Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

What will JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP) 2022 ASIE daily minimum be?

Above 5.25 million km^2
1 (2.3%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
15 (34.1%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
18 (40.9%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
4 (9.1%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
4 (9.1%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
1 (2.3%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
1 (2.3%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
0 (0%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
0 (0%)
Under 2.00 million km^2
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 44

Voting closed: August 11, 2022, 03:14:23 AM

Author Topic: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll  (Read 5071 times)

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2979
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1204
  • Likes Given: 956
JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« on: August 01, 2022, 03:14:23 AM »
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in 2022, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September mínimums have been:

Date              Min (10^6 km2)
Sep 12, 2000        6.04
Sep 17, 2001        6.55
Sep 8, 2002          5.51
Sep 18, 2003        5.93
Sep 11, 2004        5.68
Sep 21, 2005        5.18
Sep 14, 2006        5.63
Sep 17, 2007        4.07
Sep 9, 2008          4.50
Sep 12, 2009        5.05
Sep 17, 2010        4.62
Sep 10, 2011        4.27
Sep 16, 2012        3.18
Sep 12, 2013        4.81
Sep 17, 2014        4.88
Sep 14, 2015        4.26
Sep 7, 2016          4.02
Sep 9, 2017          4.47
Sep 21, 2018        4.46
Sep 17, 2019        3.96
Sep 13, 2020        3.55
Sep 12, 2021        4.61

Sorted from minimum to maximum:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2979
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1204
  • Likes Given: 956
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2022, 03:18:24 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,738,160 KM2 as at 30-Jul-2022

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2022 of 4.56 million km2, 1.38 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________

Let's follow the latest Gero projection.
So, I vote on the 4.25-4.75 km2 range.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8866
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3326
  • Likes Given: 3446
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2022, 08:27:09 AM »
Along with my mood swings, 4.25-4.75.
Thank you Juan for starting the poll.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1371
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2022, 08:35:14 AM »
And I voted for a bin higher, so 4,5-5,0 Mn km2.

Rodius

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 501
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2022, 10:52:34 AM »
I went for 4.25 to 4.75
Seems popular too.

Could it be that just as people are starting to share a close range of possibilities that the Arctic will throw a curve ball just to remind us we know bugger all?

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15862
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4784
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2022, 09:05:29 PM »
The 7 day average of daily change shows how in July sea ice daily loss was mostly below average.

This has resulted in the plume of projected sea ice extent to increase by about 0.25 million km2 from one month ago.

Also the Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) in the High Arctic (whre it matters most) continues to be  very lowe than in previous recent years and the 2010's average.

So I go for 4.25 to 4.75 million km2.



"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 487
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2022, 11:58:34 PM »
I went for 4.25 to 4.75
Seems popular too.

Could it be that just as people are starting to share a close range of possibilities that the Arctic will throw a curve ball just to remind us we know bugger all?

I voted for the most popular option also but I am wary that there could still be a twist in this melt season yet on the Atlantic side which may not affect extent numbers in a huge significant way but could be a noteworthy event.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2262
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 670
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2022, 12:09:45 AM »
June, July and August 4.25-4.75
Season doesn’t seem to have changed pace from June.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2320
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 696
  • Likes Given: 407
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2022, 07:59:54 PM »
I stayed with my bet on the 4.0 ± 0.25 M km² bin. We had slow melting in June and July. Maybe August will speed up a little bit to make up for that lag...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Icegod

  • NewMembers
  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2022, 02:52:15 PM »
I'm down a peg from 4.75-5.25 to 4.5-5.0....The end of July did just enough work to take this under 5 I think. If it finishes at 5.1 or something I would not be shocked it's just not my expectation now. I'm thinking a 4.6 to 4.8 finish on the year. Similar to last season, if we get an ending like last year then we will be in the 5s......

KenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 119
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2022, 07:18:25 PM »
I'm moving up one bin (from 4.0 ± 0.25 to 4.25 ± 0.25).  Seems to me that time is running out for a sub-4.0 finish, though it wouldn't shock me too much. 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2022, 01:07:02 AM »
My vote: 4.50-5.00 (back up 1 bin to match my June vote)

Concentration is still a bit high. There's room for dispersion to mitigate some of the remaining melt.
I may edit this prediction lower before voting closes but after thinking more about the ice remaining in Baffin/CAA and weather forecasts. (but likely the vote will stay in the same bin)

Estimated probabilities for each bin:
Mean                                   4.71           (+0.29)
Median                                4.76           (+0.29)
Highest Probability Density 4.80           (+0.26)
95% Confidence Range      3.69 - 5.32 (+0.39/+0.02)

<2.00 <0.01%
2.00-2.25 <0.01%, 2.25-2.50 <0.1%, 2.50-2.75 0.1%, 2.75-3.00 0.1%
3.00-3.25 0.4%, 3.25-3.50 0.8%, 3.50-3.75 1.6%, 3.75-4.00 2.6%
4.00-4.25 4.6%, 4.25-4.50 11.7%, 4.50-4.75 26.8%, 4.75-5.00 31.0%
5.00-5.25 16.0%, >5.25 4.3%


By rank: (Note 2022 is already down to 26th)
« Last Edit: August 08, 2022, 03:14:13 AM by Brigantine »

The Walrus

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2080
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 408
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2022, 02:40:39 PM »
The sea ice has been tracking 2013 quite closely recently.  Considering moving up one, from the 4.5-5.0 bin.

Tom Stedman

  • New ice
  • Posts: 27
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2022, 09:20:03 PM »
About 40 days to average minimum, we're already 25 th lowest would you believe!!

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2979
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1204
  • Likes Given: 956
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2022, 06:21:23 AM »
Let's follow the latest Gero projection.
So, I vote on the 4.25-4.75 km2 range.
Time to change my vote, half a bin up, to 4.5-5.0M km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2979
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1204
  • Likes Given: 956
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2022, 07:34:12 AM »
Two days to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Icegod

  • NewMembers
  • New ice
  • Posts: 15
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2022, 05:32:10 PM »
I was at 4.75-5.25 to start voting in June.....carried it in July.....thought maybe that 2 weeks of melting at the end of July would push the minimum under 5 so I moved to the 4.5 to 5 bin....Ladies and Gents it's passed closing by a few hours but I am leaning more towards my original vote than what I voted a couple days ago. Given the basins been cold all year refreeze should be beginning really soon in the high arctic. I'm having difficulty seeing this under 5 now. There's zero momentum for melting to happen.....It's already snowing good in Alaska above 2,000 ft.....

Tom Stedman

  • New ice
  • Posts: 27
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2022, 11:29:31 PM »
I was at 4.75-5.25 to start voting in June.....carried it in July.....thought maybe that 2 weeks of melting at the end of July would push the minimum under 5 so I moved to the 4.5 to 5 bin....Ladies and Gents it's passed closing by a few hours but I am leaning more towards my original vote than what I voted a couple days ago. Given the basins been cold all year refreeze should be beginning really soon in the high arctic. I'm having difficulty seeing this under 5 now. There's zero momentum for melting to happen.....It's already snowing good in Alaska above 2,000 ft.....
We might cross the 6 million mark tomorrow morning, another million doesn't seem like a lot, though there's little melt momentum.
Having said that we probably will loose extent in the CAA and Baffin bay. The Beaufort and Chukchi look like they only need a strong southerly to loose a few 100k.
Another month will tell all!

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2022, 07:06:19 AM »
My vote: 4.50-5.00 (back up 1 bin to match my June vote) [...] I may edit this prediction lower before voting closes

Estimated probabilities for each bin:
Mean                                   4.71           (+0.29)
Median                                4.76           (+0.29)
Highest Probability Density 4.80           (+0.26)
95% Confidence Range      3.69 - 5.32 (+0.39/+0.02)

Nope, I was happy with it. And now the Gero projections are getting close too.

This graph updated and zoomed in slightly:

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1179
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 172
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2022, 01:08:17 AM »
The EC 12Z forecast is fairly benign for the ice. I still think extent should go below 5 mill km2 as the marginal ice extent is large and a minimum of stirring and compaction will set the final extent under 5M.

This season, still, represents a 10-year long hiatus in the decline of September ice extent. It seems that rather than a slow transition we got a stagnation. My belief now (I emphasize belief) is that another abrupt transition will bring the Arctic to a new record low soon.

 I remember very often the Q. Ding et al paper that was discussed in this forum on 2016 or 2017. Internal variability may be playing a stronger role than what is recognized. When this internal variability reverses its sign and adds up to invariably growing external forcing, a new abrupt change will happen.

Richard Rathbone

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1513
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 321
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2022, 10:49:41 AM »
The EC 12Z forecast is fairly benign for the ice. I still think extent should go below 5 mill km2 as the marginal ice extent is large and a minimum of stirring and compaction will set the final extent under 5M.

This season, still, represents a 10-year long hiatus in the decline of September ice extent. It seems that rather than a slow transition we got a stagnation. My belief now (I emphasize belief) is that another abrupt transition will bring the Arctic to a new record low soon.

 I remember very often the Q. Ding et al paper that was discussed in this forum on 2016 or 2017. Internal variability may be playing a stronger role than what is recognized. When this internal variability reverses its sign and adds up to invariably growing external forcing, a new abrupt change will happen.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1920.550.html

There are a couple of those papers discussed in that thread, of which I reckon the second of which is a lot more convincing than the first. A 60 year cycle wouldn't reverse into another episode of rapid ice loss until 2040 or so. I think there's still quite a lot of flattening in the seasonal anomaly to happen before the hiatus phase is over and it returns to the rapid September loss phase.

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2022, 11:34:51 AM »
Updated. 15 days to the earliest minimum date.

EDIT: Now corrected. 4 decadal averages, 4 missing values. I thought it was strange how much empty space there was at the bottom! Thanks for alerting me.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2022, 02:57:17 PM by Brigantine »

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8866
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3326
  • Likes Given: 3446
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2022, 01:13:49 PM »
Thanks Brigantine, I've always thought that's a great chart.
Note the lowest 4 years are missing from this version.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15862
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4784
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2022, 02:06:53 PM »
Just for interest here is the plume of projections of the JAXA extent daily minimum from the previous 10 years remaining melt.

All 10 years fall between 4,5 & 4.9 million km2 where the vast majority of votes were cast.
However just maybe, depending how soupy and slushy the large low concentration areas are, with a little bit more warmth and favourable winds and sea ice drift leading to compaction, the minimum could drop below 4.5 million, giving much kudos to those very few souls who stuck their necks out for such a low figure.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #24 on: August 28, 2022, 04:48:10 PM »
5 days to go until the earliest date of minimum. Already down into the 5.00 - 5.25 bin

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8866
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3326
  • Likes Given: 3446
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #25 on: August 31, 2022, 11:11:48 AM »
At 5008k we are past the 2009 min and most probably one day away from the <5M bin.

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #26 on: September 02, 2022, 08:53:26 AM »
1997 reached minimum on this date. From more recent experience, minimum will be at least another 6 days away.
2022 is just barely still in 15th place - and counting.
Indeed, we are into 4.75 - 5.00 since yesterday. So my June & August votes were not too low

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2320
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 696
  • Likes Given: 407
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #27 on: September 02, 2022, 09:04:40 PM »
Thank you, brigantine, for the regular updates. Really enjoy them.
When 2022 will have a longer melting season than average, I think it still can catch up the final result of 2018 ?!?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #28 on: September 07, 2022, 10:10:47 AM »
Thanks for the feedback!

2016's minimum was tomorrow ('s date), so depending on the weather it could be any day now. But it sounds like the weather's not quite ready yet.

Down 16k more and my July vote will also be in the green, and from where we are today anything other than 4.50 - 4.75 would be a surprise. 75% of all [August] voters are getting the champagne ready [EDIT: and 38% of June, 26% of July voters]
« Last Edit: September 08, 2022, 02:35:29 AM by Brigantine »

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8866
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3326
  • Likes Given: 3446
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #29 on: September 08, 2022, 07:34:48 AM »
With 4730k, the <4.75M bin is finally right. This year was kind of a slow burner, I wonder if it has more losses in store or the refreeze will finally hit.

KenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 119
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #30 on: September 08, 2022, 05:57:10 PM »
With 4730k, the <4.75M bin is finally right. This year was kind of a slow burner, I wonder if it has more losses in store or the refreeze will finally hit.

Just noting here that it seems very certain that either 33 or 22 out of 44 votes will be correct, depending on whether the minimum falls above or below 4.5M, respectively.
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #31 on: September 12, 2022, 01:05:21 PM »
It seems largely in the hands of randomness now. Will 2022 be 13th, 12th, or 11th?

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15862
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4784
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #32 on: September 16, 2022, 01:16:35 PM »
If remaining sea ice extent loss matches that of 2 out of the last 10 years (2018 & 2019) then the minimum would drop below 4.5 million km2.

This would be a disappointment to 15 voters.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #33 on: September 18, 2022, 10:03:44 AM »
As a 4.50 - 5.00 voter in both June and August, as well as in the interests of avoiding another top-10 year...

If the melting season would stop now, that'd be great

[Stage of grief #3: Bargaining]
« Last Edit: September 18, 2022, 10:09:17 AM by Brigantine »

Brigantine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 331
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 294
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #34 on: September 24, 2022, 03:51:35 AM »
The prayers were answered. No change to the minimums table since the above!

And I'm declaring victory in the NSIDC polls too

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8866
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3326
  • Likes Given: 3446
Re: JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll
« Reply #35 on: September 24, 2022, 08:58:11 AM »
Indeed, minimum was at 4.523k km2, with 3 years within 66k below and 2 years within 100k above, smack in the middle of the bell curve of the August poll (though higher rhan the previous polls). These are the "new normal" years, a good result these days, as the alternatives are the "normal low" years around 4.2-4.3, "very low" years around 4, and "extreme low" years at 3.2-3.5.
The "new high" years at 4.8-5 are still within probabilistic reach, the clusters above are sadly in fantasyland.

Thank you to all participants.