Greenland 2022-23 SMB, melting and GRACE mass

[gerontocrat]

It's a new Greenland year as far as DMI is concerned for SMB data,  and I have NOT set up new graphs. Which is a pity, because on the 2nd September unusually intense warmth rain and melt entered Western Greenland. The melt (on 21% of Greenland's surface area) may well be a record for this day.

It also looks like the melt event will last until Monday, with maximum melt today (3rd Sept) and tomorrow (4th Sept)

click images to enlarge

[oren]

Thanks for starting the new thread Gero, and in general for keeping us up to date.

[gerontocrat]

Melt such as this should not be happening as late as the 3rd September.
This warmth & wet (much of it rain) looks like continuing for a couple more days.

All part of the transition of the Arctic into a warmer, wetter place.

[gerontocrat]

Melt even higher on this day - 4th September.

[sidd]

Thats a disturbing picture, almost all of south dome including the saddle at 67N is melting. And this is quite late in the year ...

sidd

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 5th Sep

Another day of extreme melt, espcially for early September.
Some more days of above average melt likely.

But not much sign of high run-off in the SMB data,

I also attach for interest a gif on Freya Glascier (NE Greenland) 4.4 mb.

click gifs to start - run 5 times

[gerontocrat]

JPL have produced Greenland Ice Mass change data from JPL to July 22.

1st graph attached links that data to SMB change from DMI from Oct 2018.

2nd graph is GRACE data from 2002 to July 22.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 5th Sep

Another day of very high melt, especially for early September.
Some more days of above average melt likely.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 8th Sep

Although the peak has passed, another day of above average melt
Some more days of above average melt possible, perhaps prolonging the melt season as far as mid-September.

SMB gain so far a bit below average. The Accumulated SMB anomaly graph shows the influence of melt on run-off in early September

gif runs five times, click to start
click images to enlarge

[Tor Bejnar]

How unusual is the 'new fiscal year' melt?  It is way way above 'average' but how about comparing it to other extreme years?  (I recall that some graphs showing melt indicate the historical range, less the two most extreme year's data [both high and low], or something like that (i.e., not 2 sigma as is common).

[gerontocrat]

How unusual is the 'new fiscal year' melt?  It is way way above 'average' but how about comparing it to other extreme years?  (I recall that some graphs showing melt indicate the historical range, less the two most extreme year's data [both high and low], or something like that (i.e., not 2 sigma as is common).

The DMI graphs exclude the two most extreme year's data [both high and low]

DMI (about a year or 2 ago) to publish daily data of SMB change and melt %, starting from Sept 2017 (SMB data) and Feb 2018 (Melt data). These can be found at http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

However, they have not published the data of the long-term averages of daily SMB change and daily melt, which is a drag.

As regards the early September melt, looking at the DMI graph the Sept to Sept 6 look to be records for the day of the year. From my data early Sept 2021 managed a max of 13%, in the earlier years 6% to 8%.

Definitely early Sept 2022 has been an event worth noting, building on the high but not extreme values of last year.

AND..
NSIDC at  http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/greenland-today-data-and-analysis-tools/ produced a spreadsheet of daily melt data which dates back to 1978-79, which I used to downlaoad.

However, it is held on the net at an ftp address, so I have only got data to 2020. (I have asked NSIDC for help on this) -

I attach 2 graphs from this data - UP TO 2020. From these it still looks as if the September 2-7 2022 data is a record-breaker by far.

AND...
Here is the Graph from Greenland Today which also make it obvious that 2022 is a record

[Tor Bejnar]

Definitely early Sept 2022 has been an event worth noting, building on the high but not extreme values of last year.

Thanks for checking, geront!  (Or should it be Mr. O'Crat? )

[sidd]

NASA: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150324/late-season-melting-in-greenland

sidd

[Tor Bejnar]

image from that NASA publication. (Thanks sidd.)

Greenland did have a similar melt event a week earlier, once.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 10th Sept

Above average daily melt continues.

SMB gain to date a wee bit below average

click gif to start, runs 5 times.
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 13th Sept

Above average daily melt continues, and looks like continuing for a few days more

SMB gain to date a wee bit below average. The cumulative SMB image shows above average melt loss on the coast.

[gerontocrat]

And this is what the data looks from NSIDC's Greenland today data

NSIDC have now given me the direct link to the spreadsheet which is  https://daacdata.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0755_nrt_greenland_melt_v1/

Notev you have to sign up to NASA's EarthData - which is easy

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 16th Sept

Above average daily melt continues, and looks like continuing for maybe 2 days more

SMB gain to date a wee bit below average. The cumulative SMB anomaly image shows well above average melt loss on the coast.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 18th Sept

September continues to be an unusually energetic month

Well above average daily melt continues, but looks like falling back after today. However there may be another melt spike from 23rd to 25th September.

SMB gain to date rises to average due to high precipitation in the last few days. The cumulative SMB anomaly image shows well above average melt loss on the coast.

[gerontocrat]

DMI not updated for the last 2 days so here is melt using data from NSIDC's Greenland Today
Data as at 20th Sept

September continues to be an unusually energetic month

Well above average daily melt continues. There may be another melt spike from Friday 23rd to Tuesday 27th September as the remains of hurricane Fiona push into Baffin Bay.

EDIT: The record maximum cumulative melt in September to October before 2022 was in 2010, which at 2 million km2 compares with previous maxima in 2002 and 2003 at 1.6 and 1,9 million km2. At 3.2 million 2022 cumulative area melt to 20 September is definitely remarkable, with some more melt to come.

ANOTHER EDIT:- This late melt in 2022 is after what was a somewhat feeble melt season up to the end of August (see last image)

This is likely to include signicant rainfall on the South & West coasts and snow at higher altitudes.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 22nd Sept

DMI updated after 2 days asleep.

September continues to be an unusually energetic month

Well above average daily melt continued although at a lower rate. However, thanks to the remains of Hurricane Fiona, it looks like another melt spike from today to the 25th or 26th September.

SMB gain to date rises to average. The cumulative SMB anomaly image shows well above average melt loss on the coast.

click images to enlarge
click gif to start - runs 5 times

[gerontocrat]

Freya Glacier

It has snowed.
It is cold

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 23rd Sept

September continues to be an unusually energetic month

Well above average daily melt continued although at a lower rate. The remains of Hurricane Fiona look like continuing to cause another melt spike up to the 25th or 26th September.

SMB gain on this day very high. Precipitation included rain on the SW coast, with more to come.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 24th Sept

September continues to be an unusually energetic month

Well above average daily melt continued. The remains of Hurricane Fiona look like continuing to cause melt spikes up to the 26th or 27th September.

SMB gain on this day extremely high. Precipitation included rain on the South coast, with more to come.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 25th September

Somewhat above average melt on the 25th Sept

But today, the 26th, looks like the last burst of really significant melt as Fiona fades into history.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 26th September

Daily melt rose to 12% - looks like the last spike in this unique September

Accumulated SMB continues above average

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 1st October

Daily melt After a last spike on the 26 September when melt rose to 12%, daily melt has dropped to minimal.  Forecast Greenalnd temperatures indicate that this unique September event is finished.

Accumulated SMB continues well above average. Note the considerable -ve anomaly on the coastal fringe.

click images to enlarge,
click gif to start - runs 5 times.

[gerontocrat]

If you need convincing that Greenland melt in September was a truly unique event here are graphs derived from NSIDC's Greenland Today data.

The question remains - is it a one-off outlier (as I regard the 2012 Greenland and Arctic melt), or is it the shape of things to come?

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 8th October

Daily melt After a last spike on the 26 September when melt rose to 12%, daily melt has dropped to minimal.  However, for the last few days the GFS forecast of Greenland temperatures indicate unusual warmth in Southern Greenland starting next Saturday 15th Oct through to the following Tuesday that might produce another burp in melt...

Accumulated SMB continues above average. Note the considerable -ve anomaly on the coastal fringe.

click images to enlarge,

[gerontocrat]

Extract from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/10/weather-tracker-uk-northern-europe-forecast-storms

Meanwhile Greenland could face a another sharp rise in temperatures this week to more than 20C above average for the time of year. Although it will generally remain below 0C, some pockets of the ice sheet could rise above this, causing further melt.

GFS seems to agree

[gerontocrat]

Extract from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/10/weather-tracker-uk-northern-europe-forecast-storms

Meanwhile Greenland could face a another sharp rise in temperatures this week to more than 20C above average for the time of year. Although it will generally remain below 0C, some pockets of the ice sheet could rise above this, causing further melt.

GFS seems to agree

Furher melt did not happen Zero melt in the last 7 days. Perhaps some melt over the next few days.

Accumulated SMB remains above average

click images to enlarge

[Tor Bejnar]

I'm not surprised but find it interesting that while mass loss for the current fiscal year is triple the long-term average (at this time), the mass balance is just above average, too.  I presume this means some of the events associated with mass loss included rain as an agent for melt, and that at higher elevations this rain either added to the mass (it all froze on/near the surface) or fell as snow. (And there is lots more high elevation area than low elevation area.) Do I have this about right?

[gerontocrat]

Hullo Tor,

The ACC-SMB graph above seems to confirm that view -ve anomaly on the coast, +ve anomaly on higher ground / interior

gero

[oren]

Yes Tor, I see it this way too.

[gerontocrat]

GFZ - Helmholtz Cenre, Potsdam has also produced Arctic Ice Sheet Mass Loss Data from GRACE/GRACE-FO data to July 22. It is also by basins (see 1st image for map) and I group them into regions.

The greatest mass loss continues in basin 306 in the SouthWest. Mass loss in the East is much slower.

Overall, in the last 2+ years after a massive loss in 2019 mass loss has been relatively slow.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 29 Oct 2022

Accumulated SMB is now well above average, +ve anomalies concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland

Melt had a final small blip on 28th October. A spectacular September and October now over.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

A final look at the analyses of the September / October melt from NSIDC Greenland Today data.

The cumulative melt in September / October was just over 4 million km2 (the ice sheet area is 1.7 million Km2). This was twice the amount of the previous record high in 2010, and more than 5 times the 2010's average.

But when looking at the entire melt from  April to October, 2022 cumulative melt at just under 22.5 million km2was well below the 2010s average, and less than half that of the record high of 47.5 million km2 in 2012.

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 5 November 2022

Accumulated SMB is now very much above average, impressive +ve anomalies concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland

Melt had a final small blip on 28th October.
A spectacular September and October now over, so the last image is a gif to remind you- runs only once  (you can always download it and look at it at your leisure)

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

GFZ - Helmholtz Cenre, Potsdam has produced Arctic Ice Sheet Mass Loss Data from GRACE/GRACE-FO data to August 22. It is also by basins (see 1st image for map) and I group them into regions.

The greatest mass loss continues in basin 306 in the SouthWest. Mass loss in the East is much slower.

Overall, in the last 2+ years after a massive loss in 2019 mass loss has been relatively slow. This year also saw higher than average SMB gains, which would counteract calving and melting of marine-terminating glaciers.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 14 November 2022

Accumulated SMB is now extremely above average, the DMI graph showing it reaching towards record territory. Impressive +ve anomalies concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland

On this day SMB gain high, and for a change concentrated on the East coast

November melt continues at basically zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 21 November 2022

Accumulated SMB is now extremely above average, the DMI graph showing it reaching towards record territory. Impressive +ve anomalies concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumuulative gain is 46GT, 25% above the previous 5 years average.

November melt continues at basically zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 2 December 2022

Accumulated SMB remains extremely above average, the DMI graph showing it staying on the edge of record territory. Impressive +ve anomalies concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumuulative gain is 261GT, which is 49GT (23%) above the previous 5 years average of 212GT.

Melt continues at basically zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 14 December 2022

Accumulated SMB remains well above average, the DMI graph showing December daily SMB gains moderated a bit. Impressive +ve anomalies concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumuulative gain is 286GT, which is 50GT (21%) above the previous 5 years average of 236GT.

Melt continues at basically zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 23 December 2022

Accumulated SMB remains well above average, the DMI graph showing recent daily SMB gains moderated considerably. Impressive +ve anomalies concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 294GT, which is 46GT (19%) above the previous 5 years average of 248GT.

Melt continues at basically zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 31 December 2022

Accumulated SMB remains above average, the DMI graph showing recent daily SMB gains have been very low rfecently, due to intense high pressure over Greenland. The +ve anomalies are concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 298GT, which is 37GT (14%) above the previous 5 years average of 261GT.

Melt continues at basically zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 120January 2023

Accumulated SMB remains above average, the DMI graph showing recent daily SMB gains have been mostly low recently, due to high pressure over Greenland. The +ve anomalies are concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 312GT, which is 20GT (7%) above the previous 5 years average of 292GT.

Melt continues at zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 22 January 2023

Accumulated SMB remains a bit above average, the DMI graph showing recent daily SMB gains have been mostly low recently. The +ve anomalies are concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 329GT, which is 16GT (5%) above the previous 5 years average of 292GT.

Melt continues at zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 1 February 2023 - very little to report

Accumulated SMB remains a bit above average, the DMI graph showing recent daily SMB gains have been mostly around average recently. The +ve anomalies are concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 349GT, which is 21GT (6%) above the previous 5 years average of 328GT.

Melt continues at zero.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 22 February 2023 - once again very little to report

Accumulated SMB very close to the long-term average, the DMI graph showing recent daily SMB gains have been mostly around average recently. The +ve anomalies are concentrated in the West, with -ve anomalies on the coast mainly in Southern Greenland.

Current SMB cumulative gain is 393GT, which is 17GT (5%) above the previous 5 years average of 376GT.

Melt continues at zero.
We might see a small melt tomorrow and / or next Tuesday as warmth briefly invades southern Baffin Bay.
 
click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Data as at 24 February 2023 - An Event to report on this day

On 24th February daily SMB gain was over 11 Gigatons, the highest daily gain this freezing season. Concentrated in the SE coastal region, it may have included some rain on snow at very low altitudes.

It was enough to give a strong spike in the SMB cumulative gain graph

Current SMB cumulative gain is 407GT, which is 17GT (7%) above the previous 5 years average of 381GT.

Melt On 24th Feb there was also a minuscule melt on the West Coast, but melt basically continues at zero.

GFS predicts some strong low pressure systems from the South bringing strong precipitation and well above average warmth to Southern Greenland periodically over the next few days, that could involve rain on snow and sufficient warmth for measurable melt from time to time

Perhaps a lively end of February in contrast to the boringly average in place since the astonishing melt events in Sept '22.  Has the Major SSW currently underway have a role to play in this?
 
click images to enlarge