184

We document a within-month mortality cycle where deaths decline before the first day of the month and spike after the first. This cycle is present across a wide variety of causes and demographic groups. A similar cycle exists for a range of economic activities, suggesting the mortality cycle may be due to short-term variation in levels of economic activity. We provide evidence that the within-month activity cycle is generated by liquidity. Our results suggest a causal pathway whereby liquidity problems reduce activity, which in turn reduces mortality. These relationships may help explain the procyclical nature of mortality.

But given stimulus, this liquidity might get dicey.  I'm sure there are indicators that can tell us more. I'll think about it a bit more.

[vox_mundi]

States With Highest Income Inequality Experienced a Larger Number of COVID-19 Deaths
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-states-highest-income-inequality-experienced.html

States with the highest level of income inequality had a larger number of COVID-19-related deaths compared with states with lower income inequality. New York state, with the highest income inequality, had a mortality rate of 51.7 deaths per 100,000. This is 125 times greater than Utah, the state with the lowest income inequality and which had a mortality of 0.41 per 100,000 at the end of the period studied.

Looking at the top three in each category, New York was followed by Louisiana with 19 deaths per 100,000, and Connecticut with 16.9 deaths per 100,000. States in addition to Utah with the lowest COVID deaths that were linked to income inequality were South Dakota, with 0.7 deaths per 100,000 and North Dakota, which had one death per 100,000.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, data from New York City and Chicago shows that African Americans and Hispanics have experienced higher rates of infection and death. These groups are largely low income, have less access to health care, hold essential jobs limiting their ability to maintain social distancing, and frequently live in extended family households where the infection risk is higher.

Carlos Irwin A. Oronce et al. Association Between State-Level Income Inequality and COVID-19 Cases and Mortality in the USA, Journal of General Internal Medicine (2020).
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-05971-3

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Stroke Appears 8 Times More Likely With COVID Than With Flu
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-covid-flu.html

Both flu and COVID-19 can raise your risk for a stroke, but the odds appear to be eight times higher with the coronavirus, a new study finds.

Among more than 1,900 patients with COVID-19, 1.6% suffered a stroke, versus 0.2% of nearly 1,500 patients seriously ill with flu, researchers found.

"Fundamentally, our results support the notion that COVID-19 infection is more severe than influenza infection," Parikh added.

COVID-19 disease has also been associated with blood clots that could increase stroke risk, he said.

Dr. Salman Azhar is director of stroke at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City. He said, "This virus has a predilection to cause some level of clotting, and we think that maybe it's because of increases in inflammation in the body."

Azhar explained that COVID-19 attacks the cells that line blood vessels, which is one reason for the increased risk for blood clots leading to stroke. Also, the virus increases the production of clotting factors, he said.

... Both young and old COVID patients can develop clots, with the sickest most at risk, Azhar said.

In some patients, stroke may be the first sign of COVID-19. In this study, more than one-quarter of patients went to the emergency room because of a stroke and were later diagnosed with the coronavirus.

Alexander E. Merkler et al. Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vs Patients With Influenza, JAMA Neurology (2020)
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2768098

[vox_mundi]

FDA will require 50% efficacy for COVID-19 vaccines, WSJ says. How high is that bar?
https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/fda-to-require-at-least-50-efficacy-for-covid-19-vaccines-wsj

Coronavirus vaccine developers now have some advice from the FDA: To win approval, any vaccine must be at least 50% more effective than placebo in preventing the disease.

FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn plans to roll out that guidance at a Senate hearing today, the Wall Street Journal reports. It sets a bar about on par with a flu shot's performance in a good year—but it falls short of some expert recommendations for arresting the virus' spread.

The agency also won’t approve a shot based on its ability to create antibodies in patients’ blood, the WSJ reports. Experts don’t yet know how those antibodies translate to protection against COVID-19.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-to-issue-guidance-on-covid-19-vaccine-approval-11593516090

An efficacy figure of 50% would compare somewhat favorably to flu vaccine efficacy in the last decade, which has ranged from 19% to 60% since 2010, according to the CDC. Many childhood vaccines are effective for 85% to 95% of recipients, the World Health Organization says.

Merck's Everbo, an Ebola vaccine developed in response to a 2014 outbreak, was 100% effective in a "ring" vaccination study. The drugmaker is using the same platform for one of its COVID-19 vaccine programs.

But 50% efficacy falls short of what some researchers have concluded would have been needed to quash the COVID-19 outbreak. In a computer model, a team found that a vaccine would've needed to be at least 70% effective to halt the spread of the virus, if it were given to 60% of the population within 90 days of the outbreak starting.

... Despite the urgency of this particular vaccine hunt, the FDA “will not reduce its standards or cut corners in its review to approve a vaccine,” according to a summary of the guidance cited by the WSJ.

That pledge comes as some industry watchers worry the Trump administration could pressure the agency to approve a vaccine before the election for a political win. Hahn has said politics will not go into COVID-19 vaccine reviews.

... An emergency authorization would be a quicker process than a full approval, but it’d still require the developer to show proof of efficacy. In any case, after potential approvals, the FDA will require a year-long post-marketing study to track potential risks, WSJ reports.

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Covid-19 Outbreaks at Meat-processing Plants are Being Kept Quiet
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/01/revealed-covid-19-outbreaks-meat-processing-plants-north-carolina

North Carolina is one of the largest pork and poultry producing states in the US, exporting roughly $1.25bn in hogs, chickens and turkeys every year. Health departments in rural parts of the state, areas that often lean on large meatpacking or food processing facilities as primary sources of employment, have so far been tight-lipped about Covid-19 outbreaks in those plants.

... A chicken processing facility in western North Carolina reportedly underwent widespread testing for Covid-19 in early June.

https://morganton.com/news/burke-sees-double-digit-increase-of-covid-19-cases/article_894532c1-267a-5446-bd89-8a894ca2f8ea.html

The testing turned up 150 positive cases at the facility, the workers said.

On 8 June, the health department for Burke county, where the Case Farms facility is located, reported 136 new Covid cases, a 25% increase in its total caseload. Yet neither the company, county officials nor the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services would confirm whether those cases were connected to Case Farms.

... Earlier this year, North Carolina’s health department had previously reported the names of farms with two or more positive cases, but in May replaced the names with addresses in order to “better reflect the location of the outbreak”, according to a department spokesperson.

“Why, when a nursing home has an outbreak, it’s in the paper, but when a meatpacking facility does, it’s not?” said Mac Legerton, a longtime grassroots policy advocate and co-director of the Robeson County Cooperative for Sustainable Development

“The law needs to be that in a pandemic all outbreaks at public and private facilities are made public to protect the employees of the institutions and to inform the public.”

As of Thursday, there were 2,772 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in 28 meat processing plant “clusters” around the state, the department said, but would not specify further.

... Since the pandemic began, more than 36,000 meat processing and farm workers have tested positive for Covid-19 and at least 116 have died, according to a tally by the Food and Environment Reporting Network, though the true number is likely higher.

... In late April, while outbreaks began emerging at meat processing plants across the country, Donald Trump signed an executive order forcing the facilities to remain open. That same month, the US exported a record amount of pork to China, despite industry claims of a domestic shortage.

[vox_mundi]

US Reports Daily Case Record of Over 50,000 After Trump Says Covid-19 Will 'Disappear'

The U.S. set a new record with 50,700 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, according to the tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. And in terms of recent trends, across the world, 60% of the overall confirmed cases (10,694,060) were identified in the past month, according to the UN.

... “States Trump won [in the 2016 election] account for about three out of four of the newest cases,” AP reported Wednesday. Check out the chart illustrating as much, here.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426206178889730

POTUS45 is still hoping it’ll all just go away, telling Fox Business Wednesday, “I think that, at some point, that’s going to sort of just disappear, I hope.”
https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-disappear-cac3b50f-14f5-435a-932b-32e61f448554.html

Florida reported a record 10,000 new cases in one day. The Associated Press reported that the curve of infection rates have been rising in 40 out of 50 states.

----------------------

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/02/coronavirus-live-updates-latest-news-new-zealand-health-minister-quits-who-middle-east-us-trump-brazil

The leaders of some of the nation’s major business organizations have signed a letter urging the White House and the National Governors Association to establish mandatory mask guidelines.

https://www.uschamber.com/letters-congress/joint-letter-business-leaders-call-president-vp-and-nga-lead-face-covering-concerns

Meanwhile, Texas governor Greg Abbott today issued an executive order requiring all Texans to wear a face mask in public spaces.

... Kansas makes face masks mandatory after spike in cases
Kansas has followed several other states in requiring face coverings, most recently Indiana.

Kansas had a 46.1% spike in coronavirus infections last week.

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Herman Cain Tests Positive for Covid-19 After Attending Trump's Tulsa Rally
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jul/02/us-new-coronavirus-case-records-russian-bounty-row-covid-19-donald-trump-live-updates

Herman Cain, the former 2012 Republican presidential candidate, has tested positive for Covid-19. His team announced the results on Thursday.

He attended last month’s Tulsa, Oklahoma, rally for President Donald Trump, supporting his fellow Republican at an event where many attendees crowded close together without wearing face masks to prevent the spread of the virus.

Cain had posted a maskless photo on Twitter of himself at the rally surrounded by fellow Trump supporters also not wearing masks.

He was informed on Monday that he had tested positive for coronavirus. By Wednesday, he had developed symptoms serious enough to require hospitalization. At 74, he is part of the age group most at risk for severe Covid-19.

https://mobile.twitter.com/karentravers/status/1278740866962685955

Almost 24 hours before news broke that Herman Cain had tested positive for COVID-19 he sounded a supportive note about an upcoming Independence Day celebration at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota featuring Donald Trump.

Herman Cain@THEHermanCain·23h
Masks will not be mandatory for the event, which will be attended by President Trump.  PEOPLE ARE FED UP!

https://mobile.twitter.com/THEHermanCain/status/1278444266881273856

... somebody's going to be a no-show

-------------------------------

Video Appears To Show Trump Campaign Removing Social-Distancing Stickers In Tulsa
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/27/trump-campaign-stickers-social-distancing-tulsa-video

Video has emerged of Trump campaign volunteers apparently removing social distancing stickers from seats in the arena where the US president gave a campaign rally that many public health experts had warned against because of the still-surging coronavirus pandemic.

The Washington Post published the video, which it says shows Trump campaign workers methodically removing the stickers from seats at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The labels read “Do Not Sit Here, Please!” and had been placed there by the venue in order to minimize the risk of Covid-19 infection.

The Post said the Trump campaign directed the removal of the stickers, against the wishes of the management of the 19,000-seat arena where the 20 June rally was held as part of Trump’s re-election campaign. ...  “They also told us that they didn’t want any signs posted saying we should social distance in the venue.”

... Since the rally, eight Trump staffers have tested positive for the virus and many more have been directed to self-quarantine. On Friday night, according to ABC News, campaign staff who were in Tulsa were emailed and told they “are required to obtain a negative Covid-19 test this weekend”.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/workers-removed-thousands-of-social-distancing-stickers-before-trumps-tulsa-rally-according-to-video-and-a-person-familiar-with-the-set-up/2020/06/27/f429c3be-b801-11ea-9b0f-c797548c1154_story.html

[vox_mundi]

College Students Going to 'COVID Parties' to See Who Gets Sick First, Alabama Officials Say
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5362758002

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – As coronavirus cases around the U.S. continue to rise, authorities in one Alabama county may have identified a possible source for their increase.

Infected college students.

Tuscaloosa Fire Rescue Chief Randy Smith said Tuesday that city officials were able to confirm incidents of students knowingly diagnosed with COVID-19 still choosing to attend parties and gatherings within the city and county.

https://www.tuscaloosanews.com/news/20200701/chief-infected-students-attended-parties-in-tuscaloosa-county

... “We did some additional research. Not only did the doctors’ offices help confirm it, but the state confirmed they also had the same information.”

Tuscaloosa City Councilor Sonya McKinstry told ABC News that students have been organizing "COVID parties" at which they intentionally infect each other.

"They put money in a pot and they try to get COVID. Whoever gets COVID first gets the pot. It makes no sense," McKinstry told the network. "They're intentionally doing it."

McKinstry told ABC News that officials want to prevent such parties, but the task is challenging because the students are blatantly disregarding guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"When you're dealing with the mind frame of people who are intentionally doing stuff like that and they're spreading it intentionally, how can you truly fight something that people are constantly trying to promote?" McKinstry said.

In Alabama, 38,442 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed – 10,696 within the past two weeks – and 947 patients with the illness have died.

(... as Vinny 'Bag-a-donuts' would say ... "Hey Stan, you're in Ala-fuckin-bama")
My Cousin Vinny - 1992

----------------------------------



----------------------------------

Top Conservative Lawmaker Demands White House Disband Coronavirus Task Force
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/07/02/andy-biggs-disband-coronavirus-task-force-348048

AZ Rep. Andy Biggs (R), chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, on Thursday called on the White House to shutter its coronavirus task force, claiming the nation’s top public health experts were undermining President Donald Trump.

“As our economy is restored, it is imperative that President Trump is not undermined in his mission to return our economy to greatness,” the Arizona Republican said in a statement released after the Labor Department reported the U.S. economy had added 4.8 million jobs in June and the unemployment rate had fallen to 11.1 percent.

Biggs went on to assert that Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, “continue to contradict many of President Trump’s stated goals and actions for returning to normalcy as we know more about” the highly infectious outbreak.

“This is causing panic that compromises our economic recovery,” Biggs said. “We can protect our most vulnerable from the COVID-19 outbreak while still protecting lives and livelihoods of the rest of the population. It’s time for the COVID-19 task force to be disbanded so that President Trump’s message is not mitigated or distorted.”

The demand from a leading Republican lawmaker and fierce ally of the president comes after the U.S. reported a record number of new Covid-19 infections Wednesday, surpassing 50,000 cases for the first time.

Biggs’ own home state of Arizona is among those across the South and West contributing to the precipitous climbs in caseloads.

[blumenkraft]

Remember when all those priests just kept doing their shit, and they then became sick, and then they died?

Former Republican Presidential Candidate Herman Cain is like 'hold my beer':

1) Attended Trump's Tulsa Rally;
2) Wrote an editorial to suggest "the media worked very hard to scare people out of attending the Trump campaign rally"
3) Is now hospitalized with COVID-19

Link >> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/herman-cain-hospitalized-with-covid-19.html

[vox_mundi]

Secret Service Agents Preparing for Pence Arizona Trip Contracted Coronavirus
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/505767-secret-service-members-who-helped-organize-pence-arizona-trip-test?amp

Vice President Pence’s trip to Arizona this week had to be postponed by a day after several Secret Service agents who helped organize the visit either tested positive for the coronavirus or were showing symptoms of being infected.

On Monday night, the Secret Service urged Pence’s staff to delay the Tuesday trip until Wednesday because at least one agent on the ground had a confirmed case of covid-19 and other agents and federal officers preparing for the Arizona visit were showing signs of illness, according to two administration officials.

The Secret Service needed time to bring in healthy agents and other personnel to replace the ones who were either sick or most likely sick, one of the officials said. The official said the Secret Service estimated that a total of eight to 10 agents and other officers from sister agencies — all of whom were helping prepare for Pence’s visit to Arizona — had fallen ill.

This is the second time in recent weeks that Secret Service agents preparing for a White House or Trump campaign event outside Washington have contracted the virus. At least three Secret Service personnel working on the advance team for President Trump’s Tulsa rally on June 20 tested positive for the coronavirus. Two agents tested positive hours before the indoor stadium event was held, and dozens of agents who were on site for the rally were ordered to self-quarantine when they arrived home.

---------------------------------

US Coronavirus Cases Hit New Global Record
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/03/us-coronavirus-cases-reopening-surge-lessons

The United States reported more than 55,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, the largest single-day increase any country has ever reported, according to a Reuters tally.

The daily US tally stood at 55,274 late on Thursday, topping the previous single-day record of 54,771 set by Brazil on June 19.

Ohio, Kansas and Louisiana, all of which appeared to have controlled the spread of the virus just a month ago, have reported some of their highest single-day totals in weeks. North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, California and Texas set records for single-day cases on Wednesday.

Just two weeks ago, the US was reporting about 22,000 new cases a day. It has now reported more than 40,000 cases for seven straight days and broken records for new cases three days in a row, according to the tally.

The Covid Tracking Project said on Wednesday that the US’s seven-day average for new daily cases had doubled since 13 June, and that hospitalizations had jumped by the highest number since 21 April.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1278089978061283329?s=20

----------------------------------------

In New Record, India Adds 20,000 Virus Cases

India reported another single-day record for new virus cases on Friday - 20,903.

The figure took the national total to 625,544. The Ministry of Health also reported an additional 379 deaths in the past 24 hours, taking fatalities up to 18,213.

With the current rate of infections, India is expected to surpass Russia's 660,000 cases in coming days and become the third worst-hit country after the United States and Brazil.

---------------------------------

Brazil Tops 60,000 Deaths

Brazil surpassed 60,000 coronavirus deaths, the Ministry of Health said, citing a recent wave of contamination in southern and midwestern areas of the country.

COVID-19: Brazil deploys army to help protect Indigenous people
A total of 1,038 additional deaths were registered in the past 24 hours, taking the overall number of fatalities to 60,632, the ministry said.

The number of deaths in the south and the midwest regions grew by 37 percent and 36 percent, respectively, in the epidemiological week ended last Saturday, the ministry added, in contrast to setbacks seen in the North and Southeast and a trend of stability in the Northeast.

--------------------------------

Peru Surpasses 10,000 Coronavirus Deaths

Peru's COVID-19 death toll rose to 10,045 on Thursday, the health ministry said, a day after the Latin American nation began easing a lockdown in a bid to revive the economy.

The number of deaths rose by 185 in the last 24 hours, while the number of people infected rose to 292,004, the ministry said. Peru is Latin-America's worst-hit country after Brazil.

Among the latest victims is the leader of the Awajun Indigenous people, Santiago Manuin, who died on Wednesday aged 63.

Manuin was recognised with Spain's Queen Sofia Prize for his crusade in defence of the Amazon and indigenous rights.

---------------------------------

Coronavirus Outbreak Hits Africa Health Workers

The World Health Organization (WHO) said more than 6,000 health workers have been infected with the coronavirus in 38 countries across its Africa region since the pandemic began.

Hundreds of health workers have already been infected in the latest hotspot of South Africa's Gauteng province, which includes Johannesburg and the capital, Pretoria. Across South Africa, more than 2,000 health workers have been infected. In Nigeria, nearly 1,000 have been sickened.

The WHO's 47-country Africa region has the most severe health workforce shortage in the world, and concerns about adequate personal protective gear against the coronavirus are widespread.

Already a handful of countries have seen more than 10 percent of their health workers infected as of Tuesday: Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Niger, Mozambique and Burundi.

----------------------------------------

Monkeys Infected With Coronavirus Developed Short-term Immunity
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-monkeys-infected-coronavirus-short-term-immunity.html

Test monkeys infected with the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic were protected from reinfection for up to 28 days later, according to a Chinese study published in the journal Science.   

Scientists from Peking Union Medical College infected six rhesus macaques in their trachea with a dose of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. They developed mild to moderate symptoms, and took about two weeks to recover. 

Twenty-eight days after the first infection, four of the six monkeys received another dose of virus, but this time, despite a brief rise in temperature, they showed no sign of reinfection, the study authors wrote.

While the monkeys displayed initial immunity, it is not clear how long such immunity will last in humans - it will be necessary to wait for months, or even years, to know if the millions of people infected at the start of the pandemic are protected from reinfection.

Wei Deng et al. Primary exposure to SARS-CoV-2 protects against reinfection in rhesus macaques, Science (2020).
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/07/01/science.abc5343

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Dutch report new coronavirus infection on mink farm
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-dutch-coronavirus-infection-mink-farm.html

Dutch authorities announced Friday that yet another mink farm has been infected with the novel coronavirus, making 18 in total, with thousands of animals to be culled.

The outbreak was reported on a farm at Landhorst in the southeast, the Health Ministry said in a statement, in the same region where 17 other farms were also infected.

The farm, which has more than 4,300 animals "will be cleared as soon as possible," it added.

[vox_mundi]

US Included On England's Covid-19 'Red List'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/03/us-included-on-englands-covid-19-red-list-for-travellers

The US will be on a “red list” of high-risk countries [like India, Brazil, & Russia] that people in England are advised not to visit for non-essential reasons because of its continued high level of coronavirus cases, the government has confirmed.

Travel restrictions will be relaxed in England for more than 50 countries including nearly all EU countries, British territories such as Bermuda and Gibraltar, and Australia and New Zealand.

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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Mexican State Considers Closing US Border as Arizona Cases Rise
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/03/coronavirus-live-news-cases-rising-us-states-update-brazil-covid-19-infections-latest-updates

Mexico’s coronavirus outbreak rose by a record 6,741 confirmed cases and 679 deaths Thursday, putting the country’s toll of 29,189 Covid-19 deaths higher than Spains, though the milestone was overshadowed by the resurgence in the United States.

Reacting to a spike in virus cases reported in Arizona, the top health official in the neighbouring Mexican state of Sonora is asking Mexico’s federal government to temporarily close the border to non-essential visits from the US.

“No more crossings from the United States into Mexico for visitors who do not have essential activities,” Sonora state Health Secretary Enrique Clausen said Wednesday.

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Coronavirus Cases Surge by Nearly 8,000 in South Africa
https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/gauteng-health-facilities-have-reached-maximum-bed-capacity-department-20200702

On Thursday, authorities reported the country’s biggest single-day jump in coronavirus cases, adding 8,728 confirmed infections and taking the total count to 168,061.

The fastest rise in cases has been in Gauteng, the country’s richest and most populous province, where health officials now say may have to reimpose some restrictions as limited hospital facilities are overwhelmed. Steps taken to expand capacity are proving inadequate with a critical shortage of trained nurses and other staff a major problem.

“Our predictions tell us that we will be reaching 120 000 [cases] by the end of July. We will be getting closer to 250 000 to 300 000 by August, [and in] September which is expected to be the peak, we will be having more than that,” said Dr Bandile Masuku, the top health official in Gauteng.

The lockdown caused great hardship to tens of millions who depend on daily work to eat, and further damaged an already fragile economy. The poor have been disproportionately hit by the pandemic with social distancing and other measures difficult in over-crowded neighbourhoods.

-------------------------------

Authorities in northern Nigeria’s biggest city Kano have lifted a three-month lockdown imposed to contain a coronavirus outbreak linked to hundreds of deaths.

Kano was put under lockdown in April after medics and cemetery workers reported a spike in “unexplained” deaths.

A team of health experts from the central government found that up to 600 fatalities may have been linked to the virus, but local officials put the figure at under half that number.

The research was based on interviews with relatives of the deceased and medics but the figures were never added to the official tally as no tests were conducted.

... Kano’s relaxation of restrictions comes as the central government has rolled back virus measures around the country despite mounting infections.

Africa’s largest nation has reported 27,110 officially confirmed cases and 616 deaths, but has been struggling to provide adequate testing capacity.

--------------------------------

Despite imposing an early lockdown, containment may be unravelling in Bolivia amid poverty, an underprepared health system and a bitter political standoff
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/03/bolivia-coronavirus-pandemic

“The health system, public and private, collapsed,” said Flores. Many doctors in the regional capital of Trinidad fell ill. Other medical staff, terrified, locked themselves in at home or fled to remote farmhouses. As critically ill patients multiplied, the death toll began to climb.

Flores, who was initially hired by a local cattle ranchers’ association and has since returned as a volunteer, explained:

... There were no medical supplies, there were no ventilators, no oxygen.

Here in Trinidad most people have a relative, a friend, a neighbour who has died. We’re in a health disaster.

----------------------------------

The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Iraq increased sevenfold in June, the International Rescue Committee said as it urged a redoubling of efforts to contain the spread of the disease in the country.

By 1 July there had been 53,708 infections detected in the country, up from 6,868 on 1 June. The ministry of health has announced that hospitals are almost at full capacity, and that schools and universities will be converted into isolation units to cope with the surging caseload.

... "We’re seeing more than a thousand new cases confirmed each day - sometimes more than 2,000 - and it is showing no signs of slowing down. "

----------------------------------

Low income Italians are significantly more likely to die of the coronavirus than higher-income groups, the country’s first significant study into the disease’s disproportionate social impact has shown.
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/coronavirus-mortality-in-italy-is-highest-among-poor--study-shows/45878580

Italy is one of the world’s worst-hit countries with almost 35,000 Covid-19 deaths since its outbreak emerged on Feb. 21 and it was the first European nation to report large-scale infections, Reuters reports.

In its annual report, national statistics bureau ISTAT studied mortality rates for each month from January 2019 to March 2020, when the outbreak took off, focusing on the education levels of those who died.

On average, Italians who leave school early with few qualifications have lower life-expectancy than those who study for longer, ISTAT said, and this “excess mortality” remained roughly constant through February this year.

In March however, the excess death ratio of the less educated in areas affected by the virus increased to 1.38 for men from 1.23 a year earlier, and jumped to 1.36 from 1.08 for women.

ISTAT statistician Linda Sabbadini said data on education levels was more readily available than other social indicators and was “an excellent proxy for income and class in Italy.”

“Disadvantaged socio-economic conditions expose people to greater risk of living in small or overcrowded housing, reducing the possibility of adopting social distancing measures,” the ISTAT report said.

Low-income groups were also more likely to be forced to work during lockdown, in sectors such as agriculture, public transport and assistance for the elderly, ISTAT said, concluding that Covid-19 had “accentuated pre-existing inequalities.”

-----------------------------------

[vox_mundi]

Brazil's Favelas Forced to Fight Coronavirus Alone
https://m.dw.com/en/brazils-favelas-forced-to-fight-coronavirus-alone/a-54031886

Brazil's densley populated favela communities have been largely abandoned by the state in the fight against coronavirus. Residents are now organizing their own responses to contain the pandemic.

When the novel coronavirus began spreading in Brazil, it was predominantly wealthy people who were affected. A Sao Paulo businessman who had recently returned from a trip to northern Italy was the country's first official case of COVID-19. Since then, the virus has spread rapidly across Latin American's most populous nation, infecting some 1.4 million people and killing more than 60,000. Brazil's poor, many of whom live in informal settlements, or favelas, are now feeling the brunt, too.

These densely populated settlements often lack proper sanitation systems and most residents are not able to self-isolate at home. For many, going to work to earn a living is of existential importance. "If you don't leave your home to work during the day, you won't be eating that night," says Michele Silva, who lives in Rio de Janeiro's Rocinha favela, one of Brazil's largest. He co-founded the Fala Roca citizens' newspaper.

... Another reason why favela residents initially stuck to social distancing guidelines was that local drug gangs imposed curfews in some settlements, including in Rocinha. There, the dominant crime group reportedly told residents they would get a bullet to the head if they broke curfew.

A female resident of a different Rio favela, who wishes to remain anonymous, says gang members prohibited them from leaving their homes between 8:00 p.m. and 8:00 a.m. "They also banned gatherings and made masks compulsory," she says. The restrictions were in place for about a month, she added, after which the gangs stopped imposing order.

... Gilson Rodrigues, a community leader in Paraisopolis, and de-facto mayor, is keen to stress that locals have taken matters into their own hands to contain the virus outbreak. "Lawmakers are not helping us, leaving us to fend for ourselves." As a result, he and his fellow community members drew up a map and picked local "presidents" for each street. These individuals are tasked with monitoring the local health situation and calling an ambulance, if needed.

"Normal emergency services don't come to Paraisopolis and other favelas, so we hired three ambulances and doctors," says Rodrigues. They paid for the initiative though a crowdfunding campaign and by collecting donations. He says they received "zero" support from the municipal government.

Paraisopolis residents have begun producing their own masks, too, and distributing hygiene kits and groceries. Two schools have been transformed into interim sick wards to isolate those who've tested positive, and those suspected of having contracted the virus. So far, 300 residents have been isolated there for two-week periods.

... Despite the serious situation, they have not been spared from police brutality. According to the Public Security Institute, or ISP, in April and May over 300 people were killed in Rio de Janeiro state in the context of "police interventions." One of them was 14-year-old Joao Pedro Mattos Pinto, who died in his home after being shot dozens of times. His death sparked a nationwide outcry.

In early June, the country's top court banned police favelas raids due to the pandemic. Favela expert Soares Goncalves says people could not understand why the "police are acting with such brutality during a time when many residents are at home and citizens' associations are out on the streets." In his view, "any society that tolerates such [police] behavior is sick."

[vox_mundi]

Researchers Find Fans of Apocalyptic Movies May Be Coping With Pandemic Better
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-fans-apocalyptic-movies-coping-pandemic.html

A small team of researchers from the University of Chicago, Pennsylvania State University, and Aarhus University has found that people who are exposed to end-of-the-world movies may be more resilient when dealing with the real-life ongoing pandemic. They have written a paper describing questioning volunteers about movies they had seen and their real pandemic experiences. Their paper is available on the PsyArXiv preprint server.

The movie industry has been cranking out end-of-the-world type movies for years—from Martians attacks and massive volcanic eruptions to asteroid strikes—and, of course, pandemics killing everyone. Psychologists have been trying to understand why people watch such movies, but have met with little success. In this new effort, the researchers looked at such movies in another way—as preparation for real-life disaster scenarios.



They wondered if watching a movie about an epidemic, such as "Contagion," (2011) starring Gwyneth Paltrow and Matt Damon, might help people deal with a real-world pandemic. They noted that viewership of "Contagion" rose dramatically during the first few months of the coronavirus pandemic. To find out why, and whether watching the movie helped viewers, the researchers turned to Prolific—an online recruitment tool that allows researchers to connect with volunteers virtually. For their study, the researchers queried 126 individuals—notably, each of them was paid for their efforts. The researchers asked them about themselves and whether they were fans of movies in certain genres. They also asked them how they were feeling about the coronavirus and, of course, if they had watched the movie "Contagion."

The researchers found that people who had recently watched what they describe as "prepper" movies showed signs of higher levels of resilience to the real-world pandemic. They suggest exposure to certain scenes in a movie psychologically prepared viewers for some of the events that unfolded as the real pandemic got underway. They further note that people watching generic horror movies also reported higher levels of coping abilities during the early days of the real pandemic. The researchers suggest such movies allow viewers to practice coping skills, which they apparently put to use if a real need arises.

Coltan Scrivner et al. Pandemic Practice: Horror Fans and Morbidly Curious Individuals Are More Psychologically Resilient During the COVID-19 Pandemic, PsyArXiv, (2020)
https://psyarxiv.com/4c7af/

PDF: https://psyarxiv.com/4c7af/download

[vox_mundi]

Trump Ambassadors Dumped Stocks as President Downplayed Pandemic and Virus Was Spreading
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-ambassadors-sold-stocks-as-president-downplayed-pandemic-and-virus-was-spreading/ar-BB16gw0l

Several U.S. ambassadors actively shed their stock holdings as President Donald Trump tried to downplay the coronavirus outbreak in its early stages.

Ambassadors to Uruguay, France, Morocco and Italy sold shares in transactions that could have made them millions of dollars, according to financial disclosure filings reviewed by CNBC. Much of their sales were in January and continued throughout February, the records show. Their transactions line up with a timeline of federal and congressional announcements as the virus started sweeping across the globe earlier this year.

Some of the ambassadors' stock transactions were for companies involved with research or developing products that are linked to treating patients that have contracted the coronavirus, such as biopharmaceutical firms.

... As the White House scrambled to respond to the spread of the virus, Ambassadors Lewis Eisenberg, Jamie McCourt, David Fischer and Kenneth George were seeing large gains from stock transactions, their filings show.

Many of these ambassadors have been longtime GOP donors, including those who gave to Trump's 2016 campaign for president and his inaugural committee. The discovery of their trades comes after Sens. Richard Burr and Kelly Loeffler were under scrutiny for selling their securities at the start of the pandemic. Burr is under investigation for those sales by the FBI.

Another member of the Trump administration, former chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, also dumped portions of his stock portfolio while the president tried to distance himself from the pandemic, The Daily Beast recently reported.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-touted-the-economys-covid-resilience-while-his-top-aide-mick-mulvaney-dumped-his-stocks?ref=wrap



Fischer, who gave $275,000 to Trump's inaugural committee and is currently the U.S. ambassador to Morocco, sold from close to $380,000 to up to just over $2 million in stocks between January and February, according to his financial disclosure report. The Office of Government Ethics asks government officials to give a range in value of how much federal employees are making from either buying or selling assets.

https://www.opensecrets.org/trump/inauguration-donors

... McCourt, the U.S. ambassador to France, sold her shares on Jan. 17 in what's described on her financial disclosure as the "A.J. Capital Graduate Hotel Fund III." She made anywhere between $1 million and $5 million on that divestiture alone,  and up to an additional $10 million on other stock sales that same day.

McCourt gave nearly $450,000 to the Trump Victory committee during the 2016 election, a joint fundraising committee between Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee. Since her confirmation 2017, she has given a six figure check to the same fundraising operation.

... The U.S. ambassador to Italy, almost a week before the U.S. State Department issued a travel warning to people who were considering a trip to that country as it saw a wave of Covid-19 cases, made between $200,000 and $500,000 in stock sales.

Eisenberg gave $35,000 to the RNC in 2015 before Trump was officially the Republican nominee.



----------------------------------

105 University of Washington Students in Frat Houses Test Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/coronavirus-university-of-washington-frat-houses-outbreak/

More than 100 students living in fraternity houses near the University of Washington campus have reported testing positive for COVID-19, with hundreds of results pending. The Interfraternity Council, a student-led governing board for UW fraternities, said that at least 105 residents living in 15 fraternity houses have self-reported that they tested positive, CBS affiliate KIRO-TV reports.

... Experts say the outbreak, along with cases among student athletes, is a troubling sign of what may be in store if colleges reopen in the fall. University of Washington leadership said this week they hope to reopen in-person, with larger classes held virtually, but that plans could change based on the virus's spread.

--------------------------------

Texas GOP to Go Ahead With State Convention in Virus Hotspot Houston
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/02/texas-republicans-coronavirus-convention/amp/

Over opposition from doctors and some local party activists, the Texas GOP is moving ahead with a three-day convention starting July 16 in Houston, one of the nation’s coronavirus hotspots, Party leaders voted Thursday night to stick with an in-person gathering that is typically one of the largest political conventions in America, drawing thousands of attendees. Some supporters suggested that changing plans is not what President Donald Trump would want.

The convention, scheduled for July 16-18, will be held at the George R. Brown Convention Center, where roughly 6,000 people are expected to attend.

... After Thursday night's vote, the Texas Medical Association, the state’s largest medical group, announced it had withdrawn as an advertiser to the convention, arguing that face masks alone at such a large gathering were not enough.

... At one point, one member offered a motion that would have required delegates to test negative for the coronavirus before being allowed to attend the convention.

“What a load of horse shit,” one member could be heard saying on the livestream before the motion was ruled out of order.

-------------------------------------

U.S. Military Coronavirus Cases Surge as Pentagon Lifts Travel Restrictions
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/coronavirus-live-updates.html

4:49 p.m. ET — The number of U.S. active-duty military personnel infected with the coronavirus has spiked in the past three weeks, a revelation that comes as the Pentagon lifts travel restrictions in 48 states.

As of Thursday, the Pentagon has reported a total of 18,071 cases. Of those 12,521 are active-duty military, 2,644 are civilians, 1,740 are dependents and 1,166 are contractors. These figures include 8,683 recoveries and 38 deaths across the entire department.

------------------------------------

[vox_mundi]

Bolivia Digs Mass Graves as Coronavirus Deaths Surge: Reuters
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-03/u-s-cases-rise-2-1-baseball-reports-first-tests-virus-update

LA PAZ (Reuters) - Local authorities are digging mass graves at cemeteries across Bolivia to receive a new wave of victims from COVID-19, unnerving Bolivians as the outbreak rips across the Andean nation.

Bolivia has reported more than 35,500 cases of the virus and about 1,270 deaths from Covid-19, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Johns Hopkins.

The city of Cochabamba has been hard hit, with back-hoes and trucks being used to open large pits to bury the dead, Reuters reported.

Raquel Loaiza, a representative of the region´s funeral homes, said residents dying of natural causes had been buried but those who died of COVID-19 were in limbo.

"Not one has been buried," Loaiza told reporters. She said as many as 135 bodies were awaiting burial.

The predicament has alarmed local residents, who worry the mass graves could trigger new infections in the neighborhoods surrounding cemeteries.

----------------------------------

Mexico Cases Surge; Venezuela Reports 264 New Infections
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-03/u-s-cases-rise-2-1-baseball-reports-first-tests-virus-update

Mexico reported 6,740 new confirmed Covid-19 cases, bringing the total to 245,251, according to data released by the Health Ministry Friday night. Deaths rose by 654 to 29,843.

Meanwhile, Venezuela reported 264 new cases, taking the total to 6,537, Information Minister Jorge Rodriguez said. Two more people died due to coronavirus, for a total of 59 deaths.

-------------------------------------

Brazil Cases Rise 2.8%; Over 1,000 Pork Workers Tested Positive (6:30 a.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-03/u-s-cases-rise-2-1-baseball-reports-first-tests-virus-update

Brazil reported 42,223 new cases on Friday, a 2.8% rise from the previous day, bringing the national total to more than 1.53 million, the state Health Ministry said. Deaths rose by 1,290, or 2.1%, for a total of 63,174. It was the most fatalities on a single day since June 23. Brazil has the second highest number of deaths and infections after the U.S.

Separately, according to figures from the Labor Prosecutor’s Office, more than 1,000 workers at a JBS SA pork plant in Brazil, or a quarter of those tested, were infected with Covid-19.

While almost all have recovered, the high rate of infection reveals the challenges Brazilian meat companies face to keep plants running as the virus spreads in the nation.

Mass testing at JBS’s Dourados plant in Mato Grosso do Sul state started on May 25, according to documents shared by prosecutors. Of 4,134 employees tested, 1,075 were positive through July 1.



------------------------------------

Virus Forces U.S. Diplomats from Saudi Arabia
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-03/u-s-cases-rise-2-1-baseball-reports-first-tests-virus-update

Dozens of American diplomats were leaving Saudi Arabia, as cases there continued to rise, Dow Jones reported. The diplomats and their families were scheduled to return on a repatriation flight Saturday, and more are expected to leave soon. Saudi Arabia now has the most cases in the Middle East, over 200,00, second only to Iran. Deaths have topped 1,800.

-------------------------------

India Coronavirus Cases Hit Record High Amid Monsoon Rains
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-idUSKCN24508G

 MUMBAI (Reuters) - India recorded its highest singe-day spike of coronavirus cases on Saturday, with over 22,000 new cases and 442 deaths, as infections rose in the western and southern parts of the country amid heavy monsoon rains.

The western state of Maharashtra, home to the densely packed financial capital Mumbai, has the country’s highest total, recording 6,364 fresh cases of the virus on Saturday and 198 deaths from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus.

Officials in Mumbai warned residents to stay away from the coast, as heavy rains were predicted for the next 48 hours. The monsoons typically cause waterlogging in many parts of the city and could scuttle coronavirus containment efforts by causing a further rise in infection numbers, experts say.


------------------------------

Pakistani Foreign Minister Tests Positive
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-03/u-s-cases-rise-2-1-baseball-reports-first-tests-virus-update

Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said he tested positive for the coronavirus and has isolated himself, the latest senior politician sidelined by the virus, Press Trust of India reported.

On Twitter, he said he felt a slight fever and immediately quarantined at home.

The country reported 4,087 new cases on Friday, a 1.9% rise from the previous day, to a total of 221,896, while deaths reached 4,551.

------------------------------------

U.S. Case Rise 2.1%
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-03/u-s-cases-rise-2-1-baseball-reports-first-tests-virus-update

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. rose by 57,271 from a day earlier to 2.77 million, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News. The 2.1% increase was higher than the average daily increase of 1.8% over the past week. Fatalities rose 0.6% to 129,192.

Florida reported a total 178,594 cases on Friday, up 5.6% from a day earlier, compared with an average increase of 5.8% in the previous seven days. Deaths among Florida residents reached 3,684, an increase of 1.9%.

Arizona reported 4,433 new cases on Friday, a 5.1% increase from the previous day and higher than the seven-day average of 4.7%. Total cases reached 91,858. The state reported 31 new deaths, down from a record 88 on Wednesday, putting the total at 1,788.

------------------------------------

Kimberly Guilfoyle, Top Fund-Raising Official for Trump Campaign, Tests Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-03/u-s-cases-rise-2-1-baseball-reports-first-tests-virus-update

She is the third person in proximity of President Trump known to have contracted the virus.

Kimberly Guilfoyle, the girlfriend of President Trump’s eldest son and a top fund-raising official for the Trump re-election campaign, tested positive for the coronavirus on Friday before a Fourth of July event at Mount Rushmore, a person familiar with her condition said.

Ms. Guilfoyle traveled to South Dakota with Mr. Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr., in anticipation of attending a huge fireworks display where the president was set to speak. They did not travel aboard Air Force One, according to the person familiar with her condition, and she was the only person in the group who tested positive.

Ms. Guilfoyle was not experiencing symptoms, the person familiar with her condition said. She and the younger Mr. Trump never met up with the president’s entourage, the person said. Out of caution, the couple plans to drive back from South Dakota to the East Coast, the person said.

Still, that another person who was expected to be near Mr. Trump tested positive — and someone who most staff aides consider a member of the Trump family — is likely to renew attention around potential risks to the president.

The younger Mr. Trump, despite testing negative, was self-isolating and canceling public events as a precaution, Mr. Gor said.

Ms. Guilfoyle attended Mr. Trump’s indoor rally last month in Tulsa, Okla. Before and since then, some campaign staff and Secret Service personnel have tested positive for the coronavirus. Herman Cain, a former Republican presidential candidate who was also at the rally, said this week that he had been hospitalized with the virus

----------------------------------

Panel of Experts Outside the Government Could Determine Who Gets the COVID-19 Vaccine First, NIH Director Says
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/experts-outside-government-could-determine-who-gets-covid-19-vaccine-first-nih-director/

Public health officials told a Senate committee Thursday that a panel of experts outside the U.S. government may help decide who gets the eventual COVID-19 vaccine first. National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins acknowledged that the public could be wary of the U.S. government having final say on who gets the first doses.

"We think that might be something best done, in a circumstance, by an organization that is not itself governmental," Collins said in a hearing about "Operation Warp Speed," the Trump administration's plan to develop a vaccine by the end of the year. "Because it's still the case, I think, that people are a little uneasy about the government calling the shots here."

--------------------------------

White House Looks to Make 'We Need to Live With It' the New Tone On Coronavirus: Report
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/505827-white-house-looks-to-make-we-need-to-live-with-it-the-new-tone-on?amp

Trump administration officials say the White House plans to adopt a new message on the novel coronavirus pandemic in the coming weeks, with the overall tone summing up as "we need to live with it," according to a report by NBC News.

Unnamed officials from within the administration told the outlet that President Trump wants to acknowledge that the virus is not going away in the near future and will likely be a lingering problem through the November election. The plan, NBC reports, is for top officials to emphasize the need for the economy and life to move forward regardless of the virus.

Promoting pharmaceuticals and current treatments for the virus will reportedly be emphasized as part of the White House strategy.



... Give us your tired, your hungry, your infirm, and we will sacrifice them!

[Archimid]

White House Looks to Make 'We Need to Live With It' the New Tone On Coronavirus: Report

Exactly the same game plan as with climate change

Step 1: Deny that it is a problem until the problem is too big to deny

Step 2: Once the problem is too big to deny, don't deny. Accept it, but pretend it can't be solved.

It is equally stupid because the outcome is bad for everyone, but it is effective because action is mostly eliminated.

[gerontocrat]

As the 7 day railing average of new cases rockets skywards in the World & the USA, the corresponding average of daily deaths does not.

OK, one expects a lag of a few days - maybe up to 10 days , but....

Even if a larger proportion of them wot's getting are the young, there's enough of us old fogies) left to send the graph up (or maybe we oldun's are lying low).

[Archimid]

OK, one expects a lag of a few days - maybe up to 10 days , but....

1. Remember that places with full ICU's, full morgues and out of control C19 lose the capacity to count the dead like NY. Once mortuary services are overwhelmed (trailers, mass graves) death data becomes unreliable. 

2. There are many reasons for the death rate to go down in places with healthcare. If the trend of the new cases was perfectly flat, the death rate goes down.

a. Knowledge about the disease
b. increased testing with earlier diagnosis
c. Remdesivir
d. Vitamin D


The faster we bring down the death rate using knowledge, the faster the threat is over.

[pietkuip]

The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neandertals

Hugo Zeberg, Svante Pääbo
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296

A recent genetic association study (Ellinghaus et al. 2020) identified a gene cluster on chromosome 3 as a risk locus for respiratory failure in SARS-CoV-2. Recent data comprising 3,199 hospitalized COVID-19 patients and controls reproduce this and find that it is the major genetic risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization (COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative). Here, we show that the risk is conferred by a genomic segment of ~50 kb that is inherited from Neandertals and occurs at a frequency of ~30% in south Asia and ~8% in Europe.

So that may explain why there are few deaths in Japan, Hongkong, Vietnam, Taiwan. Maybe it does not have much to do with masks.

And it may explain why there were relatively many deaths in the South-Asian minorities in England.

[gandul]

The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neandertals

Hugo Zeberg, Svante Pääbo
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296

A recent genetic association study (Ellinghaus et al. 2020) identified a gene cluster on chromosome 3 as a risk locus for respiratory failure in SARS-CoV-2. Recent data comprising 3,199 hospitalized COVID-19 patients and controls reproduce this and find that it is the major genetic risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization (COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative). Here, we show that the risk is conferred by a genomic segment of ~50 kb that is inherited from Neandertals and occurs at a frequency of ~30% in south Asia and ~8% in Europe.

So that may explain why there are few deaths in Japan, Hongkong, Vietnam, Taiwan. Maybe it does not have much to do with masks.

And it may explain why there were relatively many deaths in the South-Asian minorities in England.

What does one thing (higher risk due to genetic reasons) have to do with masks?
It is pretty evident by now that masks are helping in de escalation, in countries that are using them in enclosed or too crowded environments, a help lacking in countries and communities that refuse to use masks.

Sorry I didn't bring the issue but had to respond.

[bbr2315]

The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neandertals

Hugo Zeberg, Svante Pääbo
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296

A recent genetic association study (Ellinghaus et al. 2020) identified a gene cluster on chromosome 3 as a risk locus for respiratory failure in SARS-CoV-2. Recent data comprising 3,199 hospitalized COVID-19 patients and controls reproduce this and find that it is the major genetic risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization (COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative). Here, we show that the risk is conferred by a genomic segment of ~50 kb that is inherited from Neandertals and occurs at a frequency of ~30% in south Asia and ~8% in Europe.

So that may explain why there are few deaths in Japan, Hongkong, Vietnam, Taiwan. Maybe it does not have much to do with masks.

And it may explain why there were relatively many deaths in the South-Asian minorities in England.

IDK, then why are black people dying en masse / at a rate higher than any other minority in the US?

This study strikes me as grasping but maybe I am wrong.

[greylib]

IDK, then why are black people dying en masse / at a rate higher than any other minority in the US?

This study strikes me as grasping but maybe I am wrong.

A couple of weeks back I posted part of a report from the UK Office of Nationall Statistics. They cross-referenced death certificates with the census.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

Religious differences:
For males aged 65 years and over, those identifying as Jewish or Muslim have a raised rate of death involving COVID-19 compared with all other religious groups, at 795 deaths per 100,000 and 755 deaths per 100,000 respectively. For females aged 65 years and over, those who identified as Hindu, Muslim or Jewish had a higher rate of death involving COVID-19 compared with all other religious groups.

"No Religion" had a lower death rate than "Christian". Nobody's quite sure why, nor why Jewish people are at the top of the death table. That really IS surprising to me – Judaism sets out a lot of hygiene rules, which are followed pretty thoroughly even by the non-devout. In fact, it's led to anti-Jewish pogroms in the past: "Why did no Jew die in the plague we've just suffered? They must be in league with the devil!" I doubt it's a genetic thing: Islam and Judaism are both very diverse genetically, yet they're at the top of the table. The only thing I can find common to both is circumcision, but that surely can't be right. The numbers are too big for statistical error, I think.

Racial differences:
Males from a Black ethnic background had a higher age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of death involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) than those from other ethnic backgrounds. Their ASMR of death was 2.9 times greater than that of White males.

Analysis also revealed raised death rates among males in Bangladeshi or Pakistani, Indian, and other ethnic groups. Males in these ethnic groups had rates 2.2 times, 1.8 times and 1.9 times higher than those of White ethnic background, respectively.

Females had a lower rate of death involving COVID-19 than males across all ethnic groups, with Black females having less than half the rate of Black males.

The pattern for females was largely like that of males. Females of Black ethnic background had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, at 119.8 deaths per 100,000. This was 2.3 times higher than that of White females.

All other ethnic groups, other than Chinese, had a statistically significantly raised rate of death compared with White females.

As a white atheist my chances look better than a lot of people, which has cheered me up. If I were 27 instead of 72, that would improve things, as would turning female. But, no thank you – I remember being young, and I prefer now. And females always get the short end of the stick, so I'll put up with being an Old White Male.

Some of the racial differences could be explained by wealth differences, but not too much. In the UK everyone gets pretty much the same health care. The town I live in has a large Indian population, most of them a lot richer than I am. So perhaps genetics could be a factor.

[kassy]

Non religious does not hang out like religious so that could be a factor for disease.

[vox_mundi]

23andMe Study Suggests Blood Type Affects Coronavirus Susceptibility
https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/

Early results of a new study conducted by genetic testing giant 23andMe suggest a person’s blood type affects how susceptible they are to the coronavirus — and that those with Type O appear to be the least at risk.

Preliminary data from the study — which is still underway and includes 750,000 participants, including 10,000 who told the company they had COVID-19 — indicates that people with Type O blood are between 9 and 18 percent less likely than those with other blood types to have tested positive for the disease.

There appeared to be little difference among other blood types, according to the research, which only examined susceptibility and not severity of the illness.

The findings hold when adjusted for age, body mass index, ethnicity and other existing diseases, as well as when the data is narrowed down to only health care workers and other first responders, according to the company.

A European study published last week also found Type O is associated with a lower risk — and patients with Type A blood are 50 percent more likely to need oxygen or require a ventilator.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.31.20114991v1.full.pdf

------------------------------------

While the mutation that causes the human B blood group arose around 3.5 Ma, the O group mutation dates to around 1.15 Ma. When scientists tested whether Neanderthals had the O blood group they found that two Neanderthal specimens from Spain probably had the O blood type, though there is the possibility that they were OA or OB (Lalueza-Fox et al. 2008). Though the O allele was likely to have already appeared before the split between humans and Neanderthals, it could also have arisen in the Neanderthal genome via gene flow from modern humans.

https://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/genetics/ancient-dna-and-neanderthals/dna-genotypes-and-phenotypes

----------------------------------

2 Texas Counties Urge Residents to Shelter In Place As Hospitals Reach Capacity
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/04/us/texas-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html

Hospitals in at least two Texas counties are at full capacity heading into the Fourth of July holiday weekend, with county judges urging residents to shelter in place.

Judges in Starr and Hidalgo counties sent out emergency alerts Friday, warning residents that local hospitals in the Rio Grande Valley were at capacity.

Judge Eloy Vera said there have been 18 deaths in Starr County due to Covid-19 and two severely ill patients had to be flown out of the area for treatment. One of the patients was taken to San Antonio and the other to Dallas, the judge said in the post on Facebook.

"The local and valley hospitals are at full capacity and have no more beds available. I urge all of our residents to please shelter-in-place, wear face coverings, practice social distancing and AVOID GATHERINGS," he wrote.

Vera issued a public safety alert announcing a "Level 1 Severe" threat due to the virus spreading rapidly across the county.

In neighboring Hidalgo County, Judge Richard Cortez mirrored the warning.

In a public safety alert posted on Twitter, he also announced hospitals were at capacity and asked residents to shelter in place, avoid large gatherings, wear face coverings and practice social distancing.

In the post, Cortez asked residents to celebrate the Fourth of July "responsibly," and to "Conserve resources; ONLY call 911 if absolutely necessary."

https://twitter.com/JudgeCortez/status/1279201406675755008

... Houston Health Department Health Authority Dr. David Persse said the city had reached a 25% positivity rate.

"The virus is very prevalent in the community," Persse said, adding that there were more than 1,200 people in Houston hospitals with more than 500 of them in the ICU due to complications from the coronavirus. "The virus is very much out there," Persse said, "It's very much actively spreading."

In Harris County, which encompasses Houston and is the most populous county in Texas, at least two hospitals are "pretty much at maximum capacity," Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner said Wednesday.

"The threat ... Covid-19 poses to our community right now is higher than it has been. There is a severe and uncontrolled spread between our families, friends, and communities," Turner said. "And we need to slow it down, so that it doesn't overwhelm our health care delivery system."

---------------------------------------

Florida Reports 14 Percent Coronavirus Positivity Rate, 11,458 new COVID-19 cases, Miami-Dade and Broward County Reach Record High Level of Cases
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244000032.html

Florida health officials recorded another record-breaking day, as cases of coronavirus spiked to their highest numbers yet in both Miami-Dade and Broward County on Saturday.

... Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber chastised residents for "not listening" and refusing to adhere to social distancing protocols and mask mandates that have been in effect for weeks.

"For some people, they're listening to mixed messages from Washington and they're deciding they don't need to wear a mask," Gelber told Fox News' Neil Cavuto in an interview on "Cavuto Live," Saturday.

... The current national rate of positive tests is 7.5 percent, according to Johns Hopkins University.

... The state began adding antigen test results to the case totals on Thursday. [to cloud the issue]

-----------------------------------

5 Americans who flew by private jet to Italy were reportedly denied entry due to the EU ban on visitors from countries with high coronavirus infection rates
https://www.businessinsider.com/italy-americas-tourists-unable-enter-sardinia-coronavirus-high-in-us-2020-7?amp

Five Americans who attempted to enter Italy after flying on a private jet to the island of Sardinia were rejected because of the EU's coronavirus restrictions.

A police spokesperson said they had to leave and did so 14 hours after landing.  Flight durations from Colorado to Italy start at approximately 15 hours. The travellers flew on towards Birmingham, England. 

But passengers from the US still have to quarantine for two weeks in the UK, which has left the EU, and it is not clear if the travellers disembarked from their plane there.

------------------------------------

WHO Halts Hydroxychloroquine, HIV Drugs in COVID Trials
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/global-coronavirus-cases-exceed-11-million-live-updates-200704000334633.html

The WHO said that it was discontinuing its trials of the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine and combination HIV drug lopinavir/ritonavir in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 after they failed to reduce mortality.

"These interim trial results show that hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir produce little or no reduction in the mortality of hospitalised COVID-19 patients when compared to standard of care. Solidarity trial investigators will interrupt the trials with immediate effect," the WHO said in a statement, referring to large multi-country trials that the agency is leading.

-----------------------------------

WHO reports record daily increase in global coronavirus cases

The World Health Organization has reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 212,326 in 24 hours.

The biggest increases were from the United States, Brazil and India. The previous WHO record for new cases was 189,077 on June 28. Deaths remained steady at about 5,000 a day.

---------------------------------

[morganism]

The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neandertals

"Here, we show that the risk is conferred by a genomic segment of ~50 kb that is inherited from Neandertals and occurs at a frequency of ~30% in south Asia and ~8% in Europe."

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1.full.pdf

[gerontocrat]

IDK, then why are black people dying en masse / at a rate higher than any other minority in the US?

Black people in the USA and the UK have less social mobility (i.e. racial discrimination).

So they end up in jobs that by their nature mean they are more exposed to possible infection.

So they end up in poorer neighbourhoods and have been exposed to greater air pollution (vehicles, smokestack industries). Thus there is a far greater prevalence of existing health conditions (asthma, lung conditions etc etc etc).

A double whammy - more chances of being exposed to the virus, and more likely to be badly affected.

The Office for National Statistics have done the study showing which occupations have the highest risk (not Doctors & Nurses) and which racial groups have those occupations. Demonstrating the obvious.
Public Health England also did a study, but their Terms of Reference excluded looking at air (and other) pollution - howls of outrage fro academia.

Covid-19 has exposed yet more reasons for the "Black Lives Matter" movement.

[vox_mundi]

Experts Say Coronavirus is Spreading Through ‘Airborne Transmission’ — and There Could Be Major Implications
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-1-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html

The coronavirus is finding new victims worldwide, in bars and restaurants, offices, markets and casinos, giving rise to frightening clusters of infection that increasingly confirm what many scientists have been saying for months: The virus lingers in the air indoors, infecting those nearby.

The World Health Organization was warned in an open letter sent by 239 scientists from 32 countries that COVID-19 is being spread through airborne transmission, The New York Times reported Saturday.

“If airborne transmission is a significant factor in the pandemic, especially in crowded spaces with poor ventilation, the consequences for containment will be significant. Masks may be needed indoors, even in socially distant settings. Health care workers may need N95 masks that filter out even the smallest respiratory droplets as they care for coronavirus patients,” the newspaper explained.

“Ventilation systems in schools, nursing homes, residences and businesses may need to minimize recirculating air and add powerful new filters. Ultraviolet lights may be needed to kill viral particles floating in tiny droplets indoors.”

The debate is largely over the distinction between respiratory droplets or aerosols.

But in an open letter to the W.H.O., 239 scientists in 32 countries have outlined the evidence showing that smaller particles can infect people, and are calling for the agency to revise its recommendations. The researchers plan to publish their letter in a scientific journal next week.

“Whether carried aloft by large droplets that zoom through the air after a sneeze, or by much smaller exhaled droplets that may glide the length of a room, these experts said, the coronavirus is borne through air and can infect people when inhaled,” the newspaper explained.

“The World Health Organization has long held that the coronavirus is spread primarily by large respiratory droplets that, once expelled by infected people in coughs and sneezes, fall quickly to the floor,” the newspaper explained.

“Even in its latest update on the coronavirus, released June 29, the W.H.O. said airborne transmission of the virus is possible only after medical procedures that produce aerosols, or droplets smaller than 5 microns,” The Times explained. “Proper ventilation and N95 masks are of concern only in those circumstances, according to the W.H.O. Instead, its infection control guidance, before and during this pandemic, has heavily promoted the importance of handwashing as a primary prevention strategy, even though there is limited evidence for transmission of the virus from surfaces.”

The newspaper interviewed nearly 20 scientists for the story.

... Dr. Morawska and others pointed to several incidents that indicate airborne transmission of the virus, particularly in poorly ventilated and crowded indoor spaces. They said the W.H.O. was making an artificial distinction between tiny aerosols and larger droplets, even though infected people produce both.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-circulating-air-may-have-spread-covid-19-to-1-500-german-meat-plant-staff-12014156

-----------------------------------

Trump Claims 99% of US Covid-19 Cases are 'Totally Harmless' as Infections Surge
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/05/trump-claims-99-of-us-covid-19-cases-are-totally-harmless-as-infections-surge

... It was unclear how the president arrived at the “99%” harmless figure.

... Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, warned this week: “I think it’s pretty obvious that we are not going in the right direction.”

... According to Reuters during the first four days of July alone, a total of 14 US states have posted daily record increases in the number of individuals testing positive for Covid-19.

And in a further sign the virus is spreading, at least 18 states, including the three most highly populated - California, Texas and Florida - have posted ominous rates of infection as a percentage of diagnostic tests over the past two weeks.

The World Health Organization considers positivity rates above 5% to be concerning, and widely watched data from Johns Hopkins University shows at least 18 states with average rates over the past two weeks exceeding that level and climbing.

Eleven states averaged double-digit rates over the past seven days Arizona (26%), Florida (18%), Nevada (16%), South Carolina (15%), Alabama (15%), Texas (14.5%), Mississippi (14%), Georgia (13%), Idaho 11%), Kansas (10%) and Utah (10%). That was up from four states with double-digit rates two weeks ago.

Even in California, which led the nation with statewide workplace closures and stay-at-home orders issued on March 19, the positivity rate has crept up to an average of 7% over the past week.

[blumenkraft]

With some viral infections, you don't develop immunity. When you catch it a second time, the illness might be even more severe.

It's becoming more and more apparent that Covid-19 might be such an illness.

Also, the support groups for the 'long-hauler' are growing in a concerning pace. Thousands of people never recovered from the disease. This is no longer a fringe phenomenon.

I can't help thinking even the pessimists have underestimated the severity of this virus.

[oren]

With some viral infections, you don't develop immunity. When you catch it a second time, the illness might be even more severe.

It's becoming more and more apparent that Covid-19 might be such an illness.

This is the nightmare scenario. However, is this really becoming apparent? I guess we will find out more in the coming months, as people who were infected in the first wave are exposed to the second and third waves. But I haven't seen evidence yet that such a reinfection has happened.

[El Cid]

With some viral infections, you don't develop immunity. When you catch it a second time, the illness might be even more severe.

It's becoming more and more apparent that Covid-19 might be such an illness.

No, it's NOT becoming apparent. All the research I have read has shown that once infected you have immunity for a while. Nobody knows how long that immunity lasts. We haven't got the data for that. All we know is that it lasts AT LEAST six months. Maybe you get immunity for life, maybe for a year. Noone knows yet. And it is impossible to know because the virus has been around only for a short time, so you don't have and can't have any data on that.

[blumenkraft]

All the research I have read has shown that once infected you have immunity for a while.

Yes, but this is sadly not contradictory to what i said. We don't have long term studies since there is no 'long term' yet.

Sure, the reinfection cases i heard of are indeed anecdotal and not at all proof, but they are there. I'm very concerned about it. Everyone should be.

[Tom_Mazanec]

My guardian cousin has type O (lucky guy). I have type B (rats!).

[Sam]

El Cid,

The literature to date suggests that immunity among those who recover from severe disease fails at about 10% per month. For those with less severe disease it falls off faster. And for those asymptomatic, there appears to be little duration; though they don’t seem to suffer severe disease for what ever reason, whether genetic or other. 

This is not at all surprising for an RNA virus. And vaccine derived immunity is generally much less effective and much less durable than recovering from the disease. With an 85% vaccination effectiveness and an immunity fall off exceeding 10% per month, even without the virus mutating, everyone will need to be vaccinated every 6 months to a year just to provide sufficient immunity in the population to squelch the major virus spread. And that will not be sufficient to extirpate it.

With the D614G variant now displacing the D variant, communicability is reported to be 3 to 9 times as great, though with similar outcomes. At the same time, there has been an unexplained shift to lower death rates (circa 1% from 4.65%).

For the displacement, it is not yet clear whether this is a) displacement, b) reassortment with selective advantage, c) convergent evolution, or some combination of these or other unknown factors.

For the fatality rate decline, it is not clear whether this is from a) the shift to D614G,  b) shifting demographics for those sickened (younger), or c) something else such as older folks being more isolated and younger being more reckless, or something entirely different.

What is being observed is a whole lot more young folks in critical conditions in ICUs and other critical care facilities, and a lot more dying. In Houston and other cities the hospitals are now at saturation.

If before we had an Rt of 0.95, with a 3-9 fold increase in infectivity and no change in behavior, we now have an R0 of 2.45-8.55. (Chicken pox levels of transfer). If that doesn’t scare you, you simply aren’t paying attention.

COVID was an airborne hazard. Now there are strong assertions that the virus is airborne. That might mean the D614G variant is more dangerous as an airborne pathogen. Or, it may just mean that health authorities are beginning to freak out (justifiably) and are trying to make clear to people that they simply must wear masks.

To that point, there are not just the people and political problems in getting people to wear masks. There is the added problem that people in general fundamentally do not understand what masks do, and how they work, and more importantly how they fail. In my own limited excursions out into the world I saw people without masks, people with wholly ineffective masks, people with masks pulled down exposing their noses, and people pulling down their masks to talk.

What those show is an utter lack of basic knowledge or care. In many cases it seems that people are wearing masks more like a talisman or fashion accessory, not as a life saving functional piece of safety gear.

Lacking that basic knowledge, you can guess just how inadequate people’s actions are with contact transfer. Sheesh.

Beyond all of these, we have known since the beginning that 6 feet is not a magic number for distancing. It simply reduces the probability of transfer greatly. Due to particle sizes of droplets and settling velocities and other air phenomenon, infective particles can easily travel 20 plus feet, and have been recorded as causing infections at those distances, albeit at much lower frequencies.

Vastly more important is whether the space is indoors or out and what the air movement is. The particles that can and do transfer infection can hang in the air for hours. Outdoors the airflow dynamics, UV exposure, humidity and particulate levels leading to aggregation and settling all work to greatly lower the risk of transfer. That does not mean the risks go to zero. 

In the US, we had a horrible set of conditions going into the holiday. Many health departments seem to have gone to minimum staffing over the long weekend. That greatly blinds us to what is happening at precisely the time that a wide array of factors are coinciding to cause a dramatic increase in infections.

Do not be surprised by an absolute explosion in rates 7-12 days from now.  And equally do not be surprised by a surge in deaths 6-9 days after that.

It should be clear to people by now that “leveling the curve” was a failed plan from the outset. With that not achieving broad success, some key players now argue we must simply live with the virus, go back to work, and let the old folks die. That is unimaginably stupid. Yet, it is also an expected outcome from picking a bad approach in the first place. Economic pressures were always going to become a major factor.

Yet, the dynamics remain he same. Simply sacrificing a large portion of society also will not work, and will lead to maximum deaths, disabilities AND economic destruction. The worst of all worlds. Yet that is where we seem to be headed.

Until people can grasp that people are not in charge, that the virus is, I see little hope for resolution. Without that understanding and the willingness to take on this problem properly with maximum controls, we are consigned to an on-going tragedy that lasts many years, and perhaps a decade.

People are holding out hope that a vaccine will end this. That is I fear a left over belief from a bygone age in a magic bullet solution. And that is as daft as believing that it will just magically go away.

It won’t just magically go away. There will be massive societal and personal pain ahead. And who knows, if we are just stupid enough - or more properly if we continue to be just stupid enough - perhaps we can look forward to the full collapse and disintegration (literally to break up into parts) of the American empire.

Sam

[blumenkraft]

Glad to see you back, Sam! 

[oren]

Yeah Sam, good to hear from you again.

[Sam]

I should also add....

Given the absolutely reckless and irresponsible, ignorant and arrogant responses of the President and the Vice President, (not to mention his family members and cabinet heads), there is a high probability that both men will contract the virus in the relatively near future. Given their ages and general health, there is a small but real chance the Vice President will be incapacitated and possibly die of the virus; and there is a much higher chance that the President will be hospitalized in critical care with a significant chance of dying.

As a result, we face an uncertain period over the next several months. We could well see the Vice President become the acting or permanent President. And there is a chance we might see the Speaker of the House become the first woman President at least until one or the other of the President and Vice President recover sufficiently to resume the office.

Needless to say, should that happen, we should expect to see the entire cabinet fired and prosecuted, and all of the document requests and subpoenas by the House instantly fulfilled. Additionally, all pending nominations would be gone and all executive orders cancelled, as well as all of Trumps personal and business tax returns being turned over to the House. 

This is not a prediction. It is a real possibility. If you thing things are chaotic in the US now, just imagine what they could be under that scenario.

[greylib]

Sam:

A tempting scenario, but it ain't going to happen. The Senate Republicans refused to allow Obama to be President for his final year, on the grounds that "he's only temporary - he'll be gone soon - let's wait for the incoming President."

You can guess what they'd make of a temporary, unelected President "trying to throw her weight around."

[blumenkraft]

This is not a prediction.

Damn!

[El Cid]

Sam,

1. There was no move from 4.65% mortality to 1%. It was 1% all along.
2. R has not changed materially since the new mutation
3. Where did you get the "10% monthly falloff rate"? All I read said that once you have immunity, you have immunity

blumenkraft,

"it is becoming apparent" means that it is obvious <that there is no acquired immunity>, but it is NOT obvious at all. Now you tweaked your original statment, saying that it may be possible that there is no long term immunity. But that is not what you originally said. It is a possibility, we do not know yet.

[blumenkraft]

"it is becoming apparent"

But i said "more and more apparent".

Please see it as a relative term in this context. It wasn't meant in a sense of 'there is obvious proof'. Language barrier i guess.

Replace 'apparent' with 'visible'. I guess this is more precise.

[pietkuip]

My guardian cousin has type O (lucky guy). I have type B (rats!).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-neanderthals.html

Just last week, an international group of scientists called the Covid-19 Host Genetics Initiative released a new set of data downplaying the risk of blood type. “The jury is still out on ABO,” said Mark Daly, a geneticist at Harvard Medical School who is a member of the initiative.

 

[vox_mundi]

Montana's Congressman Greg Gianforte Suspends In-Person Campaigning After Wife, Running Mate Attended Event With Kimberly Guilfoyle
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/montanas-greg-gianforte-suspends-in-person-campaigning-after-wife-running-mate-attended-event-with-kimberly-guilfoyle/ar-BB16l2F3

The Associated Press news agency is quoting a Montana newspaper as reporting that the wife and the running mate of Republican governor candidate Greg Gianforte, as well as several other top Republican officials, were possibly exposed to the coronavirus while attending an event with the girlfriend of President Donald Trump's eldest son.

The Bozeman Daily Chronicle says Gianforte's wife, Susan, and lieutenant governor candidate Kristen Juras were at a Trump fundraising event Wednesday with Kimberly Guilfoyle, the girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr.

The New York Times reports that Guilfoyle was diagnosed with the coronavirus on Friday. Greg Gianforte is a congressman from Montana. He did not attend the event.

-----------------------------------

[Tom_Mazanec]

What’s At Risk: An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/whats-at-risk-an-18-month-view-of-a-post-covid-world/

As the world continues to grapple with the effects of COVID-19, no part of society seems to be left unscathed. Fears are surmounting around the economy’s health, and dramatic changes in life as we know it are also underway.

In today’s graphic, we use data from a World Economic Forum survey of 347 risk analysts on how they rank the likelihood of major risks we face in the aftermath of the pandemic.

What are the most likely risks for the world over the next year and a half?

The Most Likely Risks
In the report, a “risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition with the potential for significant negative impacts on various countries and industries. The 31 risks have been grouped into five major categories:

Economic: 10 risks
Societal: 9 risks
Geopolitical: 6 risks
Technological: 4 risks
Environmental: 2 risks
Among these, risk analysts rank economic factors high on their list, but the far-reaching impacts of the remaining factors are not to be overlooked either.

[kassy]

With some viral infections, you don't develop immunity. When you catch it a second time, the illness might be even more severe.

It's becoming more and more apparent that Covid-19 might be such an illness.

As others pointed out this is probably not true. This is the sort of claim that needs back up, preferably a paper and barring that the things you see in numbers that make you think it is so.

[Sam]

J Innate Immun. 2020 Jan; 12(1): 4–20.
Published online 2019 Oct 14. doi: 10.1159/000503030
PMCID: PMC6959104
PMID: 31610541
Innate Immune Evasion by Human Respiratory RNA Viruses

Marjolein Kikkert*

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6959104/

[Sam]

Applied Mathematics and Computation
Volume 349, 15 May 2019, Pages 62-80
Applied Mathematics and Computation
The effect of reinfection with the same serotype on dengue transmission dynamics
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2018.12.022

[Sam]

Kenneth McIntosh, Pathogenesis of Severe Acute Respiratory Infections in the Developing World: Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Parainfluenza Viruses, Reviews of Infectious Diseases, Volume 13, Issue Supplement_6, May-June 1991, Pages S492–S500, https://doi.org/10.1093/clinids/13.Supplement_6.S492