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What will JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP) 2022 ASIE daily minimum be?

Above 5.25 million km^2
1 (2.3%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
15 (34.1%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
18 (40.9%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
4 (9.1%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
4 (9.1%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
1 (2.3%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
1 (2.3%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 44

Voting closed: Today at 03:14:23 AM

Author Topic: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll  (Read 1639 times)

Juan C. García

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JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« on: August 01, 2022, 03:14:23 AM »
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in 2022, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September mínimums have been:

Date              Min (10^6 km2)
Sep 12, 2000        6.04
Sep 17, 2001        6.55
Sep 8, 2002          5.51
Sep 18, 2003        5.93
Sep 11, 2004        5.68
Sep 21, 2005        5.18
Sep 14, 2006        5.63
Sep 17, 2007        4.07
Sep 9, 2008          4.50
Sep 12, 2009        5.05
Sep 17, 2010        4.62
Sep 10, 2011        4.27
Sep 16, 2012        3.18
Sep 12, 2013        4.81
Sep 17, 2014        4.88
Sep 14, 2015        4.26
Sep 7, 2016          4.02
Sep 9, 2017          4.47
Sep 21, 2018        4.46
Sep 17, 2019        3.96
Sep 13, 2020        3.55
Sep 12, 2021        4.61

Sorted from minimum to maximum:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2022, 03:18:24 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,738,160 KM2 as at 30-Jul-2022

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.56 million km2, 1.38 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________

Let's follow the latest Gero projection.
So, I vote on the 4.25-4.75 km2 range.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2022, 08:27:09 AM »
Along with my mood swings, 4.25-4.75.
Thank you Juan for starting the poll.

Lord M Vader

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2022, 08:35:14 AM »
And I voted for a bin higher, so 4,5-5,0 Mn km2.

Rodius

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2022, 10:52:34 AM »
I went for 4.25 to 4.75
Seems popular too.

Could it be that just as people are starting to share a close range of possibilities that the Arctic will throw a curve ball just to remind us we know bugger all?

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2022, 09:05:29 PM »
The 7 day average of daily change shows how in July sea ice daily loss was mostly below average.

This has resulted in the plume of projected sea ice extent to increase by about 0.25 million km2 from one month ago.

Also the Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) in the High Arctic (whre it matters most) continues to be  very lowe than in previous recent years and the 2010's average.

So I go for 4.25 to 4.75 million km2.



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Paul

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2022, 11:58:34 PM »
I went for 4.25 to 4.75
Seems popular too.

Could it be that just as people are starting to share a close range of possibilities that the Arctic will throw a curve ball just to remind us we know bugger all?

I voted for the most popular option also but I am wary that there could still be a twist in this melt season yet on the Atlantic side which may not affect extent numbers in a huge significant way but could be a noteworthy event.

Bruce Steele

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2022, 12:09:45 AM »
June, July and August 4.25-4.75
Season doesn’t seem to have changed pace from June.

Stephan

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2022, 07:59:54 PM »
I stayed with my bet on the 4.0 ± 0.25 M km² bin. We had slow melting in June and July. Maybe August will speed up a little bit to make up for that lag...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Icegod

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2022, 02:52:15 PM »
I'm down a peg from 4.75-5.25 to 4.5-5.0....The end of July did just enough work to take this under 5 I think. If it finishes at 5.1 or something I would not be shocked it's just not my expectation now. I'm thinking a 4.6 to 4.8 finish on the year. Similar to last season, if we get an ending like last year then we will be in the 5s......

KenB

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2022, 07:18:25 PM »
I'm moving up one bin (from 4.0 ± 0.25 to 4.25 ± 0.25).  Seems to me that time is running out for a sub-4.0 finish, though it wouldn't shock me too much. 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Brigantine

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2022, 01:07:02 AM »
My vote: 4.50-5.00 (back up 1 bin to match my June vote)

Concentration is still a bit high. There's room for dispersion to mitigate some of the remaining melt.
I may edit this prediction lower before voting closes but after thinking more about the ice remaining in Baffin/CAA and weather forecasts. (but likely the vote will stay in the same bin)

Estimated probabilities for each bin:
Mean                                   4.71           (+0.29)
Median                                4.76           (+0.29)
Highest Probability Density 4.80           (+0.26)
95% Confidence Range      3.69 - 5.32 (+0.39/+0.02)

<2.00 <0.01%
2.00-2.25 <0.01%, 2.25-2.50 <0.1%, 2.50-2.75 0.1%, 2.75-3.00 0.1%
3.00-3.25 0.4%, 3.25-3.50 0.8%, 3.50-3.75 1.6%, 3.75-4.00 2.6%
4.00-4.25 4.6%, 4.25-4.50 11.7%, 4.50-4.75 26.8%, 4.75-5.00 31.0%
5.00-5.25 16.0%, >5.25 4.3%


By rank: (Note 2022 is already down to 26th)
« Last Edit: August 08, 2022, 03:14:13 AM by Brigantine »

The Walrus

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2022, 02:40:39 PM »
The sea ice has been tracking 2013 quite closely recently.  Considering moving up one, from the 4.5-5.0 bin.

Tom Stedman

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2022, 09:20:03 PM »
About 40 days to average minimum, we're already 25 th lowest would you believe!!

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2022, 06:21:23 AM »
Let's follow the latest Gero projection.
So, I vote on the 4.25-4.75 km2 range.
Time to change my vote, half a bin up, to 4.5-5.0M km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2022, 07:34:12 AM »
Two days to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.