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When will the yukon river break up at Dawson city?

April 25th or earlier
2 (6.9%)
April 26 - April 30
8 (27.6%)
May 1 - May 5
10 (34.5%)
May 6 - May 10
7 (24.1%)
May 11 - May 15
2 (6.9%)
May 16 - May 20
0 (0%)
May 21 or later
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 28

Voting closed: April 23, 2021, 10:25:39 AM

Author Topic: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll  (Read 3945 times)

grixm

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2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« on: April 17, 2021, 10:25:39 AM »

grixm

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2021, 10:33:04 AM »
My guess is May 6th, 18:00

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2021, 10:37:36 AM »
In the Yukon for the next 10 days GFS says high pressure will be in charge, so I also say
- it is going to be dry,
- it is going to be sunny,
- average temperatures a bit above avaerge,

But really cold nights and warm(ish) sunny days. So a bit earlier than last year. April 30th.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

The Walrus

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2021, 01:26:54 PM »
The recent month-long cold spell has created very thick ice on the river.  I suspect it will be later this year.  May 14.

karl dubhe2

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2021, 04:07:09 PM »
Without doubt, I'll be wrong this time.   :)

Before April 25.   

be cause

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2021, 04:12:14 PM »
   05.05.2020 .. ? .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. you gotta laugh .. :)

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2021, 09:42:10 PM »
I chose the bin May 1-May 5. But this is a pure guess.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

oren

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2021, 10:14:34 PM »
Same.

pearscot

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2021, 09:08:50 PM »
I'm guessing May 9th this year (I put in the 5/6-5/10)! Last year I guessed the 5th, but think it will be a little bit later. Always an interesting event to watch unfold.
pls!

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2021, 03:30:26 AM »
I placed my first bet for today, which let's you know how much I know...

The Walrus

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2021, 02:47:25 PM »
I placed my first bet for today, which let's you know how much I know...

Unless that is the new "white water."  lol

pearscot

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2021, 10:19:29 PM »
the drama, the hype, and the lore of this event is hard to handle!!!!
pls!

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2021, 03:47:00 AM »
Colder today- we've been getting meteorological whiplash, bouncing from record cold to record warmth and now back below seasonal norms. I'm so confused....

The Walrus

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2021, 01:22:24 PM »
Spring tends to have that effect.  When rapidly heated air from the south confronts the frozen tundra of the north, wild temperature (and weather) swings can occur.  It takes a lot of heat to melt all that snow and ice, and when the sun stops shining and the southerly winds stop blowing, the heat dissipates rapidly.

grixm

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2021, 02:21:28 PM »
Poll is now closed and results visible (but you can still make a precise guess in a comment) :)

be cause

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2021, 03:11:03 PM »
Damn .. I never even noticed the poll .. just made my prediction and buggered off .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. you gotta laugh .. :)

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2021, 02:20:17 AM »
Yukon residents who buy the winning ice pool ticket can win thousands of Can$!
I reckon the biggest bin on this poll will capture breakup.
The first thrush returned today....

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2021, 10:15:38 AM »
I said 30th April - to be precise I meant to say 7.30 pm AKDT time.

Note that at 7.30 pm AKDT time on the 30th April it will be 4.30 am British Summer Time, or 3.30 am Greenwich Mean Time (UTC if you wish) of the 1st May.

So whose clock are we using for this poll? I want to know
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

grixm

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2021, 01:25:31 PM »

So whose clock are we using for this poll? I want to know

The website will report the breakup time in their local time, so I guess that's the easiest.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2021, 05:51:06 AM »

So whose clock are we using for this poll? I want to know

The website will report the breakup time in their local time, so I guess that's the easiest.
The clock belongs to the local chapter of the Imperial Order of Daughters of the Empire (!).
It is an ordinary electric analog clock.
It is attached to the side of the First Nations  Cultural Centre, which is conveniently located on the river bank.
A cable is stretched from a post on the river to the clock.
When the ice moves, a circuit is broken when the cable is pulled out of the clock.
The clock stops.
It  works really well, except in 2019 when the ice under the tripod rotted out several days before the main river moved.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2021, 01:56:58 PM »
I said 30th April - to be precise I meant to say 7.30 pm AKDT time.

So who's a clever boy then?

emojis for smirk, arrogance, self-satisfaction etc to be added.

https://yukonriverbreakup.com/
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

grixm

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2021, 02:00:09 PM »
I said 30th April - to be precise I meant to say 7.30 pm AKDT time.

So who's a clever boy then?

emojis for smirk, arrogance, self-satisfaction etc to be added.

https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

It hasn't broken up yet, if that's what you meant ;)

When it breaks up, the date will be shown here. The date below the photo is the date the photo was taken.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2021, 03:20:05 PM »
I said 30th April - to be precise I meant to say 7.30 pm AKDT time.

So who's a clever boy then?

emojis for smirk, arrogance, self-satisfaction etc to be added.

https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

It hasn't broken up yet, if that's what you meant ;)

When it breaks up, the date will be shown here. The date below the photo is the date the photo was taken.
Pride goes before a fall.

"But the tripod has gone. the game is over. I won the game - even if by a technicality?" 
- he begged as he wept
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

grixm

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2021, 03:47:02 PM »
I remember several similar misunderstandings last year. It's not the most intuitive website  ;D

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #24 on: May 02, 2021, 02:40:28 AM »
I remember several similar misunderstandings last year. It's not the most intuitive website  ;D
Huh. That's a good point. I had never thought of that.
If the heading was changed from:
"Official 2021 breakup: ..."
To:
"Official 2021 breakup: TBA"
Would that help?
Any other suggestions?

oren

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #25 on: May 02, 2021, 08:42:00 AM »
Just stress in the first post that there two separate bets, the Yukon and the Tanana, and this thread is about the Yukon. (Hopefully I am not mistaken).

grixm

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #26 on: May 02, 2021, 08:47:31 AM »
I remember several similar misunderstandings last year. It's not the most intuitive website  ;D
Huh. That's a good point. I had never thought of that.
If the heading was changed from:
"Official 2021 breakup: ..."
To:
"Official 2021 breakup: TBA"
Would that help?
Any other suggestions?

I think that would help, yes. And/or maybe prefix the other date with "Photo taken on: " something like that.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #27 on: May 02, 2021, 09:23:56 AM »
I remember several similar misunderstandings last year. It's not the most intuitive website  ;D
Huh. That's a good point. I had never thought of that.
If the heading was changed from:
"Official 2021 breakup: ..."
To:
"Official 2021 breakup: TBA"
Would that help?
Any other suggestions?

I think that would help, yes. And/or maybe prefix the other date with "Photo taken on: " something like that.
I am still weeping. It's too late for helpful suggestions.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #28 on: May 02, 2021, 11:55:00 PM »
Official 2021 breakup: TBA or not yet would both help. Got me last year.

If you want to go fancy add a current temp/ forecasted temp (should be free from your national meteorology?). This would not really help but it just looks nice plus it is an easy way to check at the end of the season.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2021, 02:41:55 AM »
Official 2021 breakup: TBA or not yet would both help. Got me last year.

If you want to go fancy add a current temp/ forecasted temp (should be free from your national meteorology?). This would not really help but it just looks nice plus it is an easy way to check at the end of the season.
Thanks  for the feedback folks, I'll try to get the fixes done before the river goes out and nobody cares any more!
I'm thinking the river will go within 48hours...

be cause

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2021, 10:37:57 AM »
  .. but that would be a day too soon! :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. you gotta laugh .. :)

grixm

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2021, 10:47:00 AM »
It looks like it has collapsed upstream but still not downstream by the tripod.

kassy

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #32 on: May 03, 2021, 09:50:26 PM »
By next year is fine too.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2021, 01:59:53 AM »
Gotta be tomorrow...for sure right?
At 17:30  ;D

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #34 on: May 04, 2021, 09:03:10 PM »
Water is flowing over the ice to within 50m of the tripod, the front area of broken ice floes is steadily advancing; breakup shall be today, May 4th. This image from 11:30 UTC 7
I have a bet in for 17:30.... ;D

grixm

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #35 on: May 05, 2021, 02:51:26 PM »
Still no? One more day and I will be correct. Go Go Go!

icy voyeur2

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #36 on: May 06, 2021, 10:22:04 PM »
Still no? One more day and I will be correct. Go Go Go!

looks like it's moving  http://dawson.meteomac.com/

crandles

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #37 on: May 07, 2021, 02:38:59 AM »
Official 2021 breakup: May 6 @ 10:29

 ;D

Sebastian Jones

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Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Reply #38 on: May 07, 2021, 07:37:45 AM »
As ever, breakup is a topic of intense interest to locals. As ever, some get just a little too close up of a view.