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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #800 on: August 01, 2023, 05:54:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 31st, 2023:
       6,689,875 km2, a drop of -89,256 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #801 on: August 01, 2023, 07:45:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,689,875 KM2 as at 31-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 89k, 29 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,434 k, which is 366 k, 4.7% less than the 10 year average of 7,800 k.

- Extent is 13th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  26 k MORE than 2022,
- Extent is  392 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  933 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  734 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  252 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  593 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  245 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 79.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 45 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.65 million km2, 1.47 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 14th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #802 on: August 01, 2023, 10:06:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: Another month gone so here is a look at July data.

The July 2023 monthly average sea ice extent was 7.94 million km2, 13th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 0.73 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.01 million km2 below the July 2022 average. July was a below average sea ice extent loss month.

If daily sea ice extent gains and losses are at the average of the last 10 years for the remaining 5 months of the year, 2023 daily average extent for the year will be 10.19 million km2, 12th lowest in the 45 year satellite record, 0.44 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and equal to  the 2022 average.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2023, 11:55:31 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #803 on: August 01, 2023, 10:22:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:

The 365 day trailing average on July 31 ended up unchanged from July 1 at 10.121 million km2, 0.45 million km2 above the longterm linear trend, and 0.49 million km2 above the record low in March 2021.

Average sea ice extent loses and gains from now would see the average increase to  the end of the year but then followed bynot much change in 2024.

July 2023 was yet another month of lacklustre sea ice loss
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #804 on: August 01, 2023, 05:33:35 PM »
One day data in line with the poll....

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE Extent (one day data):  6,817,000 KM2 as at 31-Jul-2023

- Extent loss on this day 38k, 31 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 69k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,829 k, which is 341 k, 4.2% less than the 10 year average of 8,170 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Extent is  73 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  783 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  140 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  449 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  142 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 79.5% of Extent losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 41 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 4.71 million km2, 1.37 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 3.39 million km2, and 13th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #805 on: August 01, 2023, 06:29:00 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,488,989 KM2 as at 31-Jul-2023

- Area loss on this day 37k, 30 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,444 k, which is 7 k, 0.1% less than the 10 year average of 8,451 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  488 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  630 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  217 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  404 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  56 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.1% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 41 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.01 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #806 on: August 02, 2023, 06:05:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 1st, 2023:
       6,617,290 km2, a drop of -72,585 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #807 on: August 02, 2023, 08:11:27 PM »
Power cut today.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,617,290 KM2 as at 01-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 73k, 5 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,506 k, which is 361 k, 4.6% less than the 10 year average of 7,867 k.

- Extent is 12th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  32 k MORE than 2022,
- Extent is  367 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  899 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  712 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  295 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  535 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  236 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 79.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 44 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.64 million km2, 1.46 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 14th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #808 on: August 02, 2023, 09:07:47 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,453,196 KM2 as at 01-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 36k, 32 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,480 k, which is 39 k, 0.5% less than the 10 year average of 8,519 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  447 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  658 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  295 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  483 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  19 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.8% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 40 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.04 million km2, 0.79 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 7th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #809 on: August 03, 2023, 06:02:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 2nd, 2023:
       6,580,739 km2, a drop of -36,551 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #810 on: August 03, 2023, 11:56:44 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,580,739 KM2 as at 02-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 37k, 34 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 71k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,543 k, which is 396 k, 5.0% less than the 10 year average of 7,939 k.

- Extent is 14th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  67 k MORE than 2022,
- Extent is  365 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  911 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  728 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  380 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  547 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  270 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 80.6% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 43 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.68 million km2, 1.50 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 14th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #811 on: August 03, 2023, 06:47:29 PM »
Another well below average sea ice area and extent loss on this day. With on average over 85% of sea ice loss completed and only around 40 days to the minimum, the window for any upsurge in sea ice losses is rapidly closing.

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,433,431 KM2 as at 02-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 20k, 50 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,500 k, which is 90 k, 1.0% less than the 10 year average of 8,589 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  400 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  690 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  348 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  572 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  36 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 86.5% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 39 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.09 million km2, 0.84 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 8th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kiwichick16

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #812 on: August 03, 2023, 10:44:14 PM »
@  gero......  same applies to the other pole......   re  gains in sea ice before the spring flaw

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #813 on: August 04, 2023, 06:05:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 3rd, 2023:
       6,519,798 km2, a drop of -60,941 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #814 on: August 04, 2023, 08:46:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,519,798 KM2 as at 03-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 61k, 20 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 81k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,604 k, which is 416 k, 5.2% less than the 10 year average of 8,019 k.

- Extent is 14th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  87 k MORE than 2022,
- Extent is  375 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  907 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  734 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  435 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  609 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  294 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 81.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 42 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.70 million km2, 1.52 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 14th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #815 on: August 04, 2023, 03:09:02 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,377,329 KM2 as at 03-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 56k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,556 k, which is 103 k, 1.2% less than the 10 year average of 8,659 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  395 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  673 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  361 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  618 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  51 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 87.2% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 38 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.10 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 9th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #816 on: August 05, 2023, 06:15:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 4th, 2023:
       6,403,519 km2, a century break drop of -116,279 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #817 on: August 05, 2023, 09:04:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,403,519 KM2 as at 04-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 116k, 40 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 76k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,720 k, which is 375 k, 4.6% less than the 10 year average of 8,095 k.

- Extent is 12th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  39 k MORE than 2022,
- Extent is  389 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  849 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  684 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  366 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  615 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  252 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 82.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 41 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.65 million km2, 1.48 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 14th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #818 on: August 05, 2023, 01:33:21 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,329,355 KM2 as at 04-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 48k, 15 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,604 k, which is 118 k, 1.3% less than the 10 year average of 8,722 k.

- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  374 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  671 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  353 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  650 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  65 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 87.8% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 37 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.12 million km2, 0.87 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 9th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #819 on: August 06, 2023, 06:06:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 5th, 2023:
       6,241,358 km2, a century break drop of -162,161 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #820 on: August 06, 2023, 12:16:27 PM »
On this day at 162k the largest one day sea ice extent drop this year, and 2 century breaks in a row. But will we see a third (or more) century break in a row and/or consistently above average daily losses to make a real difference to the final outcome for this year's minimum?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,241,358 KM2 as at 05-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 162k, 95 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,882 k, which is 281 k, 3.4% less than the 10 year average of 8,163 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  71 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  340 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  739 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  629 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  279 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  593 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  163 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 82.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 40 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.56 million km2, 1.38 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #821 on: August 06, 2023, 02:18:06 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,253,652 KM2 as at 05-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 76k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,680 k, which is 105 k, 1.2% less than the 10 year average of 8,785 k.

- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  369 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  637 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  327 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  645 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  52 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 88.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 36 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.11 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 9th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #822 on: August 07, 2023, 05:53:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2023:
       6,127,957 km2, a century break drop of -113,401 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #823 on: August 07, 2023, 06:33:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,127,957 KM2 as at 06-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 113k, 53 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,996 k, which is 227 k, 2.8% less than the 10 year average of 8,223 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  136 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  270 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  639 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  616 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  259 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  634 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  128 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 83.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 39 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.51 million km2, 1.33 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #824 on: August 07, 2023, 08:18:20 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,151,361 KM2 as at 06-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 102k, 38 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,782 k, which is 67 k, 0.8% less than the 10 year average of 8,849 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  373 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  574 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  288 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  618 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  8 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 89.1% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 35 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.07 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 8th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kiwichick16

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #825 on: August 07, 2023, 10:42:30 PM »
Flirting with the 2010's average again

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #826 on: August 08, 2023, 05:46:52 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 7th, 2023:
       6,065,186 km2, a drop of -62,771 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 08, 2023, 07:50:19 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #827 on: August 08, 2023, 08:22:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,065,186 KM2 as at 07-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 63k, 1 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,058 k, which is 228 k, 2.8% less than the 10 year average of 8,286 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  159 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  188 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  606 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  649 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  280 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  690 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  144 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 84.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 38 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.51 million km2, 1.33 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #828 on: August 08, 2023, 01:29:50 PM »
Sea ice area loss has certainly accelerated, especially in the High Arctic. The question as usual - is it a blip or will it be sustained? The one-day data from Nico Sun within the hour will give us a clue.

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,029,027 KM2 as at 07-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 122k, 68 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,904 k, which is 1 k, 0.0% more than the 10 year average of 8,903 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  418 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  482 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  234 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  600 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  60 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 89.6% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 34 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 3.00 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #829 on: August 08, 2023, 01:39:20 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average): some more

The sea ice loss in the High Arctic on this day was 111k, of which approaching 50% was in the Central Arctic region.
The losses in the Peripheral **Regions have increased slightly.

**NSIDC calls them regions, not seas. This seems to be because the boundaries chosen by NSIDC for their tables often do not compately corresopond to offiocal boundaries of named seas. For example, Russia seems to claim that the Kara, Laptev, and ESS (and the Chukchi?) seas extend as far as the North Pole.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #830 on: August 08, 2023, 01:51:14 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average): High Arctic Regional Graphs

In this and the next post I show the graphs of sea ice area for the 7 NSIDC regions of the High Arctic, starting with the NSIDC map of the regional boundaries compared to those that were used by Wipneus and are now closely followed by Steven's analysyes and AMSR2 data and images..

No commentary
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #831 on: August 08, 2023, 01:52:38 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average): more High Arctic Regional Graphs
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #832 on: August 08, 2023, 02:09:56 PM »
Nico Sun's one-day sea ice rea graph from NSIDC data shows a reduced daily loss of 87k, but still well above average for this time of year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #833 on: August 09, 2023, 06:33:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 8th, 2023:
       6,032,189 km2, a drop of -32,997 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #834 on: August 09, 2023, 07:01:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,032,189 KM2 as at 08-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 33k, 37 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,091 k, which is 265 k, 3.2% less than the 10 year average of 8,357 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  154 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  189 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  641 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  698 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  326 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  840 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  200 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 84.9% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 37 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.55 million km2, 1.37 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #835 on: August 09, 2023, 01:28:07 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,945,372 KM2 as at 08-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 84k, 33 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 8,988 k, which is 34 k, 0.4% more than the 10 year average of 8,954 k.

- Area is at position #6 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  437 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  429 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  209 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  609 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  94 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 90.2% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 33 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.97 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #836 on: August 10, 2023, 07:07:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 9th, 2023:
       5,960,583 km2, a drop of -71,606 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #837 on: August 10, 2023, 09:25:11 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,960,583 KM2 as at 09-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 72k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 74k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,163 k, which is 268 k, 3.2% less than the 10 year average of 8,431 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  154 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  179 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  663 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  721 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  304 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  925 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  210 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.6% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 36 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.55 million km2, 1.37 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #838 on: August 10, 2023, 05:50:13 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,880,849 KM2 as at 09-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 65k, 20 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 45k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,052 k, which is 53 k, 0.6% more than the 10 year average of 8,999 k.

- Area is at position #6 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  455 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  381 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  208 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  637 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  107 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 90.6% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 32 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.95 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 5th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #839 on: August 11, 2023, 12:03:35 AM »
As most are looking at the 7 regions in the High Arctic, here is an update.
High Arctic sea ice area Sept minimum now projected to be 4th lowest in the satellite record.

NSIDC  HIGH ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,607,616 KM2 as at 09-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 58k, 19 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 5,108 k, which is 294 k, 6.1% more than the 10 year average of 4,814 k.

- Area is at position #6 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  497 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  318 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  109 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  608 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  125 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 84.6% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 33 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining High Arctic Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.73 million km2, 0.67 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kiwichick16

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #840 on: August 11, 2023, 03:07:51 AM »
@  gero  ...are the high sea / air temps going to have an effect on this years melt?

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #841 on: August 11, 2023, 06:37:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 10th, 2023:
       5,872,588 km2, a drop of -87,995 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #842 on: August 11, 2023, 07:51:02 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,872,588 KM2 as at 10-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 88k, 19 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 69k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,251 k, which is 249 k, 2.9% less than the 10 year average of 8,500 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  170 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  116 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  611 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  766 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  291 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  929 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  204 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 86.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 35 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.53 million km2, 1.35 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 12th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #843 on: August 11, 2023, 08:27:49 AM »
@  gero  ...are the high sea / air temps going to have an effect on this years melt?
Will we see a warm late summer in the Arctic and a warmer than average Arctic winter (El Nino) ?
Will melt accelerate and keep going longer?
Will refreeze be late and slow?

If I could answer these questions I would get a Nobel prize, but all I can say is High Arctic daily sea ice area losses have been mostly above average in the last month.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #844 on: August 11, 2023, 03:17:02 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,832,707 KM2 as at 10-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 48k, 4 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,101 k, which is 57 k, 0.6% more than the 10 year average of 9,043 k.

- Area is at position #6 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  474 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  354 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  201 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  664 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  108 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 91.1% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 31 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.94 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 5th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Renerpho

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #845 on: August 11, 2023, 04:16:37 PM »
If I could answer these questions I would get a Nobel prize

I can answer those questions. I will even be right about half of the time.

People have answers, alright. It's just they're all different.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

kiwichick16

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #846 on: August 11, 2023, 04:19:44 PM »
@  gero ...... a Nobel prize  ...... now theres a thought !

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #847 on: August 12, 2023, 06:36:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 11th, 2023:
       5,792,283 km2, a drop of -80,305 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #848 on: August 12, 2023, 07:29:08 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,792,283 KM2 as at 11-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 80k, 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 66k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,331 k, which is 235 k, 2.7% less than the 10 year average of 8,566 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  203 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  73 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  561 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  792 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  298 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  904 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  195 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 87.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 34 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.51 million km2, 1.34 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 11th lowest in the satellite record
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #849 on: August 12, 2023, 02:54:30 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,803,298 KM2 as at 11-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 29k, 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,130 k, which is 50 k, 0.5% more than the 10 year average of 9,080 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  468 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  343 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  172 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  677 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  95 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 91.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 30 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.95 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 5th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)