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What will NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average be?

Above 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
2 (5.6%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
11 (30.6%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
12 (33.3%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
4 (11.1%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
2 (5.6%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
4 (11.1%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
1 (2.8%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 36

Voting closed: July 10, 2021, 11:58:48 PM

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Author Topic: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll  (Read 1767 times)

Juan C. García

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NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: June 30, 2021, 11:58:48 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two ASI extent polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum [provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP)].

Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2020 (in million km2):

Year      Extent
2000        6.25
2001        6.73
2002        5.83
2003        6.12
2004        5.98
2005        5.50
2006        5.86
2007        4.27
2008        4.69
2009        5.26
2010        4.87
2011        4.56
2012        3.57
2013        5.21
2014        5.22
2015        4.62
2016        4.53
2017        4.82
2018        4.79
2019        4.36
2020 (*)   4.00

* Corrected by NSIDC. According to last year ASIF posts, it was 3.92 million km2.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3229.0.html

From lowest to highest:
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2021, 12:02:15 AM »
Voting on the 3.75-4.25 million km2 range.
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2021, 07:52:34 AM »
I stay with my June poll value of a NSIDC Sep average between 3.75 and 4.25 M km², probably at the upper end of this interval. High confidence.
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oren

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2021, 01:34:05 PM »
I am keeping my June vote of 4.00-4.50, looking more solid now.
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trm1958

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2021, 10:11:11 PM »
Figured we would be worse than last year, so picked 3.50 - 4.00
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KenB

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2021, 11:23:14 PM »
Quote from: Stephan on July 03, 2021, 07:52:34 AM
I stay with my June poll value of a NSIDC Sep average between 3.75 and 4.25 M km², probably at the upper end of this interval. High confidence.

Same for me.
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icefisher

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2021, 01:30:02 AM »
Thinking 2021 will end up between 2016 and 2019.  Going with 4.43.
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gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2021, 11:12:26 PM »
After the large sea ice extent losses in early July, the picture has changed somewhat.

The projection of the NSIDC September average extent (assuming 10 yr average daily extent losses from now) is 4.14 million km2,  0.15 million km2 below the long-term linear trend.

I'm going for 3.75 to 4.25 million km2, mainly because my guess is that the rotten state of much of the ice against unfavourable conditions for sea ice loss will cancel each other out.

Pretty pictures attached. Click to enlarge
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Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2021, 05:58:59 AM »
I am going to keep my vote on the 3.75-4.25 million km2 (2020: 2nd lowest in the middle).

Only one day left to vote or change your vote. (And make your post  ;) )
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Brigantine

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2021, 07:28:51 AM »
4.0 - 4.5

Just carrying my June entry forward.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: NSIDC 2021 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2021, 10:08:19 AM »
SIPN report for July https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2021/july

They've largely gone with the same buckets as the forum.

median 4.36
PIOMAS 4.01

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